When will the bottom for commodities be in place?
Doc joins Al and Cory to chat focus on when he thinks the bottom for commodities will be in place. With gold steady today the mining stocks are getting hit which is not a good sign as we move through the week. As for oil, it continues to drag down almost everything.
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WOW
Gold/XAU Ratio – 28.07. It was 3.3 in 2005 I remember.
For short term traders, this is turning out to be another day of eye popping weakness. I am now guessing that this week would be a downer and the market may make a crashette event next week. My short term cycle is pointing down into Jan 28th but sharp down move could shorten that date to early next week.
Hope everyone is well,
For those who missed it, GDX, GDXJ both made new lows today.
Jordan Roy-Byrne had warned at the end of last week “Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown”.
So far, he’s been dead on.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Meanwhile, GLDX would have to fall another 6.5% to make a new low.
Volume is unimpressive.
I see that Intrexon (XON) fell to the 18 buck area very briefly last week before heading back up to over 25 bucks. (Apparently some news on a cancer gene treatment at a conference was responsbile for the spike.).
The biotech etf IBB is at near 52 week lows also.
Doc, do you have any thoughts on biotech stocks at the moment? Are we anywhere near a buying opportunity in this sector do you think?
My off the wall guess is that IBB has another 20% to the downside and it may bottom in May this year.
I will wait for Doc’s reply.
Bio-technology is currently a broken sector as a whole. Technically, there is more pain going forward. I wouldn’t touch the sector unless there are stocks with some unbelievable stories. I’m staying away currently.
I might add that XON will contnue to fall.
Thanks Doc.
Sandstorm Gold Announces Agreement to Acquire 56 Royalties for US$22 Million
VANCOUVER, Jan. 19, 2016
This is a big streaming deal that Sandstorm is working on acquiring from Teck. This moves them into a new realm with more diversification and puts Sandstorm on the map a legitimate player in the streaming business.
Check out the list of who they’ll have royalty or streaming agreements with – Royalty counterparties include Barrick Gold Corporation, Glencore plc (“Glencore”), KGHM Polska Miedz SA, Newmont Mining Corporation (“Newmont”), Kinross Gold Corporation (“Kinross”), Centerra Gold Inc. (“Centerra”), New Gold Inc. and Imperial Metals Corporation…as well as a pipeline of many exploration projects.
Is this why TCK is rising from the $2.50 mark? (I was in hospital for a week so lost touch with a lot of things going on.).
Teck is going to get a cash injection and that will help, but strangely enough a few of the commodity conglomerates were up today at the open and then fell throughout the day.
On BNN they postulated that the Chinese growth just under 7% was the reason for at least some optimism (because there is still growth in the world’s second biggest economy), but this sentiment was tempered with concern because this was China’s lowest growth reading in years.
BOB UK – Are you doing OK now and on the track to healing?
Wishing you a speedy recovery sir.
Ah, that explains it. (Does this mean that TCK is now almost at its bottom???)
On the FTSE this morning all the miners – RIO, BHP, AAL, Glencore, etc, were up about 8% to 10% but they basically gave up most of those gains by the close. Most ended between 1.5% to 2.5% up.
I suspect they all rose for the reason that you said – that China was still growing, although at a slower rate than it has in a long, long time.
I was out cycling and got a sudden sharp stabbing pain in my left temple. Loads of spots before the eyes and my left side went numb for a while. I sat down, waited for the pain to subside for 15 minutes but when I got up the pain returned. This happened a few times.
I got taken in and, over the course of a week, they did a CT Scan and an MRI. They also considered doing a lumbar puncture but eventually decided against that. All my other obs – blood work, cholesterol, blood pressure, sugar levels, etc, came back fine apparently.
The docs were excellent and the scans came back clear. They are not sure what happened and have suggested that it might have been a severe migraine. Apparently you can get a migraine with such symptoms and, bizarrely, the pain can apparently subside when you sit down and return when you stand up. That is what the neurologist said.
I have been home for a few days but feel very weak and a tad anxious but relieved that the scans were fine. I am looking at it positively as I feel that I have had a good check-up. I am 50 next week so I am hoping to make it 🙂
Thanks for the kind thoughts.
