A lot to talk about in today’s market wrap
Today we have Chris Temple and Doc with us for the market wrap. We start off with the nice upward moves in gold and silver. Next is oil and a focus on the US markets. The discussion then switches to if investors are paying attention to fundamentals. We hope you all enjoy the comments today.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Silver stock (Silver Standard Resources) swings up
4/27/2016 – BNN
“Stocks of Silver Standard Resources, a Vancouver-based mining company, continues to swing upwards. Paul Benson, President and CEO with Silver Standard Resources joins BNN to talk about the operation and production plans for the Marigold mine and Pirquitas mine.”
[they also discuss the Claude Resources takeover by SSRI]
Thanks for the link Excelsior.
I thought since many (including myself) were past or current investors in Claude, that they may like to hear the CEO of Silver Standard Resources discuss the merger.
Ever Upward!
Ex, did you see what New Legacy did today!
No. Did they get taken out?
Wow. Yes up over 25%. Very nice.
I bet it had a lot to do with Barrick’s confidence in them as a partner, and the fact that the Tocqueville Gold Fund just took a large position on Tuesday.
________________________________________________________________________
NuLegacy Gold Corporation: Major Gold Fund Acquires Equity Position
Tocqueville Gold Fund acquires 19.5 million shares of NuLegacy Gold
Marketwired NuLegacy Gold Corporation
April 26, 2016 6:00 AM
RENO, NEVADA–(Marketwired – Apr 26, 2016) – NuLegacy Gold Corporation (TSX VENTURE: NUG)(NULGF on the OTC) reports that on April 19, 2016 the Tocqueville Gold Fund acquired 19.5 million shares of NuLegacy Gold at C$.20/share through an open market transaction.
I believe it is just a matter of time before they merge. Barrick’s going to let them do the heavy lifting with the drilling, but if something comes of it will likely scoop them up.
Also – OceanaGold has a nice stake in NuLegacy and they’ve been in acquisition mode lately, so maybe they will purchase them.
Good point Marty!
Gold miners still in throttle up. They might not correct. Might just keep going. I am back in DUST trying to average out for a 50% loss so I can move over to commission free Robinhood to recoup.
Oil topped and dollar index bottomed.Inversely correlated.Now watch oil going down and dx going up.Technicals dont lie not like politicians and those dirt balls in wall street aka white collar thieves.
As I mentioned on the KER editorial featuring Rick A. today, if that was the top at $46.10 then he called it to the penny. I added to my short Oil position when it looked like it was topping at $46.03 but should have waited for Rick’s target. It doesn’t really matter because it pulled back down from there for the rest of the day.
We’ll still need to watch to see if that was an intermediate top in Oil today, but at least it was a solid call on a short term resistance point from the Rickster.
Balderdash. The US Dollar is crapping out and does look like it’s heading lower.
As a result, Oil is now up in the overseas trading to $46.25. Still, Rick’s target did hold as an initial resistance point, and was still a good call. The wimpy King Dollar is being dethroned, and the commodities and PMs are on the rise.
It looks like I’m going to be in trouble in the morning and may have to limit the loss in the pre-markets. Man I hate a losing trade, but if a trade goes sour, the best policy is honesty, and taking corrective action. 🙁
There is still pretty respectable support at .93 Shad and a couple nearby pivot points. Don’t forget that post you wrote yesterday about the dollar because I think your idea was sound.
Something is up. Markets are just looking for a reason to correct. European indices are suggestive so we shall see what transpires if the EuroStoxx drops below 3000 today.
This is true. There is still a bunch of support in the .93 range for the US Dollar, and maybe it will just take until next week for things to get going, but the greenback has been taking out lower and longer duration moving averages, and it is difficult to see a reason why the buck will rally. I’ve been anticipating a bounce all week now in the dollar, but it just continues to sink further, and as it does it is boosting the metals and the commodities, so it has me wrong-footed.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit …….
My assumptions run along different lines Shad. First, I think we are very near the top of this metals and miners cycle. Secondly, if that is true then it suggests the dollar will bounce off support sometime in the next few trading days (if not today).
What I do not think will happen is that gold and silver will be breaking out and soaring higher all of a sudden. That part makes no sense but I have been proven wrong before.
Lets hope this is not on of those times!
You can see where the gold stocks unshackled themselves against the gold volatility index in the last few weeks:
Hello Platinum………….$1051………….up $25
Hello PGM stocks…..
PGM Stocks – EFS – ETNs Symbol Last Price % Chg
ANGLO PLATINUM LTD AGPPF $27.90 3.33%
ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM LTD AGPPY $4.50 -0.66%
AQUARIUS PLATINUM LTD AQPBF $0.18 0.00%
ATLATSA RES CORP ATLRF $0.05 7.38%
EASTERN PLATINUM LTD ELRFF $0.71 -2.99%
IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS LTD IMPUY $3.96 2.86%
IVANHOE MINES LTD IVPAF $0.81 2.71%
JUBILEE PLATINUM PLC JUBPF $0.06 0.00%
KENMARE RESOURCES LTD KMRPF $0.00 0.00%
LARGO RESOURCES LTD LGORF $0.40 3.39%
LONMIN PLC LNMIF $1.00 0.00%
MMC NORILSK NICKEL PJSC NILSY $15.00 0.62%
NKWE PLATINUM LTD NKWEF $0.04 0.00%
NORTHAM PLATINUM PROPERTY LTD NMPNF $3.23 0.00%
NORTH AMERN PALLADIUM LTD PALDF $4.17 3.10%
PHYSICAL PALLADIUM SHARES PALL $59.90 1.85%
PANORAMIC RESOURCES LTD PANRF $0.09 0.00%
IPATH BLMBRG PLATINUM SUBINDEX TR ETN PGM $22.72 5.77%
PLATINUM GROUP METALS LIMITED PLG $3.28 0.61%
POLYMET MINING CORPORATION PLM $0.91 -2.37%
NOVX21 INC PORMF $0.02 0.00%
PHYSICAL PLATINUM SHARES PPLT $101.25 2.49%
E-TRACS UBS LONG PLATINUM PTM $11.29 3.29%
SIBANYE GOLD LIMITED SBGL $14.91 4.48%
SPROTT PHYSICAL PLATINUM & PALLADIUM TRS SPPP $7.12 2.15%
STILLWATER MINING COMPANY SWC $12.35 4.66%
WELLGREEN PLATINUM LTD WGPLF $0.23 -0.78%
WESTERN AREAS NL WNARF $1.60 0.00%
ZKB PALLADIUM CORPORATION ZKBPF $177.35 0.00%
I still like ….Stillwater…………..
