Market wrap with Doc on US equities, gold and the USD
Doc wraps up the day with his take on the moves in the markets today. We focus first on the US markets and the move higher. Next is the precious metals small move up today and relate that to the downward move to the dollar. We do not see any trend changes overall though. Also it is important to note that we are in December and some daily moves can be the result of money managers straightening out their books for year end.
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NEW DEBT figures out……$674billion in one month……total debt…$18.8trillion, I think the total revenue is only one Trill for the entire year, so that means we blew throught 65% in one month.
FED’s balance sheet is going to expand……….they are now 80 times levered…..this should be interesting going into FED MEETING…….
Faux Show……..and Faux Real……Fed Extravaganza.
I think it is the accumulation during early this year where government was borrowing money from its pension funds and other funds. They just returned the money after the debt ceiling is raised.
they returned the money…..HELLO…and you know that as fact…
The money is gone……..there is no way the pensions are going to be paid………better look at Greece as an example…….jmho………….PONZI scheme
Tim Moen Libertarian of Canada really understands the Devil Incarnate:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_jTQXUzjy8Y
A must watch……
Miners had a 4% or so move today I think.
My bad, I meant 2%.
A number of miners I hold or am watching had a pretty good day:
Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY) -NYSE
2.26 Up 0.16(7.62%) 4:01PM EST
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) -NYSE MKT
0.97 Up 0.04(3.90%) 4:00PM EST
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) -NYSE
2.66 Up 0.10(3.91%) 4:02PM EST
Hecla Mining Co. (HL) -NYSE
2.00 Up 0.07(3.63%) 4:01PM EST
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SAND) -NYSE MKT
2.73 Up 0.09(3.41%) 4:00PM EST
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) -NYSE
3.49 Up 0.15(4.49%) 4:02PM EST
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM) -NYSE Watchlist
2.52 Up 0.06(2.44%) 4:01PM EST
Tahoe Resources Inc. (TAHO) -NYSE Watchlist
9.07 Up 0.26(2.95%) 4:02PM EST
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) -NasdaqGS Watchlist
5.48 Up 0.23(4.38%) 4:00PM EST
Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK) -NYSE Watchlist
1.48 Up 0.06(4.23%) 4:02PM EST
My best holding for the day was in Uranium. Most of the Uranium producers performed well today, but Ur-Energy had a really nice pop:
UR-Energy Inc. (URG) -NYSE MKT
0.5650 Up 0.0451(8.67%) 4:00PM EST
OK, maybe 4 was right. I am playing NUGT and watching ASM. My new NUGT shares are up 3.5%.
Well done sir.
Yes, I have some Avino Silver and Gold right now. I really like their assets, management, and upside with the takeover mine and old tailings that they plan on mining.
NUGT looks very good to me Jason. Its a buy in my books. Already up 23% since November 17th (there is that date again) despite the fact gold fell almost 15 dollars near to 1050 in the same time period. What does that imply about what happens next when gold actually does start to rise?
Doc, what is the symbol for the vix. thanks
Think Doc is referring to buying/selling the VIXY.
There is also UVXY and TVIX.
I decided to pick up a small position in TVIX today as it dipped down. Volatility is getting a little too low, and I expect a little shakeup going into this particular FOMC meeting that may present a nice short-term trade. We’ll see how it goes…..
Good thoughts Doc. I am looking at things in similar way with Gold maybe having a nice pop (after a pullback in the dollar), but ultimately I’m cautious going into the FOMC meeting. It really comes down to how the market reacts to a rate hike announcement, or if the Fed does one of their classic “kick the can” moments.
And none of us have a clue do we – even if Yellen went on TV 5 minutes before the announcement saying that rates were going up… or down… I still would not believe her.
Coin toss.
Yep. It’s Fed coin toss, and the markets will likely get bi-polar in anticipation and after whatever Fed Speak Yellen the Felon babbles.
It’s crazy we have got to the place where the entire economic world is hinging on a 25 basis point (potential) hike from a central bank. Fun times!
Thanks Bob UK and Excelsior
Tuesday December 01, 2015
– Barrick Completes Sale of 50% of Zaldívar Mine, Forms Partnership with Antofagasta
(Personal note: I like Antofagasta for a commodity conglomerate)
– Kinross: Paracatu Mine Returns To Full Production After Rainfall
– Brixton Metals To Acquire Past-Producing Langis Silver Mine
– Golden Star ‘Encouraged’ By Feasibility Study For Prestea Underground Mine
Lydian Announces $325 Million Construction Financing for Amulsar Gold Project
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – Dec. 1, 2015)
Midway Executes Asset Purchase Agreement for the Sale of Its 30% Interest in Spring Valley
Endeavour Mining Reports Agbaou Gold Mine Fully Repaid Shareholder Loans in 22 Months
VANCOUVER, Dec. 1, 2015
EXCELSIOR,
Thanks for posting the mining company updates. I had missed 2 of the 3 today.
