A focus on the US dollar and how it is impacting the precious metals
Gary Savage and Cory Fleck kick off today focusing on the counter trend move down in the dollar this morning. This move in the US dollar is helping gold and silver move up but is it anything to fully jump on board with?
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Good work Jason. Yep miners closed strong yesterday and were the clue that $1065 support (that held Tues/Wed overnight) was the short term bottom, and that we’d get a bounce in gold. I am glad to see the follow through today and bought a couple of miners myself.
Cheers!
ASM is setting up for a buy. Got a bull flag on the chart but not enough indicators for me to buy yet.
I actually picked some up earlier today. It is one that I want to start building a position in longer term, so if it goes up 10-20% I’ll trim it to bring the cost basis down and buy more on the dips. If it goes down, I’ll just add another tier and average my cost basis down. I like Avinio Silver and Gold for a number of reasons mid to long term.
GDXJ reversed at fork support yesterday:
So did GDX:
So did silver:
http://schrts.co/LA7S1T
(Today’s action will appear on the chart this evening.)
G&S…To the moon I tell ya-To the moon…………..Oh shit wrong site, thought it was KWN.
I haven’t slipped up yet and closed a post with the ticker symbol like we do over in Investor Hub. lol
JNUG
Clam down Tony………do not let the secret out, yet.
Calm….I was thinking of sea food for lunch
Irish may need to “clam down” before his rocket-ship ride to the moon 🙂
Silver Going On 3rd Consecutive Annual Shortfall, Should Be Price Supportive – Thomson Reuters GFMS
Wednesday November 18, 2015
From what I read about silver inventory, unlike gold, the above ground inventory has been building, there have been only 3-4 years since 1960s when the investors actually bought more than they sold. It is to say that huge above ground silver inventory from coinage use has been disappearing into solar cells, electronics, medical devices, hygiene products, etc. The last symptom just showed up in the last year is that the junk silver bags which always had discount are now at a significant premium. So the drain of silver from retail investors is near its end. Who will reach to junk silver if there are bullions easily available. It is known fact that the official stock pile have been depleted in the last decade. The price is purely controlled by paper shorts and other derivatives. We should see what happens when above ground silver is sold out and miners are closed, whether paper silver can do the metal’s job.
I agree that the price is determined in the paper markets, and that above ground stockpiles are starting to get depleted. Normally I don’t care that much about supply demand metrics with Gold, but with Silver, it actually gets consumed due to the industrial component you mentioned. I thought the article was interesting because based on their research that for 3 years Silver production has been at a deficit, that this may impact pricing in the mid to longer term for 2016 and 2017.
Another thing to consider is that much of the Silver mined is a by-product of base metal and gold mining. With commodities in the poorhouse, many larger companies have scaled back some production, or there are projects shelved or or care and maintenance waiting for higher prices. This will further restrict the Silver production, and may keep a floor under Silver near $12-$14, because there are industrial buyers that don’t care what the coin or scrap supply is when they need to make a big purchase. When they see Silver price move up a buck or two, they may come into the market to make a larger purchase before it goes up more, and this kind of pattern would further restrict supply, and will eventually get a nice short squeeze going. That will probably take until 2016 to start playing out though.
Looks like the double short etfs gll & zsl have topped out with a spinning top and falling start candlesticks.
“You should know I am the U.S. dollar and I am at war with gold, silver and all those ninnies in the East. I will not quit, nor will I be deterred by the trillions of dollars of debt….not even ZIRP or NIRP….you see, I am the U.S. dollar, and I will destroy the
likes of gold and silver. I must….I have to or I won’t survive and will be less than
nothing in the world. Won’t you help me, even if you have to lie a little like I have to do everyday.”
‘simply said’
wyn
GDX at resistance:
http://schrts.co/Anjvp9
(The green lines connect weekly closing lows.)
JNUG is bouncing off the ceiling.
