So much turmoil in the world… what does it mean for the markets
Numerous stories from Europe and the middle East showing only further issues and attacks are dominating the headlines today. How will these impact the US equity markets as well as gold?
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Agreed. Most of the miners I’m watching are up 3%, but some are up even more, and it shows some underlying strength coming from the marketplace, over the spot prices. It has seemed like the miners have been leading the metals to the up and downside lately.
I tend to agree with Gary’s comments right at the end of the interview. Since early this year I’ve been watching for the downside targets in Gold of $1065, $1044.70, and $993.20 as areas that seemed probable for bottom (maybe intermediate, but most likely the major bottom due to the length and severity of the 4+ year Bear in Gold).
Recently on Nov 17th (in overnight trading from Tue to Wed), Gold went down and hit $1065 right on the money, and then turned up. This indicated to me that Gold had just started it’s bounce, and that the $1065 level of support target, had held right as expected.
We discussed that over the next few days, that Gold finally made it up through the congestion zone of $1071-$1076 (previous support from July 24th, that had now turned to resistance). The move through this level seemed bullish. Gold got up to $1086, and then backed off down to $1067 and now back up to $1076-$1077. We are right at the upper side of that same $1071-$1076 congestion zone again today at $1076 presently. This range is where Gold has been stalling out in intra-day and overnight trading, but it seems to have stalled out in weird way in this no-man’s land.
If Gold can base & consolidate here and get up above $1087 then there may be a week or two of upside before going down to test $1065 again and if that level of support fails, then next support is $1044 level.
You must admit Excelsior that resiliency is the word of the day.
Well, I feel overall in the last few weeks that Gold, Silver, and the PGMs have actually been displaying weakness, and they did put in new recent lows in each case. However, the miners have been been much more resilient.
It is unknown whether the $1065 will be the intermediate low at this point, but it is more likely that the metals have a bit further to fall still. However, in the very short term, everything is just whipsawing in a range. I felt when Gold got up above $1076 that it was more of a bullish move, and it is due for a short-term bounce. However, the upside will likely be muted and moving into mid Dec and first quarter of 2016 is when I’d expect the intermediate cycle low to occur (especially if there is any more dollar strength, or rate hike jitters in the marketplace).
Overall though it is turning out to be a boring week, but that is to be expected since the holiday travel starts tomorrow, and Thursday the markets are closed……then there is the insane retail focus for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. I think until that data comes in that most investors are mentally checked out, until next week.
Is Gold on the verge of a Breakout?
November 24, 2015 – Tactical Investor
http://www.mining.com/web/is-gold-on-the-verge-of-a-breakout/
Is December rate hike off the table, if there was ever one planned? Anyone care to guess?
December is far from over Dragonite. A a matter of fact, last time I checked, it hasn’t stated quite yet!
Don’t make fun of me, Al. What do you think about my speculation?
Hi DRAG….For what its worth I don’t think there will be a rate hike (as I have already stated). The fact that the BOE stated they would not raise rates until the end of 2016- early 2017 was sending a signal to the Fed to put the pig back in the sty . As far as having one planned, I don’t think so. I think it was just a ploy to steady the markets……if that makes any sense to you.
BTW….The Big Fella has too much respect for you, therefore he would never take the piss out of you.
I know.
Gary sounded subdued today. I hope he is not depressed.
I don’t think that anyone is particularly depressed, Eddie. Simply not a lot to say.
Well, all I can say as a day trader is…..
This market is AWESOME!!
There have been a few good moves lately for sure, depending on what you’ve been trading. I picked up some Yamana (AUY) the end of last week, and it is up nicely today.
What have you been trading Mark Alan?
The news release posted below is likely why Yamana had a nice spike higher today. I just trimmed back a bit in this position while there is this strength and on this news release. This lowers my cost basis and moves some funds back over to dry powder.
______________________________________________________________________
Yamana Announces Planned Private Placement Of Brio Shares
Tuesday November 24, 2015 11:52
http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-11-24/Yamana-Announces-Planned-Private-Placement-Of-Brio-Shares.html
Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY) -NYSE
2.05 Up 0.21(11.24%) 2:08PM EST
I don’t trade shares of the miners. I day trade weekly options on the so-called “lunatic stocks” like AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, BIDU, TSLA, PCLN and SPY, and I day trade mostly SPY like today.
I’ll trade the GDX, GLD and SLV for swing trades using weekly options as well if I see a good set-up.
And despite what some seem to be screaming about, the markets are a great place right now for traders. If it was rigged then why would anyone want to trade it?
Great last sentence Mark Alan. Agreed that nobody would trade it, and one can argue that markets have been rigged since their creation as big money pushes around sectors, but so what. There is always opportunity in the markets on a daily basis.
So you do more options trading then in the more liquid high flying “lunatic stocks” or the larger ETFs. Interesting. I wish I was smart enough to trade options, but I just do swing trades on traditional stocks or ETFs, and don’t get into the options side.
Good luck man and may you have a prosperous week!
BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE GREEDY FOOLS !!!!!
I understand that traders are gaining capital……….but at what cost!
