Has the narrative for PM stocks changed to buy the dips?
On our market wrap today we chat with Doc and focus on the US markets and commodity stocks. GDX and GDXJ sold off quite heavily at the end of the trading day but this could lead to a buying opportunity. More and more people seem to have the feeling that the PM prices are consolidating and commodity stocks could keep running. Does this mean the opposite will happen?
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The reason Argentex is up so much (45% today) is that they are being bought by Austral Gold, who I do follow, and the merger is a go. I read about it on Junior Mining Network a while back. I don’t see any official news out, but that is likely the driver.
I’ll post that release from Feb:
_________________________________________________________________________
Argentex Enters Into Definitive Agreement With Austral Gold
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Feb. 3, 2016)
I don’t see any new information or news on the Austral Gold website either, and haven’t heard a peep from either company for 2 months. Apparently somebody knows something is about to be announced……
Here’s the last announcement that Austral Gold put out on the merger.
___________________________________________________________________________
Austral Gold edges closer to merger with Argentex Mining
Thursday, February 04, 2016 by Proactive Investors
Hmm – I didn’t realize that they had produced 46,000 ounces of Gold and 41,000 ounces of Silver last year. Wow, I have mislabeled them as a development company. Hey, ya learn something every day…..
_________________________________________________________________________
Austral Gold March 15, 2016 – Half Year Accounts FINAL:
“Total production from the heap-leach process reached a
total of 46,254 gold ounces (Au oz) and 41,233 silver ounces
(Ag oz) in the 12-month period ended December 2015. The
average cash operating cost (C1)* for the same period for
the Guanaco mine was approximately US$626/AuEq oz.”
Thanks for making me take a closer look CFS. Much appreciated.
Thanks. I thought that might be it, but Austral did nothing today.
Agreed on the no movement form Austral. I can’t believe they are doing that much production though – that was a real surprise to me. I mean it’s still a very small producer, but it may be one to add to the big list of small producers that the marketplace hasn’t properly rated yet.
The action this afternoon looks like no more than a shakeout so far, to me. There was no sign of panic among those with significant holdings in the miners.
It might prove to be more than a gap-filling exercise but is probably not the start of an intermediate term correction.
The dollar finally looks like it can rise for a few days…
I notice there is a pretty good reversal candle on the VIX if viewed from a weekly chart. What bothers me here is that I think there will be some kind of market sell off that will coincide with miners correcting back down. I am not bothered because I hold miners though (I don’t right now)……but because a correction that takes both miners and general equities down together might be more than a garden variety decline. Just something to keep in mind.
Bird, why don’t you learn to put up some charts………… J
I do all the time. You never comment on them.Why bother?
GREAT CHART BIRD……..you out did yourself………….fantastic……… j…..
All Link, No Chart.
All Hat, No Cowboy.
Was that mean?
Only if you are a cowboy……….
Do you think that silver is going to pullback here?
Yes.
Look, it could go a little higher based on some technicals but after scouring my usual reading haunts today I have been unable to come across a word of negativity on golds little brother.
Its just article after article praising the current huge run and extolling the virtues of the second precious metal. Did you ever hear about the tale of how when major bullish news stories appear on the cover of magazines just before the top was in?
That’s what this feels like to me. I would not chase this rally from here but no doubt many will and they will probably be buying the top of this cycle. So when every analyst and his dog is pronouncing the bull is back for silver I just smile to myself like the cat with the canary.
Because it is VERY bullish (for the bears).
My feeling is it may try another time to get through $17.20 and if it can’t on the second try then we may have a deeper pullback to regroup.
When the shoes-shine boy or the taxi driver tells you to buy stocks,do the opposite and do it in a hurry.
Yup. Scoot on over to Financial Survival Network for a gander at all the bull articles on silver right now. There must be at least a dozen from all the usual suspects with plenty of interviews and all of it is the same. BUY..BUY…BUY!!!!
I love the scent of squashed bugs in the morning. Now its just a waiting game.
Same message every Wednesday with Andy H.
Like a broken record on a perpetual motion machine player.
its always the same, good time to buy, kwn is the classic.
but really its the mining industry paying the bills, would 1 miner advertise here if Al said dont buy their product?
who pays for the conventions? etc. Its a GREAT time to buy. lol
That’s right. For Andy Hoffman he is on the payroll of Miles Franklin. No conflict of interest there at all. Ha ha ha. I am sure you can count on everything that theatrical Andy has to say.
