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What’s more important, international or domestic data?

April 13, 2016

The US markets are getting another buy and breaking the most recent short term top. This move is supported by the better than expected news out of China but is it sustainable? Some other important moves include the US dollar moving up almost a full percent plus silver holding its gains in the face of this rising dollar. Are these moves from international or domestic data/news?

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Discussion
22 Comments
    Apr 13, 2016 13:46 AM

    Chris, if oil does go down next week do you envisage that conventional stocks will give back this rally and go down along with it?

      Apr 13, 2016 13:44 AM

      Most likely, yes.

        Apr 13, 2016 13:05 PM

        You probably have seen this – Saudi oil minister rules out production freeze.

        http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/13/saudi-oil-minister-rules-out-crude-output-cut-report.html

        Why would they – it would defeat all the financial pain they have gone through over the last 18 months to drive down the price of oil.

          Apr 13, 2016 13:12 PM

          I meant that he has ruled out a cut. A freeze, a cut, what’s the difference?

          The Saudis have been putting in more rigs in recent months – not the sort of thing you do if you are anticipating on cutting oil.

          I think that most of us in the West totally underestimate the hate that exists between Suni Saudi and Shia Iran. They truly hate one another.

            Apr 13, 2016 13:26 PM

            They might just agree to discuss a freeze for the next meeting after April if Iran co-operates.

            Apr 13, 2016 13:48 PM

            Yes, and the “freeze” will be for Saudi Arabia and Russian to just cap production at their already historically high levels, Mexico is just going to listen, and the US and Canada won’t announce any official cuts, but they have been forced to because of the low prices. Iran isn’t having any freeze and is actually increasing production.

            People are just looking for any reason to get bullish Oil, but there is more pain to be felt. Keep in mind that many of the producers need $50-$60 Oil to break even or eek out a small profit, and Oil has been in the mid $20s- low $40s all year. The chickens will be coming home to roost as the financial ramifications of the hedges coming off and the debt burdens become to heavy start sinking over-leveraged companies over the next 3-6 months. More pain to come……then production will get cut due to carnage. Then the financial institutions will puke up losses, and the stock markets will get a 1-2 punch to the gut. When there is real blood in the streets and people doubt whether shale will ever come back and news anchors postulate an end to the oil patch, then I’ll start buying up small producers again.

            Apr 13, 2016 13:30 PM

            And, Bob, I listened to an analyst several days ago who was reporting from the Middle East and reporting that Saudi Arabia and others are telling their own people/media that production is going UP. This whole jawboning up of the oil price by some 60% or so from the bottom has been on little substance, and much more on camel-scented hot air.

            Apr 14, 2016 14:06 AM

            The thing we must remember is there exists an essential battle going on between the will of Nation-States and the private companies that are being ruined by the political brinkmanship.

            We refer to what Saudi Arabia wants as though it is the same as the corporate interests behind the words. But nothing could be further from the truth. At least in the way most people understand how business is controlled and directed.

            Saudi Arabia is not a company any more than Russia is (Technically speaking anyway!) No wonder nobody asks what “Canada” thinks about oil prices as all of its major companies in the oil patch are actually listed issues and not government agencies.

            They are quite unlike Rosneft or Aramco which are really state actors to a large degree. So it is political bodies determining the fate of private interests. And it is nations willing to sacrifice state revenues without regard to the health of the industries and shareholders that ultimately pay the price.

            What a curious game this is where nations are pit against one another along religious, national and sectarian lines when it is the very health of the global economy that is at stake.

            We don’t talk about this much….but where are the voices of the industry in this din and cacophony of political posturing and geopolitics? In another age it would have been oil baron executives that sat around a table and divided up the spoils of the planet.

            Or in yet another time it was billionaire Railway and Steel maker magnates that ran the world and the elected class were beholden to them. I think we are learning that oil markets really are entirely under the direction of dictators, despots and our democratically(!) elected leaders.

            The corporatization of the world has actually shifted into the hands of those who control the levers of the States they represent while the figureheads that run those firms are no more potent than the puppets who sit in high office.

            So who is REALLY running the world?

            Apr 14, 2016 14:30 AM

            Interesting thoughts Farmer IC, and good point about national interests in the Oil markets versus the publicly listed companies in Canada.

            GH
            Apr 14, 2016 14:32 AM

            Farmer,

            The ONE BANK 🙂

            Google that with Jeff Nielson

            You’ll love it

            Apr 14, 2016 14:48 AM

            Cool. Will do GH. I am a big fan of Jeff. We used to talk regularly but its been ages now since the last time we had a discussion.

    b
    Apr 13, 2016 13:11 AM

    http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/

    The Rise of the Fourth Reich, Part II ummm, thats the U.S.

    Anyway, a lite read that puts together alot of what the banks have done for the last 100 years or so.
    Whats happening now is just wash rinse and repeat.

    I think about a year or so ago I would say “step by step”.

    I was kidding when I said “a lite read” its actually in depth.
    Not that knowing or understanding any of it would change anything one iota.lol
    He does good work tho.

    Apr 13, 2016 13:18 PM
    Apr 13, 2016 13:20 PM
      Apr 13, 2016 13:21 PM

      This is just a follow up on our conversation recently on Defiance Silver, and that they did finally raise some money to continue their exploration efforts.

        Apr 13, 2016 13:36 PM

        Excelsior:
        Different topic. I wanted to comment earlier today but had to leave the computer. However, a pleasant sight on UEC greets me after closing, up almost 6%. Technicals look good. OBV, MACD and Slow Stokes are rising on the daily. Price broke a 6 wk. trendline on the daily. Todays volume was best of the month.
        We get through the 50 Day and I think we’re off……….

          Apr 13, 2016 13:32 PM

          Agreed. I was very happy with movement in many of the Uranium stocks today.

    PF
    Apr 13, 2016 13:34 PM

    JP Morgan’s net income was $5.5 billion. That’s not bad at all. The p/e for this company is still only around 10.

    Apr 13, 2016 13:07 PM

    Chris, as usual, you the man. I love the fact that u admit u missed the move and your advice on being comfortable with missing moves is that of a wise trader and investor.

    Apr 13, 2016 13:23 PM

    Hike consumption tax to 10% as planned next April, IMF urges Japan
    APR 14, 2016 – KYODO

    “WASHINGTON – The International Monetary Fund urged Japan on Wednesday to raise the consumption tax rate as planned next April so the country can secure funds for stimulus measures to prop up its faltering economy….”

    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/14/business/hike-consumption-tax-10-planned-next-april-imf-urges-japan/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+japantimes+%28The+Japan+Times%3A+All+Stories%29#.Vw8o3vnVtAF

    Apr 14, 2016 14:04 AM

    So just for the hell of it I plugged Hillary Clinton’s name into an anagram finder to see what it might reveal (as if it might give some divine hint about her presidential hopes). And I came up with a lot of results that don’t mean much at all.

    For the curious, Hillary Clinton’s name contains the letters to make the word “Holy” but also includes the letters to make the word “Liar”.

    But hey, it was worth a try!
    —————————————-
    I can roll thinly
    Lily lint anchor
    Canny Thrill Oil
    I Can Only Thrill
    A Trillion Lynch
    Loin Lynch Trial
    All In Riot Lynch
    Rich Linty Loan
    Chilly Torn Nail
    Chilly Rant Lion