Chris and Doc with a comprehensive market wrap
Chris Temple and Doc provides their insights on a number of markets. There were no huge moves today but we did see some reversals from the morning trading session.
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I agree with you LEWIS…………SILVER HOLDING $17……..
FRIDAY……..let’s see if anyone wants to go short over the weekend.
FRIDAY……………GSR……………..72……. Silver……….$17.22
Don’t get excited Jerry. This is standard operating procedure for the market Vampires who will take silver back up and draw in plenty more pretty faces and naive buyers before the close today.
But Monday metals will get murdered.
That is what I am waiting for……….buy low, sell high………… 🙂
You are either in the caboose or the engine………… 🙂
What did get murdered today was gold. We have seen a 40 dollar move down in two sessions now and it is still falling. Right now gold is leading silver so I would not hold out too much hope for next week.
Just a little knife fight at $17 for silver….
Bird, gold (using GLD) fell 1.27% today while silver (SLV) fell just .31%. Stated another way, risky, speculative silver went up .98% versus gold today. It is a positive thing for those who are bullish the sector when silver outperforms gold. It is telling you that we are still in a “risk-on” environment.
So we could get a downturn in the oil companies and the base metal miners in the short-term but, with any USD rally perhaps being short-lived, those resource companies might be good buys?
Or am I just hearing what I want to hear?
🙂
I got that after a few years of marriage Bob. I am sure its a real condition.
I give you the following cult-like thread on dating and marriage (It evolved over time):
‘Deluded Old Scrapper Birds On Dating Sites”
Resilience and genuine interest? That’s kind of funny Al. The move in metals and miners has been almost vertical and that is a big, fat warning, not a positive sign going forward. Too far too fast.
The sector would have been much better served by a more gradual rise but instead we got a speculative flurry combined with a huge dose of shot covering. Those are not buy and hold investors as a rule but rather the usual sharks out for an easy meal.
The shorts will be back soon enough.
In the meantime and despite the rise in the mining indexes today we still do NOT have a break out to the upside. Its close but we are not there yet. And unless we see buyers push metals over the top then this baby is going down.
Not sure about your technicals either Doc but they sure don’t align with mine on this topic. We are entirely at odds with one another this time (not saying you are wrong….we just don’t agree on what is happening here).
Funny is can drop like a rock, but, can not act like a rocket………… 🙂
Well silver did go up like a rocket. That is what has everyone so transfixed. They are like witnesses to a traffic accident on an icy road and cannot look away even as signs of a fully loaded 18 wheeler coming at high speed into the dangerous fray looms just down the road.
good one……… 🙂 … funny
The rocket landed in the South China sea, and Kim Wong DU…….cut off the pay load… 🙂
I believe there will be an attack on silver and gold tomorrow. However, I do not know how much physical metal the attackers on the COMEX are prepared to expend.
It is a balance between length of life of COMEX vs profit. If they expend too much metal, too quickly, the COMEX will default sooner; if they don’t knock the prices down, they can’t minimize losses/maximize profits.
Only the manipulators know the exact quantities of available physical and exact locations and quantities of stops.
CFS, mr moriarty on Apr 19 missive on His 321 gold says there’s no chance of a CRIMEX default because ultimately the ESF/Fed has a printing press full of Dollars standing ready to make ALL quite well!
I defined a COMEX default as cash settlement in lieu of physical deliver.
Mr Moriaty’s is technically correct, in that the COMEX rules allow for cash settlement, and thus default is technically impossible unless the bank’s go belly-up. ( supposedly the banks are too big to fail.)
If that’s how you define a “default,” CFS, then I’d have lost count by now about how many times there have been defaults. For years, the rules have always allowed for in-kind settlements. One of the reasons I’ve never been worked up about all this physical vs. paper claptrap.
Mr. T Emile,
I am unaware of anyone wishing to take physical metal delivery from the COMEX BEING FORCED to accept cash.
So please enlighten me by citing just one example.
My stupid IPad!
Mr. TEMPLE, PLEASE CITE ON EXAMPLE IN THE LITERATURE/news reports, etc. of anyone being denied physical metal from the COMEX and being FORCED TO ACCEPT A CASH SETTLEMENT INSTEAD.
