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December 12, 2015

Hour 1: 

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Hour 2: 

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Hour 1:

  • Segment 1-2: Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report chats about the topping pattern in the US markets and the COT report for gold.
  • Segment 3: The National Investor Chris Temple joins us to address the gloom and doomers out there who have been calling for a crash for far too long.
  • Segment 4: Laurent Patrick Gally and Richard Postma, AKA Doc, discuss the timing of oil bottoming in 2016.
Hour 2:

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Discussion
245 Comments
    Dec 12, 2015 12:05 AM

    Thanks once again for the weekend show guys….but.
    Remember when Hemke ate his hat?….amusing but seriously…..
    What a fool.
    Been nothing but wrong, wrong, wrong…..all the way down !!
    You might want to rename this the CLOWN report if your gonna want advice from him.

    …..track records speak volumes….hey.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:00 AM

      It is very easy to be “right” when all you are doing is following the King’s spoken and unspoken edicts. You are not acting according to logic or art, but merely following human psychology at that point.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:17 AM

        Please explain Mr Pace. I am a bit slow this morning

          Dec 13, 2015 13:01 PM

          Technical analysts and spokesmen who merely parrot or give credence to what government propaganda is being officially put out are not using “science”. Corruption follows from the top administration but also from an environment of “don’t rock the boat” at lower levels. If all you do is take all governmental and corporate press releases at face value, without doing any of your own research, then you are just following someone else’s direction. If all you do is judge your statements by how your boss, or the King, will accept your statements, then all you care about is being obedient, not being right to a higher law.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:45 AM

      Turd thought this to be relevant enough to post this on his blog…

      http://kiddynamitesworld.com/the-worst-precious-metals-meme-of-2015/

        Dec 12, 2015 12:04 AM

        Late Morning Post
        By Turd Ferguson | Tuesday, December 8, 2015 at 1:02 pm

        snippet…

        Lastly, I’d like to draw you attention to something which was sent to me earlier. I have a long history with this particular blogger and here’s what I know. He is a former DoucheBank gold trader and he’s always been desperate to prop up the current paper derivative pricing structure and, by extension, his former employer (which teeters in insolvency, as noted above). To that end, he repeatedly blasts many of us in the gold blogosphere as know-nothing “charlatans” and “con men”. However, it is HE who is disingenuous and HE is the one who uses half-truths and falsehoods in his assertions…and this latest is full of examples.

        link to whole article http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7319/late-morning-post

          Dec 12, 2015 12:30 AM

          Thanks future

        Dec 12, 2015 12:58 AM

        Good article , Mike

          Dec 12, 2015 12:27 AM

          If that doesn’t open some eye’s then nothing will.
          Bottomline: all the bullish COT trend analysis has been wrong up to this point but it hasn’t stopped some from claiming that the big squeeze is always right around the corner.

          The can kicking element to this can keep going on how much longer? Another 3, 5, 10 or 20 years?

          Dec 12, 2015 12:27 AM

          Thanks Mike! That was enlightening. Mostly I have just ignored this whole Comex fraud story because its such nonsense so I really appreciate there is someone out there combating those who keep manipulating the information. Not to mention all the blather on this topic is so mind numbing and BORING. As if it makes any difference at all. Most of us just trade the derivatives anyway and keep busy scalping the bull-tards.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:32 AM

            As always thanks Bird

            Dec 12, 2015 12:47 AM

            I’m sure what I’ve been saying hasn’t gone over well with some and that’s understandable.
            I would hope that some still open minds at some point would start considering the exact opposite of what they’ve been carefully spoon fed and wordcrafted over the years.

            Look no further then that silly misleading HEH nonsense and what that was all about years ago. A completely misleading narrative based on keeping people’s hopes up and nothing more.
            For the record…
            The USD is not collapsing anytime soon…
            The Chinese yuan or BRICS based economies are not going to overtake the USD anytime soon…
            A massive silver or gold squeeze is not imminent nor was it years ago…
            There is no real shortage of gold or silver, it’s readily available…
            US interest rates will go up. Why wouldn’t they?
            QE was not to infinity…and the taper was in fact real. Why would anyone rationally think otherwise?
            Sentiment and action in commodities overall has been terrible.Why would gold/silver be any different at this point?
            China’s accumulation of gold wan’t and isn’t the short or medium term magic bullet. There is none.

            Sentiment is lousy and cyclical and the chart damage (not to mention investor confidence) has been badly famaged and will take years to repair or forget.

            Yes., it sucks for anyone of us who hold metals and at one time thought or believed otherwise. But this entire myth, if not outright fabricated yarn, that most metals blooger continue to perpetuate and hold out hope if not outright indignation has shone most openminded folks that all that glistens is not gold or silver etc.
            Beware of the glistening forked tongue that has consistently spoken out of both sides of their mouth while laying blame and ridicule at others who at least had a clue years ago.
            Those folks who dared question the trends were mocked/ridiculed but they were right.
            Since when did being right not matter? Beuller?Anyone?

            You can hate the messenger or dislike the message but ask yourself this…why are they so emotionally invested in keeping blatantly spun and negative trend alive while mostly trying spin it bullish “any day/week/moth/year” all the time?

            Because you’re a potential paying customer, reality be damned, that’s why.
            Nothing more, nothing less.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:48 AM

            For a trader it does not matter since it is just speculation or gambling to be more precise. But if you try to invest with a sure win, more you know the better. I don’t think I can beat GS supercomputer HFT so I choose to invest long term and follow logic. Logic may not win all the battles but it will win the war because the world is ruled by logic. My concern is to increase the odds of wining instead squeeze a cents a day.

            bb
            Dec 12, 2015 12:15 PM

            I have to ask, “is that funny or am I missing something?”

            After looking into PM investing, I discovered I figured the whole industry top to bottom was/is corrupt, is this article from Turd just more evidence of that?

            Dec 12, 2015 12:02 PM

            The world is ruled by logic?

            Oh how I wish that were the case Lawrence.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:36 PM

            Off course, logic is the natural law. Eventually logic dictate the outcome. Otherwise there will not be science.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:42 PM

            In market, it is the basic supply and demand. The derivation of this rule is the money printing results in inflation, this is because the increased supply of money results in cheapening of itself. Suppose there is no logic in market, what prevents government to create unlimited wealth to make everyone happy? I am sure all emperors love to lead a rich nation. There will not be revolutions and empires last forever, right?

            Dec 13, 2015 13:43 AM

            All this talk starts with the gold “experts” who generally speaking are so inept when it comes even to understanding the market the allegedly are expert in (let alone the others) that they need to fall back to this and other straw man excuses to help explain why gold doesn’t go up $100/day until Kingdom Come. This nonsense is intellectually lazy (and proof that these people really aren’t “experts”) at best; deliberately misleading at worst.

            And as before, once gold does turn for good and screams higher they’ll fall over each other to claim that they predicted this. The trouble is, their followers are down 90% from the last peak; and it’s going to be quite a ways before they even get back to break even, while the smarter investors are going to be well ahead of the game.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:22 AM

            Ignore the comex fraud story at you’re own risk. How many markets have been proven to have been manipulated? No jail time for anyone just fines that don’t add up an incentive to not do anymore manipulation. Remember , they make just as much going down as going up.
            But with gold, it’s not in their hands. China and Russia may soon put the hammer down on them.
            It’s called the golden rule.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:49 AM

            Pure comedy Greg. Of all commodities gold has fallen THE LEAST!!!!

            That means it has more catching up to do.

            You have got to wake up a lot earlier in the morning to pull that smoke and mirrors around here. Please cut the BS.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:47 PM

            Birdman, It’s my belief that they are taking gold down as efficiently as possible to make the dollar look better as Volker said he should have done in the 80’s. They can’t go all out to collapse it because they have to many leaks in the dike already. But ultimately the price will be set by those who own the most gold , can you say China and Russia?. But if you believe paper money is more valuable, that’s fine with me. I’m just trying to be a bit early.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:25 AM

        Thanks Mike,

        More from us on this later.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:48 AM

          Thanks Al for having the guts and maturity for allowing some to vent and sound a word of caution to others.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:14 PM

            Why would I not do that Mike?

