Doc; LPG; Avi; and, Big Al address today’s comments from the family
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
This was, without a doubt, one of most enjoyable Weekend Specials that we have put together.
Great insights from Doc; LPG; and, Avi
Glad you enjoyed it Billy!
Big Al – This was one of the best weekend round-table discussions I can remember.
There were some really great points from Avi, Doc, and LPG.
Fantastico!
Three very good guys, Excelsior!
Doc is correct. Gold will have another intermediate degree correction, but I think it will hold well above the December low. I also think this leg up will go much higher than everyone is expecting. It’s already surprised almost everyone. Two weeks ago the most bullish predictions were for miners to move grudgingly higher or going nowhere fast.
Instead GDX surpised everyone and rallied 47% in 13 days.
Here’s my best guess as to how the next 4-5 weeks will play out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68265833443&a=444332302&listNum=1
Once the rally tops in late February or early March then we get the correction into April or May.
And, this is bottom call number . . .
After 4 1/2 years into a bear market and juniors down 90% you have to assume every intermediate bottom is THE bottom.
I assumed the July low was the bottom also. But when we got the reversal in October I took profits and got back on the sidelines. I didn’t get the bottom but we still made good money.
The same thing will play out here. At some point I will take profits and then get back on the sidelines and see how far down the April/May correction goes. If it holds above the December low then great I’ll recover that steak dinner from Doc. If not then I’ll call the bottom again at the next intermediate bottom.
This deep into a bear market one has to assume every intermediate bottom is THE bottom. Why? Because the biggest gains are made at the very beginning and very end of a bull market. You’ll never get the chance to make as much money as fast as you will out of a final bear market bottom. And the more destructive the bear is the bigger the initial move will be. (at minus 90% in juniors this is one of the most destructive bear markets in history).
Those people that are afraid of being wrong or having the trolls laugh at you because you missed another bottom are letting the herd control their actions.
Forget about the mob. Pay no attention to the trolls. Play every bottom like it is THE bottom because sooner rather than later one of them will be the bottom and those that are willing to jump in are going to make an insane amount of money in a very short amount of time.
Case in point: 47% in 13 days….
The Quest portfolio is now up almost 800%. 🙂
Gary,
I have several thousand members on my site, and a number that have come to me from your site complaining.
You – like MANY others in this market – have made MANY “this is THE bottom” calls. But, each time you were wrong, you did not say “I was wrong.” Rather, you acted like Jackie Mason, and blamed “those son’s of bitches.” You always blamed manipulation for the reason you were wrong. THAT, imho, is dishonest. And, then you claimed that your proof that it was manipulation will be seen when the market goes up. So, effectively you said that the market goes down because of manipulation, but it goes up because you are right.
As far as the market, one has to come to this market, like any other market. . . . and that is with a plan. We had a long term plan. We sold our metals positions in 2011 within 6 dollars of the high made in gold, and the last few months had us buying those positions back. We have come down into our long term target we set years ago, and we are now acting on our plan. In fact, my target had a HUGE BUY BUY BUY all over it. And, we have left some money on the side to buy more in the event we do see a break of the $1,000 level in gold, or it will be deployed on a higher low corrective pullback later this year.
Again, the point is anyone playing this game in an ad hoc manner without a long term plan usually gets killed.
Lastly, I am very happy for your subscribers that earned an 800% profit. But, did you not note just a month or so ago that it was only a 15 or 30% profit? And, when I posted that our mining/metals trading for 2015 earned a total of 406% in 2015, you then said that you think yours may double by year end.
Then you took umbrage with my noting our DOCUMENTED 400% 2015 total returns by stating – – – and I am summarizing:
“folks, I’ve been in this business a long time and when results look too good to be true, they typically aren’t”..
Now, we are faced with someone claiming that a month or so ago, they had a 15-30% return for the last year or so, and now they are miraculously up to 800%. So, is this the “too good to be true” that you mentioned above?
Well said,
Cheers.
Sorry, Gary . . I actually found it, so I don’t have to summarize . . here it is . . . and these are YOUR WORDS IN DEC:
On December 31, 2015 at 3:45 pm,
gary says:
As a matter of fact we did 15% in the metals portfolio this year (and it may end up being double that once we exit the current trade). Just because the market is manipulated doesn’t mean you have to lose money.
And now let’s get back to the 400%.
Let’s assume that you are trading GDXJ as that will produce the largest swings in the mining sector. Even if you caught the exact bottom and exact top of every intermediate swing you can’t even come close to producing a 400% + gain this year. And I think I can say that even the most naive investor doesn’t believe you caught the exact top and exact bottom of every intermediate cycle.
You could maybe do it if you caught almost the exact top and exact bottom of every cycle in NUGT and DUST but then no sane professional would ever expose his subscribers to the kind of massive risk those two vehicles pose to ones portfolio.
