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The Fed and Gold in 2016

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December 19, 2015

Hour 1: 

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Hour 2: 

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Hour 1:

Hour 2:
  • Segment 5-6: Adrian Day, Founder of Adrian Day Asset Management, joins us with his takeaway from the Fed raising rates, the slowdown in Asia and the impact on precious metals.
  • Segment 7: RBC Capital Markets Precious Metals Strategist George Gero provides his outlook for gold into 2016.
  • Segment 8: Byron King, Editor of Outstanding Investments, joins us to chat about oil and the US equity markets.

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Discussion
219 Comments
      Dec 19, 2015 19:06 AM

      QUESTION: Marty, at the Berlin cocktail party you said we may yet see gold sales from oil producing countries if oil breaks your yearly number of $35 for year end and gold closes below 1044 or so I think. You said gold could then reach that $——- level you mentioned in the conference. It looks like that is happening. Socrates on the monthly level is now warning of a possible Waterfall Event in gold. Are we seeing the risk of official gold sales from Russia, Norway and Saudi Arabia?

      Thanks for a spectacular conference.

      PD

      ANSWER: Yes. We got the rate hike. A stronger dollar is still on the agenda, and yes, I warned we could get that waterfall in commodities for the first quarter, particularly in oil. The continuing collapse of oil prices under $35 for year-end will bring tremendous distress to several countries. Cash-strapped governments are looking at substantially lower revenue from oil and they are likely to liquidate positions in gold and in their sovereign wealth funds. They will draw down cash from gold and a portion of their funds to close budget gaps.

      Gold produces zero income and costs money to store while the yields on wealth funds currently produce way too little to compensate for the deficits. This crisis, in turn, could cause several nations to liquidate portions of their funds to sell off gold to raise cash. It would appear that the selling will be in debt markets more so than stocks. They will focus on declining asset values like gold and bonds more so than U.S. equities. When they get into a real jam, it becomes whatever they can sell to raise cash irrespective of the fundamentals.

      This entry was posted in Future Forecasts, Gold, Q&A and tagged Commodities, Gold, Oil by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.

      http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40593

        Dec 19, 2015 19:46 AM

        MA is a very clever shill. I’ll give him that..

          Dec 19, 2015 19:58 AM

          who is he shilling for?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:21 AM

            dunno, but he has many confused..

            Dec 19, 2015 19:07 PM

            I’ve found Armstrong is so vague I have no idea what his trading calls are. The arrays have so many conflicting signals that they can be interpreted in just about any direction.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:20 PM

            wow Gary, I have never seen anyone more specific than Socrates.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:21 PM

            But then again gary, I have only been into pm for 50+ years.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:26 AM

          The very notion that it costs central banks and counties to store gold is an utter, Joke!

            Dec 19, 2015 19:26 AM

            Countries*

            Dec 19, 2015 19:42 AM

            Interesting, Matthew.
            I think metals and oil have decoupled from the rest of the commodity sector. It looks like most of the commodities have bottomed.
            Copper is really interesting. It bottomed and is slowly going sideways up for the last month. And in the last month COPX global copper miners has gone down the whole time. It looks like it might have bottomed, but can’t tell.

            I wonder if the gold miners are going to do what copper miners did. Keep going down after metals bottom? Hmmm

          Dec 19, 2015 19:04 AM

          He’s a slippery shill. He criticizes the banksters on some issues but defends the hell out them when it comes to the bigger ones. (“Those who argue against the central banks are arguing FOR Marxism.” —for just one absurd example)

            Dec 19, 2015 19:13 AM

            Btw, a waterfall from commodities would provide the spike in gold:crb that I mentioned yesterday. I doubt that gold will join in the plunge but it could easily manage to make a new low.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:24 AM

            I have my doubts about commodities going into a waterfall versus the dollar from here. The S&P GSCI Commodity Index is at a 7 year low and briefly took out the 2008 crash low the other day. It is oversold on the weekly and monthly charts:
            http://schrts.co/hTu0Fo

            Dec 19, 2015 19:25 AM
            Dec 19, 2015 19:34 PM

            Anyone criticizing Martin Armstrong either hasn’t read much of his stuff or cherry picks what they want to or simply are not willing to take a step back and look at things from an unbiased perspective and be open to considering info that goes against what the majority believe.
            Ive never posted here before, but I check in fairly frequently. I could not let this slide.
            Martin Armstrong and his Socrates computer go far beyond what anyone else in the world is capable of.
            Pick a subject. Any subject. Economics, history, politics. Ancient Rome, Syria today, Asian stock markets, thermodynamics, currencies throughout history…whatever. He has a deep understanding of it all and he answers questions posed by anyone and everyone from an experienced and basically unbiased perspective.
            Too often, people bring in their conservative or liberal bias (or their Democrat or Republican bias) when they debate.
            Armstrong points out the problems with all of them.
            When people ask him about gold, he answers them with information from his computer programs. And he’s right virtually every time. He adds personal comments about gold promoters because of the never ending attacks he gets from them.
            I became somewhat of a goldbug 6 or 7 years ago and found Armstrong’s commentary hard to take. Especially when he and a small number of others (including Bob Moriarty) called the top in 2011. But within a few months I realized he was right.
            I sold the majority of my gold stocks a few months after gold peaked because I started to realize that this guy (Armstrong) really knew his stuff. (Im very glad I was willing to change my perspective and give up my cherished gold stocks when I did).
            Look at the track record. Its not a fair fight. The goldbugs have been wrong for 4 years now and Armstrong has been right. And his track record strongly suggests he’ll be right again about gold and many other things.
            Regarding central banks: you need to go back and read more and open your eyes (and your mind). Armstrong explains the need for central banks. He doesn’t defend their actions.
            He’s not on anybody’s payroll. He shares the info his computer generates. Ive read his blog everyday for years. At zero cost. Over the past 5 years or so, Ive learned more from Martin Armstrong about virtually every subject you can think of than I did in all my previous adult decades (Im in my 50s).
            To those criticizing him: try to open your mind and spend some serious time reading his stuff. It will be time well spent.
            Al: Ive enjoyed your show for years and I would like to offer you the same advice. Take some time and read a bit of Martin Armstrong’s stuff. You will not be disappointed. And if you are able to throw out your own personal biases (hey…we all have them), you may find yourself blown away by what you can learn from this man.
            …all the best to all of you…

          Dec 19, 2015 19:39 AM

          I am not really convinced that he is a shill. He seems to bee a very successful letter writer.
          Admittedly though I don’t read his material. Glen speaks highly of him.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:15 AM

            I will say this about MA, he is a master marketeer. Seems like most of the questions/comments he posts are praising him for his ‘genius’.

            Al, why do you think he won’t come on KE Report?

        Dec 19, 2015 19:37 PM

        A good interview with supply and demand outlined for oil.

        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-30/why-oil-prices-may-be-near-a-bottom

          Dec 19, 2015 19:29 PM

          I will keep loading up on oil stocks

    CFS
    Dec 19, 2015 19:31 AM

    The latest news on copper I have heard is that copper imports to China are currently decreasing, so it would appear that stock-piling is ending.

    CFS
    Dec 19, 2015 19:36 AM

    Off Topic:
    Why is Obama still talking about 10,000 Syrian refugees, when the State Department reported that he has already imported over 100,000 muslims in his second term ALREADY?
    Did you know the omnibus expenditure bill about to be passed allows for an extra 170,000 green cards specifically to be allocated to muslim refugees?
    Did you know the bill also allocates $1.6 Billion in re-settlement expenses for them?

      Dec 19, 2015 19:42 AM

      I am very confused on this issue. I do believe that it is very dangerous. They are not taking the actions that would make me comfortable.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:02 PM

        it has crossed yr mind Al that they have chosen not to…(part of the plan to wreak havoc)
        false flag and all…and war..

    Dec 19, 2015 19:46 AM

    Hello there. Thanks for this great weekend show. DOC, thank You very much for Your explanations on the VIX. I already sold my VIX related short option 2 or 3 days ago when You mentioned You thought those markets would stay volatile with the technicals You were watching. I sold out with a small gain and could buy it back now.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:47 AM

      That is great!!! Thanks!!!

    Dec 19, 2015 19:51 AM

    Hi there. I got no answere on this one before but would really like to kick of a discussion. It is a bit of a different take. You guys and I, too, would suspect US-Markets to go down with slowly increasing rates.