Wow. That sounds like a really acute migraine then. When you mentioned your left side went numb it sounded like a stroke for a minute. Well, I’m very happy your scans came back excellent and you’ll keep ticking. 🙂
All the best to you.
Yep, I was scared it was some kind of stroke. Petrified in fact. I have had one sided numbness before, years ago, during a panic attack when I hyperventilated but never had the pain before.
They thought it might have been a bleed on the brain – the doc said not to worry if it was as they do about 3 of those a day – but the scans came back fine. They also were concerned that maybe some artery had a problem, perhaps from over-exertion, but the MRI did not show a problem. Bacterial meningitis was also considered.
It wasn’t the best time of my life but I had excellent doctors investigating me and they instilled confidence. The NHS at its best.
Excelsior,
Very nice! Thanks for the post.
It was mentioned awhile back on the KER that TCK and some of the other big commodity companies wouldn’t survive if commodity prices stay down for any length of time. The only way out for a lot of them would be to sell assets, particularly TCK. It looks like the beginning of survival mode.
Yes sir…. it is Survival Mode for sure.
I’ve posted a fair bit of news on all the asset sales and mergers over the last few months. It has been intensifying with the large commodity companies divesting assets in a big way as they try to manage their towering debt loads. Many mines, resources, royalty streams, and subsidiaries have changed hands the last few months. It’s hard to keep track of who has what assets now.
The industry cleansing washout is finally happening. This is good thing for the longer term.
I keep an eye on South 32 – the BHP Biliton spin-off – and was surprised to read that it is considering bidding to buy one of the companies that Anglo American is selling off.
I would have though, at this time in the economy, that a company like South 32 would be wary of taking on more debt or spending cash to buy up more companies.
Bob UK – I am thinking the same thing about South32. I posted that article when they announced that they were bidding on Anglo American assets. I figured it would be the other way around and that some other Major would acquire South32. Yes, a company of there size could be getting the deal of the century, or the recipe for failure if they can’t manage the debt from a transaction like this.
Here’s that article again on South32 bid for the Anglo American $1 billion niobium and phosphate business in Brazil.
BHP Spinoff South32 Said Interested in $1 Billion Anglo Sale
Jesse Riseborough -January 13, 2016
I am having second thoughts now about South 32 for those very reasons.
Their management may be super sharp or about to make an almighty mistake.
Perhaps they are just going to bid as a means of trying to stop someone else bidding for them? The UK supermarket apparently is interested in another retailer, Argos, but I think that it is just a means of stopping Sainsbury being bought up.
I meant, Sainsbury is bidding for Argos but people have long talked about Sainsbury being a target.
Pretend to want to buy someone else to look stronger than you are as your SP falls? Maybe S32 is doing that?
That’s an interesting idea Bob UK. Some companies may bid on another project (in a bluff) just to keep others off their trail, or from getting bought out themselves. I got the impression South32 was serious about their bid though.
From the article above:
“South32 has a strong balance sheet and will look at acquisition opportunities,” Chief Executive Officer Graham Kerr said in August.
Cheers!
I suppose the other way to look at it is if a company has a strong balance sheet some carpet baggers might try to take advantage of the current low SP to get their hands on the cash – although I thought South 32 had debt albeit a small amount of debt.
By bidding for another company, if you have cash, you again make yourselves unattractive to the carpet baggers.
SAND stock has been taken to the wood shed—I hate to say it but I love it since it’s on my buy list for the future.
I have a small position in Sandstorm that I’ll be adding to in the future. I really have a ton of respect for Nolan Watson the CEO. Check out this older interview below:
Sandstorm Gold defends streaming – Tue, Nov 3, 2015 – Nolan Watson
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=741471
The most recent info (prior to this Sandstorm announcement of acquiring 56 Royalties from Teck) was that they have acquired a portfolio of 73 streams and royalties, of which 14 of the underlying mines are producing.
Here is what their website says in an update today:
Sandstorm has acquired a portfolio of 132 streams and royalties, of which 19 of the underlying mines are producing gold.
