How about those domestic employment numbers?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
The overall unemployment rate is now announced at 4.9% and the labor participation rate has “increased” Really? Is this considered to be the “new math”?
Strip mall………….naked short………..short of cash…………..
Looks like……….1.4million new bartender jobs created and 1.6million manufacturing jobs lost.
GARY………says……………bear market in gold is over……….He is mentioning HUI , that something just happened in an intermediate high, that has not happened in 4 yrs.
Gary says he’s about 90% convinced the bear in gold is over.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/02/its-time-to-convert-to-bull-market-rules.html
Gary is an idiot!
be nice…….or you will get the velvet hammer….. 🙂
anything over 51 % is close enough……….lol
oops…………gold up to 1164, looking good…
oops…………1168, gold making a late Friday run………TGIF
TGIF – Weekly close…..
Netflix is $85 now from a high around 130+. It could be a great buy at $70 later this month.
WHERE IS TWEETY………………….
1880 on the s&p should break once oil starts to fail again and that is only a matter of time. It bounced off 1880 today so far. We could go down again to 1800.
I find it funny, the net tells me employment is lousy in the states, when I ask friends that has family or own property their, everyone is working and things are good.
bb,
The situation is VERY location dependent.
Yes, and many have low standards and/or are unable to accurately assess the real impact to their own situation. People are more resilient than they generally realize.
I dont know, I think people understand their situation, other than currency devaluation, stuff like that.
But a woman I know worked in the same position 20 some years, finally wanted a change and was working full time in another industry within a week.
I have a buddy whose entire family is stateside, mainly Montana but its a big family spread out quite a bit, all are working and all say things are good.
People I know in Arizona, yes there was a drop in house prices but they rebounded and things are good.
CFS, may have the main point, location.
Sure matters when you open a retail outlet. lol
Like we need more retail………………lol
I know a lot of people in Montana and they feel the same as the ones you know, bb.
I believe it’s an area less hard-hit than most by the financial stagnation since 2008.
I am recently looking for positions in US since Calgary is in real trouble. My experience fits more than oil and gas. After 2 dozens of applications, I find it is very difficult to attract attention even with my high level of experience and legal status to work in US. A couple of years ago, my friends could do it easily. They were trying to attract Canadians. Not sure it is my own issue or not. I will be really surprised if it is since I got all the right certificates, education and experience. However, after I sent applications to the neighboring province in Canada, I got offers immediately and I had to raise my demand. It just feel strange. I thought Canada is in bigger trouble.
I haven’t heard any of my friends moving to US for over a year, even this should be the prime time in Calgary. I know a lot of my friends who are out of job.
The numbers are rigged like Rick said and the market knows it.
Gold looks a lot better than TLT:
Thanks guys.
Question for you. Seems like there is almost no discussion of agriculture commodities on the show, but it looks like they are bottoming as well and could rise sharply with the rest of commodities and, IMHO at least, pending large price inflation over the next few years.
Can you please have some guests on to discuss this space and some companies and ETFs in the space.
I am especially interested in leveraged ETFs, which could also be a great segment for the show. Of course one has to be careful with them due to volatility, however if one catches a segment like gold, oil, etc. at the bottom or near a bottom, the “decay” people speak of in leveraged ETFs should not be a factor over many months or even years of a bull market (if the sector stagnates or declines however the leverage gets nasty).
IMO if precious metals, agriculture commodities and oil are about to bottom or have bottomed, a small investment in leveraged ETFs in these spaces could pay off enormously over the next few years.
Can you please address these two areas in some shows? 1) Agricultural commodities and related companies and ETFs and 2) The use of leveraged ETFs specifically when we’re approaching a bottom in some major sectors
There’s so much strength in the miners that even with gold’s selloff this morning, GDX couldn’t fill yesterday’s gap and is now heading for a bullish engulfing if it can close near the current level.
Mathew…agreed the miners look strong..i’m holding a gold miner that usually takes a hit when the metals drop..even it is gaining today..VGZ… and SLW, iAG and AG all look good..what an absolutely great respite, even if it is only for a few days…
If you’re a long term investor, don’t lose your positions. Sure, the respite will end from a short term perspective but I think it will last much longer for those invested for the long term.
I said it when Claude was rising last year: always err on the side of the bull. Surprises will be to the upside and obvious downside targets will rarely be reached.
Just my opinion; ignore if you doubt the bear is ending.
Thanks for that reminder Matthew. When I first traded out of Claude last year expecting a pullback, there was a small one, but then it surged, and I had to chase it higher. Gary Savage has been making a good point as well that the whole investor community had gotten so conditioned to sell the counter-trend rallies in the miners, that very soon they’ll be wrong and chasing moves higher. You are correct that the downside here is more limited, and the surprises will be to the upside.