    However, it is important to consider the other side. Gary made an interesting point some months ago.

    and…

    I read this article on Seeking Alpha.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3704216-what-does-history-say-about-the-first-rate-hike-and-stocks

    The author states that most of the times after a first rate hike there followed a period of indecision which was then followed by decent gains in the stock markets…with the notable exception of the hike before the market top of 1999/2000.

    So Chris states that he thinks the FED has taken this stand of gradually hiking the rates in order to cool bubble-brewing in the markets. Gary on the other hand stated earlier that he, after the rate hike, suspects moneyflows out of bonds and into stocks and commodities and also concludes that we will rather see another bubble phase in the stock market.

    So ,what is more likely? How unique is this first rate hike really? How are the conditions prior to this rate hike different from the conditions before the other first rate hikes in the past? There are people who commented on this article and stated that they think this time is more similar to the crash of 1999/2000 because the hike followed a run-up in equities and I guess huge marginal debt in the NYSE.

    Thanks.

      CFS
      Dec 19, 2015 19:35 AM

      The dot plot indicates 4 quarter point rate hikes next year!

        Dec 19, 2015 19:34 AM

        Thanks CFS, but this does mean what?

        Dec 19, 2015 19:25 AM

        And that is what Lacker seemingly promised yesterday. The market is not prepared for that many IMO.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:43 AM

          Thanks for the comment. I just checked this info. 🙂

      Dec 19, 2015 19:43 AM

      Kind of anybody’s guess at this point Nic

    Dec 19, 2015 19:08 AM

    @excelsior and everybody who is interested!!!

    Here I got a post on the topic on climate change global warming hysteria related investments. I have a neutral position on this topic. I think that TESLA is a great car and hope we will build renewable energy plants all over the planet. However, I would right now rather short the stocks or am short already.

    Well…I came to those thoughts after reading this article on oil, the most interesting part being the last third. It is about overcapacities and irrational human behaviour. Just take the last part of it and substitute oil and refiners with solar panels, batteries and the electric car revolution.

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/12/oil-its-the-1860s-all-over-again/

    So my question is, at what stage do You think are we in those markets in renewable energy right now?

    Also, there is a really interesting chart of oil prices that shows that oil prices did not always follow up on disastreous news. So, I suspect, that with the positive sentiment coming from the recent climate change summit maybe those renewable energy markets will now, after the first strong positive reaction, stall out. At least You should hedge Your investments in some form. The curious thing is that I was not able to find short options by any bank that are related to solar companies. I am pretty wary because of that. After all their options are first and foremost designed to make them money by sucking up our money. They are only offering long options. I am sure You get it.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:41 AM

      Reading the article, I thought to myself: “How could anyone ever assume the energy markets where kind of tight with oil-companies burning natural gas because they didn’t know where to put it nor to sell it?” Looking back I am also asking myself that in the light of those developments back then how could people hail the resource-super-cycle for so long when it was actually dying. Did all those experts like Byron King, Rick Rule, Eric Sprott, Mickey Fulp, Marin Katusa, Frank Holmes, Eric Nuttal, Doug Casey and so on and so on not see this coming even remotely? I am not blaming anyone here, although I lost my hard-earned money listening to all of them a hundred times. I just want to give this comparison because I am seeing something similar in the renewable energy sector right now. I am looking for the lethal flaw in the thesis. 🙂 Anyone else?

        Dec 19, 2015 19:03 AM

        Morning Nic

        I am involved with a renewable type private company right now. The more I learn, the more optimistic I become.

        More on my venture later.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:59 AM

          like snipp….

            Dec 19, 2015 19:24 AM

            We have done very well in Snipp.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:23 PM

        Hey Nic, Just saw your comments and wanted to respond. I’ll be upfront that I don’t follow Tesla automotive (although I’m a huge fan of the inventions and patents of Nikola Tesla : – )

        As for the energy markets, it is obviously a very big topic and sector to cover. Oil and Coal are the clear leaders still, and I remarked and posted articles about how the coal marketplace is starting to slide backwards, and there is fierce environmental and political pressure on Coal (whether people agree philosophically or not).

        Oil is huge, along with Nat Gas, its a mess, and I’ve been mostly bearish since it was in the $80s, mentioned I could see it slide before many talking heads in main stream media would acknowledge that, and shorted it on some of the moves down. I have tracked Oil pretty closely over the last few years and have gone long on counter trend rallies using these Oil-related ETFs: UWTI, XLE, OIH, and XOP. When I wanted to short Oil, I just typically used the DWTI. The biggest mistake I have made in the last few months was selling out of my DWTI position and not hanging on.

        My best guess a few weeks back when oil was in the $42 range was that it would get down and bottom near $35-$38 longer term support. As of Friday it was just slightly below that closing at $34.55, so it did breach $35 but not by very much. If it rallies from here into year end, then that very well could have been a short to mid term low, where we get a nice bounce, and possibly head down for one lower low like Doc & Rick have mentioned. The selling pressure in Oil is starting to get exhausted though, and I would not be surprised to see it break up above $38 again and head back to test $42. I am also curious to see if DWTI will double top near the recent peak of $231.90 from Aug 24, 2015; and then fall back down. If that is the case then I’ll be going long UWTI again.

        Lastly, in Oil I am looking a number of companies presently to build my top dozen oil-related plays (producers, oil services, pipeline, storage, etc…). Here are some of the companies I am currently evaluating if you or anyone has any thoughts:

        Advantage Oil & Gas, PrairieSky Royalty, Raging River, Whitecap Resources, Peyto Exp & Dev, Bonterra Energy, Crescent Point, Delphi Energy, Gibson Energy, Enbridge, Precision Drilling, Torc Oil, Trican, Encana, Conch Resources, Pinoneer Natural Resources, Bolder Energy, Energy Transfer Partners, Marquee, Pioneer Energy, Husky Energy, Athabasca Oil, Renegade Petro, Cequence Energy, Imperial Oil, Divergent Energy, and Cameron (who is currently acquiring Schlumberg ….another company I was watching). I think we are about to see a pickup in Mergers as well as bankruptcies. Here’s the latest….

        Cameron stockholders approve Schlumberger acquisition
        Dec 17, 2015,

        http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/12/17/cameron-stockholders-approve-schlumberger.html?ana=yahoo

          Dec 19, 2015 19:39 PM

          As for Nuclear, it represents about 20% of the power makeup in the US, 15% in Canada, 24% of Europe, 17% of Russia, and now the emerging world (China, S. Asia, India, parts of the Middle East, and N. Africa) has it’s eyes on nuclear for about the same ~ 20% target for it’s energy energy needs. China alone has plans to have about 110 reactors in the next 15 years, and it has a big desire to limit and phase down Coal because people can’t breathe, and certain days can’t see, due to all their smog (much of it the result of coal plants). They get it, and they’re acting accordingly, and Nuclear remains a sector I feel will outperform in a major way.

          I’ve been watching Ur-Energy (URG) and Energy Fuels (UUUU) as 2 bench mark stocks that I own, and then cross-checking them against Cameco (CCJ) and the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) for some kind of confirmation. There are other companies I like as well such as, Uranium Energy Corp, Denison, Fission (separately now since their merger didn’t work out), Uranium Resources, and I’ve been doing some trades again with Paladin, because it may still pull out of this. Then there are about another dozen or so companies I like in the explorer side, but the world doesn’t need more uranium projects, it just needs higher prices to put the ones already built or permitted or on standby back into production.

          We have definitely started a bounce from earlier this week and I like the follow through so far, (even post-Fed announcement). Whether it is the big bottom is unknown, but I have much more of my Uranium positions in place than in the PMs at present. I’ve been adding to Uranium producers positions regularly with profits in other sectors, and have been averaging down cost basis during the bigger pullbacks. Then I trimmed the positions back into the strength as they rallied, and lowered the cost basis. I feel very comfortable with where the Uranium producers are at present and continue to feel they’ll be one of the biggest returns in my portfolio over the next 2-4 years.

          As for the Green or Clean energy components of Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro-Electric, Tidal, Methane Extraction, and Energy Storage (Battery Backup). It isn’t a theory or a tall tale. It is a competing and developing form of energy, that will and is part of the energy mix. At this point it is a very small component (2-4% in most parts of the world), but on a percentage basis, it also has the most room for growth. It is no different that the percentage basis increase that the smaller JR mining companies will experience, over the debt burdened Majors in a recovering metal price environment. These renewable energy components are getting better all the time, and all the global initiatives are moving in favor of these power inputs. It isn’t a theory, it already has started, and is happening. (with or without your personal consent).