Typing too fast…..an example or one example
Birdman, I think you’re right. No breakout past Jan. high last year.
That too Chris. And after yesterdays action the odds of it happening are pretty slim. Nor was silver able to overtake the peak from last May 2015. Note too that the candles on silver and gold did hold and were not filled after hours.
We now have clear signals to exit both metals and miners off their peaks. Those signals are conclusive by my readings. Honestly, it does not get any easier than this from a technical set-up so I don’t know why anybody serious about trading would be bothered by it because it just means we all get another chance down the road to play the upside one more time.
If we would think about it in those terms we can all be happier traders.
For me, I will take whatever profit metals will offer, whether up or down.
A stab in the dark here…Early next week before the Fed crap…Gold , Silver , Oil , UP , Dollar , S&P down.
Turn the lights on………….and guess again……….. 🙂
By month end anyway Tony. May could well open with declines in all the major stock markets and it is unlikely that gold miners will weather the storm as profit centers are usually the first to get the heave-ho.
And that makes perfect sense.
Who would not protect their gains first in the event of a market correction? Its just human nature to sell what is up and to hold that which is down until it recovers at a later date.
Meanwhile over in Euroland the Eurostoxx and Dax are telling us in unquestionable terms that the direction for global stock markets remains in the direction of a correction.
Both those indices (which are much easier to read because interventions have taken a different course over there) are clearly posting lower lows and lower highs. I would encourage readers here to take their cues from the performance of markets on the other side of the Atlantic when attempting to judge what is coming for US indices.
As an aside, I am a market bull once the declines come and go. There is just no other place to park money given the hell we are heading in to.
Chris, Doc,
I rate you both as most knowledgeable analysts. (In different ways, of course.)
I am confused concerning the dollar.
It is weighted mostly against the Euro. Plus a bit of JPY, GBP etc.
The Euro, I believe, should be much weaker than the dollar. The economy is poor throughout Much of Europe, as far as I can tell.
( it is scary to me, as I travel, seeing gangs of youths hanging about,)
I’ve never seen so many.
This would seem to indicate that the dollar should go up.
On the other hand, I believe China is the most economically productive country in the world. No mater where you travel, many things are “made in China”
I also realize that China is the largest holder of US dollars and also has a currency which is essentially pegged to the dollar.
This implies to me that China will not allow the dollar to rise or go down, until it has used its dollars.
It won’t allow the dollar to go down, because that would destroy its store of worth in US treasuries.
But it can’t allow it to go up, because that would reduce its exports, on which its economy and employment levels depend.
Riddle this, O Cognisenti. Have I erred in my analysis?
And with those words, CFS disappeared into a cloud of logic.
Euro probably should be lower, yes — but for the time being, most believe the euro zone will stay in tact. As I also mentioned recently, the latest Q.E. move by Draghi was net-positive in most traders’ eyes as it reduced the risk of a banking default, and thus of an overall implosion in the euro area. I still think it’s doomed; and that eventually the euro crumbles.. But for now, the above — and, for now, the perception of a more dovish Fed — has taken some of the steam out of the $ vs. the euro.
Your China comments, though,I question. Yes, the country is prolific economically; but at the expense of building a world-beating mountain of debt. The weakness in the yuan has not nearly gone far enough IMO. There has been massive capital flight out of the country, and the economy/debt structure is teetering. Fortunately for them longer-term, the country has been converting some of its dollar (and other) assets into hard assets all around the world; and I suspect they’ll continue to do so as they find opportunities. And I also agree that all the garbage of some promoters calling for an “attack” on the dollar/Treasuries by China is absurd for exactly the reason you give.
More interesting copper-fork action:
Fork candles?
Fork handles?
Sounds like a two Ronnies sketch!
Yep.
Interesting comments here on emerging markets and USD. Christine Hughes is a gem…
Tech stocks are in trouble. Microsoft falling 5.2% in after market. Netflix fell around 13%. IBM hit a few days ago. Apple has been falling quite hard. Tech sector could start the eventual breakdown of the general market.
Institutional selling. Smart money is making a fast get away and we might be advised to pay attention to what they are doing. There is an assumption that such declines are just the usual bag of tricks to confuse the retail crowd.
