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Why does Peter like to trade gold and why he is bullish

March 5, 2016

Peter Brandt provides his outlook on gold. From a technical perspective Peter is now bullish but thinks this move up will take some time.

Peter is also offering his gold report for free by clicking here and providing your email address.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
69 Comments
    Mar 05, 2016 05:34 AM

    I think Gary and M………called the bottom way before Jan………OR not?

      Mar 05, 2016 05:00 AM

      I though it was Dec. But in the total scheme of things, does it really matter?

        Mar 05, 2016 05:34 AM

        A day late and a dollar short, and the experts are wrong on most calls………..jmho

          Mar 06, 2016 06:22 PM

          I personally believe that precise calls that come true are really a matter of luck. No disrespect to anyone.

    Jim
    Mar 05, 2016 05:27 AM

    Gary got it spot on -and was heavily criticised here .
    Postma prevaricated all the way up.
    Thats my opinion of what I heard.

      Mar 05, 2016 05:35 AM

      Ditto Jim………

        Mar 05, 2016 05:55 PM

        I do think Doc is a good man…..and is doing a good job……

          Mar 05, 2016 05:59 PM

          I am glad both Gary and Doc have been kind enough to share on a daily basis with their knowledge.

          Mar 06, 2016 06:38 AM

          Of course he is an excellent man . I follow his advice to position mine for sure.
          Thank you Doc.

      Mar 05, 2016 05:43 PM

      There is a reason why doc has been around a good while. I’m sure he knows a trick or two. One is more conservative and the other more aggressive imo. Two different styles of trading imo.

      Tad
      Mar 05, 2016 05:43 PM

      Yep … BUT
      Wait til June/July I reckon. Think we’ll get a nice dip in miners & gold then. Should be a good chance to stock up at prices well below today’s.

        Tad
        Mar 05, 2016 05:46 PM

        Think that’s in line with Doc’s sentiments…
        I’ve been betting on that for 12 months: Surprised we are as high as we are at the moment frankly. Hopefully we’ll get one last tumble.

      Mar 05, 2016 05:51 PM

      Gary got it right and he is given no credit at all. We only get the opinions of the those who followed – time to get Gary back.

        Mar 06, 2016 06:26 PM

        Ronnie, please read my comment on this topic.

      Mar 06, 2016 06:24 PM

      A lot of folks do not like him. That is not my feeling. I would ask you to remember that he left here because he did not want to respond to the criticism.

      I would also point out that Doc is not quite as flamboyant as many others and that is why I trust him implicintly.

    bb
    Mar 05, 2016 05:29 AM

    gary and m? I guess, but I figure the guy that REALLY REALLY called the bottom (if we stay above it) was Bo Polny, he called it every month for what? 2 years? so he called it.
    Now he just needs to hit his what? 10k target.

    Al?!! Now is the time to accumulate metal?? Where you been? Every month from 252 has been the time to accumulate.

    Just cuz, the only guy I figure actually has gold accumulation figured out is J Turk.
    5% every month, increase (if ya can) as per scary stuff in the world, ya keep buying till ya have enough you can sell every month to maintain your lifestyle the rest of your life.
    At that point you really dont need any more.

    But, who the heck doesnt want to play scrooge mcduck and bath in gold coins?

      Mar 05, 2016 05:35 AM

      M…….Matthew………….

      Mar 05, 2016 05:37 AM

      J Turk is a great insurance salesman……………..jmho

      Mar 06, 2016 06:53 AM

      EXACYTLY BB . . . these guys have “called” bottoms month after month . . . so, eventually they will be the ones “calling” the bottom and want credit for it.

      We call this the “broken clock syndrome.” lol

        Mar 06, 2016 06:50 AM

        Month after month? Not this guy but I have nailed the bigger lows pretty well.

        Like these:

        http://schrts.co/ub5T33

          Mar 06, 2016 06:00 AM

          I said gold was a buy in early January and when others (who did not say it was a buy) were calling for a top after a weekly close at $1,118…..