Now maybe you have a high risk portfolio where you trade options to achieve the kind of leverage necessary to produce 400% plus gains. If that’s the case then sure 400% is easily obtainable with that kind of strategy, but obviously one can’t risk real money in that kind of trade. Heck I have a high risk trading strategy like this also and we are currently up 170% for the year with the current trade still open. By the time we close the current trade I should at least challenge that 400% mark and maybe better it. But we never start with more than $1000 in this portfolio so no one is at risk of losing any serious money with this strategy.
Here’s the thing, and I’ve been doing this a long time. When something sounds too good to be true it always is. This is how you sucker in people to buy an overpriced newsletter. You make claims of fantastic returns and you tell the world that you timed perfect trade after perfect trade. It’s best if you make these after the fact and in hindsight though because it’s a hell of a lot tougher to do it in real time.
Folks the best traders in the world rarely get it right more than 65% of the time and if you can average 20% a year over an extended period you are one of the best in the world.
Generally speaking when you see someone making outlandish claims of fantastic returns you are better off running as fast as you can in the opposite direction.
Show me someone who claims moderate to good returns or even has a losing year (yes everyone has a losing year from time to time) and is not afraid to tell you when he missed a trade and that is someone who isn’t just out to sell you a subscription.
I also have over 2000 subscribers and I’ve also had several that have complained about your site. They said that it’s virtually impossible to apply your strategies to actually trading because you always have an alternate count. So no matter what plays out you can claim you called the market correctly.
I don’t play that game. I make my trades right or wrong. I document them in real time. If I lose then I lose. I missed the call in oil badly and we are still underwater in the energy portfolio (I do think a final bottom is close though so I expect to recover and be up nicely be year end).
I stated very clearly that the Quest portfolio is a high risk strategy. Not something that one would trade their retirement account with. Obviously the same is true for the strategy you made 400% in. People can’t trade their retirement money in options trades. So we are both in the same boat in our risky trading strategies.
For people trading their main account risk management is the most important consideration. In that account no way would I recommend anything other than just plain ole vanilla GDX, GDXJ and maybe SIL. In that account we are up roughly 35%.
There is fun money where one can take big risks, and then there is serious money where you have to be careful.
You forgot about the money loaded onto the numerous train has left the station (in the wrong direction yet again) calls Gary?
Funny that….next stop manipulation station….all aboard once again.
Gary,
For your information, we “don’t play” . . . and we don’t use “funny money” We use REAL money and use REAL risk management and use REAL numbers.
Also, these trades are not “impossible to apply” unless one does not understand a post/email to a member that says “BUY X AT Y” and then gets a follow up saying “SELL X AT Z” And, THAT earned over 400% in 2015 . . and there was NO funny money, but REAL money used.
And, btw – one of our other analysts just came in 2nd in the WORLD CUP CHAMPIONSHIP OF TRADING, with a return of 176%, and he posts his trades as well.
I suggest you be very careful about claiming that which is not true. Especially since many professionals and large money managers have called me the most accurate metals analyst in the world.
I believed you when you said you made 400%. It isn’t that hard to make 400% if you are willing to trade options. But it is risky as any gap in the wrong direction can destroy ones account. One could buy at X but if price doesn’t stop at X and instead trades through it, then 20 or 30 cents later you have taken a serious hit to that option trade.
So again I’ll say that one can’t trade leverage with ones retirement money.
Massive leverage will always ultimately end up in a blown out account. There are never any exceptions to this rule.
So I’ll say it again: we are both in the same boat in our risky strategies. One can trade them with money you are willing to lose, but you can’t trade your retirement with them.
I’ll let others decide if they want to believe you are the most accurate metals analyst in the world. In my experience no one ever holds the title of “best” in this business for very long.
For short periods of time one guru or another will get hot. Right about that time they break their arm patting themselves on the back that’s usually when the market breaks their system and they fade back into mediocrity.
Actually history has shown that the best long term strategy is to fade the most popular guru as his time is probably about over, and switch to the coldest guru as he’s probably due for a winning streak.
The traders that do the best are either those that are able to adapt the fastest when market condtions change, or those that just plod along with a fixed mechanical system through thick and thin over an extended period of time.
fade me!! 🙂 Have a good night!
Sounds like Bernie Madoff returns. The biggest multi billion dollar hedge funds can barely stay postive for a full year. 800% returns have been heard of in any portfolio.
GOOD ONE………….. Bernie …..Bernie Madoff with Bernie “madman”Sanders….what a year.
With returns like that you don’t need to be selling subscriptions because you would have $100 million accumulated and you want to keep your trade secrets secret.
No. I subscribe to Gary’s site. He is VERY clear that the Quest portfolio is for a much lower amount of capital to start with and uses very risky strategies. I don’t trade the Quest portfolio, but i expect he’s using high leverage and, with the move in metals recently, that accounted for the current 800% increase.