YAMANA GOLD INC. – CHAPADA STREAM
PRIMERO MINING CORP – BLACK FOX MINE
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. -SANTA ELENA MINE
METANOR RESOURCES INC. – BACHELOR LAKE MINE
TRUEGOLD MINING INC. -KARMA STREAM
YAMANA GOLD INC. – CERRO MORO STREAM
RAMBLER METALS & MINING PLC – MING MINE
ENTRÉE GOLD INC. – HUGO NORTH EXTENSION AND HERUGA
RIO TINTO PLC – DIAVIK ROYALTY
MARIANA RESOURCES LTD. – HOT MADEN
GLENCORE PLC – HACKETT RIVER
KINROSS GOLD CORP. – LOBO-MARTE
LUNA GOLD CORP. – AURIZONA ROYALTY
GLENCORE PLC – BRACEMAC-MCLEOD ROYALTY
COPPER MOUNTAIN MINING CORP. – COPPER MOUNTAIN
YAMANA GOLD INC. – GUALCAMAYO ROYALTY
NEWMONT MINING CORP. – EMIGRANT SPRINGS ROYALTY
ALAMOS GOLD INC. – AĞI DAĞI AND KIRAZLI
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD – MWS ROYALTY
OREZONE GOLD CORP. – BOMBORÉ ROYALTY
OTHER STREAMS & ROYALTIES
*A net smelter return (NSR) royalty is based on the proceeds that a mining company receives after selling its product to a smelter or refinery.
PROJECT OPERATOR LOCATION TERMS
Producing Bachelor Lake Metanor Resources Canada 1.0% NSR
Sheerness Westmoreland Coal Company Canada 5.0% GRR
Thunder Creek Lake Shore Gold Canada 1.0% NSR
Magmont The Doe Run Resources Corporation USA 1.25% NSR
San Andres Aura Minerals Honduras 1.5% NSR
Sao Francisco Aura Minerals Brazil 1.5% NSR
Koricancha Anthem United Peru 3.3% @ $100/oz
Altintepe Bahar Madencilik Sanayi ve Ticaret Ltd. Turkey 1.5% NSR
Development Ajax KGHM Polska Miedz Canada 1.5% NSR
Bradshaw Gowest Gold Canada 1.0% GSR
HM Claim Kirkland Lake Gold Canada 2.0% NSR
Keno Hill Alexco Resources Corp. Canada 25% NPI
Prairie Creek Canadian Zinc Canada 1.2% NSR
Ruddock Creek Imperial Metals Corporation Canada 1% NSR
Gordon Creek Gordon Creek Energy USA 5.0% GOR
Mt. Hamilton Waterton Global Resource Management USA 2.4% NSR
Los Verdes Minera Alamos Sonora S.A. de C.V. Mexico 2.0% NSR
Coringa Magellan Minerals Brazil 2.5% NSR
Serra Pelada Colossus Minerals Brazil 2.0% NSR
Don Nicolas CIMINAS Argentina $3/oz up to $2M
Burhaniye Tumad Madencilik Sanayi Ticaret Turkey 2.0% NSR
Öksüt Centerra Gold Inc. Turkey 0.5%-1.5% NSR
Buffelsfontein Village Main Reef South Africa 1.0% NSR
Advanced Exploration Barry Metanor Resources Canada 0.5%-1.0% NSR
Blende Blind Creek Resources Canada 2.0% NSR
Box Fortune Bay Corp Canada 1.5% NSR
Eastern Extension BonTerra Resources Canada 1.0% NSR
Fostung Duke Mountain Resources Canada 1.0% NSR
Hart Northern Sun Mining Canada 1.0% NSR
Homestake Ridge Homestake Resource Corporation Canada 2.0% NSR
KM61 Stockport Exploration Canada 0.25% NSR
Mel Silver Range Resources Canada 1.0% NSR
Roc d’Or East Extension Integra Gold Canada 2.0% NSR
Spectrum Skeena Resources Canada 1.65% NSR
Ann Mason Entrée Gold USA 0.4% NSR
Railroad Gold Standard Ventures Corporation USA 3.0% NSR
Whistler Brazil Resources Inc. USA 2.0% NPI
Paul Isnard Columbus Gold/Nordgold French Guiana 1.0% NSR
Agua Rica Yamana Gold Argentina 0.25% NSR
Karaagac Anadolu Export Maden Sanayi ve Ticaret Turkey 1.5% NSR
Tac/Corak Cengiz Kaya Turkey 1.5%-2% NSR
Tavsan (Red Rabbit) Ariana Resources PLC Turkey 2.0% NSR
Akorade Castle Peak Mining Ghana 1.0% NSR
Exploration Abitibi/Sarah Lake Commander Resources Ltd. Canada 1.0% NSR
Argosy Great Panther Silver Canada 0.5% NSR
