A focus on oil
Doc is with us again but this time with a focus on oil. Although the fundamentals have not changed this move is another example of technicals prevailing. Doc is thinking this move could continue for a little while longer. Listen in to find out what he thinks the oil price could move to.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Look at yesterday’s market close blog and do due diligence.
Bob UK, you’ll do better with silver.
A safe one is Fresnillo on the LSE, while one of my bigger positions is SLW.
CFS, SLW is one of my biggest holdings too. What do you think about its tax case?
Don’t have any firsthand info on its tax case. They feel they will win. If I had to guess, I’m not so sure. But I don’t see much more downside.
Don’t mention Frenillo – it bottomed the day I came out of hospital and whilst I was recuperating it took off and I never caught it… after watching it for the whole of last year… ๐ Oh well…
Sorry to hear that. I remember discussing Fresnillo with you a number of times last year Bob UK. If this really is a new bull market in the PMs then you have years left to accumulate the stocks you want. No worries.
Wishing all the best in Health and in Wealth.
I bought some NSRPF today, after watching it go from .55 last Thurs. to .64 today. I finally gave up and bought. Now it will go back down when word gets out that Bonzo is in.
Do any of you follow NSRPF?
Funny Bonzo Barzini.
It’s a nice development stage company with a bright future. You’ll do well.
NSRPF is Jay Taylor’s favorite mining stock, and Moriarity likes it too. I wonder if it will do better than VGZ in the long run?
Novo Resources and Vista Gold show potential to develop into something real.
Only time will tell…..
Bonzo – have you ever looked into New Carolin Gold Corp. (MDULF)?
I’ve heard Jay Taylor discuss it for years and it looks really interesting to me.
Pete – if you’re out there, this could be one of the PM lottery tickets you were eluding to.
No, I never heard of MDULF. I’ll look at it.
Two words, Bob. Mexus Gold. You will thank me later.
Ryan – Mexus was one of my biggest gains of the year. Do you think they’ll announce a JV partner or do you think they’ll get taken over?
Yes it has, but still super cheap. Market cap is not even at 20 million yet. I kniw the players abd am biased, but I see it an easy 10-20 bagger from here. They are a possible takeout target at the right price. I don’t see Paul Thompson letting it go for cheap. I mean they have the Julio Vein (1 oz avg).
Nice. Thanks Ryan. I’ve posted on Mexus before, but you’re the only other shareholder I’ve talked with.
Ever upward!
Bernanke’s blog is influencing markets. IMHO.
I’m not sure anyone has mentioned it in this blog, but FYI:
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/04/11-helicopter-money
Doc……is spot on for the miners……….and PM………..
sorry, I did not mean to post here……….
Insight from Janet Yellen’s most-trusted advisor
George Akerlof offers hints of where he stands
George Akerlof is a nobel prize winning economist but he’s better known now as Janet Yellen’s husband.
He rarely weighs in on what needs to be done in central banking but he spoke with the Globe & Mail about his book Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception.
She must talk in her sleep………..the secret is out………….
LOL…. Funny..
thanks ….C…
Funny indeed Frank,
You cracked me up on that one.
Hope all’s well.
Best to you,
LPG
Thanks….Hope it spread a little joy for you today..LPG….
good read…….and interesting………thanks…….
Sounds like a lot of optimism is breaking out around here lately. Hopefully nobody is losing perspective,
Optimism in a cruel world is bliss………..Uncle Wally 1988…… ๐
FIC
I think you might enjoy this historical perspective:
“The three phases of a bull market”
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366697
Brian
Sorry Brian but I am not convinced…..not one little bit.
Although I have in the past appreciated work by that particular author, he has failed to sway me this time. Thousands of words don’t cover up some basic facts. The first of these is that we remain firmly entrenched within a bear market trend in gold itself.
On that score alone I am unequivocal that a new bull market has NOT begun and will tell you with 100% certainty we are going to see miners sell off in the coming weeks. Not only that but I am equally certain the sell off will eventually retrace ALL of the gains made since January and take the HUI back to 100 before falling even lower.
It will devastate the bulls this next time around and some will never return to this market again as a result. You will need to chart this on your own just as so many others do. And with luck you will arrive at a conclusion that makes money for you.
