The current environment
Hour 1:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1-2: We open the Show discussing Syria with Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity.
- Segment 3: Valentin Schmid of The Epoch Times discusses the current Chinese slowdown.
- Segment 4: Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst for The Lindsey Group, discusses the employment numbers published yesterday.
- Segment 5: A new guest Steve Holden runs Coply Fund Research, a research firm focused on Emerging Markets. He has some comments on shifts in investment over the past couple years.
- Segment 6: Chris Temple from the National Investor joins us to chat about the current environment of financial assets moving up and commodities moving down.
- Segment 7: Avi Gilburt of The Elliot Wave Trader says no meaning worries coming our way for a while.
- Segment 8: We discuss a great source of investing information called Common Stock Warrants with its Founder Dudley Pierce Baker.
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Great effort…this is the Establishment’s worst nightmare. That people would throw off the scripted left vs. right debate/regimen and join forces to realize that those who control the national government are the common enemy of us all.
I mean the Occupy Peace, of course…don’t know why my answer ended up below Peter, Paul and Mary
where are all the folks from the 60’s peace movement?
#1 Chris
look up new Film on 9/11 by Massimo Mazzucco…it was recently shown at the Senior Center here.
Chris, I remember seeing a graph a few years ago which had laid out various political parties in a left right configuration, but the chart also had a vertical positioning indicating intent of size and authoritarian nature of said parties. Was very intersting and would do people well to consider the up down characteristics in place of left vs right imo 😉
Ironically when you put the left right nonsense aside more often than not so called left /right leaning individuals have FAR more in common than those on the up down axis (authoritarian / libertarian )
I remember what you’re referring to…as I recall, it was used by the Libertarian Party.
I’ve often referred to Nader’s book “Unstoppable” in this regard, too.
TEMPLE
Are you a shill? Who do you work for?
I promise you, Bent nail, Chris is not a shill for anyone.
What exactly is it that you object to Bentnail? IMO, Temple got it exactly right.
We get lots of innuendo from you suggesting that you have some special insight into the forces that run the world, but you’re alway thin on details. What’s YOUR angle?
A shill for who/what?
BIG AL
Thanks … I trust you!!! However, he is falling for the bogus occupy peace nonsense that Celente is pushing.
GH
In a nutshell … The entire patriot movement, tea party, whistleblowers, etc. is a sham!!! People are foolishly walking into a trap, yet believe that they know what’s really going on. I’ll leave he rest up to you to figure out.
LOL. Zero interesting information, once again. You’re good at this.
Right on bro!
Thanks Chris.
BOBBY
Thanks for the PROOF that Paul Craig Roberts, Gerald Celente, etc. are not who they claim to be. I appreciate the link.
Bentnail, what are you talking about?
What proof PCR Celente are not who they claim to be?
Do you think no one looks at Bobbys link?
Why are you asking Temple if he is shill? Who he works for?
Are you doing crack?
Thanks bb
BB
Nope … Not doing crack. I’m just sick and tired of watching people walking into a New Age trap and thinking that they actually know how the world works around them – the irony is that those who think they are in the light are stuck in the darkest closet on earth. It just troubles me how very few people ask logical question nowadays – it is far easier for them to let the Celente’s do the thinking for them. BARF!!!
PCR is not who he claims to be? Celente? C.Temple a shill?
There is something wrong with your thinking Bentnail.
BB
Or yours if you actually believe that Celente is on your side.
I went over this Bobby. PLEASE GIVE US YOUR OPINION.
Thank you,
Al
Al, after the HH experience, you might need to take a close look at Bentnail, maybe that wasn’t bentnail even posting, but those comments are pretty “trollish”, and the two of them do have a common denominator.
Anyway, ya might wanna watch it doesn’t get carried away.
Done bb and thank you, my friend.
Oh brother!!!
Al, I think these guys are legit. Celente is a bit off the wall and always has been, but he has made many correct predictions in the past and I believe he is genuine in his quest to end meaningless wars. Roberts, Nader, et al, are all good people seeking an end to senseless wars and killing for the sake of the military industrial complex. I do not know why this movement is not taking off.
Thanks Bobby.
At this point in time, I am very interested in it. I need a bit more study time though!
You are more than welcome, Skeeta!
Any thoughts on this perspective on oil? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VB0fyVNay_k
Cory – great questions you posed to Avi – it’s ALWAYS we can go up, but if we don’t we will go down. These newsletter guys speak with such confidence and use targets that go out 2 decimal points to add credence to the call. Bottom line is that opinions are like %#holes, everyone has one, but when it comes to newsletter writers, opinions are like elbows and they have two – up or down, hence they are NEVER wrong. But in the real world you have to lean long or short, its difficult to do both without some sophisticated option trade.
+1
Funny too that if things do not go the way that they expect, they blame manipulation.
Exactly. Managing real money in the real world is different than newsletter writing – sometimes people are right but for the wrong reason. Someone up 15% in a trade because they said the bottom was in doesn’t make them right in their call that the bottom is in. Period. They are two completely separate things. A big part of doing this daily is having a premise, knowing the odds and acting accordingly. Savage can’t just admit he has been totally wrong on this call (two weeks ago 99% sure the gold bear was over, now we are retesting the lows “as expected”). There is no shame in admitting to a bad call, the shame is in the arrogance of throwing out “I AM THE ONLY ONE THAT GETS THIS RIGHT” or giving opposing views grief because “I AM UP 15%.” Or worse, Gilbert playing both sides of the market with his ‘call”.
Terry, its been like that in the ‘bug camp for at least 5 years now.
Both of them are damned fools.
Avi is really no different than Gary. You could go blue trying to tell them anything that’s not in their fixed program and it would make no difference at all. Best advice is to just do your own homework and figure it out for yourself.
Most who come here have the instincts to make a killing.
They just have not learned to *trust* themselves yet.
So they rely on others.
I feel like a broken record. I have said “DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH” and rely on yourself not others so many times in the past.
Excellent comment Al. Do your own research. You have it in your own heart to know which is the right and which is the wrong decision.
Thanks Smartman
Thanks Al. Hope you are having a great weekend.
So far wonderful and aside from the Forum mindless by design. To much stuff going on in our lives that we need a break from.
Thank you Mr Smythe. In most cases I wouldl agree. This definitely does not include those on our site.
I think you are partly right Al – you, Chris and Doc have all admitted to bad calls. When Gary is wrong it’s ‘manipulation’ or ‘secret QE’ and Avi is never wrong because he surrounds his calls with “it will go much lower, but could bounce first” which is always right 😉
Terry I really think that you are misinterpreting Gary and here is why: If you define “manipulation” as taking advantage of a market because you do have the ability to do so then that is an action that is unpredictable. I happen to agree with Gary on that one. I have never heard him call “QE” secretive. Perhaps in the context of letting out more money without announcing it one could call the action secretive.
Regarding Avi, I cannot comment on what he says because I am not familiar with his methodology.
