Friday and The Doctor is In
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It would appear that gold will finish this week again in positive territory.
jerry, did you hear the kitco interview (2 part) with Jim Rickerts? He believes that the us gold is present in fort knox….not may people in his camp.
And West Point
Bobby, I have not listened to him at kitco , yet….I will, but., he did mention it at a couple of other sites , usawatchdog, and can’t remember the other one.
I did make a comment, on this site, concerning the GOLD THAT THE FED OWNs which was supposedly $300billion, ….BUT, the gold at KNOX, is suppose to be the US TREASURY’S….not the FED’S.
Yes, there’s an historic loan note between them when it was $45 an ounce or something.
His reasoning, is that at today’s prices, it’s just enough to act as collateral and make the balance sheet look like a decent hedge fund/investment bank at only 12 to 1 leverage: And therefore not insolvent!
But they don’t want to draw attention to it as it clearly sets out what 8000 tons is really for; to act as a de-facto ‘gold standard’ of sorts…
He was in Japan a couple of weeks ago with Tres Knippa and there’s an hour long video of this explanation and other things related to his book somewhere… i think on a link from Tres’ twitter or website.
Thank Tad…………I was a little confused , from his interview at usawatchdog,
My question…….8000 tons..in . FT KNOX..could have been visited prior to 1965, and well, before 1971. An eye witness accounting, could and should have been done.
Rickard’s say so….is not confirmation the gold is there, or has been there for several years. I am just thinking ,is this guy a TROJAN HORSE.. ……..or another smoke and mirror trick …….or just a guy with a big imagination .
ONE THING we know………the GERMAN’S do not have their gold back yet…..
Hhmmm I see what you mean.
In a way, I guess it doesn’t really matter if its there (all the time) as long as its on the balance sheet at $300B.
Lets face it, if it aint there and they get called on it they’ll just take the next 10 years’ output from Barrick, Newmont and friends… via some executive order.
GOOD thought on the executive order………….Thanks TAD…….
Bobby………….main topic …….”.SHORTAGES now appearing”…..per Rickards at about 5min mark.
Rickards…………not really convinced, that he is telling the ENTIRE TRUTH….
Hell is coming Boys ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2aNlbMiWN4
The gold apple ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL1xf_X0W2s
Where are the DAYS ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnaaH4sj3o8
Whoa… Soros looks terrible!
Good video though. Thanks.
If Greece goes down, and gets booted from the Euro Zone, it would stop a huge number of migrants getting in. If its not Europe, they can’t move on through Italy, Romania etc…
I wouldn’t bet on the UK staying in Europe though; gets less likely every day.
Nor me Tad. PM Cameron’s had a tough week what with the Panama disclosures, along with the iffy Remain pamphlets about to land on the public’s doormats; which strikes many of the Leave brigade angry at what is seen to be an unethical £9 million tax levy imposed on us all.
Agreed. I quite like the bloke, but that was a dumb-ass move; printing that stuff. I’m more inclined to vote ‘out’ because of it. We got conned into going in anyway…
I am voting out but I suspect apathy will keep us in.
Soros not only looks terrible…… He is terrible. I’m not sure who is more of a monster in looks & actions Soros or David Rockefeller. David is probably the biggest globalist on the planet and his family has done more to enslave humanity than any other but the Rothschilds.
CNBC……..”Weekly gain”. The HUI……looking good…
AUY……….up 10.3%
DOC…………….hope you see gary’s post about OIL……..you can see what he says at his web site….also, check out the REPLY section……..KER MAKES HEADLINES.
🙂
Saw it Jerry. And you know what? I have come to the conclusion its better to not even mention his name anymore since it just directs people to his site and keeps this silly Doc versus Gary drama going.
You might be correct……………BUT, I think both have good info.
Farmer, I’ll say it only once—I don’t understand the fixation about me—-actually it’s probably a compliment—I’ve not gotten involved personally in saying anything personally negative about Gary and I’m not about to—I haven’t “piled” on at all as intimated and won’t—I’ll let it go at that. I consider Gary a friend.
Good for you Doc. Good karma.
You are a good man Doc. I am also baffled why he targets you (and Chris lately). The thing was, it was actually me putting his feet to the fire for all his silly talk about manipulations, market rigging and a Fed conspiracy in the background.
Sorry you got the flack over it.
Farmer of NEW YORK ARE YOU READY ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDTM7CJ3kWI
( The POPE WILL VISIT CHINA !!!!! ) !!!!!!!
I will take a guess at why he attacks you though, and it may be because he sees you as his main competitor and the least likely person to fight back. Its why he doesn’t argue back against me since my nature is just more aggressive and I don’t take shit from most anyone. Who wants to argue with an angry guy up to his knee-pads in cow muck anyway? You just cannot win that argument.
Always atackking BIRD ? ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9alq4e9CCbs
Farmer, you’re hilarious.
My wife agrees. She adds though that I am an ass!
Every month it is the next month will be telling.
Did I just hear, “so much for the doldrums?”
Its turning into a whip-saw market b. Oil way down one day then way up the next. Big swings in gold volatility, stocks, VIX and some currencies. We always get this just before a major change is about to take place. Like their is some kind of battle going on in the background we are not privvy too.