I have to say that when he has been wrong, I have heard Gary say so. So, I think criticism of him for that is just not accurate (perhaps the people doing so didn’t here his acknowledgements, so it’s understandable that they have a wrong impression, but I have heard him say so).
The other thing I like about Gary is that he’s willing to get out right away if it looks like his call was wrong and then wait on the sidelines until a better entry point.
So far I have to say that Gary’s approach is the best one I’ve seen for making excellent profits in a very prudent way.
He doesn’t come off to me as pumping up his claims of profit, etc. I like his service and approach.
Listen, Avi was calling for 2300.00 gold when it hit 1900.00, thats a fact!
Your inflamatory comments, time and time again are truly pathetic.
Have you considered reading your comments before you post them?
Cory. we need another Webinar soon don’t you think? thanks.
As soon as Cory gets back home, Billy.
I agree most with Avi’s point that it doesn’t matter if the final bottom is in or not. We had a great setup for a great rally either way as has happened several other times during this bear market. Few seem to act at the lows and when the turn comes along with clear buy signals, most then seem to focus on, and wait for, a pullback. At least they stay calm, lol.
LPG and Al are absolutely right that gold doesn’t have to do much for the right miners to do extremely well. CRJ, for example, was up 530% since its bear market low when gold bottomed in December. In the exact same period in which CRJ went up 530%, gold lost almost $200. Pretty impressive.
Completely agree Matthew!
Great points Matthew.
This has been Gary’s exact point. He was very clear that he doesn’t mind being wrong calling the bottom and recommending actions expecting it to be the bottom, because we are so close.
When he calls the bottom he hasn’t said “Jump in 100% NOW and use leverage and mortgage the house”. He’s prudently aggressive in his trade recommendations in my opinion and experience.
Big Al, these audios are great and I know you’re a radio guy, but how about audio AND video. You guys probably already have cameras (or even cameras built into your laptops) so you could probably already do it. Just use skype or something similar.
I think seeing your smiling face everyday would be a great morale booster to all of us during these difficult and uncertain times.
Cute, Ebolan.
Unfortunately, I would have to bow out if that were the case. For a reason which would take me too long to go into here, I made my late wife a promise that I would not go on any live or taped video show and only do radio type interviews until our youngest – who was 3 at the time of her passing – reaches 18. I have been invited on CNBC, BNN and other places for video interviews which I have had to decline.
The video could be optional for those who do not want to be seen or don’t have a camera.
Ebolan,
Trust me, you wouldn’t wanna see my face on video. It would be more depressing 😉
Best to you, and keep the morale up.
LPG
Hey dont say that….you look like me afterall.
Lol.
I forgot about this point Skeeta.
Don’t worry. You’re the upgraded version. 🙂
Best & hope all’s well.
LPG
Nah, your the younger looking version LPG,
Even my wife said so.
Cheers.
Nice comments guys, even if a picture is worth a thousand words!
How about a slideshow with pictures and charts embedded?
That you will be seeing in the future, Escelsior.
We may start doing that, Eddie.
KEREPORT will re-brand as: The Korelin Picture Report !
🙂 🙂 🙂
Best to all,
LPG
KPR!!!
….or we could try WKRP….
…but Big Al is not in Cincinnati…..
Audio is enough for me……………lol
Dang, I was going to say that Cinn. joke………..but, thought that was dumb….lol
Or, I should have said……”I thought that would be dumb”….lol 🙂
I have no shame – Here is WKRP in Cincinnati the opening credits (50th anniversary):
Off Topic……About oil instead of gold.
There have been comments in the weekend show about cost of oil production, about supply and demand, but not really much fundamental information.
I am a fundamentalist. I believe everything can be explained and predicted from first principles and fundamental knowledge and any failures stem from a lack of knowledge. Of course, gaining enough knowledge takes a lot of work.
I read and listen to a lot of AGM meetings and balance sheets.
Back to oil:
No one mentioned on the weekend show about supply and hedging.
There is a reason why the oil price has been going down and supply has not dropped of, which is very simple…..hedging.
Those companies which have a relatively high cost of production, when they see the price going down over a relatively long period of time, do not get down on their knees and pray, they sell into the futures market and lock in a price.
Much of the production from Fracking is now being delivered into the market, but it was sold months ago. That is why supply is not dropping off.
I do not expect supply to drop off for at least another 3 months.
People are thinking that because fracked oil might cost $60 a barrel to produce, it would not be produced and sold for $30.
It is not.
It is still being produced because the companies locked in the price months ago.
(This is part of the reason the drop in the price of oil has been so long and sustained.)
the rig count, however, has dropped right off and exploration is really slowing.
As the very intelligent Rick Rule says; “the cure for low prices is low prices.”
Once the hedges are worked through supply will plummet, as only largely only sovereign Middle East producers and Russia may be left producing.
