Taking emotion out of it here are some targets for gold and oil
Rick Ackerman joins us to look at this recent pullback in the US markets and gold, plus the continued move up in oil. While Rick is in the bearish camp for the US equity markets he does accept that there is a nice uptrend currently and this pullback will be important to see where it ends. As for gold he has a lower and higher target for trading purposes but still no breakouts just yet…
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
No!
This is just the usual Friday smack down.
I predicted it explicitly a few days ago when some clueless people were saying there is no manipulation.
The little bears here are funny. Like Rick said, it’s just a shakeout, pure and simple.
I noticed that long ago. It is more often when gold is in a bull run.
b, yes you should listen to Bird, but also Armstrong made it very clear what the direction would be and spoke of the Promoters and perma bulls. They never learn,
Bobby, I have been around long enough to see the perma bulls.
Couple years ago, if ya mentioned gold could move down you were chased off this site.
Constant bs of shortages etc.
No big deal tho.
As for listening to Bird, he has been the best I have seen for predicting a drop in the gold price. very accurate. off by a couple days this time tho.
I actually thought I mentioned awhile back I was no longer satisfied with an approximate, I want the exact hour, phase of the moon etc. lol
I agree with Bob M about Armstrong. I no others like him, (i have nothing against him) but i disagree with people sometimes.
B, Birdman requires followers who know even less than he does in order to look good. He has been calling for a major top, the kind that lasts for months not a few days. So you do not yet have any evidence that he will be right and you certainly can’t say that he already is right.
Had he said that we are in for a short term pullback, he would have had no argument from me as the daily chart looks perfect for just that.
Btw, do you know what we call those who’ve relied only on the daily chart since January? Roadkill.
Since the beginning of the move, I’ve been saying that we should pay more attention to the weekly chart for a reason.
Bull markets are full of scary shakeouts. IPT holders should recall that when it first hit .45 in March, it plunged 33.5% the next day and was up 47% off that low the following day. It has since gone on to .75 and is .66 right now. It’s that kind of action that throws people off the bull.
To be clear, even if this turns into a genuine correction, Birdman still won’t be correct because he has been saying that it is OVER.
geez Mathew, the way I see it Bird is already correct, a couple days early tho.
He said it would drop and it has, now we get to see how much.
As for “followers” I kinda think Bird thinks for himself.
Matthew this impulse move up could be wave A of an ABC correction or else wave c of an expanding flat and as long is does not breach the 1307.64 the next leg would be down(wave 5)to complete the expanding diagonal triangle.We can agree to disagree but these are the 2 scenarios that I am looking at.I have been preaching for quite awhile now that the 1307.64 level is of utmost importance.If it is breached to the upside than the first scenario come into play.Nonetheless a correction (wave b) would be due just the same.
B, you can see it however you want to. My point is that today’s pullback is not special and not a call I would have disagreed with. My disagreement with him had to do with his call for an end to the larger uptrend. From that standpoint, he is not yet correct whether you think he is or not.
It might be a more protracted consolidation or even end up being a noteworthy correction, but if it’s not, then following Bird could cause one a lot more harm than good.
IPT and USA are down 8-9% right now (both of which I already pruned into strength) but the rest of my portfolio is down less than 1%. So what’s the practical benefit of Bird’s squawking? For most people, none – or worse.
Those who are experienced and nimble enough to do much with today’s move sure don’t need Bird, or me, in the first place.
My gainers today are currently up 1.8%, 2.7%, 5.26%, 8.33%, and 29% – not exactly the way an intermediate term correction usually starts.
Thanks for sharing that Don. So I take it you’re not nearly as bearish as Birdman, at the moment?
the number 1307………..unlucky and lucky………….13 unlucky….07 lucky…..if, you believe in luck……….
Thanks bb. And thank you Bobby too.
You are making me laugh bb! Short of naming a time and date a week in advance I don’t know how much closer a guy can get to picking the top of a rally and advising to get short.
My explicit call that the current rise of this bear market rally came yesterday in a post to Jerry OOTB after silver went vertical and collapsed back below 17 dollars. Here is that post if you missed it. I am 100% sure it will stand as the final word on when the rally came to a halt.
——————————————–
On April 21, 2016 at 7:08 am,
Birdman says:
It’s over Jerry. That is the end of the run (don’t buy any more silver now is my best advice to you).
I can now tell you with absolutely 100% percent certainty and without any equivocation whatsoever that silver has just seen its final move up. Today is a day to take your profits because the next moves in the coming weeks will be retracements and declines off that parabolic high.
So I am calling it right here and right now.
You just saw silver top in real time on April 21 2016 and it is going to be a long time before you see that price again. Many months at a minimum and perhaps not again until 2017 if my forecast of a full retrace to new lows bears fruit.
