What are the details behind the new Shanghai Gold fix?
We have Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report on the show to discuss the significance of the new Shanghai gold fix. While we have not seen any significant divergences from the London fix what could the possibilities be from this new fix?
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Craig, are you really talking about a Special DrawingRight (SDRs) on a pan Asain Banking Arrangement?
It appears with new new highway from China to Europe they are thinking of Pan Asian trade.
As I understand things;
China is now the biggest producer of gold, China is the biggest importer of gold.
Russia (including the Stans) is now the second biggest producer, supplanting Australia.
Russia is the second biggest importer.
The West must go down in history for stupidly selling its assets at such low prices; as it seek immediate gain in exchange for giving up its future. What lack of vision and forethought!
I think Craig is endowing China as having far too much competence and foresight. At this point it is questionable to me whether the Communist Government there even survives the hard landing that is coming. That gov’t is only strong insofar as they can keep the economy firing on all cylinders. As we are seeing though they have become increasingly desperate if not actually dangerous with the level of excess credit that is being rammed down the throat of the system. Japan suffered more than two decades of depression following a similar but much less excessive period of economic growth. Why will China fare any better? And given that the public is already so disenchanted with the powers that now exist and so many are in open revolt (strikes and public protests for example) then how long might it be before the Party is pushed from power following a serious downturn? Lets just see what happens after a property crash piled on top of the existing stock crash and then smother it all with a string of defaults in WMP’s. It is going to be very ugly once this period ends and I suspect the old guard will be gone before its all over.
CFS, Thanks for that take.
without China and Korea, Japan would have been firing on all cylinders. However, Japan is too focused on sabotaging Chinese progress and as an consequence damage itself more than China. China and Korea in effect eat Japan’s lunch. Korea took a different route. It choose to integrate into Chinese economy and benefit big. For example, Hundai cars are selling like hot cakes. My sister just bought one. All the other items are also very competitive.
I am just saying I don’t think the Communist Party can survive what is coming without a lot of violence. The bubble there is so exceptional on so many levels we just don’t have guidelines to tell us what will come once the downturn begins. It baffles me why anybody keeps saying the Chinese are so smart with their own affairs. They sure have not proven they can exercise restraint. Rather, they are behaving with a spirit of gambling that is also a hallmark of Oriental cultures but I do not think the bets will pay off this time. And all of us will suffer as a result.
In other words….it does not hurt to take some profit off the table. That Old Turkey analogy is cute but I don’t buy it during a bear market which this continues to be. Were we actually in a Bull which the Old Turkey story is actually talking about then I would gladly take sides with him here.
I just don’t get what part of this ongoing bear market people are not understanding. We don’t have a break-out yet. The whole analyst community has become inebriated by this fantastic run. They are drunk from the fumes of success in their metals portfolios and precious few seem to see the usual warning signs.
That is going to result in another painful lesson for all who are convinced that metals will mysteriously soar higher on top of already soaring higher. It is so dumbfounding to me I hardly have words to explain what is wrong with the picture.
Ignorance of chart dynamic by educated people is just no excuse. Stupidity is truly immortal.
Bird, like most people here, you have no idea about China. There is NO chance Communist Party will lose control and violence in any scale. The West has been wishing for that even since 1950s. The party has been in firm control for so long, the economy has never been better. I can compare the living condition now and before, there is actually no comparison. My father is long time anti-government like most of their generation, even he admires the leadership now and praise him to be able to make ordinary people living better. The report here are mostly false. The sporadic protests and violence have been there for long time and it is reported in the West more often, that is it. It is just an propaganda war and psychology warfare. Except some idealogical dissidents who just want China to fall to prove themselves right, other people want stability. Nobody want to give up good life just for the sake of revolution. China is better than even economically. I am willing to bet that the communist party will survive without major problem. The variable is always power struggle within the party not outside.
Of course you are correct. I don’t know anything at all about the Tiananmen Square protests involving up to one million citizens over a raft of complaints that included Party corruption, lack of freedom of the press, no freedom of expression, government intrusion into peoples lives, high inflation rates, unemployment and worker grievances etc etc etc.
