Gary’s thoughts are similar to Avi’s on the S&P
For our market wrap Gary joins Cory to discuss the comments made by Avi earlier today. We are all in agreement that the US equity markets have another run in them but how it will set up is going to take a little while.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Since when have fundamentals or breadth mattered? Just buy GOOG with full margin and you are set.
IBB and BKX would also need to break. I doubt AAPL will bring down the market by itself.
The market is bigger than just one stock . . even if it is AAPL . . . but the bigger downside scenario is still very real to me . . and the next week or two will tell the story. I am quite open minded right now.
+1 with Avi re: the market is bigger than just one stock.
Quick note to JP:
Using today’s close ($116.78), a move for AAPL toward $68 would represent a 42% decline.
So let’s go back in history 3 years ago, to get some “perspective”.
* At the end of 2013, on Sept. 21 (according to my chart on Stockcharts.com), AAPL hit its all-time-high back then at $94ish.
Between Sept 21., 2012 and April 19., 2013, AAPL pulled back from $94 to $52.
That was broadly a 45% decline. ===> a similar magnitude to the 42% that a fall toward $68 would represent.
At that time, AAPL was already the largest cap in the market. The largest in the world actually.
* During that same period of the 45% decline in AAPL share price, SPY (S&P ETF) went from $137 to $148 (c. +8%), and the Nasdaq went from c.3150 to c.3210 (c +2%).
I’m not saying AAPL going to $68 wouldn’t drag the market w. it.
Just showing that the DATA, based on historical precedent, prove that this “logic” doesn’t have to prevail.
My 2cts.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
People were buying it up near 800 and the charts were showing a correction would go to $380 and it did get there. A 50% fall is easily possible and how many variations can you really do on a phone and how much work can you do on a pad. Just yesterday Apple were saying there is no need for PC’s anymore. You have to have the pro workstations in large and medium sized companies.
Avi,
What changed your mind since the other day when you were bearish on a break of SPX 2080? You were looking for 2000. Why the hesitation now? What has changed?
It was all in the HOW we break it. If we break it “impulsively” . . an EW term of art for a certain pattern . . . then I get VERY bearish for lower lows in nov or dec. But, so far, it has not been clearly impulsive . . . which has opened up my mind to the alternative more bullish immediate possibility. I am waiting for the market to decide in this region before I am willing to trade a direction for 100+ points.
Thanks. Too close to 20DMA for me to continue downward and with holiday tomorrow, could easily bounce back to 2100. It will be interesting to see how the week closes and if gains can be held. That’s why I asked because at this juncture, I would not expect gains to hold.
Bill Holter, some great comments on the miners…………at Sinclair..jdsmineset.
Sorry, but Holter and Sinclair really have no clue . . but just saying two things . . 1 – UP 2- If down, then MANIPULATION
There is nothing to them other than that . .. and their perspective should be discounted . . . especially since they have badly mislead people for years.
Avi……..you have not been around the block yet………..
No disrespect intended……..
Beside you have not even listened to what Bill is saying about MINERS and value…
Stop thinking you know it all, because you do not………..JMHO
Oh,…..I do not know it all either…….
But, thanks for sharing your thoughts……………..
TRUE THAT SIRE!!!
S Holter and Sinclair have been “around the block?” Is that code for VERY WRONG!?!?!?? If so, I am certainly glad I have not been “around the block.” So, thanks for the compliment!!
And, BTW – – – why should I listen to “analysis” which has been wrong for years . . . do you think he has changed his perspective in 4 years since he was suggesting going long at the all time highs? Is there anything different he is saying? Doubtful.
We have been trading this to the downside correctly while he has been looking up for years. So, I really have no reason to listen to something that has been wrong for years . . . but just saying the same thing over and over. Eventually . . . he will look like a genius. But, I can assure you that all those who have been hurt by his suggestions for the last 4 years will not easily forget all the financial pain they have felt for being on the wrong side of the market for 4+ years.
So, thanks . . . but no thanks. I will continue with what has worked.
Avi , you do not have to slander someone for an opinion. Your time horizon is not long enough…….Just stick to trading….like trading professions.
AVI,
“Sorry, but Holter and Sinclair really have no clue”.
No disrespect intended, but after examining and comparing both of your careers up to this point in time, I would value & trust Mr. Sinclair’s working knowledge of markets and his accomplishments any day of the week over yours. It would be interesting to look 40-years into the future, compare careers once again and see which individual really didn’t have a clue!!
All The Best,
JIM
To say one word for years – UP – is not exactly much of a career.