Could very well be a PM smack down underway.
YUP. I think so too.
chartster like birdman I think that both metals can go a little higher.1277-1280 is my target for gold which imo could be reached the day after tommorrow.
I reiterate that this 5th wave could very easily be a truncated 5th wave giving that 3rd wave was overextended.If price drops from the the 1280 level first target would be the 100wma at 1193.65 which happens also to be the .382 fib.retracement of the leg up from november lows.
That would be the first target ootb for those that decide to book some profit.
only , a small kiss on the cheek………
But then you look at a chart of November soybeans and that market just keeps pushing higher with corn, and cotton, and sugar so silver could just keep pushing higher from here as well.
I think silver topped out today. Silver looks way stronger than gold right now, but it looks like it’s going to drop, so gold should get hit pretty hard. Don, I was thinking 1280 as well, but also think that’s done now. The next two days will tell the story.
Silver needed to stay above $17… to stay noticed………….
HONG KONG …….silver went up to $17.59……..LOOK out $18
Chinese like Silver…………..
I think it will have one more good push higher and try to suck in a few more longs before a decent pullback, and then I think it will push much higher from there.
What do you think Matthew?
He thinks it will go up. Matthew is ALWAYS bullish metals. No matter what the charts say he finds a way to make them sunny and bullish.
Can’t critique his remarks all year, he’s been excelling continuously.
Well done Matthew.
Thank you Marty.
I believe you’re right, Lewis. This is unlikely to be the start of an intermediate term correction in my opinion. Way too many experts are in agreement and apparently Martin Armstrong just recommended selling. That alone could spark a selloff considering the number of lemmings that hang on his words.
So we have the retail crowd who missed everything so far and now the few who have been in are being told to sell.
Since silver could pull back enough to thoroughly trick the Birdmen of the world and still not turn bearish, this pullback in the miners should be bought by those who’ve missed out.
I did not miss anything ding dong.
I agree regarding buying miners at this next bottom. I think gold will retest or break it’s bottom, but just can’t see silver doing that. So, we are super close to a bull market in PMs, maybe just weeks away.
I do have a call option in silver that is in the money that I plan on getting out of tommorrow or Friday I should of got out today but got busy and forgot all about it hopefully it will not go down to hard so I can get out and wait for a pullback to reposition!
I hope things go your way. Longer term, silver is just getting started.
That’s an interesting Silver chart. I like the reversed symmetry you were pointing out in the indicators that you highlighted.
Lewis, silver closed above the 500 day EMA for the last two sessions – for the first time in over three years. However, it is quite extended above the 30, 50, and 200 day MAs so it might need to go sideways for a few days or simply take a quick (but bullish) plunge before going higher.
If anyone is nervous about the height of the MACD on that chart, take a look at the levels achieved in the past moves.
A little fork support comes in at 16.55ish tomorrow…
So Doc, you figure the doldrums are not going to happen now?
When is the doldrums supposed to start?
I thought it was summer, traders go on vacation was the reason for them?
Don, Doc was saying for a long time the 2016 doldrums would be a major low and the time to buy.
I know B.It wont be called a bulltrap if it ain’t a trap and yeah summer and fall were his targets for a lower low but hey like I said;everyone is entitled to his own opinion and I understand that opinions change.Having said that my outlook remains the same.We are going to see lower lows in precious metals.Deflation is a reset button to all assets including precious metals and my take the deflation that we are in is going to be followed by hyperinflation and that would be the time to invest in pms.
B from what I understand Doc is in the bullish camp regarding precious metals.I am not going to argue with that.Everyone is entitled to his own opinion.Time will tell who has got it right or wrong.
The PMs have had a nice run and some could run a little more. However, many are light years from the 200 day smas and even the 200 week smas. When that happens you often get as pullback to establish new trading ranges for awhile. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens. If it does happen, it’ll be a time for those that missed the PM stock rally to take some positions and for those who bought on the way up to purchase a little more when the stocks fall back to support. This will be the time that tests men’s and investors’ souls. Then when the stocks start their next run higher and break out over their recent highs in the future, move in hard for your next tranche of coins.
DOC
Avino Silver and Gold (ASM, ) just broke the 200 week SMA (I think?). Take a look !