Keep your eye on the Russian index. We think a MAJOR bottom is struck this year.
I agree, the bottom should occur this year.
Same with Brazil. We are tracking a number of world markets along with commods . . and we think a MAJOR bottom will be seen this year in equities and commods all over the world and a broad based rally will take us higher for several more years before a REAL bear market takes hold in the US markets.,
That seems most plausible.
I might add that hedging is much more common in the oil and gas business than in mining.
This is certainly the case since Barrick really got caught badly with long term hedging a few years ago, after production costs rose highly due to rising oil and labor costs.
Just thinking……
According to recent reports, U.S. ambassador, Robert Godec, met last week with Kenyan energy secretary Alfred Keter to discuss building the Kenyan pipeline. Godec stated that “Kenya needs $18 billion worth of financing” for the pipeline, and “one of the questions we are discussing is how we can work together with the private sector and governments…to make certain that this financing becomes available.”
In agreeing to work with the Kenyan government to help finance the project it appears the Obama Administration has actually proven that the so-called “environmental concerns” it cited in denying the Keystone XL were nothing more than a political farce to appease green interests groups. The fact is the proposed pipeline in Kenya would run through the Great Rift Valley, an area much more sensitive than the proposed Keystone path as it is home to a number of endangered species.
He said that Professor.
I justwas looking at the economic data for December.
Consumer Credit
I thought consumers were tapped out.
Clearly I was wrong.
Credit greatly exceeded expectations.
reported $21.3Billion
expected $16.5B
previously $14.0B
Nothing like easy money, Professor!
Peter you CAN have it both ways when it comes to PMs. Gold/silver is a win win both for 2016 and beyond. Best, A
Al Korelin,
Al, how many times in the past have I told you Avi Gilbert is no good. He is venimous to everyone.
You need to seriously have a talk with him or remove him entirely from your guest list.
Gary Savage has once been chased away from the likes of Avi are you going to allow it again before Gary and others just say, screw this I am out of here. It is just not worth the aggravation.
the management
If Gary decides to be chased away that is his decision. He told us specifically that too many folks on this site disagreed with him and that it was taking too much of his time to respond to them.
Do you remember the large number of listeners who left our site when we first brought him on?
We will be verifying his predictions to determine if those angry folks have any merit.
Gary was also a Daily commentator here and he left with no notice by telling us he was “going on vacation to Mexico” we believed him and then he told us about three weeks later.
That is a fact Dave.
yes
I distinctly remember that. Just observe Al and you will see that what I say is correct.
Avi is a confrontational being. Disrepect is rampant in his posts.
Gary, Doc,Chris, Rick are all respectful, courteous gentlemen.
After playing this game for 30+ years, I have seen it time and time again.
I must say that Gary has been the ONLY analyst that I know who said that the breaking of the evident H&S on HUI was possibly a fake.
The whole world was awaiting for another miners downleg,Rambus,Jordan Ray Byrne,Dan Norcini etc….
I don’t know if this will prove to be THE bottom but FOR SURE Gary Savage made a GREAT CALL and the ones who followed his advice did made some money.
I rate both Avi and Gary as very able analysts,I don’t understand why they continue to fight in this childish way.
That is exactly what I said. He was alone in making that call. And I respect it very much.
“We have not seen the degree of bearishness in gold that one would expect, given the magnitude of the decline. Further, so many retail investors are very anxious to see gold fall below $1000 so they can pile in. At the real bottom, these same investors won’t be so sure that gold is going to the moon.”
Here is a comment from one of my subs who tried Avi’s service. Again I’ll say everyone can judge for themselves if he’s the greatest metals analyst on the planet or whether he’s just the greatest salesman.
Hi Gary, I saw the little back and forth with Avi Gilbert on Korelin website. I can give my own feedback because I tried Avi’s service. It was not good, IMO. It was very frenetic and difficult to use. I do think he makes very good uses of Fibonacci levels. But I really could not see how anyone can make money using his service. He is always presenting his opposite Elliott wave scenarios and then later claiming he was 100% right. In fact, he does his salesman job too excessively. I find that is the worst part about Avi. Every time he comes on Korelin’s show he is bragging how he was 100% right and his subscribers are making fortunes. Well, I tried his service and it was not that great.!
I must also mention, I have a great respect for Doc’s technical work. But you are right. He did not expect this explosive move up in GDX. Not at all. And I missed this GDX move up because I was so complacent – listening to Doc….
Don’t forget Avi started this when all I was trying to do was agree with Doc that gold should have a short term pullback soon.
OK back into hibernation for me. This kind of BS is the reason I quit doing the daily interviews in the first place. Sigh….
Gary, you came down from on high to let us know Doc was right. I am not sure who you think you are, as Doc is DAMN good and really does not you telling us that Doc is right. He has been a lot more accurate during this run than you have.