          On January 30, 2016 at 2:54 pm,
          Matthew says:

          A lot can happen in three weeks. Also note that when gold peaked one year ago at $1307.80, combined open interest was 33% higher than it is now while the combined commercial short position was 75% higher and the combined commercial long position was 28% higher. Stated another way, last January’s peak came with commercial shorts totaling about 1.91 times commercial longs while today their shorts are just 1.4 times their longs.

            Mar 06, 2016 06:37 AM

            Mathew,

            I am not speaking of you . . just replying to the post about Gary and others who have called many “bottoms.”

            As for me, I just looked back to Jan 2015, when the GLD was at 125 – and I continually reiterated my perspective week after week – which has been my perspective since 2014:

            ” I want to continually reiterate that I am not convinced the bottom has been struck in metals, and still think we will see lower lows later this year. To remind you of my targets, I am still looking for a minimum target of 105 in GLD, with an ideal target of 95-100 . . . But, a 5 wave drop into that region is going to be a STRONG buy. In fact, it may be the best buying opportunity you may see from this time forth for the next 50 years”

            Low on GLD SO FAR was 100.23

            Mar 06, 2016 06:24 AM

            As you already know, but choose to ignore. I call intermediate cycle lows. It doesn’t matter whether it is THE bottom or not as long as we make money off the rally.

            I thought July was a final bottom. It turned out that it wasn’t, but who cares we still made good money off the rally.

            That’s the reason no one else caught the bottom because they were worried they might be wrong, and it not be a final bottom.

            Well that kind of idiotic thinking just caused a lot of people to miss an 80% rally in mining stocks.

            I’m pretty sure gold has formed a final bottom, but if not, so what? We’ve already made an insane amount of money. While all the traders that missed the rally have to fall back on is to accuse of us of having tried a couple of times to call a bottom.

            So your choices are to follow someone who’s too timid to make a call because he’s afraid he’ll be wrong and in so doing you miss a once in a decade rally. Or, you follow someone who understands cycle theory and will get you in at intermediate bottoms. Eventually one of those bottoms will turn into a baby bull and you will make crazy money in a very short period of time.

            I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The longer the bear lasts the closer we get to the final bottom. After 4 years one has to treat every intermediate cycle low as THE LOW.

            And for whit it’s worth, I doubt the reversal on Friday marked an intermediate top just yet.

            http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/03/chart-of-the-day-233.html

            Mar 06, 2016 06:07 AM

            Gary, feel free to carry on as you see fit. But, your assumption that you are the only one who nailed this rally says a lot, and everyone that missed this rally is an “idiot.” I guess you are simply the best analyst and trader in the world. (And, no, you were not the only one who nailed this rally). Good luck . . and, more importantly, good luck to your subscribers.

            Mar 06, 2016 06:58 AM

            I think you made the claim to being the best gold analyst in the world, not me 🙂

            Mar 06, 2016 06:09 AM

            Not really Gary . . you must have read what others have said about me:

            https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/testimonials.php?categoryId=17

            And, it is what we get when we don’t call a 10000% bottom in place, and then say “ooops.” 🙂

            Mar 06, 2016 06:49 PM

            You can keep worrying about your reputation and miss bottoms. I could care less if a miss abottom call as long as we make money off the intermediate rally.

            We made an insane amount of money off this one while everyone else was saying gold wasn’t going any where fast. And was afraid to pull the trigger.

            And if this doesn’t turn out to be the final bottom then I’ll call the next intermediate bottom as well and we’ll make money off that one also.

            In the meantime everyone else can sit on the sidelines in fear of missing a call…because that’s what bear markets do. They make it almost impossible for traders to spot the turn.

            Mar 06, 2016 06:08 PM

            I’m sure what many people would like to see is you make a real time call. I make real time calls, Doc makes real time calls, and so do Rick and Chris.

            All I ever hear out of you is how you traded such and such perfectly…two weeks after the move already happened.

            That folks is how you sell subscriptions. You brag about perfect calls in hindsight. Because in hindsight everyone trades 100%.

            I made the bottom call in real time. I said the undercut low in miners in January was a false move to allow big money to enter as retail was selling. All the way up I cautioned traders not to short a baby bull. They are dangerous and aggressive, and this one even more so than most because this bull is breaking 4 years of manipulation that has been holding it artificially down.