          Not all companies will make it, some companies are hype and will get crushed, but there definitely are legitimate Solar, Wind, Lithium, Batteries, Hydrogen Cell, and other Green Energy companies that exist, that have revenues, decent balance sheets, growth projections, an energy product that countries around the world need and want. I for one plan on investing with the trend

          I previously posted a bunch of companies to follow on Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro-electric, Tidal, and Battery power (hydrogen cell, and Lithium/Graphite)on the Chris Temple blog:

          http://www.kereport.com/2015/12/03/lets-not-be-calling-for-trend-changes-on-todays-moves/

            Dec 19, 2015 19:46 PM

            BTW – the with or without personal consent line was aimed directly at you Nic, it was more with or without anyone’s personal consent these other Energy Inputs are being developed and the quality projects are moving forward and some are proving viable. So for me it is not a question of if, but when. I’d rater be early to the party, and am continuing to work to identify the handful of companies in each area (Nuclear, Lithium, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, alternate fuel cell, Energy Efficiency) that have good balance sheets, good management, good business models, and are producing revenues…..Just like the mining companies or oil companies I find attractive.

            Good luck to everyone in their investing moving into the holiday season.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:49 PM

            Sorry I messed that up that last post too……that line was NOT aimed at you Nic. 🙂

            Good grief, I need to slow down when I post and read it before I hit submit.

            For the record Nic, I really ENJOY our discussions on energy, on Rare Earths, on Coal, or Oil, or Gas, or Mining stocks. I just wanted you to know I appreciate your insights and love the discussion of all aspects of the Energy sector…..and there is more to it than just Oil.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:59 PM

            Nic – also I wanted to respond to one last idea you brought up about the alternative energy companies stalling out due to Oil have such low pricing, and they they may have potentially peaked out, or have fatal flaws. I believe in the short term you are likely correct, but again, there are still quality companies growing despite this energy environment, and there are always good value plays, good stories, and good companies to invest in any sector.

            Having made the case for the value in many forms of energy and a diversified energy mix, I currently only have money allocated in Nuclear, Lithium, and Energy Efficiency companies. I will likely deploy some funds into the Solar, Wind, Battery storage, hydrogen fuel cells, Geothermal, Tidal, and energy collection companies in 2016.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:35 PM

            Hi there, Excelsior. Thanks. Of course, I also enjoy those discussions. Where else would You learn so much as we do on the blog. And don’t worry too much about misformulating some lines. My poetry classes and courses on semantics taught me that it is impossible to express 100 % exact what You want to express with just written words. Also, I would always just prefer someone hitting me between the eyes so that I learn instead of patting on my shoulder and I don’t learn anything. For me every day without learning is a lost day and too much pause does not only mean slow down but rather a step back.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:06 AM

            Nic. Very well said and that is a positive attitude to have. Yes, this is a great place to come for a true exchange of ideas. Thanks for bringing up interesting topics, asking the tough questions, and for your contributions. If you have any energy companies that you want to dissect or analyze let’s do it. My goal is to whittle down the riff-raff and find the quality names that will make us money in the short to medium term, or that may be buy and hold stories with a longer time horizon.

            Cheers mate!

      Dec 19, 2015 19:27 AM

      Nic, thanks for the post………..renewable energy , Until one understands the complete picture on oil….renewables will mostly be speculation. Not that renewables are a wild shot, but, politically until one understands the politic of OIL, …all renewables are a bet, that the politicians will come to their senses on the US Oil relationship. Oil is much like gold, in that a more powerful agenda exist than most want to understand or admit.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:03 AM

        Thanks Frank.

        Well, my perspective is more like short to mid-term because I would like to make money on it. I was thinking today that maybe the development of renewables and even more the stock prices will be killed due to the same reason the fossil fuel industry was killed. Obviously planet earth uses less energy right now than projected and also we irrational humans become more energy efficient or generally just use less. On the other side of the equation over the next years there are coming online lots and lots of nuclear power plants and…well…everyone pushes the green agenda, so there will be lots more hydro and tidal plants and…yes, I have to admit…also lots of new solar and wind parks and so on. Now the question is…after years of cheap money and overinvestment in every corner of the economy…do we actually need new plants for batteries or solar panels or will prices rather slide and kill the stocks that are flying high right now?

          Dec 19, 2015 19:32 AM

          The answer to your question…..”maybe the development of renewables and even the stock price will be kill…”….. Check out what happened in 1976-1982 with the creation of the DOE(dept of energy) and the elimination of the FmHA . FmHA, was helpful for a few years for renewable energy…..then bang…DOE, eliminated it by participation from only a few BIG BOYS by the help of politicians.
          After reading your provide article “1890”……at this moment OPEC .. is the wild card.
          This is a rerun of the 1970’s, when OPEC was running the show, and the USA was trying to be energy independent. SAME GAME .

            Dec 19, 2015 19:32 AM

            So then we will be stuck with oversupply of energy for some time. So if electricity prices won’t rise due to oversupply it’ll be hard for solar parks to become cashflow-positive, right? Well, theoretically. Industry and ordinary people also need incentives to choose to install solar panels. Where would the incentives lie with cheaper or at least not more expensive energy?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:49 AM

            Over supply……from OPEC…….can change overnite.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:50 AM

            You have to go one more step………MIC.military industrial complex.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:10 AM

            Do however not forget the growing interest in eliminating global warming and the reference of Porche and BMW into this arena.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:25 AM

            Thanks, Big Al.

            This is certainly true. I don’t wanna try to push any agenda and I like nature very much. Looking at the continuing boom and bust cycles in the industry in the past I am just asking myself and everybody else where we are right now in the business and in the stock market cycle in this specific sector and where will we be in 12 to 18 months.?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:39 PM

            Global warming ……now that is another topic, which has not been proven as of yet.
            As far as the auto entering to any the space and changing things, is just like the
            1970, when GM, tried to covert the Cadillac to diesel….called a side distraction.
            Considering that FORD, had and produced an engine in Brazil, that ran off renewable energy source, in 1975, and was proven to work, never fully caught on in the USA.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:42 PM

            A token blend of 10% ethanol with gas……….did not hurt the OIL companies on bit, since they got the tax write off.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:45 PM

            Thanks Frank!!!

            Dec 19, 2015 19:49 PM

            BOTTOM line on renewables………..BIG OIL is in command……..and will stay in command, just like it has been for over 100 years……..jmho

            Dec 21, 2015 21:39 AM

            NIC……..there is a great commentary by a retired Major General in the BUSH administration….”American Ship is Sinking”.
            Go to approximately 20:20 on the tape at zerohedge, and you will see another reason while Oil, not renewables will still be the investment of choice.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:56 AM

          Short term to mid-term………OPEC is in control like the article said, and OPEC will continue to glut the market, because they need the cash.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:31 AM

            If this will hurt the American oil industry really bad, this would mean diminishing taxes and defaulting banks. So maybe, this would be making subsidies for the renewable energy sector an impossibility. Together with the fact that we may have overcapacities in solar cell and panel production and so on and maybe overcapacities in other renewable energy sectors this would be a double hammer for the sector.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:53 AM

            Who are the big OIL COMPANIES , and where are they located.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:26 AM

            The biggest companies are in the US, the UK and RUSSIA, I think. I will check this. What are You hinting at, Frank?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:34 AM

            The biggest companies are from China, then Britain and the US and Saudi Arabia and France and Kuwait and then, a bit far more off than I thought, Russia.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_oil_and_gas_companies_by_revenue

            Dec 19, 2015 19:19 PM

            Now, who owns the large companies….?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:42 PM

            That is a tough one. I got no idea. I have to check all the management teams and boards but I kind of think You are pointing to something different?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:25 PM

            Nic….just look at the top 5…..Shell, Royal Dutch, BP….see who use to own these

            Dec 19, 2015 19:19 PM

            Very good discussion Frank & Nic. Good questions, and good wiki list of the top oil companies.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:32 PM

            buy good dividend paying oil stocks. They will pay you handsomely.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:08 AM

      I also welcome anyone who has some arguments to kill my thesis of overcapacities in the short- to mid-term and overextended stock prices. Give it a shot or two or three.

      I mean it.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:51 PM

        I think you are on track. In the short term there is a global energy glut and it is putting the breaks on development in many projects. However, as mentioned above, Nuclear development continues to grow, as does some of the alternative energy sources because of initiatives to stave off carbon emissions and because the projects take years or decades to develop, finance, build and get into production. Some of the companies in each area of the Energy sector still have room for the stock prices to appreciate even in this oversupply environment. It won’t last forever, and countries around the world realize that.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:53 PM

          that’s putting the “brakes” not “breaks”s on many new projects. Some of the companies that were marketing fluff instead of a viable company will break though.

