Thursday and The Doctor is In
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Aside from the precious metals sector, today was a bit uneventful in the convention markets and the energy markets. What implications could this have for investors? Listen to what we think.
Doc is everything to go into toilet first. I’m not buying this gold rally. We never made higher high above 1308. I’ve included some charts with channels for analysis.
Gold Bear channel still intact on gold
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/kadxWoQ1-XAU-USD/
https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/720640285433159680
Oil has h&s top as well.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/Y3EsZY34-Short-Oil/
Crb is rolling over and didn’t make higher high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p49348170292
Thanks Max. All aboard the gold pain-train (unless you already got off of course). I have a feeling this time its really going to hurt though. The bugs can only take so much more before their minds and wallets will snap.
Bring the gold-pain !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0BlXy3Roj4
LPG
Eurasian minerals has a very high bankruptcy score (in the mid 70s) on Macroaxis. I’m not sure if Doc kept saying “technically” and “from a technical standpoint” was because of that or not.
I appreciate all the commentary. I know I haven’t been around much lately. The gold bulls have been eating my lunch (and my portfolio too unfortunately), so kudos to all of you that stuck with it. I definitely didn’t expect gold to rally this high for so long. I feel so silly for selling Sibanye and Sandstorm right before they exploded, then sold Harmony on a small pullback.
All the best trading to y’all, and to the newbies who are riding this rally, be careful. The market has a beautifully harsh way of dealing with those who “know exactly” what’s going to happen next.
Good to see you on here again Wiseguy.
FYI – Eurasian minerals has a number of royalty streams so I’d be very surprised if they were to go Bankrupt.
I’ve posted on Eurasian minerals about 10 times this year that the reason I like them is that they are a project generator company with royalty streams, and their JV projects will produce more royalties, with the partner companies paying for the majority of the exploration.
Other Project Generators like Eurasian Minerals with similar business models:
Strategic Metals
Millrock Resources
Transition Metals
Midland Exploration
Aurico Metals
Idaho North Resources
Arena Minerals
Abitibi Royalties
Oban Mining Corp
Typhoon Exploration
First Mining Finance
With companies like these it is important to delve into their pipeline of JV projects, ownership percentages, and Royalty structures, and not become fixated on just chart patterns. Basically, looking at the big picture potential of where their cashflow generation will be over a timeline and how the royalties stack up. (Similar to a streaming company like Sandstorm or Silver Wheaton).
I’m a huge fan of technical analysis and it absolutely has it’s place, but sometimes it is important to get a grasp of the fundamental merits and business plan of a company or out-sized moves based on news releases will catch investors off guard.
Very well put Wiseguy. Sorry about your losses. I’ve only survived by holding an intrinsic faith in PMs and stepping away to do other things. Stand too close to the mirror and it always fogs up! Anyway, you’re still a wiseguy for acknowledging your mistakes! Best, A
I WOULD recommend everyone read the Deutsche Bank Law suit on MANIPULATION of GOLD AND SILVER……….things might be coming unglued for CRIMEX…..the charts might not be what one expects……….read at zerohedge
I see the TURD REPORT JUST POSTED………
Note…….might be for silver only……….per Turd report.
Doc:
Speaking of a head and shoulders formation, if one looks at the SPX and takes the double low as the head, do we have an inverse H&S formation, provided the SPX doesn’t keep moving higher?? If so, there is a potential 2850 points down target!
I love your analysis of the VIX and am investing accordingly, since I agree. Ad that VIX idea with the H&S (if it is one) on the SPX and WOW, could things ever get interesting, as you say. Than ks for your comments.
R.I.P. America’s Coal Industry
Published April 14, 2016
“The last pillar of America’s coal industry has fallen…
Yesterday, Peabody Energy (BTU), the largest U.S. coal miner, filed for bankruptcy. Its stock has stopped trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Peabody was the last major U.S. coal miner still standing. Arch Coal, Alpha Natural Resources, Patriot Coal, and Walter Energy all filed bankruptcy within the past year.”
• The price of coal has plunged 75% since 2011…
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/rip-americas-coal-industry
Was that one of those energy plays… , you shorted………COAL DUST……..
Ha! Good one OOTB…..CCF. As you know I am NOT a fan of Coal overall, and have been posting articles for over a year that showed the slow motion phasing out of this industry. There are many bankruptcies from key players, and many of the Commodity conglomerates have been divesting Coal assets as quickly as they can. In my opinion almost all the other sectors in the Energy space are MUCH more appealing.
This article on Peabody was more of a “I told ya so…….” post. 😉
I should mention that I still see Coal as necessary for the energy mix because it still supplies a big part of the base load power, but many of the plants are being converted over to Nat Gas Plants, or they are substituting Nuclear and Renewable sources in many countries for Coal.
While I believe many Coal stocks have been oversold, those investors jumping back in are swimming against the current of the political will to make a dent on carbon output, the Paris summits, and the initiatives of hundreds of countries. Many emerging countries are skipping Coal all together focusing more on Nat Gas, Nuclear, and Renewables for their smaller carbon footprint and there is a global shift in the energy markets going on. There are some still to stubborn to accept that the cheese has moved…..
I still believe there is plenty of time to make money on coal stocks.
Both of mine are personally back in the green…..one is up over 50% from my average in cost.
It will be years yet imo before the tide turns.
……but I’ll go check the use by date on the cheese in the fridge just in case 😉
Cheers.
Funny Skeeta. Well I absolutely wish you all the best and hope you make a fortune.
The miners can drop a long ways before destroying any long term bullishness on the chart or causing a weekly MACD sell signal. However, for now, I do not think we’re in for an intermediate top.
At what number do you think chart bullishness will be destroyed?
IF the right side of the chart somehow mirrors the left side, then the pullback needs to be bought for the next push, which could be sizeable in % terms.
Again, mind the “IF” at the beginning of this post.
I have in mind Jason’s R-B latest video over the WE where he showed, historically – don’t remember which cycle part – the push #1, then the congestion/consolidation//fake H&S formation, then push #2.
I obviously can’t say this is what will occur, but this is a scenario I keep up there on the back of my mind.
Best to all,
LPG
I agree. Based on everything I’m looking at, I think the odds favor another leg much higher before we get a more protracted consolidation.
Me too. Next leg goes to $1400+, then re-tracement to low-$1300s, then finish up 2016 in $1350 area
Despite the lower gold price,
Several of my ASX miners closed up well over 10% today.
L
We have Schiff fork resistance at about .9% above today’s close for DIA. I still think a bull trap is being set.
DIA priced in GLD is at an important resistance:
The Russell is still 13% off of its June 2015 high and reversed at resistance today.
Thanks for all the comments on Eurasian. I like it because it is a royalty stream company but it’s streams are not just gold or silver. It also has copper and other metals and if I am not mistaken, it also has some uranium interests—-so it’s the diversification I like and the fact that it seems to be a well run company. It’s interests are also located on three or four continents so there is good political diversification.
The NYSE composite index is still 8% off of last year’s high.
“Interesting” comments !
LPG