Nice number for the large hedgefunds………I think
Yes, Stillwater is the most liquid and one of only a few N. American PGM stocks.
I’m still smitten with Platinum Group Metals, Polymet, and Wellgreen Platinum also.
In the near future I’ll also be buying Ivanhoe Mines, Largo Resources, and Eastern Platinum.
Wellgreen…….looks interesting………
Ivanhoe …also, looks interesting.
Yes sir – we discussed them a bit in December. I’ve mentioned them about a dozen times on KER over the last year or so. Here’s a blast from the past…..
______________________________________________________________________
On December 1, 2015 at 3:08 pm,
Excelsior says:
For those not familiar with Wellgreen Platinum, it is one of the few N. American companies in the PGM & Nickel space that has a very interesting story developing.
They have a number of exploration targets, where over the next 6 months they’ll have 6 drills going, and they’ll be working on their Pre-Feasibility study. It will be interesting to track their success.
http://www.wellgreenplatinum.com/pdf/Wellgreen_Platinum_Corporate_Presentation.pdf
On December 1, 2015 at 3:26 pm,
Frank from moscow CCF says:
thanks for the info…………
On December 1, 2015 at 4:00 pm,
Excelsior says:
2015 PEA HIGHLIGHTS
100% owned WellgreenPGM-Nickel Project —Yukon Territory, Canada
2015 PEA average annual production (first 16 years):
•208,880 ounces of 3E (42% Pt, 51% Pd and 7% Au)
•73 million pounds of nickel
•55 million pounds of copper
•Potential to add up to 30 years with additional open pit mining from existing Mineral Resources
•Strip ratio: 1:1 for first 5 year starter pits, 0.75:1 Life of Mine
•Grade first 5 years: 2.5 g/t Pt Eqor 0.65% Ni Eq[0.32% Ni, 0.31% Cu, 0.43g/t Pt, 0.35g/t Pd, 0.09g/t Au]; First 16 years of operation: 1.9 g/t Pt Eqor 0.51% Ni Eq[0.28% Ni, 0.18% Cu, 0.29 g/t Pt, 0.29g/t Pd, 0.05g/t Au]
•Milling starts at 25,000 tpdfor five years, then increases to 50,000 tpdfor 20 years
•Base case would produce Ni, Cu & PGM concentrates using conventional sulphide flotation, which would be shipped year-round via existing deep sea ports in southern Alaska
•Initial Capex: $CAD586M (includes a $100M contingency)
•Lowest quartile all-in sustaining costs on co-product and by-product basis
I also posted this little summary in March:
On March 4, 2016 at 6:59 pm,
Excelsior says:
Another PGM play with a large Nickel credit is Wellgreen Platinum. They’ve had some changes to their management team and their share price has absolutely tanked, but fundamentally, they have an amazing world-class ore body, and they’ve had exploration results that are mind-blowing.
About Wellgreen Platinum
Wellgreen Platinum is a Canadian mining exploration and development company focused on the active advancement of its 100% owned Wellgreen platinum group metals (PGM) and nickel project. Located in the Yukon Territory of Canada, the 2015 PEA demonstrated that the Wellgreen PGM and nickel project has the potential to become a large, low cost, open pit producer of platinum, palladium, gold, nickel, and copper. The Wellgreen property is accessible from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to year-round deep sea ports in southern Alaska.
The Company is led by a management team with a track record of successful large-scale project discovery, development, financing and operation. Our vision is to create value for our shareholders through development of the Wellgreen deposit into a leading North American PGM and nickel producer.
http://www.wellgreenplatinum.com/pdf/Wellgreen_Platinum_Corporate_Presentation.pdf
On March 27, 2016 at 6:15 pm,
Excelsior says:
I just did a Rick Rule binge watch from YouTube on Friday night and was reminded in one of his presentations just how world class the assets of Ivanhoe Mines are for the PGMs, Copper, and Zinc. I believe that when commodities pull back this will be one of my top Base Metal picks for a longer term time horizon.
Corporate Presentation Ivanhoe Mines:
http://s2.q4cdn.com/485819848/files/doc_presentations/2016/SMT-Corp-Pres-March-9-2016.pdf
On April 12, 2016 at 6:30 am,
Excelsior says:
“Ivanhoe Mines (OTCPK:IVPAF) and its JV partner Zijin Mining (OTCPK:ZIJMF) seem confident with their latest base metals discovery in the DRC and have decided to throw more money faster at the Kakula discovery area at their Kamoa project. The sometimes-larger-than-life-CEO Mr. Robert Friedland himself has taken it upon himself to announce a goal of completing 25,000 meters of additional drilling on the property this year.”
I guess that is why they are on my radar list……….You are a gentleman and a scholar , and all your EX tra hard work is appreciated.
Pete & Matthew also discussed Ivanhoe briefly:
_________________________________________________________________________
On April 19, 2016 at 11:13 pm,
Pete says:
Matthew,your charts are always much appreciated,i bought some IVN.TO Dec 2015,do you think that was the low,or could we test those lows again later this year.
On April 20, 2016 at 6:11 am,
Matthew says:
Hi Pete, I believe that IVN.TO and the sector in general have bottomed and will not retest the lows. We are sure to get scary corrections from time to time but I do not think the first one is going to happen just yet.
Ivanhoe Mines looks great on the important weekly chart and is likely to add to its recent gains.
Disclosure: I have no position in IVN.TO
I like the location of Wellpoint, and the LONG TERM out look of Ivanhoe….
I also sent this little ditty to Billy the Exterminator this last Weekend Show when he brought up Platinum miners:
On April 24, 2016 at 3:35 pm,
Excelsior says:
Ivanhoe Mines has a 3 main projects but one is a substantial PGM property. I have Ivanhoe Mines in with my Base Metals stocks, but 1/3 of their assets are PGM related, so I felt it was worth mentioning.
Also Ivanhoe Mines is one of Rick Rule’s long time favorites because of the quality of their assets.