On that logic we should all be buyers and at other times I might agree. But lets just look at where the indices are now and wonder if this is not genuine selling to preserve gains in anticipation of a May drop.
Like I keep saying…..sell in May and go away may be more applicable this year than it has been for a very long time. Everyone here who thinks that stock markets are going to keep climbing all through the soft season even as they approach all time highs please put up your hands.
Now take those hands and reach for your dunce caps. Put it on. You earned it.
Ex,
The volume on Pretium, PVG,appears to me to be indicating a move upward, when combined with chart data.
Pretium is one of my bigger gold holdings.
Pretium and Seabridge are two of the most visible development and opitionality plays out there. I’ve been a shareholder of Pretium in the past, and have been impressed with it’s move all year. Their construction at the Brucejack project seems to be moving along as planned and I believe they are targeting production in mid 2017.
Here’s a nice article Zacks just put out.
_________________________________________________________________________
Pretium Resources (PVG): Strong Industry, Solid Earnings Estimate Revisions
April 21, 2016 – By Zacks Equity Research
Oats wheat, corn and beans all posted termination candles yesterday. So did coffee, copper, platinum and palladium along with our precious metals. Anybody who cannot see that or keeps pounding bull drums on commodities when the next direction is down, is just lying to themselves and lying to others here.
Lots of people seem to be getting exicted about sugar but when you google for news of sugar harvests the world seems awash with it.
The dollar is continuing its rise and the Yen is falling just as I have been warning. Both those trends will take the bloom of gold and silver should they continue next week. None of this should come as a surprise. Everything is connected.
But couldn’t money then move back into conventionals? Or do you just envisage a big correction, or crash, across all the markets?
Just wondering whether the FCXs, Anglo Americans, Glencores, etc, etc, are all about to give up their massive gains – many of them are uup 300% since January. What about biotechs? What about techs? All going down? Or could money move out of gold and silver into all of these?
(Answers on a postcard please in not less than 1,000 words 🙂
Don’t make me laugh. Just yesterday CFS was demanding that I offer a better explanation for why I see things as I do. But when I write those long posts NOBODY ever responds nor do the hosts here ever bother to pick up on the ideas. If anything they attempt to minimize the points without addressing the evidence offered.
So why waste my time?
Nonetheless I continue to be correct in the assessment most days. I am batting better that 85% and that’s all that really counts for me. Almost nobody pulls those kind of numbers. Cripes, the Hedge funds don’t hold a candle to me and have not for several years.
Maybe the Angels just love me better!
But anyway, getting out of the way of my own ego for a moment 🙂 I do believe we will see a correction in stock markets before we take off higher. May is the month. The big players can’t make a buck the way things stand and basically they need a decline to shine.
And so we shall have one.
Those miners meanwhile, both big and small will see a setback in share prices because the underlying metals they mine will be falling as the dollar rises. Not much more to it than that really. This rally has been truly fantastic but nothing goes up in a straight line forever and so a retrace is both expected and assured.
Why would we doubt that? All markets breathe in and out. Once we just accept that its a whole lot easier to play them so we won’t cry when the TCKS and FCX’s and Glencore’s fall back to prior levels.
Its just part of how the cycles and market function. Nobody has missed anything yet.
I can’t speak for others Birdman but I certainly read your long posts. Admitteldy, often I have to go and put the kettle on first and make myself a cuppa 🙂 but I do read them with interest.
Yep, I think this is all being played by the banks – going after a beaten down sector and pumping it up, then shorting it down, pumping it up again.
The banks have made a killing on the Glencores, FCXs, etc, and it would not surprise me if they now make a killing crushing them by shorting them down. Then, once everyone thinks that they will go lower, there will be an unexpected unexplained surge in them again.
Biotech is currently beaten down and it would not surprise me to see a lot of money suddenly move into that sector for the summer. Just have to wait and see whether you will have your crash in the convention stocks first.
‘Nobody has missed anything yet.’ – interesting phrase.
One more correction before the bull run begins in earnest?
For sure. I am very optimistic on that front. What I can’t tell you is how long this will take to iron itself out so I am just playing it by ear right now. There is a distinct possibility gold and silver retrace all the way back to their lows.
