Friday with the Doctor
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Doc agrees that until, at least, the end of the year the U.S. equities market is the place to be.
Doc, Maybe Al and his wife(for lack of a better term)are doing very well in the market this year, but I am losing my ass as I am mostly in oil, gold, and silver stocks. But every dog has his day. Even Indiana almost beat Michigan last week before losing in overtime, a moral victory for the Hoosiers.
Hi Bonzo,
You misunderstood. I said that in the conventional market my wife (the correct term) are doing fine. In the resource sector, which is clearly my passion we are getting very beat up. But, we got very beat up before and when the market came back (2010) we did very well with our previously positions!
Just my opinion of course but I don’t see a rate increase affecting the conventional in the least, gold on the other hand could get decimated.
Gotta disagree with Doc a little bit, I think a rate increase strengthens the U.S. dollar, helping to put gold thru a crusher of course.
On the other hand, I agree about 100% with Docs timeframe of 2016, well, maybe 99%, those 2016 summer doldrums are gonna be lookin like very tasty buys.
Thx guys.
Regarding your comments about a rate increase affecting the conventional and gold, I happen to agree with you.
Al, conventional stocks have been rising for years. It is quite fluffy. The gold has been pounded for years and it is compressed. So a rate hike is supposed to bring down some thing which has been compressed hard and leave the fluffy stuff alone. I don’t understand your logic.
Remember today I said “probably till year end.
Hmm… We don’t have much time left this year, especially after the rate increase if there is one. Thanks.
BB; your day will come—patience is virtue but unfortunately it has and will be particularly more virtuous then I care for.
Thanks, Doc. At least I have no margin debt and can wait till gold and silver soar again. And if they get killed I’ll buy more.
“bb” is different from me(Bonzo)
The BB I made reference to was for Bonzo and BB, you could be right about the dollar—that’s one of the charts particularly foggy right now—It’s why I wasn’t as adamant about it as I was with the PMs, resources, the conventional markets, and oil.
Doc, not knowin things for sure is what keeps life interesting.
Thx for all your efforts, sure appreciate them.
Yes that is what can make life interesting, but it is also can make for a bit of stress. (In my case a lot of stress!)
If you have stress from an investment, you’ve gone beyond your limit.
Just adjust.
When we gamble, we have to accept before we even make the bet, the cash is gone, once you have made the bet, the cash is no longer yours.
Kinda like making a bank deposit. lol
Amen bb
Very little interet these dyas in resource stocks.
Anyone see the largest diamond ever was just found? or was it second largest? I forget, but 1100 hundred carrots would keep a second world war fighter pilot seeing in the dark.
Sure, the diamond find causes a bit of a jump in price, then it comes back down and levels off, so, 1100 carrots causes a few % move, then, 2 more diamonds get found, about 800 c each, and nothing, no interest.
The co has about 120 mil in the bank pays dividends and everything is comin up diamonds and nothing. lol
There is just zippo interest, far cry from years ago when DeBeers would buy a property and the owner shares would go from 25 cents to over $50 in a couple months. lol
BB,
Agreed. If anyone is interested, the company BB mentioned is Lucara Diamond Corp. (LUC.TO) and is part of Lukas Lundin family of companies. I have been watching and waiting on this stock to bottom for several months. Hopefully, if I buy some LUC(K), it will be VERY GOOD to me in the future.
All The Best,
JIM
Jim, I just looked at the charts of LUC—those are some interesting charts to say the least—I like them for a various number of reasons. I won’t purchase now based on its recent run (which could run a little more) but will wait for a pullback. You and BB should keep mentioning this company as we go forward and I’ll keep watching it since the charts are very interesting.
Beautiful chart. Wish I’d been watching a few months ago!
Had you been interested in diamonds you might have, or ya coulda lost everything on a kwn Lasonde promo. lol
BB,
Now your talking about Olivut Resources LTD (http://olivut.ca/en/Welcome_1), which I have been a shareholder in for over 5-years. You are correct, OLV.V has tanked alone with everything else the last 4.5-years.
Some of the factors that originally attracted me to the stock still hold true:
1-Pierre Lassonde (from Franco Nevada & Newmont Mining) owns 16% of outstanding stock
2-Share structure was and remains very tight (42-million F/D)
3-CEO Leni Keough’s money management / financing skills (http://olivut.ca/en/Press-Releases_94/March-12-2013–Olivut-Resources-Ltd-Announces-Innovative-Funding-Commitment-For-Up-To-18-Million_28)
All The Best,
JIM
PS: Another diamond company that I follow is North Arrow Minerals Inc. (NAR.V, http://www.northarrowminerals.com/). They had a nice run earlier this year, but have pulled back in recent months. The Lundin Trust owns 18.3% of the 59.5 million shares outstanding and management owns another 16.5%.