Here’s a quick blurb and a link to their corporate presentation for those not familiar with Ivanhoe Mines:
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is a Canada-based mineral exploration and development company, whose principal properties are located in Africa. The Company is engaged in the exploration within the Central African Copperbelt and the Bushveld Complex. The Company’s projects include Kamoa Project, Platreef Project and Kipushi Project. The Company’s Kamoa Project is a copper deposit located in the Central African Copperbelt, in Katanga Province, DRC. The Company’s Platreef Project is a PGE, gold, nickel and copper deposit located on the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex, in South Africa. The Company’s Kipushi Project is underground zinc and copper mine in the Central African Copperbelt, in Katanga Province, DRC. The Company also holds interests in mineral properties in the DRC and Gabon, including a land package of approximately 1,600 square kilometers in the Central African Copperbelt.
________________________________________________________________________
Ivanhoe Mines – Corporate Presentation:
http://www.ivanhoemines.com/assets/docs/ppt/presentation-april-20-2016.pdf
Correction….WELLGREEN……….I was thinking about Abbott Labs and St. Jude Hosp, when writing……..sorry
I got a little side tracked on the weekend show……..with one of my rants……so I kind of missed some info.
Thanks OOTB. Yes the deposit for Wellgreen has been “Well” understood for decades, but it was originally only worked up with a feasibility study for the Nickel & Copper a long time ago. The new direction was incorporating the Platinum, Palladium, and Gold into the mix, and it is quite stunning.
Ivanhoe is more of a development company, but they have world class PGM, Copper/Zinc, and Gold deposits. They got lost in the shuffle for years, but are finally making some progress on getting their mines and plants built, and I expect them to grow substantially over the next few years.
Cheers!
OOTB – funny on the Wellpoint – Abbott Labs and St. Jude Hosp….
Yes, the weekend shows are so dense, it is easy to miss entire threads. It is exhausting to keep up with all the posts.
Have a good evening
Cheers………………
FRIDAY…………….1072……….PLATINUM ON THE MOVE
Below is Holters rebuttal to Bob M.’s rebuttal to Holters original article.
My response to Bob Moriarty
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My response to Bob Moriarty
By Bill Holter
In response to my article yesterday The Chances Of A COMEX Default… (Public Article), Bob Moriarty decided to respond and attack me personally in this article. He claims me to be a “GURU” (an insult according to him), a fool, a bad writer with poor grammatical skills (I agree), with poor logic …and a liar. To start, calling someone a “liar” is a very big leap because it means there is an “intent to deceive” as opposed to just being wrong or even stupid. Moriarty says I “feed people’s fantasies” to entice them to subscribe to our newsletter which is now one month old. I wonder had I written the article over a month ago when all of my work was public what he would have claimed my motives to be? Many have read my work since 2007 at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/ and dozens of other sites, does anyone see a shift in my logic since those days in order “fool subscribers”?
As for my grammatical skills, I agree, they suck! People do not read my work to make sure whether proper tense or punctuation is correct, they read it for the logic. I try to take complicated subjects and break them down so the average person can understand what is happening. The logic in this case is there are several hundred ounces of gold/silver represented by paper contracts but backed by only one ounce. Put simply, COMEX is a fraud. A call on this contractual metal cannot be met because the metal simply does not exist. I believe when the “call” for delivery comes, COMEX will be forced to declare force majeure and settle with cash. As I asked in the article, is this a default or is it not? In the real world it will make no difference at all whether it is “legally” a default or not, “practically” IT IS! In the real world the prices of gold and silver will have exploded and the “cash” so generously provided by COMEX to “settle” will not purchase the ounces you thought it would. In essence, while gold and silver supplies go into hiding, you will be left holding a pile of devaluing and worthless dollars that will not “buy” what you were promised.
If you want to be “technical”, here are several passages from COMEX rules:
Section 702 of the rules states in part:
“In the event a clearing member fails to perform its delivery obligations to the Clearing House, such failure may be deemed a default pursuant to Rule 802.”
Section 714 of the rules states in part:
“A failure by a clearing member carrying a short futures position to tender a Delivery Notice on or before the time specified by the Clearing House on the last day on which such notice is permitted shall be deemed a violation of this Rule, except that the President of the Clearing House may, for good cause, extend the time to present such notice. Unexcused failure to make delivery shall be deemed an act detrimental to the interest or welfare of the Exchange. In addition to any penalties imposed as provided in Chapter 4, the Clearing House Risk Committee shall determine and assess the damages incurred by the buyer.”
Section 802 of the rules states in part:
“1. Default by Clearing Member
If a clearing member of CME, CBOT, NYMEX , COMEX, or an OTC Clearing Member, (i) fails promptly to discharge any obligation to the Clearing House or (ii) becomes subject to any bankruptcy, reorganization, arrangement, insolvency, moratorium, or liquidation proceedings, or other similar proceedings under U.S. federal or state bankruptcy laws or other applicable law, the Clearing House may declare such clearing member to be in default. For purposes of this Rule 802, each default by a clearing member will be considered a separate default event, provided that if a clearing member has been declared in default, subsequent failures to pay by such defaulting clearing member shall not be considered separate default events unless and until the original default has been fully resolved and such clearing member has been restored to good standing.”
The obvious question is this, if COMEX uses the word “default” in their own legal language then how is it impossible to ever occur? Would they really address an impossibility? While these rules pertain to individual members, what happens collectively were the longs to demand delivery of non existent metal? What will it be called when collectively the members cannot perform and deliver? “Default(s)” as in “plural” or just one grand default?
Further, Mr. Moriarty wrote “If Mr. Holter and Ted Butler want instead to make an argument that since the short position is so large you will never be able to take delivery because there won’t be any silver, they can say that. Butler did in 2001 and managed to pick the absolute bottom of silver in real terms in 5000 years. Not only was there a lot of silver, it was at a low. There was no shortage then, there is no shortage now.” I would ask this, if far more “paper” silver has been sold than actually exists, isn’t this a “shortage” of real metal in and of itself? Buyers have “paid” for silver that doesn’t even exist. This aids in suppressing price because the paper was used as a “relief valve” to divert real demand into fake supply. Is this not a scam? This by the way is “manipulation” pure and simple, something Moriarty denies. Deutsche Bank has graciously now moved what was “conspiracy theory” into the category of FACT!
