Trading strategies for these markets
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So far today, the conventional markets are basically treding water while the precious metal are weakening just a bit. Here is what we have to say about this.
CHECK your rabbit ears………..
That’s Sound advice OOTB….CCF.
good one………..ears…sound……..ha,ha…..
jerry,
looks like silver is still (for now) holding the 16 handle. Gold gave it all back, dow and the dollar starting to make their big move upward.
Just need to hold the $16 for awhile …..
Silver is hard to come by in the Midwest……..inventories low……no 100 oz bars…
Bobby,,,,,,,, go read what ..b……posted concerning the law suit on DB.
FRIDAY………….SILVER …………$16.35…….looking good…………
Gold’s $33 billion man: Don’t doubt, keep buying
Eric Rosenbaum – 3 hours ago
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/golds-33-billion-man-dont-123000815.html
He is dead wrong. Gold has turned bearish again. Its going down.
sure does appear that way.
You have got to really watch those business TV guests. They are doing favours for their friends and trying to rope in the sheep and uninformed buyers at the peak. Its the oldest game in town. I watched that segment and split a gut laughing at almost every damned word out of the guys mouth. He said it with such a straight face. And most of it was BS.
Just short term bearish, in a bull market………….
We will see what the HUI does in the next couple of weeks……..after tax time.
How did you do on the DUST……………..
Still have it Frank. Performance is modest so far. Gold will need another drop to scare the pants off the guys who are holding miners and be ready to bail out to preserve their gains. Right now they are busy buying the dip since they all think this pull-back is a gift, rather than a trap.
They will find out otherwise soon enough.
DUST should see good movement next week though. There is a delay between gold dropping and Dust rising that is not one for one when traders are feeling bullish like now so this will take a little extra patience on the way down.
Next time I do this it won’t be with a straight ETF though. I need more action than that.
thanks for the reply……..Hope you do well…..
I was thinking of trading while on horseback. That should add kick to my bets. If only I could balance the laptop better. You ought to try it sometime. I was running some GPS one day and the thing dropped in the muck because I was one handed and distracted. Kind of p*ssed at the time. Stupid horse!
Ride em cowboy……………yeeeha…………..
I thought the point that was interesting in that piece is that you have a main-stream media person commenting that the institutional money was flowing into the Gold space to get their 5-10% allocations in place for the risk off environment. After such a long time with many funds or institutions having minimal to know exposure, now they are taking small positions to re-balance, and he didn’t think these flows were just hot money.
That was the main reason I posted it because I thought that was an astute observation.
minimal to no exposure (not “know” exposure) 🙂
Sorry Shad, did not mean to sound critical of you for putting it up. I rarely watch the TV pundits anymore and don’t know many of the names of the hosts or guests these days. Its been years actually since I tuned it out. Right around the time I started sorting the markets without outside “help”. Ha!
Anyway, I could not help to critique the guy. He was off-base for me. Just out of tune with most everything I believe and know.
Understood. It’s good to be critical if you feel someone is off base.
I’m not a big fan of the main stream media or CNBC, but I thought the point that it was institutional inflows into gold instruments versus the hot money trend-following retail segment was an interesting point.
Normally I post a little blurb about why I’m posting something, but should have done that. Often times I disagree with some of the premises or opinions found in an article, audio, or video I post; however, there may be one saving grace or a solid point that is made despite the rest of the piece. That was the case here where most was rubbish but I liked that concept about smart money getting positioned.
To me life is a buffet…… I take what I like and leave the rest….. 🙂
FED……AND THE ELECTION…….
FEDspectations…..
My Continuing Fascination With VIX Linked Products
Peter Tchir -CONTRIBUTOR ON FORBES- global macro, fixed income and trading.
APR 13, 2016 @ 06:46 AM 6,688 VIEWS
“I continue to be drawn to the activity in VIX related ETF’s and ETN’s – primarily UVXY, TVIX and VXX….”
I had sold my (TVIX) on the recent spike on Tuesday at $4.73, but after watching the general markets march higher with such overconfidence and complacency, I decided the VIX is getting ridiculously low again. I just bought back a position in (TVIX)at $4.059 and will add to it in a big way if it dip down into the $3’s.
I added more Vixy yesterday as it could get rough this summer.
It’s only a matter of time before the volatility returns….. (next week?)
If you use this as opposite fundamentals, oil just might be going up.