I trimmed and sold yesterday into the strength, but then bought a few more back or a few smaller companies this morning. I’m waiting for a few upside surprises but still am wary of the spring pullback Doc feels pretty confident about. As a result, I am still looking for at least some liquidity to exit quickly should things turn over.
100% agree. Pick your stocks carefully, then accumulate on downturns. If need be, dollar-cost-average down, if you find yourself with a larger percentage in a certain stock.
It is important to develop your own criteria for selecting stocks to buy&hold. Personally, the jurisdictional, ethical, and environmental aspects are a little more important to me than most PM investors. There are some very BAD mining companies out there.
What you KNOW has to override what you FEEL. That’s why it’s very important to know as much as you can.
Let the winners ride. For most of us, it is an act of arrogance or ignorance to attempt to trade a powerful trend in size. I’m not talking about appropriate profit taking/rebalancing.
As for a pullback, it’s inevitable, the question is, from what level. That’s where most get into trouble. A powerful trend doesn’t care about neat plans to make even more money. As with Claude last year, predictions tend not to come true. If the move extends to the upside, even a big pullback may not bring the price back to where you sold -much less where you want to buy.
Yes great points. As for Claude last year it really surprised almost everyone with how far it rose, without a major correction, even with the gold price was getting hit. (just like oil fell much further from over $100 to $26, than even the most bearish imagined). My personal reason for trading rarely has anything to do with feelings, and is usually focused around what I do know. At the time I traded out of Claude, I knew gold was going lower, and it did (as did the vast majority of mining stocks in sympathy). When Claude showed such strength in the face of falling metals in compared to it’s peers, I got back in because I realized it was a powerful trend.
Overall, I wouldn’t say the miners as a whole have been in a “powerful trend” for years, but once that tide comes in, then it will be wise to hold onto one’s stock picks, in contrast to over trading them. In a bear market down, it would have been extremely unwise to buy and hold, so trading the counter-trend rallies, or identifying the dozen or so winners was the only way to make money.
The point remains that we don’t know if there is going to be a Spring correction down to test $1045.40 or possibly head lower. As a result, while I have positions in place, I am still quite cautious, because if there is a 2-3 months dive down it would be unwise to hold though, and testing all time lows would be different than a healthy pullback.
To be clear, I am not saying Gold will even test the $1045.40 lows from Dec 2015, and it may only get back down to $1080, or heck it evenmay “go to da moon”….. the point is until we have more of a confirmation that the lows are in, then I am cautious to call this a powerful trend in size.
The powerful trend in the miners is the young one seen on a daily chart. I don’t know if I can find my comments but I remained bullish Claude throughout its long rise while several others commented repeatedly that it would pull back. The signs were there that it should not be treated like the sector in general.
Whether it’s in the spring or the summer, a big correction will come, but even if gold shocks us on the downside, I doubt very much that the miners will come close to turning the outlook to bearish (big picture).
Yes, each of us has to decide how much confirmation we require, but waiting for too much means giving up a lot of upside since leverage comes from the unknown and perceived unlikely.
Agreed. Everyone had different risk tolerance levels, investing objectives, and time horizons. I agree with your statement that “waiting for too much means giving up a lot of upside since leverage comes from the unknown and perceived unlikely.”
Personally I have partial positions in place in about a dozen miners at present but will have closer to 24 full positions when I’m fully invested.
As for Claude, both Doc and myself and several others mentioned we thought it may pull back at one point, but it clearly didn’t. We both got back on the train, and you were right to hold onto it and sell later (which I also did at higher level, and I still made money the 3 times I traded it).
However, Claude was one of the select companies that really blew away all other companies, and Claude blew away even the best of the best that bottomed in 2013, so it is a unique example.
To represent the other side of this discussion, I also remember our buddy Glenfidish using this same rationality that once this trend gets started it is best to hang on, and he felt liftoff had started with Scorpio. I disagreed at the time, and I sold my big portion at a nice profit, and I’ll mention over 300% higher than where the share price is today. I have just recently purchased quite a bit more of Americas Silver in tranches to average down to near present prices and saved myself thousands and thousands of dollars by not hanging on to a stock when the I perceived more downside risk.
It is definitely a 2 way street, a case by case examination, and never a sure thing that hanging on is better than selling the rips and buying the dips until it is very obvious that a longer term bottom is in place.
My most effective technique is to start building a core position in a stock and fading out and trimming on the highs, and adding on the lows, and repeating to bring the overall cost basis down to a level that you feel unlikely to be breached. Then I’ll stake out down bloody days to add to that core position for a longer time frame from a position of strength.