After discussions with the CFTC, Harvey Organ has told me “the CFTC insists cash settlement is a no no, gold or ‘equivalent’ must be delivered for settlement”. As a side note, I find it quite odd COMEX which trades in 100 ounce gold bars continually reports “.000” (triple zero) movements which is a statistical impossibility. They have also been reporting many movements and adjustments that are divisible by 32.15 indicating these are kilo bars. It is also odd because the 100 ounce bars are only 99.5 fine while kilo bars are 99.99 fine, how is this accounted for if kilo bars are used to settle? Something fishy here?
Mention of “naked shorting” definitely needs mentioning because there certainly IS such a thing. One needs look no further than COMEX itself. What exactly are the contracts sold over and above available metal? Or look at shorts in various stocks, there have been times where more stock was sold short than authorized and issued. What would you call this? “Naked shorts” are the reason for the old saying “he who sells what isn’t his’n, buys it back or goes to prison”.
As for fake bars of gold, they have already intermittently shown up at this point. Rob Kirby is cited in this article saying 6,000 400 ounce bars were discovered in China. The New York Post reported on fake gold in New York followed by more fake gold found in New York. As I see it, when the call for delivery comes, either fake bars, no bars or cash will be the only options available.
When it comes to derivatives, Mr. Moriarty wrote “I only know of three people who seem to understand derivatives. That would be Adam Hamilton, me, and a guy named Jim Sinclair”. He followed later with “Maybe Mr. Holter could get someone to introduce him to Jim Sinclair. Sinclair knows who does and doesn’t understand derivatives. He also knows about commodities and how they cannot default. I don’t think he would dream of charging people $119 a year just to feed people’s fantasies.” Isn’t this interesting? I am not sure I understand, at the beginning of his piece he acknowledges Jim Sinclair as my partner but now someone “should introduce us”? And …there are only three people in the world that he knows of who understand derivatives …and one of them is my partner Jim Sinclair? I’m pretty sure the feeling is not mutual on Jim’s part, he wrote me prior to my first article written
“Bill, I dismissed Moriarty for poor knowledge many years back. His insistence derivatives net out to zero was evidence of real world ignorance. Denial of notional value as total true value is warped logic. Notional value will bcome full value at that very moment in time they are called on to perform. As long as derivatives have no need to perform they remain unimportant. As you have written, what is a contract worth that cannot perform? COMEX comes immediately to mind. Ry, Jim”
I must confess, I wrote poorly and incorrectly when writing “I do want to point out, this is the same man who said a derivatives blowup can never happen.” I should have included “because of ‘notional’ value”. For this I apologize publicly. Failing to include “because of notional value” is the main point to where we disagree. This is where he and Jim Sinclair vehemently disagree. We believe notional value when markets become stressed will become real and TOTAL VALUE. Jim and I believe too much “notional value” is exactly what will cause a de facto default on the COMEX with gold and silver. You see, the notional value of all the futures contracts, the puts and calls, and OTC derivatives simply dwarf COMEX inventories. The derivatives on gold and silver dwarf ALL THE METALS EVER MINED IN ALL OF HISTORY FOR THAT MATTER! THIS is where we disagree. Notional values will ultimately be the root cause of cross party defaults in EVERYTHING …INCLUDING COMEX GOLD AND SILVER!
I am not sure I get it, while talking about markets AND DERIVATIVES blowing up, Moriarty believes none of this can or will happen because of notional value? These derivatives that will blow up are all paper contracts based on stocks, bonds and currencies but not commodities nor silver or gold because those members and exchanges cannot default? I would suggest this, if an exchange settled with bananas instead of copper, that would be a default. Just as if COMEX settled gold or silver with dollars? Are not fiat dollars and physical precious metals the exact opposites of each other? Who wants dollars if they were expecting gold? Technically, under a situation of force majeure, settling in dollars may not be a legal default (though COMEX itself says it is in their own rules)… it is however a real world and de facto default settling in the exact opposite currency to what you were “betting” on as a speculator. Man up and call a spade a spade Bob!
To finish, I would like to address the most egregious personal attack Mr. Moriarty levelled against me. He called me a liar. As he obviously did not know Jim Sinclair and I are partners, he may not have known I was a stockbroker for 23 years and a branch manager for 12 of those. In a highly litigious business world, I worked 23 years without ever an arbitration, lawsuit or any type of settlement. Of more pride, none of my brokers were ever involved in any type of arbitration, lawsuit or settlement. After the Dot Com bust, of the 711 branch offices at AG Edwards, less than one dozen offices were not litigated against. Mine was one of those! A “liar” cannot go 23 years while supervising others and doing business on a handshake and verbal order without being sued multiple times in multiple venues. I tell it as I see it, if you disagree then that is your option. Call me what you want, liar is cannot be one of them.
Mr. Moriarty may not like my spelling or grammar (my schoolteachers did not either!), he may not like or agree with my logic though I believe it is sound. He may believe whatever he would like to, it does not make him correct nor logical. I tried to take the high road with this and simply argue the logic, or lack of. I would hope Mr. Moriarty would extend the same courtesy in the future. Lastly, so sorry for the spelling and grammatical errors but in reality I don’t give a damn!
As an addendum, Jim Sinclair felt it necessary to chime in after reading the above:
“Mr. Moriarty and I had a serious disagreement extremely early in the recognition of the severe problems that derivatives and their financial interdependence threatened the financial community based on lack of full grasp of the impact of bankruptcy a complexity of contract law thereupon many years back. His insistence that derivatives net out to zero was correct in a theoretical and prefect world in which all parties to all derivatives performed as to what and when the contract called for. He even had a professor write an article to sustain his view. What they both missed was the critical financial factor and entirety of the problem OTC derivatives have landed us with in the trillions. His denial of notional value transmuting to total true value in default is under contract law simply untrue. Notional value will become full value at that moment in time they are called on to perform. If either party can’t come up with the huge funds then called for or physical gold, then bankruptcy of one party leads to the initial default. The danger lies should this default be of size to become systemic in nature. If either party to the Comex contract buyer or seller fails to perform according the varied contract stipulation the agreement under contract law, default occurs and the agreements in nominal value becoming real cash value which is an enormous financial swing. It is in the present discussion to recognize that default occurs at the point of non performance of the contract. All that Force Majeure does in the Comex contract is to outline a possible form of a solution to which there is no guarantee of
Under the logical outline by Bill of events you can anticipate the Comex contract will default by not being able to perform in the contract manner called for. As far as the called for remedy by the halt that Force Majeure it is also theoretical in a perfect world. This is exactly what Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers faced for the same reason which broke them both. Bill’s argument is totally correct in the real world of finance”
Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome bholter@hotmail.com
Bill Holter writes and is partnered with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration.
Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to management of paper assets. In retirement he and his family moved to Costa Rica where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. Bill was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.
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— Published: Thursday, 28 April 2016 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
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Bravo, Bravo!
NOTICED ………..BOB M…….is writing a book……….like he is the only one with a brain
I like Bob……
Some great additional comments and a reply by BILL HOLTER to the above, can be found at jsmineset……….Bob M. is called on the carpet…………. 🙂
We might need to rename the show “market crap” soon, hoping the market crashes.
I picked up 2k BP in the premarket 1.9% down at 33.24 and had a nice gain at $34 in a few hours. Came back from picking up a late lunch and the market shot down so I dumped at 33.50 at the end but my Vixy finally will help my account today by a nice increase.
good one Paul……..”market crap”………no disrespect to the presenters of course…..
Funny – Paul L. I wrote you when Oil was topping out, but you must have been at lunch. Yes, volatility had a nice jump this afternoon. April is about to roll over into May, and it is anticipated to be much more turbulent. Long volatility should be a nice insurance policy.
I am holding 5800 vixy shares and a good sized loss on them.
The month of May should cure that challenge.
The captain expects some turbulence up ahead, so keep your tray tables up and your seat belts fastened. Should cabin pressure change due to all the volatility, please secure your oxygen mask first before helping others.
We know you have choices when going long volatility and we thank you for flying VIXY…
Hilarious Shad. Who is the captain though? I’d like a word with that pilot.
You figure we get a hard landing in May? Seems about right to me. Longer term though we have to be in the stock market so a nice spring/summer correction would be very welcome and I suspect we get one so its out of the way before the elections.
With the governments of the world buying up the markets hand over fist and trying to socialize absolutely EVERY asset class it seems it does not matter what P/E ratios are anymore.
As Gary used to say “The Fed’s got your back”
And so does the BOJ, ECB, PBOC, Bank of Canada and all the rest. This is a crazy time we are heading into. Martin Armstrong called this perfectly when he said that we would sail into a time when assets would rise as the public became disenchanted with government.
We need to own real assets and income producing entities. That means there is going to be a trend from the public to private. But I am not sure how he could have foreseen that because no way did he know when he made the prediction that the Central Banks of the world would flat out attempt to own all major asset classes and all dent too.
This is INSANE!!!!!
Btw, I have a theory that we get a market correction in the second week of May once the 30 year hits 157 or thereabouts. I am not betting on it yet because this is still a work in progress but that’s my idea right now.
Yes I do believe May will be a time where people may lighten up exposure in the general markets. With the USD continuing to sink, and everything getting wonky in overseas stock markets, then a correction in mid-May, but with enough time to recover before the elections makes sense to me.
“Market crap”? How about “crap associated with life”?
The Dow closed below the 20 DMA on the B Bands for the first time in two and a half months. The Nasdaq closed below the 200 and 400 DMA. It looks quite certain that the conventional stocks are heading for a crash. Just wait until the Dow hits 17,125 , which is where the 200 and 600 are joined. That will be interesting!
Check out Inventus mining.
Thanks George. They used to be Ginguro Exploration Inc. until last year and currently have a JV with Endurance where they own 64.5% of the project. They recently brought Sprott in on the action.
____________________________________________________________________________
Inventus appoints Greg Gibson to Board of Directors and Sprott Mining Inc. as operator to manage the Pardo Joint Venture.
” Inventus Mining Corp. (TSX.V: IVS) is pleased to announce that Sprott Mining Inc. has agreed to act as operator to manage the Pardo Joint Venture between Mount Logan Resources Ltd. and Endurance Gold Corporation. Mount Logan is owned 100% by Inventus and owns 64.5 % of the Pardo JV with 35.5 % owned by Endurance.
As operator of the Pardo JV, Mount Logan has arranged with Sprott Mining to act on the company’s behalf to develop a comprehensive bulk sampling program for the Pardo JV property commencing in 2016.”
http://www.inventusmining.com/assets/docs/news/ivs-pr-mar1-2016.pdf
Trump gains wealthy , well educated voters…………..zerohedge……….
That would go along with the feelings of many of my friends, ootb.
You have to wonder what they’re well educated in if they believe Trump will change anything.
I think that you might be wrong on this one, Matthew! Time will certainly tell, but I do not think the he can beat Clinton.
Al, I didn’t say that he could beat Clinton. I just question what is meant by “well educated” in this context. Trump is clearly no worse than the other two but there is no reason to assume that he would be any better either. I hope he does win so that his vast fan base will get yet another lesson that will also conveniently be forgotten in time for the next show in four years.
It would be nice if gold could finish the week above fork resistance at 1285…
Thanks for the green arrows on the RSI. It is indeed interesting that despite how nice of a run Gold has had that is really still never got into overbought territory on the RSI on the weekly chart.
Yes, there’s a lot of room left to run higher but also notice that the RSI remained bullishly strong for the entire three month consolidation. That 60 level is to a bull market what the 40 level is to a bear market. That action is one of many clues that have indicated that more upside was probable. Here’s a four year version of that chart so you can compare the current look of all the indicators with that of the failed rally of 2012…
One more little note, that grey fork is really more important than the blue one that still contains the action since it was drawn based on weekly closes. So gold has been on surer footing than most have realized for a long time.
Thanks Matthew. There definitely is more room to run and on the weekly it is not overbought, and yes, the grey fork has offered good support.
Silver has 600 week MA resistance at 18.15 and 18.59…
I am happy to report that Silver just broke though the recent peak of $17.72 (currently at $17.78), and Gold is at $1279.10 (The moment of truth!)
If they continue on strong throughout the night then we are going to get the breakout in the metals.
So I can see Gold closing above fork Resistance at $1285 and I believe Silver could go the distance and make a run at the 200 day EMA at $19.13
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54033634004&a=426943004
My only hope is that the metals don’t hit these resistance zones and then get smacked down in overnight trading, but things look fairly positive at this point.
$1279.80 for Gold……gonna make it……gonna make it…………..
$17.83 for Silver. Shazzam!
