We start Tuesday early with the Doctor
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
So far today, the market has given a bit back in gold. Is the upward movement over for the time being, listen to what Doc has to say.
Hi Doc.
First – thanks for answering my question the other day. Second if you don’t mind I’ve got another question for you. You’ve mentioned that there are some miners that have bottomed- looks like an example would be Ric and Claude. You’ve also said there are some other miners that haven’t bottomed or probably haven’t bottomed. I’m curious, do you think GDX and GDXJ have bottom or do you think they have further to go? Thanks
Doc Fan; of the two, I believe GDX has a better chance of having bottomed. GDXJ is much more precarious and it’ll move back down into the weekly trading range again and muck around again for an extended piece of time.
Thanks Doc!
Thanks Doc for your timely updates. My own suspicion is that the market is being held up here in front of Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress. If so, things can start to fall apart by later this week – and what comes after the 3 day weekend could be a real breakdown. Just a random guess……
I think were going to break into the mid 1200’s this week. Thats what my gut is telling me.
Not sure that I would agree at this moment in time, Ronny.
Doc, you gotta be some kinda good.
I dont blame your little bit of hesitancy, (not over til the fat lady sings)
what I see, not that I know anything, is we just kinda double topped, and its sorta normal we dont break a resistance on the first try.(1200)
I still think youve been right all along, we get the 2016 doldrums, and they could be “sluggish” doldrums,(supply still meets demand) at that point, price coming down, there will be a question of “which way do we go?” (the under $1000 crowd will re appear)(Ricks $817 is scary tho, lol)
Altho possible to drop, my guess is, we go up, to “who knows to how high in what length of time?”
I figure from now until the 2016 doldrums is the time to prepare,
You mighta mentioned that a time or two, lol.
Excellent analysis Doc. Thx
Really like hearing this interview in the morning.
Thx guys.
NIKKEI………..got wacked………..down 916 points……..
Like you said…CFS……… Nikkei is …collapsing
Maybe ESF……….could send them some cash……….
Hey Doc, I have been a big fan of your commentary for a while now. I am a little off topic but I wanted to know your opinion on the NXE.V chart if you have time to take a look as it is basically been a huge outperformer and not at all influenced by broader markets. I believe they have the best discovery in any commodity and the RE is soon to be announced. Again if you don´t have a chance to look I understand. Cheers
All I’ve got to say, Ty, is WOW—that’s some kind of chart—what scares me is the parabolic move that’s started and then I look at the charts and some are telling me this thing still might have room to run. This thing might (and I emphasize “might”) have a chance to run yet for 1-2 weeks. That’s of course if it doesn’t continue higher this week. If it goes further up the rest of the week then 1 more week is possible. If I owned it here, I would not add to my positions or chase the thing. Interesting chart—when stocks go parabolic chart reading becomes more of an art form.
Nice Doc. Good to hear your opinion as I know you are a great technical analyst. I know the shares are drying up for offerings and people in the know are aware this is going to be much larger resource than FCU´s. Cameco´s former chief engineer and outspoken shareholder has said it is a once in 20 yr discovery based on his model and I believe that is why there is a strong breakout from the +8 month rounding bottom pattern. If Doug Beattie is correct saying this is over 200mmlb than it has a huge re-rating ahead of it. News yesterday was spectacular if you haven´t seen it and it´s a story worth following. Cheers and thanks for your technical insights.
Here is my chart linked. Do you have any target based on this pattern Doc? Thanks again!! http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1bbmf3n-Screen%20shot%202016-02-10%20at%202.33.34%20PM.png
Great chart Ty.
T.hank Y.ou.
Your welcome Excelsior
Ty I follow the Uranium space very closely and know that NexGen is the most favored explorer other than Fission. Eric Coffin and Gwen Preston have both plugged it at their show, Rick Rule has mentioned it, and Cecil Musgrave name dropped it. They’ve had a few interesting big drill results at their Rook I property in the Athabasca Basin. Cameco, Denison, Fission, and NexGen are all making things happen in the Athabasca.