No Dragonite, that was all just fiction peddled in the West. Nobody died. Nobody got sent to prison. There was no clampdown on civil rights afterwards and of course the internet is free and open today meaning everyone has access to any news sites they choose from around the world.
Hmmm….seems to me it is worse now than then. But you go buddy. The number of worker strikes has gone parabolic. Factories are shutting down. Defaults beckon and the stock markets have crashed.
You see, I don’t even need to know what will trigger revolts against the government because all i need to understand is how the cycles play out when there is a steep economic decline. Not long ago China was posting GDP growth in excess of 11% per annum.
Today, even the 3% GDP growth is in doubt and the country teeters on the precipice of the single greatest credit event ever witnessed in history. I bet it will all work out fine once the cracks start showing and there is a housing bust. Because as you say the Chinese people are behind their government and don’t want to give up the good life.
Just saying Lawrence. History repeats. And it is not kind to repressive governments once the people start fighting back.
Anyway, don’t worry. This site is blocked in your country. Nobody will read these comments and nobody even cares. It is just an opinion of course.
My friends were among the protesters and I was busy supporting them in 1989. Where were you? That was the second year I got here. China was still in the early stage of change. It did not stay that way, thank God. It is why I say there is no comparison between now and then. I understand your frustration that events did not turned out your way. I say it again I don’t like Chinese government but I don’t hate them as much as before. They have brought some big changes and people live a lot better. As the other events you brought up, they have been happening all the time. You see more reports because the government no longer put them down using army. I knew the way they dealt with these types of protests. It used to be labelled counter revolutionary acts. Government could treat them in hard way. Did you hear 1978 bloodshed in Tiananmen square? It was pretty big too. That was people turned against Mao. I guess you did not hear because the blood was cleared up next day.
I don’t want to sound like defending communism. I was fighting it. China is no longer communism. How many millionaire there were under Mao? Zero. Actually no body had 10000. Now there are many billionaires. It is still to some degree socialism but a lot less socialistic than US and Canada. Chinese empire usually lasts 300 years and overthrown the economy is really bad. By that clue, it is far far away from that point.
It should be 1976 Tiananmen incident, Mao was still alive.
Very pleased to hear your voice, Big Al.
I was beginning to worry about you/wife being sick.
Hope all is well.
1. How about China not wanting gold and silver to crash the week, or month, that their shiny new exchange opens?
2. How about Asian investors no longer having the currency cost of exchanging into USD weighing on their decision to buy gold and silver – something that virtually all Americans do not have to think about when buying gold or silver?
3. Remember how we saw Chinese retail investors pump up Chinese internet and retailer stocks when it became easier for them to buy stocks in China / HK – what if we are witnessing that now starting in gold and silver on the new Chinese exchange? If so, we could be about to see a monster rally in the metals?
Or, all of the above, could be rollocks.
UK BOB……….good points………
interesting thoughts in #3
Ex, mince silver, MISVF, seemed about the best silver stock today.
Yes Minco was nice at 18.85 % but Dolly Varden was nicer at 19.83 % 🙂
Minco Silver Corporation (MISVF)
0.9641 Up 0.1529(18.85%) 3:37PM EDT
Dolly Varden Silver Corporation (DOLLF)
0.2580 Up 0.0427(19.83%) 3:47PM EDT
Then there were these 2 smaller Silver stocks that had very nice moves over 30% :
Southern Silver Exploration Corp. (SSVFF)
0.0910 Up 0.0210(30.00%) 3:27PM EDT
Silver Range Resources Ltd. (SLRRF)
0.1094 Up 0.0284(35.06%) 10:24AM EDT
BUT, Dolly Varden’s total volume came to just C$16,390 while Minco traded C$530,904 😮
So DV gave its shareholders a used Honda Civic while Minco coughed up a loaded Rolls Royce Phantom. I own DV. 😐
Matthew, I love your units of measure!
