Minimize

Welcome!

Jay Taylor joins us with his outlook for 2016

December 22, 2015

For our market wrap today Jay Taylor joins us to chat about his outlook for 2016 and the trends he will be watching. There are many people calling for trend changes early on next year… will they happen?

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
76 Comments
    bb
    Dec 22, 2015 22:52 PM

    Speaking of more cash than share price, I read a Bob M article the other day, I guess there is $1 cash for every 38 cent share for Minco silver.

    Some people might figure that’s some kinda deal. lol

      LPG
      Dec 22, 2015 22:06 PM

      BB,

      Re: Minco silver, in case you haven’t done so – which I suspect – , I suggest you take a look at Note 4 of their latest financials, and even Note 5. That will give you some additional perspective on your comment.

      My 2cts.

      LPG

        bb
        Dec 22, 2015 22:07 PM

        59 mil shares/59 mil assets? dollars?

        Sounds like Bob was pretty close to accurate LPG
        Is that what ur gettin at?
        Good deal or lousy deal?

        I own a little Minco, not sure if that means much tho, I own few dif companies.

          LPG
          Dec 22, 2015 22:22 PM

          BB,

          Suggest you take a look at the suggestion i mentioned above for some added perspective. You’ll get my point.

          GL,

          LPG

            bb
            Dec 22, 2015 22:49 PM

            ok, I actually have all the perspective I figure I need on minco, but I was interested in what you thought.
            As you took the time to suggest a note or two
            But if you have no opinion thats ok.

            Best

            Dec 23, 2015 23:57 AM

            BB, LPG tried to help you. As of the end of Q3, Minco has nowhere near $1 per share in cash/cash equivalents.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:00 AM

            Mathew:

            Perhaps you should have read Note 4 and Note 5 more carefully. The key words you ignored were “remained in China” Who cares where the $1 a share resides? I stand by my statement, Minco Silver has $1 per share and you misread Note 4 and Note 5.

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:15 AM

            Mathew, thanks to you and LPG.
            Now, my turn to help you, to learn how to do DD, check Mickey Fulp.
            Bobs mention of Minco is excellent to anyone interested in PM investing, no its not the only excellent opportunity, as to which ones are better than others I let people argue the finer points as they will.

            That argument does not lessen the opportunity for Minco in the least.

            And just because, I as well as many other PM investors have been aware of Minco for years.
            I would think the “traders” were astute enough to have purchased yesterday and captured that potential 20% today, but heck, Im no trader so what do I know?

            Dec 23, 2015 23:43 AM

            Bob, I did not say that I care where the $1 resides. The point is, Minco does not appear to have $1 per share. $17,147,611 of the $19,070,575 in cash resides in China and $15,457,833 of the $16,551,913 in term deposits resides in China. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $35,622,488 at the end of Q3. With 59M+ shares out, Minco has far less than $1 per share.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:45 AM

            BB, you’ve not helped me in the least. I do not have anything bad (or good) to say about Minco because I do not follow it.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:48 PM

            My situation exactly Matthew.

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:02 PM

            Mathew, it sounds like your having a hard time reading info, I mentioned to you that to learn DD read Mickey Fulp, (if you don’t understand his info helps there may not be any)my mention of Minco was merely Bob is right, and was none to shabby for the day traders either.
            At least I would think, as you traders seem to relish small % gains, 20% would have put you guys in ecstasy I woulda thought.

            No big deal Mathew, to itch his own.

            Again, thanks to you and LPG.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:46 PM

            PLEASR CONSIDER MORE OPINIONS THAN JUST MICKY’ S AND BOB’S.