Im still reading your posts Bird. Sometimes I dont comment because your insight is beyond my understanding really. You see deeper than I do. What can I say?
Anyway, what Im seeing this morning is gold moving lower, the shares seem to be holding on small volume.
Whats that supposed to tell you? Mybe gold goes down but shares because thy have been so beaten down dont want o go much lower?
Also, I asked if anyone sa a head and shoulders yesterday?day before? on the 15min chart. Those supposed to fortell a direction change no?
Also, see Minco? The board here and comentators said “no way stay away”
For this move, the kitco list was thy wy o go, spread it aound, ya never no which ones moving the most.
1 more thing, Bob M is mentioning a pullback, he ha never seen such an exaggerated move as this one since Jan in metals.
Keep posting, and quit the bs about nobody reads your posts.
I told you long ago, more than you no appreciate them.
My apologies bb. I did mention you yesterday actually.
?? I no you mentioned me. Whats an apology required for??
Can you comment on what I asked?
Gold going lower, shares having a hard time moving lower, and did you see that head and shoulders on the 15min chart?
That looked like the exact turn to me, can you say if thats what it was foretelling?
I don’t use the 15 minute charts bb. So I had no comment on it. Mostly I am watching the hourly, daily and monthly for trends. Abut shares….yes they will be resistant in this environment of excessive bullishness. Even gold has hardly responded to the the Yen dropping but we do know it will follow shortly. Basically, metals must start to decline before shares will start to sell off. But once they move they can come down like a rock so get ready since it usually happens fast.
Thats actually kinda what I figured, so thanks for the confirmation.
We shall see what they do then.
You no Im not a chart guy, but I look at everything from 1 sec to monthly.
I have found the 1 sec,1 min can inform of a move before the heard, if ya think trading might be profitable.
That head and shoulders I was asking about, didnt show up anywhere else that I saw at the time. Maybe it did and I missed it tho.
Darn. I’ve been using the Bird as a contrary indicator.
But I sold my DBA holding yesterday. Did I make a mistake?
You will go broke that way but good luck anyway buddy.
DBA vs. USAG: Comparing Agriculture ETFs
By Steven Nickolas
Here is a snapshot of recent articles in the gold and silver space from the usual suspects that are about as bullish as they usually get. Nobody sees downside.
Almost all of them extol the virtues of precious metals with one rationalization ofr another and collectively they are misleading (in my opinion) as to the next direction for metals.
I really don’t know what these guys are getting out of taking such a one-sided view point but they all seem to share the same sentiment. Readers should be careful following the advice of some of these guys because what they are now saying in essence is to buy at the top of this cycle.
But then again, they always exhort others to buy come rain or shine. Just know what you are dealing with and use your own heads everyone because the commentaries listed below can be hazardous to your economic health at this time.
Both gold and silver have now peaked out from a technical perspective and a sell off could come at any time now. The authors below are not objective as I see it. It is just promotion after promotion and while some of them may genuinely believe in their own ideas (not all is metals propaganda) I would advise caution because the Commercials are betting very strongly against them and that suggests downside now looms over the metals markets.
———————————————————
Gold and Silver are on the Cusp of a Massive Rally! — Chris Vermeulen
http://howestreet.com/2016/04/gold-and-silver-are-on-the-cusp-of-a-massive-rally/
Worldwide Precious Metals Bull Market! — Andrew Hoffman
financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2016/04/andrew-hoffman-worldwide-precious-metals-bull-market/
Are Stars Aligned for Gold Revaluation — Chris Powell
gata.org/node/16400
China Yuan Gold Fix Update + Why Silver Could Hit $28/oz By December 04/20/16 ~~ Tom Cloud
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du-t1_6Yuvg
Gold & Silver Bullish as Silver Breaks Out to Highest Level Since May 2015!