Bermuda Stillwater Mining Canada 0.5% NSR
Big Bulk LCT Holdings Inc. Canada 1.5% NSR
Butterfly Lake North Arrow Minerals Inc. Canada 0.71% GOR
Broulan Reef Goldcorp/Premier Gold Canada 2.0% NSR
Cadillac Break Alexandria Minerals Canada 1.0% NSR
Caramelia Huakan International Mining Inc. Canada 2.0% NSR
CT Kreft Resources Ltd. Canada 0.75% NSR
East My-Ritt Yamana Gold Canada 0.5% NSR
Eureka Pacific Ridge Exploration Canada 1.0% NSR
Fly Lake Rubicon Minerals Canada 1.5% NSR
Gold Cap Pacific Ridge Exploration Canada 1.0% NSR
Grenville Kaminak Gold Canada 1.0% NSR
Hudson-Patricia Rubicon Minerals Canada 1.5% NSR
Iron Horse Sokoman Iron Canada 1.0% GSR
Justin/Hit Aben Resources Canada 2.0% NSR
Lorrain Canadian Silver Hunter Inc. Canada 2.0% NSR
Mainstreet Beaufield Resources Inc. Canada 1.2% NSR
New Afton New Gold Inc. Canada 2.0% NSR
Newman Madsen Pure Gold Mining Canada 0.5% NSR
Pickle Crow PC Gold Canada 0.5% NSR
Rossland Rossland Resources Inc. Canada 1%-2% NSR
Seymour Lake Canadian Copper Core/Stockport Exploration Canada 1.5% NSR
Skinner Sabina Gold Canada 7.0% NPI
Slate Lake Rubicon Minerals Canada 1.5% NSR
Snip 2 Colorado Resources Ltd. Canada 2.0% NSR
Summit Lake Rainy Mountain Royalty Corp. Canada 1.9% NSR
Ten Mile Creek Bernie Kreft Canada 1.5% NSR
Tsacha Independence Gold Corp. Canada 2.0% NSR
Waconichi Northern Superior Resources Canada 1.0% NSR
Wernecke Newmont Mining/Kiska Metals Canada 0.8% NSR
Windfall Lake Oban Mining Canada 0.5%-1.0% NSR
Wrigley Devonian Metals Inc. Canada 2.0% NSR
Ashby Alianza Minerals USA 1.0% NSR
Aurora Carlin Resources LLC USA 2.0% NSR
Bellview Alianza Minerals USA 0.5% NSR
Big W Barrick Gold U.S. Inc. USA 3.0% NSR
Cabin Creek McEwen Mining Inc. USA 10% NPI
Cherry Creek McEwen Mining Inc. USA 1.5% GOR
Columbia Alianza Minerals USA 1.0% NSR
East Walker Alianza Minerals USA 1.0% NSR
Fri Gold Alianza Minerals USA 0.5% NSR
Horsethief Alianza Minerals USA 1.0% NSR
Kobeh Alianza Minerals USA 0.5% NSR
Lichen Silver Phoenix Resources Inc. USA 2.0% NSR
Rain Premier Gold/ Newmont Mining USA 1.5% NSR
Red Ridge McEwen Mining USA 3.0% NSR
Shotgun TNR Gold Corp. USA 5.0% NPI
Van Stone Equinox Resources (WASH), Inc. USA 1.5% NSR
Cerro Prieto Goldgroup Mining Mexico 2.0% NSR
Camporo First Point Minerals Honduras 0.4%-1.2% NSR
Amapari Mineracao Amapari S.A. Brazil 3.0% NPI
Cuiu Cuiu Magellan Minerals Brazil 1.0% NSR
Rio Novo South Rio Minas Mineracao S.A. Brazil 0.75% NSR
Sao Vicente Aura Minerals Brazil 1.5% NSR
Gatita Compania Minera Potosi S.A. Peru 1% NSR
Huajoto Alturas Minerals Corp. Peru 0.5%-1% NSR
Mario Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. Peru 2.0% NSR
Arcas Altius Minerals Corporation Chile 1.0% NSR
Celeste Coro Mining Corp. Chile 2.0% NSR
Pampa Lina Sierra Gorda Sociedad Contractual Minera Chile 0.3% NSR
Kiskama Talga Resources Ltd. Sweden 1.0% NSR
Masugnsbyn Talga Resources Ltd. Sweden 1.0% NSR
Vittangi Talga Resources Ltd. Sweden 1.0% NSR
Hasandagi Newmont Mining Corporation Turkey 2.0% NSR
Muratdagi Kenz Enerji ve Madencilik San. Ve Tic A.S. Turkey 2.0% NSR
Tombul Elazig Baskil Madencilik A.S. Turkey 2.0% NSR
Sorry that list didn’t look quite that long when I was building it. Anyway, you can see that Sandstorm Gold (SAND) does have a few irons in the fire, so to speak.
