Big Al and Doc discuss today’s gyrations in the financial markets.
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LOL! Was just thinking that earlier today….hope for a major digger in the miners’ prices over the next few weeks to accumulate some more. After 4+ years of pain wishing for the upside, perhaps it’s getting safer to hope
I think we have called the bottom, by finally wishing the PM stocks would drop.
I am literally laughing out loud !
That’s funny but I can’t join in the hoping. I bought way too much at the lows or very slightly above. I’m looking to trim and rebalance.
Ditto.
I think that all of us are!
Brian, I’m thinking the very same thing.
It is only good if the silver miners survive and recover otherwise you are throwing your money away.
We are starting to crash as I had anticipated. Nasdaq down 152 or 3.3%, S&P now 1876 after it failed to hold the bounce off 1880. Netflix is -8.3% now. I bought back my Vixy but only a small part and it has spiked up. Oil and oil stocks should start to fail soon.
We should be going into the 30’s for the Vix next week and gold will have room to move higher.
I think Gary’s short video today (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1454680642.php) on Goldseek.com was as important a statement he has ever made, not for the technical scheme he embraces (indeed, he only mentioned the fact that the HUI exceeded a prior intermediate high for the first time in 4 years as his chief technical point) but for the mindset change and subsequent technical patterns that will emerge from that change. Technicians of many persuasions have argued their view as the best way to gage markets, what with the dispassionate nature of their discourses. They have argued that manipulation may be real but shouldn’t get in the way of their analysis. But if in the course of a long term manipulation, the various vested interests can hit technical stops and imitate a set of patterns, they can create a self-fulfilling technical landscape which can become a kind of cul-de-sac for technicians. Not that precious metals have not been in a bear market for the last 4-5 years. They have. . .with a vengeance. But if manipulation has exacerbated the technical unfolding of the bear market, then its resolution and reversal might very easily be a correspondingly violent upthrust, consistent with the degree of manipulation that drove prices down in the prior bear market. Flanagan’s service, Gann Global, noted prior technical patterns of nominal new lows in key averages that were resolved by dramatic upthrusts, marking the beginning of new bull markets (and there were degrees of manipulation in those prior gold bear markets, though not as obvious as the most recent). This is what happened, starting on 1/19. 12 trading days later we have the HUI over 40% higher (you didn’t even see that happening in FANG stocks in 2015). Key point here is that many technicians are playing a wait and see game on this really strong move in the miners. So committed are they to their view of 1000 and 850 and lower gold as still possibilities that they cannot come to grips with the possibility that their technical analysis that had them successfully negotiating the bear market may actually blind them to an adjusted set of rules and patterns that come into play when the artifice part of the bear market is removed. This fact is what I believe is central to Gary’s video today, for which I give him much praise. The fundamentals for investing in gold have not changed in the past few years, but the mindset and commitment are changing now.
Great synopsis of Gary’s work today. I’m 5/6 in where I want to be in the pm’s, waiting for the 6×24 monthly MA crossover for Ag or Au. The single most important chart going forward for final confirmation.
Don……….good point on the HUI over 40%
Thanks for that comment Don………..and yes gold is going up!
If this is going to be the bottom,Gary Savage has been THE FIRST to call it.
He could end up in financial history books!
It annoys me intensely that some of the silver miners with larger reserves are mining as much as they are.
Idiots! At these silver prices, they should only be mining as much as is needed to fund continuing exploration and cover basic costs.
Alexco is an interesting story in that … ahem … vein.
Yeup 😮
Can you think of silver play that offers better leverage to the silver price? I can’t.
Nothing wrong with TAHO & SSRI. Nailed that 3.66% yield last month makes me happy in TAHO.
Thanks, I haven’t looked at those two in awhile.
SSRI has over a billion oz of silver in the ground as well as a nice chunk of PVG stock.
Do you think Alexco offers more leverage than Impact Silver?
Owing to its much greater known assets in the ground, yes I do. The same goes for Americas Silver. BUT, I think Impact can beat them both long term due to the enormous potential of the Royal Mines of Zacualpan Silver District.
The vast majority of the property has not been subject to modern mining or exploration techniques and even the old tailings (waste rock) that Impact tested was high grade by today’s standards. In addition, they have catalogued 3,500+ old mine workings -about triple the number they had in 2009. So they are not flying blind by any stretch.