Brian
Brian, I’m not a doctor, but I can confirm for you that yes Avino Silver and Gold just broke above it’s 200 week SMA which was at $1.38. Today’s close was $1.47. 😉
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASM&p=W&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52302392949
Copper at resistance:
JAG closed the day precisely at its upper weekly Bollinger band. The interesting thing is that the closing price was .377 and not .375 or .38 (trivia: 377 is also a Fibonacci number). Unlike the AMEX or OTC, the TSX and TSX-V deal in increments of .005 (half a cent) with stocks that trade below 50 cents.
I don’t who can place such an order besides a market maker but it seems like someone is defending the BB.
That works for me 😉
After looking at it again, that is a bearish reversal candle though. Also the Slow Stochastics look like they are crossing in a bearish manner. As much as I’d like to see JAG go up, I think in the short term it is going down. Actually I may trim tomorrow and add when it pulls back some.
If you sell, I’ll be there to buy. 😉
Those are weekly candles so we don’t have the final close until Friday. As for the Slow STO, it can become embedded or meander sideways above 80 while the price continues higher.
Here’s an example:
Yes, I agree that the Slow Stochastics can meander sideways, but with the candles that are forming with the wick at the top and the candle towards the bottom like an upside down candle, it is a more bearish combination at present. It just wouldn’t surprise me to see either stock sell off next week. It will really depend on Thu & Fri action as you mentioned. If they hover or dip it won’t be a good weekly candle, but if they can push that candle up longer with a shorter wick, it would be more positive.
upside down “hammer” not upside down “candle.”
The one in JAG looks more bearish than the one in Impact though…… so far…… like you mentioned, the week isn’t over yet either.
Reading a weekly candle on Wednesday is like reading a daily one at noon. They’re incomplete. Above 80 and the STOs are good.
Anyone who sold PGM on the first Slow STO cross missed roughly another 100% gain.
Matthew
Bookmark time !
One of my favourite quotes about not GETTING the context, or MISSING the point:
“Talking about music is like dancing to architecture”
(The quote is sometimes attributed to Laurie Anderson, but perhaps 100 years old)
Understood. I realize there are 2 more days to go for the weekly, and it was simply mentioned that, “it is a more bearish combination at present.” That is also why I said “It will really depend on Thu & Fri action as you mentioned.” Also it was 2 indicators the candle shape and the Slow Stochastics being over-bought, but it could just meander sideways so I’ll wait to see what develops.
When I see a long wick with the candle at the very base, it often indicates a bearish reversal. Obviously, things can change and it can come back to parity as a Doji Candle, or it could spike up making a long bullish candle. Anything is possible. All I meant was that right now it looks bearish and so I was considering trimming a bit and buying back on the pullback. I’m an early trimmer, so you are correct that it is probably unwise until I see how the weekly candle turns out.
I’m happy to hold the stock for 2 more days to know one way or another, and think it is good advice. Your thoughts and insights are much appreciated.
I just looked at that PGM chart and see what you are talking about. I probably would have been tempted to trim there when the Slow Stochastics crossed and started weaving, and thus would have missed out on part of that next move higher.
That’s a good chart and a good lesson for the day. It is appreciated.
True enough, you have to watch how you read your candles depending on the chart you are using. As Matthew says the weekly is not complete mid week so there are assumptions baked into the reading if you want to use that information when its still half cooked and that means making a judgement call on the trend in motion.
But then, almost all technicals require judgement calls on future probabilities and obviously not everyone can do it with success. Its why you can see two different guys come to opposite conclusions using the exact same chart.
It an education every day. Especially when there is more than one kind of pattern presented simultaneously with a conflicting pattern. Often it is the larger and more obvious pattern that fails to reward you.
We have just such a situation on the dollar index now.
When viewed from a Weekly chart it looks obvious as hell that there is a double top and most people will be quick to conclude a big decline is coming. Don’t be fooled though! Instead you need to focus on that large down spiking candle in August of 2015.
If you focus on that instead you can readily see that there is actually an arc or a rounded bottom in place indicating that the dollar will rise and break out to the upside.
Sorry…forgot the chart. Here it is.
Finviz.com futures US Dollar Index on a Weekly Chart – Look at the candle in August 2015 to see what I mean….
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1
Good points as well Farmer IC. The USD is actually down substantially today, and that is lifting commodities and the metals, so there are number of variables that can still affect things on the weekly today and tomorrow.
Actually the dollar is reversing back up now that I looked again and so it is now flat. I looked about 30 minutes ago and noted the weak dollar strong commodity set up, but now much of that is reversing. What a wild time.
