Will the current trends in the markets, gold, and the US dollar continue?
Richard ‘Doc’ Postma joins Cory Fleck to chat about the current trends in the markets. We are saying be aware of some short term bounces and pullbacks to reset some of the technicals. As for long term investing it is important to protect capital right now and slowly pick away at the stocks you like.
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Hi Doc, How low do you think RGLD can go? Still think SLW is going below 10? Thanks.
BB; last week RGLD closed below its’ previous weekly closes back in June and July of 2013. If we get another couple of weekly closes down here, expect another leg down to at least 25. If SLW hits the 10 mark like I thought it would back a number of months ago, the danger is the possibility of 5—yes, you heard that right, 5. Frankly, I started wondering about whether we would hit 10 when we got the recent spike especially since it got down to only 11. However, a close below 10 is now a possibility. I’ll be able to better ascertain whether a 5 is in the offing if we close below 10 and I can look at some technicals.
This is why I think that the coventionals will go even crazier in the next year or so – they will beat down the PMs and their stocks whilst driving up the tech and biotechs.
Not sure about commodities – copper, iron, coal, etc – but suspect that they could be crushed in a zero interest environment if the Fed does not raise.
Thanks, Doc. RGLD is up over $3 today. $35.5 was quite a bargain. I wonder if that was the bottom or if your 25 will come to pass?
We will know by December which is its’ preference.
Doc – Agreed about the next 2 months having the potential for a further dip in PMs and the Stock Market. I’m watching for the lows in many mining companies for a place to start accumulating. I’ve been waiting for while to go shopping, and am pruning my mining equities shopping list.
Cheers!
I’ve been waiting on $1044.70 support in Gold to get tested (bounce or break it), and at that point the miners should be even more attractive than they are currently.
Here’s an interesting slideshow and Palisade radio show w/ Jordan Roy-Byrne:
Precious Metals Video Update: Gold Looks Bearish and Vulnerable
NOVEMBER 06, 2015
http://palisaderadio.com/precious-metals-video-update-gold-looks-bearish-and-vulnerable/
DOC…..which coins do you collect……….
Frank, numismatically, I’ve focused on 20 dollar St. Gaudens that were produced form 1907 through 1933.
What grade……
High relief……..?
I should have asked, do you have any high reliefs……….
Frank, I just purchased a 1907 high relief wire rim. There was a high relief flat rim for sale on auction that I would have liked to purchase but I thought my wife would disown me if I did. Most of the coins I purchase are a PCGS grade of 65 or higher and if I purchase a coin with a grade below that it’s because the supply is limited. Awhile back I purchased the Edmund Moy 1909 high relief coin which was fashioned after the St. Gaudens. By the way, it sounds like you have an interest in this area. Do you collect and do you collect St Gaudens?
Doc…….yes, My collection is wide, including currency. Been collecting since 1959, started with Morgans. Colonial copper, tokens, Large cents, Blanket notes(starting with 1862), obsolete notes, Star notes,.gold notes, silver cert,…etc. Everything I collect presently is graded.
I would be interested to in sharing any info, with you and your daughter, in regards to collecting.
DOC……I also, have a Edmund Moy 1909 …..with box, papers,….complete
When they first came out…….I told my collector friends I thought it was a sleeper coin.
So far so good…………
Another year down on the $Hui will take it back to the single digits.
CMC, looking that far out is problematic however I’m basing it on 2-3 charts. I would say that the stocks have the best chance to begin to see higher highs and higher lows starting in the fall of 2016—-as the year wears on I’ll probably get a little more bold in my feelings as the technicals mature.
I think they will engineer a crash in the markets between now and the Dec FOMC as an excuse not to raise rates. After which I think the conventional stocks will go into the bubble blow-off phase that Gary has been talking about.
very possible. But look at Amazon over 10 years and tell me that doesn’t look like a bubble already. 130% gains for 2015 already? On top of others.
I almost bought Amazon on a dip back in January Doc – but thought that the dip from something like 330 to 296 was not worth the risk.
Boy, they ramped that this year didn’t they?
Bob, you know Amazon is something else—everyone is betting on the come—when the come starts coming, it’s probably time to get out of the stock.
