Friday with The Doctor and Gary
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On this shortened trading day, the price of gold continues to head down. Will this trend continue? That remains to be seen.
or perhaps they were using leftover turkey necks to do the dirty deed……..
What does that amount of gold look like?
https://www.quora.com/What-does-a-billion-U-S-dollars-worth-of-gold-look-like
Roughly 50-60 tonnes of gold is dumped monthly on the markets, where there’s really only ONE source, redemptions out of physical gold ETFs. All of it going to China.
Perhaps this chart tells the story (GLD holdings verse gold price):
http://traderdan.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/gld-holdings.jpg
Maybe a complete washout of GLD holdings to 2008 levels will signal the bottom in gold?
Interesting chart Brian. Thanks.
It’s a sign of net redemptions out of ETFs, meaning they’re being drained of their available gold for redemptions. And Inthink this is happening in every ETF, not just the GLD.
A massive spread has opened up between treasuries and gold prices but also the trend in Eurodollar prices:
Sentiment is pessimistic and adverse despite the fundamentals being obviously in favour of a gold rally for quite some time.
McGlone of ETF Securities has been bullish gold since the July low and he is a little embarrassed I think.
I thought you folks in the US also had Friday off as a holiday. Aren’t you all supposed to be fiighting one another at some mall?
HaHA……..Nice one BOB.
Bob
Interesting article related to this topic. Eventually, US retailers will learn that Black Friday has a NEGATIVE EFFECT on their profits. Some stores are closed today; they have learned that marketing and selling to LOYAL customers is the way to make profits. The bargain-seeker customer should be ignored.
“We surveyed about 10,000 U.S. consumers in the first two weeks of November. More than half said Black Friday is a bad idea and they have no plans to shop that day. They will stay out of stores.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/black-friday-shoppers-are-the-worst-customers-commentary.html
Bizarrely, UK retailers had a BF last year – sales were up for about 48 hours but then apparently sales from then up until the January sales started just fell off the cliff.
Glutons for punishment they are repeating the madness today.
Only a moron would go to a mall……to get mauled……….
Bob:
LOL. But no more dangerous than attending European so called football games……..
Are the coin dealers have Black Friday sales today with 10% off on silver eagles and gold buffaloes? Doc, will Michigan beat OSU? Bet on the Hoosiers to beat Purdue.
Bonzo, since I went to the maize and blue school, what kind of answer would you expect? GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!!
Doc, now that Michigan is favored I think I’d take OSU and the points if I knew a bookie, but I don’t. And I’d take I.U. over the Boilermakers too. Go I.U.!
it will continue head down. most accurate forecaster said it; not gold bug.
I still like Doc’s timeline. Looking to get in near the bottom in the next 6 months er so. Nickel may be a sleeper metal for the future as it is useable in LENR (Low Energy Nuclear Reactions) with Hydrogen.
I will miss the roar of the gas powered vehicles but electric is the way.
Great thoughts Dan on the value of alternate nuclear energy ideas. Some are mentioning the return of Thorium powered nuclear. Another cool idea is What IBC Advanced Alloys is doing with Beryllium coated-Uranium pellets. It would have a much lower temperature, and be much more stable than current methods.
Hope all is well. What Silver companies are you liking these days? Are you still following A-Z mining?
Yup. Still have it and Scorpio, FR, GPR, IPT and Claude and a few others on my radar. I haven’t had the time and especially the money to trade or invest this year. Still working on a small business in cowtown. That is why Doc’s timeline may work out perfectly for me. (;-)
That’s a good list of silver companies. Impact Silver was up nicely today.
Now I remember you mentioning the new business venture last time. Well that is one of the best investments = your own business, and it keeps one motivated to succeed when their hard work can affect the investment. Hope all is working out well, and that you’ll have a little funny money to throw at the miners if we get the lows soon, or in 2016.
Wishing you all the success you deserve Dan. Cheers!
Thanks Ex. Nickel is now on my watch list.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JJN&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48380141342
Do you follow Norilsk Nickel? (NILSY) They also have a large Palladium credit.
