US stocks up, gold and oil down
Gary Savage kicks off the day with Cory Fleck. They chat about the upward move in the US markets which is looking like the downtrend from last week will not continue. As for oil and gold they keep on moving down.
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Agata….What good are cycles ?..They are very good , they can take you from A-B while not causing any pollution.
Just mucking about.
I guess silver will drop to $13 handle and comes back quickly.
Dragonite….I don’t no if you noticed, but silver has held up better in Euro terms , than the USD.
Same with Cnd$, our currency. It actually even better than gold (surprise). That is why I said above. The correction is always short lived if silver over-performs (means drop less) gold on the downside.
It feels like a dump gold cover silver day.
I am watching Fresnillo. This was on a short term cyclical high as gold and silver were starting their downmove. So there is room to fall for Fresnillo perhaps. It has now started down and has I think followed Au and Ag down. It will be interesting to see if it makes another new low:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FRES.L&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Good luck. I am only buy physical ETF now. Bought some SVM for the last couple of months
Haha no one’s right 100% of the time, geez. But what if Harry Dent is right just once. Now THAT would be something to talk about!
I’d give Gary a break though. He’s putting forth a valiant effort and tries to make sense of markets that simply DO NOT MAKE SENSE ANYMORE !!
I mean if people don’t like cycles maybe they should do their own analysis and take heat for not being right all the time.
Keep up the great work, Gary!
Harry Dent is right once? He predicted $250 for gold. It will wipes us out. I hope not.
Hee hee, perhaps it might get to 800 or 650 at worst.
The silver COT report still looked terrible last week. $10-12 is probably in the cards.
Miners have held in there, but my guess is there will be a purge before it’s all said and done that sends the $Hui below 1999 lows.
The Fed, ECB and BoJ are absolutely willing to sacrifice commodity producers at the altar of the rent seeking, leech banks. As long as they can keep the stock market going higher or even sideways to down at a slower rate of decline than commodities, stockholders will gain in real terms.
The bankers are salivating at picking through the bones of bankrupt miners. They will be buying gold in the ground for pennies. They are laughing in delight. And no loss if the miner goes bankrupt–its not like the stuff in the ground is going anywhere.
spanky…Now just why would the Gangsters , I mean Banksters want to by a barbaric relic that I buried underground.
Typo…that is.
The bankers are not dumb. If they can have their cake and eat it too, they sure as hell will. What could be better than cashing out of AMZN at $1000/share and buying mining assets for pennies or gold bullion at $600-800/oz.?
You seem to be in my camp, Spanky.
Sad, isn’t it!
It’s clear to me that Gary is doing the best he can. However this market is not a market, It’s a run away train and we are all onboard. Hat tip to Gary for having the cajones to even try. I’m pushing sixty and I’ve been around awhile and played many a market. This “market” is on LSD. And it’s gonna be a bad trip.
Don’t forget to give me a call Mr. Thailand.
With the high volatility in xop, I bought and sold 4 times this morning with nice gains. Would be impossible with gdx.
Look at HYG bouncing. If it gets a bid, and god knows why it would other than being oversold, look out. The daily chart is setting up an inverse h&s. $RUT also has the same set up. Low risk entry IMO. Go all in, full margin. If it breaks out, everyone I going to pile in and Gary is going to get his bubble phase. Every dollar floating around globally is going to pour into the US stock market.
Gary, any chance the outside day in gold on October 28 was day 1 of the daily cycle?
I feel that there are always two possibilities. In a manipulated market, the sharp rise is usually preceded by a slump in order to scare people either to sell or at least not dare to follow.
No. Gold needs to bounce far enough to be a clear cycle low. Usually a break of the down trend line is required.
for daily clrcle or ICL… or end of bear market…. or a lower low in Dec…?? a little confusing.
