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Doc and Big Al discuss potentialities for the U.S. economy and the potential impact on the equity markets.

Big Al
November 23, 2015

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Is the U.S. economy going to imitate that of Japan since the 80’s? Big Al and Doc think that it might and here is why.

 

Discussion
54 Comments
    CFS
    Nov 23, 2015 23:34 AM

    So why did the Fed meet today?
    It could not have been about nothing! This is not a good week to travel without reason!

      Nov 23, 2015 23:41 AM

      CFS, as of this moment, I have no idea.

        Nov 23, 2015 23:49 AM

        To discuss the discount rate.

      Nov 23, 2015 23:12 PM

      Yes, very suspicious. It would seem no one would have a meeting on a holiday week like this unless something big was going down.

        Nov 23, 2015 23:41 PM

        or they wanted you to think there was something big in the works…………..

          Nov 23, 2015 23:55 PM

          Could be but remember the banksters had their meetings to create the Fed right around the holidays.

            Nov 23, 2015 23:19 PM

            Maybe, they will disband……and all will be well for the holidays…………lol

            Nov 23, 2015 23:21 PM

            Care to place a wager?

            Nov 23, 2015 23:20 PM

            or maybe, they have decided to give up….since the congress is getting into their pocketbook……..like $30bill worth…..

    CFS
    Nov 23, 2015 23:40 AM

    Silver is doing relatively better than gold today, and I’m hearing rumor of thinning supplies again.

    Nov 23, 2015 23:50 AM

    Interesting blog post @BCA Research RE: Renminbi being included in SDR:

    http://blog.bcaresearch.com/assessing-the-impact-of-the-rmbs-sdr-ambition

    bb
    Nov 23, 2015 23:55 AM

    Is short term commentary valuable?
    imo, yes it is, I think its about time the discussion revolves around these cycles as opposed to “to the moon” “their lined up for blocks” “huge shortages””buy now or ya wont get any” etc crap, all of it.

    Maloney #6 I just watched, he explains housing prices quite well, that’s a cycle.
    We need to talk about how, why these things work.
    Differentiate between traders, holders, investors etc, the reasons advantages and disadvantages, maybe even mention p/e or yields once in awhile.

    Is short term commentary valuable? imo it is.

    Oh, and just to dispel all goldbug worries, Bo has said November and its “to the moon” so we got nuthin to worry about, or did he say that last month? I forget, Maybe its December now, in any case, its to the moon, so no worries.

      Nov 23, 2015 23:06 PM

      Thank you, bb. We will now stick with what we have been doing in the past.

      Best

    CFS
    Nov 23, 2015 23:56 AM

    Clinton on the Allergan-Pfizer merger:

    “For too long, powerful corporations have exploited loopholes that allow them to hide earnings abroad to lower their taxes. Now Pfizer is trying to reduce its tax bill even further. This proposed merger, and so-called ‘inversions’ by other companies, will leave U.S. taxpayers holding the bag. As President, I will fight to reform our tax system to reward growth, innovation, and job creation here in the United States. We cannot delay in cracking down on inversions that erode our tax base.

    “In the weeks ahead, I will propose specific steps to prevent these kind of transactions, which take advantage of loopholes that litter our tax code, distort incentives for investment, and disadvantage small businesses and domestic firms that cannot game the international tax system. I urge Congress to act immediately to make sure the biggest corporations pay their fair share, and regulators also should look hard at stronger actions they can take to stop companies from shifting earnings overseas. Republicans should stop trying to tilt the tax code even further in favor of the super wealthy and the largest corporations and join us in supporting these necessary reforms on behalf of U.S. taxpayers. We should come together to encourage op investment and job creation here in the United States, not this kind of damaging gamesmanship.”

    To which I can only reply:
    Lord preserve us from politicians that don’t pay their fair share of taxes, will never consider cutting spending and taxes, because before long the Irish will be able to say again;
    ” them Yankee companies are over sexed and over here, but I don’ t mind.”

      Nov 23, 2015 23:05 PM

      I am a bit confused. So are you for her idea or against?

        Nov 23, 2015 23:26 PM

        I think CFS is against Miss Piggy.

        CFS
        Nov 23, 2015 23:52 PM

        I think it is asking for trouble to have the highest corporate tax rate and the world, and if politicians believe they can stop companies from inversion by passing laws, they are really stupid. It’ like passing a law against terrorism and expecting it to stop.

        CFS
        Nov 23, 2015 23:16 PM

        Actually I was trying a bit of humor.
        During the wartime, the general comment was: those yanks are over-sexed and over here and I don’t like it.
        Since the merger involves Viagra, I thought my comment topical and humorous…. I guess not.

          Nov 23, 2015 23:23 PM

          Oh, I get it. PhD.s are too smart for me!

        JIM
        Nov 23, 2015 23:43 PM

        AL,

        Here is an example of some of Hillary’s supporters. What a sad day in America.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4Ed042HOBo

        All The Best,

        JIM

    Nov 23, 2015 23:04 PM

    Howdy Big Al

    Just wondering if there is a chance of having Avi Gilburt on the show this week? Sure would like to get his opinion.