            So how about it? How about some real time calls from now on. Take a chance. Everyone is wrong from time to time. No one is going to chop your head off if you miss a few calls. We all do. No system ever invented ever got every call perfect.

            Heck the best traders in the world rarely get it right more than 60-65% of the time. If you can do that with EW then you are someone worth listening to. Just telling us what you did long after it’s already happened is meaningless and makes you sound like just a salesman.

            Take a chance. Jump in the pool with the rest of us. Show us what you can do in real time.

            Mar 06, 2016 06:32 PM

            Gary,
            I am going to respond one last time to you, and then I am done. But, I think it needs to be said.

            First, it is clear to me that you do not understand how much your perspective of markets lacks real understands of how markets work. And, those that do not understand their own limitations are dangerous. While I am clearly not always right in all my market calls, at least I post EXACTLY the levels which show that I am wrong even before I do the trade. We apply risk management at ALL times, and are primarily concerned with capital preservation, and then increasing our capital.

            Second, not only is my reputation intact, but so is my profitability. As I noted before, we have not missed this rally, but you do not seem to understand that because you think you are the only one that caught the bottom. And, rather than saying that a bottom is “certainly” in place, we apply a prudent confirmation practice, which I have published many times.

            Third, I have no issue with someone being wrong, as I am wrong on calls as well. We all are. It is simply not possible to always be right. But, what I think is nothing less than DANGEROUS is when someone says something is 100% certain, whether they turn out to be right or wrong. Anyone . . and I mean ANYONE who thinks that there is any 100% perspective in a market clearly has no clue how markets work. Markets are non-linear, so there is no possibility of anything being a 100% trade or 100% certainty. EVER. And, to state so at any point in time is amateurish and dangerous. Again, whether you turn out to be right or wrong. Not recognizing the risk in any trade is how people blow up accounts.

            Again, I want to stress this is not about whether we are wrong or right. We are all wrong at times. This is simply about risk management, and how people blow up accounts. Anyone claiming any certainty in non-linear markets does not understand the nature of markets, is gambling other people’s money, and is nothing less than dangerous.

            So, feel free to claim yet another “certain” bottom, and then later claim it is only an “intermediate” bottom. But we understand and respect the hard earned money of the thousands of individual traders and high level money managers following us in our trading room, as well as the tens of thousands that follow our public market calls, and refuse to provide a false illusion of certainty in what we appropriately understand is an uncertain world.

            I sincerely hope and pray that you take what I have noted here to heart, as we have a HUGE responsibility to those who look to us for advice and we need to put that well above our own financial well-being.

            LPG
            Mar 06, 2016 06:01 PM

            Please allow me to put a few words.

            Gary, you wrote about Avi: (full quote)
            “All I ever hear out of you is how you traded such and such perfectly…two weeks after the move already happened.
            That folks is how you sell subscriptions.” […]

            So let me make those very simple 2 comments:
            1) Avi calls and his team of analysts calls are posted in real-time in the various trading rooms.
            It cannot be better than that.
            It cannot be better than that.
            Let me repeat it again for anyone who is reading this:
            IT CAN NOT BE BETTER THAN THAT.
            For anyone who doesn’t believe it: join his website for 2 weeks and see by yourself. But do not make false claims or pretend you know if you have, in fact, no clue.

            2) Regarding subscriptions: (your comment: “That folks is how you sell subscriptions.”)
            Avi has a 2 weeks free trials for all the trading rooms on his website with NO CREDIT CARD DETAILS REQUIRED.
            Avi has a 2 weeks free trials for all the trading rooms on his website with NO CREDIT CARD DETAILS REQUIRED.
            Let me repeat that for everyone one last time:
            AVI HAS 2 WEEKS FREE TRIALS FOR ALL THE TRADING ROOMS ON HIS WEBSITE WITH NO CREDIT CARD DETAILS REQUIRED.

            TRANSLATION (it case that was required):
            ANYONE can join his website with zero strings attached for 2 weeks…. and have access to live trading rooms, see trade in real time, and receive a market update on various markets for FREE for 2 weeks.
            These are the facts. This is how things work with Avi’s website.

