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Trends in the Markets – Hour 1

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January 23, 2016

Hour 1: 

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Discussion
87 Comments
    Jan 23, 2016 23:09 AM

    Thanks for the weekend show as usual guys, much appreciated.
    Re. Segment 3 though,
    You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear,
    Nor can you polish a turd.
    Sorry, but this guy has called more bottoms in the metals than you’d see at a nudist colony.
    His commentary is a waste of your resources imo.
    Cheers.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:17 AM

      A lot of folks really like Craig.

      My opinion? To each his own.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:27 AM

      “This guy” did not call a bottom in Segment 3. He set out a series of conditions upon which may indicate direction based on future events. The PM markets have not been part of the Feds stock market bubble and may act in opposition to the general markets. However, when the HFT algos seem to act off the currency markets and the actions of the BOJ in purchasing US dollars (moving the US/yen) the very often it is that rationship that moves the metals (algos) amd not fundamentals. “This guy” said to watch carefully how markets play out in the near future to start recognizing direction with more confidence.

        Jan 23, 2016 23:32 PM

        “This guy”….David, has been calling mumerous bottoms in metals for years,
        All of which have been a disaster. Have you forgotten?
        You can choose to ignore them if you decide to? I’m not fussed.
        I just shake my head at what a waste of KER’s resources are giving “this guy” any airtime whatsoever.
        But to each their own.

        Here’s Turd from a few years ago….after yet another metals bottom call gone sour….enjoy David !
        Cheers.

        http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q-6w8nZ-0sk

          Jan 23, 2016 23:14 PM

          Funny stuff indeed isn’t it David ?
          Silver has shed what?…..about a 1/3rd since then?
          You may also want to revisit his calls above those levels too.
          Its hilarious.
          Like watching a ping pong machine where you start & watch the metal ball bounce all the way down with no control at all of the flippers at the bottom
          Whats even funnier….is people actually pay him to read/interact with that cr@p.

          Congrats to Turd….he has worked out how to financially profit from suckers….& the goldbug market is a cash cow when it comes to them.

            Jan 23, 2016 23:25 PM

            MOOOOOOO !

            Jan 23, 2016 23:28 PM

            Line up milk cows…..its milking time yet again.

          Jan 23, 2016 23:18 PM

          Hello David?
          LOL 🙂

    Jan 23, 2016 23:47 AM

    You sound like Mark Skeeta!! lol, A

      Jan 23, 2016 23:00 AM

      You are wasting your provocative single typing finger with statements like that Rev….but anyhoo.
      You can kneel & worship as one of the Turd’s metal followers if you want?
      I’m just saying he has been wrong on his bottom calls in metals ALL the way down….& its a long way down now Rev !!
      Some silly bugs still listen to him.
      Was Reverend Jim Jones a goldbug?….he led just as many to a slaughter too.

      Jan 24, 2016 24:55 AM

      Where’s Dark Purple Haze? He was an old TF metals subscriber that did some non stop bashing last time Craig was interviewed. Craig’s the first one to recognize that the Yen/Gold HFT algo’s are used to manage the gold price. The wrong calls are a little long in the tooth.

      His calls have been pretty consistent over the last few years. T/A goes so far in a rigged market. If they had let the market do what it was suppose to do, the banks would have been smaller and the economy would have been on better footing going forward. Now Europe has to realize they have been sold out, to keep some un-elected finance cronies employed.

      Now we wait for the next bubble to collapse, while the business cycle plays out.

    Jan 23, 2016 23:42 AM

    O come now Skeet I’m only having fun…Jim Jones was a real turd and on that we’re both agreed!

      Jan 23, 2016 23:19 AM

      Thanks Skeeta and Reverend.

      The critical thing, in my mind, is live and let live. I say listen to all and believe what you believe is right.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:40 AM

      Funny…Jim Jones was born in INDIANA……….and ran out of town……….lol

      Jan 23, 2016 23:14 PM

      Yes Jim Jones was a real turd Rev,
      My Dad’s cousin was one of his victims.

      ….sad how people look to guru’s sometimes

      Look no further than the goldbug faithful.
      *chuckle*

    Jan 23, 2016 23:46 AM

    Great show and thanks for having on Craig Hemkey!

      Jan 23, 2016 23:32 AM

      Ha ha ha !!