——————————————–
PS: Chew that one over Matthew. Apparently you are a secret admirer of mine anyway since you now admit you trimmed into the peak and took profits on stocks. I am curious though, have you taken out protection yet on the remainder?
If you did then I can be assured you actually do trust my instincts on gold and have been paying attention despite arguing with me every day that I am wrong!
Bird, you’re as bad as BB and Bobby. You have nothing to confirm that it is “over.” So there is nothing to chew on and no reason to paste your your old comments. Your day might be coming, but so far, you’re just showing what you don’t know by proclaiming your victory.
As for my selling, sorry to break it to you but I always sell strength and it has never had a thing to do with you.
That comment is not old. It’s from yesterday! And yes, I am absolutely certain of that call so I posted it twice just to make sure YOU saw it again and later on down the road you cannot assert “you did not call the top Bird”.
By the way, I am not actually calling a “top” in silver or gold as if they are “final tops” or anything silly like that. Lets stay focused. I have repeatedly stated that I am referring strictly to the period that began in January when this bear market rally began.
This is merely the end of that particular cyclical bounce.
The metals will indeed have their day. It is just not going to be now, that’s all.
You are too funny Matthew. 🙂
“To be clear, even if this turns into a genuine correction, Birdman still won’t be correct because he has been saying that it is OVER”. ~~ Matthew
———————
That is not true Matthew. Obviously you do not read my posts very often. My reference period is the bounce from January through to April. That is what I am talking about. There is a risk we get a price retrace all the way back to the December lows in gold though.
I would not discount that possibility for a moment. And Goldman Sachs agrees.
Matthew I am open to all possibilities.I wish I could know the future but then most probably I would be a prophet not a trader:)Correct me if I am wrong but your take is that gold has bottomed last year and that we are in the first leg of an abc correction to 1500 level.My first scenario is that we are still in a bearish trend until that 1307.64 is breached to the upside.Currently we are in wave A of the final wave down i.e. the 5th wave.Your scenario is my backup plan.Matthew now lets see which one has the highest probabilty.Take a look at jnug weekly and you see that it has ended with a bearish hammer and if you draw a trendline on the weekly rsi from 2/10/2014 touching the peak of 7/7/2014 it will touch exactly todays peak.That is bearish.Besides that the commercials have added to their short positions since last week.Gold weekly has ended with a bearish candlestick too and my gut tells me that next week macd will cross and go below the signal line which is also bearish.I can give many other facts that back my scenario matthew but lets keep it simple which happens to be my motto in trading.
Matthew this is the gold cot report for this week.Look by yourself.Commercials are smart people matthew.Mark my words and they have been early to the party for a reason.
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1461353629.php
Don Corleone, I appreciate you unpacking your Elliot Wave analysis for us here on the KER and the different scenarios you are considering. Also, I agree the large Commercial short position on the COT should be heeded.
My pleasure shad.I try to help the best I can.Best of luck buddy.
It IS true, Birdman:
On April 21, 2016 at 11:09 pm,
Birdman says:
Too bad the party is over. Oh well, better luck next time we get a price rise.
—————-
GDXJ hasn’t even broken its steepest short term trend line or filled Tuesday’s gap. Face it, you’ve called blip so far, that’s all. Now do you get it? There is nothing special about that.
If we end up with an intermediate term top right here, my outlook will have been wrong. I posted Chris Vermeulen’s article yesterday and said I agreed with it. He said a good buying opportunity is coming. I have not considered a correction of some kind to be unlikely.
It’s clear to me that you have been very bearish. So clear things up; are you saying that this is a top that will last for months or not?
Don, you are correct. I believe that gold has bottomed. It’s true that the daily chart is not pretty but the action in silver and the miners leads me to think that it will be fine.
Are you saying that this is an intermediate term top?
Don, thanks for the added details, btw.
I already told you up above what my time period reference is. This particular bear market rally in metals has now popped. Don’t make my comments into something they are not.
Obviously much will depend on the Yen. It does look bullish but then again it could drop back down and make a gigantic double bottom. I don’t know what it will do next.
Do you?
Bird, no I don’t, but I think it is heading for at least 87.5 and probably more like 85.5
I just read moments ago that there had been record longs on the Yen. You could be right it will fall to mid 85ish before those guys are all washed out. This drop today was truly spectacular for such a major currency.
The yen dropped 2.71% this week while gold only fell .17%. Maybe the yen-gold relationship is at the beginning of its end. Crazy policies have consequences.
Another view on oil:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/oil-at-85-by-the-end-of-the-year-rothman.html
I believe anyone predicting $85 oil by year end is either a pure propagandist or is predicting a war (even if sub-consciously)
It could happen next year. This year I am expecting around 60.