            Not saying they have no value just saying look at more than just two.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:13 PM

            My own DD serves me just fine, but thanks.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:01 PM

            Matthew:

            When I suggested you read the notes more carefully, what I meant was you should read the notes more carefully. Note 4 in facts mentions the $35 million show higher in the numbers. But Note 5 says, “As at September 30, 2015, short-term investments of $15,457,833 (RMB 73,234,576) (December 31, 2014 – $13,822,164 (RMB 73,155,186)) remained in China. As at December 31, 2014, short-term investments consisted of cashable guaranteed investment certificates with one year to maturity.”

            Note 5 gives a number only for the $15 millionth that remained in China. It does not give a number for the other $7 million that does not remain in China but is shown at the top of the numbers.

            So $35 million and change and $22 million and change with a few pennies here and there add up to about $59 million and they have 59 million and change in shares and that works out to $1 a share as far as I can figure.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:07 PM

            Short term investments are not part of “cash and cash equivalents.” Therefore, Minco has $1 per share in assets and roughly 60 percent of it is in cash.

            Still, it’s true that I looked at the notes a bit haphazardly at first as I was preoccupied with the market.

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:52 PM

            unreal.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:57 PM

            Matthew:

            Unless you are utterly anal, “As at December 31, 2014, short-term investments consisted of cashable guaranteed investment certificates with one year to maturity.” are so close to cash that only an accountant with a giant attitude would consider them anything other than cash.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:21 PM

            Good discussion on Minco guys. I have followed it for a while, but never been an investor, but this has my curiosity peaked. I think the debate was useful in understanding Notes 4 and 5, and it seems like there is good value per share that is currently under-valued when you add the “Cash and Cash equivalents” to the “1 year Short-term Investments” . Very interesting.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:05 PM

            Yes, bb, it is unreal that you’d cop an attitude with LPG for trying to help you.

            Bob, I am often utterly anal. Sometimes it’s even a good thing believe it or not. This time, however, I was not anal at all as I was too busy with the market to notice the details of the short term securities. I should have simply called out bb for being a big b and left at that.

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:59 PM

            LPG was “suspecting” I didn’t know how, suggesting for added perspective? to me that was pretty arrogant. I have an attitude?
            I guess I should have just said to you and LPG, thanks for your suggestion and all but maybe read it again yourself.

            As you guys were being so “helpful” in your minds, I figured I would return the favour and actually give you useful info, not my fault you already know everything about everything.

            Actually, I was also mentioning Mickey on an off chance that someone new was around too.
            The guy has more info about DD than the Austrian school of economics has about Austria.
            For anyone just beginning resource investing it would be very difficult to find a better mentor.

            That of course was silly, wont be anyone new till gold gets moving.

            For anyone investing in resource companies understanding that we are bottom bouncing and may very well begin another bull someday, those people might well consider adding Minco silver to the collection.

            And maybe thank Bob for having the patience to correct your guys perspective. lol

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:33 PM

            Al, “please consider…..”
            I did consider lpg and Mathews opinion, for about 1 second, they were 100% wrong, on top of it they came across like they had some kind of secret, like they were all knowing or something. They were misleading people and being believed. I asked for a simple opinion, but nope, secretive, had they just said it I would have pointed out the error of their ways right away.

            Bob, was 100% correct and was giving ever investor in resource stocks a huge gift of info, a reminder at least.

            Micky has nothing to do with Minco as far as I know, maybe he does, I have no idea, ask him.

            My point about Mickey which EVERYONE missed or is too arrogant to acknowledge is he has more knowledge concerning DD for resource mining than anyone around here has in their little finger other than Bob. There are others of course but not around here.

            What he also has, is step by step here ya go this is what ya look at and how, why, where, when on which day, time, phase of the moon kinda stuff that would take years of education and experience to even have a remote clue about.

            And he gives it all away free because he honestly wants to help the industry and people interested enough to put a little effort into it.

            Not like most of the shills squakin about their prowess and the very way they walk has the supermodels fainting as they pass by kinda bs, like “SHORTAGE” for example, or DO THE MATH or whatever. The industry is full of it actually.