            And I will add this now, just to dissipate any doubt:
            1) I am not a subscriber of Avi (and I don’t receive any sort of compensation from him) coz I don’t put the effort to learn Elliott Waves…
            but
            2) I have used the free trial offer in the past. His team members (the various analysts heading the several trading rooms) are TOP NOTCH. TOP NOTCH. T-O-P N-O-T-C-H.
            Top Notch in terms of risk management.
            What does it mean: every trade has downside target and upside targets. These are risks parameters. This is how money is managed PROPERLY and efficiently. And this is how returns can be generated consistently over the long run. Both on the long side, and on the short side. Because if there is one thing that Avi and his guys EXCEL at, it is at making money BOTH WAYS. BOTH WAYS.

            Any successful trader or money manager understand that the NUMBER ONE rule when managing money is risk management. Even successful dads who manage the savings of the family successfully understand that.
            If one doesn’t understand that… then… one of these days… the market will teach that person a painful lesson.

            ******

            To conclude:

            So Gary, I am genuinely disappointed by your comments. Genuinely.
            They either reflect utter ignorance or bad intentions.
            I just hope it is utter ignorance.

            LPG

            Mar 06, 2016 06:31 PM

            And that Matthew, is exactly why we consider you to be such a valuable contributor.

            You are welcome to come on the Show anytime.

            Mar 06, 2016 06:23 PM

            Thanks Al.

            GH
            Mar 07, 2016 07:40 AM

            Another replay of the pissing match. As with the last time, look who started it. But that doesn’t mean that it’s worth rising to the bait.

        Mar 06, 2016 06:29 PM

        Avi, my comment on this is “welcome to the world of Hollywood”!

        I hope that all is well with you.

      Mar 06, 2016 06:28 PM

      My comment, bb, was directed at folks who are perhaps not in the game at this point.

      Bo Polny called the bottom. Good thing weed is legal where you live! (No disrespect intended toward you.)

    Mar 05, 2016 05:55 PM

    IF we are really in a new bull market in PM GARY SAVAGE was the one who called the bottom the exact day when the whole world was awaiting for a huge H&S breakdown in HUI.
    He says was a trap and the next day commenced this incredible run.
    IF this will prove to be a new bull market Gary deserves to be the “father” of this baby bull,no doubt about it.

      Mar 06, 2016 06:36 PM

      Mark Gix, my philosophy has always been to simply listen to everyone. I have done that most of my life and it has worked well for my family and I.

    CFS
    Mar 05, 2016 05:00 PM

    If you want to be outside the banking system……here’s another nail in the coffin.
    http://www.thelocal.se/20160304/swedes-predict-death-of-cash-in-five-years
    And if you don’t believe the world is going to cashless, total control…..
    Look at the wall; the writing is THERE.

    CFS
    Mar 05, 2016 05:14 PM

    Refugee riots in various countries in Europe.
    Expect some ofthem to be returned to Turkey soon, to force border closure.
    Tear gas used several times in Greece to stop refugees.
    And this is worrying:
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/05/russia-refugee-germany-angela-merkel-migration-vladimir-putin

      Mar 06, 2016 06:38 PM

      Professor, wouldn’t life be simply if simply all loved each other? Now, where have I head that before.

    CFS
    Mar 05, 2016 05:35 PM

    We are often told that gold and silver are hedges against inflation or deflation.

    I don’t believe it.
    During the Great depression of the 1930s gold was required to be handed in to the US government if you were an American and then could not be held in bullion form for forty years.
    For the purposes of international trade its price was held fixed.
    If you scroll down in the following reference, you will find a table of silver prices:

    inerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/880798.pdf

    Can anyone explain to me how silver was a hedge during the Great depression?

    On the other hand gold mining shares, IF YOU PICKED A COMPANY THAT DID NOT GO BUST, did go up significantly in price AFTER the depression was over.
    The reason being that production costs dropped while the cost of gold was fixed.
    Thus for mines that did not go bankrupt, gold mining became highly profitable.
    This time IS different.
    This time the price of gold is not fixed.
    Will its price go up because of demand?
    Or will its price go down because, in a worldwide depression, both people and even countries cannot afford to buy it?
    I continually ask myself that question.