James Rickards has a pretty interesting idea on the dollar that he reported today. He says that an agreement has been made between Central Banks to weaken the USD and thus create an artificial devaluation for the Yuan that favours their trade with Europe and Japan.
The basic idea is that Japanese Yen will be allowed to rise (gold positive) versus dollars and thus help stabilize Chinese export markets and currency in order to alleviate the pressures they are coming under that might cause a forced devaluation.
I thought it was fascinating. The only problem is that Jame might be applying an idea to a fact that was going to happen anyway. Notice that great big fat bottom formation on the Yen that took more than a year to create?
Well from a technical perspective there would not need to have been the CB agreement James is suggesting because the Yen would have risen versus dollars anyway.
Japan and the Secret Shanghai Accord — Daily Reckoning
http://dailyreckoning.com/japan-secret-shanghai-accord/
He may have mentioned that in other interviews, I recall something about that.
Gold positive, he does say the US actually wants an increase in the gold price.
Maybe its China wants to keep it lower?
Something is going on alright, with a collapse just about everywhere, it might be getting time the CBs do something.
Jim R does suggest a higher gold price pretty much straightens things out.
Its possible thats whats going on I guess.
https://youtu.be/FhwViWdM5GY
Thats a recent Jim Rickards interview, Palisad radio.
Well, if as Rickards suggests, that the Central Banks have struck an accord to keep the global economy in balance by weakening the dollar then I have no beef with it. They are going to be running out of time if they don’t act quickly though because China is going to blow no matter what they do. In the meantime, if his theory is correct then the Japanese and European economies are being sacrificed to make this kind of peace and buy the PBOC time to make adjustments. With both those economies in recession or even depression (depending on how one wants to look at it) those are some big sacrifices to make. Maybe this does confirm that in fact the Federal Reserve is now an international body and it is tasked with the management of both the USD and the Yuan. Crazy world man!
I have wondered for some time if its not all the same bank.
The Americans supported the Chinese when the Japanese invaded and the west, Britain mostly, supported the ousting of the Zsar.
Issue w. the Chinese is that they can’t be a larger economic power as long as their currency is pegged to another one – in this case, the USD.
Giving credit where it’s due, Hugh Hendry made that point on RealVisionTV last month – I thought he was dead on.
Most global imbalances come from that “de facto” peg.
Best to all,
LPG
Hugh Hendry made which point? The one Rickards is talking about?
Farmer the yen is considered a safe haven currency and usually when market fear reigns yen strengthens and when there is complacency in the markets yen drops.Technically speaking the usd/jpy is in oversold territory.My forecast is that it will reach 140 by march 2017.Consequently stock market will make higher highs and gold/silver lower lows.Vix has to drop down further and although if day traded
it could render decent profits I dont recommend to buy and hold or to average down.
Yen as a safe haven means it is a safe haven against declines in stock markets (besides the Nikkei of course) so your comment doesn’t make sense to me. So Europeans might run to Yen if they were worried about their markets for the same reason we might see Treasuries rise when US Equity markets hiccup. But none of that makes perfect sense right now unless there are a whole lot of people in-the-know bailing out ahead of the crowd and anticipating a market meltdown on its way. So if they did then they would likely position into cash and into currencies that were in an uptrend. Like the Yen or at another time the USD. And if we did have a crash the only thing usually left standing is the dollar and long Treasuries. Even gold generally gets walloped most of the time along with its miners when there is a big market sell off……so now you have me thinking…..maybe I should be buying Yen instead of Dollars.
Maybe I didnt make myself clear.If there is going to be a meltdown in the stockmarket I would buy the chf,usd and yen but if I have to chose one I will choose the usd.The reason that yen has been strengthening in the last couple of months is because traders had been fearing a stock market collapse which imo is not coming.At least not in the near future.When traders realize that they will back away from the yen and into usd again to buy stocks.Thus we will soon be seeing yen weakening and usd strengthen,precious metals drop and stock markets rise.
OK, now I understand better.
Don Corleone & Farmer IC – interesting discussion. I appreciate how you both come at things from a much different angle than many of the editorials I read. The varying opinions everyone has really get one thinking. Thanks.
As I am not so versed into currencies trading, I try to rely on people who are quite successful at it.
There was an interview featuring Ashraf Laidi a few days ago on RealVisionTV.
Fwiw, Ashraf considered, at the time of the interview, that JPY could bottom near 106. That’s an area I have had my “eyes” on – I mentioned it to Richard – and we are pretty close. “Eyes on” for a potential reversal in some asset classes.
We’ll see – again, we’re quite close of 106 now.
LPG
106 does make sense for some kind of reaction, that’s for sure:
Don, this isn’t 2008. The dollar will drop with stocks just like it did after the 2000 top.
Even in 2008, the dollar wasn’t the safe haven that everyone thought. It went up because markets were crashing and the dollar was at a record low. Everyone was long everything but the dollar, so everyone was essentially short dollars. Therefore, selling in just about every asset automatically meant buying dollars.
Gold still finished 2008 up almost 6%.
Interesting resistance level at 106 in JPY guys. Thanks.