The Little Engine that Could, Excelsior!
So what is happening with the commercial shorts in the future markets? Are they caving and covering or continuing to back more shorts against the specs? If so, how long can or will they hold on?
Well Gold got deflected down to $1275.60, so it didn’t make it through $1280 on the first attempt. That is to be expected really. That is why it is called overhead resistance. 🙂
However, I believe due to how strong the metals have been behaving lately, and since Silver already broke on through to the other side that Gold will make it through $1280 tonight. Will it just peep it’s head above water and then get swatted back down – nobody knows, but this is becoming fascinating…..
Yes, I belive that it is the start if something big.
I have some music to help Gold make it through $1280…..
THE DOORS – Break on through (to the other side) at KTLA-TV
Genius of a song, Excelsior!
Hi Silverdollar. I have no idea what the commerical shorts are up to or where the numbers are at present. Personally, I’ve considered everyone’s else’s opinions or articles reporting on the COT numbers, but I’ve mostly tuned it out and have been focused on the actual price action. While I think the COT report contains interesting data points to consider (n regards to Sentiment), and it has it’s merits, many people have been putting way too much emphasis on it. There are times where the markets just do their things, even with big institutional funds forcing their hand at times.
Yes, they do look positive at this point!
Yep. The metals are looking good as are the commodities. The US Dollar is looking bad.
Only a buck thirty to go on the June contract I’m watching.
Right from the beginning I have felt Trump was the man to beat, I have said so many times. Somebody with his business acumen will make him a great President. Hillary Clinton will be crushed by ” The Donald”, it will be a cakewalk for him. TRUMP DEFEATS CLINTON, I might as well get the newspaper headlines out of the way.DT
Canadians are good at seeing American political moves because our country is continually inundated with negative reporting on anti establishment politicians that you know it means the establishment is very worried about losing their “BIG CLUB”. DT
The Real Owners, George Carlin, ” THE BIG CLUB” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUaqFzZLxU
As usual, close to genius.
I do not support Mrs Clinton, but it will not NE anywhere near a cakewalk for Mr Trump.
Al, I think Jeff Deist has your ear, Deist is very articulate and educated but he is so much part of the establishment that he can’t see reality, many people who are very well informed and great thinkers are terrible decision makers. DT
1280 just got hit. For those who hope it goes up, and for those ( like me ) who hopes gold drops. For the love of God!
Hit 1280 and little bit down. Now what ? Waiting ? Next week?
Tell me some technicals guys. Macd,bb,Rsi, Ratio,Momentum,Ma averages, etc.
Gold needs to put in a good close above $1280. So far it went up and hit resistance and then retreated back. This is quite normal on a first attempt, and there were so many people with limit or stop orders there that would get triggered, that the dip back down makes sense. So far at 1 am central time Gold is still flat-lined around $1275-$1276.
The next time Gold tries for the $1280 level will be the test. Again, having breached $1280 for a few minutes is positive, but putting in a definitive close above $1280 tomorrow would be putting it on the bullish path to $1308.
Friday is also the end of a weekly and a monthly candle, so it is very important where things close tomorrow.
10% down shorting gold, still holding it.
If you’re short gold, I hope you’re very long silver and the miners.
There is massive upside ahead for the silver-gold ratio regardless of short term overbought readings.
TLT:GLD, bonds are not the place to be…
$USB:$GOLD
It’s gonna be an oh sh-t smack down for the bulls , or an oh sh-t rally for the bears. These next few days will tell the story…
The dollar continues to act as anticipated. Here’s a chart I put up over a month ago…
ETF UUP
http://schrts.co/iklCfM
ASX listed miners are all flying higher today (except for Perseus)
In case you missed it, here’s today’s press release:
Yes, thanks but I was aware of the press release.
Despite its fall in price today its still up 58+% from my average in price.
Cheers.
I trimmed back my Perseus position earlier in the week, but still have a small position on. Overall, I’m a fan, but I wasn’t sure Gold was going to rally so I took partial profits. It was a defensive move, but cost me some cheddar in retrospect. (especially with gold rallying at present). I may have to add a bit back at a higher price depending on how things move forward in the morning.
Well, based on looking at everything again for the last hour or two, the very weak dollar has me convinced that I’ve really messed up in trimming back my mining allocation and shorting Oil. Now that the move higher is accelerating in the PMs, and the dollar continues to nose-dive, then I clearly should have held on to all the miners. Oh well, I made my choice because I thought the miners would pull back when the dollar bounced. I may just have to average back into some of them at higher prices, as many will close with nice weekly and monthly candles.
Matthew and Skeeta – you guys had the right idea. Congrats to you both, as you’ll likely make a fortune tomorrow. I’ll only make a mini-profit, but it will only be a shadow of what it could have been, but I’ve caught most of the move up and will probably start swing trading a few more on the path to $1308 Gold and $18-$19 Silver.
Excelsior,
Its never been about making a fortune tomorrow?
For me its about making money over a much longer timeframe.
Whether you currently have short term gain or short term pain from your current positions really will not matter in the coming years.
I’ll be more concerned about getting out near a top than I am trying to get in at an exact bottom.
Cheers.
Thanks Skeeta. Of course you are correct. In the long term it will be quite a bull run. I am a short term swing trader, and sometimes a day trade a stock 2-4 times in one session, so even a week feels like a long time. Sometimes I get a bit myopic and focus only on the current move at hand. For example, I’ve had amazing gains just in 2016 in a number of sectors (Gold, Silver, Base Metals, Oil, Uranium, Lithium, and Agriculture), but I quickly forget what has happened focused on what may happen tomorrow.
From a larger time horizon, I do keep positions that I’ve had for years already in a few different sectors and it is just the size of my core positions that grow or shrink depending on if I’m adding or trimming. My point was simply that you and Matthew had the right idea holding and adding in late March/April, where I started trimming back the winners in late March and April. Since metals are breaking through key resistance today, (at a time where I expected them to start correcting) I just was tipping my hat to the buy and hold investors was all.
Cheers mate.
For those who decided to keep their Claude shares, SSRI looks like it’s just getting started…
Looks like oil is heading for $50+
Well Oil is cruising back up around the $46 mark again so that isn’t what I wanted to see. I was planning on a little follow through in the pullback in Oil into Friday, and thought Rick’s $46.10 mid-point pivot may hold. Regardless, WTI Oil is going to put in a very strong weekly candle tomorrow and that is a bullish movement.