Sorry, but “greed” can be found in EVERY culture. You’re demonstrating flawed logic.
Let’ see if you will say that when this all collapses!!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s VERY apparent that you don’t understand the slightest thing when it comes to trading or investing. It’s called RISK MANAGEMENT. IF and when the “whole thing” collapses, (which I’m sure there will be pain) then one should ALREADY BE PREPARED in advance. Screaming and shouting to induce fear has never been productive, unless of course you are the type that gets thrills from watching, reading, and hearing about other peoples panic and fear.
I’m not one bit worried about if the whole thing collapses, because I’ve proven to myself and others, I know how to rebuild from ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
NO !!!!!!!!!!! THIS MARKET IS RIGGED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NO, THIS MARKET IS RIGGED!!!!!!!!!
People were calling for a retest of the lows for oil but there had already been a retest and I don’t think oil will come for another retest. The market is headed to well above 2100 after some hiccups. I had to buy back xop today higher but took some nice gains of almost a dollar and reloaded again a little lower and is up 4.2% now. The oil majors are still not moving a lot % wise.
I’M BACK! THE WHOLE GAME IS RIGGED!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here we are and the whole world is on edge after what happened to Russia this morning and the markets are up…………..PLEASE! THE WHOLE GAME IS RIGGED! AND RUSSIA IS RUNNING OUT OF PATIENCE!
Only one small fighter plane down.
ONE SMALL FIGHTER PLANE………….LOL…………..MAN, YOU HAVE NEVER BEEN TO WAR!
The Russians downed a full size Korean passenger plane as well as a Malaysian plane and that did not lead to anything. It looks like you have been to war.
Highly unlikely the Russians downed that Malaysian plane. The instant it happened the US & allies began with a propaganda campaign to put the blame on Russia. But the US and its allies never presented ANY evidence–what evidence might have existed, they withheld (e.g. black box data, satellite images). The implication is pretty clear–false flag. Cui bono?
YES……and that was an act of war, but at that time REAGAN was nothing but an actor acting like a tiger………and we still are with Obama! But the whole world knows that OBAMA is weak……….and yes I took a bullet for this country because of a bunch of lies while you were safe at home! This is why I’m such an advocate now about the truth! IT IS NOT FOR JUST YOUR BENIFIT, BUT IT IS FOR ALL OF MY FOLLOW TROOPS OUT THERE THAT ARE REAL MEN OUT THERE FIGHTING IN THEATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mark, how old are you..?
LADIES FIRST……………how old are you!
Comical, unreal manipulation to keep the US markets from selling off even a little. Break to new ATH with volume and I will admit Gary was right.
AUY is back to neutral on the weekly charts. I can’t see it heading to the moon before the FOMC. The daily chart is uncannily symmetrical, as are many of the other miners and even GDX. If the symmetry continues, we should continue to climb.
I have basically abandoned hope on the miners, and I am using my own disgust as a contrarian indicator to stay long, lol. I’ll hold and see what happens next.
“I am using my own disgust as a contrarian indicator to stay long, lol. ” — Spanky
That’s a funny statement man. I know you how you feel though….
Yes, I trimmed back my AUY today into this strength because I am also concerned about heading into mid-Dec. However, I’m keeping the door open for a short-term pop in the PMs if we can get back above this resistance area of $1071-$1076 and get a close in Gold above $1087. It would just be a short term bounce, but it may have a crack at testing $1133.40. However, going into Dec, I’m still looking to see if $1065 will get tested again, and if that fails then the $1044 is back on the menu.
Cheers!
While the miners look neutral now, gold itself doesn’t look o hot at all on the weekly chart. COT is very constructive though. SLV’s much less so.
Today’s action in GLD and SLV was less than bullish. I hate black candles, as they indicate selling into strength and invariably get followed up with lower lows. Certainly any rally starting tomorrow shouldn’t be trusted. We need to take out today’s close before I can trust gold and silver again. The sooner the better.
Good thoughts. I do think there was a fair bit of selling into the strength today in the metals, but really more of a consolidation day. I don’t expect much excitement tomorrow as many won’t even be paying attention because it is a huge travel day (right before a holiday). I’m more interested in Friday and Monday’s disposition after we get past the retail madness.
Have a good rest of the week!
I wanted to buy JNUG today but the chart was all screwed up. Sure it was rocket launching but no bull flag = no buy for me period. I did go bear on the Bear in RUSS. Missed getting stopped out several times by about a dime. Chart was looking up EOD so keep yo fingers crossed! I promised the wify her favorite place for dinner on Friday. If I get stopped out on Russia it’s Pho for her and no bootay for me!
For your sake then, I hope all goes well with your Russian position to keep the little lady happy. Yes, I was hesitant also to get too excited on today’s mini-rally in the miners and trimmed versus buying. Good luck ETF Ninja!
The whole commodities sector gapped up this morning and sold off during the day. See GCC. Again, less than ideal action. Basically this suggests this move has no legs, and if it does rally tomorrow, it’s coming back down at some point. If course there are always exceptions to the rule, but in a bear market you have to take this type of weak action seriously.
Miners still showing relative strength. I say Gary was right to have called the bottom in AU.