LPG I am watching that support too but amongst all I am watching the 200wma currently at 104.6 and rising.The 38.2% fibonacci support at 106.61 will be the turning point for the usd/jpy.Although it is still too early to say there is a possibilty of a head and shoulders or cup and handle formation with a potential target of 175.One could then imagine by himself what would be the implications for the precious metals.The central banks will ultimately succumb to the deflationary pressure and let the markets do their own adjustments.Meddling around will make things worst.Btw they are doing it for their own sake not ours.They are trying to cut debt through inflation and clear their books (foreclosed houses) along the way but what goes round comes around and as you sow so shall you reap.At the end chickens will come home to roost and all the improper due diligence(ninja loans) that they have done before the 2008 recession will come back to bite them.They cannot defy the markets.All they can do is to prolong the inevitable and the longer it takes the worst will be the consequences.
I totally agree with you, Big Al, They are a great bunch of LIARS.
However, is it really better to keep the economy up and prolong the agony over several years?
the result eventually will be the same.
(Except that when the collapse finally happens the overshoot may be worse.)
We have been at the beginning of a Weimar type economy, ever since the destructive President and the corrupt Congress decided to line their own pockets while over-taxing and over-regulating the economy.
Doc, so the base metal commodities players – FCK, TCK, RIO, BHP, etc, – are stocks that you feel we should now begin getting into because the USD is going to head down and the likes of copper, iron, etc, will get a bid?
I was a bit shocked hearing you say that about the commodities – if I heard right – as you sounded as if you feel the time to buy has come forward a few months?
I did not hear him mention the YEN but if we just take that one single fact into account and it does keep rising that will change the entire outlook on precious metals and commodities. As recently as a few weeks ago it was far from certain the Yen was going to stage a rocket launch. But if it goes up again tomorrow as I suspect you can pencil me into the market to buy resource stocks and I will bury the idea gold is going to see any major correction.
No way in hell can I ignore what the Yen is doing here. So I will reverse myself entirely.
When the information at hand changes, you are allowed to change your mind. My worry with the yen is what happens when it quits going up???
Weird thing is it looks like it could rise for years. That is, if this is the *real* final bottom.
The yen is soon going to weaken farmer.Mark my words.Usd/jpy to 140 by the first quarter of 2017.By then gold will be 750 approx.
We are looking at different charts Don. I just realized that you are reading the USD/JPY chart whereas I am using the JPY/USD chart. They are not exactly the same for reading the currency numbers. By that I mean the Yen is rising in strength versus dollars on my chart. It is in an upward slope whereas on your chart the slope is down. Here is mine for an idea what I am talking about. Maybe get back to me about this and clarify if you are looking at the inverted chart of the same information.
JPY / USD courtesy of FINVIZ.com
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=d1
The Yen is strengthening in both cases btw. Sorry if that wording above was confusing.
Yeah rightly so farmer.I was looking at the USD/JPY .However,it makes no difference for the analysis.Next time I mention any currency pair I will write it in capitals to make it more noticeable.Thanks for having drawn my attention.Last thing I want to do is to confuse the ideas.
Don, I’ll go on record with a “not a chance” regarding the usd/jpy at 140. It has a better shot at the 90s by the end of the year (100s on the following chart).
Matthew although I am very dynamic in character and open to all ideas I should say that in this regard I am very confident that my view is correct.If you go on the USD/JPY weekly chart you will notice an open gap at 141.The 200mma is currently at 105.78 and if you draw a supporting trendline on the weekly rsi from 2009 todate you will notice that it is almost touching.Matthew if the head and shoulders realizes itself 175 would be the upside target and that coincides exactly with the upper trendline from 1975 highs todate on the monthly logarithmic chart.Btw I like challanges 🙂 They sharpen my skills.Just kidding.
Thanks for the details, Don. I would be much more open to the possibility if you didn’t think it would happen by Q1 2017.
I hope you can view a monthly chart at stockcharts. This must be what you described but inverted since this is jpy/usd:
Not gonna happen. 😉
Time will tell Matthew.I wish I could have a crystal ball :)I will keep you adjourned from time to time on any invalidations or confirmations of the pattern.
I agree Matthew. In fact the Yen is exhibiting a bowl shaped bottom very similar to the one gold posted just before it rocket launched. This could be one of those “moments” in the currency world that only comes along very rarely.
And missing this would be akin to being like the guys who missed gold blasting off from 1050 to 1287 in a matter of weeks. I may be even more bullish than you on this chart (JPY / USD) because it looks terrific in its setup right now.
And if it is doing what I think its doing I am going to have to eat all my words about gold selling off and ending the year lower. Because it means gold has one hell of a run in front of it.
We will see by next week. I have not bought into it yet because I can hardly believe my own eyes but I am very close to reversing my bearishness on miners and getting ready to buy back in as this over bought situation slowly heals.
What the hell though….I don’t really mind being wrong. What I hate is when I don’t figure it out until too late. Being a stick in the mud about a single idea is a terrible losing strategy.
As of this recent Yen spurt….. gold looks like it could roar back to life in a few weeks time.
Yes it could Bird. For what it is worth, I personally am very optimistic at this point.
My perception is that way too many chartists/technical analysts focus way too heavily on price. While I agree that the price is king, it is a big mistake to ignore the various indicators. Their utility seems consistently underrated by many.