Personally I was really disappointed to hear Doc’s comments that he felt a great new bull market was in the process of getting underway because he and I are clearly charting these moves differently.
But that’s what makes a market.
In this case it is the majority of those who follow gold closely who are smitten by its recent spectacular rise. Most suffer confirmation bias. Few question what such a rise implies other than up-is-good and more-is-better.
They are going to get their arses handed to them on a platter (as usual) since most appear to so readily lose their ability to judge objectively when the market gets positive for awhile. What is actually taking place though is just a garden variety bear market rally, albeit a strong one.
This is objectively NOT A RESUMPTION OF THE GOLD BULL THOUGH.
Don’t kid yourself.
Bird, the bear is over. No kidding.
You are going to call me Jedi-Birdman before this is all over. Don’t you know I am the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the gold world? How many times do I have to keep helping you before you start to appreciate me?
You should take profits buddy…….This is not a bull market yet.
Gold is down more than 12 dollars already in overnight trading Matthew. Silver has peaked and is also in decline. My trade will be making money by the time the market opens. It’s possible I have timed this move precisely to the day miners peaked although we won’t know that for certain unless the declines continue.
Who else do you know who can do that?
Nobody Matthew. There is not one analyst out there with my track record on gold. That is not bragging either. It is just a fact. Four years running and I have rarely ever been wrong.
And the advice is 100% free.
As an aside, it looks VERY likely that we will see a sharp selloff in gold that could come at any time now. Batten down the hatches Matty. It should be a rough ride. So get the barf bags out and strap on a seat-belt.
hope you are right FIC I still have dry powder (money) to invest & am waiting for a big pullback here.
It looks like you will get your pullback DW Jones. We have struck pay-dirt this morning as gold has now broken below three prior peaks and a cascade of declines could easily follow. A lot will depend on what the daytime traders do though and it is always possible they will buy back the dip.
From my place in Africa I am up with the bats and the vampires as usual. The night guys are in the mood to sell gold short. I suspect they smell blood and easy pickings so no matter what happens during today’s session they will likely keep the pressure up tomorrow night again.
What we are looking for now is that the neckline on the H&S pattern (see the daily chart) is broken. At an eyeballs glance that is somewhere in the 1225 region.
We could see that happen today or tomorrow at which point this decline is going to be irreversible and the trend will have been established as down. I won’t increase the size of my bet until 1225 is breached in any case but for the moment I have a very healthy trade on my hands and naturally I am delighted.
So be patient DW….good things come to those who can wait.
My big reservation right now is the Yen. It has formed a bowl shape spanning two years that suggests a lot of upside strength although I cannot know for certain if it will retrace back to the lows or launch higher. If the Yen cannot be slain then this decline in gold may not be too long in the tooth. Fair warning.
Re: “There is not one analyst out there with my track record on gold. That is not bragging either. It is just a fact. Four years running and I have rarely ever been wrong.
And the advice is 100% free.”
—————————————————
That’s very funny, Bird!
-the $12 “pull back” is nothing. It could drop a LOT more than that without hurting the picture.
-bull or market or not, there will be very sharp declines. It sounds like you’ve already let the next one fool you.
-profits should ALWAYS be taken and I’ve had a LOT of practice all year.
How many times do you have to “keep” helping me? I would be ok with once. ๐
You know what’s really funny Matthew?
That you puff up your feathers and brag about how much profit you took this year when you are a 100% anonymous person and nobody could care less one way or another.
I mean, if you were my brother in law from Seattle or my Uncle Jake it would be interesting.
But you are an anonymous “Matthew” of no particular city or state. We don’t know your credentials, education or background. We don’t know if you are a liar or truth teller. Whatever you say is not questioned because none of it can be proven so all of it is meaningless.
I come here for entertainment. I am also anonymous. (Birdman is not my real name!)
So if I want to call myself the Obi-Wan Kenobe of Gold, that’s actually pretty funny. It’s good comedy if you ask me because my real purpose in being here is to mock the hubris, arrogance and egotistical certainty of posters just like you.
Don’t take this all so seriously. Until you or I show up with real names as real people, all these threads and conversations are about as valuable as time spent watching *real* people playing Pac-Man on a console.
