What type of a bear market are we going to see in the US markets?
Rick Ackerman and Doc kick off today with comments on the US stock markets. They are both in agreement that the markets have entered a bear market and it will be a grinding move down but their time frame is slightly different. We then also relate this bear market to how it will impact the commodities.
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I agree. And where else are you gonna here, “…chopping around with these headless chicken spasms is going to be the new reality for Apple stock.” I agree. Rick tells it like it is even if it makes people feel like this guy.
Apple should lose 50% from the recent peak price. I got out at 123. How many tweaks can they come with on their phones. Eventually you run out of apps and features and the competition matches each advancement. It lost over 50% back when it hit close to the 800 area. I had to buy back my big oil position in the pre-market and it us sharply now.
Good commentary. Can’t disagree with anything said. And Apple cult? I am in the KER cult! 🙂
I think this bear market could turn a whole generation off on ever investing in the conventional markets.
Ebolan, you think the markets being criminal wouldnt be enough to keep them out?
or their lack of cash?
Last night I watched a market comentator showing charts of how much cash is on the sidelines by age.
Older people feel they have no choice, young people see other options.
The exposing of manipulation, libor, screaming of shortages, fines for unethical behavior etc etc
Can ya blame them for being leary?
Al:
Thanks for the early show. Your question to Doc & Rick about the bear that’s coming should be an easy answer for a fundamentalist like yourself. We know it takes time for fundamentals to completely assert themselves. Thinking massive debt levels and the derivative nightmare that will eventually cave in. I believe Doc’s predictions are definitely in our future…….God help us all if Rick’s is anywhere near right.
Nothing has been resolved from the 2008-9 melt down. Debt levels have only gotten worse. Central banks and governments are destroying what’s left of the economy.
With the massive levels of debt how can this possibly be resolved without extreme pain if not a world wide depression worse than the ’30s? The future is this http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/01/27/Photos/ZH/MW-EE034_japan__20160127065302_ZH.jpg?uuid=8516b994-c4ec-11e5-9641-0015c588e0f6
Doc’s 2 to 3 year bear makes perfect sense to me and is not at all a radical call, in my opinion.
For Rick’s case, btw, I think a good case can be made that the three tops of the last 16 years are part of one massive top that could result in a multi decade bear market (complete with convincing cyclical bull markets within, of course).
Can the Dow take back the Fib fan?
I think oil is today’s story.
Has it bottomed or is this another head fake based on rumour and fake news?
Down, down, down, down……..per Rick
Driverless cars……just take a cab.
nobody takes cabs anymore…..they all use Uber or Lyft now….. 🙂
Soon we will just send our holograms or beam ourselves….no oil needed.
Mel Brooks cracks me up.
However, if cabs do have a future, it may be self-driving cabs like “Johnny Cab”
Time to go… short wheel base……cabs……………..
The Governator broke the rules and showed Johnny how to drive that cab….
funny
OK last driverless car video for the day. When this movie came out in 1993 a driverless car with video monitors was pretty out there “sci-fi”….today it is the latest craze.
The future has arrived……
I posted the otherday ….Iran was looking to place some orders with BOEING….along with Airbus……….for what it is worth..
Doc…..The Claw has being saying that for year…concerning the CREDIT…………
Make that years………..
Italian banks are now doing the BAIL INS…..coming to America…. just saying.
Anyone listening to the Jawboning………..is lost for sure………..almost to late.
Great commentary guys………..appreciate……………the Claw
Wow! Rick saying down down Down.. Doc saying a three year slow grind down.. I know it’s going to crash, but for The sake of America, I sure would like to see a big two month washout instead of a slow grind down. The washout makes more sense. But either way, it’s going to take the markets a long time to see these high levels. That ,I do agree for sure!
Great comments today! ( reality )
And while the US markets are crashing, the emerging markets and certain commodities are the place to be…
Certain EMs and commodities have bottomed… !! /-:
Nice bull hammer on Shanghai last night ( – ;
All the BRICS have now bottomed!
So far, the bounce in EEM and FXI have been very mediocre. I have to see how they close this week. Crash is still a possibility, IMO.
Understood, but look at the risk everywhere else. The EMs and industrial commodities were the most beaten up. They can’t go down much further. Too oversold..
There are buy signals on a lot of this stuff ( according to my technicals ) and some are just a frog hair away from a buy.
Based on cycles, I happen to believe that oil can fall further into mid Feb time frame. If so, EEM can go down from here. Going down from ‘too oversold’ condition is like a crash. And that is why I think crash is possible.
I agree about oil. I think it’s going down much further. So is gold and miners.
Gary Savage thinks the gold miners will rally for 5 or 6 weeks.
I like copper, steel, uranium and close on WOOD and LIT.
OK, so we go into a prolonged Depression. That’s just below trend growth, right.
Gentlemen does this report have credibility and significance?
Mark and I, were talking about this last night , from zerohedge article.
Bill Holter , at jdsmineset has mentioned this several times…….but, he has a take on this last plunge….
the amount in inventory…only amounts to about…$169mill(plus or min)……chump change…..Which means……..some might be getting or settling in fiat( gold) paper.
Check these numbers ,because we were discussing that there were 72 tons, not 72,000 ozs…..if there is 1/2 that amount ,then the number is on $80mill….
Just checked at Bill Holter last letter……….he is stating only…..$80mill ……this is really cutting it close……………..Looks like paper settlement by weekend….jmho
COMEX IS OUT …………..will be the next news…………
Dow is down 200 points but the miners I hold, both silver and gold, are all up nicely.
I think this is positive for miners at least for today.
I listen to Doc and Rick both and value their input but predictions are just predictions. Anything could happen at anytime to change or alter the movement in commodities especially the metals. I listen to the commentary for entertainment only. I will hold until the price is right or the crisis is over and then proceed to sell. Wait it out or give it to the estate…
What do you think may happen in the year 2525? Should I buy, hold, or sell? 🙂
You mean… if man is still alive?
You got it.
Oh…that was a good one… ( cheeky )
BTW – Gator, just so you don’t take my sarcasm the wrong way, I was agreeing with your comments about the challenges of long-term predictions for a couple years out. To me that is very difficult to project,l and really is just an entertaining prediction. You can use Monthly charts and go back years and extrapolate out the timing band of cycles (like the 7 year CRB cycle) but a whole lot can change in a heartbeat in this big world.
There are always market shocks and unforeseen elements that can pop in from out of nowhere, and will have everyone chasing their tails.
For example I doubt there were many energy “experts” at $100 oil that would believe we’ve been down trading in the high $20’s and low $30s just 2 years later.
Exc..got it…I find your posts both entertaining and educational..regards…
Thanks. May you have a prosperous rest of the week. Onward and upwards!
Sorry to have to comment on Rick’s AAPL comments re: dissing for a year. I recall several times in 2015 when Rick put a target of 145 on AAPL. Never heard him change the target.
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Mr. Rick: “The direction is down, down, down, DOWN…. this is the beginning of Dark Ages, worse than the Great Depression..”
One can never accuse Mr Rick of being a cuddly teddy bear about this market!
I love this early Rick and Doc. I could get used to it… they put the market in perspective.