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Friday with The Doctor and Gary

Big Al
November 27, 2015

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On this shortened trading day, the price of gold continues to head down. Will this trend continue? That remains to be seen.

Discussion
73 Comments
    Nov 27, 2015 27:35 AM

    The Whack-A-Moles had a good go at the PMs overnight, Then someone else kept the game going during the day…….Oh look at that the $ is up , O what a surprise.

    Nov 27, 2015 27:37 AM

    I thought you folks in the US also had Friday off as a holiday. Aren’t you all supposed to be fiighting one another at some mall?

      Nov 27, 2015 27:38 AM

      HaHA……..Nice one BOB.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:47 AM

      Bob

      Interesting article related to this topic. Eventually, US retailers will learn that Black Friday has a NEGATIVE EFFECT on their profits. Some stores are closed today; they have learned that marketing and selling to LOYAL customers is the way to make profits. The bargain-seeker customer should be ignored.

      “We surveyed about 10,000 U.S. consumers in the first two weeks of November. More than half said Black Friday is a bad idea and they have no plans to shop that day. They will stay out of stores.”

      http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/black-friday-shoppers-are-the-worst-customers-commentary.html

        Nov 27, 2015 27:58 AM

        Bizarrely, UK retailers had a BF last year – sales were up for about 48 hours but then apparently sales from then up until the January sales started just fell off the cliff.

        Glutons for punishment they are repeating the madness today.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:14 AM

      Only a moron would go to a mall……to get mauled……….

      Nov 27, 2015 27:36 AM

      Bob:

      LOL. But no more dangerous than attending European so called football games……..

    Nov 27, 2015 27:40 AM

    Are the coin dealers have Black Friday sales today with 10% off on silver eagles and gold buffaloes? Doc, will Michigan beat OSU? Bet on the Hoosiers to beat Purdue.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:42 AM

      Bonzo, since I went to the maize and blue school, what kind of answer would you expect? GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!!

        Nov 27, 2015 27:22 AM

        Doc, now that Michigan is favored I think I’d take OSU and the points if I knew a bookie, but I don’t. And I’d take I.U. over the Boilermakers too. Go I.U.!

    Nov 27, 2015 27:46 AM

    it will continue head down. most accurate forecaster said it; not gold bug.

    Nov 27, 2015 27:55 AM

    I still like Doc’s timeline. Looking to get in near the bottom in the next 6 months er so. Nickel may be a sleeper metal for the future as it is useable in LENR (Low Energy Nuclear Reactions) with Hydrogen.

    I will miss the roar of the gas powered vehicles but electric is the way.

        Nov 27, 2015 27:14 AM

        Great thoughts Dan on the value of alternate nuclear energy ideas. Some are mentioning the return of Thorium powered nuclear. Another cool idea is What IBC Advanced Alloys is doing with Beryllium coated-Uranium pellets. It would have a much lower temperature, and be much more stable than current methods.

        Hope all is well. What Silver companies are you liking these days? Are you still following A-Z mining?

          Nov 27, 2015 27:20 AM

          Yup. Still have it and Scorpio, FR, GPR, IPT and Claude and a few others on my radar. I haven’t had the time and especially the money to trade or invest this year. Still working on a small business in cowtown. That is why Doc’s timeline may work out perfectly for me. (;-)

            Nov 27, 2015 27:25 AM

            That’s a good list of silver companies. Impact Silver was up nicely today.

            Now I remember you mentioning the new business venture last time. Well that is one of the best investments = your own business, and it keeps one motivated to succeed when their hard work can affect the investment. Hope all is working out well, and that you’ll have a little funny money to throw at the miners if we get the lows soon, or in 2016.

            Wishing you all the success you deserve Dan. Cheers!

            Nov 27, 2015 27:00 PM
            Nov 27, 2015 27:23 PM

            Do you follow Norilsk Nickel? (NILSY) They also have a large Palladium credit.

            Here is their overview:

            Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel (NILSY)
            Business Summary

            Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel, together with its subsidiaries, engages in prospecting, exploration, extraction, refining, and metallurgical processing of minerals; and production, marketing, and sale of base and precious metals. It operates in GMK Group, Group KGMK, Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta, Other metallurgical, and Other non-metallurgical segments.

            The company produces nickel, palladium, platinum, and copper, as well as various by-products, such as cobalt, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium, and sulfur. It is also involved in the rental of equipment, gas extraction, electricity production and distribution, construction, repairs, geological works, spare parts production, distribution, science, fuel supply, river shipping operations, sea port, and airport businesses, as well as acts as an air company. The company was formerly known as Open Joint Stock Company ‘Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel’ and changed its name to Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel in May 2015. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Dudinka, the Russian Federation.

