The Four Musketeers provide a new format for The Daily Market Wrap
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that is the bull getting ready to breakout……….
Then let him loose! 🙂
The authorities will not let him out of the nursing home! (Danger to himself and others!)
I am sure that it was me. Those of us who live in nursing homes sometimes forget what we are doing or where we are!
Never been called a bull before, maybe a bull******
THE we sould just call it the ****** ER REPORT
THE…..to Then
Nursing home, wtf? I thought you were home along time ago.
No Eddie, they would not let met out. Claim that I could injure myself or someone else!
…but who was snotting throughout the discussion?
Adds character to the broadcast.
Probably me, but I don’t remember. Time makes no sense here in the nursing home!
Really bad when UK tries to ban TRUMP ……..
He just can’t say some of the things that he says. He is perhaps, to an extent, theoretically correctly but not to raise rancor a person needs to say things correctly!
Bob UK,
That was a damn good article, because it’s true.
Nice summary gentlemen……….
Thanks Frank,
I like this new twist a little better.
What would be a good fund to go long on the S&P
SPX or if you want 2 x leverage then SSO
Interest rates have to decline, so gold prices should see marvellous improvement if and when that occurs, so we go over to TLT and take a look at the spread between treasuries and gold:
Prior to 2014/2015 when the commodity rout and dollar climb went into overdrive, you can see the good correlation between Long term treasuries and Gold. I believe after we see a small rate hike that this correlation will re-establish itself.
Axel Merk, Stewart Thompson, and even Matthew have pointed out that the last few times in history when the Fed raised rates (especially when the Real Rates are still in negative territory) that it actually was bullish for Gold. I am not sure Big Al or the general investing community really gets this yet.
Conventional herd wisdom is the following:
“Gold is expected to struggle once the U.S. central bank raises interest rates, as the precious metal doesn’t pay interest and costs money to hold, making it less appealing that other havens like Treasury bonds. But any delay to higher rates will likely trigger a rally in gold prices, analysts say.” –Tatyana Shumsky
This is exactly why the COT report shows the Hedge Funds going so aggressively short going into the Dec 16th FOMC. They believe that once the rates start rising that it is all over for Gold. For the initial announcement they may be temporarily correct. Mid-term they will be dead wrong.
As Doc and I discussed the other day, after reviewing that Claude Maund article, the Commercials are in their most bullish posture in a long time (14 years) and they are typically the “smarter money” because they are sourcing materials for supply.
Once the investing community gets it through it’s thick skulls that a 25 basis point rise is small potatoes, and Real rates will still be negative, then Gold may start to get a bid. This may lead to a really nice short covering rally from the over-confident Hedge Funds, and it may teach them a valuable less about Precious Metals.
There are NO perfect correlations. The USD and Gold do not have to always be an inverse relationship. The Yen and Gold track most closely, but they don’t have to keep doing that. The Long-Term treasuries used to track with Gold, but the last 2 years they’ve had an inverse relationship, but that can flip back as well (and likely will). Lastly, just because the Fed raises rates doesn’t equate to Gold sinking. Initially the knee-jerk reaction will be to sell Gold, but then when reality sets in that we are not at 4-6% interest rates and it is still a negative environment, and the Fed is backed into a corner, then Gold will spike and catch those Hedgies on the wrong side of the trade. Now, if they continually keep raising rates, then there is a point where Gold will suffer. I find it hard to believe we can raise rates 200-400 basis points, so that isn’t going to happen anyway.
I just wanted to take a moment and clarify this point.
fransix adam hamilton & stewart thomson can not agree w you.. 321gold/
apologize to all for repeating.
I think people have lost touch with the advances that gold prices have made, especially in $CAD, $AUD. Miners domiciled in these countries have it in the bag!
Al- BECAUSE we all can go to cnbc… keep it at home… you don’t need cnbc at ker… thats compliment… don’t lose your signature.
Fair enough, Agatha, thank you.
Have to agree with A…..
Obammiecare penalty going up to nearly 1 grand. So the hoi poloi can spend many thousands a year for what amounts to when you factor in the huge deductibles, a crappy catastrophic insurance package or be fined nearly a grand.
How much more of this will people take? When will they over throw this corrupt, tyrannical, POS government?
EBOLAN,
Agreed. What would it take to have you take a run at POTUS?
All The Best,
JIM
Doc, you are correct. When oil drops hard really soon, it’s going to crush a lot of companies. I will add, when gold starts it’s next leg down, companies will get crushed. All of this is good news to the investor. We are going to have a stock picking hayday!
The people I feel bad for are the average Joe that has the 401k that’s about to evaporate. Most of the companies that are getting washed out are the ones that need to get washed out for the falsified values. And that includes the top 500.
As for the dollar not moving any commodities. What do you expect, it’s no longer the worlds reserve currency…
After a tough day like today I suggest you all listen to this…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1gcZWJEXSKs
And if you didn’t like that version you can try this one…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7TSm3GpQNoE
Really great music, Thanks Eddie.
Another Really Cool from Big Al
Hy Al, where is Gary? He was always one of the Musketeers.
As I told Agatha above, he is climbing in Mexico.
where is Gary..??
Climbing in Mexico.
He is climbing a wall of worry!
Miners definitely going lower from today. Question is how much lower? Given the action this week, I am inclined to believe that we will see new lows in PMs and the miners post-Fed. It’s what they want. Commodity inflation is the CBs worst enemy and will expose them. The longer they can keep input costs low, the longer they can drag this whole mess out.
I am still long AUY and AXU. I will stop out of AUY at $1.85. AXU is nothing more than a long dated call option on silver.
Good thoughts Spanky. I agree things may get hit to the downside after the Fed meeting (temporarily). However, I wrote this morning up above about why there may be a reversal in that trend once reality sets in that Real rates are still negative regardless of a 25 basis point rise, and this may finally give PMs a bid.
I have positions in about 8 silver/gold miners that have been trimmed into strength and are sitting at good cost basis points. I’m going to ride out the temporary storm and average down if things go down in PM miners personally. (maybe I’m a glutton for punishment though 🙂
Guys, thanks for the market update…but who was snotting throughout the discussion? Please mute 🙂