BB,
Now your talking about Olivut Resources LTD (http://olivut.ca/en/Welcome_1), which I have been a shareholder in for over 5-years. You are correct, OLV.V has tanked alone with everything else the last 4.5-years.
Some of the factors that originally attracted me to the stock still hold true:
1-Pierre Lassonde (from Franco Nevada & Newmont Mining) owns 16% of outstanding stock
2-Share structure was and remains very tight (42-million F/D)
3-CEO Leni Keough’s money management / financing skills (http://olivut.ca/en/Press-Releases_94/March-12-2013–Olivut-Resources-Ltd-Announces-Innovative-Funding-Commitment-For-Up-To-18-Million_28)
All The Best,
JIM
PS: Another diamond company that I follow is North Arrow Minerals Inc. (NAR.V, http://www.northarrowminerals.com/). They had a nice run earlier this year, but have pulled back in recent months. The Lundin Trust owns 18.3% of the 59.5 million shares outstanding and management owns another 16.5%.
jim
Should olivit do well, lets say find an 800 c diamond, what ya think the share price goes to?
Sorta funny luc hits so big and the share price stays under $3.
Im not to sure the risk in diamond companies are worth the risk anymore.
The payoff even if they do hit is just not there.
20-25 years ago, a 10 cent share could go to $10-$12 if someone close to there property hit sumthin, if they actually hit, 25 cents to $50, that’s what Lasond was talkin about on kwn, but I think Luc shows those days are gone.
Thanks for the diamond mining discussion guys. I don’t follow it closely, but Rick Rule was just on BNN recently mentioning he liked the management team at Lucara Diamond Corp, and thought the would do well in the future. This was before the large diamond find was just announced. It will be an interesting company to keep an eye on.
Glad you brought up OLV.V, bb. I didn’t mention it because all I have is charts and my guessing, no solid homework on the current state of the company.
I well remember KWN’s coverage of this stock. If you look at it’s stair step up back in the 2010 time frame, those steps up corresponded pretty closely to KWN interviews with Lassonde. As I recall, Lassonde said that if they found a pipe with gem-quality diamonds, the stock would go to $60. I think that was when it was in the 0.15 – 0.30 range, so up to a 400x appreciation. He could be wrong, but Lassonde has certainly made a lot of investors rich, so I give some weight to his words.
So yeah, one could have lost their shirt if they bought in 2011. Still, I would guess that if Lassonde remains associated with the company that it’s well-run, and when commodities enter a new bull it could go back to its old highs, even without a major strike. That’s about 20x right now, with a lottery ticket for 100s of times appreciation.
I may well buy a bit when the weekly/monthly charts look good.
And, to be fair to KWN, if one had paid attention when they first started promoting it, one could have made 15x their money in the 2009-2011 time frame.
I’ve mostly stopped following KWN, though, because in spite of great guests, King’s tabloid-style headlines and leading questions are just too much for me.
Second largest, bb.
Doc: A few weeks ago, you said natural gas could drop to $1. Is that based on technicals or fundamentals or both?
PF—both.
PF; right now the charts that I watch for natural gas says we should continue lower until at least into February of 2016.
PF, let me amend that to early January—-we should fall until then and then see what the charts are saying.
I think the long awaited currency crisis is set to transpire, where The Fed will be closing off avenues for central banks around the world to devalue their currencies against the US dollar at the expense of the US. economy. For example, buying assets out of the market by central banks is not set on improving economic circumstances unless you are attempting to devalue.
There’s no law about what’s right and wrong, but my guess is this long standing trend of taking advantage is probably over.
Much respect for your opinions FranSix, but you’re often a bit over my head.
Cab you explain a bit more of what you mean? What do you think this means for emerging economies? My read of the monthly chart for EEM is that it has shifted into a bear market.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rkp2hgcnj8ws8ih/EEM_monthly_20151119.jpg?dl=0
What I see is a 50 month simple moving average that has leveled and turned slightly down, with a decisive breakdown of price below that moving average.
And this after a huge run-up since the end of the 1990s
Correction, I should say it looks likely to be moving into a bear market. Will need to wait a while still for the picture to get clearer.