Have you noticed URRE falling out of bed Excelsior? What’s up with that?
Yep – They did a capital raising and took a hit in share-price in the short term. I still like them as a company that has been around a while, has many assets primed for higher prices, and their recent acquisition of Anatolia Energy in Turkey (a low cost in-situ asset, that will supply Europe). They are trying to fast-track this project and has some to do with the cash raise, so it will equate to production down the road.
_________________________________________________________________________
Uranium Resources Secures up to $10.8 Million of Additional Funding from Aspire Capital
February 4, 2016 8:30 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uranium-resources-secures-10-8-133000609.html
Interesting. Thanks!
Here’s the corporate summary for URRE for anyone following the Uranium space:
Uranium Resources, Inc. (URI) is focused on advancing to near-term production the Temrezli in-situ recovery (ISR) project in Central Turkey. URI also controls extensive exploration properties under nine exploration and operating licenses covering approximately 32,000 acres (over 13,000 ha) with numerous exploration targets, including the potential satellite Sefaatli Project, which is 30 miles (48 km) southwest of the Temrezli Project.
In Texas, the Company has two licensed and currently idled processing facilities and approximately 14,000 acres (5,700 ha) of prospective ISR projects. In New Mexico, the Company controls minerals rights encompassing approximately 190,000 acres (76,900 ha) in the prolific Grants Mineral Belt, which is one of the largest concentrations of sandstone-hosted uranium deposits in the world.
Incorporated in 1977, URI also owns an extensive uranium information database of historic drill hole logs, assay certificates, maps and technical reports for the Western United States.
Turkey, Texas, and New Mexico……. You don’t see that combination every day……
I just nibbled at a bit more URRE because the sell off is looking overdone.
mmmmm, uranium, tasty….doh!
Yeah, it gives one that Inner Glow!
Glad I did pick up some URRE at the bottom today, because it ended up 16.23% from the open, but I bought below the opening level and ended up with at 16.9% gain for the day. That does give me an inner glow 🙂
Uranium Resources, Inc. (URRE)
0.25 Up 0.0349(16.23%) 4:00PM EST
ANYONE watching currencies………?
FFMCCF, Like a hawk, I am.
thanks, I might have some question later…………
euro looks good today….
thanks for the reply Bobby,….I might have some question later…….
send them direct to my email as i might not get back to the ker site
Will do………
just looked and you are correct………swiss franc about the same…..
crude looks to be hit hard today holding the 28 handle
28.38……..close to close……….
Thanks Doc. Appreciated as always.
Dow is going to hit 12000 at some point this year.
It very well could Ronny.
Hi Al and Doc!
Did you say some Days ago that you were going to talk about agriculture?
And also i would like Doc to comment on Input Capital (INP.V) and (YGR.TO) if he dont mind,how they look technically and maybe some other thoughts. Thank you!
You people should send Doc Valentine’s cards this weekend!
Well… I am also in that camp…
Agree !
I don’t send Vanentine cards to guys! Even to Doc as much as I like the guy!
ah, and i was hoping for a nice chocolate heart from you Al.
Right!
funny
Pete, INP appears technically to challenge 1.60 again. Be careful with this one when it reaches that price point since on the weekly chart it’s forming a descending triangle pattern to me. Those usually break to the downside. YGR looks like it wants to revisit 40cts.
Thank you Doc,your opinion is higly valued.
Sure is!
By all of us, Pete!
Does not look a good time to be long, IMO.
Not close to bottoming yet:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GRAINS&p=d1
Wow Oats are way down. I didn’t see a chart for Sugar, but I’m waiting a little bit longer and may start taking a position in the ETF (CANE).
I am loading up on gold DUST. Keeping some red shares in NUGT to FIFO trade against later.
Hi Doc!
I bought Roxgold ( Rog) at 0,72 cad a couple of days ago. Its moving up now, do you see any pricetarget for Rog ahead before this gold cycle is ending?
Rog will start producing gold q2 2016, Aisc below 600 usd. In the long run it looks like a winner fundamentally.