For example, on the monthly yen chart above (which most people here probably can’t see because they don’t subscribe to stockcharts), the RSI(14) about a year at its most deeply oversold reading since currencies started “floating” 40 years ago. In addition, this condition immediately followed a period in which it had already become just as oversold as the previous record oversold reading back in 1998 — but it did so twice. The MACD and CCI also hit record oversold readings. So, my conclusion is that there is more than enough energy stored for the yen to deal with the bears (dollar bulls) at the resistance on my chart that inversely corresponds to the support that Don described.
Typo: should say “…the RSI(14) SPENT about a year at…”
Thanks guys. We will have to keep an eye on that chart since the dollar is at an inflection point. What it does next may be the determinant for the rest of the year because yen will respond accordingly. Sometimes a beautiful set up can turn into a let down that drags out an obvious conclusion much longer than predicted. It would be easy to bet too early just yet.
Bob—I should have been more specific—I’m focusing on the agricultural side of commodities and not the base metals although I’m looking closely at nickel.
Ah, thanks Doc. Coffee and sugar? (They kinda go together.). I have been keeping an eye on both.
In your cup? 🙂
absolutely delicious.
I’ve been migrating from coffee over to tea lately (for drinking not investing).
Weird, me too. Maybe we do have something in common. I became a big tea drinker when I swore off booze. Then I became a serious coffee drinker when I swore off tea. After a few rounds of back and forth I am on tea again (and not quite as bad a drunk)….but we probably don’t have that part in common. Sorry 🙂
I like the antioxidants from Green and White tea and mild caffeine, and I drink the Chinese bricks of Black and Green Puerh tea, it’s earthy but it helps my digestion. It is a fermented tea so it has probiotics and enzymes. I also only average about 4- 4:30 hours of sleep per night, so the tea keeps me moving.
I drink coffee some days, but more often at night like a desert after a meal.
As for imbibing in alcohol, I drink beer, liquors, and wine and enjoy them all, but have never had challenges with the addictive side, but have worked through it with a few friends and family that had challenges with drinking. I get drunk every once in a while, but if I do drink past tipsy to sloshy then am a happy drunk, not the sad drunk or the angry drunk. I generally get comical and a bit rowdy, but all in good fun.
Overall I believe in moderation, and that all excess leads to decay. I just really enjoy the flavors of many adult beverages and go for quality over quantity. Most of the time I just have 2 glasses of red wine with a great meal, or a few high gravity craft beers, or I do enjoy Whiskey, Bourbon, Scotch, Rum, Tequila, Moonshine, and Absinthe.
To each their own in life and may everyone enjoy whatever beverage they choose to drink. My beverage of choice is water. Cheers!
Whenever I’m in the USA I only drink beer or bourbon.
Thats only because they have NFI what a real coffee is….absolutely none whatsoever.
But they pretend they do….its sad….yet comical.
Cheers.
In /JanuaryFebruary the money supply M2 was pretty flat, declining to a low of $12.382 billion on Jan 25.
As of 3/28 it is $12.695 billion and rising steadily.
A London banker told me that the velocity is showing the first signs of rising over there, so it is possible we might begin to see some inflation start in the US.
With the US having approx $20 trillion in debt plus larger unfunded liabilities the Fed members are going to get cut feet from walking on the knife edge of trying to control inflation at 2%, if money velocity starts to take off.
Doc,
Very good comments today! I agree, markets are in transition!
Commodities and EMs look great with a declining dollar. It’s very good news for the US and world economy that the dollar drops a bit. More trade more money 😊
Thanks for the heads up two weeks ago with COPX! You were spot on!
Chartster, glad to help—-a good time to purchase would probably be the end of May or early June—pricing should be better.
Many of the stocks I have recently purchased in resource area are going parabolic….. this is too fast to be sustainable….. so we will have a drop back or sideways move coming up. (Unless there is a collapse in the US dollar.)
You have one or two examples CFS? I would like to take a look to see what you mean.
Famer,
Examples…….LACDF, BRIZF, NULGF, NMKTF ARE SOME.
The most recent purchase just a couple of days ago was LACDF, and that price and volume increase was probably my fault, since I looked on level II and just put in a bid high enough to get the stock amount I wanted. I was expecting to pick up a number of bundles at rising prices, but the broker took an extra profit for himself and gave me all at the bid price.
CFS – I mentioned to you yesterday that the Canadian ticker for Lithium Americas also had 8 times the normal volume, so there are a lot of people buying the Lithium stocks at present, and rightly so.
I’ve been following this space since about 2011 and caught part of the last bubble, but it was a much different space back then and a lot of the hot air left when the sector got decimated. Many of the surviving companies have merged with 2 or 3 other other companies, and gotten their permits, and are finally developing real projects.
The market has also seen Lithium companies finally make it into production to prove it is not just hype or a dream. Talison Lithium went into production first and I held it back in 2012 and 2013 before it got taken private. Next came along Orocobre and when they made it into production last year, then that really got the wheels turning. Now this month Galaxy Resources has just gone into commercial production. I have been investing in Galaxy for years now, so it is nice to see the marketplace finally assigning some value to these producing mines. Lithium Americas, Pure Energy Minerals, Lithium X, and Nemaska Lithium are all next on the path to production.