Al, there is no consensus on this site with regards to gold. I might be alone here but I am extremely bearish both metals and miners right now and have been posting in detail exactly why for the past days.
What is happening on this site and so many others like it that group-think has again become the flavour of the day. Nobody seems to doubt the narrative that gold is going up. And if you will listen to them carefully it is going up substantially.
Every last one of them is wrong. Let me be very clear on this:
It is my opinion that gold will retrace most if not all its run since January. Three days ago was a good time to have taken profits on miners if you were well invested in the sector. I know you probably wont listen to a damned word of what I am saying nor will anyone else on this site but I am unequivocal in my beliefs.
They are based on my charting and technical approach (which as far as I can tell is entirely unique in the gold community since nobody else can see trouble has arrived). And I say that because I cannot find any analyst or popular gold blogger out there who agrees with my viewpoint.
Nevertheless, I did call this recent sharp decline. I wrote exactly why on this site of yours. And I have been dead accurate thus far.
According to my charts the sell-off in metals and miners is going to get a whole lot worse before this is all over. Depending on how Friday goes I will double down on the trade and go high leverage.
Best of the day to you, Al. And best of luck.
I am still waiting for 1130 or so.
We will see 1050 again by my calculations.
I had been waiting for the 800 area but that is not likely to happen. Starting a trade at 1130 and on down is probably a good idea.
I am in your camp Paul, maybe not 800 but we will again see triple digits.
You guys might want to go and read the article on DB, and the law suit on the silver manipulation ……b……posted it on a later segment.
Saw it Frank, thanks. There were no details though. So we don’t know if it was just an isolated incident on a single trade or something deeper.
THE law suit…….is GOLD FIXING………..which I think would cover more than one trade.
But, we will see………
But, then again………if DB IS GOING TO NAME OTHERS………in a manipulation, it would be for more than one…….conspiracy to commit……….
Just came across the wire….Deutche Bank has named a name. They are pointing fingers.
They said Frank from Moscow wuz the one behind it all.
I just KNEW it Frank!
Frank you naughty Russian…… working with the German banksters….. to corrupt the Crimex.
I am going to point my finger at ……IRISH……he made me do it……….. 🙂
JPM……has 43%……..IRISH HAS THE REST of the silver……
farmer you are not alone that thinks that gold has not reached its bottom yet.I have been saying that for quite a while and my belief has remained the same.Gold has to drop below the december lows.I say it as it is.No emotions and no hidden agenda and my disclosure is clear….I trade ups and downs and I careless which way gold goes as long as I make money.
OK, sorry about that Don. I might not have been following your comments that closely. I was pretty sick for a couple months there and was not keeping up with the shows or the writing here.
I would bet that far less than 10% of the people contributing to this comment section (or even people that just read these comments) are even 25% into their expected gold position (100% would mean you are convinced that gold and PM miners are going higher). The general investing public? No clue about gold/miners in a new bull market.
It was only yesterday that DOC made a slightly positive comment on gold and the miners (The first inning analogy).
No way gold is going to 1050 in 2016.
I’m in agreement that PMs and miners are going down. Just wait until the equity markets and gold get hit at the same time, that will bring the miners down pretty hard. After that’s over with, we might just have a bottom. But some of the miners have already bottomed IMO.
True enough. The companies have to be watched on a case by case basis.
Kind of curious what stock you recommended that doubled today Chris. Guess I will need a subscription to find out. I have been watching Fireeye the past few days though and it looks like it may move up again in the near future. Its worth keeping tabs on since its off so much since last summer.
About gold….I feel certain its going to see a 100% retrace back to the lows. That’s a controversial idea right now but if I turn out to be right I am going to have royally kicked some ass and cleaned up mightily.
Bird,
I think I know which one it is coz I sold for a double today…
Unless Chris had another one.
And you didn’t/don’t exactly need(ed) a subscription to find out btw…
Luv’
LPG
And I’ll say it here again:
Chris is a GREAT/VERY TALENTED stock picker.
In 3-4 mths, he got me 2 doubles – one of which he had mentioned on a show.
Best to all,
LPG
I agree LPG. I have often said Chris is the smartest guy in the room.
So what was the stock? Its sold now….you can tell us.
Bird,
As you know, Chris has subscribers who pay to get his recommendations.