Now, when your own supposed subscriber is saying that he missed something in the market because he was following Doc and not YOU . . what does that say about this supposed subscriber of your or the trust they have in your analysis?.
But, in truth, I don’t believe this was a sub of mine, and I believe you probably made this up. While we are not for everyone, but anyone that has taken the time to learn what we do has stayed in our service. The ones that leave are the ones who do not want to put the work into learning what we teach.
And, again, there is a reason we have grown to 2500 subscribers in a period of 4 years without doing any advertising at all . . and have a very low turnover rate . . . maybe it is because we are pretty good . . again, not for everyone . . but surely for anyone who puts in the effort:
Feel free to look:
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/testimonials.php
Beyond that, one of my analysts came in 2nd in the World Cup Trading Championship with a 176% return for 2015, another one of my analysts had a 406% total return for subscribers in 2015, another had a 44% return for subs, and another one had a win rate of 80.2%.
Again, we are not perfect, and don’t claim to be. But, we are pretty darn good.
Unfortunately, when I have looked at what others have said about you, it was not so good . . truthfully, even I was embarrassed to post it here it was that bad – in addition to your win rate being lower than Cramers.
So, yes, I would suggest you stay clear of this, and move on.
Have a nice weekend.
Doc was WAY off on his gold predictions. The complete opposite is happening. He said gold would be range bound from 950 – 1100 for 2016. That’s what his technicals were telling him. I quote “gold is going nowhere” buy in the spring. Now we’re at 1174. It’s the beginning of Feb still. He will probably have one of the biggest misses on gold for 2016. Whether he wants to admit this is another thing.
I can tell you that he admits everything if proven inaccurate.
Ronny,
I’ll put my 2cts on this one coz you seem to be annoyed about Richard/Doc’s prediction being wrong this time.
IMHO, based on what I have heard him saying on Kereport for about 2yrs now (I started listening to KER in Jan 2014 I think), Richard probably has, AND BY FAR, the best track record of all guys you can hear over here when you combine precious metals/oil/conventional markets. That’s obviously if you listen to him on a daily basis and pay attention to what he says and “compare” what others are saying.
More importantly, rule #1 in money management is preserving capital. Let me repeat that: preserving capital.
To my knowledge, since I’ve started listening to him, I struggle to find many instances where Richard indicated he was bullish on something and the thing went down.
So said differently, if you listen to him and just try to implement what he says, you haven’t had many opportunities to lose money –> i.e. you haven’t destroyed your capital. This again, is rule #1: capital preservation.
Now, if you follow some other chaps and you thought the bottom was in here and there, either in gold or in oil, chances are you found yourself or still find yourself upside down. And good luck for your capital preservation, unless you have the guts to add more capital at lower levels.
So now, I’ll opine on Richard’s specific call to you and us for 2016: he’s been wrong on this, so what?
First of all, no-one, and I mean no-one gets all calls right all the time. No one.
What matters is how much you lose when you’re wrong and how much do you make when you win. That is money management. The best in the business get it wrong about 1 time out of 3. That’s much worse than Richard’s batting average, but that’s beside the point.
So, have you lost money on this specific call for 2016 ? Or have you just “lost an opportunity of a few dozens dollars in this gold move”?
IF you’re trying to time the bottom, good luck to you – coz luck is what you are gonna need if the bottom is not in.
And I’ll say this: IF you have capital and you are interested in gold and you didn’t deploy capital at $1040, $1050, $1060… as Avi Gilburt said last year: “if you don’t buy gold here, you don’t belong to this market”.
IF you buy gold to speculate, I am not sure you buy it for the right reasons – but everyone’s different and has various preferences.
To finish, I’ll remind you something.
Richard/Doc graciously gives him time everyday and provides his views for free on a daily basis.
If you are not happy to receive some advice for free, maybe you can go on the websites of newsletter writers and trading gurus who will be EXTREMELY happy to charge your credit card against some advice/recommendations.
And if you still expect each of them to get it 100% right all the time, I think you will have to adjust your expectations and your perspective on financial markets – and it’s probably something that applies to your expectations about life in general.
And IF finally you think you’ve missed a lot becoz Richard was wrong on this 2016 call so far… well, I think we just have a different perspective on what investing is about, esp. when it comes to time horizons.
GL to you.
LPG
Fair enough. I just didn’t like how people were beating up Gary on his calls. They were giving doc all the praise when he to was wrong. I apologize. Doc saved me some cash on teranga but at the same time I missed a nice jump bc i reallocated some cash. Which ultimately im to blame. Should’ve stuck with my gut feeling. Luckily my kinross options came through big time on Friday. 10k one day. It’s a tough game you guys play making public predictions. Sorry doc. I do respect your opinion and it’s just that. An opinion and there are several of them out there. Thanks lpg
You’re welcome Ronny.
Thank you for your understanding.