The company has never been so well positioned to take advantage of a rising silver price and, given where we’re at with stocks and bonds, big picture, not to mention the metals and miners themselves, I believe we are in for a spectacular bull market that will eventually lead to IPT getting much more aggressive with its plans. That’s obviously speculation on my part, but either way, there is massive value to be unlocked and I am satisfied that Impact’s management is perfectly capable of doing it.
Using IPT as an example, we can see how this rally differs from the last two and holds much more promise.
Disclosure: I own it.
History of the Royal Mines of Zacualpan Silver District
Yes I was reading about the historic mines recently and almost picked up some Impact today, but my order didn’t get filled. I think there is huge exploration upside for sure, and there are huge number of parallel veins to their other mines at present that could feed things far into the future. I also like they have the new exploration targeting Gold/Copper on the section 4 of their property map.
The other thing Impact is considering is mining their open pit again once the price in Silver comes up just a little bit, which would be a multiplier.
Very cool and thanks for making me take a closer look. It is definitely one of the Silver stocks I am going to own for the longer term.
Cheers!
Thanks for the refresh on Impact Silver, Matthew.
EXK is also cutting silver production this year. Wish PAAS and HL would.
Yeah I saw that Endeavour is cutting production by 25%. That’s substantial.
AL ? Is Chris Temple Looking Ross Beaty Investment in Odin Mining and Exploration in ECUADOR ?
I have no idea, but will certainly ask him.
look at the graph for silver:
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_6.gif
then go to kitco and click on the same graph for gold.
Both have the same drop as New York opens, but have different recoveries.
I interpret the difference in recoveries as different relative shortages of physical metals on the COMEX futures. I would guess gold supply there is running low physically.
CONCERNING GOLD supply………..Bill Holter covered that one about a week ago.
supposedly only $80 mill worth of gold at comex…..or appox. 2.3tons, but, that was a week ago.
I read a commentary by a famous Chinese economist who published many books. He believes that China is challenging US using gold in order to defeat international funds who short China in order to induce capital flight to US. US government appears submissive and a lot of Chinese funds who are betting bearish on China have been hurt lately. Most Chinese and international funds are long dollar and short Yuan. He says this will get them slaughtered.
Dust is going close to zero eventually and they will have to revalue.
DUST TO DUST…………maybe they will go negative …..
I would not buy it just de cause the symbol. It is such a bad luck.
I always enjoy listening to Doc – but I have to say the last time I remember him saying “they aren’t going to go anywhere fast” were his comments about gold and the gold stocks he made in mid-January
everyone needs a little slack Richard, Interesting how quickly everyone is gushing on gold in only the past two weeks. Suspect we roll over another 25 bucks or so higher. Nothing material has changed with gold, The markets have a little downside probably to the 1850 and we then churn again to upper resistance at 1950 or so before another material sell off. Great for traders nightmare for investors,
Doc you shouldnt be so confident in your gold predictions. The total opposite has been happening. When you said gold was going nowhere I shouldve went all in. 950-1100 range bound for 2016. We may not even see your range for the rest of the year. You were bang on with Teranga but definitely not on gold.
Plenty material has changed with gold. The writing is on the wall and has been for a long time. Stocks, bonds and the economy have been topping for a long time while gold has been losing downside strength and the miners have been shifting from weak hands to strong.
Some of the money fleeing conventional assets is sure to notice the only sector that is flying instead of falling and it won’t take much of it to have a huge impact on such a tiny sector.
I will keep asking. Are gold neutrals chasing the rise in gold?
GOLD ON A RUN……………UP 17 today………NICE RUN this week……..1120 to 1173
NICE CLOSE FOR THE WEEK…………..
Just like I predicted: Once gold broke the manipulation that has been holding it artificially down the break to the upside would be violent and confirm that I was right that this was indeed an artificially created bear market.
Think of gold like trying to hold a beachball underwater. You can do it for a while but eventually you run out of strength and the beachball comes flying back to the surface and shoots up into the air. This is what is happening with gold right now as it breaks the manipulation that has been holding it underwater for 3 years.
I think you are correct………and been agreeing with you since the double bottom, and I will have to say, that I did not agree with you prior…..But, anyway, great call.
Yes, when that beach ball flies to the surface it becomes a short-covering rally, which is why it has the extra velocity.