All The Best,
JIM
Thank you very much for inquiring about the usd Cory, much appreciated! ☺
Wow. I have never seen this site so quiet. This is some kind of record for the number of hours with no posts. And this mornings 9 dollar slide in gold has no doubt caused an outbreak of despondency about the prospects for precious metals.
As if anyone here needed one more down day after so many declines this past while.
Keep your chins up though boys. Its always darkest before the dawn and this current fall is well within the bounds of what we should be expecting at this stage of the game. Gold wants to tag 1050 before it catches a bid and it sure looks like we are going to get there very soon.
Just four bucks to go but the outlook is improving and these kinds of sell-offs actually make me optimistic about the strength of an eventual bounce. I think we may get it next week and that this is a buying opportunity in advance of that bounce.
Not saying this is the final bottom in gold of course. I am only talking about an impending tradeable rally so I am not disheartened at all and neither should you be.
It’s always darkest before dawn? Unless you die before the sun comes up.
It us pretty clear the Fed has set up the ultimate moral hazard in the stock market. Why take risk on r&d and actual capital investment when I can borrow at zero and buy back stock and incur 15% capital gains tax???
There is not much to say…….when the Same old story has been this way for 4 yrs…just unreal how corrupt the system remains.
You could be right of course Bird, but for what I am interested in, Im lookin for a little more support, I will consider about 1040, but I prefer 970-1000.
I don’t use those extra leveraged vehicles you guys use tho.
Here is a question, Doc mentioned a “big move” down could indicate a low being put in, so,…. “big move” is relative,…. $10 didn’t do it,…… whats “big move”?
Im gonna guess its a move to 970-1000, and if we don’t get that soon, he is right about a slow(pretty much) steady decline into fall 2016,.
Does that sound about right to you?
And yes, its been nice and quiet around here. At least the “shortage” screamers have stopped screaming.
bb…..There is a true shortage on COMEX.,….you can not have a levered contract which is 300 to 1, and say there is not a shortage. The next closest commodity is levered only 3 times.
THE WHOLE GAME IS RIGGED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
comex settles in cash no?
Isnt it in the contracts or prospectus or whatever they call it that they can settle in cash?
A shortage on the sge would actually be significant, but comex? not so sure.
It hasn’t been ever since Ive been watching anyway, since 2005/6/7 somewhere in there.
Frank, production has actually increased over the last year, imagine how much it does if price moves up.
imo, forget this shortage stuff, it deceives you.
No matter if its phyz,comex lbma whatever, the significant one would be sge.
……….settle in cash means there is a shortage. You have got the deal all messed up in your mind. You are suppose to be able to receive the” product”, otherwise you just have PAPER FIAT(metal).
COMEX is setting the PRICE……which is suppressed by the 300 times leverage.
THE COMEX HAS NO GOLD!
Frank, where do phyz buyers actually get their phyz?
Do you go to the comex for phyz?
Does Toyota? Maybe the question should be “who actually does get their phyz from the comex?”
Frank, billionares, companies that actually want silver for production, that have any concern at ll, will do a deal with a mine directly, or buy a mine outright.
Comex has nothing to do with it.
Comex is paper, we know that, you guys keep shouting “ITS PAPER” 300-1
Comex is paper, maybe at one time it was phyz dominant, but if I wanted say 500 tons, I wouldn’t bother with the comex.
bb..
from my understanding there are members of LBMA AND COMEX, with actually take delivery. Delivery, means they expect the metals to be there when they want the phyz.
I also, understand that since. 2004, some of the members of the LBMA, has departed the membership.
You mentioned that LARGE BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY…go direct. Why, did MISTSIBUSHI just depart the membership of LBMA? Did they have a mine?
If, your statement applies to the PRICING of COMEX, then why even have comex.
Please provide some information concerning the LARGE corporation going direct to the mines.
Seems that you have info that would be valuable for the COMEX CROWD.., if, you can provide. If, your information is accurate, then we should not discuss the “SHORTAGE IN on the Comex any further.
bb…….can you buy on the SGE? What I buy and sell is effected by the COMEX, and so is everyone in Canada.
Funny……..that KITCO……..has a chart of comex pricing, why don’t you tell them the Price does not make any difference.
IF PRICING made no difference, then why are the MINERS complaining they are losing money, and can not pull the metals out of the ground at $12-22 oz.?