        Dec 12, 2015 12:11 PM

        A classic lack of foresight or humility 3 1/2 years ago…

        http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170246#comment-170246

        …and the folks who thought $1050 or lower gold was possible were castigated as being, in Turds own words, “a$$wipes”?

        What does that make the person who thought $1200 or $1050 had/has zero chance?

        I don’t recall any hat eating at $1200 gold but maybe he’ll adorn himself in toilet paper like a tree when we officially close below $1050 instead of the intraday $1048 that already took place.

        Beware of anyone ridiculing or telling you what can’t happen while at the same time they’re unequivocally telling you what’s about to happen and then why it didn’t.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:24 PM

          oops………..add TURD the 143 others who were wrong…….

            Dec 12, 2015 12:19 PM

            Remember that we censor no one. And also remember that none of us are short term thinkers. We bring on guests and only endorse those who we feel truly deserve to be endorsed.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:29 AM

            If, you remember , several months ago, I suggested we bring TURD on the show….just saying.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:31 AM

            Sprott, now has TURD, on his pod cast………..just started collaboration last week.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:41 AM

            Smells like desperation.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:50 AM

            So you suggested Turd?

            Figures.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:31 AM

            He, he, ha,ha……….love ya tweety….

            Dec 13, 2015 13:32 AM

            watch it, we were doing so good……better be nice Santa is coming….

      Dec 12, 2015 12:49 AM

      The MOAMOPE by James C. McShirley is also a silver fairy tale?

      The bottom picture sums up the majority of the gold and silver market. Too bad the miners let their companies get destroyed with Crimex paper games. 324:1 paper gold to physical gold ratios make goldilocks happy.

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-25/moamope-james-c-mcshirley

        Dec 12, 2015 12:09 AM

        No comments on the McShirley article. What about when Jeffrey Christian admitted at a CFTC hearing, the paper gold to physical gold ratio was 100:1?

        As dramatic as this revelation was at the CFTC hearing, there was another bombshell at the hearing. This was the testimony I was able to deliver at the hearing while assisting Harvey Organ with his testimony. I was able to show that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) over-the-counter gold market is nothing but a massive “paper gold” Ponzi scheme. What was then astonishing is that the bullion bank apologist, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group, who has always been staunchly against GATA, endorsed my comments as being “exactly right” and went on to confirm that the LBMA trades more than 100 times the gold it has to back the trades.

        There were lots of almost as equally explosive admissions at the hearing, so I have made a transcript of the relevant section of the webcast. I have posted the two short video clips here and here which are what have been transcribed.

        http://www.gata.org/node/8478

          Dec 12, 2015 12:21 PM

          Thanks Market!

          Dec 13, 2015 13:23 PM

          THanks for the post Markedtofuture…………..

            Dec 13, 2015 13:58 PM

            Armstrong even admitts manipulation, but not all the time. The dumping of thousands of contracts before Fed speak, NFP, holidays and any other excuse to keep metals capped is a figment. The Yen algos don’t follow $gold algos either. Let the market be in awe as the private banking association decides on a quarter point to see if anyone gasps. They robbed the savers to save the banking cabal. They pay chump interest on savings and charge 25% interest on credit cards. Get rid of cash, so they can get a transaction fee on any digital transaction made. Who are the Chumps?

      Dec 12, 2015 12:15 AM

      Morning Skeeta,

      As you know we welcome all opinions.

      Dec 15, 2015 15:11 AM

      I was trading 3x leveraged etns with Turd with success until this :

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/why-did-citigroups-precious-metals-derivative-exposure-just-soar-1260

      If the open interest in the COT didn’t rise this much, where are these traded?

      Soon as anyone figures out the game, the rules change.

    CFS
    Dec 12, 2015 12:18 AM

    Thanks for segment 8. Interesting.

    I look on it as a utility company, with a low P/E ratio.
    (Unfortunately no dividend, but it is growing and appears to be learning from mistakes as it grows.)

    CFS
    Dec 12, 2015 12:24 AM

    This is what caught my attention for US Geothermal:
    (Hoping the data does not compress to unreadable)
    Profitability (LTM)
    Gross Margin: 48.10%
    EBIT Margin: 28.20%
    EBITDA Margin: 48.70%
    Pre-Tax Profit Margin: N/A
    Profit Margin (Cont. Op): 47.38%
    Profit Margin (Total Op): 47.38%
    Management Effectiveness LTM 5 Yr Avg
    Return on Equity 15.40% 0.42%
    Return on Capital 8.29% -0.32%
    Return on Assets 5.47% 0.12%

    Assets
    Asset Turnover: 0.10
    Inventory Turnover: N/A
    Receivable Turnover: 10.30
    Valuation Measures
    P/E Ratio: 5.10
    P/E High – Last 5 Years: N/A
    P/E Avg. High – Last 5 Years: N/A
    P/E Low – Last 5 Years: N/A
    P/E Avg. Low – Last 5 Years: N/A

    Price to Sales: 2.14
    Price to Book: 0.77
    Price to Tangible Book: 0.94
    Price to Cash Flow: 5.60
    Price to Free Cash: 12.80

      Dec 12, 2015 12:34 AM

      Thanks Professor,

      Seems like a good company for those interested in th ed industry.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:47 AM

    Hemke has no clue about the markets. I will give you the SECRET of the markets. Are you listening? For EVERY Buyer of a contract there is a SELLER. Got that? So the idea that “Commercials or the Junta” PIN the market with “newly” created paper contracts is just plain STUPID. Forget that those sellers have to BUY back their contracts at some point, the fact is there is AN ARBITRAGE between physical gold and the futures contracts. If the Junta wanted to destroy or force down the gold market, then why not offer the Feb. gold futures contract at $100? They can’t because of arb. buyers at $1,073.

    It is the sheer constant stupidity of Hemke that is breathtaking. He should get a job.

    And please, I will pay someone $1,000,000 to show me WITH FACTShow the market can be Manipulated from $250 to $1,921 down to $1,050. How, I forgot, ONLY when the market for gold in US $ goes down is it manipulation.

    BRING BACK BO POLNY–at least he is funny.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:04 AM

      Here we go with “the market is legal” again. There are people operating this market (i.e., US, UK, Japan, India, et al) illegally. If you will not accept the evidence from GATA and non-technical analysts, then don’t point and laugh at the people who get pickpocketed in the marketplace.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:08 AM

      John, the good thing is when they run out of these Bozo’s (several years) the PM market will finally bottom. Man have we seen a pile of losers and bottom callers or what?

        Dec 12, 2015 12:03 AM

        No one can call a bottom or top consistently–it is all sound and fury, but there is n excuse for not understanding how a market works. You don’t need to know when the bottom is in for gold miners, just that the market declines over the past five to six years will bring us closer to better financial returns for the surviving, well-managed companies. The fundamentals (the REAL price of gold — gold/oi; gold/commodities) is sky-rocketing for the miners.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:38 AM

        Bobby,

        Therein lies the reason why my personal motives are so very different.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:18 AM

      One question…………HOW does the commodity market in gold get levered 300 to 1(legitimately)

        Dec 12, 2015 12:18 AM

        The same way it gets levered 30,000 to 1.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:29 AM

          Paper settlement…………

          Dec 12, 2015 12:32 AM

          the same way fiat gets created ….paper imagination

            Dec 12, 2015 12:40 AM

            Focus on what is above………..all else is vanity…

            Dec 12, 2015 12:15 AM

            historically, the chart speaks for itself…………..

            Dec 12, 2015 12:17 AM

            ETF gold was created in 2005, ………….yes or no.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:32 AM

            The inventory level in COMEX may not indicate that it is going to default. It does indicate that the shorts are running wild. They are not concerned about their safety and protected in case they are not able to deliver. The other indicator is that COMEX is no longer a viable market. The world produce 2600 ton plus another 1300 from recycled gold. As the price setting exchange, it should deliver proportional amount of gold. The fact that it does not deliver much indicate it will be irrelevant in the future once other exchanges start setting the price. COMEX will not able to fight large delivery request from the arbitrage .

            Dec 13, 2015 13:33 AM

            COMEX AND THE FIX…………….what a comedy show……

      Dec 12, 2015 12:27 AM

      New report out……….Silver demand 30% higher than reported.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:11 AM

      With gold headed to $1000 and silver sporting a $13 handle how can anyone even continue to pretend to claim they ever really had or have any insight at all going forward?