King World News — Peter Boockvar
The Precious Metal Bull Market is Finally Back! —
MileFranklin.com — Andrew Hoffman
Silver: Not Time to Worry
By Gary Christenson at Deviant Investor
Gold Price Set To Push Higher As Inflation Picks Up – RBC
Mark O’Byrne at GoldCore.com
Silver’s Bull Market Has So Much More to Give, 5 Charts Show
Eddie Van Der Walt and Luzi-Ann Javier at Bloomberg.com
Gold, Silver and the End of the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History
David Kranzler at Investment Research Dynamics
Junior Gold Stocks are Leveraged & Spring-Loaded
Nick Hodge at Outsider Club
Silver & Gold Surge as Dollar Falls: A Trend Which Will Continue
Gregory Mannarino at Traderschoice.net
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish on Silver
Mining.com
Silver Warming Up Nicely
Silverseek.com
Gold Shines, Silver Breaks Out, as China Starts Gold Fix and Deutsche Bank Admits Manipulation
Jeff Berwick at Dollar Vigilante
How “Poor Man’s Gold” Could Make You Rich this Year
Greg Guenthner at Daily Reckoning
Ron Paul: Buy Silver!
CNBC video
Silver Shines as Goldman Sachs Dims
Peter Schiff Radio
Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming?
Steve St. Angelo at SRSRocco Report
Precious Metals Bull Snorts As Silver Roars to the Upside – GIGANTIC Third Phase of PM Bull Is Underway
Silverdoctors.com
“We Are Now in the Next Great Gold Rush” | McAlvany Commentary 2016
Jim Deeds at McAlvany Financial
Silver is Off to the Races Again
David Kranzler at Investment Research Dynamics
China’s Shanghai Exchange Sends Price of Silver Soaring & Gold Surging
King World News
Silver Breaks Out Amidst Global Economic Chaos – Andy Hoffman
SGTreport.com
And on and on and on……..the bulls are relentless. and they are all wrong right now.
That’s an interesting snapshot of the Silver articles peculating and circulating out there.
Here’s one more to add to the heap…… (With so much hype around Silver now, that I’ve been further trimming my positions down). The time to buy the Silver stocks was in late December through January. [that is when it was contrarian to do so…..now everyone and their neighbor is jumping on board so it is getting a bit frothy in Silver]
__________________________________________________________________________
Silver-Mining Stocks Shine Brightest; Newmont Jumps After Earnings Beat
Friday April 22, 2016
Collectively, the biggest gainers for the week were silver companies, as the rise in silver prices outpaced gold. Bear Creek Mining Corp. (TSXV: BCM) jumped 69 cents, or 37%. Early in the week, the company took the step of issuing a news release saying there “are no material corporate developments and the company is not aware of any undisclosed material developments” to affect its stock price.
Excellon Resources (TSX: EXN) jumped 29 cents, or 30%, during a week in which the company said first-quarter production was up from the fourth. “In late February, we accessed the Rodilla Manto, approximately seven months ahead of schedule as we encountered mineralization outside of the Platosa resource block model and dry mining conditions facilitated rapid development,” says Brendan Cahill, president and chief executive officer.
Numerous other silver producers also had heady gains. Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE: EXK) climbed 88 cents, or 29%. Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (NYSE MKT: ASM) added 32 cents, or 26%. Great Panther Silver Ltd. (NYSE MKT: GPL) jumped 28 cents, or 24%. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSX: SVM) climbed 51 cents, or 22%. Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL) – which last week reported record silver-equivalent output in the first quarter — jumped 58 cents, or 18%. And the list goes on.
Absolutely Shad. Absolutely I agree 100% this is the time to get out. Yesterday I declared without equivocation or doubt that the silver run had ended. I am certain I picked it off on the EXACT day once more.
So I get another big feather in my cap. My record on metals calls is intact as we shall see that silver cannot stage any recovery until it has gone through a retracement on the charts.
Good for you for slimming down on the miners. It never hurt to take a profit.
COTs will be interesting today – Friday – to see if the commercials have increased.
Ha! Yeah, why would they decrease when the kill is so close. I will be SHOCKED if they have relented now. It would make no damned sense at all. We need the small specs, hedge funds and retail to all be on the long side. How else will we make money?
Yen is on the verge of breaking below three prior peaks. Look out below gold bugs!
forget gold………..silver is the play……………
Jerry, both metals travel the same road together even if they don’t move in perfect synchronization. Yen has now busted those peaks. A very ominous sign for precious metals.