    I suspect the world is going into a deflationary depression followed by high inflation.
    But will it be better to hold something everybody needs, such as an energy company, or a precious metals mining company?
    Will people value highly a barbarous relic?
    I do not know.
    So I spread the risk, and diversify.

    Mar 05, 2016 05:54 PM

    IF this will prove to be a new bull market Gary deserves to be the “father” of this baby bull,no doubt about it.””

    Yep Gary was spot on!

    Mar 05, 2016 05:57 PM

    This was a timely call:

    On January 4, 2016 at 10:43 am,
    Matthew says:

    …stocks priced in the gold miners are about to begin a big downtrend.
    SPX:GDM
    http://schrts.co/N6oBKX

    (The S&P dropped 30% versus the gold miners since then.)

    Mar 06, 2016 06:25 AM

    The Gold Daily Interview with Dan Norcini

    http://thedailygold.com/dan-norcini-analyzes-gold-market/

    Dan’s article

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/40652/gld-continues-to-add-gold

    GLD holdings have added another 4.5 tonnes in two days (0.5%)

    4-Mar-16 793 tonnes / Gold = $1260
    2-Sep-14 793 tonnes / Gold = $1269
    14-Jan-09 791 tonnes / Gold = $809

    793.12

      Mar 07, 2016 07:58 AM

      THANKS BRIAN………TWO GREAT REPORTS………..APPRECIATE…….

    CFS
    Mar 06, 2016 06:29 AM
      Mar 06, 2016 06:54 AM

      GREAT HOPE THEY FOLD…………….I stopped listing to those morons in 2000

        Mar 06, 2016 06:54 AM

        JDSU………..always reminds me of what a bunch of idiots……….

        Mar 06, 2016 06:56 AM

        this post should be under …..cnbc….we ….know…it…..

        GH
        Mar 07, 2016 07:42 AM

        But they are a great contrarian bellwether.

    CFS
    Mar 06, 2016 06:03 AM

    I’ll probably get criticized for getting far away from mining, but you don’t HAVE to read further.

    I believe there are opportunities ahead in oil/energy and longer term in robotics/automation. (The EU right now is very worried about employment because of elimination of many jobs. So much so that they are trying tests of paying a basic welfare amount to every person regardless of employment or not in test areas of Belgium, Sweden , Macedonia….and even on a proposed referendum for implementation in Switzerland. The idea being a kind of monetary stimulus to the economy, bypassing the banking/big money system.
    Anyway, automation is here and increasing, so why not look at investments in that area?

    The use of automation to replace human workers is an irreversible trend and no one can future-proof their job. For those well into their working lives, the chances are that you will manage to get to retirement before you are replaced by robots. For those starting out in the work place, you should be aware of the coming changes and try to find a way to adapt your role to still be relevant. At the same time it could be wise to include in your diversified investment portfolio some equity in companies that are leading the charge in the robot revolution. Given how fast this industry is moving, it would not be surprising if some of the big players in automation in 10 years’ time have not even been incorporated yet. However here are some of the leaders which are positioned to survive and do well.
    This is NOT investment advice, since some of the companies are over-priced by reason of very high expectations of their potential. Further,the current macro-economic uncertainty does not serve as an ideal backdrop for investing in equities right now. So here are a number of companies to watch, all very well-established and each specializing in a certain area of automation, such as industrial, medical and military. (I know the chartists’ attention span is pretty short, but this is a years into the future time span I’m talking about.) All these companies have large R&D budgets to further their technology, as well as the cash to acquire other companies that may develop superior or complementary technology to their own, and I believe there is high potential for M and A activity.