Here is their overview:
Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel (NILSY)
Business Summary
Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel, together with its subsidiaries, engages in prospecting, exploration, extraction, refining, and metallurgical processing of minerals; and production, marketing, and sale of base and precious metals. It operates in GMK Group, Group KGMK, Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta, Other metallurgical, and Other non-metallurgical segments.
The company produces nickel, palladium, platinum, and copper, as well as various by-products, such as cobalt, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium, and sulfur. It is also involved in the rental of equipment, gas extraction, electricity production and distribution, construction, repairs, geological works, spare parts production, distribution, science, fuel supply, river shipping operations, sea port, and airport businesses, as well as acts as an air company. The company was formerly known as Open Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel and changed its name to Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel in May 2015. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Dudinka, the Russian Federation.
I do like that LENR doesn’t have the radioactive concerns, and the method using Nickel or Palladium would be bullish for both those metals for the longer term.
Sales of gold contracts came during London hours. Silver declined less, which is unusual. Japanese rates in the negative. This is after years of attempting to stoke inflation:
how come doc is always correct in his technicals…. and gary is wrong in cycles…?
doc..gold down move..and a bounce up after fomc..OR…significant downward no bounce…that isn’t making sense to me…can you please explain a little?
thanks
Agatha….I gave up trying to make sense of what the markets do , a long time ago.
Gold has not been making sense for over 2 years. Gold moves against all fundamental factors, high physical demand, lower production, war, etc. More bullish it gets, more gold is whacked. It is a power play.
The market has been making once in million year events so regularly, you know market force is no longer function.
Same with oil. There are wars in oil producing region middle east. Oil price goes down. Common sense is over powered.
translation
stay out of gold until it touches 860
Agatha; here’s the deal. Gary’s intermediate cylce should start to wind down. We should continue to see pressure on the metals going into Fedspeak in the middle of December. The question then becomes: “do we have a situation of sell the rumor and buy the fact” or does Gary’s intermediate cycle last longer after reaction to a potential rate hike by the Fed. The possibility for the latter is the fact that some of the PM stock technicals are saying it will. So you have a contradictory force right now. That could mean we just keep moving lower into 2016 without much of a bump versus a moderate bump and then move lower. That’s why I said what I said. Either way, this is not the low. The key is going to be the reaction after Fedspeak. Hope this helps you understand why I’m equivocating right now.
The US$ just went through 1.00 and will probably overshoot to the upside as most chart patterns do IMHO. Hey Doc, hope you have a pill to keep from equivocating. (;-)
A moderate bump does not sound like taking the risk for?
I keep looking at the Rio Tintos, BHPs, TCKs, etc, and they have been crushed so much this year it is difficult to imagine that they could lose another 50% from here… but that seems to be the real worry on many people’s minds.
I wonder, just like oil bounced in late summer, whether the banks will soon decide to move into the copper, iron and coal miners for an oil-like pump and dump.
I’m concerned the commodities still could fall a bit lower for longer, but you raise an interesting question Bob UK. At what point will the institutional investors and hedge funds decide the commodity stocks are low enough, and jump in?
My gut says soon. Tax loss selling comes and goes. Then they buy in early Dec?
Or maybe I just need some probiotics.
thanks doc..I appreciate… I didn’t think you were equivocal…I just didn’t get it..
The gold bear……..is long in the tooth………but, a toothless bear, still has claws……
RICK the Ruler……….says….gold going lower……………
Rule did say…..platinum looked like a consideration…..
granite is better trade since countertops are all the rage
Granite……..is way overpriced……..
Women…….make all kinds of dumb investments………….lol
He also like Uranium and Water plays.
Frank, I wouldn’t touch platinum here—it’s going lower.
exactly……….
When I posted …RICK THE RULER…..said Platinum looked interesting, vs gold……I told EXelsior, that if platinum went in the $700’s I would be a buyer, but only graded coin wise…and at no premium over spot.
Yes. Sounds like a good plan for the long haul.