It is definitely a 2 way street and
Yes, I remember that you sold Scorpio, but such “price plopping” is dangerous now if the low is in place. “Selling the rips” within an established bear market is a whole different thing than attempting the same within a bull. If the low is in for the cyclical bear, selloffs will be met with smart money buying that can make it difficult to get your position back. Money, especially big money, that positions for the long run knows that the sector is cheap even if the whole thing doubles or more. So those who focus on years not weeks will bid aggressively even though it might look foolish to those who focus on short term trades.
Selling based on overbought readings alone can be dangerous.
Good thoughts and I believe we share the same philosophy as far as this is concerned. My point is that we don’t definitively know that the PM Bear is over and that the Bull has begun. The action lately is definitely encouraging, but it could top out soon and head down for a few months. That’s exactly why I have a partial position in place instead of plopping all my money in here.
Matthew..I’ve held these positions for years and am in many at much higher prices…not about to sell out anytime soon…fact is I’m adding to many of them…
The miners haven’t looked this good in a very long time.
That is a very strong weekly chart for sure.
The miners are getting their groove on…..
The bears have stuffed the C$ back inside this fork:
You can see that it’s all about the close and that’s why the fork was based on closing prices.
Hello Matthew,
Hope all’s well.
I know you used to own PPP.
Do you have any clue of (or have you read anything about) how much the tax claim could be, if authorities prevail in their attempt?
Just trying to get a sense of the magnitude.
Cheers,
LPG
Hello LPG, I no longer have any exposure to PPP but if the authorities prevail it would be significant in my opinion. When the deal was made in the middle of 2012, the relief was enough to send my warrants up roughly 700% in about three months while the shares tripled.
Since markets are quick to discount and over discount, I’m sure you’re trying to decide if a “back up the truck” moment is coming or if you should leave it alone altogether. Given the robustness of the project and where we are currently in the cycle, I’m leaning more toward the former not the latter.
I think a good place to start looking for the details you need would be the press releases from July 2012.
Matthew,
Thanks for that.
I had looked at the press release already.
According to my numbers, ASSUMING the tax levied by the gvt was 5% (i have no idea how much it is so I used 5%) then I get a c. $35mn difference between likely paid and likely to be claimed over that 5 yr period.
Assuming it is the ball park figure and maybe some penalties adjusting for inflation… I assume this can go up to say $50mn so c. $0.30/share.
Just wanted to see if you had any views or had come across any number yourself.
Best as always,
LPG
Between Amazon and robotics, the future is LESS Labor.
That does not necessarily imply dropping standards of living; except for incompetent, self-serving politicians that seem to have the brains firmly stuck up their ass#s.
RUMOR (From Gold Tent)
Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) in late stage talks to buy Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG)
Well Lake Shore Gold sure spiked today.
Here’s a little blurb from the Yahoo message board about the potential Tahoe Resources buyout of Lake Shore Gold:
__________________________________________________________________________
Rumours of buyout coming from Tahoe
cscritelli • 1 hour 29 minutes ago
All you really need to know is in that title, the rest of this scoop post is just a few details and then a special message for Kevin MacArthur.
But indeed IKN can confirm that Tuesday this week saw a visit by a whole busload of Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) people to the head offices of Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) which just oh so coincidentally happened to be a day on which the whole of the LSG board of directors were there. The happy people from both companies then set up camp in the LSG boardroom for a few hours and even had lunch together, which I’m sure was nice and tasty. What we now understand is that the talks are at the stage where the only question left on the table is the final price for a friendly deal (by the way, THO wants it to be all-paper).
I’ll leave it to LSG and THO to issue one of those “we don’t talk about that kind of thing” denials-that-are-not-denials. But LSG, THO and IKN all know that the above is 100% true.
df2830 • 1 hour 31 minutes ago
Something like 1 share of Tahoe for 8 shares of LSG. That’s about $1.50
zacharypetro • 2 hours 8 minutes ago
I have the link to confirm buyout talks, unfortunately not letting me post here. Tahoe won’t get my shares on the cheap.
Lake Shore Gold Comments on Trading Activity
Marketwired Lake Shore Gold Corp.
25 minutes ago
“….The Company has also become aware of speculation concerning a potential transaction involving the Company.”
“As a general policy, the Company does not publicly comment on market speculation and rumors. The Company is not aware of any material, undisclosed corporate developments that would account for recent trading in its stock.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lake-shore-gold-comments-trading-195903099.html
The trading hault may have just been due to this press release:.
Lake Shore Gold Confirms and Expands Shallow, High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Whitney Project
02/04/2016
Want to know the real unemployment numbers? Look at the number on welfare.
ditto……
Just a heads up to the gold nerds. Someone is doing 300,000 share block buys on GDX at around 1:30pm eastern today. Saw 2 of them myself @16.43 a share.