The daily chart is holding up. Note the STOs…
This is true. I really hope that fork support causes it to bounce higher. I’ll wait and watch for that. Thanks Matthew for that chart. Is gives me a different vantage point that looks more bullish.
Yes the STOs are meandering sideways, but they are meandering in the overbought territory. I’m going to listen to you though, because as you say, these stocks can stay in overbought territory longer than previously witnessed with the new bull mkt rules.
I’m not saying that you shouldn’t (or should) sell, I’m just pointing out some details as food for thought. I would also not make the decision to sell based only on that indicator even though it would probably serve you well to do so most of the time (as JJ always pointed out).
If you believe in JAG’s turnaround success, then it is very cheap and I would worry about being able to get those shares back at a better price (unless, possibly, you’re not selling many). Yes, it could fall to about .30 if gold falls from here, but I wouldn’t want to bet on that right now. So I would rather endure such a drawdown than miss what could be a runaway train.
I appreciate the feedback and definitely think it is a good perspective and food for thought. Like I said, I’m going to wait and watch for more information before making a decision. To clarify, yes I was only going to scale back about 20 % and then potentially purchase the same number of shares back after the brief pullback at a lower price. I’m going to watch to see how things develop for now.
Look at the big picture,
It won’t matter if you buy now or at a prospective/possible lower eg. 30 if that even eventuates?
You can always dip the toes in now but keep a % in cash to hedge to the downside if/when necessary for protection.
Everyone seems fascinated with getting the exact bottom?
I dunno where that will be?
It still wouldn’t surprise me to see a plunge to sub $1000 for whatever reason?
But if so, I’ll hedge down & be no worse off in the bigger scheme of things in time to come.
Personally I’m more concerned about picking close & exiting towards thehe eventual top than the the bottom
Hit reply too early,
I got out too early last time.
I hope I can hold a little longer next time.
Cheers.
Lol…my Wife agreed with me 🙂
…..hope She was also talking about the gold price?
Cheers.
Funny Skeeta.
Dolly Varden is up 54% this week.
Dolly Varden is up over 30 % today…….
Dolly Varden Silver Corporation (DOLLF)
0.2153 Up 0.0503(30.48%) 3:59PM EDT
It is interesting that Hecla has loaned Dolly Varden money in 2015, that they own 14.3% of the shares, and that Dolly Varden has migrated into Hecla’s office building.
Just food for thought……
Significant shareholders of Dolly Varden Silver:
Hecla Mining Company 14.3%
Robert Gipson 13.6%
Ingalls & Snyder 13.6%
St. Thomas Cap Partners 3.8%
BTW it is up over 18% again today……
Dolly Varden Silver Corporation (DOLLF)
0.2550 Up 0.0397(18.44%) 12:20PM EDT
The Dolly Varden deposit is also in the same mineral belt as the Brucejack deposit that Pretium is developing and the Eskay Creek Mine that Barrick operates.
Dolly Varden Corporate Presentation (check out page 3 to see the proximity to those mines)
http://www.dollyvardensilver.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2015-12_AEMA.pdf
“Congratulations to those that did their D&D and bought Dolly Varden !”
(I will probably write this sentence many times over the next 3-5 years, with one item changed = the company name)
Let’s take a look at how things wrapped up today in the Silver companies:
3 MONTH BAR CHART OF THE — TOP 10 SILVER MINING STOCKS:
Silvercrest Metals – up 546.67 % !!!!!
Americas Silver Corp up 500 % !!!!!
Excellon Resources up 469.77 % !!!!
Santacruz Silver – up 455.56 % !!!!
Bear Creek Mining – up 445 % !!!!
Impact Silver up 416.67 % !!!!
Silvercorp up 354.55 % !!!
Canasil Resources up 340 % !!!
Alexco up 298.60 % !!!
Coeur d Alene 286.74 % !!!
3 month BAR chart below on the 2nd best movers in the SILVER Stocks:
Aurcana – up 267.95 % !!
First Majestic – up 262.98 % !!
Arizona Mining (AZ Mining) – up 259.32 % !!
Endeavour Silver – up 257.69 % !!
Hochschild Mining – up 236.59 % !!
Great Panther Silver – up 231.82 % !!
Minco Silver – up 186.57 % !
Levon Resources – up 162.50 % !
Fortuna Silver – up 160 % !