The pathetically weak US dollar is just not helping my short Oil position, and I may have to bail on it. We’ll see how things go in the pre-market and morning trading. I know it is happening for technical reasons, but the fundamental backdrop is so divorced from the price action, that it is mind-boggling. You are correct that Oil is looking quite strong, despite common sense.
The resistance zone in Oil at $47.71-$48.36 made by prior peaks should cap this rally IMO, and I’ll get uber bearish again if oil if it gets up in that range. If that resistance zone breaks, then yeah, $50 Oil would be on the menu at that point. What a wacky world.
Darn it. Oil just broke up through to $46.15. I may be in hot water in the morning. 🙁
This worked out…
On April 12, 2016 at 1:58 pm,
Matthew says:
If a bounce is coming in the dollar, I think it will be unimpressive. It’s going lower.
I think the drop is about to accelerate.
If you look at the US Dollar chart over the last year you see the following troughs that are close to where we are currently.
Going from more recent to backwards in time they are:
93.62, 93.83, 94.19, 92.52, 93.30, 93.15…….
So this 92.52 – 94.19 range has been the bottom for USD, but if it breaks below 92.52, then there isn’t support again for a while.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87762871466
I agree with you though that the greenback has been very wimpy lately. This is boosting the Metals, Oil, and the commodities in general. The non-hike and blather from the Fed kept it soft, as did the very weak GDP growth at .5 % that was reported.
Really, even though I was expecting a bounce in the dollar up to the mid .96-.97 range, there doesn’t seem to be any stimulus that would get the dollar moving higher at this point.
I’ve been off track in Oil and the PMs, because I’ve been expecting a bounce in the dollar and it has cost me dearly in shorting Oil and trimming back my PM positions. You’re likely going to be correct about the dollar heading lower Matthew and I tip my hat to you for the good call. You are a wiser man and better at reading the markets than I am, so I should have just listened to you. Oh well, tomorrow is a new day.
The current low is uglier than the last lows if we look beyond the price level. The November retest of the March 2015 high came with an RSI of 65 rather than 88 while the MACD suffered a similar deterioration.
Now, looking at the lows, notice that the first plunge following the March top found support around the 34 week EMA while the next significant low (in August) found support at the 55 week EMA. Not only is the current support for the last three weeks down at the 89 week EMA but notice that the above MAs are now bearishly pointing down and crossing over the longer term MAs below. Also note that the MACD is below zero now and making new lows along with the RSI. This strength/momentum meltdown points to new price lows even if the bulls are allowed another little rally first. The ADX is also turning in favor of the bears. Nothing is 100%, but the odds do not favor the bulls at all.
The action in the silver juniors for the last several months also gave a clear, early warning that the dollar was going to continue down.
Action like this which was caused not by dumb money but smart money suggests positioning for something big – like maybe a currency crisis and/or collapsing bond markets.
Remember what Jeff Kern said months ago after his 1/25/16 major buy signal…
“I do “know” two things. First, this is a UNIQUE index pattern. Therefore, when you read analysts’ predictions based upon any bull markets since 1974, THIS ONE WILL BE DIFFERENT. It can simply go straight up in an extraordinary manner without a correction and then collapse…..
If USERX goes over the faded blue line first, the extremely long-term bullish scenario is so bullish and unique that it is “scary” for the financial system.”
———————-
This part needs to be stressed as it is part of the reason that so many observers blew it:
“Therefore, when you read analysts’ predictions based upon any bull markets since 1974, THIS ONE WILL BE DIFFERENT.”
Yes you are correct that the USD continues to break down to lower and longer term EMAs, (144 up to bat next). I’m finally coming around to the realization that dollar doesn’t look like it is going to bounce, and if it does, the move up will be muted.
I didn’t extrapolate out that the US Dollar was heading down from the move in the Silver Juniors because I don’t see the correlation between the dollar and silver juniors. Really think the greenback was in limbo and has been consolidating for a break up/down. The Fed not hiking and the terrible GDP growth sure didn’t give it any strength, and technically speaking, the dollar looks like it may continue it’s slide.
Well this could really be a boost for the metals in the short-mid term, so I’ll have suck it up and get back in the fight. Then when the miners and metals do top down the road, the correction will be worth getting out of the way of at that point. For now there will likely be more action to the upside and I’ll capture what I can.
Yeup – the Dollar is still heading down lower: USD 93.32 -0.44
Once again Matthew – I appreciate your research and analysis. Shoot, one of these days some of the information may actually make it into my thick skull. 😉
Nobody around here would call you thick-skulled, Shad. Don’t worry about that for a second. You seem to be a pretty bright lad to me. Look, we are all struggling with the markets and the curve balls never seem to end. We just cannot do anything by assumptions.
The technicals conflict as well. That’s what gets us in trouble if we over analyze.
About USERX that Matthew mentions…..yes, it is in a unique pattern but again, it is one of those charts that has NOT broken out to the upside yet. This is make or break time and even I will be reversing myself if this one does the unexpected and shoots higher.
For the moment it remains in a bear market technically. Just run your line across the tops of the peaks from August 2013 to the present and tell me what you see. (Please take the time to do this before you jump the gun and start adding new positions today of all days).
You do have time in my opinion to wait and see what Monday brings first. And do keep in mind new months can oftentimes bring new dramas and unexpected reversals.
So here is the USERX chart on a five year basis on Yahoo. We are right on the damned line today where that thing is concerned. This is it Shad! DECISION TIME. Will it break higher or will it break down. There cannot be an in-between with the action we have seen until now.
Happy hunting man. Just keep your cool because I think something is about to break.
US Global Investors Gold & Precious Metals (USERX) — Five Year Chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USERX+Interactive#{%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Thanks Birdman. I will need to mull things over in the morning, but I did look at the USERX chart and it is right at that neckline from 2013 and 2014 tops at present. If Gold closes tomorrow above $1280 then I do believe it is on the path to $1308, and thus the miners will be heading higher and will break out even further.
I’m tracking the movements of many of my favorite miners, and continuing to watch the mining positions I kept in place grow each day. My current position is that I did screw up by trimming most of them back substantially, and a few I sold out of completely.
