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Initial Friday Market Commentary with Chris and Rick

Big Al
February 12, 2016

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Discussion
26 Comments
    CFS
    Feb 12, 2016 12:13 AM

    The mining stocks are catching up with the metals. No problem. The metals were overbought; they have let things catch up.

    Feb 12, 2016 12:14 AM

    I bought back into Netflix today and got a good rally and sold. Buying back on dips.
    Oil is showing up 12.8% but it is really about 8% from 4pm yesterday.

    CFS
    Feb 12, 2016 12:14 AM

    Did you notice silver is doing better than gold? Just call be cash for ….. .

    Feb 12, 2016 12:18 AM

    You’ll want to be watchful of more to come in the bullion price, rather than a profit-taking correction. The ‘Skew,’ the downward channel, has been so protracted, that people waiting for that profit taking correction may be waiting too long. Accordingly, our indicator, the $TNX:!PRII weekly may plunge to the 89-week EMA, my guess is that oil prices are not meant to decline indefinitely and can rise during a market decline.

    http://schrts.co/J5vEAo

      Feb 12, 2016 12:02 AM

      I completely agree on all counts. Regarding you’re first sentence, I think it is always assumed that selling such an overbought move is a contrarian thing to do but it was not dumb money that drove the first 90% of this rally. They’re still out and hoping for a huge pullback.

      If gold has indeed bottomed, an awful lot of the most beat-up junior miners will remain well-bid even if gold corrects sharply.

      That indicator is a good one. Here’s the daily:

      http://schrts.co/XxGFYi

        Feb 12, 2016 12:11 AM

        We’re not seeing a strong push-back on the line of scrimmage as we had October-November, where gold pulled back yet again. This time, we’re at a first down in ‘their’ end zone.

          Feb 12, 2016 12:27 PM

          Exactly. The difference in strength and character this time is substantial, to say the least.

    Feb 12, 2016 12:22 AM

    I think Doc was saying this could go either way…that we may be entering a bull market…and he didn’t expect the bounce up yesterday to be so heavy

    CFS
    Feb 12, 2016 12:25 AM

    FM.TO 3.26 +0.32 +10.88%
    TCK/B.TO 6.19 +1.04 +20.19%

    Ain’t bad.

    Feb 12, 2016 12:40 AM

    Keith Neumeyer @ 1st Mining, another notch in his belt today with another strategic acquisition in gold rich & friendly Quebec

      CFS
      Feb 12, 2016 12:49 AM

      First Mining to Acquire Clifton Star Resources Inc.
      VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Feb. 12, 2016) – First Mining Finance Corp. (“First Mining”) (TSX VENTURE:FF)(OTCQB:FFMGF) and Clifton Star Resources Inc. (“Clifton Star”) (TSX VENTURE:CFO) are pleased to announce that the companies have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the “Agreement”) pursuant to which First Mining has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Clifton Star in exchange for one common share of First Mining for each Clifton Star common share held. On completion of the transaction, Clifton Star will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of First Mining and former shareholders of Clifton Star will hold approximately 13.6% of the issued and outstanding shares of First Mining. The parties to the transaction are at arm’s length. The transaction implies a value of CAD$0.425 per Clifton Star share based on the closing prices of each company’s common shares on the TSX Venture Exchange (“TSXV”) on February 11, 2016, which represents a premium of approximately 130% to Clifton Star’s closing price on February 11, 2016. Based on the 30 day volume-weighted average price (“VWAP”) of each of the companies ending on February 11, 2016, the offer represents a premium of approximately 122% to Clifton Star’s 30 day VWAP.

        Feb 12, 2016 12:37 PM

        Here is the closing price on Clifton Star (who I used to have shares in years ago, and I am happy that their assets will live to fight another day and won’t die on the vine)

        Clifton Star Resources, Inc. (CFO.V) -TSXV
        0.37 Up 0.19(100.00%) 3:59PM EST

        Up 100% – now that is how a takeout announcement should look in share price!