Well, I tried to short AMAZON but it took of again shortly after I took my position in Octobre. Luckily I just bet 200 $. Maybe its time to take another position.
You do have to admit their business strategy I’d just short of phenomenal.
Doc, thanks for sharing your outlook. What are some of your favorite PM mining stocks? BTW, it is ok if you’d rather not name them. Your market outlook alone is very valuable. Thank you so much for your analysis!
I believe that he particularly likes Wells Fargo, Ford Motor Company, Microsoft (one of Rick’s favorites) and Colt Firearms!
I could be wrong.
JL, I’ll share 4 that are on my buy /watch list. TAHO – 20 million of Ag producer, 3.1% div
NSU- African Cu producer, 5.8% div , low PE
Kgilf-Kirkland Lake -Au producer inCanada-.bought a Small position this am, & PVG a buy under $5. FSM under $2.10
I have been following two PM stocks: AG and GSS. Any opinion on those? Thanks for the interesting names.
Marty – I am a fan of Kirkland Lake, Pretium, and Fortuna. I am not as familiar with Nevsun, but have heard other commentators give it a thumbs up due to their copper price points.
Jay Linn – I’m a big fan of First Majestic for the longer term due to it’s focus on Silver (without as much base metals or gold mixed in), and the acquisition of Silvercrest was very wise. However I’m not familiar with Golden Star Resources. What do you like about it most?
Good companies.
GSS has a long operational history in producing gold in Ghana ( West Africa ). The stock is beaten down but the management claims that much better days are ahead for the company….
Thanks Jay. I don’t have a big exposure to miners in West Africa, but I like it much better than the strikes and Union holdups in S. Africa. True Gold is another producer in W. Africa that looks to have some good potential.
Some I’m looking at are AUY which I believe we could get for about $1.00. Another is CRJ which I plan on adding to when it moves down a little further again. KDX is in the process of being taken to the woodshed again and should move lower. KGI is another one I like. NG, SAS, RIC, SA and BGM. Silver stocks—ASM, PAAS, GPL and EXK. There are others but the above appear to be companies that will survive further down pressure. Another one that is liked by many is PVG—I’ll have to study that one a little more.
I might add that Marty has another good looking one in FSM.
Thanks Doc. What do you think of GSS??
Jay, technically; it looks like it wants to move down a little more at least to test its’ lows in December of 2014. I don’t know much about this company as far as fundementally and will have to research it.
A very good list Doc. I have traded in and out of Yamana, Klondex, Claude, Richmont, Great Panther, Pretiuman and Endeavour out of your list in 2015, but currently am out of all of them waiting for new entry points.
For additional Gold companies– check out Guyana Goldfields, Lake Shore Gold, Kirkland Lake, Sandstorm Gold, Detour gold, and Argonaut Gold.
On the silver front, I agree that Fortuna is a solid silver company (Great Panther and Endeavour are already mentioned above). Hecla, Couer, Silver Standard Resources, Alexco, and Avino Silver and Gold are also good Silver companies. Currently I only own Mandalay and Americas Silver Corp for the long haul, but plan on getting positions back in all the companies mentioned above in the next few months once we dip and swoon a bit more.
Good luck to all in their investing.
One thing I am watching is that the Tocqueville Gold (TGLDX) is near it’s 2008 bottom at $21.77. It is a well run ETF with an interesting weighting in gold mining stocks and tells me we are getting close to that 2008 level of support for a potential test. Will it be a double bottom, or will that support break?
Here are the holdings & weightings in the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX):
*It’s a dang good list of companies, so a great overall ETF.
