Just how big a role will the energy sector play in the future?
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Gold soften a bit today; energy (as measured by oil) declined; and, the conventional markets basically tread water.
Re: PPP
mentioned on seeking alpha today
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3878956-worst-gold-stocks-industry-update-bottom-5-picks
Thanks, CFS. I know the story, but I don’t think the ruling would be retroactive if it passes, and PPP’s lawyers think they will win anyway. Even if they lose, the recent plunge may still be too much of a correction. Their Canadian mines are worth something.
CFS – Good article on the 5 stocks to avoid in 2016 according to that analyst:
5. Primero Mining (NYSE:PPP)
4. Continental Gold (OTCQX:CGOOF)
3. Rubicon Minerals (NYSEMKT:RBY)
2.Tanzanian Royalty Exploration:
1. Timmins Gold (NYSEMKT:TGD)
I agree with the author of the article that he may have called Timmins Gold incorrectly, but the rest have not been on my watch list or want list.
Rubicon is going to be delisted from American markets.
But I think what’s going on with that company is they may be involved in either a revenue-based or asset based financing and are looking to squeeze out the shareholders and attempt to privatize. (Amalagamation Squeeze Out)
Someone else mentioned this yesterday and I agreed……Brent Cook has been mentioning for about 2-3 years that he didn’t think Rubicon had an economic deposit, that their resource estimate made a lot of assumptions, and overall it was sloppy exploration work. He said he would be surprised if they were ever economical, so I’ve personally avoided it ever since then. There are too many other great companies on sale to risk it on a half-baked plan.
thanks Fran6……and EX……..for the info……………..
Brent Cook is a short sellers godsend.
That being said, you can look up who’s buying and selling as of late on ‘b-a-a-d news’
http://quote.morningstar.ca/Quicktakes/Owners/OwnersOverview.aspx?t=RMX®ion=CAN&culture=en-CA
thanks again………..appreciate…………
Tanzanian…….Sinclair will not like that pick………
These are the stocks to avoid not ones to recommend….
Here’s what that author wrote (in case you don’t have a login for Seeking Alpha):
__________________________________________________________________________
From that article:
2.Tanzanian Royalty Exploration: Down 31.03%
“As I mentioned in the last article, Tanzanian Royalty is just an odd company that has yet to accomplish anything despite being a publicly traded company since 2005.
On July 8, the company said it negotiated $1.53 million worth of “bullion loans” to try to advance some of its Tanzania projects to production. I’ve never heard of a bullion loan before; not only that, there’s no mention of who the actual lender is. I thought it was a very suspicious release, among other numerous releases.
On Feb. 4, 2016, the company said there has been an invasion and forced occupation by several hundred illegal miners on its properties. According to the company: “This continuing intrusion into our mines now at night is well known to the government authorities, as are the active illegal mining operations taking place right on our border. We ordered our security force to stand down in order to prevent a more serious confrontation. This event, we believe, may have been incited by an energetic speech made in the local village by the Deputy Minister of Energy and Minerals stating that land would be given to the artisans for legal mining within 14 days. On the 15th day the large invasion took place. ”
There really isn’t any good reason to own shares of Tanzanian. Shares are down 31% since the article was published, and will likely fall further in the coming months.”
Invasion by the bullion loan bandits………bullion loans are just a loan against the bull you on, and lioning on top of that.
bull you on….. bullion ….. I love it.
I should correct that as Primero is on my watch list, but not my want list. Having said that, if this move down gets even more exaggerated, I may place a contrarian’s bet on them for short-term snap-back trade. Got see how this tax issue works out.
being a contrarian has it’s advantages……………….ccf
Absolutely Contrarians Contrarian Frank 😉
BTW……………THANKS FOR THE INFO…………….great job………..
THANKS CFS……for the post…………..
Bonzo, it’s heading down.
Thanks, Doc. I’ll wait.
Ask the people of NH what their most important concern is…….drugs, heroin use.
You sure wouldn’t know by political debate!
Chris what you think of Odin mining Ecuador ? Ross Beaty ? Thank’s !
GOLD ! Down 0,02 % in $ Is diss no totally insane ? More middle east war coming and a verry low OIL PRICE ! Insanity RULLES !
Yes Franky. Insanity rules.
TD warns the majority of Canadian oil production is bleeding cash
Jameson Berkow, Reporter, BNN – 11:48 AM, E.T. | February 9, 2016
Odin Mining – Corporate Presentation
Taking a closer look at them
I’m just a peon but I think gold has bottomed as Gary said. This last rally feels impulsive – not short covering – more like fresh buying. I wouldn’t be surprised if gold just goes sideways here, frustrating folks (like me) who missed the rise and are out – then continues to impulse higher, and higher, and higher. I’m not a cycles guy like Gary is, but I do think he’s nailed this bottom. IMO.