As a result, I still don’t feel some of these stocks are even 5-10 times what they will be in 2-3 years. I already have a 7 bagger in Galaxy Resources and it has much further to run and is just starting to stretch its legs. I anticipate Lithium Americas going up multiple fold in the next few years, and we may be short-term overbought, but we’re nowhere close to parabolic yet.
__________________________________________________________________________
Here’s a Composite Bar Chart of some of the Lithium Companies:
Lithium X, Galaxy Resources, Lithium Amercias Corp, Nemaska Lithium, Houston Lake Mining, Critical Elements Corp, Orocobre Ltd, Pure Energy Minerals, Dajin Resources, Bacanora Minerals.
That was the 3 month composite chart up above. ^
CHECK OUT this 6 month Lithium Miners Composite Bar Chart
It will blow your mind!! So CFS, Lithium Americas has plenty of room to run here. Also, as much as Galaxy has gone up, I expect it to go up about 5 times higher from where it is at today. They just went into production this month for goodness sake.
Lithium X – up 2338 % in 6 months
Galaxy Resources – up 1200 % in 6 months
Nemaska Lithium – Up 256 % in 6 months
Lithium Americas Corp – Up 172 % in 6 months
Houston Lake Mining – Up 113 % in 6 months
Orocobre Ltd – Up 100% in 6 months
Or if you don’t like the tiddlers,
MUX, PVG, NGD, SA are all beginning to go parabolic.
I really like all those companies, and each one is quality in its own right, and those companies are just being re-rated by the marketplace, because institutional investors are starting to come back into this space as they rotate out of over-priced stocks and into sectors offering more value. All of the companies are still greatly undervalued in my opinion and when metals prices start to rise, I could see all 4 of those tripling over the next 2-3 years.
Now that NuLegacy Gold Corp chart does look like it went parabolic in comparison.
The collusion between Central Banks means they are taking it in turns to inflate their currencies. This implies steady rotational inflation with US, Japan, EU, UK.
Only China and Russia are now the unknown factors.
I actually figure China is a big player in this game. And I do agree with you btw. The world economy is being managed by a combination of currency differentials and interest rates. Those are after all the two biggest levers the Central Banks have at their disposal for making the macro work. A long as it remains congenial and is seen as fair by all the major parties this could go on indefinitely. There must be some big horse trading going on behind the scenes though. Wonder what its costing us!!!!
What is this Fed meeting on Monday? (rhetorical question.)
The vix appears to have bottomed and could start trading at higher lows.
The market changed:
https://srsroccoreport.com/something-big-happened-in-the-gold-market/
Peter r,
Doc is always saying next month is key, always hedge his calls, yesterday it was oil going to test it low, today it oil found it bottom. Three weeks ago doc said we going to see the dollar drop 15 percent, and the us market is going to drop hard and it just keeps going up every week
haven’t seen market go up for a while, actually this week spx was flat to down. Gold has been in consolidation for multiple weeks. This whole thing is spinning on fumes and yet nothing but Gary nonsense. Been there before multiple times and always ends the same. the guy is a blowhart. He has more targets and daily calls than a weather station in a wind storm.
+1
Farmer,
Give credit to gary he be correct on oil, stocks, and gold
Oil, gold and the vix is the only place to be today.
Paul L – I wanted to tip my hat to you regarding Oil surging. I was watching for it to put in the right shoulder this week and prepare for a move down next week, but today’s surge, mostly on the weak dollar and hopes of production cuts in the US were driving it. Whether both those trends will continue remains to be seen, but you made the right call Paul L.
Have a great weekend.
Paul L – That was regarding the daily chart on Oil that I was talking about the H&S pattern.
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
No he has not.
Doc do you ever find anything that is NOT interesting.
Every other sentence is your use of the word interesting. I find this interesting. I find that interesting. I find and the other interesting.
Life is interesting and so are trolls.
That was an interesting response Doc. Good on you.
funny stuff.
Resorting to name calling. Not nice.
We all have areas in life that we need improvement. You sir use interesting way to often and you know it.
Taking constructive criticism is a positive attribute. Seems you have something to work on.
Hey Dave…sounds like the pot calling the kettle black..
C’mon Dave, if all you can do is pull someone up on their mannerisms then that seems a bit of a desperate poke at someone for no reason.
I personally use ‘fascinating’ a lot – probably due to watching Mr. Spock too much as a kid but, genuinely, I do find many things in life to be fascinating. When it comes to Doc’s daily comments on the markets I find what he says to be very interesting.
Is it not interesting how the financial markets move on a daily basis? I think so.
+1 Bob UK. I find the markets interesting and found your insights fascinating 🙂
It looks like Adam Hamilton and I remain aligned in our expectations…
“Gold has spent much of the past couple months consolidating, vexing traders and bleeding away most of early 2016’s enthusiasm that catapulted the yellow metal higher. But this sideways grind has actually been a very impressive show of strength. Gold managed to hold its massive gains despite an incredible stock-market rally, which can really sap gold investment demand. This portends another major gold upleg.”
Read the rest…
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton040816.html
Didn’t I just say the other day you were his biggest fan? You quote him all the time!
My outlook has nothing to do with Adam. I quoted him because we happen to be in agreement. I thought that was clear the first time.
If someone else had made the above statement, I still would have quoted it.
OK…..but are you Adam by any chance? That would be pretty interesting.