Best to you,
LPG
Ronny, no problem—-for the first time I made the mistake of just supplying a guess without corroboration from my technicals. I shouldn’t have done that and won’t in the future. Obviously, gold has gone higher then I thought on this move but be careful after February. This time (based on my technicals), gold should move down through April at least. I believe we’ll see about 1120 or lower for the next low.
We are truly fortunate to have Rickard(Doc)on this site.
Now I have really seen everything! How can anyone criticize Doc for one ‘almost correct’ forecast?? Are you expecting him to be God Almighty? All knowing? Are you expecting him to send you some cash from his bank account?
I think most everyone who has been around this website will soon see that Doc may be the finest gentleman on this side of Mississippi. And his technical analysis is top rated. I am just so grateful that he hangs around here and help small investors like me.
I don’t have a dog in this Avi, but I can honestly say that Gary is not making this up.
I saw the person’s post on Gary’s site myself.
It didn’t affect my opinion of you or Gary much because, frankly, it’s like restaurants, clothing, or anything else….some things fit better for one than another, but it doesn’t necessarily mean what was bad for a particular person IS bad, just that it didn’t work for that person.
Personally I think this is a stupid argument.
You are going to make some great calls and you are going to make some terrible calls.
The same with Gary.
It’s not that every call has to be great, it’s about how the RISK around those calls is managed, so we get out quickly when a terrible call is made and we ride the gains as long as possible on the great calls.
There are MORE than enough profits to go around, regardless of whose system one uses.
I cannot verify this Gary, so, from now on these types of comments will be trashed.
Well… it is verified. I am the author. I subscribe to Gary’s service. I wrote it because I thought Avi’s comment against Gary was quite unfair. There is no need to harp on forecasts that did not work out and get personal.
I’ll thrown in my 2cts on this one and on Avi’s methodology.
Every time I hear something along the lines of “something is complicated so it’s difficult to use”, I get interested. I ask myself: is it the thing that is complicated ? or is it that the person didn’t put the effort necessary to master the thing properly ?
As I’ve written previously on KEREPORT, I’ve used the free-trial on Avi’s website in the past, and I’ve been in several of his trading rooms. I’m not a subscriber, and I don’t receive anything from him. So I feel pretty unbiased and “conflict-of-interest-free” to post the following.
I did a free trial on Avi’s website and didn’t follow-up on this w. a subscription because i could not follow the Elliot counts properly. And it is not because the count are complicated: it is because I didn’t put the effort. In other word, the issue is not him/the Elliot Wave + Fibonacci method, it is me. I repeat: without making the effort to learn the method, the problem is myself, not the method.
Many of us believe that we can just start something and in a few hours we’ll “get it”/understand it and bang, we’ll get rich. Financial markets don’t work like that. You can be as smart as you want…. but being successful is a lot of hard work. A lot. And a lot of hours of dedication. A lot. Being smart without hard work doesn’t lead you far.
As most of you know, Doc/Richard and I exchange daily. A few months ago (summer 2015), I was not using Bollinger Bands (BBs) in the array of tools I used back then. Last sumer, I told Richard that, basically, I didn’t use BBs as they seemed complicated and I didn’t really want to put the effort to try and learn them because what I was using as tools was fine for me. However, sometimes, my technical tools (which didn’t include Bollinger Bands back then) could not give me clear signals, while Richard had clear signals and was later on proven right.
So guess what? I’ve made some effort and started to learn about Bollinger Bands. Now I use them ALL THE TIME. And my investing/trading has gone up another notch.
Likewise, I was not using Fibonacci. I’m increasingly using it as I trade. But I keep it very basic. And it works pretty well.
So for me, these are 2 cases were I have the following sequence: INTELLECTUAL EFFORT –> HOURS DEDICATED TO LEARN/WORK –> FINANCIAL REWARD. It’s as simple as that really.
I love driving and I suspect most of us do. I love driving…. fast. And when I say f-a-s-t, I mean f-a-s-t.
Now try to drive fast (again, I mean f-a-s-t) without having a good understanding of your tires quality, your tires pressure, the difference in pressure between the front and the back, if your car as front wheel drive or rear wheel drive or all wheel drive, and lastly and more importantly, a good understanding of what I call “masses transfer”. Or better: if you don’t know all that, for your own safety, forget the driving fast part. Really. Forget it. What I’m trying to say here is the same: without spending the time and make the effort to acquire knowledge, and serious activity is unlikely to produce results.
If you don’t make the effort to lear a few things about physics applied to cars, driving a car fast is likely to end badly. Very badly. If you try to be involved in markets trading stocks, or ETFs, or levered ETFs without having a good grasp of “what you are doing”, it’s also gonna end badly for your portfolio. Soon or later. [You can make money for a while being lucky, but don’t forget luck reverts to the mean]. And to have a good grasp of what you are doing, you need to spend hours of work. Plenty.
