A focus on silver and where it could go from here
We brought on Brien Lundin to recap the moves in silver. In a couple of his past newsletters Brien has been writing about the breakout in silver and how this is a different for the overall resource sector compared to the past 5 years.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Bird…are you trying to talk the metal market down? You seem to come roaring in when the metals decline but are pretty quiet when they are gaining..just an observation..not meant to be confrontational….
Are you kidding me? Do you really think it should keep rising from here? I thought you used to be a trader once?
Bird..ahh yes..many years ago but the charts then told the same story as the charts today…only thing that is different is the computers replacing open out cry.
OK. Probably not much really changes except now so much trading is technical and most of the shouting is done online! Yen is falling, USD is rising. CAD is maybe finally near its top. If the US dollar keeps going up as I expect then we will finally have our gold correction along with most of the bullish activity in commodities. The silver chart is already suggesting that may be in the cards but tomorrow we will know more.
As I watch near the close gold is dropping down & silver is floating down.
Silver is approaching the 16s level..perhaps somebody doesn’t like the number 17.
See that beauty candle on the silver chart Tony? I think the Goose is cooked. But what a run! Too bad I missed the last innings. Sold too early as is often the case. Just not greedy enough I guess or I don’t have the spirit of gambling in me anymore.
Bird.. Nobody knows with any degree of certainty what these markets are going to do from day to day.
Well sure they do. Don’t you? /sarc/? 🙂
A bit of distraction……….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-20/den-vipers-and-thieves
Spooky picture. I may have to expand my pin~ata business into a “Vipers & Thieves” lineup beyond just the Fed. Although, they did make this list that you posted.
I posted the REVISED Top 10 Silver Stocks Bar Chart for the last 3 months on Chris Temple’s blog today. Don’t look at the first Top 10 (that mistakenly included First Majestic and Arizona Mining), but the Revised one further down the blog that includes Bear Creek Mining and Santacruz Silver. In addition there is the 11-20th place Bar Chart, and the 21st-30th place Bar Chart in Silver miners, all posted on Chris’s blog today.
It seemed important to post those before we get the closing numbers in today, because the bottom on the miners was collectively on January 19th. Those charts show Jan 19th – Apr 19th and are a perfect 3 month snapshot on which companies fared best coming out of the Silver Stock bottom.
Enjoy!
Check it out as we have a lively discussion brewing about how the smaller companies have really out-performed the larger companies. 6 of the smaller compan
Woops – hit return in error…… 6 of the smaller companies have had between a 416% to a 520% gain in just the last 3 months.
Nevermind – I’ll just repost the correct chart….
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REVISED 3 MONTH BAR CHART OF THE — TOP 10 SILVER MINING STOCKS:
Silvercrest Metals – up 520 % !!!!!
Santacruz Silver – up 511.11 % !!!!!
Americas Silver Corp up 502.22 % !!!!!
Impact Silver up 482.61 % !!!!
Excellon Resources up 473.56 % !!!!
Bear Creek Mining – up 416.13 % !!!!
Silvercorp up 345.65 % !!!
Canasil Resources up 340 % !!!
Coeur d Alene 326.59 % !!!
Alexco up 324.46 % !!!
Anybody own Americas for longer than a year?……….
Yes. I’ve owned it off and on for several years when it was Scorpio Mining, and got more serious about it about a year ago. Then Scorpio changed names to US Silver and Gold, and that is when I bought my largest positions on Jan 4th at $.06, then on Jan 21st at .042, and on Jan 26th at $.045. That is when Matthew and Brian and I were “holding our noses and buying more.” 🙂 I also traded in and out of it early February a few times to reduce down my cost basis further. I’ve trimmed 3 times on the way up in late Feb, late March and last week, but I’m at a $0 cost basis and taking a free ride many times over on my remaining core position.
We’ve also discussed a few times on here their spin-off company Scorpio Gold. Americas Silver Corp owns about 9 % of Scorpio Gold, and they are a great little Gold Producer, that made 2 good acquisitions on years past, and has been producing for years.
For some reason, people have forgotten all about Scorpio Gold (SRCRF), and it has not really moved much on this Gold rally. There are a number of smaller Gold producers that have not moved much, or that people just don’t realize are producing gold (for example- Alkane Resources, Aureus Mining, Comstock Mining, Beadell Resources, Caledonia Mining, Doray Minerals, Gran Colombia Gold, Havilah Resources, Kidman Resources, Maya Gold, Medusa Mining, Orvana Minerals, Patagonia Gold, Rambler Metals, Ramelius Resources, Regis Resources, Resolute Mining, Sandfire Resources, Saracen Mineral Holdings, Sulliden Mining, and others….. ). Once there is more due diligence going on again from the larger investing universe, I believe some of these companies will get re-rated in a big way.
Over time I’ve been “nibbling” at Scorpio Gold Corp, because I’ve followed Scorpio Silver (later US Silver and Gold, and now Americas Silver Corp) for a long time.
The other smaller producer I’ve been putting a little money into for over a year now has been Jaguar Mining. I still feel they are ridiculously undervalued compared to their peers.
I’ve done very well recently with my Perseus Mining position as well for a smaller producer. They just acquired Amara Resources.
A few other smaller gold producers I rarely hear people talk about that are great companies are Kingsgate Consolidated, Troy Resources, and Silver Lake Resources.