Funny analogy but it made the gain in DV seem pretty tiny once you put it in those perspectives. I would only counter with, while only a Honda Civic’s worth of shares changed hands today, it rose the whole tide of investors with shares. The collective shares in Dolly Varden that went up in value 19.83% today is what I was focused on.
True, but try getting out without crushing it. We don’t really know where real money would step in to buy. Of course, it might be at a higher price than I think.
Don’t get me wrong though, I think it will go far higher and become more liquid at the same time. People feel good about high prices when buying for some strange reason.
Agreed, Dolly Varden may get more liquid as time goes on. I posted yesterday about how their deposit is on the same mineral belt as the Brucejack deposit that Pretium is developing and the Eskay Creek Mine that Barrick operates.
Dolly Varden Corporate Presentation (check out page 3 to see the proximity to those mines)
http://www.dollyvardensilver.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2015-12_AEMA.pdf
This may sound crazy, but I feel there is a very good chance that Hecla will take them over in a merger, so my strategy is just to wait until those shares are converted over to Hecla shares, and then selling or liquidity won’t be a problem.
It is interesting that Hecla has loaned Dolly Varden money in 2015, that they own 14.3% of the shares, and that Dolly Varden has migrated into Hecla’s office building.
Just food for thought……
Significant shareholders of Dolly Varden Silver:
Hecla Mining Company 14.3%
Robert Gipson 13.6%
Ingalls & Snyder 13.6%
St. Thomas Cap Partners 3.8%
Dolly Varden Silver Draws Final $500,000 Loan Tranche, Discusses Further Progress
“VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESSWIRE / February 3, 2016 / Dolly Varden Silver Corporation (TSX.V) (OTC: DOLLF) is pleased to announce receipt of C$500,000 in funds comprising the second and final tranche of the previously announced senior secured loan from Hecla Canada Ltd. and Robert L. Gipson, two significant shareholders of the Company. Receipt of these funds brings the total amount funded under the Loan to C$2 million.”
“…In January, Dolly Varden reduced staff and consolidated its corporate office within Hecla Canada’s Vancouver corporate office space, allowing elimination of monthly office rent payment….”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dolly-varden-silver-draws-final-233000937.html
Ex is a wealth of knowledge…………….details plus…………..love it , thanks……..OOTB
Thanks OOTB. I appreciate the kind words.
Thanks, Ex.
You sure watch a lot of stocks, more than I do.
My only excuse right now is that I’m travelling and only have an IPad.
Glad to share CFS. Yeah I know what you mean, as I was traveling earlier in the week using only my smart phone an I felt out of touch with what was going on in the markets, and did’t have access to my print out at home. It’s definitely much easier to watch the markets in front of a computer.
I own Dolly Varden, so I knew it had a good day. In my trading platform I also built a Silver watch-list based on all the charts and lists I’ve been posting lately so now I can easily scan down which companies out-performed at a quick glance.
You’re amazing, & thanks Ex!
Much appreciated Marty. Right back atcha. I always enjoy your thoughts on the miners and we are often tracking many of the same companies. I wish for you amazing gains in your trading account. If there are any companies that you think may make a good move please say the word.
M in co
I agree with Chris Vermeulen…
Gold and Silver are on the Cusp of a Massive Rally!
“Despite announcements of further QE made by the ECB as well as negative interest rates which were announced by the BOJ, gold has ‘held its’ own’. This indicates that the traders are not buying the current upward move in the SPX, but rather, are accumulating gold at every dip.
The ‘smart money’ enters the ‘asset class’ at an early stage of the new bullish trend, hence, it is important to follow the ‘smart money’ so as to verify if they too believe in my hypothesis that we are about to witness a ‘massive financial crisis’ unfold!”
http://howestreet.com/2016/04/gold-and-silver-are-on-the-cusp-of-a-massive-rally/
Whereas Agnico-Eagle (AEM)was the benchmark PM equity from late 2008-2012, I believe 1st Majestic (AG) may be the perceived benchmark going forward, though a much smaller company. Keith Neumeyer, one of the few CEOs that has a pair.