          I just see opportunities out there for a few winners though and plan to invest accordingly.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:33 AM

      Great article btw…………ccf

    Dec 19, 2015 19:59 AM

    Thanks for the show guys……much appreciated

    Dec 19, 2015 19:56 AM

    Very good show! I listened to segment 2,7 and 8 twice.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:41 AM

      agree on 7 and 8

        Dec 19, 2015 19:04 AM

        This is off topic but we should take note of the Canadian dollar. Months ago I raised the possibility of the Canadian dollar heading down to about $.61. It’s currently at $.717 and technically starting another leg down. It’s also another proxy along with others for the behavior of the commodities. It’s signalling that commodities will fall well into 2016. When the Canadian dollar bottoms it would not be a bad idea to swap some American fiat currency for some Canadian fiat currency. Some might be a little distressed to know we’ll continue to fall in commodity prices but we have to remember that it raises the banner of OPPORTUNITY.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:08 AM

        seg 2 …..I wish Chris would have been able to talk a little longer

          Dec 19, 2015 19:17 AM

          Agree on 2,7,& 8. And wish Gero,Postma & Temple would’ve been allowed longer times to talk…Gero says inflation the others ambivalent.Maybe Gero will comment here.Having Gary, doc & Temple commenting is v helpful. Why not get Adam Hamilton on.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:59 AM

    This is off topic but I would like to draw attention to the Canadian dollar which I mentioned months ago would probably reach $.61. It’s currently about $.717 and starting another technical leg down. The importance is that it’s another proxy along with others that are signalling we have further down in most of the commodities. This may be stressful for some to hear but it ultimately spells OPPORTUNITY. When the Canadian dollar bottoms it will be a great opportunity to swap some American fiat currency for some Canadian fiat currency. It’ll also tell us the commodity carnage is over. Both the Canadian dollar and commodities should bottom in 2016

    Dec 19, 2015 19:08 AM

    It’s nice to find out that Adam Hamilton agrees with what I said here many weeks ago…

    “This week’s rate hike may only have been 25bp, but its impact will be vast beyond its deceivingly-trivial headline size. Technically the Fed’s ZIRP experiment wasn’t quite zero, as the Bernanke Fed all those years ago established a federal-funds-rate target range from 0.00% to 0.25%. The actual average FFR in those 7 years since was 13 basis points, not quite zero. This helps frame the enormity of this week’s hike.

    Wednesday, the Yellen Fed established a new FFR target range of 0.25% to 0.50%. So even at the low end of 25bp, this essentially doubles the overnight interest rate of the past 7 years! And if the Fed again forces the FFR to the midpoint of its new target range, it would nearly triple to 38bp. A doubling or even tripling of short-term rates is an astounding hike, especially after they’ve had so long to become entrenched.”

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton121815.html

      Dec 19, 2015 19:45 AM

      GREAT ARTICLE …………CCF……

        Dec 19, 2015 19:56 AM

        this so far qualifies for the best article of the weekend…………..jmho

      Dec 19, 2015 19:45 AM

      From article:

      “Provocatively the Fed may never be able to fully normalize though. One of ZIRP’s worst misallocations of capital occurred at the US government, where record-low rates encouraged exploding borrowing by the Obama Administration. The resulting record federal-debt levels mean interest payments at historical normal rates would literally bankrupt the US government! The Fed’s US debt bomb makes normalization impossible.”

      My comment:
      Unless there is high inflation – that is the only way the US could pay debts on 3.5%.
      Thus, the rate hikes are a positive for the gold price (after the impending bottom this year.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:27 AM

        Can’t disagree Brian.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:07 PM

        Agreed that the rate hikes will prove positive for Gold, after the impending bottom, because the Fed can not hike the rates up enough to “normalize” economic condition without making the debt load unable to be serviced. This is the corner the Fed has painted themselves into with ZIRP. The borrowed next to nothing, and if the raise to much, their bankrupt. One of the few options left is to inflate their way out of this, and Gold will get a bid when this realization comes home to roost.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:10 AM

    This may be off topic but months ago I mentioned the Canadian dollar would probably head down to $.61. Technically, it’s started another leg down and is at $.717. It’s also important to realize the Canadian dollar along with other variables is a proxy for the commodity prices which also have further to fall deep into 2016. Now this may stress some folks but it should be looked on as a future tremendous OPPORTUNITY. Also, it might not be a bad idea when the Canadian fiat currency bottoms to consider doing swaps for the American fiat currency.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:24 AM

      Thanks for the update Dr. Postma.

      With the Canadian Dollar falling, wouldn’t this going to hurt resource stocks even more until the bottom will be found? MAny of them are listed in Canadian Dollars, right?

      Well, I guess some will still rally after tax loss selling abates.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:42 AM

        Nic, they kind of go in tandem. A lot of the resource stocks are now seeing their bottoms and will probably bottom lower then they did in 2007—most of them should bottom in the first half of next year. The commodities themselves could continue to fall and bottom later.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:10 PM

          Agreed that the stocks will bottom before the commodities, and will likely lead the charge up. However, the commodity stocks will respond to aggressive moves to the upside or the downside in the underlying commodities.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:26 AM

      DOC
      Is it possible tat the Canadian currency will overshoot on the downside AND also lag behind the actual commodities? Another way of stating this: The commodities will start to reverse direction (increase in price) before the Canadian Dollar reverses.

      Or is my idea just loonie 😉

        Dec 19, 2015 19:39 AM

        Brian, your idea is not “loonie”. Also, you’re right; the Canadian dollar could overshoot to the downside especially since this commodity smash will probably compete with the worst on record. It’ll be worse then the one in 2007.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:47 PM

      I feel the falling Canadian dollar would save a lot of resource companies. Their products are in the toilet. This is particularly helping Alberta oil including the oil sand since the cost of continued production is not very high. It will benefit the relative position of Canadian oil producers. On the other hand, Canada also produce a lot of manufactured goods, especially in Central Canada. This may result in a boom of those industries. So the trade surplus with US will rise as a consequence and Canada may get a boost on its industry re-structure. If this weak oil price lasts very long, even Alberta will have to find new ways to survive despite of the hostile government. This happened in the 90s which was a period of low oil price combined with booming of Alberta economy. People called it Alberta phenomena. But the high paying jobs in oil patch will go away. Just my two cents.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:29 PM

      Doc, perhaps an opportunity for the young, but I have my doubts about gold’s recovery this decade or even next. Yes, it will spike up again, the key as in 1980 and 2010 is when to sell. (the ‘bugs never say sell) I am leaning toward 2040 , at which time i will be too old to enjoy it.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:20 AM

    So, a Canadian banking exec is patting the FED on the back saying they’re doing their homework and the economy is doing well. I am just amazed at the polarity of views that exist.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:24 AM

    Thanks for the update Dr. Postma.

    With the Canadian Dollar falling, wouldn’t this going to hurt resource stocks even more until the bottom will be found? MAny of them are listed in Canadian Dollars, right?

    Well, I guess some will still rally after tax loss selling abates.

    bb
    Dec 19, 2015 19:02 AM

    George Gero increased his asset allocation of gold to 10% from 5%,
    I did that a little while ago, I find that………..interesting.
    Guess I wont be the only one lookin silly when gold drops to $400, lol

      Dec 19, 2015 19:13 AM

      I don’t think that will happen bb

        bb
        Dec 19, 2015 19:46 AM

        We will see Al.
        When gold gets to about $1000, if buying does not increase substantially we could be lookin at a big drop from there, probly a slow grind down of course.

        I have always figured the Chinese increase buying, but a lot of people like Faber and Rogers have said they buy again under $1000, so China wont be the only ones.

        What remains to be discovered is supply, will supply meet demand?

        As was mentioned today, people will sell gold as Venesuala just did, and that’s gonna be a lot of supply, not even counting what we dont know about.

        As long as supply meets demand, the price will drop, it really is that simple, what we don’t know is how much supply there is.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:02 AM

          wonder who buys it…

          Dec 19, 2015 19:18 AM

          Prices will drop as long as supply exceeds demand. Lows are caused by the disappearance of sellers more than the appearance of new buyers.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:14 PM

            absolutely.

