The Fed meeting and struggling tech sector
Chris Temple joins us for the market wrap. We discuss the Fed statement which seems to have surprised no one. We also touch on drop in Apple and Twitter in the face of the markets which still were able to record gains (at least in the S&P and Dow). Finally with the Bank of Japan on deck with a policy statement tomorrow will it have any impact?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click here to visit Chris Temple’s website for further commentary.
This is what Janet Yellen is increasingly sounding like in explaining why the Fed just can’t hike rates any more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFvujknrBuE
Was out for the day and have tried to find the ‘news’ on the Fed’s statement. Not a lot our there. Even though investor’s tensions supposedly rises prior to their breathless statement, this one was a bomb……….Marketwatch didn’t even cover it, that I could find.
Unfortunately, in copying failed Japanese monetary policy, while the Fed may have managed to blow bubbles in stocks and housing, and make the 1 percent richer, it has totally destroyed the pension system in the US, and is in the process of destroying all banks and insurance companies.
(Perhaps, even the monetary system itself.)
Yes it has — but it still has lots more room to monetize things (which Japan is running out of now) and inevitably will.
Come on: Please Repeat after Me. ” Keynes was wrong, is always wrong in the long term. Keynesian Theory has never produced anything other than transitory stimulation”.
There is a wonderful film about the life of the Russian Princess ‘Anastasia’ which stars Ingrid Bergman and Yul Bryner.
The final line is from Helen Hayes who, simply, says: “The Show Must Go On!”.
There will be no rate rise.
They will ramp this market up.
Facebook will be good for another market ramp tomorrow. It never ends.
I disagree with Mr. Temple that the number one driver of gold is low interest rates.
I would place declining dollar value (or call it inflation, if you like) as the primary driver of gold prices, with interest rates providing minor/short-term variations.
CFS,
Chris mentioned (quote) “negative REAL interest rates”.
Not “low interest rates” as you mentioned…
Not the same thing…
My 2cts,
LPG
The fed are are bunch of morons in cahoots with wall street bankster and politicians.They are so pathetic.Their art of economic and financial doublespeak is so diabolic that they make me sick.They are backed into a corner and they have no bullets left other than to go negative with interest rates which if you think about it will increase the odds of the usd losing its world reserve status in lesser time.The fed has become the puppet of the tbtf banks.
Think in terms of the Mafia: JPM-the( FED)Godfather, GS-the (Treasury, ESF) eldest son, Who Can Do No Harm!
And of course Da Boyz of K Street- the loan sharks.
Don D,
While the Federal Reserve is clearly unnecessary and should be abolished, never forget it is the pathetic, useless, self-serving, croney-favoring, money-grabbing scum politicians that are really to blame.
Yeah it is ultimately their fault.Everyone knows that these tbtf banksters have funded their campaigns and always will.Bunch of scumbags.No wonder why it is called politics.POLI means many in greek and TICS are blood sucking creatures.
The Big Boys in The Club that none of us belong to have the politicians and judges in their back pocket. That’s why I like Trump, he won’t and hasn’t accepted their money and you should too no matter what you think of the man. I know you will say he is part of them but he isn’t that’s why they are trying to derail him. I imagine you know who The Koch brothers are they have thrown their millions behind Hillary now that Cruz and Kasich are beaten. DT
DT, media spin is behind the story that the Kochs are for Hillary. They are saints compared to her.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/koch-for-clinton-not-a-chance
Hey guys, is it my computer playing up, or did i see Avi Gilbert on todays list???
Yes, he was next to Axel Merk, if I remember correctly.
I did put a slight rant in the comments, so it may be my fault that it has been removed.
My rant was not near as bad as my one against politicians……!
Or it may have been that Cory posted part of Avi’s email, that was not supposed to be posted.
Cheers CFS. I thought i dreamt it up. I was looking forward to read/ listen to it, but never got round to it. Grrr!
Hey Matthew and Excelsior:
I really liked this article on the HUI charts, showing extraordinary reverse symmetry. Nothing like a 2-year perspective. Enjoy!