Current Holdings for : TGLDX
Symbol As of Date Shares MV Weight Company Name Issue
RGLD 7/31/2015 999,700 50,404,874.00 5.57 % ROYAL GOLD INC COMMON
FNV 7/31/2015 1,127,700 45,785,732.00 5.06 % FRANCO NEVADA CORP
AEM 7/31/2015 2,006,558 44,404,033.00 4.90 % AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD
RNGXF 7/31/2015 676,200 40,822,194.00 4.51 % RANDGOLD RESOURCES LTD
GG 7/31/2015 2,734,360 36,434,412.00 4.02 % GOLDCORP FGN COMMON
EGO 7/31/2015 9,191,885 31,620,084.00 3.49 % ELDORADO GOLD CORP
SLW 7/31/2015 1,784,875 23,346,165.00 2.58 % SILVER WHEATON CORP
SMF 7/31/2015 10,314,200 21,701,077.00 2.40 % SEMAFO INC FGN COMMON
MVG 7/31/2015 2,960,700 21,050,577.00 2.33 % MAG SILVER CORP FGN
THO 7/31/2015 2,322,800 18,897,115.00 2.09 % TAHOE RESOURCES INC FGN
NEM 7/31/2015 1,099,300 18,874,981.00 2.08 % NEWMONT MINING CORP
MLA 7/31/2015 6,933,800 17,972,689.00 1.99 % MALA NOCHE RESOURCES
PAAS 7/31/2015 2,398,098 14,964,131.00 1.65 % PAN AMERICAN SILVER
BTO 7/31/2015 13,927,100 14,901,997.00 1.65 % B2GOLD CORP
NGD 7/31/2015 6,660,640 14,653,408.00 1.62 % NEW GOLD INC
NG 7/31/2015 4,181,300 12,752,965.00 1.41 % NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
NCMGY 7/31/2015 1,500,000 12,356,734.00 1.36 % NEWCREST MINING LTD
AGI 7/31/2015 3,210,000 10,432,500.00 1.15 % ALAMOS GOLD INC
RBY 7/31/2015 11,275,000 9,655,542.00 1.07 % RUBICON MINERALS CORP
AUY 7/31/2015 4,837,412 9,481,328.00 1.05 % YAMANA GOLD INC
OGC 7/31/2015 5,250,000 9,072,141.00 1.00 % OCEANAGOLD CORP FGN
ALIAF 7/31/2015 4,126,800 8,456,493.00 0.93 % ANATOLIA MINERALS DEV
PG.TO 7/31/2015 4,857,660 7,437,028.00 0.82 % PREMIER GOLD MINES LTD
IMG 7/31/2015 4,883,396 7,422,762.00 0.82 % IAMGOLD CORP FGN
GLDBULL9 7/31/2015 5,000,000 6,893,000.00 0.76 % GOLD BULLION
KOR 7/31/2015 13,980,901 6,286,579.00 0.69 % CORVUS GOLD INC FGN
SSMR 7/31/2015 1,633,545 4,900,635.00 0.54 % ~SUNSHINE MINING &
CNL 7/31/2015 2,039,900 4,492,038.00 0.50 % CONTINENTAL GOLD LTD FGN
BCM 7/31/2015 7,413,200 4,421,223.00 0.49 % BEAR CREEK MINING
SPM 7/31/2015 26,190,819 3,770,147.00 0.42 % SCORPIO MINING CORP
IVN 7/31/2015 6,842,800 3,714,790.00 0.41 % IVANHOE MINES LTD FGN
KGC 7/31/2015 2,002,000 3,643,640.00 0.40 % KINROSS GOLD FGN
ATC 7/31/2015 11,516,891 3,522,389.00 0.39 % ATAC RESOURCES LTD FGN
ELD 7/31/2015 1,000,000 3,440,762.00 0.38 % ELDORADO GOLD CORP FGN
CAH 7/31/2015 2,990,878 2,186,187.00 0.24 % CATALPA RESOURCES LTD
YRI 7/31/2015 1,002,906 1,986,104.00 0.22 % YAMANA GOLD INC FGN
THM 7/31/2015 5,738,836 1,392,815.00 0.15 % INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL
ANTM 7/31/2015 8,075,000 1,312,029.00 0.14 % ANTHEM INC COMMON
AMM 7/31/2015 2,066,667 1,264,161.00 0.14 % ALMADEN MINERALS LTD
RK 7/31/2015 6,400,000 807,432.00 0.09 % ROCKHAVEN RESOURCES LTD
EASV 7/31/2015 66,484,933 635,441.00 0.07 % EAST ASIA MINERALS CORP
AUQ 7/31/2015 1,411,437 561,186.00 0.06 % AURICO GOLD INC FGN
IVN 7/31/2015 1,039,579 536,144.00 0.06 % IVANHOE MINES LTD FGN
GDFDY 7/31/2015 166,249 450,243.00 0.05 % GOLD FIELDS LTD COMMON
FNV 7/31/2015 1,500 60,810.00 0.01 % FRANCO NEVADA CORP FGN
thanks for posting…….EX……………..