Matthew, really just nominal gains in relation to virtually every PM issue was down 70-99% since 2012 through 2015. Most issues are still down 60-90%.
Marty, a bull market has to start somewhere and this one is off to the best start of any in a very long time. There is meaning in these moves for investors who know the sector. Many issues are showing more strength now than they did when they were soaring in earlier bull markets.
To me, what matters is where the market is when I am buying, not where it was at an earlier top.
I added to my core positions very aggressively into major weakness and commented on it while doing so. As a result, “nominal” is the precise opposite of the gains that I have this year.
My portfolio of more than 12 miners made a new multi year high today and is just a hair away from a triple since January.
Nice result so far, congrats.
Thanks. Like I said earlier, a little luck never hurts.
Yeah, we all need a little luck sometimes…..for sure.
But I’d say your nearly portfolio triple so far is more the result of your own analysis & decision making.
Like I said, congrats.
I would agree Skeeta. I’ve been following some of the Australian miners you’ve recommended and they’ve had very nice moves indeed. I appreciate you sharing stock ideas and bringing them to our attention from the land down under.
Matthew is one of the best stock pickers in micro cap PM stocks and market timers on this site and on most sites for that matter. I’m sure there was a little luck, but we’ve discussed many of the stocks in his portfolio before they bottomed, as they were bottoming and we were buying, and as they started to break out. I’ve had a pretty good run myself, and after all the fundamental and technical analysis we do on these stocks, it doesn’t seem just luck to me…..
Well done Skeeta and Matthew. You gents are an inspiration and I appreciate your tips, recommendations, and analysis.
Matthew, I was not disagreeing, just acknowledging this PM reversal we’ve seen the last 3 months is in its infancy. Thanks for your responses, I try to always be teachable & correctable.
Thanks Marty, my mistake. Now that I get your point, I completely agree. Thank you for your patience.
AXU just had its highest weekly close in 88 weeks.
So Matthew I listened to what Avi thinks about silver what do you think at this point?
I’ll have to listen to him.
Lewis, I have to disagree with Avi on silver. Yes, it’s been trying everyone’s patience (not mine) but I am not worried about a plunge to new lows. Gold did all the work for the first leg up in the sector and I think silver will shine in the next move higher.
The 30 week MA was tested on Monday and again on Wednesday but it held firm.
It looks like a H&S bottom is forming…
Roughly the same is true for IPT at 83 weeks and PGM at 80 weeks.
I’ve been day trading AG & AXU quite successfully the last month using my own model?
the 6 x 24 model?
That’s my long term model, the 6×24.
Gotcha. So you also have a different shorter term model for the day trading. I pretty much use the 1 min, 5 min, and 1 hour charts and the candlesticks for day trading personally. I’ll zoom back out to look for trend lines, EMAs, prior peaks/troughs, and Fib retracements as well, and then zoom back in with a few targets in mind.
Its been wild with Alexco, and to think I was a little nervous getting back in again at the mid $.70’s. 😉
These silver stocks just keep on trucking!
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Here’s a 3 month Composite Chart on the small Silver Producers, and Silver Development companies:
Silvercrest, Silvercorp, Impact Silver, Arizona Mining, Alexco, Excellon, Americas Silver Corp, Santacruz Silver, Great Panther, and Minco
In the last 3 months here are the returns in these smaller Silver stocks: (see above)
Silvercrest – up 350 % !!
Silvercorp – up 234.65 % !!
Impact Silver – up 223.08 % !!
Arizona Mining – up 218.75 % !!
Alexco – up 216.72 % !!
Excellon – up 202.25 % !!
Americas Silver Corp – up 201.59 % !!
Santacruz Silver – up 143.48% !
Great Panther – up 110.31% !
Minco – up 80.94 %
If you can’t own all of them, you need to own a couple of them for the next 3-5 years.
Totally agree Brian.
Nice one Ex!
I’ve got Silvercorp, Impact & Great Panther on that list. Plus Bear Creek. And a few of the bigger ones.
Tad –
I really like Bear Creek but don’t currently own it. It is up 180.36 % over the last 3 months so it has been doing very well. I posted some research on it during the BMO show coverage when the Head of the Board for Bear Creek was interviewed on Kitco.
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Here’s a bonus chart on some of the Silver Explorers:
Canasil, Orex Minerals, Bear Creek MIning, Defiance Silver, Kootenay, Mines Management, Bayhorse Silver, Mirasol Resources, Mag Silver, and Dolly Varden.
Canasil and Orex have really blown it out on their recent discovery and drill results.
Canasil up 400 % !!!! in the last 3 months
Orex up 203.23 % !!
To me that is a positive because it means that the market place is finally starting to reward exploration success again. It’s about dang time.
I’ve been nibbling at Dolly Varden Silver little by little because I truly believe Hecla will be acquiring them in the next year or so, and they are very undervalued compared to their peers.
Also – does anyone have any updates on Defiance Silver. I can’t ever make it to their website, and I thought they may be restructuring, but it is has been a news vacuum. Bob Moriarty gave me a heads up once on them, and when I could see all their information they looked like they may have bonanza grades under the surface, it was a previously producing mining area, and I think they just needed funded. It is has been radio silence from them, but the stock is trading like crazy. Does anyone have a way to find out what is going on with Defiance?