You obviously are pretty critical of Gary and that is fine. For the record neither I, Cory, Doc Rick or Chris have any problem with him at all. (He actually advised me to take an action that gave me a 400% profit on a short position.) If we do not agree with him we simply say that “we do not agree”. We completely keep our emotions out of it.
So you are saying that after 40 plus years in this business you could not have done just as well without Gary’s advice? That’s hilarious Al. Maybe you are forgetting that just a few weeks back that same guy said he had 99% confidence we were starting a new bull market it precious metals.
I can link the shows if you have forgotten.
Since then we have seen gold and silver prices PLUMMET and threaten to drop to new lows. But you say he helped you score a 400% gain on a trade. I guess that advice is hit and miss.
In a nutshell, YOU made the decision to short the S&P with your own knowledge. Gary did not help you at all because the truth is you ignore most of what he says and in the end only act on your own information.
So what I am saying is that you already have the natural ability. Nobody else gets any credit (unless you want to pay them a commission or owe them a favour!)
I have to ask one question, and it is a question.
What if a bull market starts within let’s say 60 days?
Then I will give you one answer….it will not sustain itself because it is not the right time. I cannot disagree that gold will enter a bull again (one day)….but it will not start in the next 60 days.
That is just going to be a seasonal bounce at best.
But be my guest. Buy it for all it’s worth. Maybe you will be correct. (but I doubt it very strongly).
A bird listener, sure Gary gets it wrong SOMETIMES, but between his risk management and the larger number and size of wins, you’re WAY off base.
Neither YOU, nor any other individual here made the call and went full leverage into the sms at the tail of that drop last Oct.
I still remember Rick s SMUG laugh off of such a suggestion. Thanks to Gary s call I and others managed to take huge amounts of dosh of the shorts (Rick included ;). Gary did the same thing after the august selling. Again with the run up in Sept Oct in pms. Put your calls on the line and money where your mouth is n we ll see if you do better.
nobody knows when the next bull will begin, however we must first bottom with a capitulation. This could happen in 60 days or 6 years, would i like to see it tomorrow, you bet, but I do not believe the time has come yet. Been saying for many years, we need to go below 1000, maybe even 750 before this happens.
$750 Bobby?
Jay, I was short since October 16th and caught most of the October / November decline. You don’t know what you are talking about.
Al. I am not calling for 750, I am just aware that it is possible according to many like Armstrong. The capitulation will be swift and deep. The longer it takes to break down, the deeper it will be according to all I have read and understand.
Can’t disagree Bobby!
It is quite clear to me that anyone that can post as “Trader Terry” has is really not likely a “trader,” or simply does not understand markets. Financial markets are NOT linear in nature. For this reason, one must ALWAYS approach the market based upon “if/then” perspectives. But, first, you identify your primary focus based upon your detailed analysis of the market and then you trade that direction.
This is what we did at the start of October. We were looking long on the pullback to 1893 with a target of 2000-2040. We noted at the time that IF 1893 holds as support, THEN the market was likely targeting 2000-2040. A break of 1893SPX, with follow through below 1880SPX would have invalidated this IF/THEN proposition which would then tell us to stop out of the trade. We were risking 13 points for a trade of 100+.
Once we reached our target, we then set ourselves another set of IF/THEN statements. IF the market remains below 2047SPX, we are going down to the 1820SPX region next. However, IF the market breaks out over 2047, then our next target was going to be 2077SPX. The market invalidated the downside primary set up when it moved over 2047, caused us to stop out of short positions with a relatively small loss, and then caused us to look to the long side to 2077SPX.
After we reached our next target at 2077SPX (again the market stopped and pulled back at our target), we set up another IF/THEN proposition. IF the market was able to hold over 2047SPX on a pullback from 2077, THEN our next target was 2117SPX. And this past week, we came within 50 cents of our next target.
IF you are VERY simplistic and don’t understand the nature of non-linear markets, then you view these IF/THEN propositions as “the market can either go up or down.” That is quite simple minded and a foolish characterization of this type of analysis.
Rather, we provide parameters to tell you when we are wrong and when we are right. And, when we are wrong in our primary expectation, we have an alternative plan we need to put into action immediately so we minimize the loss and then are able to get back on the right side of the market quickly. Anyone that approaches the markets any differently and without such a plan thought out BEFORE they put their money to use only sets themselves up to blow up their account.
As the perfect example, I noted what we did between 2040SPX and 2047SPX. We stopped out of a short attempt, and then have been trading the long side since. So, effectively, we caught over 100 points from the October low, attempted a short, which stopped us out for a small loss, and have been focused on the long side ever since – until support breaks. Is this not the way of a TRUE trader???
And, again, for the upcoming week, IF the market does not break 2075SPX, then we are next targeting 2127SPX, and 2142SPX. But, IF the market sees a sustained break of 2075SPX, then we are likely targeting 2000-2020SPX. This is EXACTLY what I said in this weekend’s show. Again, is this not the way of a TRUE trader? And, anyone who can say “no,” really has no clue about trading, or has no idea how to trade safely with appropriate risk management rules.
This is NOT rocket science folks. But, one must be able to identify these turnings points and know what to do at each juncture.
So, again, anyone who characterizes what I said on this week’s show as saying the “market will either go up or down” is acting quite disingenuously and simple minded, or they simply don’t understand the nature of non-linear markets and lose a lot of money quite often. Not sure which classification is appropriate for “Trader Terry.”
Oh . . and btw – just because I write a “newsletter,” does not change ANY of the facts I have stated above.
Furthermore, how do you think I came to “publish” my analysis? Well, let me tell you. I used to be a National Director and high ranking partner in a major national firm, and I was only 35 at this time. I had always traded as well, but my primary vocation was as a lawyer and an accountant. When my late wife took ill after developing a rare form of cancer 11 days after our youngest of 4 children was born, I quit my primary vocation to be able to care for her and our 4 children. I began to trade “full time” out of her hospital rooms when I sat there all day with her for days on end, for weeks on end. I developed a following in the various chat rooms I posted to due to the accuracy of my market calls. And as my following grew it developed into what we now know as Elliottwavetrader.net due to my being pushed to teach those interested how I do what I do. We now have well over 2000 members to our trading room since opening 4 years ago.
So, if you have an issue with my writing a “newsletter,” and think that it detracts from my accuracy, then that is YOUR issue. I take pride in what I do, and if I was not able to help the thousands we have been helping, then I would not be doing it. And, when I get people saying the following to me week after week, then I know it has all been worth it and will continue:
“I have been a member of this site since January 2013, which was before Stock Waves became an official subscription service. Before I joined I was consistently losing money in the markets. Currently I make more than my annual subscriptions each week and often in a single day. I have learned how to do that here.”
“MikeR” – Trading Room,2015-04-24
“For fun I decided to click on the performance tab in one of my accounts to see the results from the day I joined EWT . . yes, I am up 1399%. . . This is solely to show you how, when properly used, the information here is a GOLD MINE!”
“ASOT” – Trading Room,2015-10-21
“When I first subscribed to EWT late last year I knew less than nothing. I would like to think that I have worked my way up to now just knowing nothing. I just ran my asset report for the month of August…twice. Result–+26.48%. I wanted to express my extreme gratitude to all of the amazing staff and the gold mine of subscribers here at EWT. You taught me to trade less, focus more. If you can learn this old redneck you can learn anyone.”