You’re welcome FFM CCF. I am very curious to see what the Tocqueville Gold fund will do when it approaches that old 2008 bottom.
There are also a number of stocks I recommended to Doc up above that I would appreciate anyone else’s perspectives on them (good or bad). I’ve traded most of them this year or last on the counter-trend rallies, and like them longer term for fundamental reasons as well.
Cheers!
Between Sprotts and Tocqueville funds………you can see what they are thinking…or what they are holding ….might give some added insight, since they have boots on the ground………jmho
Yes, that’s the way I look at too. They are very plugged into the sector, pay their research analysts handsomely, and I like to see what they weight the heaviest as that is what they are betting on. Doesn’t hurt to keep tabs on how they re-balance their holdings over time…..because they have BOOTS on the ground.
Thanks OOTB……Das BOOT.
thanks for the input……………………..
The Doctor is spot on , once again.
Thanks for your insights, Doc!
New firm policy on the site: NO MORE COMPLIMENTS TO DOC. GROUNDS FOR IMMEDIATE expulsion!
So many people may get expelled.
OK AL, PER THE NEW POLICY, LET ME BE THE FIRST TO TELL YOU HOW “WONDERFUL” YOU ARE!!!
All The Best,
JIM
JIM..Careful..or you could end up with brown lips…haha
& a tip, never ever praise the host , otherwise the Big Fella will get a Big Head & start charging us for his company, & the use of his site.
Funny Irish. I do like the Big Fella and think he does a good job….but appreciative that he doesn’t charge us for his company or the site.
HERE’S MY CURRENT PERSPECTIVE. OIL DOES NOT SUPPORT PRECIOUS METAL PRICES AND HAS BEEN THE CASE NOW FOR OVER A YEAR. ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SAYING TO BUY IS “WRONG”. All of you have been Dead Wrong or 95% of the board.
There have been many calls for a turnaround in gold and silver since 2013. In fact, the calls were not just for a turnaround, but also calls for $10,000+ gold, and $400+ silver, starting in 2014. It became apparent to us in the first half of 2014 that it would end with a whimper, just as 2013 did, and as 2014 continued, it seemed equally as likely that 2015 may not fare much better, and it not only did not, but it got worse with lower prices and the prospects for still lower prices to come. This puts the first part of 2016 in question.
I chose to comment on the Syria situation because it seemed
to address the fact that gold and silver would not show any signs of a turnaround for as long as situations like Syria exist with zero fear impact to move gold higher. We say fear impact because there is a greater probability that the Middle East, and Syria in particular could ignite WWIII.
It makes no sense to discuss fundamentals as applied to PMs because they are inoperative at the present time, thanks to globalist US central bank manipulation, [throw in the UK].
It is taking far longer than most expected for gold and silver to reflect the incredible world imbalance between issuing endless fiat, corrupting bonds, and hiding everything behind a shadow derivative market.
The Obama administration is doing everything it can to create the potential for eminent disaster on top of the disaster it has created in creating ISIS as a means of unlawfully getting rid of an elected president in Assad. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are also doing their part to make a bad situation worse to make sure Shiites do not gain any more power or control in that trio’s backyard.
If these unfolding events cannot bring to bear any impact on the price of gold, then gold and silver will remain as mired down at low levels as much as the US has remained mired down in its failed policies throughout the Middle East in its destabilization efforts to being about change. Russia’s support of Assad has exposed both the duplicity and ineptness of the US trying to get rid of the Syrian president.
Americans live in a media bubble that precludes them from hearing what is actually going on in Syria, even Yemen. Let us back track about 6 or 7 months ago. Russia had proposed a UN Security Council resolution prohibiting the use of Space/Cosmos for military purposes. Guess which country vetoed it? A few weeks later, Russia renamed its Air Force to Air-Cosmic Force. There was zero media coverage. Absolutely none! Then, just 2 weeks later, a US satellite was blown up, ostensibly because of a “sudden temperature increase.”