Bill
I have recently been learning about the stages of sectors; it has been instructive, solely, to understand when to invest with the least amount of risk (Stage 2 of four stages). Whether or not PM stocks are entering Stage 2 (Or gold, the metal, is in stage 1) is a matter of opinion.
Here is a really good article summarizing the 4 stages. I suggest reading this article, then digging deeper.
http://www.nextbigtrade.com/stage-analysis/
Brian
Here is
Thank Brian……….nice explanation ……..
Very nice.
30 week MA. Interesting.
Brian – You’ll probably enjoy this video about Tahoe buying out Lake Share Gold.
This analyst thinks it is a fair price, but that it was bad timing with Gold bottoming and after 3 years of developing their mines, getting costs down, and the balance sheet in good order. He feels there would have been more upside if they had stayed independent, and I’d agree. Regardless, it is a nice overview.
They also mention Richmont, Claude, Detour, Kirkland Lake’s takeover of St Andrew Goldfield, and Goldcorp.
___________________________________________________________________
Tahoe Resources to buy Lake Shore Gold for $945M
Mon, Feb 8, 2016
Thanks Ex
I sold my LSG position for 41% profit. Not going to wait to see how the sale transpires and buying other PM Miners to fill the gap in my portfolio.
Brian
Well done sir.
I really think what has happened recently with this acquisition of Lake Shore Gold by Tahoe Resources is similar to what happened with Romarco’s acquisition by OceanaGold. The acquiring company is getting a hell of a deal, but the longer term shareholders of Lake Shore Gold and Romarco didn’t get the reward of the leverage to the upside of the rebounding PM market, like they would have if they’d remained much smaller and independent. It’s shopping time. This is the time where the Mid-Tiers and Majors will be shopping for properties to add production or exploration with the stroke of a pen.
Hi Bill,
Lots of people called that. We will see what happens.
Hi Al – I respectfully disagree. Gary called this back in December I think it was. He was referring to the COT among other things. There might have been a few folks, but I don’t know of any, not w/the conviction that Gary had. I’m sure I don’t read as many articles as you though, so probably that’s why you say that.
Even now, I think everyone’s just saying that “MAYBE it’s the bottom – we won’t know until later”, type thing.
No one cal look ahead and know the future. But Gary’s got these CYCLES, which my understanding is that the loner term cycles are still working, despite all the gold dumping at 4 am or whatever. So Gary’s edge is cycles, is why I think he’s able to anticipate a bottom when it’s about to occur.
oops – typo – last para … “No one can look ahead …”
… and if Gary’s long term cycles are right and still working, then I 100% agree w/him that the best thing to do is BUY AND HOLD for the next 5 yrs.
The close for the gold market is 2:30pm. EDT, so the closing price is challenging the 89-week EMA, the first time in a long time. We are also seeing a moving average crossover in the 13-week EMA and the 24-week EMA.
The last time that the RSI(14) and CCI(8) crossover occurred off the low was in June, 2013 before a short-lived springboard rally. This was the bottom for the gold price in various currencies, but not the $US.
I don’t believe this was a false indication, but we had instead a corralling of the financial interest of the gold sector into derivatives. What we wound up with is a ‘Volatility Skew’
Duel citizenship for Cruz is going to be a problem …..since, it did not exist in 1970, at the time of Cruz’s birth. Mother does not count. Marc Salvo article …FSN.
Financial Survival Network….
Dual………not duel………Donald and Cruz will be in the duel with their pop guns.
Ha!
Not convinced that Cruz will stay in there. Are you watching the NH results?
wrong….. WRONG
Cruz passes the CONSTITUTION REQUIREMENTS!
He might pass muster here , but, there seems to be a problem with the Canadian side of his birth rights in both locations.
THE Constitution requires that you be a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN SUBJECT TO THE LAWS OF THE US at the time of birth.
He WAS a US CITIZEN at his birth subject to the laws of he US with respect to citizenship.
He was also a CANADIAN citizen technically at that time. Provided he did NOT REVOKE US CITIZENSHIP, he is illegible, just as children of armed service personnel or ambassadors, etc, born OUTSIDE of US.
E.g. Senator McCain who ran for President.
Better read the article………….Which says…….”according to the Canadian law, in 1970, he could not be BOTH..a Dual citizenship did not exist.
McCain is different in that he was born on a military base…., and I think there is more to the birth while in military…..ever battleships have their own us zip codes
ever to every.
should read every battleship….sorry
…Should read even battleships Frank…lol!
how about, even every battleship…………… 🙂
say it 3 times fast…..
even every battleship has their own zip code
even every battleship has their own zip code
even every battleship has their own zip code
IRISH tried it , and said…..battlesh@t, and what the heck is a zip coder…….