        Nov 27, 2015 27:19 AM

        I do like that LENR doesn’t have the radioactive concerns, and the method using Nickel or Palladium would be bullish for both those metals for the longer term.

    Nov 27, 2015 27:00 AM

    Sales of gold contracts came during London hours. Silver declined less, which is unusual. Japanese rates in the negative. This is after years of attempting to stoke inflation:

    http://www.cnbc.com/bonds-japan-treasurys/

    Nov 27, 2015 27:11 AM

    how come doc is always correct in his technicals…. and gary is wrong in cycles…?
    doc..gold down move..and a bounce up after fomc..OR…significant downward no bounce…that isn’t making sense to me…can you please explain a little?
    thanks

      Nov 27, 2015 27:24 AM

      Agatha….I gave up trying to make sense of what the markets do , a long time ago.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:28 AM

      Gold has not been making sense for over 2 years. Gold moves against all fundamental factors, high physical demand, lower production, war, etc. More bullish it gets, more gold is whacked. It is a power play.

        Nov 27, 2015 27:32 AM

        The market has been making once in million year events so regularly, you know market force is no longer function.

          Nov 27, 2015 27:35 AM

          Same with oil. There are wars in oil producing region middle east. Oil price goes down. Common sense is over powered.

      Ken
      Nov 27, 2015 27:28 AM

      translation

      stay out of gold until it touches 860

    Nov 27, 2015 27:27 AM

    Agatha; here’s the deal. Gary’s intermediate cylce should start to wind down. We should continue to see pressure on the metals going into Fedspeak in the middle of December. The question then becomes: “do we have a situation of sell the rumor and buy the fact” or does Gary’s intermediate cycle last longer after reaction to a potential rate hike by the Fed. The possibility for the latter is the fact that some of the PM stock technicals are saying it will. So you have a contradictory force right now. That could mean we just keep moving lower into 2016 without much of a bump versus a moderate bump and then move lower. That’s why I said what I said. Either way, this is not the low. The key is going to be the reaction after Fedspeak. Hope this helps you understand why I’m equivocating right now.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:35 AM

      The US$ just went through 1.00 and will probably overshoot to the upside as most chart patterns do IMHO. Hey Doc, hope you have a pill to keep from equivocating. (;-)

      Nov 27, 2015 27:30 AM

      A moderate bump does not sound like taking the risk for?

      I keep looking at the Rio Tintos, BHPs, TCKs, etc, and they have been crushed so much this year it is difficult to imagine that they could lose another 50% from here… but that seems to be the real worry on many people’s minds.

      I wonder, just like oil bounced in late summer, whether the banks will soon decide to move into the copper, iron and coal miners for an oil-like pump and dump.

        Nov 27, 2015 27:09 AM

        I’m concerned the commodities still could fall a bit lower for longer, but you raise an interesting question Bob UK. At what point will the institutional investors and hedge funds decide the commodity stocks are low enough, and jump in?

          Nov 27, 2015 27:36 AM

          My gut says soon. Tax loss selling comes and goes. Then they buy in early Dec?

          Or maybe I just need some probiotics.

    Nov 27, 2015 27:41 AM

    thanks doc..I appreciate… I didn’t think you were equivocal…I just didn’t get it..

    Nov 27, 2015 27:16 AM

    The gold bear……..is long in the tooth………but, a toothless bear, still has claws……

    Nov 27, 2015 27:18 AM

    RICK the Ruler……….says….gold going lower……………

      Nov 27, 2015 27:24 AM

      Rule did say…..platinum looked like a consideration…..

        Ken
        Nov 27, 2015 27:26 AM

        granite is better trade since countertops are all the rage

        Nov 27, 2015 27:27 AM

        He also like Uranium and Water plays.

        Nov 27, 2015 27:04 AM

        Frank, I wouldn’t touch platinum here—it’s going lower.

          Nov 27, 2015 27:13 AM

          exactly……….

            Nov 27, 2015 27:16 AM

            When I posted …RICK THE RULER…..said Platinum looked interesting, vs gold……I told EXelsior, that if platinum went in the $700’s I would be a buyer, but only graded coin wise…and at no premium over spot.

            Nov 27, 2015 27:31 AM

            Yes. Sounds like a good plan for the long haul.

            Nov 27, 2015 27:32 AM

            ….that is once we get a little further pullback into the $700’s….