Of course Pierre Lassonde of Franco Nevada fame is the one and only existing Godfather!
Agreed on both all accounts. I used to use Agnico Eagle, Newmont, and Rangold as the bell-weather stocks for the larger Gold miners. First Majestic is a good middle of the road bell-weather for the Silver stocks. Franco Nevada is about as solid of a company as one can find in the mining and streaming spectrum, and very well run. It is one of those companies that many people have a position in for some safe stable returns, but as a result it doesn’t have the torque and leverage that some of the smaller and riskier companies offer.
Silver-Mining Stocks Shine Brightest; Newmont Jumps After Earnings Beat
Friday April 22, 2016
Collectively, the biggest gainers for the week were silver companies, as the rise in silver prices outpaced gold. Bear Creek Mining Corp. (TSXV: BCM) jumped 69 cents, or 37%. Early in the week, the company took the step of issuing a news release saying there “are no material corporate developments and the company is not aware of any undisclosed material developments” to affect its stock price.
Excellon Resources (TSX: EXN) jumped 29 cents, or 30%, during a week in which the company said first-quarter production was up from the fourth. “In late February, we accessed the Rodilla Manto, approximately seven months ahead of schedule as we encountered mineralization outside of the Platosa resource block model and dry mining conditions facilitated rapid development,” says Brendan Cahill, president and chief executive officer.
Numerous other silver producers also had heady gains. Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE: EXK) climbed 88 cents, or 29%. Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (NYSE MKT: ASM) added 32 cents, or 26%. Great Panther Silver Ltd. (NYSE MKT: GPL) jumped 28 cents, or 24%. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSX: SVM) climbed 51 cents, or 22%. Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL) – which last week reported record silver-equivalent output in the first quarter — jumped 58 cents, or 18%. And the list goes on….”
Don’t forget Rob McEwen and MUX.
McEwen accolades all came with Goldcorp and deservedly so. Integrity personified much like Bob Quartermain of PRETIUM.
I had posted this late yesterday, but if anyone missed it, it’s a good BNN Show featuring Rob. Apparently MUX just bought out an existing royalty on their processing so that they would be free of that burden. He’s a good CEO.
Rob McEwen: No debt and looking for deals
Wed, Apr 20, 2016 – 11:50 AM
“McEwen Mining’s Rob McEwen expects to produce the equivalent of 144,000 ounces of gold this year. The company’s stock is up more than 130% in 2016 and McEwen says he’s open to using shares to help pay for an acquisition.”
Quite so Marty.
Well now I know the Gold and Oil guy is suffering from confirmation bias just like the vast majority of the analyst community. I could not disagree with him more on his statements. He is actually calling for a bull rally on top of a parabolic price run.
Does that not just prove how seductive metals markets are?
Let me repeat something here Mathew since many people are still confused. We have NOT yet seen a breakout of metals or mining stocks on the long term charts. All we have seen thus far is a bear market rally, albeit a very strong one.
Gold, Silver and the miners are still in a bear market and live within their declining trend channels. There WILL BE a significant price retracement from here. The fact you agree with Chris is worth absolutely nothing and nobody here should take you seriously since you are just a promoter.
Last….I am going to refer you back to this post and many others like it as the correction ensues. I will be right as usual. In fact the technical picture could not be easier to read right now.
Buyers beware.
You know Birdman, you are not going to like me saying this but the other guy who is advising caution, and telling people to wait for the inevitable correction in gold and silver, is Gary.
He has posted some excellent reports on the subject in recent weeks.
I am going to add a 🙂 here. See, I did it already. Here’s another one 🙂
Yes I saw that and I will give Gary plenty of credit for that sensible call. Where I differ from him is that he insists nobody should short gold or silver off these highs. That makes no sense to me at all after this kind of run. The parabola begs to be bought on the downside and indeed there are very substantial short positions now being initiated or already in the works. In other words, the set up is about as low risk as it comes but obviously that is not for everyone because so few can execute it successfully. In that respect Gary is right that investors should not try to play both sides. He is however making a very big assumption here. The first is that he does not see more than a corrective decline coming. If he is wrong then his subscribers will see most of their gains melt away for the next months and nobody will feel good about that.
