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A focus on GDX and GDXJ

November 30, 2015

Today we focus on GDX and GDXJ with a little coverage on the gold price. GDX and GDXJ have not broken the lows form July while the gold price has. Does this mean that these ETFs have more to fall?

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Discussion
12 Comments
    bb
    Nov 30, 2015 30:25 AM

    Good to hear you sticking to your outlook Doc.
    It seems to me the predictions of gold/silver prices in 2020-25 are working out.
    Ya gotta love it when a plan comes together. lol

    I read a commentary I found easy to agree with expecting gold to go to somewhere between 5-8k, the silver price guesses really seem to me to be just that, guesses.

    Tom
    Nov 30, 2015 30:15 PM

    Long RGLD today. I like this miner.

    Nov 30, 2015 30:47 PM

    Just 8 words about gold to catch its next move.

    Watch that major double bottom on the Euro.

    It’s almost here. See the weekly chart to see what I mean. You will get it right away.

    Nov 30, 2015 30:50 PM

    Hey bird thanks

      Nov 30, 2015 30:52 PM

      Anytime Agatha. We have a positive move in the offing. Coming right up.

        bb
        Nov 30, 2015 30:39 PM

        Bout time you got back Bird.

    CFS
    Nov 30, 2015 30:20 PM

    I am scared about the future!
    Most of the analysis done by economists is based on extrapolations of one sort or another.(I.e. An assumption that there will not be some kind of mathematical discontinuity.)
    American seniors have been worried about our nation’s ability to continue to pay out Social Security.
    They know they are being ripped off by the financial repression of low interest rates.
    Annuities have been used to replace CDs to obtain higher income, but they are only as good as the insurance company under-writing the annuity.
    (And who knows what derivatives games they have played!)
    I have bought physical gold and silver to try to protect and conserve some of my wealth, but one cannot eat precious metals!

    Doug Bandow, a former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, warns that seniors must plan for “Social Security’s coming crash.”
    He does not say “how”.
    U.S. News & World Report argues that payouts will inevitably end, and says you must learn how to “prepare for the end ……unfortunately not informing “how”

    As you know, Social Security operates as a classic Ponzi scheme — new contributions are used to pay off earlier contributors.

    The problem is twofold: Our government tapped into Social Security savings, and there are not enough new contributors to pay those who already funded the system.

    And the problem is worse than any government agency wants to admit. Mathematically,

    Wecould see the end of Social Security as soon as 2016,

    and there is nothing President Obama, Congress or
    any other government agency can do to stop it.

    Yes, the Government can always just print money and pay social security with newly-created money, and this is probably what will happen for a period of time. However,there are five massive cracks in the American economy’s foundation that are converging for the first time in history. This is a landmark development that Imay well trigger the greatest depression we’ve ever seen…..possibly worse than the 1929 Great Depression.
    My best guess is that we will have a period of deflation, followed by a period of high inflation.
    The big difference this time is that it will probably be world-wide and there is no safe-haven. And that, of course, is if the stupid folks in power don’t force another world war.
    What are the best options?

      Nov 30, 2015 30:31 PM

      Many great points. Social security for seniors is one thing but I believe the real problem is Medicare. These costs are rising in a parabolic fashion that cannot be controlled. The government is waiting way too long to address this hole. This system is broken and is going to be a much greater problem than social security. Maybe Obamacare was the “fix” as seniors or “new to be” seniors are pushed onto this system. As for deflation, it seems as if the elite will attempt to protect their savings more prior to deflation by diversifying in other assets. Too early to tell yet, but I am not in the deflation camp now.

    Nov 30, 2015 30:09 PM

    Since the late 1960’s there has been only one single incident of a bear market in gold that resulted in prices falling 50% from the peak. That was the gold crash of 1981 which eviscerated the stackers and hoarders of the day. So in other words, of all the major gold bears of the past half century, only one saw declines of that magnitude. The question is, will we see another this time round or have we seen the worst of our fall already?
    https://shortsideoflong.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Gold-Downtrend-Analogue.png

      Tom
      Nov 30, 2015 30:19 PM

      Well, the bubble popped in the 80s and it took 20+ years just to get things going again. A correction is one thing but to do nothing for 20 years is another. I don’t have 20+years to wait. Worst probably isn’t over.