Nevermind – LPG & Matthew provided the goods on Defiance down below. It was my virus software blocking me, but there have been some interesting releases.
Thanks again LPG for all those posts & Matthew for their most recent chart.
Here is a 3 month Composite Bar Chart of the Silver Majors:
Coeur – 159.05 % !
Hochschild Mining – 143.01 % !
First Majestic – 116.04 % !
Pan American Silver – 73.35 %
Hecla – up 55.95 %
Silver Wheaton – up 29.58 %
Fresnillo – up 28.85 %
Tahoe Resources – up 26.27 %
Silver Standard Resources – up 20.54 %
Bonus – the ETF (SIL) – up 49.73 %
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?CDE,HOC.L,AG,PAAS,HL,SLW,FNLPF,TAHO,SSRI,SIL&p=2&O=111000
Yep. Got those. And Endeavour silver.
3 months makes them look good.
Not so good if you’ve had them since last May 🙁
There’s a cool ‘fund’ (I guess you call them mutual Funds), think its actually an OEIC (open ended investment company) called WAY CHARTERIS GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS PORTFOLIO.
It’s actually more of a silver fund and top 10 holdings are:
Fortuna. 8%
Mag. 6%
Tahoe 6%
First Majestic. 6%
Sefamo. 5%
Oveana gold. 5%
Torex. 5%
Fresnillo. 5%
Alamos 4%
Great Panther 4%
It’s up 65% since January 20th.
Yes – I’m using he 3 month charts because that takes us back to Jan 8th. The bottom in the miners was on Jan 19th, so I’d rather just set that as the parameter to see which companies did the best coming out of the bottoming in the miners.
Stockcharts has rigid time frames 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, year to date, and all.
Very cool information on OEIC. That’s a nice list of companies. For Silver, if I bought an ETF, it would just be SILJ.
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All Holdings from SILJ
Name Holding Allocation
MAG Silver Corp. 15.90%
First Majestic Silver Corp. 15.21%
Pan American Silver Corp. 13.11%
Sierra Metals, Inc. 6.12%
Endeavour Silver Corp. 5.04%
Silver Standard Resources Inc. 4.86%
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. 4.84%
Coeur Mining, Inc. 4.82%
Mandalay Resources Corporation 4.75%
Hochschild Mining plc 4.59%
Trevali Mining Corporation 4.25%
Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. 3.99%
Silvercorp Metals Inc. 3.54%
Mirasol Resources Ltd 2.33%
Bear Creek Mining Corporation 2.03%
Americas Silver Corporation 1.64%
Aurcana Corporation 0.47%
Excellon Resources Inc. 0.47%
Minco Silver Corporation 0.46%
IMPACT Silver Corp. 0.45%
Golden Minerals Company 0.41%
Kootenay Silver Inc. 0.38%
Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. 0.36%
I own or trade a lot of those companies those so I’m building my own ETF, but I wouldn’t weight Mag Silver or Pan American Silver that heavily.
I am happy to see Sierra Metals moving up that list in weighting. It is polymetallic, but reports in Silver equivalent ounces. It is such a great little producer that almost nobody discusses, but I’ve been a shareholder off and on for years. It is one of the underdogs I’m always rooting for.
Silvercrest has been a huge unexpected surprise from the $.11 range I added to after the AG merger.
I had Silvercrest prior to the merger, then sold on the news. The I bought the spin co after the merger, and sold it again because I felt it may be a while before they got exploration on their other properties. Their move up really caught me off guard, and in hindsight I messed up big selling it. Granted I still peppered the funds in other good Silver companies like Silvercorp, Americas Silver Corp, Aurcana, Alexco, Fortuna, Great Panther, Avino Silver & Gold, Nicola Mining, and Sierra Metals.
My 2 big regrets for this most recent 2016 bull run were not keeping my position in Silvercrest, and not having my orders filled on Impact Silver. Oh well, we still have years of bull market in front of us, so I’m sure I’ll rebalance, and drop & add companies moving forward.
I’m nibbling at Dolly Varden, and considering getting exposure to Excellon, Bear Creek Mining, Kootenay Silver, and Bayhorse Silver for a little more exposure to the explorers.
Really like these comparison charts for the small silver miners; thanks, EX
I tried several times to buy SilverCrest on the OTC; it was impossible. So I will miss that one for the upcoming long-run.
I REALLY like Excellon’s story. I think it could do better, going forward, than Alexco or Impact.
Glad to share them Brian. I use them to streamline anaylsis, but really there are always trades or entry exit points that would provide bigger gains in the stocks above. I just like drawing a line in the sand though and looking a fixed period.
– Yes, I had Silvercrest and sold it like an idiot and it has just been a runaway train 🙁
– Excellon has very nice prospects and Eric Sprott just bought $3 million worth, so that’s a strong endorsement.
Sprott’s stake in Impact Silver is currently worth about $2.6M CAD, fwiw.
Very nice and it is worth $2.6 M Canadian 😮
Huh? 😐
You said Sprott’s stake is worth about $2.6M CAD – For What It’s Worth….
I was just restated what you had stated about what it’s worth 🙂
Oh, I see.
As Marty found out, I’m a little slow today. 🙁
It’s OK. It was a cheesy joke on my part anyway. I just thought it was funny that you said It’s worth XXX – For What Its Worth…..