Brian
Thanks for that chart on the HUI symmetry Brian. Based on that chart, and keeping with the theme of symmetry, I’d expect a pullback first before the steep incline back up to 245-250.
Could be, Ex, but notice what happened when it pulled back from 182. It only made it half way back to the 166 support and spent no time consolidating before going higher. Aside from the look of the double bottom, the symmetry has been weakening due to the strength of the move (surprises to the upside, not reaching pullback targets, etc etc).
Good point. The pattern of the HUI symmetry may be breaking down as the pullbacks don’t reach the downside targets as you mentioned.
There is really no reason the HUI pattern has to stay exactly symmetrical anyway (other than it was pleasing to my eyes 🙂 ). Maybe it will just charge higher to the 245-250 zone without needing the pullback, but either way this larger S&R neckline will be significant though.
Cheers
If the US Dollar does stay weak based on the latest Fed blather, then this may accelerate the metals advance without the need for much more pause. I was actually expecting the the USD to strengthen back to 96-97 in the short term on a little rally, but the no hike environment aided in keeping it soft for now.
Re: “There is really no reason the HUI pattern has to stay exactly symmetrical anyway…”
Exactly. Once a bottom is in, this sector moves. That’s why I never bought into the argument that the miners would come out of the low like they went in — saucer-like.
There was never a chance of that happening.
I agree that the move can accelerate before taking a real break and am betting on it. If so, the question is, do we have days or weeks of more upside before there’s a real correction.
Good thoughts. I still have a few small allocations to my favorite miners, and a little speculative funny money to work in some Jrs that have really had the big moves yet, but I’m mostly in a holding pattern. If the metals start back up with Gold heading for $1280 and Silver heading to $17.72 then I’ll add, and if gold breaks below $1220 or Silver gets back into the low $16s then I’ll add. Either way, I’ll be adding once we get a trend going and the upside or downside targets are in range, but while we are in this consolidation zone then I’m just holding. I was anticipating a pullback in the metals, but they have been very resilient.
I often feel like the Jedi do in this scene waiting for barriers to be lifted to continue on with the fight, and I’m trying to remember to meditate instead of getting antsy pantsy.
If she blows up to the 250 zone DUST will be below 95 cents and time to buy!
Thanks Brian.
Thanks Brian, Rambus is often very helpful. Just proves that where we are now is fairly important. There is neither a final decision made for a continuation upwards nor a collapse back down.
We will find out soon enough if there will be a breakthrough on the HUI and a break out on the metals charts though. One thing that is really bothering me is that gold almost looks like it is making a bullish triangle continuation pattern (weekly chart).
That was not supposed to happen according to the playbook. If there is not a pullback in precious metals (both gold and silver prices) fairly soon then the bear case may be at risk.
Shad and Don…are you guy seeing the same thing? This topping process in gold is just going on too long now. Where the hell is the usual gold smash?!!!
Well the jury is still out for me on whether Gold has been putting in a topping pattern or a consolidation pattern for a 2nd thrust higher. Honestly, for me, it is too difficult to call here, and my focus has been on watching currencies (USD, Yen, Loonie) for clues, as well as the bond market and the commodity space. There are many mixed signals and it is a mixed bag, but it has been more more constructive for the metals than I was anticipating. I figured the USD would bounce and that the Yen/Loonie would pull back with Oil and commodities. That isn’t was has played out thus far.
As for the miners, I took most of the winning chips off the table and trimmed back my mining shares recently to just small allocations in my favorites, but did throw a little speculative money out into some miners that haven’t started a big move yet. I’m going to start getting a little Jr mining money peculating in case the value drivers kick in (takeover targets, drill results, development progress, etc….. )
If gold takes off and heads for $1280 then I’m going to have to add back into the miners; just like if Gold pulls back below $1220 then I’d start adding into that weakness. There has been so much Silver touting going on in articles the last few weeks, that it concerned me when things changed from rumor to news. However, I do still see the case to be made where Silver has potentially more catching up to do despite it’s move, but it has been getting a bit frothy for me. If Silver pulls back into the low $16s then I’ll start to add, and if it breaks above $17.72 (or even starts getting close) then I’ll add back some Silver stocks.