      Can someone please tell me what they actually got right that actually mattered at this point?
      All I see is a self-absorbed exercise to keep everyone onboard and their hopes (or fears) alive. Why?

        Dec 12, 2015 12:32 AM

        Insight…….no one has insight on this blog, only exchange of ideas.
        Pretend……no one that is aware of false facts is pretending anything.
        What actually got right……..is buy low and sell high, lick your wounds if you were wrong

          Dec 12, 2015 12:59 AM

          “…aware of false flags…”

          That whole pretense of knowing what is unknowable (false flag) right after an event takes place isn’t an awareness or knowledge.

          It’s a knee jerk paranoid response that immediately excludes all other possible legitimate or natural causes of that event.
          The whole “sky is falling” condition that some live under must be suffocating to some extent. It’s unbalanced.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:41 AM

            Agreed Mike. I, for one, choose to sleep well at night.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:20 AM

            if you have to believe ‘official’ stories totally obfuscating the truth… you are the victim.. sleeping well or not sleeping well.Head in the sand works as well..the sky has fallen on many……and much of that is military industrial evil. It destroyed many lives on 9/11 as well including first responders. But never mind…there never was any plane in Shanksville…
            but who cares…
            But, go on sleeping well Al…

            Dec 12, 2015 12:58 AM

            false flags are like liars…………beware, and do not associate with same.

            GH
            Dec 13, 2015 13:57 AM

            hmm… first, he said ‘false facts’, not ‘false flags’.

            But on the topic of false flags. As with your long post above debunking many of the popular precious metals memes, much of what you say is just straw-man argument.

            Lets take on clear example, flight MH17. Who came out with a pre-prepared explanation and propaganda blitz instantly? The US, casting blame on Russia. Were there ‘conspiracy theorists’ who claimed to KNOW what happened? Probably so, I don’t know–there are fools on all sides. But responsible, intelligent people knew it was far from clear that the narrative pushed by the US was true. And as the weeks and months passed and the dust settled, it became clear that the more likely explanation (no CERTAINTY) was that it was an attack by that Kiev regime with the approval of the US interests that fomented the coup. If it were otherwise, the Kiev regime and the US would have presented evidence to support their accusations.

            I don’t know if your posts are your honest thinking or speaking with a forked tongue. Amounts to about the same to me.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:40 AM

          Amen Frank. A very valuable exchange of ideas.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:36 AM

      Not funny John, but ridiculous. Good comment from you.

      LPG
      Dec 12, 2015 12:45 AM

      J. Chew,

      Totally disagree w. that part of your analysis, which is FACTUALLY INACCURATE:
      “Commercials or the Junta” PIN the market with “newly” created paper contracts is just plain STUPID. Forget that those sellers have to BUY back their contracts at some point,”

      As a matter of fact, in the futures market, if you are short something, you do NOT have to buy back your contract. You can also deliver the commodity. Has it ever occurred to you why metal producers sell their production forward via futures at times?

      GL to you,

      LPG

        Dec 12, 2015 12:55 AM

        good point LPG……

          Dec 12, 2015 12:03 PM

          Fine. A producer can sell forward 1,000 years of his production if he can find a buyer, but what does that have to do with the long-term price of gold or any commodity. for every buyer there is a seller–the question is at WHAT PRICE.

          A magazine publisher can sell forward a ten year subscription–but at what price.

          What is your point?

            LPG
            Dec 12, 2015 12:25 PM

            J. Chew,

            I believe I initially misread the spirit of your comment.
            My bad + apologies on that one.

            Still, your statement re: buying back contracts was factually inaccurate – as you realized. 😉 No biggy.

            Best,

            LPG

      Dec 13, 2015 13:01 PM

      I vote for the selling of a large amount of naked shorts contracts at the worst time to maximize the drop.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:05 AM

    Let me clarify: Mr. Hemke is a fine gentleman, but what he SAYS is nonsensical, dumb, incorrect or whatever adjective you choose to describe nonsense.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:03 AM

      Yeah I like the guy to listen to now and then – he seems a nice chap but do not think that he is right and hasn’t been since he started broadcasting as far as I can see.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:08 AM

    ********** FAKE AND PHONY RETAIL SALES BY THE GOV’T ARE A COMPLETE ILLUSION **********
    Once again………………..someone is lying! A must watch video:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A-2s9RPH_w

      Dec 12, 2015 12:32 PM

      Well okay then why are Kathy and I doing just fine?

        Dec 13, 2015 13:50 AM

        Uuuuuuhhhhh……………………….because you are rich!

          Dec 13, 2015 13:11 AM

          Whose post are you answering Al?

    Dec 12, 2015 12:28 AM

    ******** THE BALTIC DRY INDEX TRIED TO GO UP BUT REVERSED AND IS NOW FALLING LIKE A ROCK ********
    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

    Dec 12, 2015 12:00 AM

    I wanted to ask Doc from his last night’s market wrap:
    What is the case for gold’s being in only a cyclical bear market and not in a secular bear market?

    Dec 12, 2015 12:10 AM

    Informative article on the oil war between Saudi and Russia. I can’t help thinking that this will result in some kind of conflict in 2016 re what is going on in Syria/Iraq.

    ‘Russia plans $40 a barrel oil for next seven years as Saudi showdown intensifies’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12046185/russia-opec-saudi-arabia-bluff-40-oil-price.html

      Dec 12, 2015 12:43 AM

      Very possible UK

    Dec 12, 2015 12:41 AM

    Pertains to segment 2 and the latest COT “analysis” by Turd and others.

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/the-worst-precious-metals-meme-of-2015/

    Dec 12, 2015 12:53 AM

    ******* GREAT TWO PART INTERVIEW: MUSLIMS AGENDA IS TO MAKE IT THEIR WORLD/ AND DR. JIM WILLIE ********
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl6oT1eGSEc
    This is a very good two part interview on what Muslims want to do to Europe and the West when they completely occupy these lands! Later, Dr.Jim Willie on the economy.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:54 AM

      ……..and you fools are coming down on Donald Trump!

        Dec 12, 2015 12:56 AM

        2016 in Europe will be a disaster!

        Dec 12, 2015 12:44 AM

        Not everyone is coming down on him Mark

          Dec 12, 2015 12:08 AM

          I hear you!

            bb
            Dec 12, 2015 12:35 PM

            Mark, I forget which verse but Jesus said he would only be around until the end of the age.
            Kinda looks like Christianity is not as popular as it once was.
            Maybe its inevitable.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:53 AM

    I’m not a lawyer or an accountant but I don’t understand Avi’s reasoning, He say’s “if there is a demand for debt there will be more QE.” Debt is all we have these days so money printing must be going on all the time. Cheap money as Al pointed out has allowed corporations to borrow to buy back their stocks in the market. Not only that but this zero interest rate policy has done nothing but fuel more debt while supporting the stock market. If you can’t roll back the yearly deficit as it keeps increasing the debt time bomb, the amount of money printing is out of control. QE is just another way of saying were still printing but were telling you now. DT

      Dec 12, 2015 12:47 AM

      Makes sense to me Mr TRACY. I firmly believe that is the plan.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:59 AM

    Cool, I see we have taken LPG out of storage and dusted him off. Need to have L on more often, we love his global market analysis.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:06 AM

    Hemke is on point in exposing the mechanics of fraudulent, manipulated markets run out of the Federal Government and the Private Bankers of the Fed…as has been going on since the founding of the US and various forms of the Fed…under all parties and representation. Take a corrupt, secret and criminal activities like the US markets and try to technically predict them and you will understand a little of what Hemke does.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:46 AM

      Hemke is right, I explained all of those figures and numbers last weekend on here regarding the Cot Report…………..the only thing is, the market is fake and the rigging boys will not let anything that he said play out! Watch going forward paper gold will appear out of no where and no one will take any huge deliveries!

        Dec 12, 2015 12:17 AM

        He stated weeks (years) ago that the metals would recover and go higher based on biased assumptions and almost magical conjectures but it hasn’t happened. Quite the opposite in fact.