Thanks
I use to be a hard core gold bug and believed the PPT and the printing presses. So I went to Martin Armstrong world conference two weeks ago. He has been right all along. He said Euro is going to collapse capital will flow into US dollar – it will go parabolic and reach new highs (yes even higher than 1985). Gold will go down…. anywhere from 700 to 900. Nothing to do with PPT etc… but there is good news once it bottoms it will soar in 2016…… Garu has been wrong …cycles dont work…. look at the chart of US dollar and gold…. what is it saying. Better to trade currencies or something else than metals.
You could certainly be correct, David.
interesting David, Rogers was saying a few years ago that traders should learn currencies.
I’ll bet gold repeats the Feb-march 2015 type action. A meek bounce out of incredibly oversold conditions followed by a waterfall slam lower by another $50-100.
GLD I headed back to the 90’s. Unbelievable.
Gary mentioned the lack of the fed’s credibility bubble bursting. Folks, if it hasn’t busted yet, it isn’t going to until nukes start flying or WWIII breaks out. This farce of a market is not going anywhere until everything else falls apart. It will take a major G20 country finally saying enough is enough and pull out of bretton woods. There is no way that happens without violent revolution and that will be tough with disarmed citizens in most of those “developed” countries.
The safe bet is that gold and commodities are dead money (at best) for another 5-6 years, just like every other commodity cycle before it. The gold bugs today are no more right than gold bugs in 1980.
“”So Chris, you believe that the ‘experts’ on this show – Gary, Doc, Chris – are no different than you, guys just ‘doing their’ best? If so,””
Guppy,
I’m not a trader. I buy the same 2 stocks on weakness and accumulate Physical AU. Prety boring stuff. But…..
I would love to be a guest! Maybe you can talk to Big Al and put in a kind word.
I could tell everyone how I deal with the frustration of trades that don’t go my way.
Like go and get a Thai massage by a 45 kilo Thai lady that bends me like a pretzel.
($8.00) no happy ending.
Or eat fresh fish at my friends Italian restaurant with homemade pasta. He’s from Italy so it’s always perfect. ($5-$20 )
Then I call up one of my many Thai girlfriends, party all night listening to live Rock and Roll and at night we play hide the cannoli. (priceless). Yes I know she’s half my age and money might have something to do with it. (I accept that).
Then maybe have a cold beer on my condo balcony a watch the sun go down over the sea of Thailand while I fan my cojones listening to classic rock.
Maybe that’s kinda too boring for this crowd….
So do you think I have a shot a being a regular guest?
Give me a call at 360-606-1874 Chris, and let’s you, I and Cory talk.
No excuses now, Chris! 🙂
Chart looks like junk but when NUGT sets up I need to do some serious averaging down. I am bag holding at like $60!
Jason, I would average down on 3X like NUGT. They are fairly toxic.
Would not, sorry.
I have averaged down with success before but when I have about 10% was all I could squeeze out of them. I usually only hold them for a few days to a few weeks.
+1 Dragonite.
If I trade these, I have a clear stoploss, and get out if it doesn’t go my way. I already got burned on these, thinking I must be close to a bottom.
I am trading RUSL and SPXS right now running with stops. I use stop sometimes. Gary is not a fan of stops. I am a fan at times.
It definitely sucks to get stopped out only to watch it reverse and go the way you thought it was going to!
Chris in Thailand – I’d put both you and Irish on the show just to lighten the tedium of people trying to make intelligent and reasoned forecasts against an invisible mafia of criminals! Simply can’t be done until some prehistoric black swan swoops down and devours the lot of them.
PS Follow through with Al’s invite, and get him to keep his word. lol.
Hello Andrew….I would love to team up with Chris he sounds like a fun boy,wink wink….The problem is I signed a 10 year contract with mad Jerry 5 years ago ( the Big Fella AL was witness, that time we spent together at Vegas )HHHMMMMM.
So you see Me & Chris are never going to happen, because that Bitchy Jerryline has threatened to publish some , lets just say “INTERESTING” photos if ever I perform with another man.