Asked a couple times what you guys thought of a company, no response.
bb was it Minco that you asked them about?
No, Minco is straight forward.
I asked about Silvercorp, it has what I thought is an interesting story, just a little more interesting than basic dd. Spies, a little intrigue,neat criminal manipulation, courts etc etc
Maybe its just for people that like Hardy boy stories lol.
Wanted to see how other people interpreted it, and I thought it might be a good one to start things off with.
But….they decided not to get into it I suppose.
Silvercorp is one of my dozen holdings at present and I like them for the long haul. My position is in the money and ready to climb if this really is a new bull market.
Yes, there is a little mystery with their Chinese operations, but their mines are bumping and their AISC is about the lowest I’ve seen ($7.72 per Silver Eq. Ounce)!!
It was Dragonite that brought this fact to my attention, so I gotta tip my hat to him for bringing it up on the KER blog a few times.
bb – as luck would have it, they just released an update today and it is impressive to my reasoning, and it is great in relation to most of their peers:
___________________________________________________________________________
Silvercorp Reports Q3 Fiscal 2016 Financial and Operating Results and Fiscal 2017 Guidance Issued
PR Newswire Silvercorp Metals Inc – 1 hour ago
THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
Cash flows from operations of $9.6 million, or $0.06 per share;
Repurchased 684,700 common shares of the Company;
Ended the quarter with $66.8 million in cash and short term investments;
Net income attributable to equity shareholders of $3.3 million, or $0.02 per share;
Silver and lead head grades improved by 13% and 14%, respectively, to 287 grams per tonne for silver and 4.1% for lead at the Ying Mining District, compared to the prior year quarter;
Silver sales of 1.4 million ounces, lead sales of 15.1 million pounds, and zinc sales of 4.7 million pounds, down 15%, 9%, and 33%, respectively, from the prior year quarter;
Realized selling price for silver, lead, and zinc dropped by 12%, 13%, and 35%, respectively, compared to the same prior year quarter;
Sales of $29.1 million, down 28% from the prior year quarter;
Gross margin of 33% compared with 38% in the prior year period;
Cash cost per ounce of silver, net of by-product credits, of $0.90, compared to $0.53 in the prior year quarter; and
All-in sustaining cost per ounce of silver, net of by-product credits1, of $7.72, compared to $10.91 in the prior year quarter.
http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/_resources/news/nr_2016_02_05.pdf
Last time I saw, their AISC was ~ 12.7. Just want to be clear, SVM is a canadian company which set up by the current owner. The people on the board are mostly Canadians. They moved the operation to China by buying out local asset. They got two mines operating. The cost is low because the grade is high and local labor cost is really low. During the Chinese company scandal period, they went through all kinds of rumor and accusation and won all the cases. But it’s share price has suffered. They have $70 million cash in the bank. It is unique on this.
They got good base metal credit. The last big drop is because they pulled off listing from new York.
Hi Dragonite. When you told me they had a really low AISC they were in the $10-$11 zone, and that really impressed me. I also liked that they had multiple mines in 2 primary mining complexes and yes they have the good grades in Silver Lead and Zinc.
I skipped most of their fallout and just averaged into the position over the last month or so and have a profitable position at present.
Thanks for making me take a fresh look at Silver Corp and I think their best days are in front of them.
Cheers!
Thanks for your uranium picks. I got some t.ure and want to get more.
Nice. Yes the insitu miners like Ur-Energy have much lower costs and will survive the low pricing, and they have longer term contracts around $56-$58 at present (far above spot). Uranerz was a similar low cost producer that I really loved, and that is obviously why Energy Fuels acquired them last year, since their hard rock deposits need higher prices to be profitable.
This is also the same reason I am excited about Uranium Resources acquisition last year of Anatolia Energy in Turkey. It will be fast-tracked into a low-cost “in-situ” mine as well and supply Europe. Much like Energy Fuels, Uranium Resources needs higher prices on their hard rock deposits, but is going to survive through the low cost and Less environmentally damaging in-situ mining method.
Lastly, in-situ mining has changed the game for Uranium mining and makes lower grade deposits very economical, and the grade for hard rock deposits (like the Athabasca Basin) is not required. This is what I like about the Uranium mining in Wyoming.
I banked 12%, 20%, and 5% on NUGT this week. Went from MINUS – $53 on NUGT to + $61 in the last hour of trading on my 5% scalp. Wanted to clear out some old high red shares for at least a little profit. Had to wait 9 months to do it. NUGT has run $17.6 to $43.05 in 3 weeks.
LOL………………4.9%