I think Gary has extensively laid out his thoughts on his blog Birdman and they make sense to me.
I suspect that more experienced traders, such as yourself, can taken advantage of things like DUST Birdman. But Gary has a whole bunch of subscribers, from the very inexperienced to the experienced, and I think his plans for gold and silver make a whole lot of sense from where I am standing.
You guys should bury the hatchet as you probably have a lot in common going forward about these markets.
OK Bob. Will do.
🙂
Bird…………you are about 45% correct , if you follow GS…….the GURU REPORT … 🙂
Birdman, you obviously didn’t read Vermeulen’s article or you would have noticed that he said:
“I expect that there will be an exceptional opportunity to buy soon in metals. I want to maximize the gains of each and every dollar that is invested, therefore, I will advise my subscribers when it is the most optimum entry point.”
———–
That means he expects a pullback. The rally he’s talking about that we are on the cusp of is not some squirt that will last days or weeks. If the miners go up another 10% or more from here, it will have nothing to do with the rally that he is talking about.
You might have better results if you learn to focus on more than just the day to day gyrations.
Saw it. The body of the article was so much in praise of metals though it hardly even registered. Chris unfortunately is one more of the people that does not understand why gold mining companies were so successful in the Great Depression and so he parrots the standard lines without insight into that time period.
Unless we get a government intervention in the ownership space (confiscation) or another similar action then we should not expect precious metals to perform any better than any other company.
It was after all the confiscation and subsequent buying of virtually all gold mine output by the US Government that caused the miners of the day to enjoy such tremendous profits.
Profits led the rally in stock values. The connection was as obvious then as it is now. In this day and age it is perhaps Chinese buying that will propel future gold mine profits all over the world. We don’t know yet because gold is still at very low price levels.
As we speak though it is still just a commodity.
That’s just silly, Bird. No confiscation is necessary for the miners to do extremely well and the gold price is very high right now in real terms – and that’s what matters, not the dollar price.
It is also ridiculous to say: “As we speak though it is still just a commodity.”
That is not “silly” Matthew. What I wrote are facts. Go read your history and come back with a better argument. Secondly, gold does trade as a commodity. It has done so for years. That is why it is traded on the commodity floors and in the futures markets right alongside wheat and corn.
You don’t seem very bright some days. Maybe its still morning where you live.
LOL Bird.
SGE………….HUGE.
I still think the CHINESE like silver……………….
Al;
Haven’t heard much from RPM lately.
Can you get Bill on for an update soon.
Thanks
For those who can view a monthly chart, IPT priced in gold (real money) looks extremely good. The same would obviously apply to many companies; I just chose IPT because I like it.
We’re in for the bull of a lifetime, no doubt about it.
The HUI has risen 90% versus gold yet still needs to rally another 14% just to reach its 2008 crash low.
Based on the monthly RSI(14), HUI:Gold hasn’t been this strong since 2007.
Too bad the party is over. Oh well, better luck next time we get a price rise.
HUI………..well worth watching at this point.
Sinclair-Holter Q&A #6 – April 17 2016
Uploaded on Apr 18, 2016
Bill and Jim’s sixth online Q&A session. Topics discussed include politics, storage, hyperinflations and currencies. Jim spoke about TRX and force majeure followed by connecting the dots of truth bombs, Deutsche Bank’s admissions of manipulation, recent resurfacing of 911 in the news, the Saudi bombshell, the ABX, expedited meetings in Washington, and what likelihood China will move to a gold backed yuan.
TRX info starts at the 12:20 mark.
Are stars aligned for gold revaluation — and is GATA finished?
No.
All the US indices including the DAX are now posting reversal candles which, if they hold until weeks end will see declines beginning by Monday or Tuesday. I still don’t expect anything serious until May but the trend could flatten and go sideways between now and then. i am NOT buying this market as it stands.
https://www.pimco.com/insights/viewpoints/viewpoints/rumpelstiltskin-at-the-fed