Outlook for Investors in 2016 – Hour 1
Hour 1:
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- Segment 1-2: We kick off the show chatting with Dan Oliver, President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, about politics, specifically the Democratic ticket. In Segment 2 we shift focus to discuss the overall investing environment.
- Segment 3: Brien Lundin, Founder of the New Orleans Investment Conference and Golden Opportunities chats about what it will take for gold to attract a buy.
- Segment 4: Round table market wrap with Dr. Richard Postma and Chris Temple of the National Investor.
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Thanks Al, Cory, Richard & Chris! Al you’ve made some comments recently that indicate some angst about your current investment positions; the advice of JP Morgan a century ago to an associate who was nervous about the market still holds true today (and I’m sure you’ve heard it before) – “Sell down to the sleeping level.” Protecting psychological capital is just as important as protecting investment capital.
Power; outstanding comment.
I second Doc’s comment, Power
My two cents worth in a market like this is to respect your stops – even mental stops. And think nothing of whipsaws that result from selling at the wrong time. In the long run, you will be happier for having respected your stop level – or emotional pain threshold.
Agree, Jay
@Power – excellent quote. And your final sentence, absolutely true.
Thanks Skeeta
Ain’t that something!
That’s awful! BUT HE TELLS US THAT EVERYTHING IS ALL RIGHT!
Kind of silly, Mark
What is…………and what happened to my posts?
They appeared to be false and we trashed them.
Thanks AL…You just gave me an idea for a big blockerbuster movie , & a title…A movie along the lines of Conan the Barbarian …”ALL THE THRASHER”…I might get big John Wayne to play the lead.
If you can bring him down from Heaven, I will fly over to visit with you!
AL…Whats he doing up there..auditioning for a part in the second coming !!!
You never know!
Hi AL…How are you & the family these days ?…You do know i’m just messing around.
ALL should be AL.
* The average 401k has lost $7,500 since the beginning of the year! -ABC NEWS
Wow!
Mark, I scaled back my Market exposure from 80% to 0 over the past 2 years in my TSP. Knew this was coming. I had 4% exposure up until Monday when I was down 5% on my 4%. That was my bail zone.
Jason, sounds like a good plan to me! I been got out………..but I’m still long the dollar
and I still own Amazon as well as physical gold and silver! So play it safe, it’s about to get real ugly!
Wow, thanks Mark
Hi Doc,
Thanks again for you 401 K advice! I did get out of most of my stock positions early this week. One question I was looking UNFI a natual food company and the stock got killed last year. Can you tell me what you technicals are telling you on that stock.
Regards Alan.
Alan, I went all fed bonds in my TSP on Monday.
Jason, seems like a safer bet for now 🙂 I have some exposure in bonds as well.
Alan, UNFI technically took out the 200 week MA months ago and now is just about ready to sit on the 200 month MA and the odds are very good that pricing will take it out. If it does, the pricing of this stock will head toward 15-25.
Mark, we don’t want to hear about the Index unless it drops to zero.
It will.
Dan Oliver’s interview was very interesting as well as being informative. It really gives a good overall perspective on the markets. Thanks Al for the great program!
Thank you for your input also, Jay
Mr Oliver is no expert on Bernie Sanders. He through out rhetoric with no substance. A good place to start would be last weeks article in USA Today where the author discusses Bernie Sanders position on the banking system and corruption. Sanders has positions on Wall Street far beyond any other candidate and should not be summarily blown off with labels.
I personally do not blow him off David.
Rhetoric without substance describes Bernie to a T. Mr. Oliver knows Sanders is no good because he understands economics and knows right from wrong.
Wall Street and the big banks have NEVER feared the left — it’s just opposite. In fact, they are best served by the left’s competition-crushing regulations and taxes. Ever hear about Buffet’s “moat?” Sure, a few companies earn their moat in the marketplace but most simply buy one — and no one delivers like a well-greased lefty politician (many of whom are RINOs, btw).
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/96587-ron-paul-says-bernie-sanders-qsold-outq-on-fed-amendment
Glass Steagall. Gone. Various other restrictions on Wall Street under Bush. Gone. Goldman throughout the Administrative branch for 20 years. Citizens United destroyed the Supreme Court by the 5 conservatives. Buy the candidate us now the law. Karl Rove spin and deception is the rule. Your claims are false and misguided. The neocon oligarchs do not vote liberal. Misinformation and corruption has to recognized for what it is and it isn’t Sanders.