Actually being able to navigate a market from both sides is what a true career in this market should be about. I stand by my record quite proudly since calling the top in gold within 6 dollars and having traded the downside successfully for the last 4+ years. And, only recently have we begun to look in the other direction. I think I have fared much better than either Holter or Sinclair.
From JSMINESET.COM
Jim Sinclair
Jim Sinclair is primarily a precious metals specialist and a commodities and foreign currency trader. He founded the Sinclair Group of Companies (1977), which offered full brokerage services in stocks, bonds, and other investment vehicles. The companies, which operated branches in New York , Kansas City, Toronto , Chicago , London and Geneva , were sold in 1983.
From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker.
He was also a General Partner and Member of the Executive Committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and President of Sinclair Global Clearing Corporation (commodity clearing firm) and Global Arbitrage (derivative dealer in metals and currencies).
In April 2002, shareholders of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (formerly Tan Range Exploration) approved the acquisition of Tanzania American International, a company managed by the Sinclair family. Following this transaction, Mr. Sinclair became Chairman of Tanzanian Royalty and now leads its efforts to become a gold producer and royalty company.
Most recently in 2013, Jim accepted the position of Executive Chairman for the newly formed Singapore Precious Metals Exchange.
He has authored numerous magazine articles and three books dealing with a variety of investment subjects, including precious metals, trading strategies and geopolitical events, and their relationship to world economics and the markets. He is a frequent and enormously popular speaker at gold investment conferences and his commentary on gold and other financial issues garners extensive media coverage at home and abroad.
In January 2003, Mr. Sinclair launched, “Jim Sinclair’s MineSet” which now hosts his gold commentary and is intended as a free service to the gold community.
Sorry Avi, but there is NO ADDITIONAL CAREER COMPARISON REQUIRED!!
JIM
Two general follow-up questions:
Do you trade your own market recommendations? What percentage?
Which provides you more income, trading or subscriptions?
JIM
Avi,
Sinclair is not an ordinary guy. He might be losing the battle for the time being but he is the important factor in this battle of titans. He has vision and knows the trend. His $1650 gold prediction at the time when gold was $275 puts him among the best. He came from banking elite family and knows the corruptive nature of current financial system. His bullishness on gold is not from a few charts. It is based on his understanding of the current system which is struggling and on its final days. You and I are tiny in comparison with the real insider like Sinclair. Please stop bashing him and listen what he is telling you. For me, even I don’t agree 100%, but it is very enlightening.
You ask how I make money?
Since my late wife became ill and I was living out of hospital rooms with her, my money has been made trading the markets.
But, I can ASSURE you Sinclair’s money has been made through his brokerage service and not trading, especially when you consider he has been suggesting the long side while gold has lost more than 40% and silver lost 75% . . . unless, of course, he has been trading opposite of his public suggestions.
And, even though he has an impressive background, if you don’t recognize that his analysis failed for the last 4 years, then I am not sure what else there is to say.
In comparison, not only did I call for a top to the gold market at 1915 (market topped at 1921), I called for a potential downside target of 700-1000 BEFORE the market even topped.
So, if you want to talk the reality of the last 4 years . . great. If you want to spin it any other way, then you are simply ignoring the reality and entering into the world of blind idolization.
Avi,
It’s not blind idolization, it’s called RESPECT. If you have been so PERFECT with your PM market analysis the last 4-years, why even bother running a service? Why not just live off of your trading revenue?
JIM
JIM
+1 Avi
Sinclair comes from an interesting background, to say the least.
Does a background help you with identifying the correct market direction?
That depends on your background, among other things.
Avi, you don’t have Sinclair’t track record. Just stop saying something which makes you look ignorant.
DITTO…….DRAG……, Avi has not been around long enough to profess he is experienced….jmho
I will give him some slack, and consideration, since he is a guest.
Calling for a crash in the S&P is the true contrarian call right here. All of the trend followers, gurus like Armstrong and newsletter writers think much higher highs are ahead. “US stocks are the only place to put your money” – FANG are in a bubble right now.
Me thinks that the next big/swing moves are, SPY will fall, and GDX will fail.
SPY was rising during QE. During the 1st 8 mos of this year, after QE ended, price went exactly sideways. Then the Aug crash. Now the backtest. Next up: the real crash.
GDX and GLD are way way oversold on monthly, weekly and now daily charts. This is a messy bottom. The falling SPY may temporarily put pressure on GDX, but not for long.
I’m still 100% in cash, and will trade what comes, but this is what I’m expecting.
argh! mis-spell – 1st sentence re-write:
Me thinks that the next big/swing moves are, SPY will fall, and GDX will *rise*.