            So, in response to Please consider, I do consider….
            I consider this a great forum and Rick,Chris,Doc and all contributors keep it…..interesting. Thanks for doing the show, Cory and Al.

            Actually, I think Bob might have mentioned somthin about how resource guys give info in a recent article. lol

            Dec 23, 2015 23:59 PM

            LPG was wrong to direct you to some details???

            Let’s see, Minco trades at just .2x book and has plenty of cash yet still needs to promote itself to the BBs of the world at the bottom of a bear market? What gives?

            There are exceptions, but I would generally like to see promo funds spent in a mature bull when a company is at a multiple of book value, not a fraction, and is almost out of money. But that’s just me.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:19 PM

            Matthew:

            Your attitude is beyond anal. Minco isn’t spending a cent on promotion with me or anyone else. With an ounce of silver in a resource and $1 in real assets per share, anyone but a dolt would see some value especially when the person pointing it out doesn’t have a dog in the fight.

            LPG wasn’t very clear as to just what he was trying to say any more than Minco was in Note 5.

            If you are so smart, perhaps you would like to enlighten us as to other companies sitting on far more assets than their market cap and I’ll be happy to throw rocks at you. We probably are at a bottom and like when I recommended Silver Standard at $1.25 in Dec of 2001, I’d like to see interested investors who happen to like silver know about interesting companies.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:39 PM

            Ok, Bob, that’s great news. I didn’t know Minco wasn’t one of your sponsors.

            Who’s throwing rocks? Even if Minco only had the $35M in cash that is hardly a bad thing considering its market cap unless the burn is $7M/month and it’s probably one twentieth that (just guessing). As for the the money that might be trapped in China, I’m sure that’s priced-in already if it was an issue in the first place (and I’m sure it was and is to many).

            Dec 23, 2015 23:45 PM

            Btw, bb, I sure hope Fulp “has more info about DD than the Austrian school of economics has about Austria” since the Austrian school of economics has nothing to do with Austria or any other nation. LOL

            Dec 23, 2015 23:51 PM

            Matthew:

            Every country has some form of currency controls. I wish LPG had been a little more clear about what he was trying to say. I simply still don’t understand his point.

            And while my view is that you trying to make a difference between forms of liquid assets is petty, if I accept your point that they have $35 million in real cash, it still means they have $.59 per share in cash for a $.365 share. I personally think that’s a really good deal.

            I do my very best to make my potential conflicts of interest clear in my pieces. I don’t own Minco Silver, I’m not paid by Minco Silver but for those who might like silver, I think it’s a great deal and their burn rate is simply tiny.

            And people are still responsible for their own investment decisions.

            The money is not trapped in China but it will be used there. They have lots of cash outside China should they need some.

            LPG
            Dec 23, 2015 23:11 PM

            Just realized comments were piling on here so I just go interested in what was going on.
            My reaction was: wow….

            The post below is a bit longish, so I’m gonna break it down as follows:
            a) I’ll repost what I first wrote above (my initial comment),
            b) I’ll capitalize a few things
            c) I’ll comment specifically on this capitalized items…
            d) I’ll finish w. some final thoughts/comments

            Here we go.

            A) My initial comment (QUOTE, w. capitalized items and notes numbers added):
            “Re: Minco silver, (1) IN CASE YOU HAVEN’T DONE SO – (2) WHICH I SUSPECT – , I suggest you take a look at Note 4 of their latest financials, and even Note 5. That will give you some (3) ADDITIONAL PERSPECTIVE on your comment.”

            C) Comments:
            Re: (1): I started the comment saying “IN CASE you haven’t done something”. —> so if you BB had done that already, that was fine –> “end of the story.”

            Re: (2): I wrote “I SUSPECT” you didn’t read the notes.
            If I was wrong, you just had to tell me “you’re wrong: read them already”
            Here also, could have been “end of the story”.