Much of the action lately has all been very counter-intuitive, and the markets and oil seem to charge higher without a care in the world and they are shrugging off all bad news (typically bull market behavior).
Overall, I’ve been consumed by swing-trading the Energy markets in Oil, Uranium, and Lithium. Many Uranium and Lithium stocks have had 5-15% swings every day or so I’ve been buying dips and selling rips right back, and then repeating playing “hot potato” re-balancing from one stock to another. For the most part I’ve had the PM markets on the back burner the last few days and just tuned out the PM sector until we got through FOMC madness.
Today I had a fun but adrenaline-filled trading session playing the roller coaster moves in Oil using DWTI to short, and UWTI to go long, and then went back short, sold the second dip down, and got out watched Oil break up even higher, but then went short at the end of the day with my heart racing and my wallet smiling. It was rewarding because I had my clock cleaned on an oil short at the end of last week that didn’t work out too hot, so I recovered back those losses. The resistance zone in Oil at $47.71-$48.36 made by prior peaks should cap this rally IMO, and I’ll get uber bearish oil if it gets up in that range, especially if the US dollar doesn’t rally soon. The greenback has stayed weak longer than I expected and the no hike from the Fed probably was designed to keep it soft.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40353657562
Thanks Shad. You feel like I do. This Yen move was waaaay over the top and not expected. The dollar also took a dive but is at support. Curious minds are waiting to see if Yen falls back today and the dollar bounces but right now all of this should be bullish for gold so I am holding my breathe.
I HATE having to bail on a trade. But that’s life. Lets see how it goes.
Yep. I may have to bail on my short Oil trade if the dollar dips further as that won’t do me any favors. Also, the miners will be peppy in this kind of environment, so I may add a little to the metals.
Seriously, if the bugs turn out to be correct and metals head North from here I will eat my hat (not literally of course). It is actually improbable based on my readings but stranger things have happened.
The MAD HATTER…………
Silver’s strength is growing and looks like it wants to go higher despite the look of the last few price candles…
Actually it does look like it wants to go higher. Amazing what a difference a few days make. If the dollar does not bounce off 94 today then I am getting the hell out of the way because metals will probably be going up.
Crap…looks like the dollar might lose its last line of support.
If you look at the US Dollar chart over the last year you see the following troughs that are close to where we are currently.
Going from more recent to backwards in time they are:
93.62, 93.83, 94.19, 92.52, 93.30, 93.15…….
So this 92.52 – 94.19 range has been the bottom for USD. Will it hold this time?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87762871466
The USD just got down to 93.75 for reference to the 92.52-94.19 zone of trough support over the last year, so we are right in the middle of that range at present.
OK.
But when I am talking about support it with reference to a pattern that suggested the dollar could rise. Below a certain level that is invalidated and out of the question. As it stands now there remains a possibility that the dollar could still recover and rise higher but I am a little less sure of that outcome than I was just a few days back.
There are nations dumping the dollar. Have been since 2010?
Even Saudi is moving to accepting Yuan and Ruble.
Gotta be less demand by now.
An interesting thought, these 28 missing 911 pages show up and implicate Saudi, they are dumping the dollar and the Americans find their scapegoat.
The 500 day EMA continues to cap silver:gold but probably not for much longer…
It’s been several years since silver has been this strong relative to gold. The daily chart (above) is overbought but the weekly chart shows plenty of room for a lot more upside…
The Fed’s sole purpose is to keep the stock market pumped up and they have no clue as to how to run or control the economy. They have to keep it pumped for their club members-the top 1% and elite while giving the impression that they are doing something for regular folks like helping create jobs. They only thing they control is interest rates and they can’t even adjust rates as their hands are tied behind their back to satisfy the big banks and wall street.
Well well well the BOJ disappointed!