David, I certainly appreciate you views.
Sanders is definitely an interesting man who is strong in his beliefs. I also appreciate his lack of anger. Certainly a far better choice than Clinton.
What is your opinion of Mr Biden?
Al. I do not trust Biden to be any different than Clinton, Bush or Obama. Golden/CITI/JPM has been in the middle of all their Administrations with Biden sitting just outside the door for 7 years. No matter who becomes the nominees, I hope they have the guts to say there will be no Wall Street bankers in key positions. We have had enough Rubens, Summers, Paulsons, Geithner’s, Lews.. Etc. Need also to get Wall Street out of the regulaors (SEC/Justice/CFTC, etc)…So far only one candidate to consider as Rand Paul fades out. Biden can’t do anything but perpetuate the transfer of wealth and further destruction of the US and its Constitution.
I knew you weren’t interested in facts. I really wish people like you would surprise me for a change.
Bill Clinton defends repeal of Glass-Steagall
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/250838-bill-clinton-defends-repeal-of-glass-steagall
More government = more theft = more left. Sorry David, the neo cons are economic lefties.
Neither the Ds nor the Rs could care less about violating any of your rights. Guy’s like Bernie would cause the most harm to those who earned their money and provided jobs while doing so. He is no threat whatsoever to Wall Street’s elite. If he were, the media would treat him the way they treated Ron Paul. Think about it.
The masses are too lazy to figure out that the actions of the two parties are far more alike than the silly rhetoric leads them to believe.
I just love how the left calls society’s best and brightest greedy while the ignoramuses are the ones doing all the stealing. No one should call them liberals because they are not for freedom; they are totalitarian in all they do. How does anyone over twelve years of age not see that more government robs prosperity from society?
Clinton and Robert Ruben of CITI got rid of Glass steagall and Clinton played dumb ever since. Cheney and Bush got rid of the rest and Obama stayed two faced and carried out the destruction. Obama with his over rides to the Constitution, preventing criminal prosecutions, preemptive strikes, torture, drone assasinations, and ongoing transfer of wealth is just another fascist working for the oligarchs.
If you care about the facts, give them a try. You can start here:
Good point, David. On Sanders I agree with you more than I do with Oliver.
David – Matthew below is correct: the banks support left wing candidates for a reason. The way to rid us of the banking oligopoly is not by taxing “the rich” (e.g., in 1974 Sanders proposed a 100% marginal tax rate and he refuses to disclose his current proposed number other than to say it will be less than 90%), but to return to sound money.
Not much change for the PMs on the COT report last week.
I think I heard Cashin on cnbc say that the actual jobs created were 11,000 and the rest was just a seasonal adjustment.
That is correct Paul.
Paul Craig Roberts always picks apart the jobs report:
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/01/08/another-fabricated-jobs-report-paul-craig-roberts-2/
Right. In any case, if the alleged booming jobs market was 1. legit and 2. accompanied by wage growth, most all the other economic measures would be healthy. As we saw again dramatically this past week, they are anything but.
Great point Chris.
Re: Seg.3
Seven years from gold’s October 2008 low is October 2015. The 2001 low happened 7.5 years earlier so if we get a repeat of that period between lows, gold will bottom around April, 2016.
Does anyone think there will be a complete H&S pattern for the general markets before the next he decline?
For example, the NASDAQ would have a 3-4 week rise to re-test the 4900-5000 area, then back down to thee neckline (4500-4600), then finally down to the 3900-4000 level to complete the reversal pattern?
The S&P version would look something like this:
http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-15-at-11.47.18-AM.png
Brian, I’m focused on the much bigger one in play. The neckline was broken on an intraday basis last week and on a closing basis the week before (green neckline).
Two broken Schiff fork supports:
Excellent chart ! This H&S pattern makes more sense to me. Just goes to show: Timeframe is important.
The size of that Distribution Dome of Doom with a big H&S top embedded in it (18 months+), carries with it some very bearish implications:
1.) a major top is in place;
2.) a protracted bear market is likely;
3.) the bear market low will be even lower than most bears expect.
Good one…”Distribution Dome of Doom” — I might have to borrow that!
Agreed on the size of the dome (rounded top) and the Head and Shoulders pattern for general markets marking a topping pattern.