I’ve been out of the marginable miners for about a month now so my juniors are down a whopping 1% today (GDXJ/GDX are down about 4.8%).
I got a few buy orders filled including AXU at 34 cents.
GDM is a few dimes away from filling its Sept.16 gap:
http://schrts.co/EADkwb
I’ve been watching some of the juniors myself, but have been out of the majority of my positions in mining stocks since Sept & Oct. I’ve been holding out for a little more pullback in PMs towards the end of this year, and based on the last few weeks and few days, I’m glad I held out….
As discussed on this blog repeatedly, I wasn’t sold on Nov 2014 being the low, or July 24th being the low, but have been waiting for the support levels at $1065, $1044.70, and worse case $993.20. (I’m not going back into all the reasons for these targets because I’ve posted about 2 dozen times on it all year long since February).
The point is that we’ve been waiting on waiting on Gold to get down to the levels since last year and all year, and we are finally starting to get there (it sure has taken long enough). Now, as we’ve discussed in the past, the miners don’t have to go as low as the spot metals will and don’t necessarily all have to make new lows. However, with the underlying commodity under pressure, then many of the miners will follow suit. The next couple of weeks may provide some excellent opportunities with these low commodity/high dollar/wonky general market conditions.
Gold is currently trading at at $1065.90, so we are right at my first target for support. If we get a bounce from here, then I’m playing it as a trade (because I’d want to see any bottom get tested a second time). If this level falls, then $1044.70 is my next line in the sand, and I’d buy more aggressively at that level.
Gold and Silver are starting to look extremely interesting to me at present, and as someone that is bullish longer term I’m starting to get excited. I’ve been overall bearish for years, and only traded miners for the counter-trend rallies and then exited those trades waiting for the next pull-back. Gold is finally getting to the level though where I’m ready to start building the longer term hold positions.
Ideally, I’d like just a little more pain and capitulation in the miners, some more hostile takeovers, and a few more bankruptcies to ring the bell that we are finally bottoming.
I know everyone is sick of bottom-calling after years of gurus, experts, CEOs, economists, commodities brokers, and the blog-o-sphere continually getting it wrong……time after time……on “The Bottom”, and agreed with a poster last week that mentioned calling a bottom is a fool’s errand.
When newsletter writers or “experts” continually call bottoms they lose credibility, and people start believing there will never be a bottom……. but there will eventually be a bottom in Gold. So, after putting in the longest and steepest Cyclical Bear market in recent history, we are in the range where that bottom is most likely to surface over the end of 2015 and first quarter of 2016. Like everyone, I’m hoping it will be sooner rather that later, but it is time to play close attention to Gold’s behavior.
Again, I never fell for any of the talks about a bottom in 2012, 2013, and early 2014. I kept the door open that Nov of 2014 could be a bottom (as many in the sector pronounced) and that when Gold surged in Jan that it could really have been a turning point, but it failed and I had pointed that out by February that lower lows were still coming.
On July 24th, when gold got down to $1071-$1076, it felt like bottom was closer, but I was on record stating it didn’t “feel” like the bottom, and while there was some bankruptcy/merger/sentiment wash, it wasn’t quite enough to feel like an all out “washout”. Gold also didn’t move down to my personal targets, and so, while I kept and open mind, I’ve posted repeatedly that we’d likely retest that zone, and if we did retest July 24th lows, that the odds were that we’d break lower.
Well now we have. What I will say is that we are getting further and further into the apex of the falling wedge pattern on the larger monthly charts, we are seeing the dollar surge one more time as I mentioned in April & May that we would see when the commodity cycle put in it’s 7 year low towards the fall (Oil is down, Copper is down, etc…). We have also started to see the general stock markets losing strength & conviction, and potentially topping out into a new Bear. The ingredients I was looking for in this financial stew are bubbling up to the surface so we have the perfect setup now….. it just may persist a bit longer is all.