      Nov 27, 2015 27:43 AM

      Just listened to him. He said gold may go lower but eventually it will be an unprecedented move up. Obviously, this is his best time as vulture capitalist. A few years ago he said he saw everything very expensive and now he is buying with both hands. As he said, there are a lot of smart money (include him) around now but there no longer dumb money. One frustration is he like Peter Schiff and Jim Puplava, Rick down-play manipulation.

    Ken
    Nov 27, 2015 27:25 AM

    1 year ago today I mentioned here that USD would break 1.20 by 2016. The gold bugs went lulu.

    Listening to the message today reminds me that you can have 1 trillion charts but if you don;t watch capital flows you are hooped.

    Charts mean nothing. Capital flows were extreme and will get more so. The USD will go to 1.6 now int eh next 5 years.

    Gold is irrelevant in the conversion now. The elites have won. Gold is the tired old relic. Until everyone here is fully on the USD bandwagon and have sold all your physical – gold will just keep dropping.

    Just go to Starbucks do they drop gold bars or swipe their phone. That speaks volumes as to what they perceive as cash.

    It ain’t gold my friends

      Nov 27, 2015 27:27 AM

      Mind to tell us which gold bug went lulu?

      Nov 27, 2015 27:35 AM

      Starbuck over priced, what a way to waste a buck……or six bucks………lol

        Nov 27, 2015 27:37 AM

        Most people driving up to starbucks , have less than $10K saved………..would be my estimate……lol

          Nov 27, 2015 27:32 PM

          K-K-K-K Ken is coming to kill me!

          http://youtu.be/VAgLhr6sHtc

          Nov 27, 2015 27:40 PM

          Frank,
          That is the place to be. That is the new trend. If something can be popular on social media, it will flourish. Today’s peoples are very passive and can be persuaded very easily. I put a pot of excellent bean coffee every am and it costs me much much less than $1.00/cup let alone $6.00.

            Nov 27, 2015 27:32 PM

            fleece the sheep……….a grouping of mindless have to work the rest of their lives because they forgot to save their bucks…………lol

    Ken
    Nov 27, 2015 27:25 AM

    correction by the end of 2016

    Nov 27, 2015 27:44 AM

    I’m sitting here at work watching Black Friday fist fight videos. Gotta love the Internet. Been a slow day. I should have teleworked. DC is a ghost town.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:10 AM

      should be like that all the time……….if the politicians were home more in their districts something productive might get done…for the people, instead of to the people………………..jmho

    Nov 27, 2015 27:46 AM

    Why is everyone so negative? The gold stocks are hardly moving today when months agao they would have sold off a lot. Is it really gold going down or the USD going up? I think it is more the later. If the USD keeps going up, it will cause havoc with emerging markets which will backfire on the US.

    The FED are dumb but they aren’t stupid. They will keep the reigns on the US dollar and gold will be fine. There is no way the USD is going to the moon like everybody says lately. If it does and hits 120 or 130 on the index, it means a worldwide depression and deflation. If that happens, you will want to own some gold anyway. I think they will print more money before that ever happens.

    Everybody needs to relax and just stay with a long term view.

      Nov 27, 2015 27:35 PM

      Nicely said Paul W. Notice when the dollar was much lower, everybody continuously talked about all of the negative situations that would drive the dollar even lower. Gold right now is dependent on the crack of the dollar and the stock market. Both are supported, so of course gold will go down at the moment. And yes, a much stronger dollar will essentially drive the world into a depression, and that is an “end of world” scenario. I typically do not speculate on these types of situations. The last two weeks the miners looked good and the metal bad. Look at today’s action 😉
      Frank, gold/plat 1.25.

        Nov 27, 2015 27:36 PM

        Richard………..I noticed that ….keeping a close eye on the platinum

    Nov 27, 2015 27:25 PM

    remember today is expiation day for dec 15th. always like this at these times—lots of selling!!!

      Nov 27, 2015 27:28 PM

      good point Tim.

    Nov 27, 2015 27:26 PM

    Looking at buying my RUSL position back next week. Putan took my profits back in RUSS. I only have a net gain of $10 between the two. Gonna double down on RUSL when the chart looks right.

    Nov 27, 2015 27:16 PM

    Trump, The Donald was interviewed on 20/20 last night by Barbara Walters. If you look at his surroundings he knows the value of gold because even his personal elevator is gold plated as well as his plumbing fixtures including those on his personal jet. What is there not to like about a family man who can’t be bought by the special interest groups, makes common sense and understands gold. America at this point in their history is lucky to have such a candidate. DT

    bb
    Nov 27, 2015 27:29 PM

    the big move down in gold caused from a rate hike?

      Nov 27, 2015 27:02 PM

      Which rate hike? From 2003 to 2007 rate hiked from 1% to 5.5%, how much did gold drop?