Friday and The Doctor is In
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Gold is a bit downward to sideways today just as Doc predicted yesterday and the DJIA is having positive day today as he also predicted yesterday.
While we’re at it about individual companies Doc, et al, does anyone have an opinion on Teranga Gold? TGCDF
Peter Grandich had recommended it strongly over the last couple of years for the long haul (obviously it got crushed like all PM stocks)
From what i see the company looks pretty solid with good resources, etc. but I never hear anyone talk about it.
Any insights/ opinions from the braintrust here?
Why go to Senegal to invest in a gold mine? Seems like there are safer places.
Quite a nice divergence in the miners especially the silvers vs. the metals with 2 hrs of trading left.
Top silver gainers ytd are AG, PAAS, FSM & CDE
Love TAHO & it’s dividend, Own ’em All!
TAHO confuses me. It’s Dividend is not sustainable. So why is it doing it?
Why is it not using that spare (apparently) money to buy cheap properties with potential?
Why are the insiders exercising options and selling those shares?
I own the stock, but it smells to me.
Taho did just buy Lakeshore Gold in response to buying cheap properties with potential…..
I’m not a shareholder though. I was a share holder of LSG though in 2015 off and on.
Tahoe is a giant company, but I generally like the smaller mining producers, development companies, and speculative explorers. (Silver Wheaton is an exception because it is a streaming company, which I like for the long haul).
Marty I love the Silver companies. I traded CDE in 2014 and 2015 and noticed that Coeur just wasn’t showing the upside of some of the other miners, so I sold out last year. Then blam, wouldn’t you know it, the thing almost doubles on this move up in PM since January.
I mentioned in late January and early February that the Majors were moving first, so this was an indication that Big Money was moving into these stocks and they were targeting the larger names with more liquidity (which makes sense). What is exciting is that now that the gears are turning, the smaller producers are next, a we started to see that this week with companies like Avino Silver & Gold, Silvercorp, Mag Silver, Alexco, Amercias Silver co, Impact Silver, Excellon, and Aurcana. Once we have higher prices and the small producers surge higher then the speculative explorers will start to move and the large percentage gains will be made.
The Silver space is going to be an absolute riot once the gears get turning. Once Silver gets back up into the $16-$18 range, these stocks are going to blow most asset classes away.
However, in the short term, I would not be surprised to see both Gold and Silver miners pull back mildly for some consolidation heading into March. Lastly there is still the looming concern of PMs sliding back down into the spring. Personally, I don’t believe the miners will fall nearly as much as the metals, and the bigger mining stocks moving up with such momentum is a sign that the big boys are taking positions. Fun time!
Avino G&S -ASM – Nice move of 42% since Jan 20 for this small FCF & earnings + producer trading @ $1
Absolutely – Avino Silver and Gold is one my core holdings, so I’m a fan.
– I purchased ASM at $0.75 on Jan 20th, trimmed it back at $0.95 on Feb 9th, bought some back at $0.9323 on Feb 10th, and then trimmed on the 11th @ $1.04, then sold today @ $1.0601, then bought it back today @ $0.9683, and it closed at $1.09.
Today was a really fun swing trade, and I felt very comfortable buying the dip because they have great management, great assets, a great pipeline of projects, and have their cost down in a low region. Very solid company in my opinion.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)
1.09 Up 0.04(3.81%) 4:02PM EST
Here is a chart for ASM, but it does have the slow stochastics up in overbought territory, but as several have noted, that may be the new normal. I am a little concerned that the green ADX line turned down and the red line turned up recently.
Regardless, it is has been a great stock to hold for this run up in PMs:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70102352567
I also worry that the elongated hammer candle may mark a turn back down, but the stock has had quite a run. We’ll see what happens next week.
Here’s a 5 day chart of ASM to show that final closing candle on Friday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASM&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p65860778735
Yes, Marty. Very interesting silver PM miners today. I too noticed the last-minute buying as several of my stocks rose into the close.
Yep – end of the day ramp up for a nice weekly close 🙂
By far the best performing Silver stock that I’ve held during this recent run up in has been in Americas Silver Corp (previously US Silver & Gold and Scorpio). Just today alone it was up another 26.93%.
Americas Silver Corporation (USAPF)
0.1070 Up 0.0227(26.93%) 2:59PM EST
I’ve averaged into a good core position and have added and trimmed, sold it/bought back so many times that it is mind boggling at this point. However my cost basis on a small position in SMNPF (before the ticker just changed) was just over $.07 in early January and I averaged down again at $.067 on Jan 4th. Then when SMNPF (now USAPF) dropped to its low in mid January I was really concerned. So more from shock and awe and as a final 2 tiers, I really averaged down in a big way at $.042 on Jan 21st, then $.045 on Jan 26th and got my cost basis down to $.046 overall and then I trimmed a tier yesterday Feb 11th at $.088, and tried to trim again today at $.101, and even though it went to $.107, my limit order never got filled.
That’s OK because my core position is already a double-bagger and heading for a triple-bagger. I am just worried that with the volatility this stock gets that it could still dip back down hard and I would have preferred to have a trimmed a little more today.
Then when I take a step back I think of where this share price may head in a few months to a few years, and feel like there is still plenty of room to run yet (even if there is a short-term pullback).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAPF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39117832541
I also think it was a good thing for USAPF to close at $0.107 today, because this exceeded the intra-day high of $0.102 on Feb 8th. This is a great weekly close for Americas Silver Corp in OTC or (US Silver and Gold) on the Canadian exchange.
With all these names changes I can’t keep up and different platforms are showing it listed as both names.
Core position for Americas Silver in the %US 0.04-0.5 is fantastic ! I am holding long-term, now @ 0.044.