        Why would anyone expect gold and silver to act any differently then most other commodities at this point?
        Crying manipulation or unfairness all the time is for people who are adament about staying on the wrong side of a trade they are completely emotionally invested in.
        If the metals market, any market, is completely faked and rigged etc by tptb that have seemingly unlimited capital and influence then why would anyone want to trade in it and expect a different bullish result?
        That’s kind of like the Einstein insanity/repetitive attempts analogy.
        Everythings a cycle and right now the sentiment in metals is terrible. Does anyone really believe that huge, game changing hedge fund money is going to pour into the PM’s after those same hedgies just had their face ripped off the past few years?

        I don’t think so.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:26 AM

          “Why would anyone expect gold and silver to act any differently then most other commodities at this point?” — Mike
          ————-
          That’s exactly the question I have been pointing out here for the last several years, Mike. All to no avail. So it is pointless even bothering because NOBODY here cars to hear it.

          From the very first time I brought it up to the last time there has NEVER been a single response from the crowd on this site nor even the hosts. Just like you said nothing at all.

          No follow up on the shows. No discussion and no open commentary. They just refuse to acknowledge the obvious. Instead we are regaled with the same old bland nonsense from some of the worlds most popular bloggers who keep feeding us the same repetitive bull-song day in and day out.

          This is beyond just being supportive of the industry, many of who advertise here. It seems to me a deliberate refusal to just accept the most basic facts when they don’t fit the gold and mining agenda adopted for this show.

          Is it any wonder some of these guys lost their shirts fighting the tape?

            Dec 12, 2015 12:52 AM

            I disagree Bird. I have taken the opposite side. My total portfolio is nowhere near decimated by the way. Kathy and I are doing just fine!

            Dec 12, 2015 12:01 AM

            “That’s exactly the question I have been pointing out here for the last several years, Mike. All to no avail. So it is pointless even bothering because NOBODY here cars to hear it.”

            Bird, I care—-I’ve not said it directly but have indirectly through technicals I’ve been following and talking about. Consistently, I mentioned you should see the low in PMs and the commodities in 2016. And that goes back months. You say it one way and I come at it from an objective technical angle.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:15 AM

            Not referring to you Al. We already know you bought back when gold was selling in the double digits per ounce. My objection is that the show never picked up on this most basic of ideas though. And that is that gold has traded as a commodity for decades already. The charts prove it. So why should anyone have been surprised that gold fell along with the commodity sector and continues to fall to this very day? Almost three years ago I had predicted a bottom would not arrive until we had seen prices sub 1000 with a likely strike near 968. There were people here openly calling me an idiot back then but there is not so much laughing anymore and most of the obsessive bulls are now long gone. In December we came within 78 slim dollars of that call and we are on track to see it through in the coming months. So far, I have been the most accurate gold forecaster here. And when we eventually hit my number I am demanding a big fluffy feather for my cap!

            Dec 12, 2015 12:16 AM

            Sorry Doc. Some days I generalize my comments. I did not mean to leave you out.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:31 AM

            Bird,
            gold is up in other currencies as you know.I have little idea why greg henke is on…nice guy but maybe ker ran out of guests..there are others who will disagree w you that gold is another commodity.

            bb
            Dec 12, 2015 12:42 PM

            Not true Bird, I am very interested in your views and always have been, I always thought people rather silly not to see/understand what you were saying.

            But lets face it, goldbugs is like a religion, and simple facts don’t change a persons belief.

            I understand what you’ve said, but I still went 10% gold in my portfolio, I think a person should have gold, but then I like gold.

            Your “drop” calls have been great, hittin em outa the park, your goin up calls could use some tuning.
            Keep posting, probly more people appreciate than you realise.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:48 PM

            So Al, Did you get rid of all those acquired juniors from years ago (the roaring 10″s)? or did they just fall out of your portfolio dead? And what about all the buys or acquisitions from 2010-2013? where are they now?

            bb
            Dec 12, 2015 12:50 PM

            Just read your other post Bird, you are not the only one that has said gold could get to somewhere around $1000.
            After we topped of course, I didn’t see a top before it happened.

            I figure the question now is, “once we get to 900-1000, do we drop to $400 and stay there for decades?”
            Personally, as you should know, I don’t think so, I think Chinese buying increases driving the price up and beginning a new bull. But I could be wrong.
            We will know more a few weeks after we get there. lol

            Dec 12, 2015 12:54 PM

            Bird, you are correct, not that i look at the advertisers, but most have gone the way of the earlier promoters, who’s names we all know but never mention.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:11 PM

            I don’t know bb. Lately my belief system has been squashed and it has gotten much more difficult to make a decent market call. For example, the CRB broke right through a key support I was flagging. The Canadian dollar likewise fell below support. So did copper, natural gas and crude oil.

            None of those had the power to resist the very real bearish sentiment.

            In short, the guys who said we would deflate to preposterously low numbers are proving themselves to be correct and my basic hypothesis that we might bounce back into recovery mode based on a few key metrics in resources / currencies has been eviscerated.

            I don’t know what to add. So far I am only correct on gold but the way things are going we could go below my worst case scenario there too. Doc and Rick seem to have a much better handle on where the real bottom lies so I might just defer to them from now on.

            For the resource sector, I was simply not negative enough!

            bb
            Dec 12, 2015 12:36 PM

            Yes Bird, we are “crashing” deflateing.
            What is happening as far as I am concerned is we are changing world reserve currencies.
            Even if your old enough to have been around the last time it happened, it was between nations that were allies, “buds” if you will.
            This time, they actually call it war, “currency war”, there are going to be things happen from “left field” things wont make sense.
            imo, that’s whats happening.
            I know, tin foil hat.
            BUT, it will end, and the place that’s gonna grow will be east, Russia and China etc
            If you don’t think that railroad is gonna be huge, check what happened when the railways of n,america were built, Canada especially.
            Rogers, for one, has mentioned numerous times, “go east young man” and the old guys should look to eastern markets. imo

            Dec 12, 2015 12:55 PM

            East or South bb. People are still so quick to forget the Dark Continent.

            Here in Africa the demand is often more associated with shortages than expansion though. It is therefore booming for good reason because nothing much is in surplus except the numbers of people who still lead a rural life.

            I actually call these countries “shortage economies”.

            They import absolutely everything that is manufactured but because they are so short of dollars there is very little to choose from. You cannot get more than a modest selection of nails for example. Nobody even knows what a Robertson or Phillips screw looks like let alone why they are useful.

            All I can buy are old fashioned flat heads when they are available. Unbelievable but true.

            Demand is pent up from morning until night. Absolutely anything new, quality or different sells out in a day. The importers meanwhile have a lock on the market. They bring in the worst GD crap you can imagine at the lowest possible price.

            It’s almost all garbage, second hand, reject goods, defects, banned materials or surplus and liquidation junk. All cheap as dirt for them. Then they mark it up beyond the prices we would pay in developed countries and earn a killing on the spread while offering no alternatives to choose from.

            It is really a racket. The only thing that slows them down is when someone opens a local factory and prices in domestic currencies for a captive audience. So shortage economies boom and they have inflation rates to match.

            bb
            Dec 12, 2015 12:20 PM

            Yup, your right Bird, people forget Africa, but that is east where I live. lol
            Casey suggested Africa for young people years ago.

            Anyway, I have read articles saying this global warming stuff is actually about keeping Africa in the stone age, maybe its true.
            Why couldn’t product be brought in from China?
            Maybe that’s the plan once there is enough Chinese investment, which is huge and growing I hear.

            The opportunity must be beyond imagination, and consider that Bejing to Moscow railway, there is no way this world is gonna stop growing for some time, its just the west thats kinda “played out” for now.
            Heck, theres a lot of s.america to develop yet too.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:04 AM

          DPH If you were following his calls carefully these past months he has made some great timely calls up and down. (and many have made money ) I personally think your bashing is rather telling since you have made THOUSANDS of posts at TFMR? You are one day a major contributor on a site the next you run all around the net bashing someone? Get your lithium checked!

          Dec 12, 2015 12:36 PM

          Funny how people will pay others just to read that they agree with what they think. Human beings seem to need to be validated don’t they?

            Dec 13, 2015 13:13 AM

            Excellent Statement, Al.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:35 AM

            Did you see money change hands?