BINGO……………..
Gary no disrespect but this is nonsense. The next time it goes down, you’ll say it’s not the call but the manipulators. It was in October when you predicted exactly the same breakout, holding beachball down, don’t get sucked into selling etc etc. I might add this was in addition to multiple earlier similar calls, not just for gold but oil. That was when I held you as a contrarian indicator and maybe a good guess or intuition but gold did nothing but go down. I expect the same again, but perhaps in a more labored way once it exceeds Oct highs to entice more perennial gold bugs.
Eventually you may or should be right, but it’s not this time.
It’s time to convert to bull market rules. In bull markets the surprises come to the upside.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/02/its-time-to-convert-to-bull-market-rules.html
I am cautiously agree with you and I am fully loaded.
Great point Gary. Matthew made a similar comment on Rick’s blog today, and it is sound advice if we are in a bull market. We won’t know until the Spring if we are in a bull market, because it still remains to be seen if the $1045.40 December lows will get tested, or if new lows could get triggered.
To be clear, I’m not saying that gold or the miners will hit new lows, and I have a healthy partial positions in about a dozen miners, but I’m still somewhat cautious to see what happens in March-June. If gold takes off then awesome and the positions I have will capitalize on the move, but if it falls out of bed, then I’m also not “all in” when we don’t have a confirmation yet one way or the other.
Excelsior, very smart—-You can always add further on pullbacks of which there will be many—You would think once again we’re going right to the moon. How many times have we heard that? This PM and PM stock market is not going to get away from you. We’re setting up for another move down as we get later into February. Stocks will signal that impending move down first. The key will be not to chase these stocks but buy on pullbacks of which there will be many chances.
Ex; I might add that I took my first position short on gold stocks today right at the close. I’ll average in over the next 5-10 trading days.
I’m waiting until next week before starting to short. When $1146.30 was taken out then I mentioned 2 more targets $1160.40 and $1184.30. In overnight trading Gold went up and tagged $1160.80 twice, and then early morning $1161.40 and then pulled back as one would expect. I’m now waiting until next week to see if Gold can make it to that $1184.30 target before peaking out. Maybe today was it, but regardless there will be plenty of time to short gold if it is going back down for a while.
Doc – Good thoughts and insights as always. Much appreciated.
Good thoughts Doc and I agree that we need to see what happens over the next few months, and I don’t think until we see the character and velocity of the down move, that we’ll know whether the December bottom was the Major Bottom, or just an intermediate bottom with more work to do.
Now…. If Decmber at $1045.40 was the bottom, I’m very happy with the positions I currently have in place, and like you said, you can always add to them on the dips.
Also, if the December low really was the bottom then the support level at $1044.70 I mentioned for over a year prior and from a price hundreds of dollars higher will have been a very cogent call (considering the only person I know of that had that level as a target in Dec of 2014 was Mark Alan). Rick A. didn’t pick that target until about a month or so out.
The vast majority of the other bottom callers have just called every turn all the way down from 2011 as the bottom, so due to recency bias they’ll claim they just called the bottom for Dec 2015…..rubbish…. What about all the other times they were sure the train was leaving and it would not go lower than 1700, or 1500, or 1300 or 1250, or 1180, or 1100, or 1080, etc…. What about 2013 being the bottom, or the Nov 2014 crew, or the August 2015 crew……
Hey !
As a former, card-carrying Novemberist, I resent you being correct !
😉
Ha! Funny Brian. Brian, you are always kind and polite in your interaction with others and were never been one to beat on the bottom drum. At that time you felt pretty sure it was the bottom and challenged a few folks that felt it was not, and posted a few very good charts outlining your thinking and position.
In contrast to a number of newsletter writers and Gold gurus, you were not just writing what other wanted to hear or trying to sell subscriptions. There are newsletter writers or bloggers that flippantly stung other commentators on this site and many other PM sites with remarks that they were right in the past about the tops, and they were right about November 2014 and acted all snarky, like they had some divine way of knowing this. I disagreed with their “matter of fact,” attitudes when they had said the same things the entire way down in the bear market.