Mines Management – up 159.26 % !
3 month BAR chart below on the 3rd Tier of SILVER Stocks:
Pan American Silver – up 139.09 % !
Orex Minerals – up 136.84 % !
Bayhorse Silver – up 118.18 % !
Kootenay Silver – up 113.89 % !
Silver Standard Resources – up 112.63 % !
Dolly Varden Silver – up 100 % !
Avino Silver & Gold – up 96 %
Tahoe Resources – up 94.52%
Silver Wheaton – up 81.60 %
Fresnillo – up 76.26 %
Wildcard 3 month Bar Chart on some of the more speculative Silver Stocks. I didn’t have them in the other 3 charts, but this is a fun mixed bag of companies to keep an eye on:
Golden Minerals – up 304 % !!!
Silver Bull Resources – up 300 % !!!
Silver Range Resources – up 285.71 % !!
Defiance Silver – up 225 % !!
Aura Silver – up 200 % !!
Southern Silver Exploration – up 171.43 % !
Canarc Resources – up 150 % !
Mirasol Resources – up 81.71 %
Trevali Resources – up 44 %
Apogee Silver – up 33.33 %
“If you cannot own all of them, own some of them”
(I will probably write this sentence many times over the next 3-5 years)
+3-5!
Rob McEwen: No debt and looking for deals
Wed, Apr 20, 2016 – 11:50 AM
“McEwen Mining’s Rob McEwen expects to produce the equivalent of 144,000 ounces of gold this year. The company’s stock is up more than 130% in 2016 and McEwen says he’s open to using shares to help pay for an acquisition.”
thanks for the note……..
thanks for all your time & effort excelsior, much appreciated! dwj
Thanks dw jones. It’s a lot of work but I have fun looking at the Silver sector.
Here is a 10 minute Ted Cruz speech:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6V0DzlXoU0U
Can you imagine Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton speaking with such eloquence?
I cannot.
The tongue is a hard tool to control
Still looks like a bull trap to me…
Wow, silver spiked and the GSR dropped to as low as 71.4…
http://www.chartseeker.com/images/XAUXAG-1HR-LG.png?964590359
I noticed that………
Silver LOOKING good again today………..back up over $17….
HONG KONG……SGE………..took the price up immediately
TLT priced in gold (real money) is heading lower.
A few of the agricultural commodities are behaving just like silver and gold. They have had very sharp rises recently. After checking their weekly charts though we can see there is no breakout on the long term trends yet.
Beans, wheat and corn are three examples.
This suggests to me that a large part of the commodity sector is going to top out together quite soon. Is this a warning that the dollar is about to rise? I happen to think so.
But there is another element at play. With stocks near their record peak and the VIX at a record low it could be we are setting up for a nasty stock market correction in the second week if May that takes everything down together as the USD rises.
At this time it is speculation on my part but a cursory review of currencies, commodities and materials such as copper, gold and silver suggests we are heading into a period of coincident reversals that we should start to monitor closely during the next few weeks.
Don’t focus purely on precious metals as that is just a small part of the story. The other thing is that the 30 year is currently in decline. Should markets sell off it will rise with the dollar. I would watch it very carefully for a reversal higher when it hits 157.50 or thereabouts as that might be our timing signal for when a general equities market correction comes.
The soft commodities have been on the move lately. The whole commodity complex has benefited from the weaker dollar.
OH my………another spike up in silver……..
Near the top of the page, I said: “The action this afternoon looks like no more than a shakeout so far, to me.”
I guess so! Now let’s see if the miners act the way I want them too.
Jerry, you are looking at a near vertical move. While those can reward over short time frames you had best beware because all such moves end the same way with a sharp retracement. Unless its different this time of course!.
Silver has a long way to go……….no excitement till well over $45….there will be overhead resistance all the way up.
lost .30 cent…..while I was typing……
oops………..make that .70 cent………………JPM must be getting the shakes…..
Under $17……….like I said yesterday……….$17 is a lot more noticeable , than $16.99, …….this reminds me of pricing for retail jewish style……..
Zerohedge…………..SOMEONE DUMPS $2BILLION in the GOLD MARKET……..
That’s funny because my portfolio is still up over 4%…
HUI ….looking good
The game has changed to the miners …….most do not even understand what is going on..
It’s over Jerry. That is the end of the run (don’t buy any more silver now is my best advice to you).