When some many of the producers are hedging again in the $45-$55 range, I see that as putting a lid on Oil prices getting much beyond that in the mid – term.
I am just looking at the charts instead of fundamentals as it seems the market usually does not care about fundamentals anymore with stocks shooting up on bad earnings as an example One day stocks will rise on negative earnings when they beat the loss expectation and show smaller than expected losses.
That’s a good point Paul L., and I agree to make sense of most markets the technical data is key. With Oil and soft commodities and fertilizers, the supply demand picture seems to come into focus more than in other commodities. People can actually see the changes at the gas pump every day, (of the oil tankers floating all over the world stocked up with Oil); where, in contrast, few can really gauge Gold, or Silver, or Copper, or Tin, or Zinc demand in their daily life.
I agree that the move up in Oil flies in the face of the supply/demand fundamentals though, and this rally was driven by the technical indicators. I guess maybe I’ll stop posting articles that deal in the fundamentals for Oil as they don’t really seem to matter. Great reminder sir.
How Did the Crude Oil Inventory Report Affect Crude Oil Prices?
By Gordon Kristopher – Fri, Apr 22, 2016 – Market Realist
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/did-crude-oil-inventory-report-122405018.html
CFS…Will it continue down next week ?
If you are asking me, biggus,
I do not expect silver to go down next week.
I expect gold to be essentially flat over the next month. But please understand, this is just a personal opinion, and I look at fundamentals, not a TA chart reader.
Many times technical analysis can pick up supply/demand data and/or psychological effects that are delayed in being reported statistically.
If you read gold on fundamentals you will go broke. What fundamentals??!!!
I have a huge gain for this week on BP. I picked up some Netflix 4 cents from the low.
I sold my Valeant in the after market yesterday and it shot up $3 today.
Is Long ‘VIX’ A Crowded Trade?
APR 22, 2016 – Forbes – Peter Tchir
“First I am reluctant to call these “VIX” based products as the ETF’s and ETN’s are not tied to spot VIX as we know it and see it reported every day. The vast majority of “VIX” linked, exchange traded product are tied to an index that is linked to the performance of the first two VIX futures contracts…..”
The numbers certainly attract my attention.
In a year where equity ETF’s have experienced almost no net flows, it is truly striking how much money is entering this product space.
The double leveraged long short term VIX products have added almost $1.3 billion ytd in spite of being down 43% (the numbers since February 16th are more staggering with UVXY getting $1.4 billion and TVIX getting $0.55 billion – a whopping $1.95 billion in total).”
I don’t know what this does for the market, but the rapid growth to never before seen sizes in a complex and highly leveraged space is something every investor in the market should be looking at and trying to understand because I think the size of these VIX based products has grown to the point that they cannot be easily dismissed or ignored.
I am not aware of any open ended mutual funds that offer similar return profiles – which may explain the rise of the ETFs and ETNs in this space, though I suspect that open ended mutual funds don’t want to have to reverse split as frequently as the leveraged vehicles in this area have had to.”
The Heroic Assumptions Behind The Current Stock Market Rally
JESSE FELDER’S TUMBLR – 04/22/2016
http://jessefelder.tumblr.com/post/143218984760/the-heroic-assumptions-behind-the-current-stock
BOJ to Consider Negative Rates for Loans
by Bloomberg Video 5:11 mins – Featuring Axel Merk
April 22 — The yen dropped the most in 17 months after Bloomberg reported the Bank of Japan may consider helping banks lend by offering a negative rate on some loans. Merk Investments President Axel Merk weighs in on “Bloomberg Markets.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/boj-consider-negative-rates-loans-172954493.html
Free money for all borrowers. That is truly amazing. I never thought I would see that. I never even considered it. We once had a mortgage in the double digit percentages. Cannot recall how high it was exactly anymore. Maybe 15% or something like that.
Just imagine a negative interest mortgage though. Holy crap man! What a world!!!!
Leveraged vix products are just too dangerous to own. I have quite a large loss on the non-leveraged vixy but it is very slowly creeping up and this spring or summer it should be much higher. I got a nice 6k gain on my BP purchase which was done too late on Monday. I usually get the best prices sitting on the crapper in the premarket and hesitated and decided to wait for the open and I gave up about another 6k in gains.
I own TVIX with a cost basis of $3.89 at present, so it is only slightly underwater since the TVIX is currently at $3.68. If it spikes back up over $4-$6 then I’ll trim some of the position back and lower the cost basis a little more.
Typically I only use the leveraged ETFs to capture short duration moves, but the only downer, as pointed out before, is when markets consolidate sideways as the decay starts eating away at the position. Normally I’m not in leveraged ETFs for very long, but I’ve averaged down a few times now and am stuck near parity.