    Jan 23, 2016 23:52 AM

    Well said Mark. Let’s accentuate the positive. For my money Jeff Pontius and David Morgan are consistently valuable contributors.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:57 AM

      Just don’t have on Bo Pony………….what a waste of time!

        Jan 23, 2016 23:20 AM

        Notice that he has not been on for over a year.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:24 AM

      These guys are the lifeblood of the ‘bugs, without them where would the hope be? Sooner or later, like a stopped clock, they will be right again. (if they live that long).

        Jan 23, 2016 23:58 AM

        ditto

          Jan 23, 2016 23:21 AM

          Bobby, of course, I agree with both you and Frank.

            Jan 23, 2016 23:47 PM

            Yes Bobby,
            And they will all claim that they called the final low too,
            Despite the fact they called many final bottoms all the way down numerous times.

            *Hello Turd* …*Hello David Morgan*…*Hello Gary* etc
            Notice how they are all paid for their thoughts?

            I’d much rather listen to Doc, Rick & Chris talk off topic about their favourite recipes.

            ….at least you would be guaranteed a decent feed without any BS.
            KER is blessed to have those three !

    Jan 23, 2016 23:12 AM

    Very best to all of you at the Cambridge House Resources show this weekend. Wish I could be there! A

      Jan 23, 2016 23:13 AM

      But Mark, Skeeta LOVES Bo Polny…!!!

        Jan 23, 2016 23:31 AM

        Polny is another false idol maybe you follow Rev?
        I’d rather sit through & watch a 5 day shellaking at Lord’s than listen to he or Turd’s BS about the bottom of metals.

          Jan 23, 2016 23:37 AM

          No Skeeta I do NOT like Polny. Come on man, chill out a bit!

            Jan 23, 2016 23:24 AM

            I think that you misunderstood Skeeta, Reverend.

        Jan 23, 2016 23:24 AM

        I beg to differ Reverend

          Jan 23, 2016 23:09 AM

          Over what Al….?!

            Jan 23, 2016 23:18 PM

            Probably over me having to sit through a 5 day shellaking at Lord’s Rev, 🙂

            ….whats the bet Al doesn’t even understand what a Test Match is…..LOL.

            Jan 24, 2016 24:47 AM

            Nor would Bo Phoney !!

    Jan 23, 2016 23:40 AM

    *** NEVER BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF ALL PRESIDENTS HAS THIS PRESIDENT OBAMA BEEN GIVING A PASS ON SUCH A FAILING ECONOMY!
    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/22/freight-recession-blamed-on-consumers-and-commodities/

      Jan 23, 2016 23:28 AM

      Needs impeachment and expose the on going corruption within the Federal Government.

    Jan 23, 2016 23:43 AM

    *** THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES TO FALL, NOW AT 354 POINTS!
    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

      Jan 23, 2016 23:47 AM

      Nothing is moving…………only food and medicine!

      It’s the ” Day The Earth Stood Still.”

        Jan 23, 2016 23:48 AM

        All inventories are in, nobody is ordering anything!

          Jan 23, 2016 23:35 AM

          *peck…peck..peck*….chicken little is out of his doomsday bunker again.

            Jan 23, 2016 23:54 AM

            Keep on dreaming and living in that fantasy world of yours Alice because it’s truly a Wonderland.

            Jan 24, 2016 24:57 AM

            Life is great Mark,
            You should try living it once in awhile.
            Theres no need to live life as a bitter doomer looking at the sky waiting for it to fall any moment.
            Count your blessings instead of the Baltic Dry Index,

            ….go on….you know deep down you want to.
            🙂

          Jan 24, 2016 24:47 AM

          Retarded!

            Jan 25, 2016 25:34 AM

            A self description Mark ?

        Jan 23, 2016 23:25 AM

        Where is the one eyed robot?

          Jan 23, 2016 23:36 AM

          good one Big Al. 🙂

            Jan 23, 2016 23:45 AM

            They were supposed to be covering robots and AI at Davos, but the world stock market turmoil and collapse of oil stole the show….

          bb
          Jan 23, 2016 23:01 AM

          I hear some women love the big one eye.

            Jan 24, 2016 24:25 AM

            ….& all this time I thought they only ever cared about the ever diminishing Baltic Dry Index.