“terptactic” – Trading Room,2015-09-04
We get these almost daily.
Hope everyone is having a good WE.
A quick few words on the way Avi thinks and lays out his calls, and how this has personally helped me in my investing and trading.
But before that, a preliminary disclaimer: I am NOT one of his subscribers. So I have no financial incentive here – whatsoever.
*****
A FEW WORDS ON AVI’S APPROACH AND WHY IT CAN BE SEEN AS GIBBERISH AT FIRST:
When I started listening to Avi on Kereport (I think Sept 2014 was one of the first times), I kinda felt like Trader Terry Smythe.
I considered there was a lot of “If” “If” “If” scenarii in Avi’s write-ups. Honestly, at the beginning, I was a bit lost and couldn’t figure out what he was saying and what his view was. Like Trader Terry, I felt like Avi was covering himself on all fronts.
Instead of dismissing Avi’s views and say – like I’ve seen in written here and there on the internet – that he is a clown, or that he always cover all angles in order to never be wrong – what I did though was telling myself that Avi seemed to have a decently large following… and that there must have been a good reason for that (most of the time, crowds are wrong, but when crowds pay for a service and seem to be happy by the service they pay for, I pay attention).
So I told myself that maybe I, myself, was the one missing something or I just didn’t get his point. So maybe I just didn’t understand him properly, and I had to make an effort.
So what I did a few times was RE-listen to his interviews, and RE-read his posts on Kereport. Re-listen, re-read. Re-listen, re-read. Trying to understand HOW he thinks, and hence what he writes and says. Not judging him based on what I THOUGHT or based on MY way of thinking, but trying to understand HIS approach. And then, I finally got it.
And I have to admit that to “get it”, I had to change the way I think, and the way I approach trading/investing –> simply put, I had to change my approach to risk management.
To add a few words, I will say this:
* Avi’s approach to trading is, IMHO, excellent in terms of risk management.
What he does is basically this: he goes to the market w. a view, but has key levels in mind along the way, ALL the time. And sometimes, he also has no view – which is also a view in itself – and he lets the market tell him the story.
* If the market proves him wrong as those turning points, he just realizes that things are changing and that he is wrong/wrong-sided and close his position. Nothing inappropriate with that approach, in my book.
* Also, IMHO, this approach helps protecting capital pretty well (due to tight risk management at key levels).
Investing/trading is about survival via capital protection FIRST. Hence the utmost importance of risk management.
Avi makes mistakes, always had, and always will.
So do I.
So does George Soros.
So do all of us.
But the key is: what does one do when one is proven wrong by the market?
The answer to that question determines largely the magnitude of returns we can achieve on the long-run.
MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE AND HOW I’VE COME TO TRY TO INCORPORATE HIS APPROACH INTO MY PROCESS, AND HOW THIS AS PLAYED OUT
Here, I just wish to provide a little insight into how I use this approach of having a view but keeping an open-mind and being able to quickly admit one is wrong.
* Example 1: Re: the SPY:
coming from the August lows, I was tempted to short it as I THOUGHT it would pull back and make new lows (ie it will go below August lows): I was looking for a short in the 2040-2045 zone, then in the 2070-80region…
Everytime, at these levels which I deemed key, the market proved me I was wrong to be willing to short —> so no short for me.
I had a strong view, but the market was telling me my view was wrong –> I had to respect the market.
* Re: PM stocks/Gold:
Going into this Friday (Nov. 6), I was intimately – and I mean INTIMATELY convinced – the job numbers would be poor-ish , and that this would mark the beginning of a 5-6 weeks pick-up/rally to the PM sector.
I thought gold would pop on the data release, and send the whole sector up.
But in order to have that scenario in place w. the least risk, I needed to see weakness across the board on the sector. I need to see oversold conditions on the sector FIRST.
On Thursday, gold didn’t break DOWN the $1100 level, which I thought was kind of required to take everyone off guard on Friday. I was hoping for this $1100 level to break down…. and this didn’t occur… –> I started to have doubts about my thesis.
I was tempted to deploy some capital into selected names into the close, but they, also, were not experiencing a washout – which was my favorite scenario in order to catch everyone off guard the next day –> here, I started to massively doubt my scenario of a pop for Friday, and therefore did NOT deploy any capital on Thursday near the close.
BESIDE – and I shared this to Richard/Doc 1 hour before the data release on Friday – NONE of the charts of stocks I was looking at where at oversold levels –> that made a surprise pop even LESS likely.
Hence, it really made my “job miss on Friday–> gold pop –> sector little run for 5-6 weeks scenario” look very very very unlikely/questionable.
I realized that I had intimate conviction the job report would be poor-ish, but the market was telling me the gold stocks were not oversold – ie that could easily fall further. So to me, that was a BIG orange (not red, orange) flag. For that reason, I didn’t deploy capital ahead of the job number into the sector. Whatever I had in my mind, I had to respect the market, and respect the charts.
FWIW, if there is one thing I have learned, over the past few quarters, it is that it is ok to have a view. It is ok to have fundamental views. It is even ok, in my book, to be biased. B-U-T one has to quickly recognize when the market is not cooperating or is sending opposite signals – otherwise, a catastrophe is just awaiting at the corner for one’s capital. It is even more important to do so in the PM/resource space given that – as I reminded us in the interview earlier this week w. Big Al/Cory – this is the sector with the most volatility in the stock market – ie when one is wrong sided, this is where the most damage to the portfolio can/will occur.
So I am still 95% cash and still looking to deploy a significant of my portfolio into the sector in the next month. HOWEVER, I let the charts tell me the story w. regards to when it is less risky to do so.
I am not trying to catch the bottom when I deploy the capital, but I need to have the sense that my risk is fairly limited. And IF I deploy and the market proves me wrong, I have to be able to change my mind in order to protect my capital. That’s having a plan, and having a plan after the plan.
If you think my approach reflects a lack of conviction, that’s ok…it just means to me I failed to explain it correctly.
I will simply note that in his latest interview, Stan Druckenmiller said that one of his current ideas was to short the EURO vs. the Dollar… but he cautioned the audience to not follow his advice because he said “I can change my mind very quickly’.
TO CONCLUDE:
Keeping an open-mind and recognizing early when I was wrong has saved me a lot of money and spared me a lot of mistakes over the past 18mths. Mistakes I used to make and I don’t make anymore.
In this regard, I owe an infinite gratitude to Richard/Doc, and to Avi as well.
Avoiding “big” mistakes is a good first step in generating long lasting positive returns. It’s like in football/soccer: it’s difficult to lose when one does note concedes goals.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
LPG,
I have a question regarding the rate increase.
I think they have to raise rates because they’ve already telegraphed it to the markets. Now, that the market is “expecting” rates to increase it gives them the opportunity to do so and thus barring a major black swan event, I think they will do it.