And if I want to dress up in a pink leotard, put a panty hose on my head and call myself Jesus in this fantasy world of ours I am pretty sure that’s OK too. Its just entertainment buddy. And nobody cares how much fictional money an anonymous Matthew made or did not make.
We are here for fun. Not to be impressed by the words you use to excite your wife.
IRISHTONY………………Platinum at $1003…..looks like you were correct……
I’m happy for you Jerry…I’ve been watching the two of them for a while & it seemed like the right thing to say…..Lucky for me I was right this time..for a change.
Thanks Irish…….silver looking good………hope $16.20 plus can hold
Platinum closed at……….$1000
Just an added note on that DUST set up Frank. If you check the charts you can see that it did not hit bottom when gold peaked in early March (when gold goes up, Dust goes down).
In fact it has taken an entire month longer for DUST to see its own bottom just below 2.00 which means it kept falling even as gold started to trade sideways, rise and make that right shoulder.
So if you had anticipated a DUST trade early on when it looked like gold initially “topped” you would now be sitting on a 50% trading loss due to the extended lag time.
Now that Dust itself has found a bottom it tells me gold has likely exhausted its climb and is ready to roll over at long last for an overdue correction. That’s my theory anyway. We shall see how it plays out in the coming days. Since I drink my own Kool-Aid I can tell you now that I bought the idea.
Great price too. Dust is on sale.
You have a point on DUST……..short term roll over in gold to test what number?
Don’t hate on this Frank but I think a 100% retrace is possible for gold. So its all the way back down to 1050 or thereabouts. After that we get a lower low. Nobody will believe that here so I won’t labor the point further or bother with showing why on a chart since it won’t make any difference to this crowd anyway.
But that is what I think is coming. Much lower gold prices. Reversals in mining shares too.
100%……….1050……..CRIMEX is going to have a heck of a problem with that one, with the new exchanges in place……….jmo
Frank, no matter what miners have done, gold itself is still within its falling bear market channel. I have little doubt gold will attempt to seek its own bottom again if this Head and shoulders pattern fulfills itself. So its down we go and those trusty servants of gold (the miners) should pile in after the fact. Not long to wait to find out either. The H&S turns all swan-divey or gold makes a move up to 1300 dollars or better.
I just happen to think we are going to get a big dive from the high board.
Well the CENTRAL BANK IS not closed yet………..and they surely have not given up, and the world is in a mess………..and QE is on the way…..the dollar is still standing, and as long as the central bank can print……gold is in for a ride….up, down, sideways..and therefore,,,,,,,,you could be correct.
Farmer one thing that none is mentioning is that bear trends in commodities end up with a bancruptcy phase and lot of mergers and aquisitions and these have not come yet albeit in my opinion they are not far away.
I have a theory that the President met with Yellen to ensure she was not about to make comments on further rate hikes. The US is close to recession and another series of hikes would be the last straw. Not only that but another hike would put a hole in the side of the equity markets hull. None of that is acceptable to a sitting President especially during an election year. What Obama wants is that nothing goes wrong between now and the vote. He cannot afford for the Fed to dampen the economy, his parties chances at keeping the White House or for his term to end on a sour note (eg …a market crash).
So no more hikes. The Fed Presidents should be telling us informally soon enough.
Excellent point Don. The gold bulls are getting way too far ahead of themselves in my view.
Are you figuring the Gold Miners are going to imminently turn down Farmer IC ?
DUST is the 3 x inverse of GDX.
Thank you for reminding me Shad. You are correct of course. DUST functions as a proxy on gold with higher leverage because it is based around miners. The miners are more volatile than gold itself. Obviously it is my belief that gold is near to a decline and therefore DUST will be profitable IN SPITE of the fact miners have somewhat disconnected from metals recently. If gold does take a dive in the next while as I believe then the bloom will come off the rose for the sector in a damned hurry. So far this year that has not been the case and the miners have held up respectably well so I might be gambling a bit. I think the risk is acceptable though but I may have to hold for awhile. I am hardly concerned. I like the look of the chart right now and think a rise is in the cards. Torpedoes be damned!!!!
You can call me crazy now since I am obviously bucking the trend!
FIC………..YOU are a trend setter………… ๐
You should see my hat!
