Gold moving down and is energy a good long term buy?
Chris Temple and Doc are with us for today’s market wrap. We start off by discussing the move down in gold and relating the move to what the US dollar is doing. The focus is then switched to energy and the question of is energy a good long term play? The key is long term.
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US Crude Oil Inventory Hit the Highest Level Ever: What’s Next?
Market Realist By Gordon Kristopher – 13 hours ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-crude-oil-inventory-hit-134722794.html
Skepticism about Oil Producers’ Meeting Impacted Crude Oil Prices
Market Realist By Gordon Kristopher – 13 hours ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/skepticism-oil-producers-meeting-impacted-134719393.html
Doc any thoughts on VIX ? It’ s getting pretty low now and what are your upside targets.
Listen to the daily commentary for today. Doc talks about the VIX. Basically, the risk/reward balance is significantly in favor of reward. Of course, doc, can chime in here too and would be greatly appreciated.
I bought some TVIX today at $4.059 and will pile on if it gets into the $3’s.
I bought some more today, Excelsior. I expect I may have to hold it for a couple of weeks or more, but better to buy low.
Yes, I’m fine holding it for a while if need be. The complacency in the markets never lasts. Something always comes along to spike the fear and thus volatility. It’s not a question of if volatility will spike, but more a question of when?
Agreed.
Vix is well worth buying at these levels as a market correction and high volatility will be here within weeks and this summer could be a roller coaster ride like last year. I only long the vix now and have cashed out of everything except some Valeant bought on dips.
Speaking of Chris’ comments on copper, I believe lots of silver production comes from the copper industry, as a secondary kick from their primary production of Copper. I’m hoping for less copper production, to help keep the supply of silver tight. Comments?
Great point Silverdollar. There are very few pure silver plays. Most of Silver production is the by-product of Base Metal production like Copper, Nickel, Lead, Zinc. Even most of the “Silver” stocks have almost as much or more base metals, but they simply report in Silver Equivalent Ounces. There are also a fair number of Gold/Silver deposits.
Eric Coffin and Scott Gibson suggest some stocks w/ Jay Taylor
Published on Apr 13, 2016 – Turning Hard Times into Good Times
Eric Coffin and Scott Gibson suggest some individual stocks that may serve you well and tell if we are heading for a major decline in stocks and bonds.
They discuss First Mining Finance, Silvercrest, West Red Lake, Avino Silver and Gold, Newmarket Gold, Kaminak Gold, and their upcoming show.
Otto had an interesting spin on West Red Lake & Gwen Preston pumping it also.
For those interested.
Cheers.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/understanding-conflicts-of-interest.html?m=1
Allan Barry has been promoting West Red Lake as one of his sponsors as well.
Exactly what I commented on the show a few days ago, Silverdollar; one reason there is a supply deficit of silver now.
Saudis could actually decide to increase production this weekend and the oil price would collapse, driving loads of their competitors towards bankruptcy?
Let’s hope so.
I agree w/Doc and Chris that the PM sector is just correcting, and will go higher.
Question for Chris on the URA ETF – do you actually buy it using a brokerage acct? The daily volume is way too low for me – just look at a 5 min chart and see how much of the day the ETF wasn’t even trading, not even 1 share. So my q is, do you actually trade URA? I wouldn’t think it’s possible – to BUY, let alone SELL. My biggest concern is that, if one could manage to buy some, one wouldn’t be able to get out of it to sell it, because there might not be any buyers. Thanks.
Many thanks for pointing that out Bill.
Bill, URA is more liquid than may of the individual Uranium stocks, but I’ve bought and sold it in the past without much issue. I haven’t owned it in years as I am much more interested in building positions in the quality companies that will rise over the next 2-3 years.
Best of luck to you in your investing sir.
Thanks guys.
I’m super practical when it comes to stuff, incl. trading. I don’t see how one can safely trade this. Not for me anyways.
Will continue to focus on GDX. 😉
Best of luck in what you invest in Bill in Tokyo. People should only invest in what they feel comfortable owning.
Uranium will rise for years as the spot price is bouncing along the bottom and can’t fall much more without a complete market shut down. The world will need more fuel to power the 420+ existing reactors and 62 reactors under construction and the 120+ planned or proposed. As a practical matter, I feel more comfortable owning smaller Uranium producers than the PM producers where their spot pricing could still drop further or rise, but it is much more up for debate.
Really, they are both apples and oranges since Gold is a financial asset and Uranium is an energy commodity, but both have very bright futures.
This video with Amir does a fantastic job of unpacking the Demand and Supply fundamentals for the Nuclear Power industry. Definitely one of the better presentations I’ve watched in a while.
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Gwen Preston introduces – Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC)
Featuring CEO Amir Adnani (one of the best young up and coming CEOs):
Scott Gibson introduces – Energy Fuels (EFR)
Featuring CEO of Energy Fuels (UUUU) – Curtis Moore
Commodity-TV: Rick Rule – The Arithmetic Reason Why the Price of Uranium Will Rise
Rick Rule is in rare form in that interview above. Hilarious and informative!!
Yes, you can buy URA in any brokerage account. And this is an ETF I have advocated buying for the longer term – not trading. Provided with this (or any) ETF, if down the road you were trying to sell it when there is a stampede of selling, maybe that would be an issue. I am not worried about that, though.
Anyone got any opinions on Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)?