If you remember, in early 2015, I was actually hoping you and the other card-carrying Novemberists were correct because I had taken on a fair amount of positions in the miners in Nov/Dec of 2014, and kept the door open for the possibility, but I also was vocally against it for the most part and only gave it a 10-15% chance. At the time, I repeatedly commented that it didn’t feel like a bottom with sentiment too high, not enough bankruptcies or mergers, and people were too optimistic for it to be the bottom. I stated in early 2015 in Jan & early Feb when Gold ran up to 1308 that there was a very good chance for Gold to finally break out of the bear…..but it would require a brief pause another strong push further through $1308 and about $40-$80 more to take out those prior peaks. Instead Gold cratered and whimped out.
At the time (and to this very day) I wanted to see $1347 and $1382 taken out to prove we are in a new Gold bull beyond any doubt because they are significant prior peaks. Someone at that time made a smart-ass funny that maybe I’d be sure we were in a bull market when $1920 was taken out. 🙂
Regardless, I always enjoy you positive attitude, believe your 11 stock picks you posted earlier this week are top of class (and like all of them), and this time around things are a little different with the Dec 2015 double bottom, the sentiment slide, the increase in mergers and bankruptcies, the dollar potentially double-topping, and a terrible mood in most PM investing conferences.
If December was the bottom, then I’m thrilled because I look forward to riding up the PM bull, have a dozen positions myself, and am ready for the Bear to be over with as much as anybody. My only point to others recently was that it’s still a little early to break out the party hats and bubbly and declare it a new bull market until we see how the next few months go and if the lows get retested. I’ll concede that the weekly chart breaking above the descending wedge upper trend line is a beautiful thing…… 😉
Yes, like I’ve been saying, there will be scary corrections so the bull shouldn’t get away from anyone. The problem is, most people doubt themselves when such pullbacks happen and lose their nerve to buy as they had planned to.
Just don’t be the guy who needs more proof every time it drops. The weekly chart tells us right now that a deep scary plunge should be bought.
Agreed that the bull shouldn’t get away from anyone, and there will be plenty of pullbacks for people to take positions if they don’t have them in place. I have mining positions in place because we noted the double bottom W pattern in December and that a strong rally could come out of that intermediate bottom.
We also discussed in December of this year and last year that Gold would be seasonally strong in Jan/Feb and it was last year and this year so far. However March – June and the summer doldrums are more challenging for PMs in a seasonal perspective. Granted 2016 is a year where some of these tendencies could break down if Gold really is turning the narrative from bearish to bullish.
Yes, I think you made a very good point about investors having the gonads to buy on pullbacks and execute when the markets have started to run. Personally I am in and out of the markets in several different sectors all the time, and have no problem hitting the buy button on a pullback. I think some people dither and waffle around and never take any positions until it is so obvious that the move is over and this is their problem. He who hesitates is lost….
Everybody Loves Gold…Again
Friday February 05, 2016
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-02-05/Everybody-Loves-Gold-Again.html
Time to bail……….. 🙂
I agree Gary.
It appears to me physical gold is running low and price suppression of gold is failing.
It is a simply a short-covering rally because most market participants thought that Gold was going to keep going down in Dec, Jan, & Feb. They were wrong. A number of us mentioned in late Dec, that Gold was more likely to go up in Jan & Feb on a technical basis, and on a seasonality basis. I guess the shorts weren’t reading the KER blog 🙂
Shorts never do……………short minded on wisdom………. 🙂
Ha! good one…..they tend to be short-sighted and near-sighted….. 😉
****** I TOLD THE TRUTH ON HERE AND THEY KICK ME OFF! ******
I said it would be a red week and it is!
Your message is fine. Just your way of delivering it.
Even I agree with you a lot but your message still sounds harsh.
You treat everyone as idiot but there are a lot of independent thinkers here
A lot of independent thinkers……………….BUT,,,,,,,,,WELCOME BACK MARK……
Thanks man!
No problem……..appreciate your heads up approach…..there is a lot going on, and not everyone reads all the news, so a reminder is not bad in my mind. Cheers.
+10 Dragonite. I couldn’t have said it better myself, on all three comments.
Sorry about that…………but think about it, what else can I say, Obama is lying to the people!
Dragonite, this message above was for you!
YOOoooo Frank, whar’s up!
How about that BDI?
I posted the BDI for you yesterday………297……LOWEST ON RECORD.
Unreal isn’t it!………..and he still got on live tv today and said that everything is alright!