IS it like CAT IN THE HAT……….
Farmer IC – thanks for the response back and unpacking your thoughts on the trade.
I’m very undecided and keep trimming my stocks into the strength thinking this run is getting a bit long in the tooth, but then I get paranoid that the miners and stocks are just consolidating and that I’m going to miss a move high, so I keep going back and adding positions back. I have trading ADD at the moment because it is so hard to call the trend at this point.
Some of the Morris Hubbartt videos I posted on the weekend show with the flag pennants (that make camel heads) make it easy to see where gold and the PM mining stock may make a move higher. It’s fine with me to keep swing trading the volatility in the stocks, as I’ve made a little cheddar on the arbitrage, but I’m personally not ready to short the gold stocks. If gold broke below $1220 then I probably would.
Trading ADD….I can so relate to that. I was sick since middle January and only started charting again in the past few days. During the downtime though I was suffering a lot of conflicted ideas. Probably comes from being under the weather. I was having terrible dreams though and had I been well enough to sit for any length of time in front of the computer I probably would have been in trading psychosis with all the back and forth. Sometimes its just better to bury under the blankets and stay warm and do nothing at all.
Yes, when I get too batty watching the volatility in an asset class,( because I am typically zoomed in to the daily, hourly, 5 minute, and 1 minute charts) then I find I physically have to just walk outside and stand in the sunshine and ignore the charts. There are times I’ve avoided making a really bad decision by just sitting on my hands, turning off the computer, and just waiting until the next day.
It has been a freakin’ roller-coaster lately.
He says…….”reversals in mining shares too”……….of course I am not speaking for him, but, merely pointing out what he wrote, incase you did not read it correctly…. ๐
Its why we have a lag on the Dust chart Frank. We have a disconnect with the miners and gold. I think I mentioned that on the prior thread. Ultimately gold is the arbiter here though and gold is set to roll over. Maybe my argument is not perfect but I will go with what works. The other thing here is that I have a bad feeling stock markets are very near to a sell off. My target is 1650 S&P. In a nutshell I do not think miners will necessarily fare better than the averages which means I am extremely doubtful this current miners bull will sustain itself much longer. So I am selling the trend before it has changed direction.
If I am wrong you guys will have a great laugh at my expense! ๐
We would never laugh at you………..just with you…….and since you are sharing we appreciate the idea…………. ๐
Thanks buddy.
Now look out beloooooooow!
Agreed OOTB. I don’t think it is funny when anyone loses money, and always appreciate someone sharing their trading strategies and why they placing that trade.
Hopefully everyone does well with their investing as I believe things are about to break one way or the other in a very strong move. There is a lot of energy building up.
farmer dust has almost reached the lower line of the andrew’s pitchfork ๐
I am not a pitchfork guy. Is that good news or bad?
SOMEONE SHOW HIM some PITCHFORKS……….QUICK……….. ๐
good news indeed farmer!You are on the money my friend.Do your due diligence just the same.
Many thanks Don. Could you put up a chart to show me what you mean?
I cant farmer I am sorry.Proprietary rights.Wont let us.
That’s not what my pitchfork shows. Dust could be halved again.
Patience is a #1 virtue. ๐
Indeed you are correct Matthew. It *could* be halved again. But then again we could also find out that the Queen of England is really a man in drag.
Btw, you are actually agreeing with me Matthew. You only differ on timing. A drop of 50% is not that great a drop relative to the 86% losses since January when the declines started. I am assuming you are saying you see DUST turning up before it hits a dollar.
You have to go way back matthew i.e. from the date of inception 12/06/2010.Draw the lower line from there and the median line from 8/26/2013 and the upper line from 6/24/2013.
I’m sure Franky may be able to find a video somewhere on youtube that shows the Queen of England is a man in drag. ๐ฎ
Bird, I wouldn’t pay much attention to what a 3x bear vehicle like DUST used to trade at many months ago. In fact, I’d rather start with GDX, GDXJ, HUI etc when analyzing the miners.
Don’t be surprised if a 15 or 20 to 1 reverse split is announced in the next month or two.
Btw, DUST hit an RSI(14) reading of 90 last summer. Don’t be surprised if we see the downside equivalent in the next month – which is 10. It is just under 30 right now.