We will never know what the purpose of the satellite was, but it is odd that this happened, and it is an example of the subsidiary events that do not seem directly linked to the Middle East, yet the common denominator linking the US is Russia. The globalists want Russia subdued into submission, and Obama is doing what he can in the service to the globalists to bring Russia to her knees, but Putin has become an embarrassing thorn in the sides of the globalists and Obama.
Recently, Laura Seal, spokeswoman for the US State Dept, said Russia was bombing Syrian hospitals and killing civilians. When pressed by two reporters, one from RT [Russia Today], she refused to give any specifics. [Hard to justify lies when pressed for the truth.] However, the US has admitted, on record, to bombing a hospital in Afghanistan, a Doctors Without Borders hospital, killing 30. Further, civilians fleeing the hospital on foot were shot down by the planes, according to surviving witnesses.
Not only has there been no US media coverage keeping the American public [un]informed of events, there has been no accountability for the Nobel Peace Prize recipient Obama’s failed intervention in Syria being responsible for the loss of over 300,000 lives and the displacement of over 4,ooo,ooo refugees. Instead of trying to defeat ISIS, which the US claims is one of the worst imaginable terrorist organizations, [created, financed, and armed by the CIA], Obama is ramping up ammunition drops to ISIS and other terrorists and sending more troops to Iraq to halt Putin’s momentum. The chance of a major war increases everyday.
Syria has officially asked for Russia to intervene, and Syria has also told the US it is neither wanted nor needed. That has not stopped Obama as he and his neocon advisers have decided to put 30 – 50 special ops advisors in Syria, aka boots on the ground, something Obama promised not to do on at least 16 recent occasions. Of course, Obama has an unblemished record for not keeping any of his promises.
[Neocons are all for curtailing civil liberties, free markets, and want to see national identity cards introduced in the US to easier track people].
It is no coincidence that just a few weeks after Russia began bombing ISIS strongholds and killing large numbers, embarrassing the US again, a Russian commercial jet airliner mysteriously exploded in mid-air, killing all aboard. Interestingly, it was the US that was first to claim that a bomb had been placed on board the flight. As another aside, it should be noted that Israel is in charge of Egypt’s airport security. [What could go wrong there?]
What led the US to express that conclusion? It had a satellite thermal image of a bright flash occurring just as the plane was destroyed in the air. How interesting the US would be following by satellite a Russian commercial flight out of Egypt that happened to capture the explosion in real-time. Why would the US be following a routine commercial flight out of Egypt by satellite?
Recall how last summer, 2014, when Malaysian flight MH-17 was shot down while flying over Ukraine. You can bet that the US was closely following this war region by satellite in an area where it had an active interest, yet for some reason, it never spoke out about having satellite images of that flight when actual thermal images existed. For those with short memories, the day after the downing of flight MH-17, Obama announced that the plane was downed by Russia, accusing Putin of being involved. There is a reason why Obama never uttered another accusatory word since, and he certainly never retracted his accusation against Putin.
With the downing of the Russian jet, killing all aboard, how does Obama respond?
On Tuesday November 3rd, U.S. Defense Department spokesperson Laura Seal announced that twelve F-15C air-to-air combat planes are being sent to the Incirlik Turkey Air Base for deployment in Syria against Russia’s Su-30 air-to-air combat planes. Neither the F-15C nor the Su-30 can destroy ground-targets, only air-targets — enemy planes.
It is important to understand that the F-15C planes cannot destroy ISIS ground targets. Rather, the planes are solely for air-to-air combat. Guess which is the only country authorized to fly in Syrian air space? Yes, Russia. So Obama is deliberately sending in planes that may eventually be used against Russia’s Su-30 fighters.
Can there by any doubt in anyone’s mind that the US and the Obama regime are deliberately interfering in another sovereign country’s affairs, especially after being told the US was not welcome there? The US has been doing everything possible, for decades, to subdue, and destroy, if necessary, Russia? Why else would the US be doing everything possible to place NATO bases as close to Russia as possible?
If, and everyone hopes it remains “if” and not when, WWIII is started, it will be from the direct actions taken by the most aggressions/suppressive nation on the planet, the corporate federal UNITED STATES, owned and directed by the globalists.