Really, hard to believe……!
Moderators, I am not on here to hurt anyone, for the most part the traders on here are great people!
Yes I will curtail my behavior towards the economy………..but lets be real here!
We are in trouble because of these markets that we believed in and trade in are now heavily manipulated!
Nobody on this blog is stupid, there are no more fundamentals in trading, they don’t work anymore!
This is now a CHICAGO GANG (Obama) in place running the system…….the lies and corruption is unbelievable!………….AND AS A RESULT WE HAVE TO BE PREPARED FOR WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW…………AND THAT IS THE COLLAPSE!!!
Sorry! I will be nice!
I share your frustration. The last couple of years is not what market deserves.
Yes and thank you Dragonite……………but will anybody else on here have the humanity and the balls to adnit it!
“will anybody else on here have the humanity and the balls to adnit it!”
Mark, there’s no doubt in my mind that the US economy, and many others, are in horrible shape due to excess debt and terrible management by our corrupt leaders. I believe that 2008 was just a warning, and much worse is coming.
But I’ve studied this to death for years. What I’m interested in is navigating stormy seas, not freaking out daily over the fact that we are in stormy seas, much less constantly beating others over the head with this obvious fact.
I have little doubt that many on the site are every bit as aware of the dire situation as you or I. But if they’re like me, they see little point in your approach. Imagine what this comment board would look like if a dozen people were to adopt your style of frequent, repetitive, alarmist, insulting posts.
That sums it up GH. Well said.
you shouldn’t be kicked off Mark, all opinions should be welcome. However I still think you should get a call to settle you down especially with these discount prices.
Mark this thing will get to at least 1950 before collapsing below previous intraday low around 1810 Mind you if it dows, I EAT CROW.
The disaggregated future commercial PMs COT report for the past week is out. The silver short net contract position increased again by about 1500 contracts while the gold short net contract position increased again by about 3500 contracts. After the run up of the PMs this week and probably next week, expect a further short position to be placed by the commercials.
Doc,
I don’t think one needs to get very bearish on gold until the commercial short position reaches 280,00 – 320,000 contracts. We have a long way to go before we reach that level, it’s only at 193,000 this week.
Thanks Gary. Those will be interesting benchmarks to keep a lookout for. Much appreciated.
ditto………..
OWL……..said… If, gold broke 1170….he was buying beer for everyone…….. 🙂
I’m still waiting on my case in the mail, but I’ll drink a few tonight regardless and toast to the Big Owl, to Cory, and to the KER Homies……
As mentioned in the past, the PMs should be okay into late February. However, I feel we only have about 10 more trading days of this luxury before we start moving down. As mentioned above, I started shorting the miners at the close today and will average in over the next10 trading days.
Don’t worry Gary, read the COT REPORT these guys are in trouble!
The bull in gold is now!
Doc,
Bullish engulfing candlesticks just painted on SAND chart. How much faith do you have? Do you think this will sustain?
Hey Doc,
Nice uptick in XRA. Are you still not buying this move? Thinking of buying at these levels.
Thanks.
Cali, I’m not adding at these levels. I’ll wait for the next pullback which is coming and will then add.
Cali, I might add that XRA may move a little higher over the next 10 trading days but then watch out.
Thank you again. 6 months chart looks whipsawing action, maybe bottom is already in for Exeter? Time will tell.
What about SAND? It painted a bullish engulfing today.
By well into May, the highest (and I repeat the highest) price for SAND would be just below 3. In other words, the odds are for a lower price then that. Once we get into March, I’ll be able to tell you if the odds of the higher price is achievable or not. I’ll have more technical data by then to ascertain an answer.
I do not own SAND but I read your earlier comments and looked at the chart myself. I have to agree, didn’t feel like it was going up anytime soon. 3 year chart looks horrible. I like the company though, but an unpredictable stock. However, I might add that ongoing thrust in miners is looking strong and It might push the 3 dollar target before march. It might be a good trading opportunity.
*** GOLD IS FINE, and will continue doing fine………..the bottom IS over and YES the Comex is done!
Long live fundamentals again and real trading in gold!
DOC, yes you can short gold next week because of the Chinese New Year!
But Doc, after that, gold goes up!
Trust me…….next week by Friday’s close, gold will be up and from then on!
GO GOLD!!!!!!