Great comments on this thread Ex,Don,FiC,FFM and Matthew!
DUST does look really good!
And Matthew, it does look due for a reverse split.
Yep, I was wondering the same thing about a reverse split soon.
Me too. That could happen next week for all we know. So far so good with my idea. Yen is cooperating with me this morning where gold is concerned. The dollar is rising too which is a positive. That’s all it will really take to end this run in metals and miners.
Back in the real world….. I still can’t believe Chesapeake went up 35% today. Too damned funny. I thought it was going to be an ok trade when I bought it but that explosive launch came as a complete surprise.
Kind of nice when that happens though. So I sold it.
Matthew says:
“Bird, I wouldnโt pay much attention to what a 3x bear vehicle like DUST used to trade at many months ago.”
———————————-
I work with technicals using ETF’s all the time Matthew and have found they are incredibly helpful if used in modest time frames of a year or less. No worries there at all but I can understand from a purist perspective that there are distortions especially with an ETF like this one that suffer such heavy decay.
For me its about identifying turning points. I think I have got this one right although I might have timed my entry a few cents more in my own favour. No big deal though. I am playing this straight btw.
I bought the ETF directly. Not an option. So I can cycle in and out at will and play it by ear as the weeks follow. Should the trade reward I will double down.
Doc,
It does look like oil is going to head north, if it breaks this resistance area. What is odd about that is, the correlation between oil and stocks will be over. I certainly don’t see stocks going up much. Hmmm
Weird things happen just before a correction. This just confirms my belief that we will see a healthy decline in the next while. VIX is in the red again today. Too funny. Lets hope that it drops back to a 14.00 handle before anything big happens.
Chartster I think that stocks are lagging oil otherwise it makes no sense to me.A low price in oil and copper reflect a stagnant economy.The rise in stocks and drop in commodities strengthens the argument that corporate/central banks buyback is what is keeping stocks at these nosebleeding levels.
doc, dumbfounded with your comments regarding gold and oil. Suddenly we’re in the first inning of a bull market?? really. well for what it’s worth, I’m not onside with you on this one. same story as many times before, in a matter of 8 wks all the bears who were trying to figure out how to simply hold on to their money by totally cashing in are now talking multi year bull markets. What has changed to have that change of view?? Nothing except for wholesale short covering of previously horrendously oversold markets and hype.
Harry…Its all hype…one just has to hope the hype is on your side.
Harry, I also think its late in the party to be getting all bullish as get out.
what happened to all those commercials, are they now the dumb money after the touting about how their increasing short positions being the ultimate harbinger of things to come for gold. LOL
When the last bear turns bullish it’s time to consider the other direction as being close to happening
Harry…Its all a big game & we are not in the team we are just the pawns.
But sometimes when the players are not looking, we can dash in & steal something.
You might like stock car racing Tony!
Crash helmets anyone? ๐
ditto harry.When the last bear turns bullish it is time to consider the other direction.Be greedy when the others are fearful.Last but not least harry patience is a no 1 virtue in trading and not many have it.Stick to your guns buddy and you will be rewarded.Commercials are not dumb at all but oil snake salesman says anything to sell his fraudulent goods.This is a mind game harry.
irish, that’s about it. The markets are no longer an investment vehicle, but a grand casino. But, one can wait patiently for their opportunity, and this is one of those times in my view. Gold has rocketed and now sat flat for more than a month. Oil is being hyped as a contrarian play, and with inventory report tomorrow everyone is frontrunning possible good news as if it really means anything, also the opec meeting next week.
good time to do nothing and watch as it will be pretty evident when things turn the other way, and that will be when all the good news, once it arrives at long last for the bulls, does nothing to push the market up. I suspect right now there isn’t a bear on gold on this planet, soon will be the same for oil. Vix not quite there, but telling you that complacency is turning to greed.
The Archdeacon asked for Keith Neumeyer…..
His latest:
https://youtu.be/-9OcsRLnICg
That’s a good interview. Thanks.
DOC
Glad to hear you being positive again. I’m sure you will enjoy your in-field, front row seats to the PM ballgame. Inning #1 has started. Bulls are still at bat. Bears have already allowed one run and committed two errors.