So out of respect for Chris’ work, and his subscribers, I’ll kindly suggest you check w. Chris on the matter.
Sure you understand.
Best to you,
LPG
Didn’t you already say it was discussed on the show? I thought you to be a logical person.
Bird,
1 of the 2 stocks on Chris’ list and which recently doubled has indeed been discussed on the show.
The one that doubled yday, IMHO, has never been mentioned.
Guess that shall remove some of the potential confusion.
Best,
LPG
Farmer, from time to time I do give some of my recommendations — ALWAYS after my paid Members/readers get a good first crack at them, however.
That said, I am working on getting a key person from this company to do an interview on KER, and may also be talking with them about doing some I.R. work at long last now that their work seems to be coming to fruition. One of the unique things about this company is that they have consciously NOT been interested in any publicity or promotion; they have instead been working on building their company and funding it along the way largely out of their own pockets (among its major investors is a very wealthy player from the Middle East, and a well-known resource market personality; neither of them have any need or desire for a lot of attention where this company is concerned.)
So unless you are a Member/reader of The National Investor, you may be waiting for a while to hear about this one.
OK, thanks Chris. I was already thinking of subscribing actually. I asked below (in the wrong spot) if you still had an offer available. You had a special at one time for Ker readers if I recall. Let me know……. if you see this message that is.
Yep — sure do. Go to “Subscribe or Renew” at my web site.
Chris, meet little green men. Little green men, meet Chris.
I know gold and silver manipulation isn’t real because Chris says so :-), but he needs to tell Reuters and the New York District Court.
http://www.reuters.com/article/deutsche-bank-lawsuit-metals-idUSL2N17H1IA
You’re very selective, Jay — I have no less than four or five times on KER discussed in considerable detail one of the most incredible stories EVER of gold market manipulation that I was able to verify at the source. And I’ll repeat my offer again to you, my friend: if you would like my archived newsletter that gives these details, drop me an e-mail and I’ll be happy to send it to you.
Also, the Reuters piece is in some respect old news. I have ALSO mentioned numerous times a THREE-page story of many years ago in the Financial Times that probably went into more detail on the nefarious workings of some connected gold market movers/players than anything else I’ve ever read (and certainly more credibly than a lot of stuff I’ve seen from GATA and elsewhere.)
My beef is not that there is NO manipulation but that it is constantly overstated by “experts” as a cover for their inability to call the gold (primarily) market correctly from time to time. ALL markets can be said to be “manipulated” to some extent; none more than the Treasury market, IMO.
What is your subscription offer these days?
For a short time more, you get twice the term you pay for.
This fits the JNK chart, which will crush the equity markets real soon!
http://www.businessinsider.com/1-trillion-bond-bubble-ready-to-burst-2016-4
Ready to short big time. Thanks. and waiting.
Gold may not be moving much right at this hour of the day however DUST is now forming a cup and handle pattern (best seen on a short 5 day chart). There will be a power move to the upside on DUST tomorrow if that pattern plays out to completion. It looks like it may be near completion already.
I am more than optimistic.
Farmer regarding dust I think that we are very close to the bottom.Today price has touched the upper trendline projected from 4/05/2016 and touching the high of 4/06/2016.Imo dust has to drop slightly lower than the 2.01 level.I will be watching the 1day and 5 day chart very closely in the coming days.
OK, we will watch and see. I project higher before a meaningful pull back. Maybe I should see your chart and it would make more sense to me what you are saying but I don’t have 2.01 on my radar right now.
dust has reached 2.01 the day before yesterday.
Gotcha, a few cents from where I bought it. Now I understand you. I thought you were saying it was headed back to 2.01 and that threw me off.
No far from that.I already told you that you are on the money.You have bought it at a very good price imo.It is very hard to pick the exact bottom.What I am telling you is to stick to your guns if it goes slightly lower.Always dydd farmer and never forget to set the stop loss.
I don’t use stops anymore Don. Swore off the damned things quite awhile back. I figure if I am not really confident about a trade to begin with and I need stop protection then its better to just not buy it. Even during a crash or panic selling stops are useless. You get sold alright but at the worst possible place. Mostly I just hate getting sold out of a trade and crystallizing a loss that was otherwise survivable if it had just run five minutes longer!
Farmer IC have you noticed the positive divergence on macd from 2/10/2016 todate re.dust ?
I will look.