A couple of big hedge funds seem to have taken big positions in it.
Is it one of the stocks Doc has been nibbling at?
I owned Cheniere Energy years ago and is one of the first companies to export Liquid Natural Gas in a major way, so it is a market leader. It is a bit too big and bulky for my tastes but it is a player in Nat Gas.
Thanks Ex:)
I’ll be writing about that soon…untold story of how the whole LNG export model may blow up.
Oh :/
maybe I’ll wait until I read that.
Thanks Chris
I saw this article on Casey Dispatch, and regardless of what you may think of them, this summaries my Tiered system or Fading into stocks that I’ve been discussing in a much better way than I’ve been able to articulate so I’m pasting that part of the article for everyone’s benefit as food for thought.
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Buying in Tranches
One more thing on when to buy…
Even when all the stars align, and you’re sure you’ve found a great pick, do not buy all of your shares at once. Buy in “tranches.”
When you first decide to buy, buy a fraction of your ideal position. We recommend 20%. If the stock happens to take off for the moon the next day, at least you’ll have a stake. You’ll record a win, even if it’s not as large as you’d hoped. A win is still a win.
We discourage investors from going all in because markets fluctuate—the juniors market more so than almost any other. Having a stock take off the day after you buy is so rare that it makes no sense to give it much thought.
Instead, expect the stock to dip at some point after you buy. Then buy a second tranche. We recommend another 20%.
This way, you end up with 40% of your ideal position at a lower average price than if you’d bought all 40% at once. This increases your upside on a much more substantial position. Then hold tight. If the company delivers, you’ll bag a nice win.
On the other hand, if the company keeps delivering but the market suffers a major correction, the shares will likely drop to stupid-cheap prices. That’s the time for a speculator pounce with gusto, preferably on a day when the market is off sharply.
This is when you place a “stink bid”—an order well below the current market price—for the other 60% you’ve been waiting to buy. Now you’ve filled your ideal position at a huge discount to the price you liked in the first place.
Note that this is different from averaging down on a company that fails in some way. We don’t give failing companies a second chance to cost us money.
The idea is to build a position in a company that is creating value for shareholders, even if—especially if—other shareholders don’t see it at the time.
And then, come payday, you reverse the process. Sell in tranches when everyone else is buying.
We take profits whenever a stock doubles for the first time. We call this a Casey Free Ride. After recovering your initial investment like this, you ride whatever upside is left, 100% risk-free.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/our-key-advice-on-buying-gold-stocks
I have a few free rides going at present in Silver & Lithium, and had a few in Gold earlier in the year. I recommend it for anyone’s portfolio 🙂
Does anyone here have a list of the gold/silver miners that have performed best since this rally began?
I recall someone posting such a thing back last year after the 2015 start of the year rally. Think someone also posted something similar last Autumn.
TOP 10 SILVER PERFORMERS for the last 3 months. (only for the wingnuts!) 😮
January 14 – April 14 – Composite Bar Chart
Americas Silver Corp (USAPF) – up 423.81 % !!!!
SilverCrest Metals (SIL.V) – up 348.28 % !!!
Canasil (CLZ.V) – up 333.33 % !!!
Impact Silver (IPT.V) – up 308.33 % !!!
Excellon Resources (EXLLF) – up 299.46% !!!
AZ Mining [Arizona Mining] (AZ.TO) – up 257.14 % !!
Silvercorp (SVMLF) – up 253.62 % !!
Coeur D Alene (CDE) – up 239.36 % !!
Alexco Resources (AXU) – up 227.92% !!
Orex Minerals (REX.V) – up 206.67 % !!
****It will be interesting to see this chart next Tuesday when the 3 months start Jan 19th!
Nice………………….. 🙂
Thanks Excelsior.
What does ‘only for the wingnuts’ mean?
Brent Cook and Mickey Fulp were doing a “PDAC at the Bar” interview for Kitco and remarked that the “smart money” and “sophisticated investors” were in gold, where the Silver investors were kooky and a bunch of “Wingnuts”. They laughed and had a good chuckle about it, and then took it further insinuating that people that attended the Silver Summit were all conspiracy theorists.
Matthew put out a great and funny rant about it, as did I. A few weeks back we noted that for being a bunch of “Wingnuts” that the silver stocks we invested in early this year kicked the crap out of many of the stocks Brent and Mickey had as their top picks. I love both those guys and read everything they put out, listen to all their audios, and watch all their videos, but to call Silver investors Wingnuts on a KITCO interview (who sells Silver to their nutty audience in the first place) was a bit to rich even for a smartass like myself. When I looked at these 200-400% gains in the Silver stocks I just couldn’t help toasting to the Wingnuts. 🙂
Oil could be a good “long term” thing.
But, from what Ive been reading the earth is producing a great deal more than it uses.
Storage facilities are full, ships remained docked as storage.
Then we have Iran beginning to produce, Iraq increasing, Canada wants to get to tide water etc.
The world is awash in oil and we are looking at a worldwide depression.
Sure, oil will blip up and down and if ya have the asch to leave for…who knows how long really? It would be a good long term investment.
The way I see it, is it could be a long term before making any coin.
Other than trading of course.
On the other hand, Hillary could become prez and we get a good ol fashion reduce the population war and oil will go ballistic.
Unfortunately, none of us could be around for a long term if that happens.