today….they were testing your number 1083……….but, it looks like 1088 is going to win…………….lol………….hope all is well……………………the claw
Yes, I saw that. I did post this yesterday but you may not have seen it:
On January 18, 2016 at 11:51 pm,
Excelsior says:
“FFM – it’s amazing. I just went to check on the price of Gold in the early morning and it is still $1088. OK I concede it is has definitely been a congestion zone…. 🙂
Matthew, good work targeting it. I felt $1083 was going to be more substantial for a support zone, but it was violated along with $1088 last week. However, $1088 has been a consolidation zone where a sharp move out of it is likely.”
Just wanted you to know I was think about your number …..which was trying to retrace to your number today. I should have said…”.it looks like 1088 is going to win again”…..lol
think to thinking……
I’m thinking now it is time for Gold to make up it’s mind… (breakout or breakdown).
Agree…….
OIL…………..28.38……down 1.04
Trans Mountain pipeline battle set for NEB hearing today
CBC News | January 19, 2016
http://www.mining.com/web/trans-mountain-pipeline-battle-set-for-neb-hearing-today/
Mixed bag on the miners…….
I would say that the overall direction from Miners is decidedly down today…..
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
12.41 Down 0.68(5.16%) 2:59PM EST
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
17.08 Down 0.87(4.85%) 3:00PM EST
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM)
11.26 Down 0.80(6.63%) 2:56PM EST
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)
17.26 Down 1.28(6.90%) 2:41PM EST
Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GLDX)
14.63 Down 1.38(8.62%) 2:58PM EST
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)
15.29 Down 1.01(6.21%) 3:00PM EST
I was checking the miners on kitco, and there looked to be a mixed bag at the time , but, your list of ETF’s ,does show a down direction. With your list of ETFs, it might suggest that stock selection is now very important. …..just thinking……….ootb
Frank, stock selection at this point in time is the only way to go.
Yes FFM CCF – You hit the nail on the head. Stock selection is now crucial, as the times to just throw money in an index fund for the general stocks, or an ETF in Miners has been over for the last year or so. Even within the winning stocks over 2015, many of them had a big surge, and then pulled back meaningfully, so buying and holding has been treacherous. In this environment, getting in, getting a return, and getting out using technical indicators has been much more rewarding.
There will be a time where the general trend bottoms in PMs, and then commodities, where an investor could just bet on a sector, but for now, it is each individual company evaluated on their own merits in Gold/Silver, Oil, Uranium, Copper, Base Metals, Agriculture, etc…. Same for stocks in the general markets.
I do still like doing short duration trades on the mining ETFs though, but prefer the 3x leveraged ones like JNUG, JDST for the short term trades with more movement.
I also think that if a longer term investor starting dollar cost averaging into solid ETFs like GDX, GDXJ, SGDM, SGDJ, GLDX, SIL, SILJ, TGLDX that over the longer term 2-4 years they’ll be sitting pretty. Up above I was referring to a shorter term time horizon.
EX AND DOC………thanks for the reply.. and thoughts.