Here’s a longer term chart for Americas Silver corp (USAPF) and shows that there is still plenty of room to run to the upside in the longer term picture.
Also, the new combined company is much more solid now, having picked up an additional mine and new management when Scorpio merged with US Silver and Gold. Their latest projection for 2016 is an AISC of $11.75-$12.75 per Silver Equivalent Ounce. [CFS I know what that article said that you posted about being cautious about the AISC numbers but take these numbers with a grain of salt….] Regardless, that is still far below where Silver is priced today and will be about $4 per ounce less than they operated in 2015, so we should see revenues and cash flows pick up substantially moving into 2016. If the metals prices go up at the same time then this will be a huge multiplier effect.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAPF&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12516085388
Yes Brian, you started positioning at the perfect time, and I know Matthew was continuing to average into a great core position for some time.
For anyone interested here is their new corporate presentation as of Feb 11th.
(hot off the press)
http://www.americassilvercorp.com/i/pdf/presentations/presentation20160211.pdf
The whole presentation is eye-opening, especially when they are compared to their peers Endeavour, Avino Silver & Gold, Alexco, Great Panther, and Excellon.
• Expected production of 5.0 – 5.6 million silver equivalent oz in 2016
• Executing on continued cost reductions and productivity improvements
• Low capital production can be brought on quickly at San Rafael
• Large defined and developed resource base
• 100% owned, royalty free and fully permitted
• No hedging or streaming in place
• Experienced, focused management team
• Re-valuation potential based on our silver peer group
So much depends onmanage quality in mining.
Here’s a proven winner, who knows what he’s doing.
First Mining to Acquire Clifton Star Resources Inc.
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Feb. 12, 2016) – First Mining Finance Corp. (“First Mining”) (TSX VENTURE:FF)(OTCQB:FFMGF) and Clifton Star Resources Inc. (“Clifton Star”) (TSX VENTURE:CFO) are pleased to announce that the companies have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the “Agreement”) pursuant to which First Mining has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Clifton Star in exchange for one common share of First Mining for each Clifton Star common share held. On completion of the transaction, Clifton Star will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of First Mining and former shareholders of Clifton Star will hold approximately 13.6% of the issued and outstanding shares of First Mining. The parties to the transaction are at arm’s length. The transaction implies a value of CAD$0.425 per Clifton Star share based on the closing prices of each company’s common shares on the TSX Venture Exchange (“TSXV”) on February 11, 2016, which represents a premium of approximately 130% to Clifton Star’s closing price on February 11, 2016. Based on the 30 day volume-weighted average price (“VWAP”) of each of the companies ending on February 11, 2016, the offer represents a premium of approximately 122% to Clifton Star’s 30 day VWAP.
Clifton Star a $4 stock some years ago, recently @ $.13, I trust Neumeyer had this one in sight for a while.
Woo hoo! I’m a holder of First Mining Finance and used to own Clifton Star, but gave up at a big loss. Still thought it was a good asset though…maybe I’ll recoup those nasty Clifton Star losses after all 🙂
That is one of the potential benefits of the project generator model. Eventually a company will do a JV or buy that asset, or it will be spun off into a new company (spin co) and new life could be breathed into the project.
I used to hold Clifton Star years ago as well, and am glad to see it didn’t die on the vine.
Grandich had a hot hand in the 90s up til about 2006, and nothing since. He himself will tell you that, a humble man that he is.
Yes, from what I know of him I have a lot of respect for him.
I don’t blame him for the Teranga recommendation as everyone pretty much was wrong on timing the PMs, but he also may still be right about it as a long term investment.
I believe at the time I heard him discuss it he said it was his largest PM stock holding.
Management
What’s up with the internet today? It is slower than I can type.
No wonder Skype has problems.
Just an NSA software update and tech check on Obama’s on/ off switch (that ability now exists, amazingly. I remember when we had a Constitution. 🙂
It was a disturbance in the force.
Doc,
I like oil stocks here, I think they have much better upside than mining stocks. One of my pick is BBG. What are the technicals telling you?
XOP etf has great upside. It is now at 24. I remember selling at $56 months ago when oil was about $50. I last sold at $37 quite some time ago. It is very volatile. BP is what I favor as it pays about an 8% dividend which the company has said will be paid right through 2017 & 2016. It should climb up to $7 to $12 by the end of the year plus the dividend is $2.40. I have a big position in it.
Agreed Paul L. When Oil turns I have many Oil stocks I am debating, but I’ll likely go out and pick up XOP and XLE right out of the gate for some exposure to the sector.
XOP is the like the GDXJ of Oil explorers 🙂
Does DOC have a newsletter ?
We will be unveiling another newsletter with the next 90 days of so.
Doc does not have his own newsletter and is part of our team, thankfully.
OWL….you need to relax a little more…….jmho
Al, please stop with this false story that doc is right day after day
Doc said gold was going nowhere two weeks ago, then said gold will not break 1200 this week, or if it did we quickly find resistance and head back down. How is he right ? I give credit when doc is right, but when he gets a call wrong please do not said he got it right
catman….AL DID NOT say the Doc got it right.
Catman, I think Al figures Doc did get it right.
Bunch of idiots lost their rear ends in DUST today. Just throwing money in a 3x fund and crossing their fingers hoping it goes up. I did not buy because the CHART was iffy.
Dust is going close to zero and they will have to reset it. It is crazy to ever buy a 3x etf. It is not an investment. You are better off getting an oil ETF like XOP if you want extreme volatility and at least you have a great chance at gains.
Hi Doc, which do you prefer: PPP or GORO? AXU or VGZ or TGD? Thanks.