Good thought on the Chinese New Year…………….I forgot about that one.
Mark, I hope you’re right since I’ve purchased PMs for years.
DOC, Don’t worry, you are good!
NUGT up 20% Wed. NUGT up 20% Thur. NUGT up 17% Fri.
I banked 12%, 20%, and 5% on NUGT this week. Finally cleared out a red position that I have been holding for 6 months. Scalped 5% after averaging it down this morning.
OWL………has decided that you should buy the beer this week……. 🙂
Doc, PPP got hit hard again today. Let me know what you think of it. Thanks.
These announcements were probably not helping the Primero Mining cause today.
SHAREHOLDER NOTICE: Goldberg Law PC Announces an Investigation of Claims against Primero Mining Corp. and Strongly Encourages Investors to Contact the Firm
Business Wire Fri Feb 05 2016
SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Shareholders of Primero Mining Corp. – PPP
Accesswire Fri Feb 05 2016
SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Announces Investigation of Primero Mining Corp. (PPP)
PR Newswire Fri Feb 05 2016
IMPORTANT INVESTOR ALERT: Goldberg Law PC Announces an Investigation of Claims against Primero Mining Corp. and Strongly Encourages Investors to Contact the Firm
Business Wire Fri Feb 05 2016
EQUITY ALERT: Rosen Law Firm Announces Investigation of Securities Claims Against Primero Mining Corp.
Business Wire Fri Feb 05 2016
The Article below highlights the challenge Primero has on their hands and the concerns that bubbled over from Thursday into Friday……
__________________________________________________________________________
Why Gold Stocks Looked (Mostly) Lustrous on Thursday
Gold stocks looked as lustrous as ever on Thursday, and the good times may continue if a few fundamental factors fall into place.
Not everyone joined the party –
But alas, not everyone enjoyed the coming out party for gold miners today. Primero Mining (NYSE:PPP), which principally operates in Mexico and Canada, was just clobbered to the tune of 28% after announcing that a legal claim has been filed by Mexican tax authorities against its subsidiary, Primero Empresa Minera.
According to the press release, which came out after the closing bell on Wednesday, the tax authority in Mexico is seeking to nullify the Advanced Pricing Agreement (APA) issued in 2012 that governs what portion of Primero’s proceeds are taxed. Primero Mining believes its APA should cover all silver mined between 2010 and 2014 without retroactive dispute; but based on today’s nosedive, it’s clear that Wall Street and investors are concerned.
Bonzo, it has further to fall—I’ll get interested in about 6 weeks. Keep asking me about it. There’s a point at which I’ll “gamble” and take a position.
Personally, I am staying with a position on NUGT for the time being (with the understanding that it is going to be volatile as the market consolidates recent gains).
On a side note… in looking at Avi’s most recent article on Kitco (Feb 3rd), he said that regarding GDX, the downside set up would be invalidated on a move through $15.01 and be the first indication of a long term bottom. Further, that we would receive confirmation on a move through 17.
Both objectives were reached this week, so will be interested to hear Avi’s next comments on KE Report, if he now believes that we have put in the bottom in the miners. Have a good weekend, all.
Great observation. GDX did have quite a move up and closed today above the prior peak at $16.90. Very encouraging.
Indeedy !
with the market going down and negative interest rates ,gold is going up.
In Canadian dollar term, gold has returned to the level prior to April 2013 plunge. Silver in still 20% under it.
The major miners are up 22% this week yet many are still stuck in a bear market mindset. That is what happens during long and damaging bear market. Recency bias makes it almost impossible for traders to adapt to the change that occurs once the bear reverses and becomes a bull.
This is one of the reasons the initial move out of the final bottom tends to be so powerful, because so many traders can’t, or won’t recognize the change that has occurred. They’ve simply gotten burned too many times in the past and they are scared that it’s just going to happen again. So many try to short the move adding more fuel to the fire. Most miss the turn and have to chase adding even more fuel.
But the fact is that the biggest and fastest gains come at the very beginning and very end of a bull market. You will never get another chance to make this kind of money this fast again until we get to the very end of the bull during the final bubble phase.
This is why it’s so important to adapt quickly when the turn comes and convert over to bull market rules. In bull markets the surprises come to the upside. Overbought conditions can stay overbought for a long time, and sentiment extremes don’t stop price from rising. The playing field changes once the bear comes to an end and the bull starts.