If I remembered correctly, did you say in the past that you believe that gold will go up when the FED raise rate ?
Thanks
Hello Gabriel,
I think you are referring to my interview a few days ago on Oct 29.
Here’s the link to it:
http://www.kereport.com/2015/10/29/bit-daily-market-wrap-big-al-doc-laurentpatrick-gally-aka-lpg/
I’ll try to go through again what was mentioned during the interview – this should answer your question – and will provide some additional thoughts so that you can relate to my perspective (ie you can put my thoughts into a larger context/framework of analysis).
WHAT WAS MENTIONED DURING THE INTERVIEW (PS: I didn’t re-listen to it today but I typically have a decent memory)
I’ve said a couple of things during the interview, including (on the top of my mind) that “I am INCREASINGLY convinced that the low in gold MIGHT be in… […] But in case it is not” then I mentioned that I was “hoping” for a Fed hike in December as a Fed rate hike might be the event that marks the resumption of the bull run in gold.
My CURRENT thinking is that on Dec 16, Fed will announce a hike. On this, the algos/machines will likely slam gold right away. The slam can be $10, 20, 30, 40, 50… I have no idea of the magnitude. But what I believe is that then, this will mark the resumption of the bull.
A few more words re: Dec 16:
The more the sector will be weak going into Dec 16, the higher the chances of a bounce.
I am going into Dec 16, 2015 w. the expectation of the same set-up as December 2014 for the Swiss referendum. When it became clear the “No” will prevail in the referendum, gold drifted. Results of the referendum were announced on a Sunday night. At the open in Asia, the algos slammed gold… but gold closed UP for the day on Monday in N-Y. It was a c-l-a-s-s-i-c case of “short-sell the rumor, close the short w. the fact”.
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS SO THAT YOU CAN RELATE TO MY LARGER PERSPECTIVE:
I know/am aware some technicians I respect A LOT – such as Richard/Doc – think the bottom for the metals MIGHT be next summer… and Avi – who I respect equally – seems to believe that IF the low is not made in the next 2-3 weeks, then it is likely a few months away in 2016. To finish, it seems Martin Armstrong has a low slated for the metal in 2016 (in H2 if I am not mistaken).
==> So the odds SEEM to be against me w. re: to Dec 16 maybe marking the low point for gold. PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM OK WITH THAT. I understand I can be wrong, and very open-minded about that.
I am of the view that the region of $1,000/Oz is a “good” region to buy more gold for those who want to get more exposure – the lower the price, the better. So $1,000 is better than $1,100 and if it gets there, $900 is even better than $1,000 (I am NOT saying it will, I am just saying “IF” it does). I’ve already sent emails to people around me on the matter this week.
And I even suggested to people to get SILVER if they have to chose between silver and gold.
Lastly, what you have to keep in mind is that I am interested in the precious metal stocks for speculation purposes. So I do not typically comment on gold for gold per se, but much more for what it means for the sector (the equities).
I remind ourselves that typically, equities precede their commodities at tops and bottoms. Typically, the time lag is about 6months.
In 2011, a bunch of PM stocks topped in H1 11 while gold made its top in September. So what I keep on the back of my mind is that EVEN if a low in gold is made in the summer 2016, the clock is LIKELY ticking for many of these stocks for them to mark a bottom.
In this regard, having discussed w. Richard/Doc yesterday, it seems to me S-O-M-E PM stocks have already bottomed, and have also already started their bullrun – something I had also mentioned in the interview on Oct 29.
So if classic inter-classes relationship hold, EVEN if I am wrong and gold makes THE LOW in the summer 2016, I would be of the opinion that some stocks will bottom before that time.
But just keep in mind one caveat: SEASONALLY, the summer is not typically a good period for the sector – so assuming seasonality prevails again, we should see weakness irrespectively in the sector.
==> I understand these are several parameters to jiggle with, but these are all the parameters I try to incorporate in my THOUGHT process.
That’s why, ultimately, I rely on the chart for the timing: I let the market/chart tell me the story.
But what I don’t want, is for ex. say: “I’m gonna go long the sector ONLY when I have chart confirmation that the gold bull has resumed again, and that is when gold is >$1300 something.” Because between now or a potential lower low in gold and where some stocks will be when gold hits 1300 again, some stock will have moved very very very nicely. Successful investing is buying when things are cheap, not when you have confirmation that the bull is back – at that time, it’s obvious for everyone, and most of the easy gains have been lost.
*************
That was a long response, but hope this 1) answered your question and 2) clarified my views on other angles. If not, please lemme know and I’ll try again – shorter this time.
Best to you,
LPG
Thanks LPG
Thanks LPG.
Good thoughts & response from both Avi and LPG. I completely agree that if you don’t go into a trade with you primary expectation, and the plan for if that trade turns against you then it not proper risk management. Also there are technical patterns that could be completing on both a short-term and long-term basis, and if certain support or resistance levels are not taken out, then the Alternate Plan B scenario is the one that is playing out….not your original Plan A thesis. The best traders I know recover from losses quickly, adjust there projections when data and new facts present themselves, and don’t get married to a one-way directional thesis.
Good stuff Avi and I for one appreciate the If/Then scenarios, to know the 2 most likely patterns that may play out. (sometimes your longer range charts with so many potential paths do get a bet mind-boggling though 🙂 ) Thanks!
I personally have a lot of time for you, Avi
***************** HARVEY ORGAN EXPLAINS IT ALL !!!!! ****************
This time I think Harvey is right!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZL3ZGFuyx0
Harvey Organ is a complete idiot (sorry..but that’s exactly how I feel)
LIKE ALL THE REST ON HERE, NO WAY DID YOU LISTEN TO THE ENTIRE INTERVIEW!
If you really listened…….this is a very logical interview…….NOW WE KNOW that the central banksters will do what ever they can to rig it so that none of this plays out!
“BUT……..WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE WEST RUNS OUT OF GOLD TO CHINA!”
China will already be in the SDR by then!
The SDR is next for China………………………..things are about to change in 2016!
Gold bugs weekend:
Love it. picked up a nice 30% premium on junk this week…….
JNK is breaking down:
High grade corporates bul market is over:
JNK is breaking down, and conventional stocks will follow.
Hathaway on gold equities:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/john-hathaway-october-2015.html
thanks
Do we have to look at sprottmoney to know their opinion is buy gold/silver?
Personally I better use the time checking out aliens, at least sometimes Im surprise.
As I see it, (and of course I could have misunderstood when the aliens told me), gold should head to 1000-800, at that point we shall see if we find this elusive bottom or we head to 400 and decades of grinding sideways.
On the other hand maybe Bo and the sprott crowd are right and up we go.
Have I called it both ways?
If it does decide to grind sideways maybe a guy could make money teaching how to make jewellery? There will be a lot of potential students around.
Actually Hathaway makes the most cogent available opinion if you’re considering gold mining equities.(it’s still an investment strategy) At least he doesn’t sound like a tin-foil nutter.
Fran, I didn’t check the link, tell me, does he suggest owning gold/silver, streaming companies, PM ETFs or miners?