That’s the same kind of cheese I’m guilty of. 🙂
EX
Any thoughts on Avino? It actually surprises me that it has not taken off with the other small, working miners.
I’m wondering if there is a HUGE share overhang that has to be sold-off? Or maybe they are just completely off everyone’s radar? Maybe they just don’t promote themselves?
Brian
I still hold shares in Avino Silver & Gold, but they have not joined the party in a major way. They are up 21.35 % in the last 3 months, so the only company they outperformed (over that time period) was Silver Standard Resources.
I think all 3 of the items you mentioned may be a factor, but what really hurt them lifting off on this rally was doing that financing at $1.00 per share. They were outperforming most of the sector, and then right after they announced that financingytheir shares were higher and dropped back down ( I wrote you March 24th that I was picking up more shares at $.92 with 6 minutes left on the buzzer before close 🙂
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)
1.0799 Up 0.0499(4.84%) 4:10PM EDT
I remember that purchase at the buzzer !
The $1.00 financing makes perfect sense now. I think that may be the issue. It seems to return to $1.00 like a magnet. Boy, when that gravitational pull is overcome, Avino may reach escape velocity !
Well it closed pretty close to $1.08 so it may be finally starting to pull out of the financing black hole and blast off.
Avino still has one of the lowest AISC in the Silver space, has much more upside in the mine improvements, bringing Bralorne back into the fold for a future mine, and they still have all their old tailings that they are going to mine, as soon as they get permitted to build the new tailings facility. In 1-2 years they’ll be pulling ore from 4 different locations, and they still have a ton of exploration upside (plus they own their own drills and can explore at 25% of what drilling companies charge).
JAG finished on a high note.
Absolutely. I like that Jaguar Mining is finally starting to break out of that W pattern to the upside and with strong volume.
Ex
I believe Jordan Roy Byrne over at The Daily Gold is a big fan of Defiance.
Although its not on the radar over at Sprott.
I can’t trade it as it doesn’t settle on the CREST system so will have to let that one go…
Thanks Tad. I can trade the OTC version (DNCVF), but I when I can’t see any news or go to a website to view financials, drill results, business outlook & plans, etc…. then I have a hard time investing in them based only on the charts.
I just looked and wholly cow it was ups about 53% today!!
Defiance Silver Corp. (DNCVF)
0.1366 Up 0.0473(52.97%) 3:59PM EDT
Maybe it is just my computer that can’t go to their website, but I was able to search around and found this press release on impressive drill results from March:
________________________________________________________________________
Defiance Steps Out; Continues Intersecting Wide Zones of Silver Mineralization
March 2, 2016 9:37 AM – Accesswire
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/defiance-steps-continues-intersecting-wide-143700968.html
75% this week…
Yeah – Its been on a tear again. I can’t seem to get access to their website, but based on that news release they are moving forward with exploration. I may just have to jump in on a pullback and trade using technicals. I’ve done enough homework in the past to know that they have a nice resource they are sitting on.
It’s now back to the area it was at when Bob and I discussed it and Impact last June – I think it was June.
Shad,
I think it MIGHT be your computer that has issues.
Here’s their latest Corp Pres – dated April:
http://www.defiancesilver.com/assets/docs/presentations/def-presentation-apr-2016.pdf
Best & have a good WE,
LPG
Thanks LPG. It is crazy because I can’t open that attachment either. My virus software says their site and that attachment has malware attached, but I have it amped up to a pretty high security level. I’m flying blind on Defiance….. 🙁
I just tried using Firefox for a browser instead of Chrome, and have ruled out the browser. It’s my virus software, so I’ll have to disable it to read Defiance press releases.
Problem solved. I just used my work laptop and can see these finally. Thanks LPG.
Here’s the link to their FY15 Res:
http://www.defiancesilver.com/assets/docs/fs/6-mths-ended-dec-31-2015-financials-20160228090621.pdf
Actually, these were H2 15 Results… not FY 15 Res (6mths ending Dec 31).
Apologies for the confusion.
Irrespectively…. this puppy is running low on cash, imho…
Best,
LPG
Yes agreed. I thought maybe they had taken their website down to restructure their debt and were going to emerge with a new share structure or something.
I do agree with Bob M. though that they are sitting on a massive deposit, with really high grades (bonanza grades), and if they can get more exploration going, they’ll have a monster resource to prove up. My biggest concern was dilution due to financing that will be needed. Longer term though, I think they may really have something there. I’ved watched a number of Youtube videos where they tour the site, show the historical mining, and delineate their geological maps.
And here’s the MD&A part:
http://www.defiancesilver.com/assets/docs/fs/6-mths-ended-dec-31-2015-mda-20160228090721.pdf
For disclosure’s sake: I have no position in the company.
Best,
LPG
Thanks LPG. I still can’t open any of these, but I’m going to log on with a different computer and see if I can see them.
I really appreciate the help and the updates. You da man!
EUREKA!
I can finally see everything on my work laptop. FINALLY!!!!!!!!!
Thanks again LPG for letting me know that it was possible to view them. I had given up previously.
You’re welcome Shad.
Glad it worked for you in the end.
Best,
LPG
JPM…………….ha,ha………..