Many, if not most Americans still believe the federal government is there to protect them, in some way. We always advocate that people do their own due diligence and not take our word for anything said in these commentaries. Every US citizen was declared to be an enemy of the federal government by an amendment to the Trading With The Enemy Act in 1933. It is harder to verify now on the internet because a lot of information is being “sanitized,” but persistence will pay off. The federal government is not why people think.
It was a matter of time before the Federal Reserve fiat issue “dollar” would renew its upward pressure. The Fed is irretrievably caught in its web of fiat self-destruction, at least for the US and a good part of the EU. More than likely, the globalists are grooming the Yuan to replace the “dollar,” but China is not prepared to take over that role of the world’s reserve currency.
It is not impossible to say China may never take over that role, but if it is to be the globalist’s Special Drawing Rights [SDRs] that become the next de facto world currency,
China will want to and will play a more important role and have a greater say. Russia and its Ruble remain a question mark.
As I have noted all year, the currency correction has been relatively weak, and weak corrections auger for higher prices. There is no way to know how much higher the deception of the fiat “dollar” will go.
SO GO BACK TO WORK AND STOP DREAMING !!!! The metals are nothing but a crap shoot and a losers bet at this stage. Will this board ever learn ????
Trades jake..thanks for the post..as far as metals are concerned..many people on this board own physical metals for insurance and security and are not concerned with the daily noise associated with the rise and fall of gold and silver..eventually the metals will have their day..until then I keep accumulating gold and silver when at the lows knowing that with the current economic situation eventually the collapse will come and with it I will be secure with the metals..in the mean time I will be the gold bug…stupid..uninformed…whatever the names are….rolls right off the back..got to know when to hold em and know when to fold em….
Thanks Gator and sorry you feel that way. There has been a shift. Unfortunately, that shift is moving in the opposite direction of the hopes of individuals who are positive in favor of the metals.
The odds are very high much more downside. Not to say there is absolutely no hope. There will be fake outs like this last one only to roll over to the downside again.
The collapse you mention will not be positive for the metals most likely in the near term either. That hair cut will most likely be very steep.
Maybe you get very very lucky Gator. All the best !!!
The gold mining equities are not leading the way either. Clearly a very negative trend and anyone who says differently should definitely refrain from making comments in the gold sector.
Some things never change. People stand to lose a lot of money thinking we are near a bottom. They come and go. When they leave, its with a lot less money.
Just read the post Jake.
Pretty good, cant disagree except for metals prediction, I have no idea of course but I think its a guess as to what becomes valuable/valueless.
That argument goes round and round with good points from every position.
Just my opinion, a person might want to have a few hundred onces of silver around, and as has been said a zillion times, 5% physical gold, of investable income.
People will disagree on amounts or % but to itch their own.
I might remind people, with as little as 10 onces of silver you probably own more than any other kid on your block and 30 onces of gold puts you in the top 1% of ownership on the planet. Or,so I have read anyway.
Comes a point when its more important to own “stuff” other than metal.
As far as Im concerned the metals are finite. trading is forever of course, but my goal, as with others, is just to buy as close to a low as possible and ride a bull for all its worth.
Bulls don’t take as many brains as bears.
I do enjoy world events thru a bugs eyes tho.
Thank you for the comment bb. The metals prediction is not 100% certain. The odds favor more decline. Dollar cost averaging will not be successful as gold for example plummets to the $500 to $800 handle. The last gold bottom completely shocked the gold community. The bear that lasted 20 years only to see a bottom of around $260.
Capital gains taxes are unfavorable as well. The big money is not buying. Why ? They will spend $200mil. on a painting though.
The metals look like the boulevard of broken dreams for at least a few more years. Purely a traders market not for the buy and hold crowd.
Like I have said to Gator maybe you get very very lucky. Its doubtful but you never know. All the best !!!!
The odds might favor more decline but it is ridiculous to suggest that gold is in for a twenty year bear or $500.
Matthew, never say “never”. Not suggesting $500 gold for certain but crazier things have happened in this market. Gold equities are not leading the way. They are lower and bullion is higher. The trend has shifted and so far its been blood in the streets. There is no sign that trend has ended.
To note, this gold bear might end much worse than anyone expects. With mining companies going insolvent in every direction and almost like a mass extinction.
Quite possible.
Possible, yes; probable, no.