            Re: (3): I used the words “ADDITIONAL PERSPECTIVE”. So let’s look at these 2 words separately:
            * I used “ADDITIONAL” because the notes give you more details/bkdown vs. your comment, BB, that (QUOTE): “there is $1 cash”.
            * I used “PERSPECTIVE” cause the cash & cash equivalents are held in an account where some authorities may need to give the green light for it to be sent back to Canada. To quote note 4:
            “Remittance of these funds back to Canada may require approvals by the relevant government authorities or designated banks in China or both.”
            –> So to me, this little detail gives more perspective. Hence me using that word. Maybe some people don’t think this is “perspective”. To me, that was.

            *****************

            D) Final thoughts/comments:
            Here, I’d like to address 3 more “points”: opinion, due diligence, and performance.
            1) opinion:
            BB, you asked what I thought on/about Minco. (Quote: ” I was interested in what you thought.”)
            As a background, I don’t think I’ve ever discussed penny stocks on KER (Minco kind of falls into that category, in my book).
            That’s my own rule and I try to stick to it. I don’t think I’ve ever made an exception.
            The 2 stocks I ever mentioned here that I owned were PVG and FSM. These are not penny stocks in my book. For disclosure’s sake: I’m still long PVG.
            If someone can point to a stock that I mentioned in the past and which is a penny stock, please feel free to let me know and I’ll apologize – understand that if I apologize, it won’t be for having mentioned a penny stock: rather, I’ll apologize for having mentioned that I don’t mention them while I fact I might have done so.

            2) due diligence:
            Thanks for your suggestion about due diligence and Mickey Fulp.
            Can’t promise I will check him out on the matter, but thanks anyway.

            3) Performance:
            You bought a stock, it’s up 15-20% today. Good for you !

            Hope this clarifies a few things.

            Best, and GL to all investing/trading.

            LPG

            Dec 23, 2015 23:12 PM

            I agree with all that but the degree of my pettiness was unintentional (this time). That’s what I get for taking a half-assed look at company that I don’t even follow. Lesson learned, hopefully.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:13 PM

            My comment at 8:12 was for Bob.

            LPG
            Dec 23, 2015 23:30 PM

            A little shorter one this time:

            BB, to quote you:
            “I did consider lpg and Mathews (1) OPINION, for about 1 second, (2) THEY WERE 100% WRONG, on top of it they came across like they had some kind of secret, like they were all knowing or something. (3) THEY WERE MISLEADING PEOPLE and being believed.”

            RE: (1):
            According to you, I gave an OPINION on Minco? Really?
            –> I suggested you take a look at notes in case you had not done so. That’s it.

            Re: (2): according to you, “I was 100% wrong”
            —> 100% wrong about what BB? About an opinion that I didn’t give ?
            H-e-l-l-ooooooo ?

            Re: (3): “I was misleading people”
            –> Misleading about what ? About referring you to 2 footnotes in the financials?

            So let me put it this way:
            I don’t mind when people disagree w. me.
            As a matter of fact, I enjoy that because disagreements is what typically leads to higher knowledge.
            But a valuable disagreement assumes a minimum of intellectual integrity during the exchange.
            And part of intellectual integrity requires sticking to what people said or wrote – not writing fantasies, whatever the motives.

            IMHO, you can do better than that BB.
            And IMHO, KER deserves better than those types of comments too.

            LPG

            Dec 23, 2015 23:44 PM

            Anyone have any thoughts on why there was such a large volume spike and bullish candle in Minco, that broke above the 50 day EMA and upper band of the Kelter Channel?

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSV.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p11999589376

            Dec 23, 2015 23:06 PM

            There just doesn’t seem to be any news or new data that would warrant such an out-sized move from out of nowhere. I’m looking for a technical reason, and don’t really see one either. Could it just a larger institutional investor taking a position that caused the temporary spike recently?