            LPG
            Dec 20, 2015 20:49 PM

            +1 w. Matthew

          Dec 19, 2015 19:26 AM

          Fair enough bb

      Dec 19, 2015 19:13 PM

      George Gero is a very sharp guy and has a very good handle on the entire commodity complex. I’ve been listening to and reading his information for about 6 years and he is very straight-forward and deals in the real. If he is adding more Gold to average into a larger allocation, then it is encouraging that someone with his knowledge and experience sees value in the PMs at present.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:18 AM

    Theralase

    A couple surprises, for me:
    1. Results for the 1b study (3+6 patients) will not be available until 4Q2016 (We will need to wait nearly 1 year to know the efficacy of this treatment)? Did I hear this correctly?
    2. The approval for the delivery device. There seemed to be a foregone conclusion that the light-emitting device/catheter will be approved. I am surprised that the approval of the drug and delivery device are separate.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:27 AM

      DOC (and others).
      Any comments on the Theralase Weekly chart (i.e., BB, 50/200 MA)?
      Thanks in advance

        Dec 19, 2015 19:45 AM

        Brian, the weekly chart for Theralase looks very positive at present. It’s possible to see at least a 4-5 week up move yet. Next week will tell volumes. If we hold our own and even trade higher, then we could have a run like mentioned above.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:43 AM

    Brian,
    It looks over bought on the daily. Weekly looks good.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:47 AM

      I agree with that chartster; you might get a little consolidation here on the daily and then an attempt to move higher.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:01 AM

    Al… its global cooling now… its all a bankers heist as usual..

      Dec 19, 2015 19:23 AM

      Fair enough, but there remains a lot of interest in the topic.

      A

        Dec 19, 2015 19:11 PM

        There is terrific technology innovation in the climate change era… but it probably would’ve come out anyway.
        The climate change bankers have a clever ploy of ‘save the environment’… I mean who doesn’t want to save the environment…
        that is a totally different subject imho.If they mean it then shut down monsanto…
        and as far as snip Al…. you were recommending it prior to its collapse…you did well BEFORE that…..

          Dec 19, 2015 19:57 PM

          Shut down Monsanto ?
          + a million awakened souls!

            Dec 19, 2015 19:06 PM

            I just dumped my Monsanto stocks………I am being political correct………GO ORGANIC…………..lol

            Dec 19, 2015 19:18 PM

            I really really really do NOT like Monsanto. There are other alternatives to Monsanto like Mosaic, Israel Chemicals, FMC Corp, Agrium, Intrepid Potash, PJSC Uralkali, Syngenta, Yara International, Adecoagro, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, Nufarm, Compass Mineral, and CF Industries that are better companies (not perfect and some are still flawed) but a little less evil than Monsanto.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:26 AM

            Well it looks like Monsanto is fighting with ChemChina to buy out the Swiss agricultural and chemical company Syngenta, so another one may bite the dust to their evil empire. Syngenta also uses genetically modified seeds but haven’t been nearly as ugly at seizing thousands of small farmers land and crops and putting them out of business if they didn’t switch over like Monsanto has. Maybe ChemChina will beat out Monsanto in the bid war.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:20 PM

          The most terrible policies being forced upon the world by the climate change banksters under the Green Deception to “save the environment” and be “sustainable” is the UN Agenda 21 initiatives. Agatha, are you familiar with this insane Agenda 21?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:38 PM

            Excelsior,
            I’m down 25% on intrepid potash (IPI). It will ( or should? ) be breaking out soon?..? I do hope the people wake up to the GMO scam. It seems like they are, but slower than I like to see.
            Intrepid is my stupid move of the year so far. Could be worse I guess.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:47 PM

            I haven’t researched agenda21 much, but what I get is that [ ignorant government officials gave away the city or county assets encumbered by the UN, which took the goofballs that deserve it, sovereignty ]
            Is that it?

            Dec 19, 2015 19:13 PM

            The good news about loosing on some trades, is that there are no better lessons learned. There just ain’t no easy way to learn.. Loosing is learning.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:15 PM

            The first charts I go to in the morning, is the ones I’m down on.. LOL

            Dec 20, 2015 20:35 AM

            Hey Chartster, yes some of the agricultural & Fertilizer/chemical stocks are really beat up at present and to me represent some real value.

            I like Intrepid Potash and do a small trade on it mid-year, but didn’t hold if for more than 2 weeks. I had a couple of really nice gains in (MOS) Mosaic and (ICL) Israel Chemicals in the early and middle part of the year that got me excited. Then I went in a bit too heavy in Mosaic, Israel Chemicals, Potash Corp, and FMC in the Summer and went underwater. Luckily I averaged down in September, and then sold into the bounce and strength in mid-October for a small loss in those positions.

            Overall I am at basically a wash for 2015 in Agriculture & Fertilizer companies, but I expect a much better year for 2016 in this sector.

            There are also a couple of good ETFs to spread the risk around like (SOIL) the Global X Fertilizer/Potash ETF, (JJA) ipath Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex, (RJA) – Rogers Agricultural ETN, and (MOO) the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF…. but MOO has a Monsanto holding which is a bummer 🙁 ….but still a good overall ETF.

            People gotta eat…….

            Dec 20, 2015 20:02 AM

            Check this out Chartster – I see what you mean about Intrepid Potash as they took a 79% decline in just the last 200 days. This could either spell disaster, or that this stock may have a larger percentage increase when the market turns. I’ll have to do a little digging to see what’s up. (Switch the chart below from Line Graph to Bar Chart to see what I mean).

            **Syngenta did much better than everyone, but that is because it is going to be bought out by either ChemChina or Monsanto and has had a few other offers from it’s competitors. This has caused the price to be bid up substantially, and shows that there are always good stories in any sector. I missed that move and didn’t realize that they were in a bid war until just now. Dang.
            _________________________________________________________________________

            Here is a 200 day Composite Chart of some of the Fertilizer/Chemical/Agricultural companies. You’ll notice that most of them took a 20-50% haircut just in the last 200 days.

            Companies featured on this chart:

            Mosaic, Potash Corp, FMC Corp, CF Industries, Israel Chemicals, Intrepid Postash, Compass Minerals, Uralkali, Yara Int’l, and Syngenta AG

            http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?MOS,POT,FMC,CF,ICL,IPI,CMP,URKA.L,YARIY,SYT#

            Dec 20, 2015 20:15 AM

            ditto on the GMO SCAM…………………

            Dec 20, 2015 20:20 AM

            Here is a 200 composite Chart for some of the agricultural ETFs.

            They fared much better than the individual stocks did in the sector (at only a -8% to -22% haircut over the last 200 days), but some have exposure to other chemical plays, farming plays & interesting agricultural companies, or even direct exposure to some of the soft commodities themselves.

            This is why it is good to be diversified in each investing asset class, and why moving forward (whether miners, oil, agricultural, whatever…..I am going to have some funds allocated in the ETFs and some funds in individual stocks personally).

            Companies Featured in the Agricultural ETF Chart:

            Global X Fertilizers, ipath DJ-UBS Agricultural subindex, Element Rogers Agricultural ETN, Marketvectors Agribusiness ETF, DB Agriculture Double Long ETN, PowerShares Global Agriculture ETF, Teucrium Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF, and iShares MSCI Glbl Agriculture Producers.

            http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SOIL,JJA,RJA,MOO,DAG,PAGG,TAGS,DBA,VEGI#

            Dec 20, 2015 20:43 AM

            Here’s my watch list for Fertilizer or Agricultural stocks & ETFs. Please let me know if there are some other companies or ETFs that should be on this list.
            __________________________________________________________________________

            Fertilizer & Agricultural Stocks & ETFs

            Company Name Symbol Last Price

            ADECOAGRO SA AGRO $12.08
            AFRICAN POTASH LIMITED APOTF $0.04
            AGRIUM INC AGU $92.07
            AMERICAN POTASH CORP APCOF $0.01
            CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC CF $41.61
            CHINA GREEN AGRICULTURE INC CGA $1.51
            COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATIONAL INC CMP $73.84
            DB AGRICULTURE DOUBLE LONG FUND DAG $3.42
            ELEMENTS ROGERS AGRICULTURE RJA $6.33
            ENCANTO POTASH CORPORATION ENCTF $0.05
            FMC CORPORATION FMC $37.93
            GENSOURCE POTASH CORP AGCCF $0.04
            GLOBAL X FERTILZERS/POTASH SOIL $9.25
            IC POTASH CORPORATION ICPTF $0.04
            INCITEC PITOV LTD INCZY $2.63
            INTREPID POTASH INC IPI $2.91
            IPATH BLMBRG AGRICULTURE SUBINDEX TR ETN JJA $35.21
            ISHARS MSCI GLOBAL AGRICULTUR PRODUCERS VEGI $22.23
            ISRAEL CHEMICALS LTD ICL $4.11
            MARKET VECTORS – AGRIBUSINESS MOO $47.23
            MOSAIC COMPANY (THE) MOS $28.54
            NORTHERN POTASH COMPANY NPTH $0.00
            NUFARM LTD NUFMF $5.05
            PJSC URALKALI URAYY $13.00
            POTASH CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN INC POT $17.32
            POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE DBA $20.40
            POWERSHARES GLOBAL AGRICULTURE PORTFOLIO PAGG $22.79
            SYNGENTA AG SYT $74.93
            TERRA NITROGEN COMPANY L.P. TNH $102.01
            TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURAL FUND TAGS $26.00
            VERDE POTASH PLC AMHPF $0.14
            YARA INTERNATIONAL ASA YRAIF $43.05

            Dec 20, 2015 20:11 PM

            Excelsior,
            Thanks for all your great stuff! You always bring the goods! And some of the bads..) But, you ” bring it “. Thank You!
            I always enjoy your take on things.
            Best

            Dec 20, 2015 20:04 PM

            Glad to share. Yes some of those may have been bads as well. Ha!