          Dec 13, 2015 13:16 AM

          Mike, how about If the manipulation is true and they don’t have unlimited physical resources to keep the gold down forever. What will you act accordingly? There are a lot of facts to support first assumption and the second is a fact. You simply cannot prove something does not exist just like you cannot prove ghost does not exist. It is hard to use TA since a single party does not satisfy mass physiology. The only way can be sure to profit is to buy low and sell high and never completely out of the market.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:11 PM

            The caution we have to take is to invest in PM itself since miners will be severely damaged or even go bust to the end. Once significant of them go under, supply will be too limited to suppress the price, so they have to let price go up. so you gain with metals and may go down with the miners. So we need to hold miners only for speculation, with the money we can afford to lose.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:22 AM

    Mr Lewis is a welcome addition.. except I can’t decipher his take on present Fed action…and its effect…they are raising next week ..not cutting… ?/!1#?

      Dec 12, 2015 12:10 AM

      Agatha; I believe he feels the Fed raises and then will eventually have to take back that raise and actually then move into negative interest rates—he doesn’t know how far forward before that will happen.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:48 AM

    COT data has been fraudulent for several years so why do they waste their time to analyze at?

    Dec 12, 2015 12:02 AM

    I felt Valentin’s session was very instructive. I also second Lance Lewis’s feelings about the conventional markets—-probably because it corresponds to what I believe based on current technicals. Note that I said current technicals.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:09 AM

    Silver found some support right where it was supposed to yesterday:
    http://schrts.co/LA7S1T
    (I annotated the chart a few weeks ago and haven’t touched it since, so there was no “fitting” of the lines of any kind.)

    Dec 12, 2015 12:47 AM

    Silver weekly:
    http://schrts.co/1NAXXQ

    Dec 12, 2015 12:56 AM

    Hey Mike.

    I guess the saying is true. He’ll hath no fury like a woman scorned.

    One question, when is your blog starting?

    I think you need to fix the following section.

    Welcome Aboard!
    DarkPurpleHaze found his blogging ‘voice’ at TFMetalsReport.com and continues onward in his journey to find the full range of that voice. Much appreciation and gratitude goes out to TF over at TFMR for providing that soapbox for myself and many other kind & thoughtful folks….

    You are a JOKE!

    Thanks for having Turd on. Great interview.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:15 AM
    Dec 12, 2015 12:20 AM

    Stocks are down 12% versus GDXJ since August but were up as much as 11 fold vs GDXJ since 2011. Conventional stocks are no bargain.
    http://schrts.co/r4r567

    Dec 12, 2015 12:20 AM

    A few mentions of gold being down because it is a commodity and suffering due to poor sentiment in that sector.

    Maybe it isn’t a commodity – when did you last see your central bank buy pork bellies or copper?

    Dec 12, 2015 12:37 AM

    Thanks for another informative weekende show.

    I find it fascinating that for AVI QE-programs/ moneyprinting or whatever You call it by central banks is not directed partly at the stock market. Since I would really like to understand this better, I have some statements for anyone who would like to comment. Please comment!!! 🙂 Thanks. It would be great to gain more insight.

    I will lay out some assumptions. My mind may be totally twisted.

    1.More credit available at lower interest rates means that people risk more. They may buy a house, may consume more or start a business. Although it is actually a bad idea to start a business on debt, I think. Some busines ideas sound so genious or just hit a nerve, like biotech, so that bigger financial players get on board. This finally culminates in an IPO. The stories get moving, get mainstream, people get hopeful and greedy.

    2. Easily accessible credit will always induce banks and hedgefunds to run up asset prices. It will always cause a bubble in some sector. Let us look at mining, the run-up in rare earths, precious metals mining, coal, let’s look at the oil sector. Let’s look at real estate, the battery sector and so on and so on.

    3. With the financial sector beleaguering and bribing the central banks the same sector can’t help but thinking…geeze let us pump something into stocks and pay the media, analysts and their grannies to tell people this and that sector or stock is hot, the stock market is going up, You are missing out if You don’t get in. Buy, buy, buy!!!

    4. Bullish players in the stock market get overconfident, knowing that central banks will keep rates low for long. Intuitive market observers get burned in short squeezes because they think: “This is nuts, this and that stock can’t possibly maintain its lofty valuation, margin debt in the stock market is at record levels and this has to unwind at some point, central banks can’t blow up their balance sheets forever, their will be overcapacities in each and every sector so product prices and earnings have to go down, and so on”.

    Is this all wrong? Honestly. I don’t get it. I am so trapped in this thinking. I only see it going all down down down and corruption and deception and conspiracies everywhere in the stock market but really want to open up my mind.

    So AVI does just focus on technicals? QE and/ or central bank money printing is not for the big financial players? But they are the biggest beneficiaries, aren’t they? Or is this all wrong?

      Dec 12, 2015 12:39 AM

      Sorry for my spelling mistakes here and there. I am not a native.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:05 AM

        Nic…
        Hang in there…being right is painful; doing the right thing is painful – but in the end it willl not only protect you – it will give you a “bigger shovel’ to dig in the dirt of life- whether you DIGGING A DITCH…..or weeding/caretaking a BEAUTIFUL GARDEN…..DO YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND MY ANALOGY….once paper is gone its gone…….however, last time I looked you cant burn gold and silver…

    Dec 12, 2015 12:50 AM

    Steve st Angelo aka Srsrocco is a very astute analyst..
    please have him on soon…

    Dec 12, 2015 12:52 AM

    ******* ANYONE THINKING LOGICALLY KNOWS THAT CRAIG HEMKE IS RIGHT! THE ONLY REASON HE WONT BE IS BECAUSE OF MASS CORRUPTION AND ALL OF YOU KNOW THAT! ********
    If you yourselves are not corrupt then you most know this! So why all the name calling! Don’t be a bunch of fools!

      Dec 12, 2015 12:53 AM

      Look what’s happening to the miners…………………………..they’re done!

        Dec 12, 2015 12:10 PM

        The companies that survive are going to be once in a lifetime buys though, Mark.

        Where some resource stocks are concerned the outcomes could be beyond stellar over the long run. But you will have to be careful which you choose because not only will they have to survive this current commodity bust but they will also have to get through an eventual stock market crash that will take everything down, however briefly.

        That crash is inevitable and under no circumstance can it be avoided if history is our guide.

        To give you an idea of what it was like for those who invested during 1932 I pulled up an old article that I recalled reading once. It stuck with me because the numbers were so mind boggling.

        For example, the star performer of the US Exchanges was a little known NYSE company called Electric Boat (General Dynamics to the rest of us) that built submarines and ships for the US Navy. It’s stock rose in value 55,000% between 1932 and 1954 over a period of 22 years.

        It was not alone though. A company called Crown Zellerbach returned an equally astonishing 21,000% during the same time period. Not bad for a basic raw materials producer of pulp and paper and lumber.

        The point here is that when we see stocks this brutally cheap that opportunity beckons as never before. Mining stocks and most of the resource sector do indeed qualify and we should always keep in the back of our minds that no matter how depressed resources look today that the world will add two billion more people in our lifetimes.

        Here is the link to the article I was mentioning. You have to read this one just to get yourself inspired. What the story notes is that even the average stock picker with no great insight whatsoever saw returns in excess of 1500% by buying the usual stocks on the S&P.

        The real money was made by those with foresight though. Right after this post I will link a list of the Dow Jones as it appeared in 1932. That’s just for an added reference and what you want to do is scan that list and note how history treated many of the great companies of that time (so picking the best does indeed matter a great deal).

        The Top 10 Great Depression Stocks — Motley Fool
        http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/06/12/the-top-10-depression-stocks.aspx

          Dec 12, 2015 12:18 PM

          Your best sentence of the month, BM !

            Dec 12, 2015 12:21 PM

            Thanks Brian!

        Dec 12, 2015 12:18 PM

        The DOW Jones stock basket as it looked in 1932. If you had a similar list today would YOU know which to buy and which to leave behind? That’s always the trick isn’t it? But here is a clue; it is companies that know how to evolve with the times and still prosper.

        It is companies that have actual profits and pay a dividend.