Regarding which one is outperforming, GDX and USERX are up about 7% from their summer lows while gold is up just 1.5%. Whether this is part of the big turn or not, this is how a turn starts.
Matthew, gold was trading in Nov. 2014 at 1140. Now bullion is about 6% lower and the gold equities have been crushed as of today.
Gold equities are not leading us out of this bear. That’s what you see when the gold bear ends. We are not seeing that and that trend has not changed.
Much lower prices are coming.
The low for gold or the miners, so far, happened 2-3 months ago not in Nov 2014. The miners have outperformed since.
Yes, but the miners are much lower and bullion has held up far superior to the miners.
So, the miners are not leading. They are still very far behind.
Of course the miners are much lower, they’ve been leveraging gold’s bear market for four years and will have to go up many times just to get back to their 2011 valuation.
The point is that the outperformance has to start somewhere and since each bottomed the miners are winning. It will be very positive if gold makes a new low and the miners do not.
The miners priced in gold have been in a secular downtrend for decades:
http://schrts.co/qFHlXJ
They would have to quadruple against gold just to get back to their 2010/11 high. Are you waiting for that to happen before you’ll get interested?
Again, GDX and USERX are up about 7% from their summer lows while gold is up just 1.5%.
Matthew, looking at the last 3 months money flow is positive. Last 12 months money flow is still negative and with bullion only down approx. 6% the miners are down in some cases over 50%. Miners are 2 to 3 times leverage. 18% would be customary or a normal correction. I wouldn’t get excited and with oil depressed along with the whole commodity sector crashing there is nothing positive here.
Odds are very high unless oil starts to turn around more down side in the precious metal sector. We could be years away from a final bottom. All the best !!!
Re: “bullion only down approx. 6% the miners are down in some cases over 50%.”
YES! No matter when the final lows happen, THAT is how it will look. So that action is not evidence that the lows are not in place.
Clues for the turn will develop on the short term charts first and GDX priced in GLD just might be putting in a bullish H&S bottom.
Either way, GDX:GLD is up 8.5%+ since its 9/11 low. That means the miners are outperforming gold by that amount.
Im not saying it will happen, but we could drop to 400 gold, altho I do guess we turn higher somewhere between 1000-800, but we could drop to 400, at that point the question becomes for how long.
20 years is plausible.
No, bb, that is not plausible.
get um……..Gator…………..
most of them are wet behind the ears………..
long term for most is about 5 sec……….
most likely just turned in the comic books……and now is an expert……..
Long term for me has moved to 6 secs now….. 🙂
I am also thinking (based on the language used) that Original JJ – who became Mary Smothers is one of the 2 “Traders” that showed up since Mary left…… Just a theory until I see more SPOOS talk.
Truth is a rare commodity these days. Green around the ears and toes ???? Learn to shift with the trend !
Excelsior, you’re not even warm. 20/20 hindsight commentary predictions. No !!!
Excelsior, fwiw, I do not believe that trader Jake is JJ. There are too many differences.
Yes, I meant Trader Terry Smythe.
Fair enough Trader Jake, You made me laugh out loud with the no 20/20 hindsight predictions that JJ is known for. 🙂
Matthew, I agree that Trader Jake get the green light, but go read JJ’s posts, and Mary Smothers posts and Trader Terry Smythe’s posts. By the way….they all left in a huff and puff, used the Spoos and Yen, hate all newsletter writers, and were rude towards most of the blog and made sweeping statements. When JJ left, Mary showed up, and when she left Trader Terry Smythe showed up…….(Ding, Ding, Ding)
I apologize once again Trader Jake, as I was undecided because your posts showed up more often when Trader Terry Smythe left. Cheers to you sir!
Excelsior, no need to apologize. However, thank you for your thoughtfulness. I found the comments to be humorous, not offensive. I do hope my pessimism towards the metals is not offensive either.
We can view it as a great opportunity if this bear continues for another few years. Anyone who has their hopes and dreams in this market currently will not take kindly to any future opportunity. A guy like Frank has his own reservations and to suit his own needs presently. I also found his commentary to be very humorous as well ignoring the gold equities and deflation looks as though it’s going to be persistent. Just look at oil and commodities. The world economy is now deleveraging.