Ha!
GOOD TOPIC , AND thanks for the follow up…….it should be interesting going forward, to see how this all shakes out……………….
Cruz wouldn’t be Prime Minister of Canada, he doesn’t have the birthright, that being a member of the Trudeau family.
Fed tells banks to prepare for possible negative rates:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/09/from-zirp-to-nirp-whats-the-feds-next-move.html
value investing , negative rates:
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/wp-content/uploads/ica2016-0203.mp3
Cruz is a Goldman Sacks puppet, How much did he borrow ?
And his wife is a Goldman Sacks big wig who’s part of the problem.
Not to mention his crazy religious views.
Cruz’s wife borrowed money against her stock portfolio at Goldman.
It was fully secured by her portfolio.
Ted Cruz reported this as a senator in two out of three places where he was supposed to.
The loan, which already has been paid back, was for approx $1 million.
Cruz associates with disgusting people.
While some constitutional issues are truly difficult, with framing-era sources either nonexistent or contradictory, here, the relevant materials clearly indicate that a “natural born Citizen” means a citizen from birth with no need to go through naturalization proceedings. The Supreme Court has long recognized that two particularly useful sources in understanding constitutional terms are British common law3×
3. See Smith v. Alabama, 124 U.S. 465, 478 (1888).
and enactments of the First Congress.4×
4. See Wisconsin v. Pelican Ins. Co., 127 U.S. 265, 297 (1888).
Both confirm that the original meaning of the phrase “natural born Citizen” includes persons born abroad who are citizens from birth based on the citizenship of a parent.
A rough day for me today but my Netflix position is starting to fly. I had a better day yesterday as I was in cash at the open and did some buying.
Did you know that Trump Airlines, a shuttle that ran for 3 years and then defaulted on its loans, going bankrupt?
Did you know Trump University, which opened in 2005 but closed in 2012; it and Trump are being sued by New York State for fraud? The NY Attorney General is asking for $40 million.
Did you know that Trump Steakhouse in Las Vegas was closed down after being cited for 55 health violations?
How about Trump Entertainment Resorts that owned 3 casinos in Atlantic City; filed for bankruptcy 3 times for reorganization, before filing for bankruptcy a fourth time and giving up?
How about Trump vodka: from 2006-2011. Business failed.
Howw about the US Football League, in which Trump bought the New Jersey Generals. and then lobbied hard for the league to change from a spring schedule to a fall schedule.
It could not compete against the NFL….Failed.
The other members of the league blamed Trump.
In 1986 Trump tried to slip his plane out of a hangar without paying storage fees. Caught. Fined.
Over the course of his life, so far has fleeced the public by bankruptcy for $4 billion.
This is not someone I would describe as a good businessman.
He has had good attorneys, but he is not that intelligent, in my opinion.
I, personally, would not want him for my President, primarily because I am sure he does not care about the US Constitution.
I think it’s funny that people think they need a president. The whole thing is silly. With only the possible exception of Coolidge, not one president in the last 100 years has cared about the constitution.
Good point, CFS – he’s a serial bankrupt.
While I agree that the obvious spot for this second daily cycle to top would be at the $1200 level, I also know that the job of an initial rally out of a bear market bottom is to inflict maximum pain on shorts trying to hold their positions in denial of the trend change, and inflict maximum anxiety on bulls that have missed the rally.
The dollar is in real trouble right now, and still several weeks from it’s next cycle low. How many people would be prepared to see gold rally all the way to the 23% Fibonacci retracement before a short term top?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61879794554&a=444782762&listNum=1
I agree completely. Leaving bulls behind is how a bull market stays healthy.
Would you anticipate a pullback from these overbought conditions first, possibly down to the $1120 area, before heading back up to $1248 at the 23% Fib level?
Or conversely, do you think maybe Gold will make it 3 days a charm and on the next test break through & close above the $1200 line in the sand?
As overbought as it is, I think it’s going to at least 1210 (the 377 week EMA) before correcting.
It was stopped today by the 500 day EMA.
In the bears favor is the fact that gold has not taken out the October high on a closing basis yet. I think it will tomorrow but a decline will be no surprise since it is very overbought. It could be that it will have just a very shallow correction to get short energy on the side of the bulls for a final push. The RSI might just pull back to 70.
Good thoughts on the 377 EMA at $1210. M.A.’s Socrates wants a daily close above $1208. Jim Wycoff has a buy stop at $1207.70, and then $1220.
So $1207.70-$1210 will be interesting to watch as a resistance level.
Most Bullish: Gold could correct to the 1160-ish area as a backtest, then break above 1200, then back-test, then continue upwards.