“I am the U.S. dollar………stand with me, and we will defeat all those dummies buying gold and silver…….we will beat the west………forget the debt, who cares!
We will simply grow more debt and the American and world dummies will go along with me, the U.S. dollar.”
‘simply said’
wyn
I have n0 idea of course but right now it looks to have topped at about 1095.
Slv daily candle not looking very hot. Plus, this move was just enough to get the 5 day rsi up from rock bottom. The candle body right now is black, which is a sign of weakness.
Another concern was last weeks COT which still had an incredible high short position. Not saying we can’t move higher for a couple of days more, but I think the odds still favor a major plunge. I do still have a position in AUY and will see if it can hold onto what looks like right now to be the right shoulder of an inc. H&S pattern.
Inverse h&s, that is
Slv need to get in gear. It is acting incredibly weak.
I looks like SLV is about ready to turn up Spanky, so hang in there. The slow stochastics are just turning up, as is the RSI. The MACD, which is a lagging indicator, is just about to cross by the way it appears. SLV will likely start to head up, at least for small run.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51484460771
Want to see slv close 13.61 or higher. I don’t like black candles generally, and particularly at important pivots. Look at the Oct. 1 candle in slv. Yes, it went higher, but that candle at the pivot strongly suggested the rally would come all the way back, and it did.
Gary, is there a bullish sentiment reading for silver? Or do they only have it for gold?
75% recovery in 8 days is wildly optimistic, even if you are very bullish. The 50dma is likely where gdx is going to coalesce going into the next employment report, if we are lucky. That will actually set up a nice base for a much more aggresive move. It is important to have a 20dma that is poised to rise quickly if price takes off. That means you have to chop around for a couple of weeks prior to let the 20dma come into line with price.
GDX got through fork resistance today:
http://schrts.co/Cf2HjG
(Black fork is based on closing prices.)
What is the blue fork then – real time prices at the time of the chart?
The blue fork is based on absolute highs and lows – “intra” day/hour/minute. The black fork is based on daily closing prices and would look different if based on 60 minute closes or weekly closes.
For example, we still do not have a breakout when the fork is based on weekly closes (black) rather than daily closes or absolute highs and lows:
Got it. I learn something new every day. Thanks.
yep I see that now where the blue is at the daily highs, and the black is graphed on the closing price. Neat.
Spanky- where is the 75% on gdxj….?? So everyone is on same pg…Gary can you include the indexes…Thank you
Not sure exactly what Gary said, but 75% of the rally from the lowest print to the highest print would be about $15.60 on gdx, well above the 50dma. Maybe it could tag that on the employment report, but I still think that is a stretch. I think we are more likely to chop around the 50dma until the FOMC.
I credit Gary and Rick for helping me pile into AEM at just the right time. The miners are hot and hitting lower lows and higher highs. Yes!
COMEX levered……….what is the count……anyone know.?
Slv looks like it closed with a perfect doji, so to me it is neutral for the longer term (any subsequent rally is not doomed per se). The next hurdle for me to get more bullish on a sustained move would be for gld to close above its weekly open at $103.98 tomorrow. If it doesn’t, I think we will still get a rally for a few days, but I think it will definitely make new lows in the weeks ahead. Also there is a gap now on the $Hui daily chart as of today.
I went to cash today selling my big oil positions while they were still positive today as they have had a strong bounce. The smaller companies are falling hard as oil is on the verge of falling below 40 and just could not breakout to positive. Volatility appears to be going up again.
Paul, I know you trade some of the oil ETFs like XLE, XOP, OIH, etc… and some of the larger companies. Do you ever trade any mid-size to smaller oil companies or related oil companies?
I hold a big position in BP that I don’t trade much but should as it keeps losing the gains.
Gary, all I got to say about miners is BLAST OFF! Woohoo! JNUG up about $6 since yesterday’s launch. My shares are up $3. I have a stop in that won’t let me lose any money this time. My RUSL shares are up about $2.50. Tight stop there with no chance of a loss either.