First Majestic Produces 16.1M Silver Eqv. Oz in 2015 (4.8M Silver Eqv. Oz in Q4); Announces 2016 Production Outlook and Cost Guidance
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Jan. 19, 2016)
IAMGOLD Meets Production and Cost Guidance for 2015 and Lowers Cost Guidance for 2016
TORONTO, Jan. 19, 2016
I had an order filled for AXU as it plunged a few minutes ago. It now has a short sale restriction (SSR).
Had a few other orders filled, too.
Wow. That was quite a dip in AXU today.
Matthew,
That was a great read re James Madison.
Thanks
Especially, where it says……1781 ,1000 continental dollars was equal to one gold dollar.
Al,
We’ll get a bottom some time this year, but the bubble phase should take at least a couple of years to complete once the bottom is in.
So don’t expect the big blowoff until late 2017 or early 2018 at the earliest.
This is the move that stretches the rubber band far to the downside to setup the slingshot move back in the other direction. Markets have to have that before a bubble can start.
As an example look at oil in early 2007, and stocks in 1998.
Doc
I’m in agreement with you on gold and the stocks. There moving down very aggressively here and I believe like you mention that a technical bounce will come as well as oil stocks but it will be a cat bounce into spring/summer and then the final push down into my long awaited fall. Election year will put a floor in gold either fall 2016 or first quarter 2017. Get ready to see closures/ bankruptcies and m&a. Final leg down sounds good to me.
Well, as of right now the conventional markets can’t hold its morning’s gains. That as got to be discouraging for the bull.s
It would seem this market has a lot further to fall even if it goes up in the short to mid term.
But then again, what do I know. When I think I know the direction of markets I just read things like this. There are people with a lot more resources than I have and who are a lot smarter than I am who can’t get it right.
doc
Matthew
Brian
Bill
Shad
Bird
From a monthly perspective, what does the chart say to you regarding future of gold price and oil price? Further down or bottoms are in?
My 2 cents on Oil is we are starting to grind along the bottom channel for prices where cuts in production will start showing up (however Iran is also entering the marketplace again canceling out some of those cuts in production).
My prediction for Oil in 2016 is for the grind from the $27-$42 region to stretch out for a while, putting tons of companies out of business, exacerbating debt burdens, and eventually spilling over into a contagion effect in the financial sector with over exposure to energy. It will be painful to watch, as the market cleans house. It will NOT be a quick snap-back rally in Oil (not V-Shaped) in my opinion because there is too much supply to mop up. It will be an irregular U-shaped Oil recovery.
Same for Gold on the slow grinding bottom and recovery for 2016. We’ve been discussing for days that $1088 seems to be a congestion and consolidation zone, and Gold will breakout hard in one direction from here. Damn, I just checked and we’re at $1088 again. Will Gold breakout or breakdown? It’s a coin toss for me, but I have positions on in a few miners to capitalize if it is a break out.
Anyone have any oil stocks?
One idea is what LPG mentioned in prior editorials. He really got me thinking when he mentioned playing some of the oil producing countries who’s economies are closely tied, and will have relief rallies when Oil does bottom, (like UAE, QAT, KSA, etc….)
As for Oil I pretty much just use (UWTI) and (DWTI) to trade long or short spot pricing because they are leveraged and small moves in the spot price move them enough to get in and get out. I know other prefer the more tame (USO).
If you like Oil-related ETFs: (XLE) remains my favorite, but I also trade (XOP) and (OIH), because I feel like those 3 hit most areas of the Oil patch. However there other other good Oil ETFs worth mentioning: (JJE), (DBE), (DIG), (GUSH), (OIL), (UCO)
As mentioned up above, in this blog, I really feel like now is the time for stock picking for the best returns. Here is a list of individual Oil-related companies I’m watching and trying to pick a handful of winners from the bunch.
Advantage Oil & Gas, PrairieSky Royalty, Raging River, Whitecap Resources, Peyto Exp & Dev, Bonterra Energy, Crescent Point, Delphi Energy, Gibson Energy, Enbridge, Precision Drilling, Torc Oil, Trican, Encana, Conch Resources, Pinoneer Natural Resources, Imperial Oil, Weatherford Int’l, Bolder Energy, Energy Transfer Partners, Marquee, Pioneer Energy, Husky Energy, Athabasca Oil, Renegade Petro, Cequence Energy, Pan Orient Energy, Comstock Resources, Divergent Energy, and Cameron (who is currently acquiring Schlumberg ….another company I was watching).