EX…………gold bounced off 1088………overnight………….lol
NOMI P….at usawatchdog……………..usd…..the thing to watch concerning gold.
Here is a new one………….SGE….might stop publishing how much gold is taken off the market. bullion star report…….Jan 11, 2016
FFM – it’s amazing. I just went to check on the price of Gold in the early morning and it is still $1088. OK I concede it is has definitely been a congestion zone…. 🙂
Matthew, good work targeting it. I felt $1083 was going to be more substantial for a support zone, but it was violated along with $1088 last week. However, $1088 has been a consolidation zone where a sharp move out of it is likely. For the sake of a few mining stocks I hold, I sure hope it is to upside. My thesis was that Gold would rally for January, and it did start off well, but is plateauing…..maybe it still has some legs left to run.
FFM – it’s amazing. I just went to check on the price of Gold in the early morning and it is still $1088. OK I concede it is has definitely been a congestion zone…. 🙂
Matthew, good work targeting it. I felt $1083 was going to be more substantial for a support zone, but it was violated along with $1088 last week. However, $1088 has been a consolidation zone where a sharp move out of it is likely.
For the sake of a few mining stocks I hold, I sure hope it is to upside. My thesis was that Gold would rally for January, and it did start off well, but is plateauing…..maybe it still has some legs left to run.
Hi Guys
Doc,at what level (crude oil) would buy oil stocks for a Bounce,28-24?And can you tell me what youre technicals say about (AOI.ST) also listed in Canada (AOI.TO.)
Thank you
Pete, it appears that AOI will challenge the 1.60 area and in all likelihood that 1.50 area.
Thank you Doc
If it is a rumor, we are going to find out on Jan 21, 2017!
Now that is true.
If Dan Oliver’s economic studies are as slanted as his political comments, hope we never hear them. To call James Webb “only slightly less insane than the rest of the Democrat candidates,” is utterly reprehensible. When we get around to identifying ‘real Americans’, I’d say James Webb will be on the first page of names. For now, Dan Oliver, in my opinion, wouldn’t make a pimple on James Webb’s ass! Hope you guys don’t have to resort to more of his BS in order to make next week’s show.
Terrorist attacks at the Splendid Hotel in Burkina Faso is Close to Iamgolds office.
Thanks Pete, I did not know that.
Fwiw:
The Great Currency Shock of 2016
http://agorafinancial.com/2016/01/13/the-attack-america-never-saw-coming/
Interesting article…. The problems with the US alliance with Saudi Arabia have been highlighted by many, but the thesis in this piece is disturbing because it seems within the realm of probability.
Hillary didn’t do anything criminal that deserves an indictment. Who care which email account she used? Voters don’t care about that. The only people who care are people who don’t like her. The same can be said about Ted Cruz being born in Canada or Obama not having a birth certificate. These are desperate attempts to discredit people based on unimportant issues that speaks nothing about their character or their policies.
I believe that she did break government regulations. P llkm ease show me a credible source that says the opposite.
If you look at the data we are already in a recession in manufacturing.
you guys here are so full of BS
Stop With cutting the postings!
Corey?
Yeah right
I would agree with you on the cutting of the post……….jmho….if , you are going to cut something ………..cut out the peck…peck….peck….
But, OWL, is the head …..of the ……….what should I say……..pecking order……lol
the Baltic dry index has been dropping like a rock which portends more trouble ahead!
FED suspends mark to market rule for energy debt. Not sure what will happen to the redemption of these funds. If people start to panic and sell, how do the funds deal with redemption without mark to market. They could just dry up. Any idea what will happen to the shorts of these funds. What will happen if energy companies need more money as they are having massive losses?
We will look into this closely tomorrow Dragonitr
Dragonite,
Two things.
1) Saw the Zero article, and personally, I don’t see how the FED has a say in mark-to-market… but maybe I’m wrong on that one.
2) Re: redemption of funds, I think you may be mixing things up between listed instruments and simple, direct loans between banks and their energy customers.
My 2 cts.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
I do not either LP G but I am doing a bit of research today as I try and stop caughing
Thanks for the reply. I am not sure how this works. I hope someone can clear this up.
Looks like there will be a few more bankruptcies…….on the way.
GOLD over nite….bounced off 1088……..good sign. Platinum ratio 1.33 and at $815
ooops………….OIL UNDER $30….
As per usual,
Thanks for the weekend show fella’s,
Much appreciated,
Cheers.