Check your Bollingers, Don. They are setting up very nicely right now.
For dust set the bb to 10 farmer.lbb is at 1.9 atm.The lbb is gonna be a huge support .Watch it carefully.
Sure thing. Thanks.
Just tried that. Not sure if I understand you though. My bb’s are set at 20,2 by default.
Do you mean reset to 10,1.9?
weekly lbb (10) is at 1.90 and rising as I told you farmer and slow stochastics are still embedded in the oversold territory.That is why I am waiting a bit more to jump in.Rsi is in oversold territory and price is very near to the lower line of the andrews pitchfork projected from the day of inception.The use of stop loss is very debatable.Like you said it is very frustrating when you see your stop loss get triggered and then see price roaring back a couple of mins later.Having said that with these leveraged etfs it is wise to master the way of how and where to set a stop loss because their decay is bewilderingly huge.I know that it is easier said then done.
Many thanks Don. I really appreciate the input. Most days I am just talking to myself on this site.
Yeah farmer set the period to 10 and standard deviation to 2.Do no hesitate to play with bb because sometimes you find a bb period that works better then other.For dust I use the 10 and 25 for eg.
Many trader use the 20 period bb and most of the time it is set by default on interactive charts but I like to experiment with differant bb and see which one tracks the price better.I find it very helpful.
I just spent some time plugging different combinations in to see the results. Its been awhile since I toyed with the variables. Mostly I keep my life simple by using the same tools and settings repeatedly as long as they are working for me. But I am open to new methods and appreciate your ideas. Have you been trading long, Don?
The past 2years but I spent many hrs before studying all types of technical indicators,Besides that I studied the elliott wave theories/fibonacci retracements.I know them by heart.having said that I like to keep it simple.That is my nature but I found along the way that the bigger your toolkit is the bigger are the chances to make profits in this business.
Interesting thoughts on changing the BB limits to a tighter time period.
More knowledge never hurts. I am self taught on technicals. Funny but a lot of what I picked up was just by watching repetitive patterns. Only later I found explanations online or from other traders about the meaning. But that’s just normal farm style. If you stare at a cloud long enough eventually it starts to rain!
Great comments……by short term traders………………JTHELONG
The handle part of the cup-n-handle is coming in as a three wave decline — reference Elliot Wave. There is a little more work to go before it hits the handle-bottom but its not far off. Should be done shortly and we are off to the races again for tomorrow.
The hourly chart on gold also shows signs of optimism for the bears. The top has rounded over and now threatens a waterfall decline that could strike at almost anytime. Price is consolidating between 1225 and 1230 but further declines are expected once that has completed. As i have been warning, the pattern is setting up for a sharp move lower although I cannot time it precisely. Best guess is Monday in the wee hours before markets open.
FiC,
Tuesday the Shanghai exchange starts pricing gold with phyz. That won’t bode well for the COMEX and LBMA….
Maybe not, but if the Chinese are in charge of their own gold fix then expect prices to drop, not rise. I never could understand the bizarre reasoning of some people who seemed to think a Chinese gold exchange would be positive for metals. It makes no sense….as if those guys are gold bugs or something!
On the other hand, the day may come that they will devalue the Yuan against gold. But not until they have a great deal more than they are holding now. That could take years.
GOOD……..THE CRIMEX needs some competition………
I think CRIMEX …..is going to get sued……..on the manipulation , if DB info is correct.
It makes sense that if they price with phyz and dump a bunch on the market that the price will drop. But once it dries up, the price will go up. Gonna happen that way is what I’m thinking.
Not if price is dropping! And don’t forget, they are the biggest buyer. So if they don’t buy it back immediately then prices can keep dropping even more. Remember too that once the gold is in China it cannot be re-exported back out. It is a one-way trip so the only pressure would be on Western stocks but if gold is falling in price then the likes of GLD will be dishoarding into the waiting arms of you know who.
As long as they (China) NEEDS gold, there will be pressure to keep prices flat or in decline. For now they have a target set at 2% of FX reserves however the unofficial target is more than 8000 tonnes and that’s going to take a few years to gather up.
Thanks.
INDIANS will pick up all the nuggets………..
Yes, but are they picking up NUGT?
I’m forever picking up nuggets in the backyard.
…..its the downside of owning two dogs 😉
You should teach them to pick up each other’s nuggets……… 🙂
funny
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