    First, one you might never have heard of, is Fanuc Corporation, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and FANUY in the US. This is a solid company that is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing trend in factory automation. It has taken a beating in the recent market wobbles and is now around 25% cheaper than it was a year ago. With a dividend yield of 4.5% and a P/E ratio of 18.
    In the medical field, there is NASDAQ-listed Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), the maker of the market-leading da Vinci Surgical System, a high-precision surgical apparatus that provides minimally invasive surgical procedures. The system comprises a number of mechanical probes controlled by a surgeon through a console with a high definition screen. Intuitive Surgical was the first company to be granted FDA approval for general laparoscopic surgery back in 2000. Today it is in use across 64 countries, with the US being its largest market covering all 50 states. (Has been featured on 60 minutes) The company is currently on its fourth generation system called the da Vinci Xi, offering surgeons more precision and control.
    With a $20 billion market capitalization and an extensive track record in minimally invasive surgery, Intuitive is ideally positioned to transition towards becoming a maker of automated surgical systems within the next decade. Unfortunately it is very highly priced, by any rational measure, but big enough to swallow up any innovative competitor. This is a stock I wish I had bought back in 2010 and just forgotten about.
    The US military spends $600 billion on defense annually and the top three beneficiaries of this enormous government spending in 2015 were Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Boeing (NYSE:BA) and BAE Systems (BAESY.). Big US government contracts provide solid revenue and involve development in leading edge technologies, which often have lucrative private sector applications across a number of areas from space exploration to drones to augmented reality.
    (All have P/Es in the high teens and dividends in the 3% – 4% range.)
    Finally, one has to mention Alphabet (GOOG), formerly Google. With a guaranteed income stream from advertising and search and with so many fingers in so many pies, it could already be considered a diversified robotics and automation portfolio in itself, with other businesses thrown in. It is already a leader in driverless cars, artificial intelligence (Deep Mind acquisition) and robots (Boston Dynamics acquisition). Alphabet is of course highly priced and possibly going to be broken up by anti-trust action. If that happens, the pieces will be worth looking at.

      Mar 06, 2016 06:41 PM

      Now let me think for a moment Professor, are you talking about something insane like the need for diversification in your investments? I will go out on a limb and say that I bet that you are, my friend!

    Mar 06, 2016 06:04 AM

    I’m going to go out on a limb again and say that oil has made a final bottom and I think stocks have probably formed a final 7 YCL.

    Others will wait and wait and miss most of the rally, or they will come on weeks later and claim to have “called” the bottom. But I’m not afraid to make the call in real time. If I’m wrong but we still make money off the rallies then so be it. No harm no foul and I’ll try again at the next intermediate cycle low.

    Mar 06, 2016 06:40 PM

    Off topic, but I wonder if Al has used this move in the conventional stocks to exit his positions. At 1999.99, the S&P 500 has a lot more downside than upside.

    http://schrts.co/DZyqeI

      Mar 06, 2016 06:42 PM

      Not completely yet, Matthew. But we are certainly diversifying.

        Mar 06, 2016 06:21 PM

        Wise move, in my opinion.

    CFS
    Mar 06, 2016 06:03 PM

    I agree with you Matthew on the risk/reward in the general stocks, but the trick is rotate to higher potential sectors.
    I think there are some areas with high potential coming in energy, robotics/automation. cyber-security.

      Mar 06, 2016 06:19 PM

      I agree about rotating into better sectors instead of cash but I think the the only true bull market we’ll see in 2016 will be in the gold/silver stocks. That doesn’t mean one should ignore other opportunities elsewhere but the easiest gains always come from sectors that are in a bull market.

      “A rising tide lifts all boats” is a worn-out expression because it’s true.

        Mar 06, 2016 06:44 PM

        In truth, we are betting fairly heavily on the mining sector.

        I am actually personally involved in one that I will discuss later as the regulators prohibit me from doing it now.

    Mar 06, 2016 06:58 PM

    Gary,
    I finally get what you are saying! Your not calling “the” bottom but “a” bottom. And your strategy makes perfect sense given “not knowing if it’s the final bottom. I personally think we are heading to new lows, but I like your strategy. It’s a common sense approach.

    Thanks for bringing what you do!

    Mar 06, 2016 06:04 PM

    I’ve missed out on some mining stocks that I “now believe” have bottomed. Should have acted several months ago on a few of them..
    Hindsight 20/20