            Silly me.

    Jan 23, 2016 23:35 AM

    You’re looking at a tinderbox the likes of which you’ve never seen before’: Gerald Celente merely affirms Bill Holter’s earlier post: We’re standing at the gates of hell’.

    http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-1-23-16/

      Jan 23, 2016 23:55 AM

      He’s right!

        Jan 23, 2016 23:10 AM

        Your thoughts Al….

          Jan 24, 2016 24:07 AM

          Celente is a broken record,
          …..& still lives in a turntable world.
          Sad.

    Jan 23, 2016 23:06 AM

    SEG 1………great guest….
    Yamada is spot with past calls.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:18 AM

      Al, Cory, you guys forgot to question Yamada on the pms……………..think pooh…..

      Jan 23, 2016 23:42 AM

      Louise Yamada is great to listen to and is typically spot on.

    Jan 23, 2016 23:36 AM

    COT report for last week—-minimal movement in the short/long contract positions. I believe, the COT report won’t add anything to the prospective movement of the PMs for some period of time going forward.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:12 AM

      They don’t have much………..we know that!

    Jan 23, 2016 23:53 AM

    Al and Cory, Thanks for having Louise Yamada on. I was disappointed you didn’t ask her about gold?

      Jan 23, 2016 23:19 AM

      ditto ……see above comments………………frank

        Jan 23, 2016 23:22 AM

        Frank from Moscow, Sorry to be redundant, didn’t see your comment before posting…

          Jan 23, 2016 23:23 AM

          No problem……I was just agreeing 100% with your comment……..appreciate the reply………cheers…………………….FFM

    Jan 23, 2016 23:20 AM

    Chris, Richard and Cory, Thanks for the discussion. One of the concerns that arose in the global financial crisis of 2008 was whether the seizure in the markets was driven by liquidity or solvency. Perhaps China is in the early stages of those same concerns.

    One of the most amazing statistics to me is that total credit market debt in the US has ballooned by $10 trillion since 2007! Deleveraging? What deleveraging? As Richard has said several times, US financial assets are now deflating (excluding treasury notes and bonds?).

    The Austrian economists all warn that the only way to properly handle a credit bubble is never to allow it to develop…

      Jan 23, 2016 23:00 AM

      Power, you couldn’t be more correct—I believe that US paper assets (excluding treasury notes/bonds) will see a VERY painful deleveraging for 2-3 years unlike the rather quick deleveraging seen in the recession of 2009 when those markets dropped for 11/2 years. The dow/gold ratio is now starting its’ inexorable move down again and will be driven mainly by paper asset depreciation for the first 1-11/2 years. After that period of time PMs should be handed the baton and along with the continual paper asset decline will accelarate the ratio down to our goal of a 2/1 or 1/1 relationship. This should take place over the next 7-10 years.

        Jan 23, 2016 23:54 AM

        Richard, Looking at the Dow to Gold ratio you mentioned, it is still making higher highs and higher lows over the last 12 months (so far anyway). To validate that it’s beginning to roll over we would either want to see a lower low during the current cycle or a lower high at its next peak (referencing the daily chart)? Thanks for sharing.

          Jan 23, 2016 23:13 AM

          Power, the process is starting.

            Jan 23, 2016 23:40 AM

            +1 Doc

            Dow:Gold weekly:

            http://schrts.co/83eyMe

            Jan 23, 2016 23:42 AM

            Watch for a break of the 500 week ema.

            Jan 23, 2016 23:39 PM

            Matthew, correct—-each high will have less vigor to it.

            Jan 25, 2016 25:18 AM

            Richard and Matthew, Aha! The NYSE composite versus the gold price is already making lower highs and lower lows…

            Jan 25, 2016 25:08 AM

            And what a sorry bounce it’s having even versus the dollar:

            http://schrts.co/fzmPJn

            When such a plunge results in THAT, look out below.

    Jan 23, 2016 23:45 AM

    .”Turd Watch” S&P 1920…… gold 1108 break through?

    Jan 23, 2016 23:02 AM

    Germany Lost Track of 600,000 Refugees; Who knows Where they are Now?

