Why we suggest listening to everyone and then making up our own mind.
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Does the Plunge Protection Team Exist? Is there a specific cabal constantly working to drive the price of gold down?
Maybe, you investors need to dig much deeper to realize profits than just those two factors.
Hedge funds have trillions of dollars, you don’t even need to talk about wall street banks, to know that trillions of dollar with 20-30-40 times leverage can push markets around.
Chris why did gold go up in 2004 then…w rising rates?
First, while nominal rates rose, real rates did not…”inflation” was picking back up.
Also — one of my favorite gold stories of all time which I’ve told on the show before — the same Alan Greenspan who saw fir to smack gold down when it unexpectedly popped to his key $340/ounce level back in 1999 was one of gold’s biggest cheerleaders in the wake of the 2000-2002 recession/deflation stock crash. By then, he very publicly pointed to a gold price north of $340, and rising, as proof that he had licked Japan-style deflation. And smart traders who saw Greenspan leading the cheers piled in.
thanks chris… Bernanke said last yr he wanted Citadel to pay his salary in gold.. not sure that got much coverage..
IF , ben reports his earnings to the irs, will it be at $35 per oz……thereby avoiding the real value/income earned………………..
Great commentary today Chris Temple, and Cory had some great and grounded points as well. Good stuff guys. I completely agree that the PPT is not the reason the markets went up after the Paris terrorist weekend events.
Last week in the S&P on Wednesday, it was teetering on the brink of breakout or breakdown. It was whip-sawing, but we were waiting to see if $2069 on the S&P would fall, and then when that level was taken out Thursday morning I posted that I went long volatility in TVIX and would hold until $2024 on the S&P (Avi Gilburt’s target for the first drop down).
On Friday near the close the S&P got down to $2023, and the exact target near $2024 was reached, so I sold into the strength in volatility expecting a pullback on Monday (before I even knew about the Paris events that night).
To see the markets recover on Monday was exactly what one would expect to see technically…..no intervention needed. Just a corrective bounce. I also mentioned yesterday that since the S&P had closed at $2053.19, that it would like likely test the 200 day MA near $2060 and then get deflected down. Gary didn’t feel it was significant in the interview earlier today, but didn’t the S&P go up right over the $2060 level by a few bucks and then get deflected back down? Seems like the MA did act like resistance, where previously it was support……pretty typical behavior and no manipulation theories are required.
Lastly, there are some of us that didn’t believe Nov 2014 or July 24th of this year as the final bottom in Gold. I hadn’t ruled out the July 24th level completely (because it was the more recent lowest low), but I felt it was most probable Gold would test that low again. I was open to the philosophy that it may not reach it or may double bottom there (anything is possible), but remarked a number of times that if that low was tested again, I felt it would break lower.
My downside targets where I felt Gold would have some support and be the area I’d expect a bottom to occur since the beginning of this year have been $1065, $1044.70, and $993.20. (I’m not getting into all the reasoning because I’ve posted on it a few dozen times all year). The point is that gold falling below $1071-$1076 from July 24th to lower lows is not a conspiracy….it’s exactly what we expected would be most probable if the July lows were tested. Currently we are down testing the Feb 5th, 2010 trough at $1065, and this is a likely place for pop. If it doesn’t hold then $1044.70 is on the menu. It is not a conspiracy, it is not evil forces suppressing Gold; it is simply larger institutions shorting all commodities, a strong dollar, and technical levels playing out. No big deal really.
This is the buying opportunity coming up at year end that a number of people like Doc, Avi, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Gary Wagner, and many others (including myself) have been predicting based on the trend, charts, and technical analysis.
I also mentioned in April & May that the dollar would likely surge at year end in Sept/Oct…. based on how things played out in March, that there would be dollar weakness in late summer, but that this trend would reverse into the Fall (Sept/Oct). Well the dollar has shown renewed strength and is knocking on 100 again, (even though some said 98 would “never” be seen again).
In Feb, April, May I mentioned I saw Oil remaining weak, that I saw a high of $64 and was waiting for low in the $38-$40 range, and mentioned $38 a half dozen times. When a number of talking heads and even a few on this blog got bullish on oil and thought it would be $70-$80 by year end, I said they were way off, and that Oil would top and drop to near $38. Well it did right on the money. This is not a conspiracy against Oil, or OPEC’s master plan…..it is just good technical analysis.
Lastly, I mentioned that the CRB and commodity complex would likely put in it’s 7 year lows in the Fall. I posted charts showing definitively that the CRB has had an average of 7 years between trough to trough 4 out of the last 5 cycles. (with only 1 out of 5 cycles being 3 years, so I still don’t understand Gary’s 3 year cycle in commodities…..it is 7 years) I mentioned in the summer that in the next 6 months would be this window for the 7 year bottom in commodities. Well 3 months later lets look at Oil down, Copper down, PGMs down, PMs down….
We are getting into the perfect storm here where the strong dollar is pressuring the commodity complex just like many of us expected into the Fall, the stock market is wobbling, and volatility has been too low for too long. This is not the result of evil forces, just market forces.