Let me know if you have any thoughts on (producers, oil services, pipeline, storage, etc…) that should be on the radar.
Best of luck to you in your investing.
Shad and Matthew
Thanks for your well thought out responses! Keep up the great work you guys do as well as the rest in here. It’s truly a treat to read what most of you post in here. There is no other site that compares and brings me the latest daily.
Thanks Glenfidish.
P.S. – 2 more Oil companies I’m adding to the watch list that just cut their dividends but are worth keeping an eye on for the bottoming in Oil pricing this year are Cenovus Energy and Freehold Royalties.
Husky, Whitecap slash spending to cope with oil rout
Jeffrey Jones, The Globe and Mail
7:17 PM, E.T. | January 19, 2016
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/1/19/Husky-Whitecap-slash-spending-to-cope-with-oil-rout.aspx
Thanks Excelsior
CS
Glad to share CS. I guess I’m adding on 2 more oil companies to that list to dissect:
Southwestern Energy and Antero Resources.
Please let me know if there are any oil producers, explorers, services, pipeline, or related companies that you think may have interesting dynamics.
Excelsior..& everyone else. This low oil price is having a huge impact on the fortunes of the top 1%, you can be sure “THEY” are not happy bunnies at the moment so they are thinking how are we going to get the price back up.
Perhaps if we put the pressure on Turkey to stop them buying the Issis oil on the cheap, & then the icing on the cake would be to stir up a war between Iran & Saudi Arabia…..Sorry folks just speculation with an open mind.
IrishTony – nothing would surprise me at this point. There are now chinks in the armor.
Ex. As a foot note…As you may know China’s Pres. XI’S is on a three day visit to the region, first port of call Saudi..then Egypt..then Iran…Very telling Saudi first to find out their intentions , & then onto Iran to tip them off…IMO China will side with Iran, alongside Russia……& so shall the first be last , & the last be first.
I hate to say it but the downtrend still has plenty of strength on the monthly chart. On the bright side, the downtrend is weak and getting weaker on weekly chart. Gold could surprise a few bears and skeptical bulls over the next 2-3 months. How it performs in that time, if it does rally, will tell us a lot about the likelihood of a new low in being in our future.
The daily chart is mixed:
Look at that volume. The bulls were able to hold the 55 day EMA…
And the 10 week and 600 week EMAs:
As long as gold can close January above the 150 month EMA, I won’t worry too much about a trip to the 200 month EMA.
Hey Shad, that 3 month EMA is pretty close to your number.
Good charts and insights Matthew. I am also very interested in how January will close and how this will influence the longer term charts. We’ll see how it goes…….
Jordan Roy-Byrne says dollar has to continue up before PM’s reach their final bottom. Scroll down on SGT.
http://sgtreport.com/page/2/
Based in the tear that Harmony Gold was on since early December, and now it’s rolling over. It could be a good bell weather stock to judge the bottom in these mining stocks. This could be it’s last big run down.
Jordan RB seems to be agreeing with Doc, there are a few people thinking this way now.
Market rule #9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
Doc and Jordan Roy-Byrne and often Clive Maund have been in agreement for about a year and half now. They are my 3 barometers for the general price of Gold, Oil, USD, general markets.
Ex…IMO the DOC is the man to listen to….He knows what’s best for his patents .
Yes, whenever I disregard the Doc’s advice, I get into trouble.
Bird…Heavy…Frankie…etz…If you are still reading the site, I hope you are all well.
ditto
Well put Mr Irish!
Little chance left on any further rate hikes at least until the market is above 2080. Oil has the market by the balls.
Paul…They may have to cancel any further rate rises , instead they may have to bring back QE.(if they ever stopped ) to bail out to big to fail …”OIL”.
If I was a gambler & had the spare cash….I would go long oil, now.
I’ll admit that I did take out a small speculative gamble on oil today near the close and bought some UWTI. If Oil hits $27 I’ll add some more. Just looking for a little bounce into the low $30’s to sell it back.