Now, because you spend hours learning something about markets doesn’t mean you will be right all the time, or it doesn’t mean that you will not have accident if you are driving. But it means that what you have learned should avoid you fatal accidents/portfolio blow ups. Let’s never forget: managing money is first and foremost MANAGING RISK. So how can one manage risk if he hasn’t got the tools to manage it, or if he doesn’t even fully comprehend what it means to start with? Just food for thought…
Going back to markets, I’ve discussed here about technical analysis as a way of apprehending them.
I am aware many among the KER community think technical analysis is BS and that at the end, fundamentals prevail. That’s right: in the end, fundamentals do prevail. But until fundamentals prevail, it could be days, weeks, months, or… years. Sound familiar ?
A good grasp of technical analysis help in telling now is probably the time to trim/get out of a position, and now is the time to add a bit/add big to a position. Technical analysis is the same as using fundamentals: to make the best use of each, one has to spend hours of work. And without that dedication and work, I don’t think one can discuss them with much legitimacy.
I use fundamentals to look at macro ideas.
I also use fundamentals when I look at stocks: I look at their story, their financial statements, I do some valuation models for regularly. That helps me – but that’s a lot of work to do.
I look at charts and I use technical analysis: that helps me too – but that’s also a lot of work.
And it helps me only because I’ve put the effort to learn it in the first place too.
**********
So to conclude, I’ll go back to my initial point.
I’ve been on Avi’s website and his various trading rooms. He and his analysts do a very fine job, a VERY FINE JOB.
They don’t get everything right, but they don’t make crazy calls which put your portfolio in trouble.
This, I think, shows the professionalism/quality of the risk management he and his team uses. Anyone who is a sceptic should just go to his website and do a 2 weeks free-trial. No credit card information is required.
As a background, and just to provide some perspective, I assisted managing a few hundreds of millions of USD in the not too distant past… so I believe I have a “little idea” of what proper risk management is about when I see it in action.
As far as his method is concerned, I didn’t really put the effort, so I AM the one to blame. NOT his method.
There are people who say the way Avi looks at markets is always two-sided and he can never be called wrong: that is inaccurate IMHO. There is a way to understand what he says. If you don’t try to learn it, you will not get it. Plain simple.
I feel lucky to be able to converse in several languages.
So I’ll suggest this little experiment: try to express yourself in German the way you express yourself in Spanish. I doesn’t work. Why ? Because the structure of the language is different. So first you have to learn the structure of the language.
Try to express yourself italian the way you express yourself in Arabic. It doesn’t work for the same reasons. You have to learn the language structure first.
Try to express yourself in … Whatever. You get the point.
If you do not make the effort to understand how something works, how something is structured, you will NEVER get it. NEVER. But because you do not get it, you should not blame the thing you tried to mast. You should, humbly, realize/admit/conceal that you just didn’t put the effort. Blame your own “laziness”… and stop looking for external factors/outside excuses.
When I don’t make the effort, I blame my laziness.
When I am not diligent enough in my analysis and miss something, I blame myself for being sloppy – ask Richard/Doc about that: he hears me bashing myself once in a while.
When one of my trades go wrong, I don’t blame the market – I try to find what my analysis missed.
When my fundamental views are not in line with the performance of the asset in the market, I don’t blame/cry manipulation: I FIRSTLY tell myself there is something I am missing.
********
I am not that smart so I try to compensate by hours of work.
I also came to a personal conclusion that in life, most of the issues come from ourselves, and our cognitive biases: not the outside world. So in order to be able to master the world better, I work on myself and my biases FIRST.
But that’s just me.
My 2cts.
LPG
Notice what I did with this comment.
LPG – There are too many great points brought up to comment on them, so I’ll leave it at:
Well said.
BEST SHOW EVER!!
Thank you Jonathon. It was really fun to put together.
I respect Avi and Gary, but from what I catch as a long time follower and comment reader is Avi often seems POed. Doesn’t make him a bad fella in my book. I’m just making an observation. To me, Gary would probably be a little more fun to have a beer with.
In my humble opinion Gary makes great directional calls and people have got to keep in mind he’s a trader. His calls are actionable and he owns them like a boss. There’s no, “Next month will tell the story.” Or, “If this and this happens there’s a good chance we go up, but we could also go down.” As an option trader you can make bank being right consistently over 50% of the time. If anyone knows an option or futures trader that’s right over 60% of the time message me as it’s worth huge money, but I already know one doesn’t exist as he or she would be a trillionaire. As an aside I think a lot of the people making negative comments about calls from anyone on this site are not looking at these calls through the eyes of a trader. Finally you can’t rely on on just one guy for trading advice. I follow half a dozen and I wait until the majority are saying the same thing AND I feel it too before pulling the trigger. Works great and I’ve done well over the last few years, but my trades still fail over 40% of the time.
In summary, NO ONE makes perfect calls 100% of the time, but we can all make perfect hugs.