        Technology companies are great but when times get tough its the basics that still keep selling. Just look at cable as an example where millions are now cutting the cable. And that’s a very normal response to having less disposable income. But who the hell ever stops buying soda’s, food, toilet paper and shampoo?……NOBODY!

        Allied Chemical
        American Can
        American Smelting
        American Tobacco B
        Bethlehem Steel
        Borden
        Chrylser
        Coca-Cola Company
        Drug Incorporated
        Eastman Kodak Company
        General Electric Company
        General Foods
        General Motors Corporation
        Goodyear
        International Business Machines
        International Harvester
        International Nickel
        International Shoe
        Johns-Manville
        Loew’s
        Nash Motors
        Procter & Gamble Company
        Sears Roebuck & Company
        Standard Oil of California
        Standard Oil (NJ)
        Texas Company
        Union Carbide
        U.S. Steel
        Westinghouse Electric
        Woolworth

          Dec 12, 2015 12:23 PM

          Actually, an even better thought experiment is to marvel at how many of those DJIA listed companies from 1932 are still with us and are bigger than ever. That in itself is an insight for those trying to pick companies that will survive any downturn.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:56 AM

    Mark-are you a bot…???

      Dec 12, 2015 12:36 PM

      Is that what you are?

    Dec 12, 2015 12:59 AM

    Wow, I’ve never heard such confusion and misunderstood or misinformed opinion about the fed. It is amusing for sure. The SDR China segment totally off base. The SDR is used for global trade based on fair trade. The USDs current SDR value is .72. That’s the international value of trade. It’s not a derivative! The USDs special drawing rights a few years ago was 1.50. It’s been adjusted for trade. The reason for China to have the SDR value is because they will be a reserve currency. And contrary to popular belief, the dollar is no longer the only reserve currency. ( oil and the dollar are obviously DePegged )

    Doc and LPG were right on regarding oil regarding fundamentals and TA. BTW, there are tankers loaded with Iranian and Iraqi crude off the coast of Galveston TX right now!

    And Turd is correct about the crimex. Paper rigs the gold market, but not for much longer.

    The general confusion with investors lately means we are close to something really big. It’s always good to hear all sides to the story, even if it’s myth.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:50 AM

      the myth was those being miffed………lol ……….ccf

        Dec 12, 2015 12:25 PM

        Miffedcombobulated

      Dec 12, 2015 12:24 PM

      The general confusion with investors lately means we are close to something really big.

      Mr. Chartster:

      What do you think of this?

      http://usawatchdog.com/blow-off-event-will-change-financial-universe-forever-rob-kirby/

        Dec 12, 2015 12:56 PM

        Ebolan,
        That was a great article. Kirby is spot on! In fact, I’m going to read more of his stuff. He certainly has some great articles. The one about oil derivatives is spot on as well. The unwinding of the derivatives started the oil collapse and now it’s all about over supply. Kirby calling for the epic change in the financial structure of things is what I’ve been following for a while now. Most investors are going to get caught with their pants down. The day and time is approaching very Very soon!

        Good stuff, Man!

          Dec 12, 2015 12:06 PM

          usawatchdog…..has some very interesting fellows……..Kirby, is one

            Dec 12, 2015 12:26 PM

            Sure it does.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:25 PM

      Calling them derivatives was simply a fixture of speech

    Dec 12, 2015 12:59 AM

    Matthew & Bird…for yr perusal…
    In-Day Update On Some Gold Sector Inputs That Actually Matter
    By Gary Tanashian – December 11, 2015
    The word play in the title is in reference to the ridiculous fuss over COMEX gold inventory and other promotions masquerading as fundamentals put out by cartoons masquerading as analysis.
    Read More » on Gold Eagle

    Dec 12, 2015 12:33 AM

    Oil was being artificially supported by OPEC, and when the inevitable day of reckoning came prices fell disastrously. China also artificially maintained the price of many resources through hoarding and overproducing. This was more dangerous the longer it went on. When China began to contract the resource market followed suit. I can’t see how anyone can say we are simply in a down cycle for these products. This downturn will last until Asia needs our commodities again. They have the industry and the market we do not. The Western World is broke and China is too but at least they are a creditor nation. How long can it go on like this who knows but it could be for many more years and as this happens the bankruptcies in resource stocks will continue unabated. DT

      Dec 12, 2015 12:29 PM

      In some for sure Mr Tracy

    Dec 12, 2015 12:54 AM

    the best aspect of this show is the analysts disagree… on oil….Avi, Doc, Chris, Rick, Gary..
    Doc & Rick think oil going lower father out in 2016..I asked Doc recently if he has ever been wrong… never got an answer..

      Dec 12, 2015 12:04 PM

      Agatha; rarely. At least that’s what my wife tells me —-of course, I’m referring to technicals. Oil will move lower into January in fits and starts and then we’ll see at that point what it does. I have a feeling you may get a rally and then a double bottom later. However, I’ll be able to opine on the oil market about what will happen after January when late January arrives with its’ short term low. I hope this is very clear.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:00 PM

        thank you Doc. the comments at present are rather racist and divisive aren’t they..hate moslems and women & what /who else??/ the powers that be have succeeded.
        I do not find that you 4 agree that often… Gary — you..?????
        again, thank you

          Dec 12, 2015 12:27 PM

          Agatha, I don’t get much into the political, religious, and race/ethnic stuff. I have my own opinions but who would really care if I spouted about them. Big Al and Cory are trying to move this site to investments and stay away from that other stuff. Sometime I agree with some of the analysts and will say it. Other times I’ll say what I believe the technicals are revealing and I’ll say it strongly. Sometimes the technicals get neutral and I’m careful not to give a rigid opinion although I’ll say the odds are favoring one possibility or not. I’m not tooting my own horn when I say I’ve been pretty accurate especially in the last year. The reason is I’ve taken my indicators and added another technical methodology to them and the results are blowing me away. I hope it continues so I can keep the listeners in the best possible place as far as their own decision making—I live for that and try to be as objective as I can be. By the way, I appreciate your comments.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:42 PM

            …and I appreciate your attentiveness & sincerity Doc….i do not understand why you don’t have your own site..Al & Cory appear to have moved to a more political agenda,,, unfortunate imo.
            Agatha

          Dec 12, 2015 12:54 PM

          Sorry Agatha. No disrespect intended. My comment about women not admitting they are wrong was tongue in cheek. I am not the best comedian I suppose.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:32 PM

          Rick at from who of us?

            Dec 13, 2015 13:33 AM

            Is that the wine talking? 🙂

      Dec 12, 2015 12:31 PM

      AGATHA no one is perfect.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:14 PM

    Doc,
    Took me years to learn to always be wrong regarding women. It usually takes them 24 to 48 hours to figure out you were right. If by chance I’m right every great once in a while. Lol

      Dec 12, 2015 12:37 PM

      They say women have no balls Chartster. I am not so sure. Most I have known shoot from the hip and they aim for the heart. It is a very rare one that ever admits she was wrong (even though its a terminal affliction of some members of that species).

      You know that old expression “Kill ’em all and let God sort them out”?

      That was written by a woman. I am 100% positive about that.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:05 PM

        Bird,
        All I know is, soon as a man enters the argument, he lost!
        No matter if he’s right or not. I just figure out a way to retreat.
        Men aren’t equipped to win an argument against women. It’s like a high school team playing a pro team. You gonna loose, you don’t have the talent.
        The good news is, it’s a great excuse to pack up the golf clubs and deer rifle and vanish for a few days… Lol

          Dec 12, 2015 12:36 PM

          Great and true comment from the man with a wife of forty years and three daughters and a female dog.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:28 PM

    ******** MUSLIM IMAM FRIED FOR SAYING ON FOX NEWS THAT DONALD TRUMP IS RIGHT! ********
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBbNrd9Ef5A

      Dec 12, 2015 12:34 PM

      This proves how so many Muslims in this country are evil towards the U.S. and truly are jihadist!

    Dec 12, 2015 12:22 PM

    I was downtown the other day shopping. I walked into a Muslim book store. The clerk approached me ( I looked like I didn’t belong in there, I guess ) I asked him if they had the new Donald Trump book ” export illegal imigrents and ban Muslims “. He said F Off!, get out and stay out! I said, yes, that’s the book! do you have that in paperback?