    The German government has now admitted it cannot account for 600,000 of the 1.1 million migrants who arrived into the country last year. And people wonder why the borders are closing? Germany has become one giant mess – a transit stop who what purpose? Germany was not equipped to handle these refugees and this is now raising concerns sky-high behind the curtain. Now 600,000 refugees can be anywhere throughout the EU. That is bigger than any army in history. Was Europe just invaded? This is beginning to look like the invasion of the Huns.

    http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01

      Jan 23, 2016 23:06 AM

      600,000 is not to bad, US has 15million Illegals…………………

        Jan 23, 2016 23:03 AM

        The German women aren’t taking too kindly to some of them, wherever they are.

        The mayor of Cologne has summoned police for crisis talks after about 80 women reported sexual assaults and muggings by men on New Year’s Eve.
        The scale of the attacks on women at the city’s central railway station has shocked Germany. About 1,000 drunk and aggressive young men were involved.
        City police chief Wolfgang Albers called it “a completely new dimension of crime”. The men were of Arab or North African appearance, he said.
        Women were also targeted in Hamburg.
        But the Cologne assaults – near the city’s iconic cathedral – were the most serious, German media report. At least one woman was raped, and many were groped.
        Most of the crimes reported to police were robberies. A volunteer policewoman was among those sexually molested.

        http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35231046

          Jan 23, 2016 23:37 AM

          That you for the link Markettofuture.

        Jan 23, 2016 23:29 AM

        16 million that are unaccountable?

    Jan 23, 2016 23:49 AM

    The scary part is in the end Chicken Little was right and vindicated.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:59 AM

      Actually, I think that was the boy who cried wolf. Chicken Little and her friends were all lured to “safety” in Foxy Loxy’s den if I recall correctly.

        Jan 23, 2016 23:13 AM

        Not in the Disney version. Lol

      Jan 23, 2016 23:20 AM

      Cassandra? No one believed her when she “warned the Trojans about the Greeks hiding inside the Trojan Horse, Agamemnon’s death and her own demise at the hands of Aegisthus and Clytemnestra, her mother Hecuba’s fate, Odysseus’s ten year wanderings before returning to his home, and the murder of Aegisthus and Clytemnestra by her children Electra and Orestes.”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

        Jan 23, 2016 23:07 PM

        No one believes Jim Sinclair’s call for gold@50000 either, but he could be right one day.
        Felix Zulauf in the Barron’s roundtable said he would buy gold later this year, but it could fall to 1000 first.

          Jan 23, 2016 23:17 PM

          It’s not as outlandish as it appears. For example, the 263 million ounces of gold held by the U.S. had to be valued at about $475 per ounce in order to match the value of foreign held U.S. debt in Q1, 1980. Gold spiked to nearly twice that level that year. Today, gold would have to trade at about $23,000 per ounce in order to match the value of foreign held U.S. debt. A repeat of the overshoot in 1980 would put gold at close to $40,000 per ounce.

          On the other hand, this example argues against Sinclair’s number:

          At gold’s $850 peak in 1980, the 263 million ounces reached a value equivalent to 58% of the M1 money supply. A repeat of that performance today would put gold at just $6,800 per ounce.

          I happen to think that the value of the U.S. gold reserves relative to foreign held debt is more important than its value relative to M1 but I could be wrong. In fact, I could be wrong about the significance of either example but am still convinced that gold is cheap relative to paper assets in general.

          Of course, if it comes to light, by hook or by crook, that the U.S. doesn’t have the 263 million ounces it claims, then Sinclair’s number could be low.

    PF
    Jan 23, 2016 23:45 PM

    Why do the people at KEReport and the guests like to bash CNBC? I find some of the people on that network like Jim Cramer, Tim Seymour, the Najarian brothers, and Rick Santelli to be quite informative. Even though you can bash CNBC, I’m sure you guys watch it.

      Jan 23, 2016 23:25 PM

      Last watched, 2005

        Jan 24, 2016 24:56 AM

        Do they give you constant Baltic Dry Index updates ?
        Oh the horror…oh the horror if so.
        I can’t take it anymore. ..ahhhh !!
        Life is no longer worth living due to shipping.

        …..”All aboard” Skipper.

    Jan 24, 2016 24:59 PM

    I want to hear Louise say “saucer”. Saucer-shaped market top. Like she said when the DOW/gold ratio went down to around 8.