Look at demographics. Aging population. It’s all about demand. The central banks will not stop the coming deflationary implosion. Precious metals will get caught in the financial hurricane and that spells for much lower prices.
All the best !!!
trader jake….., we know nothing about you……as a long time poster , we will see if you hold any fruit……..time will tell……….best……………..OOTB..FFM….
Trader Frank, just remember. Liars can lie, but numbers don’t lie. I.E. oil, commodities, deleveraging, over bloated debt, demographics aging population = weak demand and many other factors.
The numbers and facts do not lie. With that being said all the best !!!!
I do agree that we are de-leveraging globally in commodities like Oil, precious metals, base metals, and even fertilizers & Uranium have been hit hard the last few years. Having said that, I’m looking for a bottoming in the commodities over the next few months if the dollar moves a bit higher, and this would synch up nicely with the CRB index putting in it’s typical 7 year cyclical low. In the last 5 cycles in commodities 4 out of 5 have been around 7 years from trough to trough and one odd-ball one was 3 years. We’ll see how it goes over the next few months as many things are in flux on the global chess board.
Good luck to everyone in their investment strategy.
Excelsior, as long as you are not committed to this market in a buy and hold you will do well trading in and out. However, there is no sign even in several months this trend will end. This is a deflationary juggernaut in the beginning stages. Precious metals will not be benefactors until this trend has exhausted itself to full completion. More than likely outcome.
All the best !!!
trader jake……..any age can buy pm, gold has no boundaries , gold does not have any counter party risk(ie liars , fed. central banks)…….just saying………OOTB
“full completion”……..any body know when……….Everyone is just guessing.
BTW……Trader…what is your age group…..just asking no disrespect intended….thanks
Frank, gold will shine again one day. Just not now in the near term. We must get through this stressful deflationary cycle. Most likely no bottom until its complete and the year 2020 looks very highly probable date. Gold will bottom first. 2018 ? Millennials have no interest in the metals. With a severe economic contraction who going to purchase metals.
Need to ask yourself these questions. If your a well endowed individual like myself and age is not important and you don’t mind waiting another 10 years for the phoenix to rise in precious metals you have already won the battle.
The caretaker might even pay you a visit and someone in your family will benefit. Look at the bright spot. Even though the sun will never shine for you again, someone else will have fun.
Driving that new foreign car shopping at Neiman Marcus. All the best !!!
SOUNDS LIKE NWO ……..best…………………..OOTB
Look up………..great report at ….STG REPORT…..today
Frank, my last post to you was incomplete and lost the original message to you. Socialism is now becoming very popular and its starts with medicine. We now have socialism springing up everywhere. EBT cards etc. and many new social programs. The population is not interested in precious metals and their only concern is where their next meal is coming from. You won’t see anyone complaining regarding all the corruption in precious metals.
SGT and others you can’t listen to these guys and their fables/stories. They are always trying to sell something. All these guys are consistently wrong.
Until the people stand up nothing is going to change. Not because Sprott for example makes claims the dam is about to break.
If you read through my original post I have explained my position when it comes to the NWO and the globalists. Its all corrupted and will continue this way until citizens decide they have had enough. Socialism is increasing and citizens are with open arms and not opposing this corruption.
The next few years or at least though next year don’t expect anything to change in precious metals. More downside looks very likely.
All the best !!!
Trade Jake……thanks for your follow up. Your wisdom is earthly. Do not forget your maker. Remember all have a end.
Had us worried Doc. Thought maybe Gary put rat poison on your steak.
Funny. Yes, I was surprised Gary jokingly threatened that. I want Doc around so I can make more informed & profitable trades 🙂
Simple software upgrade allows C Eagles to carry iron bombs.
Hmmmm …
That sums it up Brian.
PS – I recommended Kirkland Lake up above to Doc, along with a number of other Gold and Silver miners, and want to give you credit for making me take a closer look earlier this year myself. I had a couple of good trades, but fundamentally I really like it for the long haul and will be picking up some more if we see the dip Doc is expecting.
Cheers!
Hey Doc, I heard you say you are looking to buy some more PM stocks in Summer-Fall 2016 as well as Dec 2015. My question, if you will, is what is your time horizon for these stocks to begin to rise in price? Thanks!