      Dec 13, 2015 13:05 AM

      Lol

        Dec 13, 2015 13:39 AM

        Making me laugh Chartster!

    Dec 12, 2015 12:37 PM

    Mr. Big Al Korelin,

    I was shocked to hear that you are not yet home. I thought you went home months ago.

    How are you able to pull off all these broadcasts from a nursing home for crying out loud??? Plus all the other stuff you do like the newsletter?

    Did they give you an office there? They must have good Internet access. Did they let you go home for Thanksgiving? Will they let you go home for Christmas?

    If not, Frank from Moscow and I will break you outta there!

      Dec 12, 2015 12:40 PM

      I gotta admit I’ve been to a few nursing homes and found all of them god awful depressing. I’m afraid I’d put a bullet in my head before I’d go live in one for any length of time. Sorry, not trying to be a gloomy Gus.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:38 PM

      Come fully armed! Then, the good red wine is on me!

        Dec 12, 2015 12:38 PM

        I kind of agree!

    Dec 12, 2015 12:02 PM

    On December 12, 2015 at 9:26 am,
    Birdman:
    Bird. The mood and the posters here changed dramatically in the last year.
    I was not taken to well last Dec when I said the commodities cycle is OVER and If you listen to Sprott, Moriarty ect you would be destroyed buy listening to them. I said mid early 2015 oil was toast. Oil is heading for $35 then Maybe $27. Aberta is in collapse mode.
    I was buying the dollar a year ago and laghing at Moriartys collapse call.
    Yup the green back is going higher and gold is lucky to be holding its own.
    Regrets? I didnt exchange a 2 million loonies into dollars….just a few 100k.
    When was the US supose to collpase again Bob? I was trying to point out to readers that these guys we’re nothing to look up to and be very careful where you invest.
    Canada is in for serious rough sledding for a long time. USA is pretty decent shape. I was just there. A friend is buy 3mil in trucks in Alberta at a time and selling them in the US and making a killing on exchange alone.
    I said Bob and many others where absolutely cluless. Have a look back now.
    Im moving to South America l. Sick of stupid governments pumping terrorism fear and global warming crap waisting billions of my tax dollars. They dont give a shit down there and nobody cares.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:03 PM

    Sorry for typos ect. Iphone 4 and traviling on a bumpy bus.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:31 PM

      Bill, the only millionaires I ever knew who took a bus were on their way to jail! 🙂

        Dec 13, 2015 13:42 PM

        Good one Bird. LOL
        I’ve got friends in South America that take the Bus all the time. Their probably worth 5-6mil. Have you driven in Ecuador? Or worse the Philippines?

          Dec 13, 2015 13:00 PM

          No but I get you 100%…….I was just yanking your chain.

    Dec 12, 2015 12:35 PM

    Well, folks; next week is Fedspeak. I’ll be glad when it’s over. We then can get back to the usual movement of markets without any interference of news for awhile. We may get a few days of reactive mode but I believe it’ll then dissipate and the markets will then move back into their natural trends prior to the Fedspeak.

      Dec 12, 2015 12:14 PM

      Agreed.

        Dec 12, 2015 12:16 PM

        ….but either way “Hike or No Hike” this Fed meeting should be a significant milestone.

          Dec 12, 2015 12:41 PM

          Maybe

            Dec 12, 2015 12:11 PM

            What I mean is that it will be either the first time in years the Fed has hiked rates at all, or it will be the meeting where it finally hits the investment community that the Fed has lost credibility and they kick the can down the road.

            Either way, it will be a milestone, and will put into motion a change in sentiment.

            Dec 12, 2015 12:43 PM

            I can also say that it is either hawkish hold or dovish hike as peter schiff outlined. It means they will talk tough if they don’t hike and talk soft if they do. It is most likely there is no rate hike even every one expects one. Maybe it is why they are working so hard on gold and silver price. It might be making gold as low as possible before rate hold exert upward pressure on gold.

      Dec 13, 2015 13:26 AM

      I don’t know Doc. But I have a plan. I am going to get up early and watch the futures and the pre-market to gauge what the insiders are up to the day of the announcement. That’s a close to admitting I don’t know what the hell the coming week will bring.

      But you could be right. It might only amount to a flash in the pan and then back to the usual.

    Dec 13, 2015 13:10 AM

    Hi Al

    I’m confused by Avi Gilburts comments that the money creation at the Fed does not flow into the stock markets. As far as I know there are two clear mechanisms to accomplish this. The large banks have borrowed large amounts of money at near-zero interest rates and directly invested that money in the stock market instead of lending to mainstreet firms. Also, corporation have been using Fed money to buy back their stocks despite having record profits. There are probably other factors such as the plunge protection team but the two obvious ones have been well documented. Do you agree?

    Bob Grierson
    Switzerland

      Dec 13, 2015 13:00 AM

      So a rate hike approaches. Just three days to go.

      At least we “think” one is coming. But nobody seems to be sure exactly what will happen. Depending on who you read the dollar will spike higher or take a dive that day. Or maybe oil will bottom and rise with gold.

      There is uncertainty about the market direction and how that bodes for most commodities if a rate hike does indeed come and of course there are equal uncertainties about what will happen if the Fed does nothing at all.

      And what about stocks? Will they soar or crash? Maybe neither friends….maybe neither.

      So that’s potentially a lot of variables. Will your favourite currency take a face-plant or reward you with a few hundred pips jump ? Do you even know which way it will move in either of the two scenarios (which are hike versus no hike) since at the best of times most of us misread market behavior even when we KNOW what is coming..

      Maybe nothing at all will happen because it’s all priced it!

      That last one really makes me scratch my head because while the market is overwhelmingly sure Yellen will pull the trigger the chance still exists that she will stay her hand. Heck, we are all just guessing about the most basic aspect which is how much will that rate hike be.

      A quarter point? Ten basis points? Maybe a knuckle crunching 50?

      How can that possibly be priced in?

      So what do you do? Well that’s the reason I began writing this post in the first place because now is probably a very good time to start making a strategy for how to weather a market that turns against you or one that abruptly becomes rewarding.

      You don’t want to leave your Kahunas hanging on the balcony though (unless you have inside information) so both entry and exit scenarios need to be addressed now in the days prior to the event. There are a few basic ways to keep your sanity though.

      1) Stay in cash until you know what is happening.

      2) If you are currently in levered plays you might want to get those hedged. Especially if they are already in the red.

      3) Throw the dice and bet long in advance based on your gut, highly evolved intelligence, technicals and the usual overconfidence that ruins most people.

      4) Just wait for a clear signal. Keep some dry powder. Then get into the thick of it based on what the momentum guys are doing.

      5) Watch what the market does in the day and hours leading up to the announcement. There are always Fed leaks and the insiders will try to position ahead of time with stealth. For example, oil prices are falling hard but some stocks are soaring. Do you think that is really a weird coincidence?

      6) There is a lot more to say. Maybe the guys here have some smart investment strategies we should hear and follow. I know what I “think” will happen that fine day.

      But I really don’t know if I am going to be right!!!

        Dec 13, 2015 13:52 AM

        I am hoping that aliens will invade early in the week and that the impending wipe-out of Humanity will mean none of us will have to worry about the Fed.

        However, I would still tune in to hear what Gary, Doc, Chris and Rick think about the market in laser guns and whether underground bunkers are safe to invest in.

          Dec 13, 2015 13:07 AM

          You mean the Zombies Bob! We all know there are Zombies coming.

            Dec 13, 2015 13:19 AM

            I for one welcome our new zombie overlords.

            Hail the zombies!

    Dec 13, 2015 13:52 AM

    This is a very interesting article with the boss of the commodity company Vitol – one of the biggest movers of oil globally – in today’s UK Sunday Telegraph. His thoughts on the oil price in 2016 are below:

    .
    .
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    .
    .
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    ‘Trading is far from Vitol’s only activity. It also owns refineries, terminals, storage facilities, power stations, petrol stations (mention Shell), and oil and gas fields in West Africa, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere. “It is always about how profitable we are going to be,” Taylor says. “Scale means efficiency but it also means cheaper energy for everyone because we can do things in volume.”

