Let’s look at the long-term cycles in gold
The chart below produced by The Chart Store provides a great overview of the long-term cycles in gold.
I am always impressed at the consistency of these longer term cycles. As you can see, since the mid 70s the normal length of the cycle is between 394 and 444 weeks. Considering this current cycle is 373 weeks we should expect at least another 20 weeks before the final bottom is in place. While this might not sound like good news the fact is we have already lived through the largest portion of the decline. Watch for the middle to end of the year to be when gold puts in its true bottom!
REAL Gold Cycles since 1974. pic.twitter.com/HK9Sh2XIx9
— The Chart Store (@TheChartmeister) January 6, 2016
thanks, this is a great chart
How come its not a big double top, cant get thru resistance, and is in for the big “tank”?
Maybe thats how Dent sees it?
Funny, it is a big double top. The retrace would eventually take us to 214 dollars back in 1970!
If you look at that chart critically you can also see that the next big bull cycle is probably going to be nothing more than the completion of the right shoulder in a massive Head and Shoulder formation created between 2001 and today.
That’s not a continuation pattern of a secular bull market. It would prove we are in a secular bear once and for all. Not long to wait to find out. If gold rises but then fails at the 2008 peak the argument will finally be over.
pretty easy to argue against the cycles they have selected. I would stick with fundamentals on a long term chart not cycles. keep the cycles for short term charts.
That chart is extremely distorted due to the corrupt ways in which the government measures CPI.
The Shadow Stats version is far closer to reality:
https://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/channels/article_default/150421InflationAdjustedGoldPriceUsing1980CPIFormula.png
Thank you. I must say I prefer the chart you posted by far to the one Cory has linked.
Me too ! This chart makes me feel a lot better 🙂
Thanks Matthew.
In case anyone didn’t notice, the Shadow Stats chart simply used the same CPI formula that the government used 35 years ago — before it corrupted it beyond all recognition.
10 year U.S. T-Note priced in gold:
http://schrts.co/Z1EvHQ
(monthly)
As you can see, it is now at some resistance but the uptrend is intact.
I am waiting patiently for gold to go to 5K or 10K.