    Thanks

    Nov 23, 2015 23:05 PM

    Hi Doc, if I’ve understood you correctly, you’re looking for the metals to bottom out in fall 2016? Personally, I’m taking a slightly different tack. I think the metals will bottom when equities top. So the question becomes when do the conventionals top out? I’m pencilling in March 2016, latest October 2016. Heck, they could even top out by Xmas.

      Nov 23, 2015 23:53 PM

      Karl, January will give a good picture for the conventionals. I’m also playing off the chinese charts since I feel the 2 wouldn’t diverge. The only problem is the chinese charts are trying to tell me they’ll dump sometime around when you think the conventionals will in March, while the conventionals are saying it could happen in January for them. Anyway, January will be very interesting to see when it comes into existence.

    Nov 23, 2015 23:17 PM

    Imagine if they try to keep the market up, and it don’t work. Perhaps because of debt or the dollar dropping. Keep in mind that GDP is where it’s at because obamacare is included and going up expedientially , even though its been ruled a tax. For me I sleep much better only owning metals.
    Also I believe the fed meeting was to get there ducks all lined up in a row as to why they won’t raise interest rates. They will blame it on terrorism. They’ll say their trying to help the rest of the world.

      Nov 23, 2015 23:33 PM

      Shortly, Mr Alan.

      Nov 23, 2015 23:35 PM

      I could argue that a stronger dollar would help the other countries by increasing their exports. More on this during the market close.

    Nov 23, 2015 23:31 PM

    You folks call them cycles. I call it the big money says there’s not enough up side here, so lets crash this sector and rotate into this one, the smaller money will always follow, therefore we always get the biggest gains and the lowest risks.

    Nov 23, 2015 23:32 PM

    Bobby posted a great article concerning the market……see Brother John F., charts included at no charge…………….free, and everyone likes a free lunch…….lol

      Nov 23, 2015 23:41 PM

      Fed all blow, no show……..cheap talk, like a cheap suit, holds no value……

        Nov 23, 2015 23:01 PM

        Frank,

        That depends on who your date is 🙂

    Nov 23, 2015 23:45 PM

    Saudie sentences poet to death………for renouncing islam………….zerohedge.

    Nov 23, 2015 23:12 PM

    I would like to thank Great Fearless Leader Comrade Colonel President Vladimir Putan for making me 16% profit on the Rooskie stock market today. Thanks Vlad!

      Nov 23, 2015 23:21 PM

      Doc, did you ever get over your Montezuma’s ? Did you try probiotics, Lugol’s iodine, activated charcoal, or colloidial silver, or anything else?

        Nov 23, 2015 23:52 PM

        Well, it’s been since 3 days ago that I’ve not had a problem so I must be doing better.

          Nov 23, 2015 23:15 PM

          That’s good news. Now watch out for the bandidos!

    Nov 23, 2015 23:00 PM

    ******** MORE BAD DATA AS EXISTING HOME SELLS DOWN 3.4% LAST MONTH *********
    CAN’T WAIT to see those closing numbers for the Baltic Dry Index today! This is going to be interesting! BY THE WAY BIG AL……..thanks for quoting me today!

      Nov 23, 2015 23:24 PM

      You provided some great food for thought!

        Nov 23, 2015 23:47 PM

        Thanks BIG AL, I just try to be honest…………..well, look at the BDI, it has actually rising back above 500 to 516! Let’s see how long this will last!

    Nov 23, 2015 23:41 PM

    Wow, Big Al, this is an honor being quoted on the KE Report! And almost headlined.

    This is the kind of spontaneous publicity that makes people! Things are going to start happening to me now. 🙂

    Now I know how Navin Johnson felt.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOTDn2A7hcY

      Nov 23, 2015 23:44 PM

      Yeah, maybe Yellen will have you shot.

      Stay away from them defective oil cans!

      Nov 23, 2015 23:46 PM

      Say yer prayers, half breed.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE

        Nov 23, 2015 23:48 PM

        You hate those cans! 🙂

          Nov 23, 2015 23:10 PM

          Ebolan, maybe you could get a nice white uniform and go to work for Al.

            Nov 23, 2015 23:20 PM

            You bet. Eddie how are you with bed pans?

        Nov 23, 2015 23:14 PM

        We saw Steve in person and he is a great musician. (Blue grass)

    Nov 23, 2015 23:15 PM

    America needs Trump, he will fire the bloated government bureaucracy and make it mean and lean. A businessman knows that to stop the deficits and turn the country around you need small government where people actually work to keep their jobs. You can’t keep printing money to pay for a fat bloated unresponsive government that keeps passing entitlement programs for the people so they can keep their jobs. DT

      Nov 23, 2015 23:40 PM

      I don’t know. The PTB in the RepubloCon party don’t want him as their candidate. I think they will make sure he doesn’t get the nomination. If by some miracle he would become President I think the people who run the deep state would sit him down and tell him if he plays that game he will be given the Kennedy treatment.

      Nov 23, 2015 23:56 PM

      DTracy… who r u kidding.. Trump will fire em & take their salaries for himself.