Currencies and gold commentary
Gary Savage is with us this morning to focus on the upward moves in the US dollar. With the recent breakout in the dollar we need to reassess some of the other markets we are watching, including gold. As for our gold commentary there should be a bounce coming but not the resumption of a bull market.
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double bottom in gold in the works???
Good question.
C’mon man, give it a rest. Of course USD is
going to pull back here, commodities and gold will rally for a few days, and everyone will be calling a double bottom in gold.
Give it a rest? Do you like the look of the daily chart?
Look at all those gaps:
Like I said last week, the weekly chart looks pretty great. I just don’t trust it based on the daily chart (among other things).
good chance USD will pullback and attempt another run higher after a retrace. Then will determine if it fails or not
Some profitable miners are getting close to their 52 week lows.
Streaming companies might be lookin attractive to some people too.
When silver gets to 10 bucks I might buy SLW.
SLW and most of the miners are headed to 0. Smart money would have never let the gdx:gld ratio get to the current ridiculous extreme if that wasn’t the case.
go ahead and short them then and hold. That would be 100% gains.
BOB…When silver gets to 10 bucks , I’L buy JP Morgan’s stash.
Which ones are profitable?
52 week lows? How about 15 year lows!
15 year lows? My broker page only goes back 52 weeks, but I owned some of the ones I follow and they are down to below 5 years ago anyway.
15 years is a long time, some minelife isn’t that long.
When you look at the participation in stocks, it is a really bleak picture. Also when you look at charts of AMZN and others, I don’t know why people don’t think this is already a bubble.
Stocks don’t have to be in a bubble to put in a top and the market is definitely close to bubble territory.
The Shiller PE is 26.18 right now while the mean is 16.63 and the median is 16.01.
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Thanks Matthew
Yes Matthew, that is what I am talking about. The Shiller PE is that high and people are coming up with explanations to why it can go even higher!
One thing’s for sure, most people will be on the wrong side when it drops again. It’s never “different this time.”
No Matthew, it never is. Much as some people hope!
Right on the money. Biotech is the latest bubble to burst, FANG is all that’s left.
Although, that is part of the definition of a bubble when it is blowing up right under people’s noses.
Carry kleenex Richard!
Nice Al, I will need it for holding my NEM for so many years 😉
this is the most ridicules junk I have ever seen! These central banks are the chart makers however they want to make them look! Free markets be damned! These guys have their foot on the markets’ neck. Long term gold will go up and when and how I have given up on figuring this stuff out!!
Almost impossible to figure out, Tim
Difference now is that the US is tighter on a relative basis than than the EU and is tightening while most other countries are loosening. As long as global currency flows toward the US, the USD will remain bid and commodities and gold will stay under pressure.
This is a game of relativity.
Yes it is Spanky.
Commodities getting utterly slammed today…
I believe in the next few months they’ll put in the 7 year low in the CRB index, as posted a number of times this year. (It isn’t a a 3 year cycle, as it was only 3 years once out of the last 5 cycles. The rest were near 7 years and we are arriving there in the next few months). Let’s see how Nov/Dec goes, and then I may nibble at some of the commodity players like Freeport McMoran, Teck, Vale, Glencore, Turquoise Hill, etc…
Frank is sure excited about commodities, and while he is normally bullish, the global PMI did bounce a bit….
Get Ready for Commodity Liftoff: Global Manufacturing Just Made a HUGE Move!
November 9, 2015 – Frank Holmes
The market is trading off a jobs report which has an accuracy of about plus or minus 30 to 40% as it is based on forecasts and not actual job creation.
GDX daily RSI is only at 38! The bounce today just sets up the strong potential for outright capitulation selling.
Double top in the works?
http://schrts.co/lND4he