AS I have written MANY times, my approach to accumulating quality PM Miners has been simple: Since late 2014, I have been buying on dips and dollar-cost-averaging DOWN.
I now have ALL of the PM stocks I would ever want (originally I thought it would be 5-6, but is actually close to 20 now, and I blame Mathew and Excelsior).
For the next 3-5 years, I will hold, then hold in the interim, and finally hold.
I use GLDX and SILJ for trading large (week/month) trends so that I can have the satisfaction of selling and booking some profits, but not the heartbreak of selling out of one of my favourite stocks, only to have to buy back in at higher prices and less shares.
Cory – 10-baggers are not only a possibility, they have already happened (e.g., Claude). 4-5 baggers are becoming more common, as we speak: I have two in my PF: Americas Silver, Alexco
Brian
GREAT COMMENTS……………..
Very well written Brian and I like the baseball analogy. You are set up to make a fortune my good man. May you become incredibly prosperous and thanks for all your contributions here on KER.
Out of curiosity do you think MUX will acquired Lexam VG Gold?
Did you see the video about Integra gold and Eastmain working it out in their board switch-up, and in conjunction with Columbus Gold? It seems like they’re on the right track again.
I own both Mux and Lexam, and noticed Lexam was up 10% early this morning.
I have to admit I sold my MUX for profit and bought more LEX with some of the proceeds and the rest went into pure-silver PM Stocks.
Hey EX (CFS, OOTB)
Lexam: I’m hoping Mr. McEwen leaves Lexam alone until they are ready to build the mill. A merger of LEX and MUX will eventually happen, in my opinion. What would really annoy me? If LEX was bought by another large PM Mining company (not MUX). Swapping my Lexam shares for MUX shares would be completely acceptable.
Integra: As I have mentioned before, I believe Integra is the best positioned, pure-Canadian developer – even better than Pretium (which I also own). Actually, I am surprised that Integra has not taken off a LOT more than it has.
Brian
Good thoughts on MUX and LEX. Yes, it would be ideal to let Lexam keep developing and build more value before being taken over. Yes, I agree that an eventual transfer from Lexam to McEwen would be a nice takeover swap.
Yes, I think there are a few unknowns with Integra, but they have awesome assets, and a fantastic management team. They’re a very exciting story right now and I feel they will be for years to come.
Doc, what techinical about oil and gold has made you do a 180 turn to bearish to bullish. On thursday market wrap you said you think oil will soon test it low, a few week ago you said gold will drop and time 1150,
Doc is feeling the pressure and he is not the person to say no ๐
I have 3 shares of DWTI losing my arse with them. Got bumped out of UWTI yesterday for break even. Made a few $s on NUGT this week. About to get bumped out of SPXS. ECA is my only play rocking and rolling for me.
Jason………..Give FARMER SOME NOTES ON …….DUST……. what do you think?
Hey Jason. I’ve had 6 very profitable Oil trades in a row (4 short with DWTI, and 2 long with UWTI). Today I wrote Paul L. that I may be asking for trouble, but that I was shorting Oil with DWTI at $115.98. I was going for the Lucky 7 trade, because I thought Oil would double top. Needless to say, I had my arse handed to me as well.
Ouch!!
I realize the dollar has been very weak lately and that Oil traders are anticipating meaningful supply cuts to US production, but there are tons of tankers and storage facilities filled to the rim at present. I just wasn’t expecting this strong of a rally in Oil and thought it was a bit too much earlier today. Guess I was wrongo in the congo.
Well – I just went and looked at the streaming Oil prices and on the 5 minute chart, Oil has pulled back quite a bit, and the after-hours trading has reversed the losses a great deal, so I’m almost back to parity. (sigh of relief).
Check out the 5 minute chart Jason – you may feel a little better ๐
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
Two percent decline so far in the wee hours shad. Good work buddy. You should be in the money now. Looks like oil may even post an outside reversal which suggests even more downside this week.
I am happy as hell I sold Chesapeake yesterday. It rose up and stopped right on the 200 day and that was my cue to get the hell out of Dodge. I may join you and get short WTI as the day opens depending on the charts.
Wow Doc – that is a big move.
(Anyone got a good list of gold mining stocks?) – lol