Holy Shit!!!!
Was that a 1000 point drop in the Nikkei? Ouch. Gold hardly budge though as the Yen catapulted over 2% higher. What the hell is going on anyway? Are all the algo relationships suddenly broken?
Coffee and sugar moved though. Is this what it has come too? Ha!!!
The Japanese fiscal policies are getting a bit nutty.
Japanese stocks drop as central bank disappoints on stimulus
Originally published April 27, 2016 at 10:15 pm Updated April 27, 2016 at 11:28 pm
Just woke up to see that the Nikkei charts looks like one of those roller coaster rides from Six Flags – down to 14,900ish at one point, then up to 17,000ish. Crazy.
That does not look like a stable financial system.
This was well-timed to rescue the yen’s weekly candle…
You are telling me.
What is your take on the Canadian dollar Matthew? Odds of it topping this week or next possible? Maybe it does not break .80? I am having to use a monthly chart now to pick up a reversal pivot but none look very promising yet.
I don’t have an opinion on when it might top but it does look like it’s going higher – not a popular view as far as know.
Looking at the price action versus the MACD since March 18th on the daily chart, we can see that price continued higher despite what should have been a corrective period. This is bullish to me and points to even more upside in the short term. There is no reason to bet against it yet based on this chart (that can change quickly, of course).
Man, I knew I should have booked my Canadian hotel stays back in Jan/Feb while they were on sale due to the weak Loonie. 😉
The move up in the Loonie has just been insane, and I’ll admit I didn’t see a move of this strength or duration in the cards at the beginning of the year in the Canadian Dollar.
Then again, Oil has been on an absolute tear the last 2 months and that has had a big influence on the CAD.
The Loonie bottomed three weeks before oil did…
Agree Matthew. I am glad you pointed that out. It is the Canadian dollar that leads oil and not the other way around. And that is how commodities can be made to behave through the use of currencies.
OMG!….now I am sounding like Gary Savage!
The Loonie may have moved first in the recent past, but Oil is a GLOBAL marketplace and is priced in Petro Dollars, so Canada’s Dollar is not moving this commodity.
Ha ha ha!! Good one Excelsior.
“We have generated a – P E R F E C T – Double Daily Bearish Reversal which is very rare”. ~~ Martin Armstrong.
OK, if there is anyone out there who can translate Armstrongese and tell me what he means by that I would appreciate it. Is Martin saying that there is a reversal from the prior bear pattern (eg, silver has just turned bullish) or is he saying that the recent strong rising pattern has created a reversing pattern that is now bearish?
I wish I understood that guy better.
Silver Warning — Armstrong Economics
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/silver/silver-warning/
I suspect he is saying silver is about to drop. He did use the word “warning”. And if gold cannot budge an inch on a MAJOR Yen movement then that is also a worry for the gold longs.
Actually that;s not exactly true. Gold moved up better than ten dollars but then lost most of it right away. Very curious.
Other than finishing well off the day’s high, there is little sign of weakness on the daily chart. Martins words could easily cause a selloff but his followers just might become the short fuel that silver needs to blast higher.
What I was wondering is what does that terminology mean? Do you know? I don’t think Martin is saying anything to get his “followers” to buy or sell contrary to to the market so not sure what you mean by that.
Why would he send his subscribers in the wrong direction? That makes no sense at all.
Widely followed, well respected people can be so influential that contrarians can do well by betting against their calls (and their sheep). It doesn’t matter if their intentions are good or not. Being popular is all it takes.
With that said, it does make sense that he might want to use his legendary reputation to keep the herd out as long as possible. If he and his friends are as bullish as I am, then they might want to keep the bull healthy by keeping the herd from piling-on.
OK…but I still don’t know what his term “daily bearish reversal” means. It sounds like it means silver will fall but Martins wording is not always what you think so I don’t assume anything. it could mean a reversal from what was a bearish set up.
Whatever…the dollar looks to have lost support. Not good for me.
Actually 93.60 would be the last line in the sand. Not quite there (yet).