      Dec 19, 2015 19:03 AM

      That’s right Agatha. The gullibility of the masses is mind-boggling.

      A Climate Heretic Speaks Out
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skpJVhRBmwU

    Dec 19, 2015 19:04 AM

    First Quantum Minerals is a buy:

    http://schrts.co/bw77dX

    JP
    Dec 19, 2015 19:34 AM

    Hi guys, great comments again over the past days, thanks!
    I think Chris was/is spot on with his growing concern about the potential ‘policy error’ that the FED made. He also mentioned that there could be a hidden agenda. Well, in my view the FED may be so cornered that in fact it doesn’t matter anymore what they do.

    Look, over the past 7 years the US government/FED/Wall Street Inc, was the first and by far biggest Power with their ‘rescue plan’ of the market after the GFC, simply by bailing out big money at the cost of creating an enormous debt pile on the shoulders of the regular taxpayer and the future generations of the US. Old style ‘privatise the profits – socialise the losses’ practice of banksters, global corporates and elite government insiders.

    That game has now ended. They maximised their profits and the smart money already seems to have been running for the exits in the conventional markets for months.

    Over the past 7 yrs, the US was able to engineer the following ‘benefits’ simultaneously:
    – create economic ‘growth’ compared to smaller & EM nations
    – create a feeling of wealth by engineering a lunatic value increase in the conventional markets
    – simultaneously create a much stronger dollar – comes in handy for a net-importing nation
    – suppress the gold price – nice for big fiat money traders

    Now what happens if all these goodies turn around simultaneously? What crisis would that lead to? What happens if the markets realise that the FED will not/cannot keep this thing levitating anymore? Look what happened to the Nikkei friday – the genie may be out of the bottle there now that it is clear that the BOJ is not holding up that market anymore as they will not be net buyers of stocks from now on.

    The second day after the FED-event, we had the biggest volume down-day of the year in the S&P (correct me if I’m wrong), as if the market digested the FED talk and decided after some serious consideration, it’s time to pack and go. And that on a Friday in the second half of December. Any ideas how ‘short’ the markets could open (or end) on the shortest day of the year 12/21/15 ?

    Al, I’m not so sure if it’s wise to stay in the conventionals. We’re in the timing band of a 7-yr cycle low and 20% 1-day crashes happened before under similar circumstances. If the FED made a policy error, I don’t see how they can save this market, however much money they are willing to print again.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:00 PM

      Stay in the conventional jp? Temporarily, I am.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:24 PM

        Al, the world was here before I showed up, and so were you. But, I wouldn’t be in the top 1,000 companies right now for nuthin. They are about to get hammered. And I doubt it’s going to be a little pullback. It’s a crash.. ( IMO )

          Dec 19, 2015 19:27 PM

          I think I would agree with Chartster………JMHO.

            Dec 19, 2015 19:31 PM

            The market should have rolled over at 14,000 dow………that might be a min of a blow off…….jmho

            Dec 19, 2015 19:07 PM

            Great minds think alike, FFM.
            ( even if we get reversed on.. )

            Dec 20, 2015 20:17 AM

            DITTO….. 🙂

            Dec 21, 2015 21:18 PM

            Hi Frank,
            Hmmmm that’s interesting. In late 2010 I thought gold was rolling over at $1400 and would perhaps have a correction back to test $1000 for instance – but it didn’t. It went to $1900 in a hurry – and subsequently in this recent long bear market back to $1050 (so far). So, the move to $1900 was in the ‘wrong’ direction.

            For me, the move in the Dow from 14,000 to 18,000 is probably in the wrong direction too, so maybe it will end up at 10,000. It’s basically acting like gold x 10.

            I still cannot make up my mind whether gold is in a cyclical or secular bear market. Oil and platinum for instance obviously have been in secular bear markets since 2008. Gold was late to turn in 2011.

            I keep looking at the 2011 top in gold versus the 1980 top and the 2011 top was not so extreme. However, there was less inflation in 2011 than 1980 so inflation adjusted the difference between the two bull moves are smaller than the nominal price values suggest. Gold has been a more liquid market in this bull run with more nations participating, more paper products, more leveraged products and more mine supply than in 1980. So one would not expect a secular bull market top to be so extreme. In the same way, a Dow bubble top now would not be expected to be as extreme as in 1929.

            I we look at the current gold bear market, the correction has been less extreme than in the 1980s and for silver this is even more true (silver was down about 90% form 1980 to 1982 alone). However, again, the increased liquidity and diversity of these markets might account for this and not be an excuse to think that we are not in a secular bear market for both, especially if other commodities are in secular bears already.

            Eventually there will to be a US dollar bear market cycle and I wonder how it can take the dollar to new lows and gold to new highs considering the mess in the Eurozone and Japan and their increasing monetary debasement. In that case can we expect a dollar down move from 2016-2024 perhaps to produce new highs in gold? I wonder.

            As for the stock market, I agree with JP’s comments above that the Fed has been in a sweet spot with asset inflation and commodity deflation at the same time. Great time to tighten if you are going to. Great time for screwing other nations, especially the Third World by turning the screw on US dollar debt repayments. Great time for claiming victory over the 2008 credit crash. However, the possibility that all the sweet spots turn sour is there and that is the only hope for gold right now.

      Dec 20, 2015 20:38 AM

      I dind’t realise that the BOJ had signalled that it would stop buying equities. Sounds like they have even figured out that time is up.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:38 AM

    Matthew, if the CDN dollar falls in tandem with commodities that sounds great if you are buying Canadian stocks with American fiat but what about Canadians buying CDN listed stocks with CDN currency, will it make a difference for us. DT

      Dec 19, 2015 19:05 PM

      Matthew, I should qualify that last statement by saying does it really matter if you buy now or later if the CDN dollar and commodities which are listed in US currency fall in tandem, I am speaking in generalities rather than specific stocks.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:10 PM

        Yes, you should base your purchases on how Canadian stocks are doing relative to the Canadian dollar. Instead of GDXJ, you can look at ZJG:
        http://schrts.co/DXwwZb

        Countless resource stocks have vastly underperformed the C$ so there are plenty of bargains. Choose the right ones and you can make up for a lot of the loonies’ losses.
        The C$ is down about 17% vs the USD in 2015 but CRJ is up 131% (2.31x). Such a gain makes up for a lot purchasing power losses.

          Dec 19, 2015 19:52 PM

          Thanks for your input, Matthew.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:09 AM

            Ditto DT. Matthew have you got your eye on any small caps. Canadian GG has sunk like a rock and I’m wondering whether I’d do well transferring totally out of Goldcorp into smaller mining companies? At present all my PMs stocks are with Canada. Best A

            Dec 20, 2015 20:50 AM

            You might consider Strategic Metals for their nano cap upside potential without all the usual risks. It’s a Yukon play with a well diversified portfolio of properties and equities. Working capital exceeds its market cap by about 50% at over $35M.

            I think Rockhaven Resources is much better than the market realizes and Strategic Metals owns almost half of it. ATAC Resources’ potential, on the other hand, is no secret and Strategic owns a meaningful 8.6% of its shares.