I can now tell you with absolutely 100% percent certainty and without any equivocation whatsoever that silver has just seen its final move up. Today is a day to take your profits because the next moves in the coming weeks will be retracements and declines off that parabolic high.
So I am calling it right here and right now.
You just saw silver top in real time on April 21 2016 and it is going to be a long time before you see that price again. Many months at a minimum and perhaps not again until 2017 if my forecast of a full retrace to new lows bears fruit.
You’re right, Jerry, most do not understand what is going on.
I BET WE see it before FRIDAY…………..Silver is going EAST….the Chinese love the stuff. …NEW SGE is in action.
oops…………..back over $17 as I am typing……..
Looks like a nice candle will develop on gold today too. Its time to get out in my opinion.
So BIrdman, are you shorting?
Of course!
NATIONAL DEBT…………..$19.22TRILLION…………New Obama plan,…he needs to go on more vacations before leaving office………..that way, the new debt will be $20Trill before end of year with his new plan in action. With a new face on the $20 bill, this will remind us of all his stewardship while in public office. CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN.
WOW, Battle Royale in the markets this morning!
birdman gold has some further room to the upside imho.1277-1280 is the level that I am watching.GL buddy.
Up and down is OK within the ranges. My bet here will run for the next few weeks and may not be in my favour much of that time but the principle I am following is correct. I will add as the opportunity arises.
Yeah at this stage the best strategy in your case is to average down.You are on the money birdman.Stay the course and you will be rewarded handsomely.I am still waiting to jump in birdman.It is very tempting at these levels but I better stick to my strategy.
Indeed I am on the money Don Corleone. BANG on the money!
I predicted this move in silver four months back with deadly accuracy. I might have done better by taking my own advice of back then and holding longer but my focus was gold and it has worked out ok anyway.
If you are curious you can read that old post where I called for silver to rise to the 17 dollar range. It was a preposterous call at the time because silver was then trading sub 14.00 dollars. I did not attempt to define exactly how much above 17 dollars it would go at that time but the pattern has played out magnificently.
There are one or two people on this site who disparage my calls frequently. They would like to portray me as some hack who just gets lucky from time to time. The fact is however I have been the most accurate gold and silver forecaster on the Ker Report for the past four years, bar none.
It is why i don’t take any one else’s advice.
Here is the post I left December 15th 2015. Judge it for yourself. As far as I know I was the ONLY person in the entire gold forecasting community who picked up on both the pattern and the price target. Both were correct and of course that gives me substantial confidence that the top is now in and we can safely short both gold and silver.
—————————————–
On December 15, 2015 at 11:50 pm,
Birdman says:
Moving on to another subject….
Last week I wrote a post on my projections for precious metals after being asked and I provided an answer based on a pattern I am watching. What that pattern is that is developing is called a “bottom megaphone” and generally these can be reliable once confirmed.
The pattern appears at the bottom of a long period of declines where the second bounce is higher than the first bounce off what appears to be a price bottom. This is then followed by a third and final thrust higher which can take prices substantially higher depending on the magnitude of the megaphone.
For example, an hourly chart Megaphone is not as important as one seen on a daily or weekly chart so while significant it would not encourage one to take positions for too long a stretch. The bigger the pattern the better the outcome.
Anyway, Gary had discussed the fact that gold and silver were both in right-translation for the first time since forever and he felt that was significant, perhaps even telling us a final bottom had arrived. At the time I disagreed due to my own charting and in fact both metals tumbled hard soon afterwards (which was happily very rewarding as I caught both the decline and the bounce back).
Now on the first point, Gary was correct about noting the significance of that right-translation but what he did not see was that what was actually in formation was the megaphone which I just mentioned.
So off a bottom there will be three distinct rises and each will be longer than the one before it. I want to post the pattern for everyone here to judge this for themselves and then ask you to go and look at silver on a daily chart for a comparison (also linked in my next post).
Most here will probably agree this looks like a positive set up for silver.
If I am correct in this assessment then gold silver and the miners GDX and GDXJ are set for an substantial move up that should begin during the next few weeks. An important note though; The chart pattern is not actually confirmed until it breaks ABOVE the rising trend line so you would not bet the house on this nor any other prediction a chart reader sees.
So for silver (and for the sake of argument) that would be something in the 17 dollar range exceeding the upper boundary of the rising trend channel as drawn off the prior peaks seen in August and November.