You are truly a good person, Dutch. God bless.
The argument between Avi and Gary is unseemly.
The market is bigger than any one trader or analyst and humbles everyone. The most famous traders of al time have been wrong at times and suffered big drawdowns or wipeouts. Jesse Livermore, Richard Dennis, Paul Tudor Jones, etc.
Even Warren Buffet had, what, a 50% drawdown during the great recession and if the Fed hadn’t come to the rescue could have suffered a wipe out.
The analysts here (all of them) should express their opinions without attacking others. And if they can’t do that, they shouldn’t be permitted to have this forum. They should also admit to everyone that they are not perfect and acknowledge when their calls go awry.
Words of true wisdom, Eric. Thank you.
Exactly right. Which is why as the deflationary panic in 2016 picks up (we are nowhere near the puke point), you have to be extremely prudent in your allocation. I’ve been extremely bearish too early admittedly, but always at least 85%+ cash, and NEVER any big bets or double digit drawdowns.
I continue to roll over cheap out of the money puts on the general market indexes.
From Investor’s Business Daily:
Minimum Wages Surged In 6 Cities Last Year; Then This Happened:
Hiring at restaurants, hotels and other leisure and hospitality sector venues slowed markedly last year in metro areas that saw big minimum-wage hikes, new Labor Department data show.
Wherever cities implemented big minimum-wage hikes to $10 an hour or more last year, the latest data through December show that job creation downshifted to the slowest pace in at least five years.
Liberals fighting for a dramatic increase in the minimum wage have insisted that there would be a negligible impact on job creation. Though the data are preliminary and overly broad, Washington D.C., Oakland, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Chicago seem to be finding out that the reality isn’t so benign.
A slowdown in job growth can fly below the radar, at least for those who aren’t seeking low-wage work. But the risk of raising the minimum wage too high became fairly obvious last month, when Wal-Mart (WMT) bolted from Oakland and Los Angeles and scrapped plans for two stores in low-income areas of D.C.
The big shortcoming in the available data for 5 of the 6 cities is that they cover broad metro areas, far beyond the city limits where wage hikes took effect. Still, the uniform result of much slower job growth in the low-wage leisure and hospitality sector, even as the pace of job gains held steady in surrounding areas, sends a pretty powerful signal.
Makes sense Professor.
I absolutely loved the battle that went on above.
Makes this site what it is. All very interesting and entertaining.
Many different point of views.
Most of the time I’m here I just read the comments. Lots of fun.
Gary, Avi and Doc – please do all keep coming and offering your opinions.
Us readers and investors can draw our own conclusions and make our own investing decisions based on your comments if we so decide.
I’ve learnt so much from all 3 of you in the past and hope to learn more in the future.
Please keep coming back and lease don’t change. Big egos and big ideas make this world tick.
Doc and Avi certainly will. Not too sure about Gary. It is a free country.
Tony, thanks for the comments. I’ve a few blind spots but one thing I’ve not been able to acquire over time is a “big ego”—I’m afraid I’ve not been too successful.
Your ego is fine Doc.
Humble as always.
The other two.
I don’t how they fit in the same room.
Yet another spat between Avi and Gary.
How did it start? Avi taking a shot at Gary, unprovoked and wrong. Gary presented his reasoning for why people should be in, why this *could* be the bottom, and his reasoning is sound.
Avi, why do you keep grinding this ax? You truly do seem to want to present yourself as a Guru who can see the future. And you’ve accused Gary of being a liar in this exchange?
None of this makes you look good. Apparently you don’t realize that. You’d do better to let your success speak for itself, and leave it at that.
The Bernie Madoff tv special was a good watch this week. Still reminds me of all the risk which is still in the system……….jmho
DANG………….THE VELVET HAMMER IS OUT AGAIN………..LOL
I have a lot of respect for Avi Gilburt and Gary Savage,but i am a bit surprised that
two professional traders let there emotions take over like this.
Thank you Al,Cory,Rick,Chris and the Doctor you guys have a great site!
ditto
Thank you, Pete..
Agree
Classic stuff between Avi and Savage!
Classic!
May i suggest to anyone investing, study the market, buy low sell high and never give money to anyone except a commission to a broker to do your trades
Totally agree with your comments about different opinions Tony. As for you’re being right all the time, there’s no argument there!! Best, A
I just dragged a full leg of Pork off the BBQ for dinner an hour ago.
The ‘Crackling’ was absolutely sublime.
…..there is obviously absolutely no manipulation in the pork or charcoal markets….as I nail the same result everytime.
Cheers.
“Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra
Ain’t that the truth, Power.
I trade in my retirement time…This Gary and Avi behavior is repressed anger….as calm as traders need to be, ‘IT’ lurks like MR. Hydes shadow…..we are only naked apes with the illusion of awareness…..
larry
Thanks Larry. Probably true.
Avengers are back. Thank you AL.