The deflationary narrative is still on Rick’s mind
Rick Ackerman continues to feel that deflation including a raising dollar will be a drag on everything. Right now the dollar is moving down but still very much in its trading range and could very well be setting up for a pop higher.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Rick sounds like he’s eating at a restaurant.
It sounds like Rick is eating many times when he has been interviewed in the past. He must be multi-tasking and probably isn’t aware the phone mic is picking up the sounds.
We call it a “Lunch and Learn” 🙂
I’m very appreciative that Rick donates his time to keep us all informed on a daily basis.
He’s a superior technician in many areas of the market.
How can you not love Rick? Especially with epic quotes like, ““…chopping around with these headless chicken spasms is going to be the new reality for Apple stock.”
+1 I love it when Rick gets graphic. Yesterday the general markets were “obscene”.
I’m thinking that while everyone was looking for a capitulation in gold prices or attribute an auspicious price move to a type of cyclical turn, we’ve had a spectacular capitulation in oil. After a 70% move down, a 6% down day followed by a 5% rally only to be followed by a 7% crash all during trading hours. With the capitulation in oil prices after a rebound following a mania blow off, you can expect a downwards skew lasting a couple of years. But gold prices have probably seen the low as oil prices recover and interest rates decline.
I always enjoy your thoughts, analysis, and charts FranSix. Thanks!
I’m not sure we’ve seen the low in Oil or Gold yet, but it was mentioned that the recent dive down in the Oil:Loonie pair in January was at least the short-term and possibly intermediate bottom. They have both bounced as expected since that point. However, that is getting ready to top out soon and reverse.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37870133775
As for Gold, same thing with the double-bottom around $1045.40 and then $1046.80 in December….. It was mentioned that these were an intermediate bottom, and while they hold the possibility of being the Major bottom, it is unlikely IMO.
As for Gold and Oil, yes they are both commodities, and tend to react inversely to the USD, so they are somewhat correlated, but they have different market drivers and fundamental factors. I don’t see Gold and Oil as needing to be correlated in this kind of wacko environment, and often times are not. The Gold:Yen correlation has tracked much closer than Gold:Oil.
Here is the Gold:Yen chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26692953592
This chart is the Gold:Yen:30 Year chart since August of 2015 when the general markets first got hit and it was the shot across the bow on the fear entering the markets.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64329510247
In contrast here is the chart for Gold and OIl for the same period since the August correction. It is not as correlated as the Yen or Long Term Treasuries have been lately.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15980719762
I agree with Fran Six. It is a hallmark of a strong bull market (secular, in this case), to not reach a low that everyone thinks is a no-brainer.
All debt has been deflating in value since 1999 or 2000. From the 30 year UST Bond down to the zero maturity debt that we’re supposed to believe is money.
This is what a big bear market in debt looks like:
The last fours years of action was just a big healthy breather.
The USDX may well be in the early part of a secular bull market, but the dollar in your pocket remains in a secular bear in terms of value/purchasing power. The USDX only tells you how the dollar is doing compared to other countries’ paper fictions; the gold price tells you how the dollar is doing in reality.
The Fed can always destroy the value of the paper it emits. The only questions are at what rate will they choose to do so and by what means.
Good thoughts on debts, the 30 year, USDX purchasing power, and the Fed Fiat paper.
Here in Thailand we have many Iranians. Nice folks who hate their own government. They are NOT arabs. They are Persians. The girls come here to party and love Americans. They love rock and roll and love to party and they are very open to dating or whatever.
So maybe come to Thailand and find your Iranian lover. I have and I like them!
Another misconception that is not reality. But then again this is the middle East. Always full of contridications.
I believe we will soon see the day that when the $usd increases, the rest of the world will recognize the futility of chasing the paper, and will lock in on gold/silver as a last resort. Sept.-Oct will be very interesting.