Check out this chart on the US Dollar I also posted this up above.
It shows a range of the last 6 troughs of: 93.62, 93.83, 94.19, 92.52, 93.30, 93.15…….
So this 92.52 – 94.19 range has been the support for USD. Will it hold this time?
The USD just got down to 93.75 for reference to the 92.52-94.19 zone of trough support over the last year, so we are right in the middle of that range at present.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87762871466
Also….in April the 50 day EMA went down through the 200 day EMA. That’s not usually good.
Bird, yes, Martin means silver will fall.
Thanks. I am a little dough brained when I read his stuff.
Well that did not last long.
We only just learned about the fascination with commodity trading in China this last week and the party is already over!!!! Man, nobody blows a bubble like those Chinese housewives.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/25/20160427_commvolume1.jpg
Need to keep an eye on that as I don’t think the Chinese housewives have got into gold yet.
Maybe after the next drop in gold?
Don’t their husbands shower them with gold offerings just before the wedding?
Gold needs to close above the bear market 382 Fibonacci fan line. The last time it did that was in 2012 but the current move has been stronger and is unlikely to fail afterward.
NEW GOLD DELIVERS 2016 FIRST QUARTER PRODUCTION AT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COSTS
Coeur Reports First Quarter 2016 Results
Detour Gold Reports First Quarter 2016 Results
Goldcorp Reports First Quarter 2016 Results
Royal Gold Reports a 26% Revenue Increase in Its Third Fiscal Quarter
Lundin Mining First Quarter Results
AuRico Metals Reports 2016 First Quarter Results
Silver stock (Silver Standard Resources) swings up
4/27/2016 – BNN
“Stocks of Silver Standard Resources, a Vancouver-based mining company, continues to swing upwards. Paul Benson, President and CEO with Silver Standard Resources joins BNN to talk about the operation and production plans for the Marigold mine and Pirquitas mine.”
[they also discuss the Claude Resources takeover by SSRI]
After last week’s high volume break above the 100 week moving average, silver looks golden on the weekly chart.
“silver looks golden” ….. good one.
Gold is outperforming silver tonight and I expect that to continue, to at least some degree, until gold catches up a little. Some will probably consider it a bearish sign but that would be a mistake. On the weekly chart, silver has the clear advantage but, aside from the very short term, it has the clear advantage on the daily chart, too.
I think certain gold juniors are about to act like the silver juniors have for the last few months.
I’m thinking the same thing about a few gold juniors. They may make a move.
As for Silver it does look nice on the weekly. Here’s a chart I piggy-backed off yours above:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77998722321
Gold’s silver lining can be seen on this weekly chart. Now that the 10 week MA is above the 150 week MA, for the first time in three years, I think moves up will start to stick.
Do you think Pure Gold is overbought at present levels?
After hitting .55 last week, it pulled back 25% to .41 so it is no longer overbought by some measures like the RSI. On the weekly chart it remains very overbought but can clearly go much higher quickly if gold goes up. It is a picture of strength. Note the Stochastics.
Daily:
Meant to say, note the WEEKLY stochastics:
Man look at that ADX. Very good call a while back on your position in Pure Gold.
Well done.
Jordan Roy-Byrne: Biggest Risk For Gold Investors Is To Not Be Invested
BY COLLIN KETTELL ON APRIL 24, 2016
http://palisaderadio.com/jordan-roy-byrne-biggest-risk-for-gold-investors-is-to-not-be-invested/
I’m only 20% invested in my ideal metals miners at this time, so maybe I need to adjust my thesis a bit….. climbing the wall of worry……. I may do a little shopping and take that up to a 25-33% allocation.
I am zero percent invested but always willing to change sides if the market goes north! 🙂
Well, this week I was expecting a selloff in the metals and miners, a bouncing dollar, and falling commodities and Oil. The Fed garble-de-gook has weakened the dollar, and the metals look to be consolidating where they could run higher, versus putting in what I though was a topping pattern the last 2 weeks. Instead of pulling back Oil has shrugged off the bad news and continued to run higher, taking the Loonie with it.