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:36 PM

            n December 22, 2015 at 3:06 pm,
            LPG says:
            BB,
            Re: Minco silver, in case you haven’t done so – which I suspect – , I suggest you take a look at Note 4 of their latest financials, and even Note 5. That will give you some additional perspective on your comment.
            My 2cts.
            LPG

            No idea here this ends up. Getting ridiculous but Ill answer LPG

            This is you talking about a penny stock, I mention a Bob article and you imply I havnt read info on Minco, in reality, it is you that didnt inform yourself.
            I suggest to you Bob is pretty accurate in his assesment, you for some reason insist I am ill informed.
            You dont say what it is, just look, your missing info.
            I havnt got a clue what your talking about because I have accurately informed myself.
            I can read financial info.
            Just so you know, I have been adding,subtracting,dividing and multiplying by two for a few months now.

            I asked your opinion as you were implying some kinda secret knowledge.
            You didnt respond, no big deal.

            And your right, I could have responded “read them” Guess I shoulda, my apologies.

            Yup, Minco was up today, hoooray, too bad Im not trading it I guess, when PMs move up Minco is pretty much gonna be a winner. Thats what I own these things for now, hearing about them is a good thing and thats all I was doing by posting Bob had written an article.
            I knew it was darned accurate about a darn good shot at winning one.

            Its clear LPG, I have taken the EM pha Sis from the wrong SYlabLES.
            I will do my best not to do so again, but it happens.

            I appreciate your input around here.

            Best.

            bb
            Dec 23, 2015 23:47 PM

            Mathew, dont be jokin about the Austrian school of economic not being in Austria now.

            Im gonna say it just one more time.
            Bob, your 100% correct concerning Minco, I guess its been a bit of a secret for the last while, at one time it wasnt, but I guess there are lots of companies and its easy to misplace a memory now and then.
            Minco is an excellent opportunity.
            And their cash is far from “trapped”.
            They are an excellent suggestion.

            My guess (NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE) lol is they survive till the turn in PMs and then thrive.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:08 PM

            Excelsior, Bob could be a big part of the reason for the move. He’s one of the few left who can still move a miner with his opinion. The time is technically right for such action anyway.

            Dec 23, 2015 23:09 PM

            BB -TF you talkin about? lol

            Dec 24, 2015 24:02 AM

            LPG:

            One more time so you understand. You made reference twice to Note 4 and Note 5 in the Minco financials. You were not clear as to what you intended to get across. You have all the right in the world to an opinion, any opinion at all. But neither BB nor I and I suspect everyone else, actually understood what your point was.

            Then much later, you attempt to explain what you meant and that was just as confusing. Sorry but it was confusing.

        Dec 22, 2015 22:51 PM

        Great point LPG!

        Thank you

    bb
    Dec 22, 2015 22:54 PM

    And if Bob reads this I wouldn’t mind reading your book.
    Hope you mention where to buy on 321.

      Dec 22, 2015 22:53 PM

      bb, whose book would that be?

      Approval to take capital out of the country would personally bother me.

      Best

        Dec 23, 2015 23:02 AM

        Al:

        Sometimes you spend too much time looking at the forest to see the trees. Minco has a giant silver project in China. That’s where they need to spend the money eventually.

          bb
          Dec 23, 2015 23:20 AM

          You are absolutely correct Bob.

          And you made a pretty good point imo, that silver just might go up some day.

    bb
    Dec 22, 2015 22:07 PM

    Bobs book.

    Why would approval to move capital out of a country bother you Al?
    Are you for capital controls now?

      Dec 23, 2015 23:27 AM

      I think he is referring to item 4 and 5 on the financial statement, concerning CHINA…check the notes…..

        Dec 23, 2015 23:28 AM

        Bob should have mentioned the same…………jmho, but, since BOB does not own any shares, but, he does say your own DD.

          Dec 23, 2015 23:31 AM

          btw….I do not own any of the stocks he is recommending…….