It looked like the markets and Oil were going to roll over and get the party started but now they have rebounded again. I’m debating what to do at present because I really dislike going into the weekend with leveraged ETFs because the after hours and pre market trading often bails me out or gives me an indication of what is coming the next day. Over time I’m not worried about the VIX popping back up, but I have other areas I want to deploy this capital. What a conundrum….
I think the vix should start a move up at the beginning of May with the S&P at the last high or higher. My vixy cost is now around 11.60 I believe and it hit 11 today but I think that is likely the limit for now.
Hey, Ex, JAG still doesn’t want to give up the upper Bollinger band…
Paul L. – I agree with May being the time where the stock markets will likely roll over with the seasonal “sell in May and go away” pattern.
Hi Matthew – Yes, I’ve been watching Jaguar Mining and it has just traded sideways and I still haven’t taken any action on my position. I’m concerned that there may be some more short term harm to many PM stocks, but I’ve been trimming my Silver stocks this week and just trimmed a little off Perseus Mining instead of JAG since it’s had a nice move up as well.
Shad my view regarding the tvix is that it is is going to drop lower until the june fomc meeting.Price by then will be 1.5 approx.If I were you I would sell on the next pullback.Dydd like always.Gl buddy.
Hi Don Corleone.
Yes, that thought had crossed my mind; especially if the markets may end up going to new highs and a potential blow off top. I may use the next market pullback as an escape hatch, which is pretty funny; because I just wrote to Doc on his blog asking if underwater volatility investors may jump out at the first signs of green shoots, thus capping the move to the upside in vehicles like VIXY, UVXY, and TVIX.
I’d rather preserve my capital if TVIX jumps and make a small return than try to be a pig and get slaughtered. My whole rationale was based on the S&P and DOW making a lower high, with the rounded “dome” top resistance. However, the general stock indexes have both exceeded that resistance and are pushing towards making new highs if things keep going like this. Sometimes it pays to admit you were wrong, and the scenario I expected is not playing out.
I appreciate the thoughts as always Don C.
Doc has a blog? Where?
I was referring to the KER blog under today’s editorial with Doc, where they discussed the VIX and volatility instruments.
Best strategy imo shad.Procratination is the thief of time and in these 3x 2x etfs procrastination is the thief of money.
Shad that is why I advocate to put a stop loss in place.I know that sometimes it plays against you but at least it gives you the peace of mind that if things go wrong you will have another chance. But above all a stop loss takes the emotions out of a trade.
Yes, I agree that procrastination is the thief of time, and that over time the decay eats away at the 2x and 3x EFTs. I’m still expecting a correction to the markets to start in May, so I’ll likely wait and see how that plays out, but if the pain becomes too great I’ll have to sell and then buy back lower.
I sometimes do use stop losses, but in general I don’t like them because I’ve had them just barely tripped before only for the markets to do an immediate U-turn the other direction. I generally acquire or sell stocks using the limit orders, but sometimes watch it live and do the bidding manually. Obviously watching it live is better for accuracy and to see the trend developing, but limit orders do the trading for me while I’m at work or sleeping or enjoying good social company.
By now there’s a roughly approximated flag in the weekly chart, and this is probably the continuation pattern. ADX says upward momentum is strong, while KST says there’s a lot more room, while the Stoch 14,7,7 says the rally is fulfilled.
FranSix – Good points on the KST and the ADX, but the positive DI has pulled back sharply from 38 down to 26. Gold still appears to be in that channel you’ve noted.
Thanks.
Matthew, you are so much smarter than Bird, but most people who post here are sheeple, you are not. Bird is a drama queen who believes the best defense is an offense, he knows nothing of substance. DT
Are you guys going to start kissing now? 😉
Just look at how silly he gets when his game is revealed.DT
The people who post here are not Sheeple.
Hello and thank you, DT, where the heck have you been? Hope you’re doing well.
I just stumbled on an eight minutes that you might find of interest:
Matthew, the whole selection of a leader is a sham, I believe people should be appalled look at what happened in Colorado, and Wyoming! DT
Yup. That’s why I don’t encourage or support any of them and never have.
Matthew I am trying to answer to your question but somehow my posts are not appearing.I will have another try tommorrow.
Matthew my outlook for gold is bearish.Jnug weekly has ended with a shooting star and thats an omen for the juniors.I base my trading on probabilities matthew and atm all indicators are pointing to a continuation of the bearish trend.This has been a correction in a bear trend.Thats all.Nothing to write home about imo.
Thanks Don. We’ll find out soon.
Dont know if it was Dragi drivel that caused gold to head lower.
Unless Bird is getting inside info. lol
Actually, that would explain a few things. lol