Personally, I’m keeping a very open mind on how things may play out because everything seems to be in limbo, and most of the pundits or news agencies are surprised by these movements as well (big surprise right? ha! )
Seriously though, they were not anticipating the huge steel bids and steel rebar bids from the Chinese bubble you’ve been discussing lately, or the rise in Copper last week, or the strong Yen & Loonie or weak US Dollar, or the move in Oil despite the fundamentals, or the buoyancy in the Gold & Silver space.
I’m feeling a bit overrun with too many data points, conflicting charts, indicators pointing in both directions, and have just taken a step back this week and decided, when one is undecided, some times the best decision is no decision.
However, after listening to Jordan in that interview, looking at some of the PM charts, checking in on dozens and dozens of miners on my watchlists, and looking at my own miners……. I feel I may have made an error in trimming back my exposure as much as I have. The selloff I was expecting doesn’t seem to want to come in the miners, so if they look like they are taking back off, I may add to my positions and throw on a few new positions as well. For now I’m waiting to see how things go when April rolls over into May in almost every sector. I think the new monthly charts in early May will paint a better picture of what is to come.
Confusing is right. We got more left hand pitches this week than is normal. You might be right….sometimes its better to just sit back and do nothing until the smoke clears.
Attack of the zombie miners
4/27/2016 – BNN – Featuring John Kaiser
…They have infiltrated the TSX-Venture Exchange and according to John Kaiser, Founder and Publisher of the Kaiser Research Online, there are more to come. Zombie mining companies are Canadian listed mining companies on the Venture Exchange, with negative working capital. Kaiser has been following this phenomenon for years and dives into the issue on BNN.
Silver stock (Silver Standard Resources) swings up
4/27/2016 – BNN
“Stocks of Silver Standard Resources, a Vancouver-based mining company, continues to swing upwards. Paul Benson, President and CEO with Silver Standard Resources joins BNN to talk about the operation and production plans for the Marigold mine and Pirquitas mine.”
[they also discuss the Claude Resources takeover by SSRI]
NICE POP on S&G…………….comments out of China, ..banks are in trouble, and the Chinese house wife is running to dollars and gold.
Simon and Garfunkle?
Does this stock exchange look like it is going to rise of fall? (see link below)
It matters because European exchanges move roughly in sympathy with US markets but for some odd reason the ES50 is much easier to read to get a feel for what is happening in the S&P.
I have often wondered why exactly and my only good conclusion is that there is less direct interventions into the daily market gyrations so the charts are clearer. Maybe it is because the market activity over there is more rule bound….maybe its because there is no *secret* buying of stocks by the ECB!!
Who the hell knows why. But the technical indicators are just better so when in doubt just pop up the ES50 and it helps break the tie when you can’t decide what to do next or there is too much conflicting information on the S&P.
Anyway, getting back to the point……just note for today that the most recent move since mid April is a right-translated peak coming off the April low and secondly, that the April low was a right hand shoulder on an inverse head and shoulders pattern(the head was in February).
None of this is visible on the S&P or the DOW. There is a crude analog on the NASDAQ.
My point is you can trade US markets with some success on longer term charts by using the more obvious European technical patterns. Check it out for yourself and then decide….
Are stock markets about to rise or fall? You might just be surprised!
EuroStoxx50 Weekly Chart
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=w1
FUNNY , BUT NOT FUNNY………….VENEZUELA runs out of money to PRINT money…..zh
Maybe we get the final bottom in oil once Venezuela has totally bankrupted and turned over all its fields to the international oil cartels or the government there has been replaced with one that is more cooperative with US interests.
Or maybe a deal is struck with the leadership that guarantees their status much as the Kings and Princes of Saudi Arabia were assured a perpetual rule and plenty of weapons in exchange for a petro-dollar deal?
This is not some crazy whacked idea either.
Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia. It has more proven reserves than Canada. It has more liquid black stuff in the ground than Russia too by a long mile. It has so much oil at such a good price and is so near to the US that its inconceivable any other nation might one day control it for their own benefit.
And everybody wants a piece of it. So would it really come as a surprise that the crash in crude oil orchestrated by Saudi Arabia is not at the behest of the US and its allies in order to bring the Maduro government to heel? Maybe even to turn over the current power structure and replace them all?
Perhaps this oil crash has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia and its conflict with Iran at all. Nor does it have anything to do with the preposterous reasoning offered that the Saudis are protecting market share or trying to put US frackers out of business.
If you wanted Venezuelan oil you might just have to crash oil in order to crash the government there. Gaining cooperation can come at a high price. Could this be what we are seeing at the deep state level?
And in the process, this current flood of oil production at very depressed prices might just be the indirect means to how you ensure the US Dollar remains the franca lingua of the worlds reserve currencies and that oil pricing remains in US dollars thus ensuring continued dominance and the global hegemony of the dollar.
How long before we see petrodollar recycling take on a whole new meaning?
This might even be more funny……….The us mint……prints the Venezuelan currency.
De La Rue……is owed $71million for printing……..
The USA……is in the same shape…….It cost the mint to 2cents to make a penny
That country could easily sink into anarchy and violence the way things are going. It is just a matter of time before the government is overturned whether by elections or other less predictable events. It is really a disaster down there now.
Yep……….I would have to agree.
Even the Greek situation is not looking good, failure to make loan payment, and no more money coming unless they do……….nor the Turkish economy.., tourism is kaput
ALL the negatives in the Macro are making silver and gold the” go to” currency.
If you were one of the men or women behind the throne Jerry, and you knew that a great many countries in the world would face defaults and possibly serious social discord, would it not be obvious to work with what is inevitable anyway into a strategy to increase your power base and influence?
I happen to think so.
To me it cannot be entirely a coincidence that the one country that is suffering most from this oil price debacle also happens to be the country who has the largest proven reserves ever discovered on planet Earth.
Platinum looking good……..
Birdman. Have you exited your DUST trade or still holding on?
Holding. Its a little in the red but no worries (yet). I bought in low enough its just a matter of waiting. I think May will be key a month and some kind of correction is inevitable so its just day by day watching for now.
There are legitimate worries on my side though. That shock rise in the Yen lat night almost scared the pants off me but gold hardly budged. I thought that was kind of curious.
Biggus, I realize the bulls are all screeching at the top of their lungs that metals and miners will go a lot higher and that its going to happen soon. They are so convincing that even I worry some days. But I bought that trade after careful reasoning and an examination of charts so I don’t feel it is a bad bet or in serious danger. The market can go against me for awhile but if my essential idea remains valid then the trade will eventually prevail.
On a weekly chart, that pattern is still clearly a head and shoulders set-up. It does not amount to much either. Like a stinger on the end of a Scorpions tail and not more. These things are kind of funny. A year from now you might look back on that chart and wonder how in Sam’s hell the H&S was not plainly obvious at the time or why you could get so confused by all the noise from the bull camp.
But that H&S is still there.
Gold on a weekly futures chart — Finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
Bird, no one is more bullish than me overall, but the last thing I am sure of is that the sector will go screeching higher before correcting. I think it can, but the merits of the bear case are obvious short term.
Notice that gold continues to have trouble at 1258 (the 233 week EMA) like I pointed out two weeks ago.
I had no idea you felt that way. Thanks for pointing it out. I honestly thought you were still entirely entranced with the idea miners would keep rising just about any time now. In any case I was not referring to your prior comments. I read quite a few other gold and silver sites. The bullish case for metals is overwhelmingly the lead story but it is mostly noise right now as it has come (not so curiously) at the end of a terrific price rise.
It is the classic behavior of the herd and people who don’t seem to be able to independently read charts nor understand dynamics of how markets cycle up and down. I used to follow some of those guys years ago but learned the hard way I had to start doing my own research and think for myself.