Now down 144 points and still falling as technical stops are being triggered. We will be hitting Yen/USD .90 or lower today if this keeps up. Its already fallen below its outside bottom channel so a quick recovery is not in the cards anymore.
Annnnnnnnd gold has been pummeled and bloodied senseless (just as expected) after falling more than 20 dollars after the morning bell. We can’t say we did not see that coming!
Oh wait….yeah that’s right, most people did NOT see that coming.
Because they can’t read a chart.
Why Own Silver? Stick With Gold Says Geologist
Apr 20, 2016 – Guest(s): Brent Cook
Although silver has stolen gold’s thunder this week, managing to hit an 11-month high Wednesday, one famed geologist says he’s sticking with the yellow metal. ‘To me, silver is the poor man’s gold, and why would you want to own the second best,’ Brent Cook, editor of popular newsletter Exploration Insights, told Kitco News. ‘I think gold’s moving higher.’
Then again, Brent probably missed the 200-500% gains in the smaller Silver stocks coming out of mid-January, so he could have been much richer investing in “poor man’s gold,” but never mind that. 🙂
Personally I think the metals are about to take a rest so I’ve scaled back. If some of the steam comes out of these smaller Silver and Gold stocks, I’ll be back in buying.
When Brent……is able to retire and does not have to write an article on prospecting, then we will know he is 100% correct….., but, we know the best GURU is only 61%….
Bingo.
Again, I really do like Brent, and have learned a great deal from him on potential roadblocks to watch for in permitting, infrastructure, jurisdiction, exploration gimmicks, and knowing when a deposit is not economic. So I’m a fan of Brent, but his comments lately when addressing the Precious Metals sector have been rather polarizing, near-sighted, and it sounds like he is sour because he missed the bigger gains in Silver over Gold.
Having said that, I’ve thrown a few jabs at him on here lately because of some of his comments about Silver stock investors and people that would attend the Silver Summit as being “wingnuts” and kooky. He said in that Kitco video interview at PDAC at the bar that Gold investors were more sophisticated and professional.
Now in that more recent Kitco video he is saying things like ‘To me, silver is the poor man’s gold, and why would you want to own the second best?’
I would wager that many of the Silver investors gains far surpassed the Gold investors gains, but many do invest in both (me included). What I have tried to show is that a huge number of the smaller Silver Stocks were up 200-500% in the 3 months since the Jan 19th bottom in miners. Investors that just invested in GDX or GDXJ or even SIL were not up anywhere close to those returns. As someone that invests and believe in the Silver miners regularly, I’d view myself as a professional and sophisticated investor, but I do live in TN so I’m probably a drooling backwoods moron in comparison to the very sophisticated “Gold Only” investors 🙂
Many of the smaller Silver companies he scoffs out just kicked the crap out his top recommendations, and the only reason they came out OK on some of their positions was because Joe at least identified the 3 good mid-tier Gold companies Claude, Lake Shore Gold, and Newmarket Gold. What is hilarious is we had already identified those companies back in 2014 & 2015 and were way ahead of their “amazing” calls here on the KER blog.
Anyway…..Silver has been on the move lately, and almost every site has been pumping out the Silver Articles and interviews the last 2 weeks. (That is my sign to keep trimming the winnings, because it’s getting frothy…..). The point is, that the time to be a serious investor in the silver miners was in late December and all through January, and the gains that were made dwarfed most of the other trades, and for me were only matched by the Lithium miners and a few Uranium and PGM companies over the last 3-6 months (which were also contrarian plays that nobody like or was discussing when we were here on KER).
As for Silver at present….. the trade has overshot things a bit to the upside, and while I’ve already faded out to a great extent, I’m still leaving a few small positions in place, just in case PMs do surprise people and keep on trucking…..
Gary Savage asked: “How in the world can one predict that gold will just trade sideways before the dollar even delivers its rally?”
——–
I don’t think he’s aware that the last 15% rise in the USD’s 2014 rally did not result in gold going lower.
If you want to know how the dollar is doing relative to other fiat fictions, then watch the USDX; but if you want to know how it is doing in real life, watch the gold price.
The world has it backwards, gold is the numeraire or unit of account, not the USD.
If you step back from the noise silver is still above 17 and gold is above 1250. After the day we have had that still has to be positive I would think!