It’s about making correct decisions when evaluating a mining company and the expertise the Tocqueville fund brings to the table. He also talks about gold price lows, which you have to remember was before the most recent rollback.
Fran, Im not saying Hathaway is nuts or doesn’t know what he is talkin about. Im just sayin these guys have been sayin the same stuff for years, this PM stuff is finite, eventually ya don’t need to see what they say anymore. Its always the same stuff.
And their opinion is PM increases in dollar terms.
They are sitting on mountains of it, their opinion is not going to change.
No, bb, it is not going to change.
So do you recommend buying the VXX in the event of a rout in the S&P rather than gold mining companies?
I cant recommend anything concerning trading,… Im a lousey trader.
I have PM companies I like, I hope they increase should this bear ever die. That’s it,… I know of many good companies, more than I have cash for.
Last bull I was swimming in cash, not bad for a first effort and hope to find “deeper waters” next time. lol
My opinion, (if ya havnt noticed) and has been for years now, is that we get to somewhere around 1000 gold, we either begin a bull at that point or Dent is right, I have no idea which way it will go, but Im putting my money on the bull.
My hope is that I buy close to the low.
I figure 5-10% of investable income should be physical gold, and it could be an idea to own an amount of silver with the remaining 90-95% in physical silver. Once ya got the amount your comfortable with ya don’t need more. Silver/gold= different animals.
Just before I buy gold usually spikes up a bit, and right after it drops.
Basic law of Murphy I believe.
I am in your camp, bb.
In Sprott’s defense……a stopped clock is eventually right. (One day he will be correct on gold and he will be vindicated in his views and that will hopefully wipe away many years of sounding like a damned fool).
Until then, just ignore him. Last I heard he dropped off the list of the top wealthiest in Canada as he had lost so much money on his bad metals investments. Of course, he thinks that will all turn around one day and he will regain his crown amongst the top ten.
Too damn funny for words!
What a great bull market in gold. I wonder what a bear market looks like. Experts claiming a new bull market when you can clearly see from the charts that the small rally does not even show up. I took my losses Wednesday and made back more than double that with XOP this week. Gold will have to exceed 1350 before the next bull starts. It looks like it is headed to 1000 to 1033 and next summer to near 800 for the possible final bottom. Gary was advising before the jobs report to sell the general market and go into gold which is a highly risky move.
He really did believe it and admitted he was wrong.
The bull market in gold prices started in 1999, and to my knowledge has not been violated. We are in a correction so long as the S&P garners the attention.
A price low occurred in July, and we’re still above that price,despite a very intensive bear raid. Longs were taken advantage of, because they were not adequately hedged, thus the decline was precipitous.
Also? Short sellers did not have any available gold to borrow, such as leased gold. This is evident in the spike of obligations to each ounce on the COMEX.
I can only foresee that a rush into treasuries will require the sell-side in gold to settle.
So a multi year down trend is not a bear? Many will beg to differ. 30-40 % loses is the definition of a bear market.
Yes it is, Bill.
He did? On Oct 23rd he was “99% sure the bear was over in gold” and on Friday he said that he lost the bet to Doc, but simply moved on to “gold gets a bounce” and then “down to 1030-1050 level”. So it okay to arrogantly make his calls, but when questioned about his call simply states that “NO ONE ELSE GETS IT” and “I’M UP 15%”. LOL. Newsletter writers – never humble, never wrong. It’s amazing. What a joke. I can flip a coin and get the same accuracy.
Can’t disagree Terry. But it is all about symantics.
Good luck to everyone here listening to this stuff. Group think is costly. Adios.
Why is it guys like Terry leave?
They disagree with the majority, so?
I guess if ya don’t find the conversation beneficial or enjoyable.
Would actually be neat to have Bird,JJ,James the lesser Listener and Terry around at the same time, everybody might learn a little somtin about trading.
They’re all smart, but with the exception of Bird/Listener, they’e broken records with bad attitudes. And Bird/Listener has his moments, e.g. calling Gary a damn fool today.
I cannot agree that Bird/Listener is a broken record with a bad attitude.
I won’t take that back. Gary is a damned fool some days (and I really like him because he is often brilliant, so don’t get on my case). He just needs to show more humility is all. I am bothered by his use of language mostly. Extreme words…too much false confidence…..no consideration of the objections of others.
That’s all.
You are definitely not Birdman you are DefinitielySmartMan!
Terry has not left.
Big Al, I hope you’ll notice that I said “with the exception of Bird/Listener”
Well Bird/Listener, I would agree with you that comments like “99% certain” and “I’m the only one that gets this right” are foolish comments.
But “He just needs to show more humility is all. I am bothered by his use of language mostly. Extreme words…” ???
In my book, calling someone out as a damn fool in a public forum is an extreme use of words. You might want to read that last quote out loud while you look in the mirror.
Point taken. Thank you GH because you are correct.
Just keep in mind I think very highly of Gary. He just upsets me sometimes.
Bird, I commented on your post re Gary above before noting this convo. And they way you’ve commented here is much more reasonable (though considering humility and language, perhaps instead of naming him a fool, perhaps from what you’ve commented here you mean to say that despite being brilliant at times he has made some foolish comments/ calls). More to the point, less offensive etc 😉
BIRD!!!! What do you mean, “point taken”??
Watupwidat?, get a few in ya and let loose buddy.
That’s some of the best readin on the site.
And besides, Im seein multiple posts from you and not even once have you mentioned a drop in gold price. Your the best man.
I, and probably most others understand exactly what you mean concerning Gary.
I have always appreciated Gary because of his mentions of manipulations, others think that’s nuts. oh well, to itch his own.
But lots of people her have seen Gary and others with huge batting averages and then get struck out a couple times in a row.
Happens to everyone.
But what I have noticed, when that happens, the good ones seem to get their groove back.
Personally, Im getting another coin, the one I got sucks.
Thanks bb
Really sorry to see you go. But the again Terry, our philosophy is to listen to all sides of every story. That philosophy has treated the Korelin family very well over the years.
Best to you.
ditto
No Frank!
It’s “dido” 🙂
You tell him. 😉
I need some music………….. 🙂
How about a transatlantic session…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0E8zeJipm1s
thanks…….appreciate variety …..Dido would be my 1st choice………. 🙂
great fiddle (violin ) player…………..
Gold bear, time to say goodbye…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tteQjH7q_Ck 🙂
…the angel of death is coming -with banjos! 😮
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7cY5hwmvX0&list=PLjRyh8JaC_eR4NhcqFE8Y5CzgSf4sboev
thanks for the music…..my daughter, likes and does a great job on Sarah Brightman’s rendition ” Time to say good bye”
Your comment made me think of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4069PUk3aM0
good selection……..I have not heard that one in a looooooooooooog time. thanks. 🙂
He is NOT off the hook Al. All he said was that he owed Doc a dinner but he never apologized to all of the 10,000 listeners that come to your site each day. Hardly contrite, don’t you think?
Why are you defending him? …..only because he is a regular guest?