        Yes, Keith Neumeyer is a fantastic CEO and I like the business model of First Mining to gobble up distressed assets, and then spin them out to the marketplace later to a larger company that wants exploration work already in place but in a higher metals price environment.

        Nice!

      Feb 12, 2016 12:50 AM

      The only reason I bought shares in AG was Mr. Neumeyer.

    CFS
    Feb 12, 2016 12:44 AM

    Re: Oil.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-12/us-oil-rig-count-plunges-most-10-months-oil-rally-stalls

    The solution for low prices is low prices……eventually

      Feb 12, 2016 12:19 PM

      Was that a Rick Rulism?

    Feb 12, 2016 12:10 AM

    All stocks are just moving up and down with oil and not just the oil stocks.

    Feb 12, 2016 12:44 PM

    My miners finished up 9.1% today and CRJ continued its plunge vs IPT — now down 55% in about two weeks.

    http://schrts.co/QHyt3F

      Feb 12, 2016 12:52 PM

      Again, here’s the chart I posted before IPT took off. This is the kind of action you expect at the start of a new bull market.

      http://schrts.co/lXlpUl

        Feb 12, 2016 12:43 PM

        That is a killer weekly chart of Impact Silver. What a price surge!!

        Matthew, you’ve had some excellent stock recommendations lately.

        We first discussed Claude in 2012 and 2013 so I don’t consider that one a recent pick, but you have updated everyone with many charts and thoughts, I am very grateful for the info.

        Really since the Aug/Sept time Alexco, True Gold, and Strategic Metals all performed well, and then from the late Jan mining lows, they all would have been great trades, but the move from Jan through present in Impact really outperformed most of it’s peers in a huge way.

        Check out this composite perf chart with Impact, True Gold, Alexco, Claude, and Strategic Metals. Very impressive!

        http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IPT.V,TGM.V,AXR.TO,CRJ.TO,SMD.V#

          Feb 13, 2016 13:20 AM

          Thanks Ex. If we measure from AXU’s spike low, it beat everything I have. I bought a lot into that low but it spent very little time below 25 cents. Getting in well below .30 was easy though. It is now up 209%.

          http://schrts.co/p3ccbz

            Feb 13, 2016 13:58 AM

            I forgot about Alexco having that huge spike down low, and that you picked it off….you dirty dog.

            This is one of the challenges/limitations with only looking at closing prices, often there are wild intra-day swings where there was even more value for those that had stink bids in place. I use limit orders to nab those most times, as they quite often get filled when I’m not even watching a certain equity. Other times, I see the dive down or spike up and do it manually.

            For example, closing up the week on Friday I just had a nice Avino Silver & Gold trade where I sold my shares at $1.06, bought them back @ $0.9683, and the stock closed at $1.09. In contrast, if I had held it would have been fine, but the intra-day swing is where I multiplied the gain. Some lucky bloke picked up for $0.93.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASM&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p65860778735

            Feb 13, 2016 13:19 AM

            I caught part of that low. I didn’t get squat below .25 and I think it went below 22. So I’m more an unkempt dog.

    Feb 12, 2016 12:21 PM

    Why is Gary Savage not a regular contributor to this site any longer?

      Feb 14, 2016 14:42 AM

      As I have mentioned numerous times in the past, Gary does not want to be on our site because of, as he calls them, “the trolls” who vocally disagree with him. He said that it takes him too much time to reply to them.

    Feb 12, 2016 12:57 PM

    Glad Chris put the Alex Joneses, Steve Quayles, and CFSs in their place on the COMEX, paper gold, the vault at Fort Knox is empty wolf cry gold hysteria crowd. Been hearing this wolf cry going on 20 years and it is just getting lame now.

      Feb 12, 2016 12:19 PM

      So, Jason, by your logic, the monetary system is fine too since it’s been around for 40 years. If a fraud goes on long enough, it’s no longer a fraud?