I bought back my big position in BP today after selling last week.
seems we’re crashing on all fronts on overnite futures. ‘guess the fed manipulators just don[t care this time round
They’re out of bullets! Live Greg Hunter interview on Coast to Coast AM, right now on all of this mess!
**** DOOMSDAY AHEAD FOR ASIAN MARKETS AND THE DOW AS MARKETS TUMBLE!
Japan Nikkei down over 3% as Down Futures fall 255 points!
** MANY PEOPLE / INVESTORS WILL BE ANGRY WHEN THEY WAKE UP IN THE MORNING!
Nikkei and Hong Kong markets down near 4% as well as Dow Futures down 300 points again!
WE KNEW THIS WAS COMING…………THERE WAS WARNINGS!
* All European markets down big! Dow Futures now down 358 pts!
Topic’s market crushed, also down almost 4%………you are going to see a huge rise in the VIX when this market opens in the morning!
Looks like gold and silver are a safe haven right now!
* Like Obama…..Davos members all saying that the global economy is alright!
Are any of them watching the news right now!
Come-Come Mark….Did you think they were going to tell the truth , for a change.
THE WORLD OF SPIN……………DAVOS …world leaders into the NWO……what a joke.
Imo US dollar has a date with 1.02-1.05 very long term resistance trend line that has formed a head and shoulders formation. Will it complete by summer? Fall? I’m willing to say that I feel strongly enough, that once this pattern tops and dollar reverses, then and only then will gold release itself from the misery it has put many in for these past 4+ years. It’s always been about the dollar and safe haven has not yet completely abandoned it. The key is the dollar! I thought I would bring this up since there has not been much talk about it.
1.02 is the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the 2001 – 2011 move down. I thought it was going to happen in Q1 last year when the dollar’s strength/momentum were very high. At this point, I’m not sure it can make it there before correcting.
Since this global stock selloff began at the beginning of 2016, the USD is up about .33% while gold is up almost 4%. This is significant considering the environment.
Monthly USD:
Dollar strength is getting sold lately. This chart of UUP that I posted last week shows what I mean:
Even today, the dollar is down along with stocks… again.
Perhaps a new, short-term pattern is emerging.
With the general markets down again, the mid-tier producers I own are ll doing well this morning (non-prodcuers and explorers, not so much)
Claude + 0.0 %
Kirkland Lake + 3.52 %
Lake Shore + 3.2 %
Klondex + 1.6 %
Richmont + 2.9 %
Klondex Announces 2015 Production of ~128,000 GEOs;
2016 Production Guidance Increased 16% from Prior Year
Kirkland Lake Gold Announces Results of Its Special Meeting of Shareholders Voting in Favour of Transaction With St Andrew Goldfields Ltd.
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – Jan. 19, 2016)
Kirkland Lake Gold Reports Additional Results from Its 2015 Regional Exploration Program East of the SMC
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwired – Jan. 19, 2016)
For the record, I am not sure this M&A was such a great move, at this time (with depressed gold prices)
Yes, it is a difficult time to do anything with the metal prices under such pressure; but that may be the exact reason why St. Andrew Goldfields was willing to approve the merger.
Wicked strange gold chart for past hour. Multi-testing the 1100. Maybe we see a short-covering rally that breaks 1110?
In another example why gold is proven to be HATED, there have been NO MSM articles in 2016 that give gold credit as the most stable investment, so far, in 2016.
Here sheeple, sheeple, sheeple …. come over here … see the pretty shiney thingy?
Lol… Are you a Junior Mogambo Ranger, too? 🙂
I used to read his articles years ago; I di dnt know he was still writing. Love the humor.
Well, if something is going to happen with gold it will happen now @ 11:16 EST
I think something is happening ……………up $15…gold that is……….retest 1111
Wouldn’t it be fantastic if $1111 goes down in history as the exact moment gold started it’s new bull market. I’m a Spinal Tap fan.
Ok, I agree………gold now up $20……
1106
against……loonie Canadian………….up $31
The world worm has turned…………other countries are headed into gold.
Doc, are there any reasonable explanations for this? Silver is having a pretty good day, gold is flat, but the mining stocks are down anywhere from 5 to 10%. Yet another capitulation day for the miners.