    Taylor predicts that the oil price will stay depressed well into 2016 because of the glut that has built up as a result of Saudi Arabia’s decision to continue pumping oil in an effort to squeeze out competitors. Its a tactic that will result in some big casualties but also some winners, including Vitol, he believes.

    “Inside Opec the Saudis are the major player by a mile. They will drive out high-cost producers, including in the North Sea, so it’s not great for the UK. Well, it is for the man on the street and it means the market is likely to stay in contango, which is good for us,” he says.’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12047634/EXCLUSIVE-Inside-the-commodity-trader-Vitol-that-pulls-the-levers-of-the-global-economy.html

    Dec 13, 2015 13:18 AM

    From Zerohedge…… The “Coppock Guide” Signals A Bear Market
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-12/coppock-guide-signals-bear-market-hand

    Tim
    Dec 13, 2015 13:53 AM

    Does anyone know why Gary Savage hasn’t been on the show recently?

    Dec 13, 2015 13:07 AM

    Note to readers:

    Avoid the website Howestreet.com as it is attempting to load a virus on your computer.

    Dec 13, 2015 13:28 AM
    Dec 13, 2015 13:30 AM

    ******* ONCE AGAIN PETER SCHIFF BREAKS IT ALL DOWN WITH LOGIC *********
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e37hk5EL0GU

    Dec 13, 2015 13:35 AM

    ******* ANDY HOFFMAN EXPLIANS WHY WE ARE DOOMED! ********
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aT7i41Cb0NU
    And…………..there is nothing anyone can do to stop it!

    Dec 13, 2015 13:13 AM

    Brent Cooke is on tfmetals

      Dec 13, 2015 13:12 PM

      …..so.

    Dec 13, 2015 13:49 PM

    This Clive Maund chap has written a very bearish piece for, well, just about everything.

    http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3653&PHPSESSID=35c442ee96e59bcca736ac0774f3d871

      Dec 13, 2015 13:22 PM

      Thanks Bob UK. I generally like to look at Clive’s analysis and charts.

        Dec 13, 2015 13:34 PM

        I am hiding underneath my mattress after reading that.

          Dec 13, 2015 13:12 PM

          Ha! A few sectors have topped and few others are correcting to the downside but will pop soon. Nothing to be afraid of really.

          The rounded “dome” top on the general markets has been playing out for a while. The S&P Double bottom and then triangle pattern that broke support looks on track. His analysis on Dow Jones, transports, Oil, and other global stock markets was very interesting.

          The markets go in both directions, if a market is going down you can short it. If it is bottoming now, then it is a good time to look at new long positions. We are at least at an inflection point, where there are a lot of sectors poised to break out /or/ break down. This will keep things exciting over the next few weeks to close out the year.

          Just put on some soothing music and get hot tea and enjoy the show….

      Dec 13, 2015 13:45 PM

      Clive Maund is a good chartist. I tend to agree with most of what he says in his article. The oil/gas sector could be the start of something big. I currently have been thinking the very thoughts he put on paper. Corporate debt is sky high and once bankruptcies of some major commodity markets begin, Katy bar the door. It’s ironic that the FED may raise rates in the beginning of a massive down winding of leverage, debt and liquidity. It’s been stated that if the FED raises rates by 25 basis points, 800 billion in liquidity will be taken out of the markets. And we’ve been hearing how markets are already at risk due to illiquidity. So hang on to your hats.

        Dec 13, 2015 13:32 PM

        Doc, have you thought about the result if FED does not raise rate this time? what is the consequence?

        Dec 13, 2015 13:32 PM

        Yes, the timing of this Fed rate hike or non-hike is a little wacky. They would have been better off doing it a year ago. Now the conditions are more precarious.

        Dec 13, 2015 13:32 PM

        Again Doc…. we all appreciate yr attentiveness.

        😉

        Dec 13, 2015 13:18 PM

        If oil got down to 20s then I imagine several of the off-shore oil rig companies would go bust considering the debt that many – most – of them have.

        I thought it odd that RIG (Transocean) seemed to be resisting going to new lows last week – perhaps that is because it is the best of the others? Maybe it will now head south this week.

      Dec 13, 2015 13:23 PM

      Bob UK…thanks for posting the article..makes a lot of sense and should wake the sleeping..
      regards….

    Dec 13, 2015 13:04 PM

    If the Fed wants to reduce rates in response to the next shock, it will be back at zero very quickly and will have to turn to other measures to boost growth.
    Yup: such as QE4 and NIRP, which are inevitable, but which the Fed wants to “hike” rates first just so it has the alibi to unleash even more easing. And now even Hilsenrath is warning that this is the endgame:

    Fed officials worry a great deal about the risk. The small gap between zero and where officials see rates going “might increase the frequency of episodes in which policy makers would not be able to reduce the federal-funds rate enough to promote a strong economic recovery…in the aftermath of negative shocks,” they concluded at their October policy meeting, according to minutes of the meeting.

    In short, the age of unconventional monetary policy begun by the 2007-09 financial crisis might not be ending.
    Coming from Hilsenrath, it does not get any clearer than that.

    Average:

    Dec 13, 2015 13:19 PM

    Gold and Silver Daily Trading Patterns For November 2015

    Does anyone see a marked daily pattern in the precious metals for the month of November?

    What a surprise!

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2015/12/gold-and-silver-daily-trading-patterns.html

    Dec 13, 2015 13:15 PM

    Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton dropping in Oz with other miners. Nikkei was down 500 points last time I checked.

    Dec 13, 2015 13:18 PM

    So here we have the outcome for the CEO who just “Gated” his junk bond fund and earned the ire of an entire industry. He got canned and isn’t allowed back in the building.

    Obviously this guy does not know the script or if he did he just went renegade and blazed his own trail. The moron did not seem to understand how much damage would ensue by pushing the big button.

    So instead of preserving the value of the remaining holdings he has instead triggered an avalanche of selling in other funds and we all got to witness a mini melt down in the high yield markets last week.

    Maybe nobody told him that just because a thing can be done does not mean it should be done. Because everybody knows that when it comes to Gates we are either all in for the duration of the game or we are all gated together.

    Sheesh. You can’t have one guy pulling this gambit on his own. Spooks the markets.

    In Dramatic Twist, CEO Of “Gating” Third Avenue Is Fired, “Not Allowed Back In The Building”
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-13/dramatic-twist-ceo-gating-third-avenue-was-just-fired-isnt-allowed-back-building

    Dec 14, 2015 14:03 AM

    Well i pounded the table last year.
    The Loonie was toast. See mathews chart.
    The Dow and DIVs was the place to be. It has survived.
    Altjough the recovery over the years has been priced in..
    Like I said you need to own a trailer park or something as its going to be a shitty investment environment and it is!
    I was just in South America and 4 cucmbers were a 1 loonie. 4 in Canada it $10.00!!!!
    The loonie is used toilet paper.
    Just got back from the US and seems pretty solid too me.
    Bob M. You either lost you brains or integrity but I bet both. You been pumping fear along with others for so long its hilarious. Just like your calls last Dec.
    where do we go from here?? Its now a tougher call but who cares!? Enjoy life its short.
    PS there is no super cycle in resourses as I said a year ago. Just be happy you weren’t working in the oil patch Alberta.

    Dec 14, 2015 14:56 AM

    And a friendly reminder (from over a year ago) DO NOT listen to gold bugs…Any of them. Trust your self and GOOD research only!.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PLG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p53066117449&listNum=1&a=420907867

    Dec 15, 2015 15:41 PM

    Doc and LPG inSegment 4 gave an example of what makes your show so great, Al. Instead of interviewing someone cold, like in most other shows or with carefully scripted and blinkered/restrictive questions, you have two very bright guys who have discussed the issues in private between themselves and then they come on the show to give us the benefit of all their thoughts and conclusions. Absolutely brilliant.

      Dec 15, 2015 15:46 PM

      Further to LPG’s comment about the oil price in early 2003 at the eve of the Iraq war, I recall that gold made a nice move up to about $385 just before the war started and then immediately topped, perhaps to the very day the war started. So I will check …
      Wikipedia says Gulf War #2 began 19 March 2003 and the London Fix on Kitco topped on 5 February at $385.00. See how my memory deceived me – gold topped six weeks before the war started!