Don’t get me wrong, I like Gary and some of his calls have been excellent but this last one claiming 99% confidence in the renewal of a gold bull market was just too st***d for words.
He definitely said “I made a mistake.”
Dude seriously they make pills for that….
You should talk to doc (not only bout that) but about pms as he is the only one one here who has done so in regards currencies OTHER THAN the usd. In CAD, Australian, euro, etc the gold bear IS LONG GONE. Stop being so usd centric lol
I would also point out that Gary was the only guest here that made money on the gold run up to the Oct peak.
Jay,
I do beg to differ. We caught that bottom as well, and we used various mining stocks such as SA to ride that higher. In fact, we actually caught it exactly on the day of the GDX bottom. But, at the same time, we only viewed the higher probability as it being a corrective bounce. Yet, we have been busy building our long term positions for the resumption of the bull market we expect to see soon.
Take care.
Jay, don’t be upset by my posts. I will say it again; Gary is a very gifted individual and he has made many excellent calls in the past that defied the logic of the crowd.
Other than this recent episode I can tell you unambiguously that I think he has shown genius yet I am still bothered with that recent “99% sure” comment because there were so many indicators saying it was wrong.
And I think that Gary, as a professional market watcher, should have picked up on those cues. That in a nutshell is my whole complaint. And you are right by the way that I should not have called him a fool.
So I apologize to you (and Gary and Avi) for saying that.
My good friend “A Listener” also apologizes!
As I stated yesterday, you are “Smart Man”.
Bird, thanks! And those comments I can wholeheartedly agree with (heck I was shorting slv and gdx the moment I has seen the ridiculous position changes in the cot report).
The only point I’d make again is I do believe Gary is somewhat right but not how he put it in regards the bear being over. Pms priced in currencies other than the usd are telling us the bear was over MONTHS ago. Only in usd (which as you know are up huge) are the pms still in bear mode. And I wish Al and Cory would do a segment on this because I think it’s an important perspective people should be paying close attention to.
Avi, my apologies brotherman! Actually right after I had posted that I was starting to question whether or not I might have heard that from you too. Good call though and thanks so much for your contributions to the site!!
He is just a little early and the bottom is likely next summer.
Talk to Moriarty. ITS A BULL! Called him an idiot a year ago.
I warned ya all where we heading. No where but down. Sprott will not be vindicated for eons.
Again Bill, good point.
Al
The only reason I was so rude as i was told I use the review mirror to invest. Nope.
Hard core fundamentals from long term credible sourses. Then T/A and being a vontrarion comes next.
Theres few that get the global pic right.
The US is always going the wrong route and supporting terrorists to change the regime. Iraq has been destroyed and it could take a 100 years or more to undo the damage done by the US. There are suicide bombings every day now. It was in relative peace before that with about as much violence as in the US.
It’s too soon to enumerate in Elliot Wave terms recent moves in the gold market. See if you don’t agree with the outcome. We have a Wave One extension where the strongest wave advance is actually the first wave in the series.
Those calling for a gold rout below some very longstanding inflation numbers may wish to look at gold prices adjusted for inflation just prior to the devaluation in 1934. Adjusted for inflation, the devaluation in 1934 is higher than where gold prices are now. (Est. 1.618 of $700/oz. = $1132/oz., in round numbers)
So what I did is to remove all of the inflation prognostications, as some of them were made when inflation expectations were clearly ‘out-of-this-world’ in 2009, and vastly simplified the chart where the wave propagation fits between two extremes.
Highs in the gold price were at times when interest rates clearly fell below inflation, and extreme lows were recorded when interest rates went above inflation. Ten year rates are poking just above inflation, so we would be at a low.
Very highly likely that ten year rates fall below inflation again. How low? Rates in Switzerland are below negative for ten year bonds,mans the same for Yurp. Time will only tell, but where interest rates reside vs. inflation is a string determinant in the gold price: all inflation-adjusted prices have been removed.
You can look at interest rates vs. inflation this way, both charts aught to underline how the gold market reacts, and just what this price means as of the close on Friday.
Notable to the discussion is the deeply emotional involvement of the commercials in shorting gold, and the loss of awareness by leveraging up 300X to each ounce of available gold, and the fact that bullion banks did not obtain their objective of undermining the bull market in gold prices.
Thanks for the comments Fran Six.
RE: Syria
“…what we are doing there…” Who is this we??? It ain’t you, it ain’t me…it’s the gangster neo-con new world odor agenda agents…We are just the tax serfs who get to pay for it. We are the little people and our rulers cr@p all over us. Don’t ever forget that. What I think…what you think…it just doesn’t add up to jack shiite.
Ebolan, yup your right. So? Whats your point?
Start the story pretty much anywhere in history you would like, Republics,monarchies, Ceasers and even gods have opposed it, but the actual people? they really don’t give a poop.
I mean, look at the movies made, books written, these guys can take down towers, murder hundreds of thousands of children invade and destroy nations, genocide entire cultures, pollute our environment to the point our water is poison and the very air affects us adversely and not enough people give 2 poops to change it.
Maybe the answer to it is obvious? The majority of people like it this way.
I don’t think it’s that they like it so much as that they are just completely clueless. And those who do like it do so as a result of the brainwashing they get in the government run youth indoctrination camps…er…gummit schools and the lamestream media.
The vast majority in this society just don’t have a clue and our rulers make sure it stays that way. One thing we can do is try to get the word out although I know that seems useless as our rulers seem to have overpowering propaganda and have various ways of silencing people they consider a threat.
Below is an example of the clueless sheeple. Sometimes I think these Mark Dice interviews are fake but then I talk to the people I come across in my day to day activities and then I don’t think so.
These Hillary Supporters Want Her to Repeal the Bill of Rights if She’s Elected President
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiZFXkmofgI
Eddie, the amount of ignorance out there is simply amazing!
absolutely LOL, aint democracy great?
There is just plain no cure for stupid. And it seems stupid is infectious.
Forget curing cancer, we need to research curing stupid.
Totally hilarious.
I enjoyed the show this week, thx guys.
Pleasure bb
Just some info about the 94 million people in America who are not working that Peter Boockvar mentions. About half of them are not working full-time because they are not available. They are going to school full-time, or they are a stay-at-home parent with small children, or they are retired, or they are disabled. So just because someone is physically able to work does not mean that they are available for work. When I collected unemployment I had to certify that I was both able and available for work.
Now the other half of those 94 million not in the labor force is a different matter. They are not in the labor force mostly due to the weak economy, or because they are lazy and they want to collect welfare, or both.
I think we went over this before, but it bears repeating:
The precipitous decline in the labor participation rate can’t be construed as anything other than a very negative trend. Debt levels are high, most people have no savings, standard of living has been declining for decades. It would be a mistake to think most of these people are not working because they have already ‘got it made’.
who said they are not working because “they have already got it made”?
No one said that, Al, I certainly didn’t mean to put words in JMiller’s mouth.
I was just putting a stark contrast on two interpretations of this data point.
I think you are right but the current condition is nothing compared to what the future has in store. Things will get much worse in this society.
Unfortunately, I fully agree with you Ebolan.