Since we are flirting with the Feb 5th , 2010 trough at $1065 at present, I’m waiting to see if we at least get a bounce here. If Gold pops or drops further, but makes another move down in the next few weeks to few months into the $1044.70 – $993.20 range, then I’m sticking my neck out and calling that the Major Bottom.
2016 should be a breakout year, especially by mid-year to the end of the year, but I plan on positioning over time in the Mid tier and smaller producers, and about a dozen Jr explorers I’m keen on. I have started building up the dry powder (from a few good trades in other sectors and am watching to see how things play out in Nov/Dec. We could very well see the Major low, or at least the intermediate low in the next month or so.
Good luck to all in their investing and build those holiday shopping lists in the miners, because it is about time to pick them up on clearance sale.
Speaking of Takeovers……there was this announced today:
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Kirkland Lake Gold Agrees To Acquire St Andrew Goldfields
Tuesday November 17, 2015
http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-11-17/Kirkland-Lake-Gold-Agrees-To-Acquire-St-Andrew-Goldfields.html
…..and there was also this acquisition news…..so things are picking up a bit more as companies prune out their non-core assets to get cash and pay down debt, or as they merge and consolidate for strength in a new combined company.
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Osisko Closes First Portion of Royalty Portfolio Acquisition From Teck
Tuesday November 17
Nice brief and update….
Always glad to share mj12. Cheers!
More carnage for the commodities is showing up:
Teck Resources cuts 1,000 jobs, lowers dividend
BRENT JANG VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015
Cliffs to halt operations at Minnesota iron ore mine
Cecilia Jamasmie | November 17, 2015
http://www.mining.com/cliffs-to-halt-operations-at-minnesota-iron-ore-mine/
First Majestic Silver Reports 3Q Loss; Cost-Cutting Efforts Include Personnel Cuts
Monday November 16, 2015
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-majestic-reports-3q-loss-123555216.html
New closing low on the $Hui coming right up today. Once 100 is broken, kid the miners good bye. They will then proceed to catch down to gold. Silver is also due to get hammered. The caveat is the whole complex is due for some sort of bounce, which will provide just enough separation from extreme oversold levels to generate a final swan dive. Silver especially, is due to get absolutely bent over. Look at some of the silver miners today. Like I said, they are discounting bankruptcy, and have been for several years. Smart money would have come to the rescue ages ago if that weren’t the case. Nope the end game will entail bankruptcy of the vast majority of mining operations. Banks will take huge stakes in mines and bullion at that point. Beautiful. It really doesn’t get any better than that if you are a banker cashing in options at all time highs.
Doc, did I just read that you adjusted your outlook? a bottom late 2016 as opposed to fall 2016?
or is fall late?, maybe just me, I would think winter would be late.
I was also looking for the summer doldrums to be pretty darn low, increasing late 2016.
thx, Doc.
I really do agree with you, I was just wondering if you were taking it out a little further in time.
If ya get the chance, maybe take a look at some guesstimations of world production of PMs from about 2020-2025.
For me, thats the only fundamental I need to see gold will continue to do what it always has.
2016 sounds about right for a leveling off in price to me.
Unless Fitts or Hudas is right. lol, I will “split a gut” laughin if either one of them is.
Bought and sold XOP 8 times today with gains. Looks like the market lost the rally due to the bomb scare in Germany.
Just hold your nose and buy PM stocks when we get below 10 on the bullish gold miners percentage. At that point, everyone will be crying the blues and negative sentiment will be at an extreme. It works every time. At least so far. I think :). We are getting close….maybe another week or two.
Totally got my NUGgeTs crushed over in NUGT today! Ouch! And the chart looks like a disaster. Might as well be a pink sheet trade.
We need to change RICHARD (DOC) to “Stock Yoda”.
Stock Yoda = Doc Yoda…….I love it.
Question, why interview Gary he is never right, it has been great fading his bull shit.
thats my question as well…..99% is…. certain… what good are cycles..?