The problem with my platform is that it keeps doing direct channel purchases on the Canadian exchanges in many of these stocks, so while I hold the OTC version, I’m actually buying and selling in Canada, and my shares don’t get reported as OTC volume.
I doubt Brent has had the kind of returns that the small Silver stocks have afforded the wingnuts invested in them 🙂 , but to each their own……
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Why Own Silver? Stick With Gold Says Geologist
Apr 20, 2016
Guest(s): Brent Cook
“Although silver has stolen gold’s thunder this week, managing to hit an 11-month high Wednesday, one famed geologist says he’s sticking with the yellow metal. ‘To me, silver is the poor man’s gold, and why would you want to own the second best,’ Brent Cook, editor of popular newsletter Exploration Insights, told Kitco News.”
THANKS EX………..
The dollar has had a very respectable surge today Shad. Bounced off support and is headed higher. that will take the wind out of the sails of metals (as it should). We don’t exactly have a breakout higher yet but I am crossing my fingers.
BTW…what’s the deal with TVIX? I don’t normally dabble in it and only bought in because of you and Doc were discussing how it usually rises once down to a certain level. But the VIX itself moved up 16% and TVIX actually declined!
Fill me in if you have a moment. I was not expecting that. Is there a delayed reaction or something?
Hi Birdman – Good question. Yes, there is a delay in TVIX & UVXY versus what will be displayed happening on the VIX. It is how the futures contracts are settled inside that ETF, so they won’t track real time.
(TVIX) can also continue to go up when the VIX tops, so keep that in mind when/if it spikes to the upside, as often TVIX or UVXY will keep going up after the VIX has rolled over for a few hours to a day or so.
I actually bought more TVIX today at $3.57 and continue to grow my exposure to this volatility instrument. I’ve averaged down a few times, and now have an overall cost basis of $3.89. What is going to punish this position is if the markets do break out to new highs as that could take the VIX down to 9 and TVIX below 3. I’d probably heap one last big position on if that happened and just wait it out.
Like the SNL sketch with Rosanna Rosanna Danna always said: “There’s always something……If it’s not one thing, it’s another…”
Many thanks Shad.
Also if you pull up a chart yesterday at $3.40 was the lowest TVIX has ever been on record, so I wouldn’t say we are in overbought territory here, but the markets are very close to all time highs.
It will be interesting to see if the S&P makes a run at the high this week, because there has been a lot of momentum in the general markets and they are acting bullish and ignoring bad news at the present moment.
If you think that will just keep going for a long time, then any of the volatility positions will keep heading lower and TVIX could even reverse split. However, if you believe the markets time at these levels is limited, then volatility is a great place to be. I’m in the camp that is surprised by just how strong the markets have acted lately, but realistic enough to see that traders may push it to a new record high. I’m personally willing to hang on and average down one last time in TVIX if the markets to race to new highs, and then’ll I’ll wait it out with that final cost basis. I’ll also put a line in the sand and likely a stop loss order in place if the trade went sour after the markets had already streaked up higher to all time highs, and did a blow off top even higher than that.
Outside reversal posting on TVIX today. Seems a lot of people think the market will bounce off resistance.
If the markets do get deflected down, then I’ll trim a bit off the TVIX position as it moves up. This way I’ll have a position in place to take advantage of a correction, but also some dry powder that I can set aside to use in case the markets attempt to break to new highs a second time after that.
Look at the candle on the VIX Shad and ask yourself if that does not warn of an imminent rise in the fear index. I would not be surprised if it reaches as high as 35 during May (sell in May and go away might finally have real meaning this year)
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=VX&p=w1
Great point, it is a bit elongated, but still looks like a Bull Hammer reversal candle to me. Yes, great point about the sell in May and go away seasonal factor that “may” just kick in over the next 2 weeks.
Look at that gap up on the Daily in the VIX. I see what you mean about it moving first, but don’t worry, if the move was that dramatic, then the proxies should catch up soon. The only thing is that the VIX will likely head back down soon to fill that gap, and then will start the charge higher into May.
Pure MANIPULATION this afternoon. Silver and gold TAKEN DOWN ON MINIMAL VOLUME when only the NY Globex IS OPEN. THAT VOLUME AT ANY OTHER TIME would have done much less damage to the price.
Dollar is up, Euro is down CFS. No manipulation as far as I can see. This is expected behavior.
Birdbrain, if the seller wanted to minimize his loss or maximize his gain on selling, please tell me WHY he sold at such a time that it produced maximum drop in price.
Such a sale is illogical and thus demonstrates other purpose…..manipulation!
Screw off with the name calling buddy.
Ex, thanks for all your charts.
Glad to share Cash For Silver.
Recent Trump political strength , is making people and governments world wide nervous. This in turn is making gold short term attractive , plus the odd military behavior of China and Rus . I just made a ton of money on 2 gold stocks, and also hold SGOL swiss deposit gold at a profit. Oil seems unaturally high at thsi price . love and good health to all . S
Stupid Public= those who have not been burned.
…Or totally incinerated….
Silver Blowoff Is Happening Now
By Gary TanashianCommoditiesApr 21, 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/silver-blow-is-happening-now-200125915
Well all I can say today is “thank G-D that the US Dollar is going back up today and there is growing volume on the silver short ETF’s as the vultures move in for an easy kill. Take profits boys….this won’t last much longer.