….that is once we get a little further pullback into the $700’s….
Just listened to him. He said gold may go lower but eventually it will be an unprecedented move up. Obviously, this is his best time as vulture capitalist. A few years ago he said he saw everything very expensive and now he is buying with both hands. As he said, there are a lot of smart money (include him) around now but there no longer dumb money. One frustration is he like Peter Schiff and Jim Puplava, Rick down-play manipulation.
1 year ago today I mentioned here that USD would break 1.20 by 2016. The gold bugs went lulu.
Listening to the message today reminds me that you can have 1 trillion charts but if you don;t watch capital flows you are hooped.
Charts mean nothing. Capital flows were extreme and will get more so. The USD will go to 1.6 now int eh next 5 years.
Gold is irrelevant in the conversion now. The elites have won. Gold is the tired old relic. Until everyone here is fully on the USD bandwagon and have sold all your physical – gold will just keep dropping.
Just go to Starbucks do they drop gold bars or swipe their phone. That speaks volumes as to what they perceive as cash.
It ain’t gold my friends
Mind to tell us which gold bug went lulu?
Starbuck over priced, what a way to waste a buck……or six bucks………lol
Most people driving up to starbucks , have less than $10K saved………..would be my estimate……lol
K-K-K-K Ken is coming to kill me!
funny………good one..
Frank,
That is the place to be. That is the new trend. If something can be popular on social media, it will flourish. Today’s peoples are very passive and can be persuaded very easily. I put a pot of excellent bean coffee every am and it costs me much much less than $1.00/cup let alone $6.00.
fleece the sheep……….a grouping of mindless have to work the rest of their lives because they forgot to save their bucks…………lol
correction by the end of 2016
I’m sitting here at work watching Black Friday fist fight videos. Gotta love the Internet. Been a slow day. I should have teleworked. DC is a ghost town.
should be like that all the time……….if the politicians were home more in their districts something productive might get done…for the people, instead of to the people………………..jmho
Why is everyone so negative? The gold stocks are hardly moving today when months agao they would have sold off a lot. Is it really gold going down or the USD going up? I think it is more the later. If the USD keeps going up, it will cause havoc with emerging markets which will backfire on the US.
The FED are dumb but they aren’t stupid. They will keep the reigns on the US dollar and gold will be fine. There is no way the USD is going to the moon like everybody says lately. If it does and hits 120 or 130 on the index, it means a worldwide depression and deflation. If that happens, you will want to own some gold anyway. I think they will print more money before that ever happens.
Everybody needs to relax and just stay with a long term view.
Nicely said Paul W. Notice when the dollar was much lower, everybody continuously talked about all of the negative situations that would drive the dollar even lower. Gold right now is dependent on the crack of the dollar and the stock market. Both are supported, so of course gold will go down at the moment. And yes, a much stronger dollar will essentially drive the world into a depression, and that is an “end of world” scenario. I typically do not speculate on these types of situations. The last two weeks the miners looked good and the metal bad. Look at today’s action 😉
Frank, gold/plat 1.25.
Richard………..I noticed that ….keeping a close eye on the platinum
remember today is expiation day for dec 15th. always like this at these times—lots of selling!!!
good point Tim.
Looking at buying my RUSL position back next week. Putan took my profits back in RUSS. I only have a net gain of $10 between the two. Gonna double down on RUSL when the chart looks right.
Trump, The Donald was interviewed on 20/20 last night by Barbara Walters. If you look at his surroundings he knows the value of gold because even his personal elevator is gold plated as well as his plumbing fixtures including those on his personal jet. What is there not to like about a family man who can’t be bought by the special interest groups, makes common sense and understands gold. America at this point in their history is lucky to have such a candidate. DT
the big move down in gold caused from a rate hike?
Which rate hike? From 2003 to 2007 rate hiked from 1% to 5.5%, how much did gold drop?
The Whack-A-Moles had a good go at the PMs overnight, Then someone else kept the game going during the day…….Oh look at that the $ is up , O what a surprise.