And from my experience the quickest way to lose money other than taking profits too quickly and having the bull run away from you, is to try and short the initial move out of the bottom. Look at the first leg up in stocks out of the 09 bottom. The first leg up in miners out of the 08 bottom.
Miners are in a buying stampede and it’s still only on day 13. Stampedes typically last 17-25 days. And this one is being driven by the gold market breaking 3 years of manipulation that has held gold artificially down. There’s no telling how far it could go during this initial rally. The rally out of the 09 bottom racked up 100% in 2 months and that wasn’t a market breaking free of years of manipulation. Most of that occurred over an 18 day period.
The hardest thing to do is hang on for the entire initial rally out of the final bottom. Very few will do it. The few that do will make crazy money in an incredibly short time.
The Quest portfolio is now up almost 800%.
I thought everybody might enjoy this graph. What do we call it? Bent Ruler On Table Edge?
http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/goldpara.png
I call it the Pot o Gold at the end of the rainbow pattern. If you zoom in really close to that bullish candle, youll see our resident Leprechaun IrishTony is standing there waiving at us 🙂
NICE CHART BRIAN……………..THANKS……………..
Good points Gary. But a couple points.
1) The rallies out of 2008 & 2009 in miners and stocks was hugely unusual in it’s speed and size. But that was due to the panic immediately prior. Yes, we may be in for something comparable, due to the manipulated nature of the markets. But odds are we aren’t.
2) When I look at a long term weekly or monthly chart it tells me that the vast majority of any potential bull market in miners still lies ahead, and people still have a lot of time to get in and make a lot of money.
But again, good points, and I commend you for sticking your neck out here and grabbing peoples’ attention.
Great additional points GH. This will be different than the 2008/2009 bottom, and yes, while the beginning impulse leg for a turn into a bull run is very powerful when they come along, and will return nice gains to those in position, we don’t know that is what that is yet. Now if Gold sails past $1184.30 and $1191 without blinking then we very well may be in that initial burst out of the gates that leaves everyone scratching their heads. However, there will plenty of time and many pullbacks where people can take positions over time. If it is a new bull market then there will be years of a appreciation and I expect the beginning stages of a bull to be more volatile and plod along instead of being a V-shaped recovery like last time.
Good job Gary
Gary no disrespect but you have called several bottoms in gold and oil over the years, none of which have been correct. Why now? Gold has not yet taken out its prior swing high at $1191.
For me, I would like to see a weekly close above $1308 before I call an end to the bear..
You are mistaken. I called intermediate bottoms, all of which had the possiblity to be a final bottom. We made money off almost all of them. This is also an intermediate bottom and as you can see we are making good money off it.
But things are different this time. The miners are making higher intermediate highs.
This time the odds are very high that this isn’t just another bear market rally but also a final bear market bottom.
As I kept stressing the later we got into the bear market the more likely it became that the next intermediate bottom would be the final bottom. And if that wasn’t it then the odds would go up even greater that the next one would be the final bottom.
Most traders can’t think that way though. Most people suffer from recency bias so they become conditioned to expect every rally to fail because every rally for the last 4 years has failed. That’s the opposite of what you should be doing though. You should expect every rally to succeed the later we get into the bear.
Personally I don’t want to wait until gold has already rallied $300 before I get excited and enter. By then it will be time for a correction. I want to catch the initial rally. As I explained the initial rally is where the biggest and fastest gains are made.
Karl: I can’t tell you how often I’ve warned folks when they hop on the “go to the moon” train and then end in a wreck. I’ll say one thing though; some of the PM miners have already entered their own bull markets but they’re mainly producers with minimal to no debt, cash flow, and decreasing AISCs. The explorers with minimal to no debt,good reserves, and considerable liquidity will have to wait yet for a considerable time. However, this is the first move in the PMs that I personally feel a little good about. But this move is coming to an end and we’ll see how far we move down into spring. That should give us a considerable amount of information as to if we’ve finally have the lows in the PMs. Otherwise, it’s another guessing game. And I’ll say another thing. This is not 2009 all over again . Just as the PMs took a 75 degree escalator down back then and then rode a 75 degree escalator back up; this time we rode a 45 degree escalator down and in all likehood will ride a 30-45 degree escalator back up. From a technical standpoint this looks like a totally different picture. However, I believe this will be the year to start to assemble appropriate PM stocks for the coming better times.