Probably, though: Re-test the famous $1111 line
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54442303213&a=444556627&listNum=1
Good chart showing the trendline support. The 38.2% and 50% retracement seem like reasonable pullback targets.
Most bullish, in my opinion, would be for gold to extend this move up significantly enough that even a large pullback afterward would not take it back to where the abandoned bulls are hoping.
It’s a real show of strength that Monday’s gap up in GLD remains open.
Mind the gap. (it’ll likely get filled)
But yes it has been a very strong move to the upside thus far.
Given the overbought reading, one would think that the will definitely get filled, but gold itself has no gap and it would be better and very bullish if GLD’s stays open.
Check out these huge GDX gaps that stayed open for more than four years…
Those who stayed out because of that 8% one missed tripling their money.
This time, GDX left three gaps again but each is only about 1%.
I agree, if GDX can leave that gap it would be very bullish indeed, and as you showed it has a history of having done so in the past, so it is better to always have some positions in place.
Here’s some thoughts from Jim WycKoff this morning:
Gold Sees Normal Corrective Pullback Following Recent Strong Gains
Wednesday February 10, 2016 – Jim Wyckoff
Technically, April gold futures prices are in an accelerating seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,232.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $1,164.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,194.80 and then at this week’s high of $1,201.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,181.80 and then at $1,175.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
Thanks for your good summary, now I don’t need to click on your link. 🙂
Correction – if GLD can leave that gap like GDX has in the past it would be bullish.
Too many “G” tickers…..
Oh come on – The link has info on the Fed, and Oil, and other neat stuff….. It’s a great chance to read what good old Jimbo thinks on a macro level this morning.
P.S. – I also didn’t post his Silver support and resistance levels and I know you’re curious about those……
Ok, FINE. I’ll click. 😐
funny.
Here is Jim’s Silver support & resistance levels for anyone that doesn’t want to click:
“March silver bulls also have upside momentum as a three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Prices Monday hit a 3.5-month high. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.60. First resistance is at Monday’s high of $15.48 and then at $15.75. Next support is seen at $15.00 and then at $14.90. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.”
Ya tricked me! I could’ve just waited for your silver summary! 🙁
Ha! only a half a trick… I didn’t post anything on his macro view, Oil, or the Fed.
That is the bonus that only people that click on the article get 😉
But I’m not interested in who was fed an oily mackerel. 😉
Thanks Gary. Sure seems like something fundamental has changed wrt mindset and we’ve moved from bear market rules to bull market rules, as you say
+1 Plenty has definitely changed.
Thanks, Gary, it is nice to have the numbers spelled out.
Nikkei still dropping -400 and still dropping.
Jay Taylor’s latest on Oil:
http://www.voiceamerica.com/episode/90350/whats-really-going-on-with-oil
Stockman about Deutsche Bank:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-09/david-stockman-when-crunch-comes-bankers-lie
Somebody mentioned Sugar earlier:
Thanks CFS. Yes, I had mentioned there wasn’t a Sugar chart on that previous link from finviz, and said I’m watching the Sugar ETF (CANE) for an entry point.
Check out this longer term chart and how it has fallen over the last few years:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CANE&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68819868344
Oh Sugar….Watch out folks. The UK Govt. are talking about a sugar tax,, as a way of fighting obesity…If they go ahead, it could spread……
BTW..We all know Govts. will keep coming with ways to steal MORE of our hard earned cash.
The Archies – Sugar, Sugar (Original 1969 Music Video)
CFS (CashForSilver) – BTW – Thanks for that chart and for bringing up the soft commodities today. Much appreciated.
Cocoa might be close to bottoming:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=d1
BIG U TURN just happened in gold at open………….London fix no good any longer…jmho
Companies are leaving the LBMA………….bye bye ……..First Majestic might have started something last year, with suggesting miners need to get together and avoid the FIX…….jmthoughts………………..
I liked Keith’s suggestion. The miners need to form their own cartel and coordinate a bit more.
I thought it was a great suggestion…….” Cartel de Low “……for the little people.
A Munchkin Welcome
mun cha ching………..
Daily, weekly, monthly, the dollar does not look good. This has to be part of the reason gold is showing so much strength even after getting so overbought.
Weekly:
Given its between 55 and 75 Trillion Dollar exposure to derivatives, I don’t see how Deutsche Bank can survive.
Given the size of the problem, I don’t see how it can be even bailed out.
If we lose a counter party like Deutsche Bank, the whole system can’t survive.
The real question is when, not if the monetary system collapses!
The ECB will try, but even with monetization, it does not seem to have enough resources. Once one counter party goes, the system will collapse.
London closed, should be up and away for precious.
Yes, did a nice UTURN earlier……
Hi Doc, any new thoughts about PPP today? Thanks.