          Dec 23, 2015 23:49 PM

          Which Bob are you referring to?

      Dec 23, 2015 23:54 PM

      I find it very difficult to believe that Bob would ever say that. He is much too bright.

    Dec 23, 2015 23:19 AM

    Matthew
    Strategic Metals is a fascinating investment option if one is interested in investing in the Yukon exploration story, while GREATLY reducing the risk of having to bet on specific companies. Thanks for the info
    Brian

    Dec 23, 2015 23:45 AM

    HSBC…..OUT with bullish forecast for gold, silver and platinum….gold $1250, platinum $1095, and silver $15.95 for 2016.

    Dec 23, 2015 23:47 AM

    Armstrong named Person of the Year by Forex………….

    Dec 23, 2015 23:56 AM

    The best for last……………….
    Minnesota Muslims DEMAND pork free Halal Food from…MINN.WELFARE FOOD BANK.

    Dec 23, 2015 23:02 AM

    If short term rates on treasury bills decline without any rally in the Major Indeces, then a stock market rout is in order. This would be the end of a long-standing policy of the discounting of treasury bills, starting the rally in 1982:

    http://schrts.co/3CCExX

    The NASAQ crash and 2008 financial crisis were indicators of a massive top, not necessarily a repeat of 1929, as it’s been described. The extent of the rout to come remains an open question, but the defensive position would be in gold mining shares. In the main, the rise is parabolic in the sense that derivatives contracts are governed by probability curves at the heart of their agreement, everyone betting the same way. The chart will not appear prabolic, however.

    Dec 23, 2015 23:30 AM

    fran, apologies for being ignorant but what would chart look like..??
    thank you

      Dec 23, 2015 23:44 AM

      The chart of the S&P does not appear parabolic, as it is posted above, but a steady low volume melt-up.

      Behind it all you have derivatives, depending exclusively on lower interest rates. Prices in the S&P depend on probability curves in derivative contracts, this is where the sense that markets are parabolic or in a parabolic state reside, not in the visual appearance of the chart.

      A chart that is visually ‘going prabolic’ rises very quickly, going vertical on higher volume. But what has in matter of fact ‘gone parabolic’ is the extent if borrowing on margin, as you can see here. NYSE margin debt is at the highest it’s been in history:

      http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse-margin-debt.html?NYSE-investor-credit-SPX-since-1980.gif

        Dec 23, 2015 23:30 AM

        So the way I look at what’s coming is a big downturn at first, then a grinding, protracted bear market. The example I go by, though it might be entirely wrong, is the 1973/74 bear market, with some markets coming off sharply and some sectors affected more than others:

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–74_stock_market_crash

          Dec 23, 2015 23:42 PM

          Who really know Fran Six?

          I keep remembering the old Beach Boys song, “God Only Knows”

          Dec 23, 2015 23:14 PM

          I’m leaning that direction as well…..a big downturn followed by the slow grind.

      Dec 23, 2015 23:50 AM

      Interesting stuff as usual FranSix. I agree with your expectation that the coming bear might look similar to the 73/74 bear.

    Dec 23, 2015 23:34 AM

    bb– did you read those minco notes..?
    thanks

    bb
    Dec 23, 2015 23:41 AM

    Remittance of these funds back to Canada may require approvals by the relevant government authorities or designated banks in China or both.

    I honestly don’t understand why you guys are “dancing around”

    I haven’t written about Minco Silver (MSV-T) for years. Things have been quiet on the China silver story. They have $1 a share in cash. The shares are $.365 today. So if they close the company you have about a 200% return the day they close.

    They also have a big silver deposit in China with 63 million ounces of silver in a 43-101 resource. You have to pay for the $1 in cash per share but the silver is free. Silver may go up someday

    From 321 today.

    Try moving 10k cash across the Canadian American boarder, heck, try and take 10k cash outa your bank in either country.

    Im thinkin Minco will buy shares in Bitgold. lol