+1
I think stock bears will get a little more “enthusiastic” tomorrow…
http://schrts.co/za9JPL
The money is moving into commodities. The stock market should drop shortly and commodities will blast off. ( not gold and oil )
Gold and oil might get a bid, but still a lot more downside for both.
If stocks crash commodities are likely to just get roasted further. Maybe gold would hold up better.
CAD weekly:
The explorers have massively outperformed the senior miners since March (currently by 39%).
http://schrts.co/KWUY2e
Make no mistake, the implication is NOT negative/bearish for the sector:
That’s and interesting chart on Seniors vs Jrs and they perform in good times versus bad. This was one of the reasons I mainly have traded the larger names, or held the larger names during uncertain period the last few years. However, there is no doubt that leverage and upside has more torque in the Jr producers, development companies, and explorers when the metals turn back up.
JNK is ugly:
That’s why they call it Junk.
There are about 15 stocks propping up the S&P.
You get a truer picture of the market with NYA:
http://schrts.co/km2D0i
Gold monthly:
Gold is worth five times more CRB than it was 15 years ago:
The so-called “King” dollar is not worth ANY more CRB than it was 15 years ago:
(LOL)
Matthew.. sil doc site has this article on gold core by Frisby saying gold is overvalued…
v strange for gold core to trot that out….maybe they’re short..
Agatha, I can’t disagree with the Editor’s Note at the end of the article:
Dominic Frisby is one of the more informed analysts on the precious metal markets and this is why we have had him on our webinars. We share his concern about prices in the very short term particularly for those trading markets. However, taking a longer term perspective we see gold and silver as being undervalued at these price levels.
While gold may be overvalued versus the wider commodities complex which have collapsed, arguably it is undervalued versus stocks, bonds, property, art and other markets many of which are near or at all time record highs … floating on a sea of artificial QE induced liquidity.
Note that their concern is short term and that they recognize that gold is undervalued versus stocks, bonds, etc (and I would add USDs!).
Gold is up substantially versus commodities since last year:
It has more than doubled versus oil and is holding onto its gains extremely well:
…Which is part of the reason I would favor the gold miners over gold right now.
Gold priced in the miners (GDM) is approaching a daily chart top…
Matthew……that is what BILL HOLTER WAS saying………value in the miners……
Thanks Jerry, good to know that he points that out despite working for a bullion dealer. That’s very James Turk-y of him. 🙂
Holter, does not have anything good to say about ….bitcoin., So, does that mean turk-y
and bullion basting for thanksgiving is out.
Several going points about the value of Gold versus CRB and Oil and yet the potential short term concerns. Also good point about the value being in the miners even more so than the metals at present.
Matthew,
To the best of my knowledge, when Bill Holter joined forces with Jim Sinclair, he stopped working for Miles Franklin.
All The Best,
JIM
Jim, …..I read , about two or three weeks ago…….Miles was the named dealer, exclusive for Sinclair and Holter. Check out milesfrankin.com
I get Andy Hoffman’s letter, and that was in one of the articles I read…hope, that helps………Jerry
Jerry,
Thanks for the update. I obviously missed that one.
All The Best,
JIM
Dow monthly:
All I could see was the daily and weekly.
Sorry about that, a subscription to stockcharts is required to see the monthly.
Can silver close below the Bollinger band for the eighth day in a row? Down 10 days in a row? I have never seen anything else do this. Completely surreal. It reminds me of the opposite of the USD action when I began its huge ramp. Not exactly bullish for silver.
PLATINUM ……ratio………….1.23………..$885…….down 13……hello………
$884 ….down $14
$880………….down,down,down
879…….downer some more
Interesting, the yen has been doing relatively good the last few days. Will it catch down to commodities or vice versa. I do think the yen is the key to watch for commodities.
Gary, Avi,
There may be one fundamental issue that could force the conventional market back to normal behavior I think, and that is Apple.
For months now, Apple has been a big question mark to me. Something is wrong with this growth story, as became evident in their supply chain (inventory levels, components pre-orders) as well as in China.
I think Tim Cook has painted a brighter picture than he should have during the ER-call last month (I don’t blame him: imagine carrying the full weight of the stock markets and their spin doctors on your shoulders that want to keep the markets up).
If Apple starts to fall, I doubt that the powers that be can keep propping up the markets, as huge international holders may start dumping their shares. Somebody recently pointed out a huge reversal Elliot wave pattern in Apple with a price target of $68. If that story plays out, we may still get a true intermediate cycle bottom, and it might go deeper then the 18 handle. Your thoughts?