Kindest regards Blue
It looks like ROG could double top at .90-.95cts—thanks for bringing this company to my attention. It’s interesting to say the least.
Thanks Doc!
Roxgold is a near term producer in Burkina Faso, and is following the lead of True Gold who just went into production recently. Gryphon Minerals is another explorer in Burkina Faso. There’s gold in them there hills……
Here’s a 200 day composite perf chart for the brand new and near term producers. I must tip my hat to Matthew once again, because True Gold had the best move out of it’s peers:
Companies Featured:
Roxgold, True Gold, Golden Queen, Asanko Gold, Pretium Resources, Integra Gold, Midas Gold, Premier Gold, Torex Gold, and Pershing Gold
If the USD starts going up again I assume that is bad for the price of oil?
Do you think it will go up Bob?
Yep, I think so Al simply because everywhere else on the planet is in a mess. It is not so much whether the USD is strong but that it is simply the strongest currency out there compared to all the other weakening ones.
Hi Doc!
I am looking to establish an initial position in NAT. The stock looks like it has dropped back into its base and might be a good opportunity to pick up some shares. At what price level would you likely get interested in purchasing more shares?
Chuck, I’ve sold my shares and will let the stock bottom—ask me to look every week at it and I’ll tell you when I take a position in it. The reason I sold is because tanker charter day rates were dropping in January. I believe they may drop further.
Good to know. Thanks Doc.
Sold my Canasil – one of the few in profit Richard.
Rubicon minerals RMX was mentioned on Goldtent, its scary that they drew Investors like Agnico eagle,Rob Mcewen etc,those guys are really experts.Im no expert but when you read about it there were warning signs and red flags.Brent Cook and other experts said the drill holes were spaced 50 metres apart.In similar canadian deposits drill holes are 10 to 15 metres apart,and there were other red flags as well.(i never owned RMX)
Brent Cook was very negative on Rubicon ever having an economic deposit and that was 2 years ago, and this kept me from getting sucked into the hype.
Pretium – There has been some discussion about Pretium having some of the same issues as Rubicon. Some forums have discussed Cook’s neutrality/negativity on the Valley of Kings (VOK) deposit.
I my opinion, the bulk sample and the recent/subsequent in-fill drilling results from VOK have reduced a LOT of the risks with Pretium. So, I am still a long-term investor.
I still think that Integra may be a safer pure-Canadian developer to invest in, though.
Brian, I haven’t like PVG’s chart for some time. We’re headed down to 4.25. Then I’ll be able to tell if we stabilize or head for 3.
DOC
The Integra Gold daily and weekly charts are much more promising than PVG, in my opinion.
Brian
Brian, I couldn’t agree more from a technical standpoint on integra.
Brian – I’d rather own Integra over Pretium as well, but Pretium is still an interesting deposit that has some merit, and over the last few years it held up better than its peers.
The problem is that it needs much higher gold prices and is burning money while it waits to be taken out by a Major. I hadn’t heard Brent Cooks analysis of it yet though, so that makes me a bit more skeptic, as he is pretty good at sizing up a property and the economics of it (as a geologist and someone that understands the mining business).
As for Integra Gold……
It will all come down to this year’s 1 Million Dollar Gold Rush Challenge at PDAC!!!
__________________________________________________________________________
(for anyone that has not seen this yet – click the banner on their site for the video)
To clarify on Pretium, I think if Gold prices don’t rise dramatically that they won’t get that mine into production in 2017, and will need the money of a Major to buy them out and hold onto the project until prices improve.
However, for an optionality play where you believe Gold will be over $1450ish by 2017 then Pretium could surprise to the upside, and if that happens actually get the mine moving and grooving as they have planned. It will be one of the biggest development stories there is to watch, and could be a homerun if everything works out perfectly (my experience with development companies is that it always takes longer, cost more, and is more complicated than they project it being).
Ex
Your statements above are excellent. Premium is a high risk/high reward investment.
Brian
And … I would be REALLY disappointed if Premiums goal was to be bought by a major.