Good chart on the Emerging Markets GH. thanks.
DOC,
Far be it from me to give medical advice to a most intelligent M.D., but….
As a person who has travelled extensively in Mexico, Brazil, and many Arab countries may I suggest a prophylactic for Montezuma’s revenge.
The concept is simple: flood the gut with good bacteria both before a trip and before each meal.
E.G. A probiotic containing acidophilus, tha noses casei and possibly Longmont, lactococcus lacti and pediococcusacidilactd acidilactici.
Take a couple of capsules daily containing about 5 billion micro organisms before the trip and then one before each meal during the trip.
The cost of $10-15 is well worth it for the prevention of sickness, and I have not had food problems despite eating salads, etc. in Mexico.
CFS; thanks for the advice. I’ve had people that swear by that regimen. I may try that since my gut appears to a very tender viscera based on my medical history. It’s my main achilles heel.
A good place to buy probiotics is a favorite stock of Chris Temple: Vitacost.
I use either their 8-5 or there 10-10 brand.
Probiotic 8-5 contains 8 strains of bacteria and 5 billion per dose. 10-10 is 10 strains and 10 billion per dose…..Vitacost brand.
Doc, better than probiotic pills(most of which are worthless), eat a lot of sauerkraut which is loaded with good bacteria. Also you might put a few drops of Lugol’s iodine in some water and drink it. Iodine will kill the bad bacteria. What saved me in Florence was capsules of powdered charcoal.
Thanks Bonzo
These markets are tough like surgery. But I don’t use no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for girly gas when they blowed his head off?
Thanks for joining us, Cotton!
You are very welcome, but did Doc read my advice? Hope he tried the activated charcoal and the Lugol’s iodine. Let me know if it helped.
Good advice CFS and Bonzo Barzini. I am a big fan of probiotics right before meals whether traveling or just as a daily practice. Also activated charcoal is great for gas, bloating, absorbing impurities, and even mild food poisoning. Iodine is good for treating water (just don’t over do it with iodine). I use Nascent Iodine and also recommend Zeolite, and they also scrubs for radiation in the body.
HOLIDAY TIME…….every have a happy one………………….
EVERYONE……..DO NOT FORGET OWL’S BIRTHDAY…………….DEC.1…
Many thanks Indy!
Now how’d you know that?
Because my birthday is the same as OWL
He is older, but I am smarter…………..lol
But are you wiser?
No kidding?
E mail me your telephone number and I will give you a call, for sure.
Happy (early) Birthday Big Al & Jerry!
Thank you EX…..appreciate……………..J.
Coming from me, many thanks!
These Apple guys are stupid and me more so for buying an IPad!
tha noses
Above was typed in as rhamnosus which is a good bacterium for the gut!
Anyone have any idea why the Federal Reserve is holding a meeting on Monday?
None whatsoever. I would guess the subject could very well be a rate increase or simply dropping the subject for awhile. I would guess the former.
Maybe they are talking about closing the markets for a week or two for adjusting with the new curency, the question is will they have a bank holiday at the same time or not.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7287/rats-and-sinking-ship
As we all know.
The IMF seems to be calling for a worldwide coordinated QE in order to increase international inflation and reduce governmental costs relative to income and taxation.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1522.pdf
On the other hand the U.S. Government is trying to stop American companies from off-shoring to reduce taxation.
(Stupid politicians would never realize the REAL problem is that the U.S. has the highest corporate taxation in the world, and what it SHOULD be doing is reduce taxation and spending.)
Craig will be discussing this on our Weekend Show.
Also Professor,thanks for the input on Monday’s Fed meeting.
By the way, Cory and Shannon are in Sonoma this weekend if you happen to be around.
I wish I wasin Sonoma, but am currently in Indiana, making sure my house-heating is working. I return to England for Christmas, then on to southern Spain, before returning to California late January.
I should next be in California February thru March.
We may be there at the end of January
http://www.silverdoctors.com/us-economy-is-collapsing-americans-are-out-of-money/
This does not look good!
I was completely unaware of that Professor.
BY THE WAY WHEN YOU COME ACCROSS SOMETHING THAT YOU THINK WE SHOULD POST WE WILL DO THAT UNDER THE CAPTION “Insights from CFS” or any other caption that you choose.
Interesting…
Doc can give us all the bad news he wants. All I know is I have 16% profits locked in on Russia (RUSL). Trading these 3xers will make a man trader out of ya. Definitely makes “them” bigger and puts hair on your chest. lol
The catch 22 that the U.S. is about to be in:
Fed must increase interest rates to sustain any crumb of credibility.