I think PCR is telling it like it is although I know many will disagree.
AL, it is good to know China but why do you invite a die hard anti China organization to talk about China all the time. I know Falun Gong pays a lot of money to get the media exposure, have they paid KER? You can not get a true picture of China from a dedicated china Bashing organization. If you get a free copy of epoch times, you can see news and comments are all one sided.
I realize exactly where the paper is coming from. We think that Valentine does have something to say.
I do not have a free subscription and they do not sponsor us at all. I also do not agree with all that they say.
Thanks for clarification AL. I have more contact with those people and their purpose is revenge against Chinese government. Most of their claims are fabricated and factual false. I am not for Chinese government either but I hate to see false information being spread.
Our Friday Discussion Group includes a Chinese gentleman who is our sounding board as he has a lot of knowledge from personal experiences.
ONE person….?!
Chris M’s apparent uncertainty as to what the driving narrative might be re US’ entanglements in Iraq, Libya, et al is surely obvious if one listens to any of Paul Craig Roberts’ threads that the US is a hegemonic superpower whose leaders see themselves as the ‘uber’ chosen race. And as the US descends into a third world country where half of 25 year olds cannot live independent of their parents, and where as always the FOMC jobs report remains a woeful sham this uber narrative will do anything to keep the truth denied, and where as the ‘strong’ dollar dies so war becomes the only viable option.
Long Live The “Dollar”….We Dont Want A War.
Long Live Peace….Lets “Kill The Dollar.
There fixed it for everyone.
You are brilliant Mr Irish.
Oil related news:
Yemen’s army and Ansarullah fighters took full control over the Saudi city of al-Rabouah
Saudi may have got itself into a battle it cannot afford. Saudi is surrounded on three sides.
Dragonite,
What do you mean by “on 3 sides” ?
LPG
Maybe he meant by water.
lol Bird !
The world’s population is surrounded on three sides- mind, body, spirit.
North Jordon/Syria, South Yemen and east Iraq/Iran
You can see this is forming. I am sure Iraq will fall to Iran and Jordan will fall to Syria.
You think so Dragonite?
Iraq already sides with Iran and refuses US help. Jordon also agreed to work with Russia and Syria to get rid of ISIS. I think Russian intention is not only Syria. It is only the first step. No good chess player play a move with only one purpose. Once Syria problem is solved, it will be Saudi Arabia. Then Israel will have to respect Russia. I would do this if I am Putin. The key might be for US to win over Jordon, right now. It used to be a US friend and has been neglected. So I say SA is surrounded three sides. It is almost done deal.
Purely and simply it is s mess Drahonite
I have to say that Harry Truman made a huge mistake!
Off course I am from Alberta so I am biased.
Dragonite/Lawrence,
Hope you’re well.
I tend to not understand several parts of your “geopolitical” analysis of the Middle-East… but at the end, everyone’s entitled to their views/opinions.
More interestingly, I initially did not understand your “geography” angle with the 3 sides. That was the reason for my question: I had an issue with the number “3”.
So despite having lived in the Middle-East for almost the past 10yrs now, I took a look at a map of the Middle-East.
Looking at the map, I can’t agree w. your geography, and hence your view that KSA is surrounded on 3 sides.
My 2cts.
Best to you,
LPG
No problem. In politics, there is no right or wrong anyway. I do think Russia will do more than defeating ISIS. It looks like a good opportunity to convert a big oil producing region into their control.
LPG
Iran is east of Saudi, Iraq/Syria north and Yemen south = 3 sides.
So did Gare put that rat poison on Doc’s steak yet? Lol That was so wrong! Poor ol’ Doc gets no respect!
Doc gets plenty of respect which he certainly deserves.
Joseph Farrell explains at the 50:40 sec mark the reason behind the endless supply of money printing is based on a covert financial system set up after plundering during Project Lily at the end of WW2. FFWD to 50:40 its about a 12 min explanation well researched and documented https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1svGIBKaE_0
Kevin, thank you for the comments.
Evin,,,,,,,I posted some comments on your first post….thanks….(see gary’s Friday 6th)
Book from above link, Gold Warriors .
In 1945, US intelligence officers in Manila discovered that the Japanese had hidden large quantities of gold bullion and other looted treasure in the Philippines. President Truman decided to recover the gold but to keep its riches secret. These, combined with Japanese treasure recovered during the US occupation, and with recovered Nazi loot, would create a worldwide American political action fund to fight communism. This ‘Black Gold’ gave Washington virtually limitless, unaccountable funds, providing an asset base to reinforce the treasuries of America’s allies, to bribe political and military leaders, and to manipulate elections in foreign countries for more than fifty years.
Almost five stars! I assume that it is non fiction. Am I correct?
That’s the hoard Hudas is talking about.
If there is as much gold in that hoard as she says there is, gold price could be low for another 100 years easily.
It also explains how China/Russia etc can buy more than the earth produces for years without anyone knowing where the gold is coming from. Or why the states might not actually be concerned with their debt.
It could mean she is right about the aliens too. lol
do not get the aliens…….and the experimental aircraft mixed up….as explained in the tape.
Experimental aircraft by Nazi’s …which was later experimented at LOCKHEED …
FITTS ……also, talks about the “BLACK BUDGET”, financing not seen on the govt sheets, but used to finance special CIA project.
Fitts was a speaker at the secret space program conference as well.
The Nazi program was pretty advanced for the time, but they were not building spacecraft as far as I know.
Vaon Braun did have some stuff on the drawing board I think.
The entire point is…………..BLACK BUDGET………off the radar, money making machine, the printing press for the military industrial complex.
the link to book review
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/249237.Gold_Warriors
sorry for the separate posts…
The “FANG” stocks are in pure blowoff top mode, but who knows where that top will be. Virtually every other class of equities globally are in a downtrend. I don’t really know what else to do besides being long the US dollar with some physical silver and lots of cash.
Junk bonds and commodities are screaming deflationary collapse ahead. But it will probably take Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk in handcuffs to end this insane bubble.
Jamie Dimon on Youtube……don’t waste your time with Bitcoin because eventually it will be shut down. No government is going to tolerate a private currency for long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vcq0_h1_J30
Now there is an I interesting opinion.
I believe him on this totally. Jamie is right. A private currency must not rely on any government provided media. There are too many ways to shut down BitCoin.
At LEAST for the short term, selling Dow/S&P to buy gold makes a lot of sense:
DIA:GLD
http://schrts.co/uAEQCL
Assuming no decline in stocks, GDXJ will have to rise more than 1,300% to get back to its 2011 S&P 500 valuation. Of course, it’s far more likely that the S&P will fall while GDXJ rises so it won’t take quite such a dramatic move for GDXJ to take back the 93% that it lost against SPY.
http://schrts.co/aql1Mr
I’m actually looking to play a bounce in the GDX rather soon. I’m going to stay away from playing a bounce in the GDXJ though.
Some of the gold charts I have been looking at over the weekend are quite positive if gold does not keep falling early this coming week. It sure looks to me that we are nearly at the next gold bounce so getting long here again makes sense. They have got to move before I buy back in though. Steeper losses still look possible but in general gold and miners are in very oversold territory so its just a matter of days at most.