The leg up should begin fairly soon based on the current consolidation pattern. Here is a technical analysis brief on the “Bottom Megaphone pattern” so everyone here gets a clear idea of what I am referring too.
After checking silver it will be worth your time to also check GDX and GDXJ for confirmations of this idea. While similar patterns exist in those they are less perfect and by that I mean that price did not extend lower but rather hit a base and consolidated. I don’t believe this is a hindrance though as miners have already been heavily oversold.
Megaphone Bottom Pattern (rare but fairly reliable pattern so keep your eyes on it)
https://www.share.com/experienced-investors/technical-analysis/megaphone-bottom/
Dear Al Korelin….maybe a shout out to Birdman is in line. You promised me a feather in my cap if my crazy bet on metals came true. Well I picked off both gold at 1220 and silver at 17 bucks which is a whole lot better than any of the blithering promoter’s and one trick pony’s can do. And I did it with a four month lead time.
Top that!!!!!
Re: “So for silver (and for the sake of argument) that would be something in the 17 dollar range exceeding the upper boundary of the rising trend channel as drawn off the prior peaks seen in August and November.”
Sorry Bird, there’s nothing there to top. Nothing about that comment contains a useful call. You did not say that 17 was your target. In addition, you said the 17 dollar “range” would EXCEED “the upper boundary of the rising trend channel as drawn off the prior peaks seen in August and November.” It has , in fact, not even come close to reaching that line, let alone exceeding it. See for yourself:
Doesn’t the blithering no-trick pony ever tire of bullshitting everyone?
Are you joking?!!!!
The upper trend line is almost perfect. That call was superb and was far better than ANYTHING I have ever seen from you. Secondly the pattern worked to perfection. Third….it was indeed my call because I wrote it. Read it again you twit. My forecast was for 17 dollars (range) on silver and in a post dated December 4th I also called for gold to hit 1220.
What is your problem anyway?
NOBODY else made such a call. Not one single person here and that includes you. Really, you have gotten to be such a pig headed arse over your own inability to predict anything I don’t know why I bother with twits like you anymore.
Give a little credit where its due.
Calls don’t start with “So for silver (and for the sake of argument) that would be…”
Secondly, it did not even reach the level that you claimed it went through AND you are assuming that 17 is indeed a top. It is more than a little early to come to that conclusion.
Pathetic Matthew. Is that the best you can do?
Last time I heard you make any prediction it was for 1550 gold. That was two years ago and we are still waiting. I hit my target at least even if the number was exceeded by a few cents.
And yes, this run is finished. I GUARANTEE IT.
And just so everybody here knows what a fool you are, you actually stated a few days ago that I never even posted on this subject. You said I never made any call at all. At that point I posted a copy and you shut up. This latest incarnation is just pathetic.
You are a jealous small man.
You’re delusional, Bird. You have completely FAILED at every major low while I NAILED them. Who cares about predictions when you don’t even know when to buy?
Again, you have been BEARISH at every major low, that’s a FACT. Do you have that through your thick skull yet?
You have an amazing ability to ignore all of your failures!
zerohedge…………SOMEONE DUMPS $2BILLION in gold………(earlier post)
Btw I have done some charting yesterday on the eur/usd and I came to the conclusion that the fed is gonna raise rates next june.In next weeks’ meeting fed speech is gonna be hawkish imho.
TRUMP blames change on Tubman $20 bill as political correctness…………
I said that yesterday………..lol
Guys you can talk about the metal all you want but they have really moved very litlle but those who don’t understand what type of market it is sold out on this rally way back.
Mathew had it right. Check out MSV were I pluged out 50,000 shares at .80 siltill have 10k. Had a little cry in in my tub into my wine. I hold many still that seem to be consolidating. You wont get a major sale on some of these for sometime and you may be buying in higher. This is the first rally no one is asking should I buy gold. Thats the aveage Joes I know. When they ask I will sell. Almost everyone missed out on the greater gains.
You’re right Bill. I’m not seeing any sign of dumb money involvement in the sector yet let alone any “irrational exuberance.” No wonder even the experts are blowing it.
Hi Mathew
I think so. Correction is on now and well needed.
We shake see how deep.
Things are acting well in the face on the Metal decline EOD.
Some of mine are in the plus…
I agree and same here. Not real scary stuff…
Case in point forget the metal what are the equities telling us. Like SSO chugging along. I threw the farm at it. I wont sell till I see an end to the bull???
Excelsior, do you know anything about AGXMF?