A bit of a more in-depth Market Wrap
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For the most part, financial markets in the U.S. closed lower today. The S&P 500 is again nearing the 2000 level while the price of gold seems to be beginning a bit of a rebound. All eyes are on the strengthening US dollar.
JANET ” THE ELF ” YELLEN…………………Merry Christmas 2015, and God help us all in 2016!
Silver does it again, last minute nose dive before market close. I cannot remember how many days it has been doing that. It must be over a year. This is the oldest trick to induce damage on stocks. Someone must be desperate to bring silver price down.
Swing trade or trend change.. thats the point..
Gary didn’t say that he said gold may be making an ICL…cmon..
TURD’S VAULT
A2A with Catherine Austin Fitts
By Turd Ferguson | Thursday, November 12, 2015 at 5:14 pm
This is the first opportunity we’ve had to visit with Catherine Austin Fitts and what a treat it turned out to be. Catherine was very generous with her time and she answered a lot of questions for listeners so please be sure to give this podcast a listen.
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Funny , we have been talking about Fitts for years…………Glad to see TURD GOT THE MEMO.
All eyes should watch China, they have forgotten that the biggest problem our world has are too many inhabitants, global warming means nothing but trying to keep the world’s population in check is everything. China’s biggest problem are too many humans and now they want to increase their birthrate.
They want to allow a family to have two children and they are the biggest proponents of artificial intelligence, they will never be able to find jobs to support such a huge population. DT
Stay on target, and focus only on GDX.
A new high in our indicator, $TNX:!PRII, but no new low in gold:
Presumed that central banks heavily vested in the markets unable to achieve new highs will precipitate the rout in Major indeces. Gold prices to rise on lower interest rates and commodities stabilizing.
Rick Rule – Market Call Tonight:
I watched the entire show. Rick Rule has a unique perspective. Many companies were covered that people have mentioned on this blog, and a few I was not familiar with. Thanks for posting it FranSix.
It is a great interview. Thanks. It is always enlightening to listen to Rick. There are so few people thinking like him. That is why he becomes rich and others don’t.
I’m not so sure that their ‘client base’ is nothing so much as their own account these days:
http://ceo.ca/2015/11/12/sprotts-thoughts-market-chaos-creates-opportunities-rick-rule-says/
My god, stick a fork in Palladium. It’s going to continue crashing hard.
There is no way commodities and gold just conveniently bottom on an employment report or an FOMC decision. They will never make it that easy or obvious.
They ate going to crash the commodities complex and tell the miners to burn in hell. They will be cashing in their GS options and
…buying bankrupt miners for pennies on the dollar next year.
Looks that way. Sad.
Spanky – I am glad you brought up Palladium. It is weird that more people weren’t watching how insane that move has been this week.
I am so glad I’m out of most of my Palladium positions, but do still hold a position in Platinum Group Metals. It even crossed my mind to pick up some Stillwater Mining today in the selloff, but Palladium looks like such a mess I held off expecting more pain in this sector.
I’m actually a big fan of Palladium for the mid-long term, but will admit the chart looks terrible. It made lower recent lows today down to $535. The previous trough on Aug 26th was $532, and it is dangerously close to testing the prior low. If that low breaks then I don’t see major support again until $470-$490. Hopefully it won’t get that grim.
Anyways, very few follow Platinum, and even fewer follow Palladium and even fewer he miners or explorers in the PGMs. This is an example where I like the longer term fundamentals, but the technical picture is ugly at present.
Palladium……is just to off the beaten path for a phyz buyer.
Platinum is always a good long term buy…………..jmho
ISIS threatens to attack Russia. U.S. backed ISIS makes this a U.S. lead threat against Russia. According to my inside sources December could be the start of a world war. If so, ____________________.
Watch oil. The precious metals will not get too far away with everything depressed. This is where many gold bulls have made fatal errors especially those counting on cycle analysis. If war does break out I expect precious metals to take a very large fall/decline. War has never been positive for precious metals. Only after the dust settles. Economic contraction will have the same affect. No cigar for the metals.
Everyone who was bullish on platinum and palladium gurus like Rick Rule have been completely wrong. Some of the largest declines have been suffered in this group.
Gold is good or not for war time, I beg to defer. You can ask Al about how his family survived due to they had gold.
Gold is often life saver during war times.
True dragon, but today, there are a lot of places you couldn’t trade it for a cup of coffee.
If that is the case, people deserve to suffer in the coming hard times. I will trade coffee to the guy who pays me a gold coin.
BTW, do you think it make sense, not trading gold for a cup of coffee? How much does a cup of coffee worth, how much gold coin worth? If you don’t think it is stupid, I really don’t know how I evaluate your opinion.
I see this argument made often, and it has some validity, but imo it misses the point.
r.e. validity, I live in a South American country, and I recently knew an American who was trying to sell Kruggerands. Last I heard he was having a hard time finding a buyer at a reasonable price.
But it misses the point for various reasons. 1) it projects the current ‘uneasy normalcy’ into the future, as if perceptions of value might not change when crisis gets underway; 2) it implies that if gold isn’t useful for daily transactions, then it doesn’t serve its purpose”–in reality, gold’s utility is to conserve significant capital in concentrated form, and one who is using it for this purpose may recognize its shortcomings for daily transaction and plan ahead, e.g. by also holding cash for everyday needs and identifying strategies ahead of time for unloading it at a good price; etc.
The average person is far better off stocking up on tobacco and whiskey
No doubt it’s easier to sell or barter a bottle or a case of whisky at a fair value than it is a gold coin or bar.
The average person has little to no net worth. So can’t and don’t need to store significant wealth in a highly portable form.
All of this is simple logic, if one is willing to think it through.
Dragon, you havnt seen h videos.lol
Wether you think my opinion has validity or not.