Gold was due to test it’s July lows with a strong likelihood of making lower lows and today it did just that. Great! This is exactly what you want to see so we can put in at least an intermediate low and maybe the major low in the next few weeks to few months. This is the time we’ve all be waiting for to load up on the quality mining stocks or ETFs or buy more bullion…..whatever floats your fancy.
When commodities (including Oil & Gold & Silver & Platinum & Palladium & Uranium & Copper & Tin & Nickel all bottom in the next quarter) that is when you want to get aggressive with the buying. Now is when people will start throwing in the towel, and that is when hedge funds will finally move in because the valuations are so stretched to the downside they are getting silly. When the prices start moving up and catch many off guard, that won’t be manipulation either……it will be money flows coming back in to the beaten down survivors. Hopefully we will be smart enough to buy when these opportunities present themselves.
Some may be better served to spend more time studying cycles, charts, and technical indicators, and less time with the conspiracy blame game and they’d make more money. Good luck to all in their investing.
For clarification, the pullback I expected on Friday was in Volatility for Monday, because I bought the TVIX on Thursday morning and held until Friday afternoon. Volatility is often inversely related to the general stock markets, so a pullback in volatility equated to an increase in the S&P and Down on Monday….and that is what we saw. This would have happened Paris or no Paris in my opinion.
Chris, just for fun, if you have a chance, take a listen to Catherine a Fitts interview @ sgt report.
You’ll have to give me a link or something…don’t know specifically what you’re referring to
Hi Chris ,
SGTreport.com
In search box: Catherine Austin Fitts, pan down page below Goldsmith video, hit link MP3
The most interesting woman I’ve ever heard interviewed the last 10 years
Marty, just saw you like Fitts, really smart girl, anyway, you will appreciate Karen Hudas too I think, she was a lawyer for the world bank or imf or sumtin I forget.
I really like her info, not sure about the alien stuff of course, on the other hand, there seems to be a lot of notable people starting to mention aliens.
Makes ya wonder.
But aside from that some good insight.
DITTO ON FITTS……Marty……….
I kind of agree with just about everything that Chris says.
Re: Agatha’s quarstion: “why did gold go up in 2004 then…w rising rates?”
Well, simple. Gold was in a bull market. As Jesse LiIermore’s mentor said, “It’s a bull market” applied then.
Now, gold is in a bear market. All news is therefore going to be an excuse to sell off. There is no end in sight until the US dollar tops and don’t hold your breath until that happens.
The secular bull market in gold was great but it is over and for a long time. I don’t even know if gold would go to new highs on the next US dollar downturn. There is perhaps a long term generational secular change happening here.
To get a new gold bull market you are probably going to need a strong Euro but can you see the EU even starting to talk about reforming their system? Nope. They are just trying to print money and debase it even after the recent falls – and that process has only just started. Perhaps the Eurozone QE will work wonders for a few years as it has in the USA but that will just delay the real crisis in the Euro to another day, perhaps in 5-10 years time.
It is going to be interesting to see what they do with the Chinese Yuan and whether when it floats it will go up or down.
It will be interesting to see if central banks start to accumulate Yuan reserves and whether the Yuan will be bought by selling US dollar s or by selling EUROS.
As for all the conspiracy stuff regarding gold it is irrelevant. It is either in a bull market or a bear market, period.
This chart solves the problem of where inflation resides by chucking out sny complex formal inflation measure and uses interest rates vs. Pring’s index. This can’t be fudged to look any better or worse, and has been fairly accurate at describing that fundamental as inversely correlated with gold prices:
Some of that money printing falls into our pockets too. We should not complain about the Fed.
I disagree, Paul L. From my perspective, the Fed’s actions are key to the increasingly unequal distribution of wealth.
Even for those who have lots of paper assets that are benefiting, living in a devolving society isn’t a great win.
The only investors that would complain about a PPT would be the shorters but for the rest of us the majority, it limits our losses.
I think that folks like Chris and others here see a lot, as far as can be seen.
But what do we know? Who here has hands on, in house, experience? Who worked at the Fed? Worked at a HF? – type thing. I think we have very smart guesses, but not knowledge. Am I wrong? Who has in house knowledge?
And, me, because I certainly don’t know, decide to not say. Just me.
That’s why I just follow the price in the charts. It’s the only fact the common people have.
I’ve worked at a major s/w company, and found 1st hand that what VP’s say in public, is sometimes EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE of what they are thinking, and doing.
Experience tells me to distrust EVERYTHING that ANYONE says, even if it is logical. I only respect hard cold facts.
That said, I think Chris is probably right! 😉
Al, my Dad went to Yale, and then Harvard. I know some of his buddies. Believe you me, what they say and what they do are 2 different things.
Hudas and Catherine Austin Fitts are not to be compared
the later is legitimate
Agatha, does that mean the Fitts aliens are real but the Hudas aliens are not?
So if the Fed runs up the white flag, does not raise interest rates and inflate or dies… what benefits?
Conventional stocks? Precious metal stocks? What about base commodities – copper, iron, coal, etc?
Do they all go up or will it all just go into the conventional stocks such as your tech stocks, your biotechs, etc, which we have seen booming in recent times?
Thank you thank you thank you thank you!!!