            Here’s a list of their equity positions: http://www.strategicmetalsltd.com/s/StockHoldings.asp

            Dec 20, 2015 20:51 AM
            Dec 20, 2015 20:55 AM

            As you probably know, I also think True Gold Mining has huge upside but you should avoid it if Burkina Faso’s government makes you nervous.
            http://www.truegoldmining.com/sites/default/files/TGM_CorpPres_Nov.pdf

            Dec 20, 2015 20:00 AM

            I still think that Alexco is a fantastic silver play for its “optionality.” Once silver turns, they do not have to resume production anytime soon for their share price to do extremely well.
            http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/Home.asp

            Dec 20, 2015 20:04 AM

            Strategic Metals:
            http://schrts.co/lDHMsp

            Dec 20, 2015 20:07 AM

            Matthew – thanks for highlighting Strategic Metas. I like that they own big percentages in other companies and don’t have any debt. Do you think they’ll acquire Rockhaven or ATAC Resources in the next year or two?

            Here’s some info from their corporate presentation that caught my eye:

            Strategic’s working capital totals $37 million* including $23 million in cash and $14 million in marketable securities.
            •The Company has no debt.
            •Strategic’s shares currently trade at a 35% discount to working capital.
            •Our portfolio of promising junior resource investments includes:
            46.6% of Rockhaven Resources (RK);
            19.9% of Silver Range Resources (SNG); and,
            8.6% of ATAC Resources (ATC),
            •Strategic has more than 100 wholly owned projects with little to no short to medium term holding costs.

            Very interesting……. Much appreciated.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:08 AM

            Also, I am not familiar with Silver Range Resources. Any thoughts?

          Dec 20, 2015 20:59 AM

          Thanks Matthew. I’ve never even heard of the BMO Junior Gold ETF until you just mentioned it. I like their makeup, but am surprised by how heavily they weight Kinross. Any thoughts on why they didn’t space that weighting between 2 or 3 companies or why they are so hot on Kinross?
          __________________________________________________________________________

          BMO Junior Gold Index ETF

          Securities % ofAssets

          Kinross Gold Corporation 12.13%
          Royal Gold Inc (CAD) 11.51%
          Yamana Gold Inc. 9.67%
          Detour Gold Corporation 9.67%
          New Gold Inc. 6.45%
          OceanaGold Corporation 6.31%
          B2Gold Corp 5.72%
          NovaGold Resources Inc. 5.46%
          Alamos Gold Inc. 4.78%
          Centerra Gold Inc 4.48%
          Semafo Inc. 4.38%
          Torex Gold Resources Inc. 4.06%
          IAMGOLD Corporation 3.06%
          Alacer Gold Corp 3.00%
          Primero Mining Corp-CAD 2.17%
          China Gold Intl Resources 1.94%
          Sandstorm Gold Ltd 1.89%
          Guyana Goldfields Inc. 1.88%
          McEwen Mining Inc. 1.34%
          Cash 0.10%
          Novacopper Inc. 0.00%

            Dec 20, 2015 20:41 AM

            I have no idea but the same question can be applied to each of the top four. I’m more curious about the fact that Kinross is included at all since it is hardly a junior. Even at its September spike low it had a market cap of about $2B. Today, it’s over $3B.
            Whatever the reason, it’s probably not a bad thing at this time but it should probably be removed once a new bull market is well underway.

            The golden cross is coming soon:
            http://schrts.co/Rukcyg

            Dec 20, 2015 20:45 AM

            I do not think that Strategic Metals will ever acquire Rockhaven or ATAC and I’m happy about that.
            I have no special insights or knowledge regarding Silver Range Resources.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:09 PM

            Many thanks Matthew, A

            Dec 20, 2015 20:04 PM

            Good point on their top weighting in the BMO Junior Gold Index (ZJG). Don’t get me wrong, I’m neutral on Kinross and like and have traded Royal Gold, Yamana, and Detour, but they aren’t really Jr miners. I guess I’d consider Yamana on the cusp of a Mid-Tier becoming a Major, and Detour is a Mid-Tier that will likely get acquired by a Major in the future. I can see how if they wanted streaming companies that Sandstorm is in the list, because it is like a Jr Streamer. I’d say Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd and Abitibi Royalties Inc. would be the other two Jr Streaming companies and would be more appropriate to the upside or downside percentage moves that can be encountered in the smaller companies.

            That is interesting on the Strategic Metals, it looks like they are nice exposure to a number of different projects, but with such an investment in Rockhaven, it just seems like their may be efficiency in operations if they merged.

            Yeah, I’m not familiar with Silver Range Resources either, but thought I’d check.

            Thanks for your thoughts and the info Matthew. Much appreciated!!

            Dec 20, 2015 20:11 PM

            I don’t know if you’ve looked at the financials for Impact Silver but it looks like a turn is underway despite the continued pressure and new lows for silver. It’s a bit like Claude 20 months ago though not quite as obvious.
            Sprott still owns 14% of IPT and they have no debt. Book value is .72 —“just” 5.5x higher than its last trade. All we need now is for silver to do something confidence inspiring.
            http://schrts.co/8TTHv6

            Dec 20, 2015 20:19 PM

            I actually have been keeping a close eye on Impact Silver, but it has not been performing as well as the more established companies in this low price environment. When Silver bottoms and starts heading back up, I expect it to be a great performer like Alexco, Americas Silver Corp, Sierra Metals, Endeavour, Mag Silver, Excellon, Sabina Gold & Silver, and Avino Silver & Gold. I am taking a closer look at Silvercorp again after Dragonite pointed out how low their all in sustaining costs were. I still like Mandalay for the long term and like the dividend, but they really have more of an exposure to Gold now than Silver. Same with McEwen Mining.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:36 PM

            There are also a few explorers I’m watching like Kootenay, Mirasol, Minco, Avrupa, Dolly Varden, Nicola Mining (formerly Huldra Silver), Bayhorse Silver, Orex Minerals, and Bear Creek Mining.

            It looks like there is financial restructuring at Definance Silver, but I want to see what happens when they come out of restructuring. Their exploration upside looks huge as near 200 million ounces were mined right next door to their property. Their website has been down though, and I’m hoping to hear some update of what is going on over the next month or two.

            Also, I posted the article up above, but Aurcana is finally going through their restructuring, and I am very interested to see what will happen there once the dust settles. It is a shame they made so many bad decisions, and the timing in the metals prices hit right when they launched the second mine in TX. I like their Mexican mine and think it will be fine once the Silver and base metal prices recover.

            Dec 20, 2015 20:51 PM

            IPT is down 38% this year while Fortuna (FVI) is down 43% and Americas Silver (SPM) is down 52% but it is generally true that the safer bets will outperform (by falling less) in a downtrend. When silver turns up, I expect IPT to do better than most peers precisely because of its perceived risks. In 2015 it had three decent bounces of 60%, 52%, and 44%, respectively while SPM managed 58%, 33% and 40% moves. FVI had bounces measuring 20%, 30% and 49%.

            Fork resistance for silver comes in around 15.20 for the rest of December.
            http://schrts.co/AaqyYY

            Dec 20, 2015 20:55 PM

            Yes, I do expect Impact to perform quite well when metals and miners turn back up, and to have larger percentage increases. That was what I was saying up above.

            We’ve discussed in the past that the bigger names tend to be “safer” bets during down times, but if I look at the YTDinfo, it is only sort of true. I don’t really hold miners all year anyway, and just play the short term move in selected stocks, but here is the Year To Date info since you brought it up. I got different totals but was using Yahoo finance.

            Here are the Year to Date numbers for some of the Silver miners and it’s a mixed bag:

            Sabina Gold & Silver +70%
            Bayhorse Silver +50%
            Silver Standard Resource + 2.2%
            Fesnillo -13.97%
            Mag Silver -18.65%
            Endeavour Silver -24.34%
            Great Panther -25.81%
            Avino Silver & Gold -29.37%
            Hecla Mining -30.47%
            Pan American Silver -31.2%
            Alexco Resource -35.29%
            Sierra Metals -35.8%
            Silver Wheaton -36.62%
            First Majestic -37.25%
            Minco Silver Corp -38.71%
            Mandalay Resources -39.26%
            Tahoe Resources -40.59%
            Impact Silver -43.48%
            Hochschild Mining -48.51%
            Coeur Mining -48.53%
            Kootenay Silver -50.0%
            Silvercorp Metals -56.21%
            Bear Creek Mining -63.05%
            Americas Silver Corp -63.16%
            Avrupa Minerals -63.79%
            Aurcana Corp -65.22%
            Excellon Resources -68.42%
            Santacruz Silver -75%
            Dolly Varden Silver -81.43%
            El Tigre Silver – 84%

            *Again, I only do short term trades typically, but these are the year to date returns from Jan 1st – Dec 18th. It is interesting in that the Jrs and Seniors are all mixed together. Also, there are many on the bottom of the list that I also expect to outperform on the upside as we’ve been discussing.