Check them out, basically a fellow goes thru a drive thru and offers gold coins instead of a frn, multiple times, the answer is always to take the frn.
There is a video of a fellow say silver has no value in NYC, he goes to multiple places trying to get something for an once, after MANY attempts he finally finds a hot dog vender, he gets 3 hot dogs for his once.
Say what ever you want, but its hard to get anything on the street for PMs.
You either go to a coin shop or find a collector, the average guy has no interest in the U.S.
Chris is right, the average American is better off stacking tobacco/whiskey/pot etc
All that stuff and much more is far more liquid than PMs.
+1 GH
The American trying to sell Krugs was not too bright imo. With a little effort, one can always get a good price for popular gold coins such as the Kruggerand. You can’t peddle Walmart shares on the street either.
Whiskey and tobacco have not and will not perform like gold.
BB, I am surprised you really can not see why. It is not what it appears to be, my friend. When I see that video, I laughed and said that guy did not know what he was doing. He put a barrier of trust in front of gold. I would not buy a coin from stranger on the street either. It MUST be fake. Why does he sell something to me at such high discount? Is there a catch? If he sells that coin behind a credible coin dealer’s desk, he can get it sold instantly. Do you think a coin dealer say if you bring me a cup of coffee and I will exchange my real gold coin with you. Do you think there is no taker? People are afraid of fraud not gold.
I am not a super rich guy but I cannot store my wealth in wine. I have no room for it.
Dragon, don’t get me wrong.
Im a goldbug too. lol
Im just sayin the way it is.
IF the poop really ever did hit the fan, gold wouldn’t have much value. Not in the west anyway.
If dealers were closed. Yes you might find someone that would take it, but you would have to find the person.
Actual stuff that could be used? no problem trading with, THATS value.
Sure, nice to have PMs around, but a Mad Max scenario? bullets baby lol
Gold is good as long as we DO NOT have a shtf scenario, as Armstrong says, people lose faith in government, but society would need to stay cohesive.
The videos, show that people just have no interest in PMs, in your “scared of fraud” case, why wouldn’t a person interested do as the guy says? Just go into the dealer and check it so see its real.
They don’t because they don’t have enough interest.
Paper markets, people trading paper don’t care how much paper there is to physical because they have no interest in acquiring physical.
PMs is a niche market, why deceive yourself about it?
Really, 5% physical gold in a diversified portfolio, that’s it, that’s all there is to it.
If someone tells you there are riches to be had in gold ownership, they are nuts, find other people to discuss investing with.
All gold does is preserve purchasing power, that’s all its ever done, excluding spikes of course.
Gold is wealth sure, but there is no yield, you want yield for riches, buy an apartment building, invent something or find the business people want.
Gold wont do it for ya.
BTW. I don’t think Rick Rule is wrong. He is just early. He has to be early to deploy large amount of money and acquire companies. He is no retail investor.
Also, as far as I know, hes more a value investor than a trader. He invests with a time horizon of several years.
Florian Grummes just said what I’ve been saying:
“The GDX is holding up better than Gold.
Although it is still too early to draw profound conclusions I do like the behavior. At the bottom you want to see the miners diverging.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/grummes/grummes111315.html
Matthew go to 321 and look at Hubbartt
Again, I must question if analysts simply put their brains into “park” or if intellectual honesty simply no longer exists. Just because the metals tanked after QE3 was announced does not mean that it caused the drop, especially after they were so sure the opposite would happen. Yes, this is another example of market participants and pundits applying the fallacy of correlation implying causation, and explains why they get whipsawed so badly and so often.
I have also been hearing a lot of chatter about the effect of interest rates on gold. Many believe that a rise in the interest rate will cause gold to decline. So, many viewed this past week’s decline in gold as due to the Fed’s alluding to their raising rates in December. And, to be honest, I see this as another example of the “correlation-causation” fallacy. Since pundits and market participants saw the metals decline after the Fed’s jawboning about raising interest rates in December, many believe that it was the “cause” of that decline. But, what will happen if the Fed announces its rate hike in December, and the metals begin to rally? What will these pundits do and think? Will they be scratching their heads as they did with QE3, and then attribute a rally in gold to the Fed’s raising rates, but only after a 2 year rally in gold has passed?
While I am not saying that this will certainly happen, I can surely see the metals bottoming within the next month or two and moving into a new bull market. So, what pundits and analysts chose to view as the “cause” of the next bull market in metals really matters not to me. And, with their track record of being unable to identify market direction in the metals based upon news events, inter-market analysis, and fundamentals, I don’t think it should matter to you either. Their “logical” conclusions have an abysmal track record in this market. Maybe it’s time to do a “Costanza,” and consider the exact opposite of what most really think is right. Again, just something to think about.
By Avi Gilburt
ElliottWaveTrader.net
I agree with Avi completely.
Yeup. He makes some good points in the missive. (points we made on this blog many times…..but this blog is full of smart cookies and commentators that make great points on a daily basis).
Glad to see him changing and think more with reason. The cause of this phenomenon is that most analysts want to be right and have no confidence on themselves. Just like I said few people think like Rick rule.
Agatha……….great last two lines………….CCF.
There is no way the majority can be correct, never have been, never will be….ccf
This silver downward movement is historical in the sense that it has so little room to move and yet manipulators keep pushing it down relentlessly. This result in a mathematical improbability everyone can see. It is totally unnatural. Unless someone sits on it, the silver’s own volatility will result in some up days. Silver volatility is larger than the daily drops. Million year event may happen but not in this frequency.
+1
IF WE GET A 4 HANDLE IN THE BALIC DRY INDEX AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR…………..YOU KNOW THAT IT’S OVER!
Janet Yellen thinks that a high dollar will keep gold down, but she forgets that the dollar is made only of paper!