Like you, I don’t take counsel from those guys anymore. It has been liberating to say the least.
Longer term, I am completely entranced 🙂 but a daily chart correction (that is, one that lasts for days or weeks but not months) would not surprise me. If we are seeing a top that lasts for months, then my expectations were definitely wrong.
yes, I am holding as well…………….Armstrong is also indicating bearish scenarios fir gold and silver………..gold cycles are usually maximum 16 weeks and we are right there from the January low…
You must be a subscriber to know that.
yes…although he is extremely difficult to understand at the best of times
The oscillators are staring to cross to the downside on a daily level in both gold and silver. Today produced the highest daily closing for silver, but it failed to elect the Daily Bullish at 1733. Given the fact we also exceeded 3 Weekly Bullish Reversals last week but FAILED to close above them on Friday was another warning that the market may be unable to sustain the rally much longer.
The two primary targets are 1775 and 1849 just beneath last year’s high of 1850. Without exceeding last year’s high, there is nothing to get excited about just yet. Now, we have generated a perfect set of Daily Bearish Reversals at 1684.5. This is a rare event for to accomplish such a feat is by no means easy. This now warns that if silver fails to make new highs this week and turns down closing below 1684.5, we may indeed see a collapse back to retest the 1525 zone.
CAUTION is extremely warranted at this time.
ditto……on the “extremely difficult”…reminds me of Greenspan
funny OOTB…..CCF.
Thanks. Don’t get yourself in trouble printing out proprietary material though. I would have done this trade no matter what Marty said. On the issue of the head and shoulders pattern on gold btw….it is actually quite a large pattern viewed from a daily chart level.
Some people are now stating that what we are actually seeing there is sideways trading that is taking place and that a continuation of the price rise is therefore inevitable. I am in disagreement with that thinking.
On the contrary, what traders should be more concerned about is that the larger that pattern grows the steeper and deeper the eventual decline. And I think this one stands the chance of a complete retrace back to the start.
That is the reason I pointed out the obviousness of the H&S on the weekly chart. It is nothing for the bulls to be celebrating because it is so damned obvious. H&S patterns are among the most reliable of all patterns that technicians have at their disposal.
Take a step back and just look at it clinically. Does that look like it will break out anytime soon?
Hahahaha!
Weekly jobless claims up 9000………
Looks like USD support at 93.60 is going to hold after all. Whew!
This might sound dumb….but I am looking for the 30 year note to fall to somewhere in the 157 to 157.50 region before it reverses direction and heads higher. That could happen in the next ten trading days at which point we will see some kind of stock market correction.
Wow, 132 posts post but not a single word from the Reverend Archdeacon.
Maybe he is still in bed!
The 100 day crossed the 200 day on silver.
The Loonie is finally overbought again but is showing no sign of backing off…
Just had to take 1/2 off(4000 shares) the table with Silvercrest Metals@ 750% gain.
Nice, that beats my IPT!
When you get to 90 RSI, it’s a must gain time.
Well IPT is only 87.5 on the weekly, so I’m good. 😉
Seriously though, look at the strength displayed by those indicators. (!)
The daily chart sports a more modest 76.3 RSI and looks just as strong.
I’ve sold 48% of the original stake at this point but still have six figures in it. So there will be a significant drawdown in my future at some point. The current price will be seen as dirt cheap in the future so I’m going to hold more than enough to matter.
Matthew, with your drive & perspective, you’ll see personally 20-100 baggers these coming years. I’ve had a 36 bagger with Aurelian, a 30 bagger with Minefinders.
Whatever you think about, you bring about
Whatever you focus on, grows.
Wow, those are spectacular wins. I’ve had quite a few 10+++ baggers but no 30s. I agree about the potential in this cycle. It is superbular (superb+spectacular).
Matthew, that Aurelian buyout was so long ago 2004-6, it actually was a 72 bagger, not 32.
I think it was more like 100 for those that bought the low (.40 to $40+ I think).
Matthew, thanks for all your insight, and links!
Who really expected the Fed to do anything?