Doc,
I’d be willing to double down on the dinner bet. 🙂
You would have to outline for me what the specifics are so we know what we’re betting on. I wouldn’t mind if I pick up another steak or for that matter some french fries to go with my first steak. Although I figure that for the first steak I get the usual accoutrements that go with a steak dinner—so let me know specifically what you’re predicting and over what time frame. Then I’ll let you know if I’m a sucker enough to take the bet for another steak.
Gold has completed it’s bear market. We are not going to get a final top to this rally next week. We have at least 3 more weeks and probably more like 5-6. We need one more daily cycle correction and then a thrid daily cycle higher before we top.
Gold will take out 1191 and make a higher intermediate high just like the miners have done, confirming the bear market is over.
Miners are already up 47% in 13 days. Before this intermediate cycle tops they will rally 70-100%.
Okay; I can agree we probably have an end to the gold bear market. So I can’t take that bet. I also can agree that we may not see the final top to this rally next week since I’ve said many times that we could see this move up extend late into February. I also can agree we have a very good chance at 1191. Now your comment on miners is interesting. We might have a bet there but you would have to define what ETF we’re talking about and what level it would reach before it peters out. We actually see eye to eye on this one more then any in the past.
Oh come on Gary…..lets be real.
Why don’t you actually be honest? People can go back & check on this site & realise that is complete BS ?
You have told everyone on here the train has left the station at a much higher gold price than this before…so why lie & now say they were intermediate bottom calls?…..short memory on your behalf? Some of us are not that silly !…or forgetful for that matter !
Your failure to admit that only comes across as both insincere & complete BS to the KER community.
We await your apology for your forgetfulness , but I doubt its forthcoming ?
Oh? Another memory lapse? & another bottom call?….apparently they go hand in hand…..all the way down too.
You remind me of an old school Tuna Chummer,
Find a new school of fresh fish,
Sprinkle only a tiny bit of live bait….slowly…..ever slowly increase the sprinkle….then once you have them biting they will chomp down anything in the frenzy….even a lure….then lose the school & blame the Skipper !
Rinse & repeat….look for the next fresh fish
You constantly cried manipulation everytime the market proved you wrong,
I only laugh & call BS….you have stumbled from bottom call to bottom call all the way down.
Yet here you are beating your chest again?
Your a little early Gary. …its not April 1st yet…LOL
Also, the reason you left here on a daily basis was not because of trolls as you proclaim.
It was because you were sounded out about wrong calls that you took no responsibility for whatsoever (it was always manipulation…never you).
In your eyes you are never wrong.
I’d F’n kick my own Son’s in the arse if I saw them performing your smoke & mirrors routine.
For what it’s worth the stock market is going to make a major bottom sometime in the not too distant future, and everyone will miss that bottom also.
You can already see it. Everyone is convinced we’ve started a bear market. While we may technically trigger a bear market by dropping 20% or more, it won’t be a real bear market. It is just the major correction that has to happen before the bubble phase can begin. We have to stretch the pendulum far to the downside to build the fuel neccessary to drive the bubble phase.
You watch, sometime in the next several months I’ll call the bottom in stocks and no one will believe me on that one either. It’s always the same story at every one of these major intermediate turning points. Everyone is bearish and I’m the only one calling for a turn.
On the way up I kept telling everyone that the Nasdaq was going to break the all time highs. Meanwhile the crowd was busy trying to call tops for the last couple of years and missed the entire move. Then at the top the crowd was looking for 2300 in the S&P. I warned that we would not get any significant follow through once the Nasdaq reached 5132 and that big money would unload at the top. We would then have to drop into a major major correction before stocks could break out. That is what we are doing now.
But once the correction is over and stocks do head back up, the breakout is going to generate a massive move higher. The consolidation in the Nasdaq is 15 years long. A consolidation that huge is going to drive a monster move higher. We could easily see 15,000 or higher in the Nasdaq before the bubble phase is over.
I do agree with your call on the Conventional Markets though Gary,
I think they will eventually take many by surprise.
gary the silence is deafening on doc’s request as to which etf on gold and what price limit.
For the first time ever, I m looking forward to the silver miners falling in price.