    DC
    Dec 19, 2015 19:46 PM

    Great line-up and excellent weekend report! And great comments section, too. Al, always love your moderating, and Cory, your interview questions were great — thanks, guys! Mon-Sat wouldn’t be the same without Korelin Report!

    Dec 19, 2015 19:57 PM

    I gots me 2000 shares of Theralase. Up 12%. Gonna add at 50, 75, and 1$. Then ride the tide.

    Dec 19, 2015 19:07 PM

    Anybody have an opinion about the 1.15 trillion spending bill? is this a sign of fiscal stimulus replacing the monetary stimulus?

    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-congress-budget-20151218-story.html

    If this is true, inflation will start to happen in consumer goods instead of financial assets. The only question is where this money comes from without QE. We know major countries are cutting treasury holdings.

      Dec 19, 2015 19:11 PM

      Financial assets may decline as a lack of blood transfusion. The tax cut and spending may increase the buying by the recipients of this money, corporations, social welfare and government workers. The previous recipients of FED money are 1% of 1%, so they tends to buy financial assets such as stocks or high end arts anf thus the inflation efffect is not very obvious to general public.

        Dec 19, 2015 19:57 PM

        Huh…

    Dec 19, 2015 19:36 PM
      Dec 20, 2015 20:03 AM

      Thanks Exelcior

        Dec 20, 2015 20:41 AM

        Seemed like an interesting development for Rye Patch. Cheers Rev!

    Dec 19, 2015 19:38 PM
    Dec 19, 2015 19:44 PM

    Aurcana used to be a sponsor on this site, they made some errors in judgment, adn completely bottomed out. However, their Mexican and Texas mines are ver interesting assets, and I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop and for them to do a reverse split, or merge, or go bankrupt. Finally there is some progress being made on their restructuring, and I am curious to see how this story will unfold post-restructuring in early January. Just a heads up for Silver mining investors to keep an eye on what will rise out of the ashes with Aurcana.
    ________________________________________________________________

    Aurcana Corporation Update on Restructuring Transaction
    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Dec. 18, 2015)

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/525-tsx-venture/aun/14892-aurcana-corporation-update-on-restructuring-transaction.html

    Dec 20, 2015 20:05 AM

    Any thoughts/ suggestions guys about my selling Goldcorp (which has sunk like a stone) and re-investing in cash-strong junior/s. Thanks. A

      Dec 20, 2015 20:09 AM

      go to morris hubbartt on 321gold….he has a site subscription site

        Dec 20, 2015 20:41 AM

        Morris Hubbartt is a really good guy, and I invest in many of the stocks he trades in his Superforce Jrs list off of the holdings in GDXJ. Great suggestion Agatha.

        He get’s regularly featured on 321gold and here is a link to his most recent article. It has 4 different embedded VIDEO links and a ton of very good sector and company charts with his technical analysis on it. Good Stuff!
        _________________________________________________________________________

        Gold Stocks: Tax Season Buying Opportunity
        Morris Hubbartt

        http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt121815.html

      Dec 20, 2015 20:00 AM

      Andrew, GG looked technically lousy for a long time—-it should get a bump soon but it won’t be lasting. Since you sold it, I believe your idea of buying a company that’s currently producing with good reserves and minimal to no debt is your best bet. Just a thought. Doc.

        Dec 20, 2015 20:12 AM

        doc…can you possibly be more explanative re GG… technically….hope you are feeling better
        thank you
        ps do yr technicals ever change..??abruptly….?

          Dec 20, 2015 20:06 AM

          Agatha, technicals can change quickly but in our situation with the PMs in the way they’ve fallen over a significant time, the odds are well against a sudden reversal. That’s why many months ago I was warning folks not to get excited every time we had a little bump up in gold. Tremendous technical damage is being done to the PM stocks and it won’t just bounce back once a bottom is put in for gold/silver. It’ll be unlike 2007 when you had a sudden demolishment of markets due to a sudden financial crisis and big monetary and fiscal stimulus and a resultant big bounce back up for all assets. Right now you’re having a deleveraging along with weakening economies and raising of rates—-more stimulus is currently on hold in the U.S. This time around will show a gradual bottoming with a gradual move up over time before it starts to pick up steam sometime in the distant future.

        Dec 20, 2015 20:23 PM

        Thanks Doc – sorry to hear you’ve been poorly – I’ve not been keeping up with all the posts lately since we’ve just moved house. Very best, Andrew

    Tom
    Dec 20, 2015 20:35 AM

    All the above questions can be answered by the shareholders of the Federal Reserve private Bank

    Dec 20, 2015 20:18 AM

    And now for something completely different…

    http://www.flixxy.com/french-chefs-burlesque-comedy-act.htm

      Dec 20, 2015 20:58 PM

      loved it!

    Dec 20, 2015 20:14 AM

    Here’s a chart of the Dow ETF (DIA) that I put up last month and the outlook has deteriorated further:
    http://schrts.co/Eej2pH

    Dec 20, 2015 20:46 AM

    Silver is at an interesting juncture. If the 50% Fibonacci arc support (based on the ’01-’11 move) holds, we will see $50 by June 2017.
    http://schrts.co/QyNLKY
    (Sorry, it is a monthly chart so a stockcharts subscription is necessary to view properly.)

      Dec 20, 2015 20:50 PM

      so Matthew whats the 50%…. thanks

        Dec 20, 2015 20:43 PM

        Currently, I’d guesstimate 14.07-14.09 on the monthly chart. In January, it will be around 14.70 and in March, about 15.50.
        A weekly chart provides more detail since there are four price bars per month and the arc is rising steeply: http://schrts.co/GezGxy
        At the top left of the chart you can click inside the “Inspect” box to access more price info as you move your cursor around the chart. Just below the chart and to the left, you can shorten the period in order to zoom-in. Just change the years, months, etc and click update.

    Dec 20, 2015 20:43 AM

    Chartster there are no reply buttons on many posts…
    GMOS are part of their plan… so are chem trails..
    Russia says they are going 100% anti gmo…. by 2020..

    Dec 20, 2015 20:50 AM

    The yen looks like it’s getting ready to rise:
    http://schrts.co/HB9qms

      Dec 20, 2015 20:07 PM

      Hopefully that would be positive for the PMs as well then. They have a pretty good correlation.

    Dec 20, 2015 20:21 PM

    Matthew appreciate your input….

    Dec 20, 2015 20:23 PM

    Something may be stirring in “soft commodity” land. Interesting right now are sugar and soybeans—-etfs sgg and soyb. I’m personally not purchasing right here but will watch carefully for them to do some technical enhancements for potential purchases.

      Dec 20, 2015 20:06 PM

      Doc I posted a few ideas up in the thread on some different fertilizer and agricultural stocks and ETFs. Some of the ETFs invest directly in the soft commodities themselves. Do you follow any of those listed?

      Dec 20, 2015 20:07 PM

      Maybe Monsanto is dumping all their soybeans…….and going organic……

        Dec 20, 2015 20:12 PM

        Good one. Funny FFM.

      Dec 20, 2015 20:55 PM

      are you ok doc….???

    Dec 20, 2015 20:23 PM

    Monsanto,
    Not just a farm controller, not just a government controller.. Not just the new owner of black water…. Not just the agent company of Dow chemical / agent orange… Not just the company that can ensure your goofy ass can see a hospital really soon, that can in turn, show you the door to ” new and improved ” ways to keep you alive under the supervision of them! AS LONG AS YOU CAN PAY,, out the ying yang ..

    And if course, teach your kids to do the same! No doubt!

    Be ..good..little slaves…

      Dec 21, 2015 21:00 AM

      Or move into Russia….no GM crops there as decreed by Putin!

    Dec 20, 2015 20:12 PM

    The good news to report is, dow chemical and Monsanto stocks are going to get ..hammered….! ( just gives me the warm and fuzzies )

    Dec 21, 2015 21:48 AM

    Off to a good start…………1076

    Dec 21, 2015 21:54 AM

    NICE article at 321 gold……Clive Maund……….cot, falling wedge ….

    Dec 21, 2015 21:12 AM

    Frank.. they v well may keep the rate increases….no qe…

      Dec 21, 2015 21:11 AM

      according to some, the rate increase will not be bad for gold.

    Dec 21, 2015 21:22 AM
    Dec 21, 2015 21:48 AM

    SPY:GLD (S&P priced in gold) Head and Shoulders Top:
    http://schrts.co/au6Ccr