Premium falls into the “Raisins in the oatmeal” deposit.But I agree, with much higher gold prices in 201, there would be no discussion, like the one we are having.
Jeez .. spell check hates “Pretium” … so I’ll now use quotes.
It is definitely a high risk/high reward investment. I should mention I held it for 2 periods in 2015 and have been a shareholder off an on. Its the same thing with NovaGold being a huge exploration/development company that will likely be taken over by a Major one day.
If you have a great deposit or great grade or great economics, usually a bigger fish will gobble up that company. Consolidation and growing through Acquisition. We’ll likely see more of this over the next 2 years, which can be quite exciting and lucrative if you purchase of the right company shortly before the takeover or have a low cost-basis.
I’m still keeping my eye on Pretium, and for their sake I hope everything does go right, that metal prices do increase, that their projections are on course. and that they are a home run. I just see a few potential hurtles and have watched other companies wipe out during the development and implementation phases.
I’ll say this….If Pretium really does get the mine into production in 2017 and has an AISC of $448 (even after they actually start mining and processing and get the actual numbers in), then they’ll be sitting pretty.
Silver Standard Resources owns 11.79% of the stock
Zijin Mining owns 8.85% of the stock
Those are 2 potential suitors………..
Chesapeake continues to get hammered down over 10%
I think it is very interesting the company ties and friendships that existed between some of the management and directors of Sandridge (from a few years back before the hostile board takeover), and Chesapeake. Oil cronies sticking it to the bag-holders.
Oil analysts in articles and all over the chatrooms were warning around the time of Sandridge’s legal fights, inflated claims, and terrible management decisions in 2011-2014, that Chesapeake and Halcon Resources were in the same shape. It is interesting to note that people made those claims back in the boom years for oil, and warned that based on their exorbitant spending and compensation of management went unchecked that it would be their doom. They further warned that if a low price environment crept in that all 3 companies could go belly up. Nobody thought that would happen and kept buying into their marketing fantasy…
Surprise!
Chesapeake closed at $1.95 today and used to be a $30 stock, and traded close to that level even as recently as 2014. They kept the charade going longer than SandRidge or Halcon Resources, but the chickens are coming home to roost.
Look at what happened to Sandridge….. it had reverse splits and restructuring but is trading today at $.0332 and using this share structure it used to be a $10 stock in 2011.
Look at Halycon – Trading today $0.43 and at one time made it up over $60.
Now we look at Chesapeake
If US$1200 was the top for this move, I’m guessing the gold price revisits 1110-1125 area, before moving up again to complete inverse H&S.
Brent Cook said (The KE weekend show SAT 5 Dec) about Novagold “That the odds of Novagolds deposits ever going into production is pretty far out”but its a good leverage to the gold price.
Yes, it is the optionality on the gold price increasing. If gold prices ever get high enough then a Major or big Mid-Tier will buy out that NovaGold deposit. At one point it was good ole’ Cramer’s favorite mining company in his child’s trust fund.
Doc, I hope you don’t decide to rent your crystal ball. I sure am making (and keeping) a lot of coin from it. Thanks, Doc. You’re the best.
CMC; no problems—I might add I’ve started to short gold and am thinking of shorting PM stocks.
I trimmed and sold some of my mining positions today, but left on some core positions at a good cost basis, in case gold does rally up past 1200 before the Spring.
Since Gold failed to close above 1200 twice and has retreated both times, then this would be a likely place to short from. I’m not sure if Gold will try for 1200 again (3 times a charm) or if it will just be a brief pullback followed by another leg higher, so I’m moving funds to the sidelines temporarily.
I got out of PM stock positions earlier today based on you crystal ball, and I’m glad I did.
The fat lady won’t sing till gold is in the mid 1300’s. Right now it is going to get heavily shorted at 1200 and if it gets higher more shorts will be taken. The regular market is feeling like it may stopped falling temporarily and might rally for a few days.
Good thoughts Paul L.
I’m going to be listening for that Fat lady at 1308, 1347, and 1382 🙂
Thank you guys.
Great to have Doc. Thanks Doc.