But does that imply general equities are in for a corrective decline next week? Natural Gas might be telling us that as it often rises when stocks are in decline. Who knows why exactly its just something I have noticed over the years.
Unfortunately, in this insane market I don’t feel I can give a valid opinion, Listener.
No problem Al. One thing that I have noticed that is potentially very constructive for miners next week is that copper is close to posting a triple bottom if it has not already completed its near term declines. If copper does rise then Teck should get liftoff and the pattern we see developing on that chart would result in an inverse Head and Shoulders. I am quite positive on Teck right now. It just remains to be seen if copper bounces or keeps falling (I am in the camp that says we see a nice liftoff). Have a look at the copper futures Daily chart to see what I am looking at:
Copper Futures Daily – Finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=HG
Not being a chart guy. Gold looks to be on a precipice, without looking at anything else but the chart it looks to me to be 50/50 as to it rising or falling soon.
If it breaks 1089 there doesn’t seem like much resistance preventing a fall to 979.
Gold looks risky right now, either way, so, jack be nimble jack be quick.
Gotta always be that way bb
A Listener; I hate to be the bearer of bad news but copper is getting ready for another leg down.
Doc,
Thanks for the comment about copper. I’m looking to buy COPX next week when it gets a bid. It looks like it’s going up to me, but your comment gives me more caution and makes me wait a bit longer for clear confirmation. Thanks.
Chartster, you’re welcome—I would second your comment about being cautious here. Copper like gold might get a little bid here temporarily but gold will be lower in December—if that is true then you can see copper and other commodities would also be at risk and lower by December.
Gold and silver miners have never looked so appealing relative to gold. The XAU would have to quadruple in gold value just to return to the 200 month moving average:
http://schrts.co/kNVOcM
It would have to be worth ten times as much gold to reach its 1996 high.
Interesting point about the miners, Mathew.
Agree partially but we should know gold is going up in a long term but we can not say the same with gold equities. A lot of them will go under and even index has come close to the low of 2000. It is to say, gold stocks have dropped all the way back to the low even as gold has done more than 300% advance. If gold does not rise for another two years (not talking about drop to 800), gold stocks will be cut to half again. Junior to mid tier will be with 0. A lot of them already dropped to 1-5% of their peak.
Go big or go home 🙂
Yeup!
That’s why I prefer to looks at miners individually. Many will be just fine.
You bet Matthew, many will be just fine!
Hello Matthew,
Hope you’re well.
Agree w. your comment re: Gold/Silver miners relative to gold based on the chart.
The only “issue” I have w. the chart is that this has been the case since Feb 2013…
My 2 cts.
Best as always,
LPG
So true, LPG, that’s why we select our companies based on their individual merits. Claude and many others have been in a bull market for as much as a year, or even more, while True Gold and other development plays will be cash cows at even lower gold prices. As much as Burkina Faso’s politics, I think the bear market is to blame for TGM trading at .3x NAV.
Also, I’m sure you’ll agree that the XAU:GOLD chart should not be looked at in isolation and, therefore, that the picture looks a bit better today than it did in 2013.
Thanksatthrw
This is for Mr Korelin: I am a relatively new listener to your shows and heard you state a couple of times that your affinity to gold was long term in nature. Can you elaborate for me please, what you mean by long term?
Sure Bryan. For the rest of my life.
I view gold/silver as a forever investment as a measure of safety. At one time it saved the lives of some of my family members as they were fleeing China.
AL,
“At one time it saved the lives of some of my family members as they were fleeing China”.
I think if you shared a detailed version of this story it would make a good weekend show.
All The Best,
JIM
Same maybe Al for OUR children’s children….
We will surely get a bounce one day …
RSI (25.8) and Stoc (2.8) oversold and price lower than BB.
I am just waiting for a green bar …
Gold price stops the big drops and stay for the same levels for few days;
Gold price goes down but gold miners are not.
RSI stops moving down and stays at the same level.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BVjt11f0/
After that …
From an EW perspective:
The decline of gold from 1921 to 1073 is only a double zig-zag correction (W-X-Y).
If this count is correct, wave c of Y is incomplete.
It appears to be taking the form of an ending diagonal.
According to this count, gold has still one more bottom left to make .
Tim Wood has wise words for stock bulls:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/11/market-confusing-for-bears-and-bulls-alike/
Bob Hoye is always good:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/11/us-dollar-jumps-higher-on-employment-news/
Agreed, Bob is always a worthwhile listen.
He must also be the easiest guy to interview in finance.
You only really need to ask him one question at the start & he’ll take it from there & cover every area of the market (as long as you don’t interrupt him ) !
BB…What was the HH issue? I appear to have missed it, although noticed that he was not posting of late.
He got a little weird a antagonistic
He was constantly posting everyone was going to burn for all eternity unless they agreed with him.
He was a “troll” and his whole intention was to disrupt the site.
(disruption is the purpose of a “troll”)
So once Al was convinced he was detrimental, Al blocked him from posting.
A common practice of these “trolls” is to use god/jesus/religion, as this draws support from viewers/posters helping disguise their intentions.
Why they want to “troll” sites, I have no idea, I have read that government agencies will pay to have sites “trolled”.
I like the analogy of “god/jesus/ religion”……….
…kind of like BLANKFINE goldman saker, used on Congress to support his idea………..”he was doing god’s work”, while all the time stealing billions.
Unlike HH, who I seriously profited from the warnings………….jmho
doubt…..should be added…….seriously doubt.
“So what could possibly light a fire under bearish gold-futures speculators to cover their shorts again? A couple things. First, the reason investors abandoned gold in recent years was that Fed-conjured stock-market levitation. And after the stock markets rocketed higher in October in what looks just like a classic bear-market rally, they are ripe for another major selloff. As stocks retreat, gold will catch a bid like usual.
Second, futures speculators are so blinded by herd groupthink that they haven’t yet realized that Fed-rate-hike cycles are actually bullish for gold! This sounds heretical, since the notion that higher yields kill zero-yielding gold appears logical. But history proves just the opposite, that gold investment demand and therefore prices surge when the Fed is hiking rates because it is so damaging to stock and bond prices.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton110615.html
Copper BB-KC sell:
http://schrts.co/6WZLe1
(The BB exited the KC while price was below the 20 EMA/SMA.)
So how about an interview with the founders of Bitgold? I just love it!
Just for yiy CIT and others:
BitGold Zurich Precious Metal Summit
http://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2015/11/03/precious-metals-summit?search=bitgold#
In Q3 2015, Claude Resources Delivered Sound Financial Results, Once Again
Resource Sector Digest: Thank God For The Low Oil Price!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3633206-resource-sector-digest-thank-god-for-the-low-oil-price
GLD:SLV running into resistance at the declining 50 day MA…
http://schrts.co/iGWUNM
(and is overbought on the 60 minute chart)
Thanks Gabriel!
Thanks for the show as usual guys.
Cheers.