Frank,
I don’t have the names of the companies that bought direct from mines, its been months since I read about them. Could be more than a year, maybe 2.
The same thing may have happened with platinum.
These companies, or anyone actually, can purchase direct from mines, if I recall correctly, they were Chinese/Japanese buyers buying from Australian mines.
Check First Majestic, your buying refined and minted product direct from their mines.
Another option is to buy an entire mine, which Ive read the occasional billionare does.
That metal never “hits the market” and isn’t counted in supply from that point on I would imagine.
Sorry I don’t recall the names of the companies or which mines.
I do understand the price is determined with paper.
Ed Steer, would repeatedly state he wouldn’t own a mining share as he considered them all complicit in the corruption.
With the odd exception, First Majestic I believe attempted to do something about it but failed, I think that was them but cant be sure anymore.
Ed Steer is the guy that has all that kinda info, but ya gotta subscribe now, for years his work was free from Casey Research.
I don’t agree that “settle in cash” is a shortage, nor do I think a mint not producing enuff eagles is a shortage, a shortage of eagles maybe, but not a shortage of silver.
The mint either didn’t calculate their sales correctly and under ordered silver or the machines are required for other products.
None of this “shortage” or Comex stuff matters, silver is going to have its day, I expect between 2020-2025.
Well, that is if they don’t start mining asteroids cheap, lol
bb……thanks for the follow up.
Interesting concerning ED’S comments on mines……I think I would have to agree with his, I guess that is why have never purchased any mining share.
Maybe, the meaning of shortage……in your view , can be explained away. But, a shortage, on COMEX is a shortage.
Maybe…….we could get BOB M. to come back and give us some terminology ….since, he was so brilliant on “naked shorts”……….just saying…………….CLAW
I don’t know bb. Guess Doc will have to answer that one. My interest is pretty much only the usual up-wave following a long decline like we have been having. I suppose we cannot rule out even steeper declines but what I look at is telling me we will have a corrective rise first although its never easy to predict how strong it will be. Although the major trend for gold remains down we did get five worthy bounces during the past year. Those came in January, March, May, August and October. Not exactly clockwork but they were still somewhat regular in their spacing. The next one could begin in December (speaking of miners here) unless the cycle stretches to early January which has happened the past few years. I wouldn’t ruin Christmas over it though. In my case I am buying but far too often I am early in the trade so my example may not be the most helpful. My excuse though is that miners have so little downside in them that this has become almost a risk free trade at these levels. I will just wait it out without worrying I missed the rebound when it does come.
I actually figure you were right with your last 2 calls about a move up, they were really weak tho.
Your last before this, we could say you missed it was so weak.
There is just so little interest in gold right now.
ALL, phyz demand has been met, there is no worry on anyones mind at this time.
Just how I see it.
Miners are risky here, profit is on a knife edge. a small move down and ya bought a loseing company, dividend payers, bonds, even gic are more secure.
BMO is offering 4% over 4 years If I recall correctly, remember my mention of their interest rate rise?
I am convinced Doc has got it figured, until proven otherwise, my China increases buying at $1000 has not been tested yet.
This, by the way, coincides with Doc and political events perfectly.
Thx 4 ur response, good 2 have u back.
I don’t see miners as risky at all. I am following about 15 right now and not one of them suffered a technical set back today despite golds decline. What I mean is that most were down today but it was nothing to fret over as their trends are still intact. In fact, as far as I can see all have just presented better entry points than yesterday and that includes NUGT. So I am adding to the position.
All the best to you too, bb.
HYG has bottomed. SPX headed to the moon. Not saying it’s right, but the Fed and ECB are forcing people into the market at gunpoint.
Just another day….of smack down..from NY CRIMEX………..paper FIAT GOLD.
IT’S A TOTAL CRIMINAL OPERATION!
They are trying hard to get silver under 14. This is a very frustrating period for investing since you have no idea which market the want to hit at what time.
Just buy GOOG. Like put ever dime to your name their. Guaranteed, NSA backed oligarch that is taking over the web
Al, this doing a DD on companies is probly a good idea, if we are going to get a grind until about fall 2016 as Doc suggests, being prepared to buy would be prudent.
At this point, might I suggest, specifically looking at “burn rate” and money in the bank, companies may very well need to stay alive on their own for about another year.
Yes, lots more to DD but that might be paramount about now.
Sarcasm aside, the whole S&P overlaid with Fed balance sheet chart is alive and well still. If one could call that an investment thesis, one would not expect new highs in $SPX without a an expansion of QE. But politically, how can the Fed expand their balance sheet (base money) with the stock market at all time highs???
Commercials are short the dollar, but not in huge quantity:
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1448916502.php