Raising interest rates will reduce consumer spending, which is the bedrock of the U.S. economy.
Raising interest rates may also raise the value of the U.S. dollar, which is already so high that it is depressing exports.
Raising interest rates may also crash bond prices and increase interest paid by US central Goverment AND local government…….already in deficit.
You really think that a minuscule 25 basis points increase would have that type of effect. I really don’t.
Hey Al, let’s just jack the rate up to 4% and grab the popcorn bowl.
To go with the red wine!
I’ve often wondered what would happen if they just threw the lever and moved the rates up that high in one motion Jason. It would probably be a complete reset, and maybe that’s what the world needs. It would definitely be a spectacle.
You. Bet Rexcelsior it would be a real spectacle!
I believe the bond market is waiting for a catalyst to precipitate a major collapse.
I do not KNOW what that catalyst will be, but just maybe a 0.25 % rise could be the shot that brings down a black swan.
The house of cards is waiting for a breeze my friend.
How about a gale, Jason
Really Professor 25 basis points?
******** BALTIC DRY INDEX NUMBERS ARE ABOUT TO CLOSE! ***********
AND IF we get a number in the 400’s it will be a first, and if that happens we are DOOMED! This Christmas retail numbers will spell the start of the DEPRESSION !!!!
MAKE THAT…………………………THE GREATEST DEPRESSION !!!!!!!!!!!!!
I $BDI closed at 504
********* BALTIC DRY INDEX CLOSED FOR FRIDAY NOV 20, 2015 AT 498 POINTS! **********
WE ARE…………………….DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!
Mark, I love you man, but I have to disagree.
Fed To Hold An “Expedited, Closed” Meeting On Monday
Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures
It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 AM on Monday, November 23, 2015, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board’s Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board’s offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.
Meeting Date: Monday, November 23, 2015
Matter(s) Considered
1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
A final announcement of matters considered under expedited procedures will be available in the Board’s Freedom of Information and Public Affairs Offices and on the Board’s Web site following the closed meeting.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20151123advexp.htm
thanks……..
Not a big deal…
The Fed’s “Expedited, Closed” Meeting Is Pure Kabuki Theatre
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-feds-expedited-closed-meeting-is-pure-kabuki-theatre/
Maybe but Doc and I think it will result in a 25 basis point increase in rates.
Thank you Markedtofuture
************ IT’S OFFICAL, WE ARE IN A WORLD WIDE GREATEST OF ALL DEPRESSIONS! ************
BALTIC DRY INDEX AT 498 PTS! Can’t wait til see what happens at Monday’s close!
It has been rumored for some time that the NYSE wants to eliminate Stop Loss and GTC orders because they think such orders had a lot to do with the ‘flash crash’ of August 24, 2015. This could be up there with the wrong-footed elimination of the uptick rule in terms of a blunder. “Stop Loss” and GTC orders after the NYSE’s drop-dead date of February 26, 2016appear to be scheduled to end.
Doc,
It’s good to know you have gone past the yuck stage of the revenge. I experienced it twice, and it ain’t no fun.. The funny thing is, even when you’re careful it will reach out and get ya..
question: I’m with you on gold and oil falling. That said, the other commodities look to have bottomed. An example would be COPX. It just did a reverse split and the share prices are three times higher now. That tells me copper and the industrial commodities have bottomed. It seems to be a new narrative shaking out right now.
Always enjoy your thoughts, thanks.
Chartster, thanks. I seem to get this crud everytime I go to an area that’s questionable and I watch everything I eat and drink but it doesn’t seem to matter like you so eloquently put.
Probiotics doc 😉
yeup.
Doc,
I hope you get to do some fishing on the west coast. It’s an amazing place to billfish.
I love to billfish………..
Hi Doc,
I see COT Gold go crazy last week. Do we already see the bottom (indimediate maube)?
http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Thanks
Hi, Hong—-the COT improved again for the PMs this week. A couple more weeks like this and we’re in good shape. It looks like a bottom in December as we’ve talked about.
Thanks Doc,
Can you share your view in Gold & Oil very shorterm ?
some good calls doc, always interested in your views
‘Barclays bets on stock boom as world money growth soars’
Commodities and emerging markets may have hit bottom. Fed rate rises mean leadership is switching “anti-bond” sectors
Off Topic:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/20/politics/air-force-gunship-lost/index.html
(How to waste $50 million)