If I can get in at the open in the pre-market trading, then I might be able to pick up a little momentum trade while I’m mulling things over for the mid-term. I’m not going all in or anything, but may cash in on the enthusiasm, because when most wake up to this move in the metals they will be like kids on Christmas morning and may get over-zealous. I have no qualms buying the pre-market and selling those shares back at lunch while I’m contemplating 😉
Really tomorrow’s close will be my focus as it is the end of the weekly and monthly candle. You brought up a great point though, that often, when one month rolls into the next, there are some wild swings, reallocation of assets, and book squaring adjustments. So while it may be a very strong weekly or monthly candle, things also could reverse in May suddenly, which is not a seasonally strong month for the metals or the general markets.
As for the line: “Just keep your cool because I think something is about to break.”
That is my nerves….they are about to break. I’m going to suit up with Precious Metals depends and prepare for a laundry drop tomorrow 🙂
Don’t sweat it man!
I sold mine too early too but still did ok. Its better than a poke in the eye with a dull stick as they say so I would not get the Cat-o-Nine tails out and start whipping yourself quite yet.
Don’t forget, most people missed 100% of this move and some still don’t know it even happened.
Anyway, I don’t assume anything. Maybe gold will go to Ricks 1306 number. Maybe not. Maybe silver will hit Armstrong’s 18.50 target before a correction starts and maybe not. That’s only another 5% additional move in any case so no worries as it pales compared to what has already gone before.
But you are right. The odds seem to favour a breakout on the charts although that still does not mean they will roar higher. Rather, it will indicate to us that a bull market is perhaps here again and that we should take note and buy seriously once the corrective move down is done.
So great news! We get to play this twice. 🙂
Here is another chart. It is GLDX and it also has still not broken out on the long chart. When it does along with the other indexes then that will attract a whole lot of fresh attention but I assume nothing until this day is done.
Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GLDX) on a Five Year Chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLDX+Interactive#{%22lineWidth%22:%222%22,%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Oooh oooh oooh.
Forgot to add the drama music for today…..Duhn….Duh-Duh…Duhh!
Yes those are good points and I should be thankful for the really great start to 2016, and if I miss a few percentage points to opportunity cost, it is not the end of the world. I just really enjoy maximizing gains, and dislike leaving money on the table.
Yes, if nothing else we are getting a stronger signal that this really is the new bull market developing, and that pullbacks should continue to be bought for more chances to win.
Thank you for the “drama music for today…..Duhn….Duh-Duh…Duhh!”
Very fitting.
No problem man.
I don’t think there is any guarantee those index’s break higher by the way. It is speculators who are gaming the trades right now and more than a few have already made the same observations I have about break-out levels.
They will trim going into the weekend even as the laggards and retail are finally jumping in with both feet to catch the wave (poor suckers). The most buying is at peaks….the most selling at lows. But it is WHO is doing the buying and selling we are concerned with.
At these levels I would want to be a seller (if I had not already unloaded that is)
Shad, if the dollar wasn’t heading for trouble, I think the gold and silver miners, especially the silver juniors, would have started this bull market with moves that were similar to the starts of past bull markets. Kerns warned about what other analyst might say because this start is much different and much more powerful. Even James Flanagan at Gann Global though the seniors would give back half their gains after a 25-30% move but they have now done triple that with out doing so.
Bird, Dr. Kern’s SKI system is unlike any other out there and does have anything to do with conventional technical analysis.
I was appropriately bullish at the lows but I don’t think anyone out there had a handle on what we were witnessing as early as Kern did. Who else thought that the miners would go straight up “in an extraordinary manner”? No one that I know of.
Ok, now I recall who you are talking about. He has been on the show twice in the past few years. Maybe Al can give him a call and see if he will come back. I do remember once looking into the SKI method but the notes have been lost long ago now.
A great perspective Matthew. Well I bought at the lows all through Dec and Jan, and even kept adding in early Feb, but started trimming in late March and throughout April. I caught most of the move in a number of stocks, but reduced my position size is all I was mentioning, because I was not expecting this large of a run.
You have had the right idea by holding steady, and have been clear about your reasons for holding and that this beginning move in the Baby Bull would be different than all the other counter-trend rallies we had experienced for years. I just was still not convinced we had “confirmed” we were in a new bull market yet, and when Gold consolidated so long and didn’t make it to $1308 and Silver didn’t make it above $18-$19 then I felt the move may be over and a correction may begin.
I was not convinced that the miners would keep moving up on their own merits if the metals were tanking and the dollar was rising, and now it is easy to dismiss the Fed not hiking, but in late March and early April, many still felt one of the 4 rate hikes may be on the table for late April, and the last few FOMC meetings have been preceded by a PM selloff.
In my view, a bouncing US Dollar would have pressured the metals and the energy sector, and eventually tipped the mining stocks back down as the metals retreated into May/June. Obviously the move the last week or so in the Dollar and the miners has blown that thesis out of the water.
I just wanted to tip my hat to you for holding through the noise and from your projections based on the weekly charts you have been analyzing. I didn’t share your enthusiasm over the last few weeks, and felt we were topping out in the miners, but trimming back by positions in many core holdings and even selling out completely from a few miners cost me greatly. I was just letting you know what a good job you do in charting, and joking/grieving that I should have heeded your advice was all.
Cheers mate!
Thanks Shad, I know you bought the lows too.
Btw, do you have an opinion about Golden Reign Resources?
Honestly I’ve never heard of them, but it looks like an exciting development play in Nicaragua. I’m still slightly concerned of the jurisdiction, because they had a few mine attacks in the past, but I believe in an area re-inventing itself and changing.
Modern day Nicaragua is very big on boosting their mineral resources, because I remember a few big editorial pieces touting B2Gold’s mine in Nicaragua as a game changer a few years back. I remember not buying B2Gold because of the risk I perceived, but apparently the people and politicians got back in stride with the miners. I don’t know of many other other companies working in Nicaragua other that B2Gold, Calibre Mining & Condor Gold. I’ve been watching Calibre and Condor with interest, so I’ll add Golden Reign to the mix.
It looks like they have a 1 million ounce resource with plans to do their build-out in the 2nd half of 2016, and production targeted for 2017. They have 2 permits and are waiting on 2 more. I like their business plan on growing revenues through production and to grow throw mine production organically.
They look like an interesting development company to keep an eye on for sure.
Thanks for bringing it up.
Thanks for the reply, Ex. I’m actually not worried about Nicaragua these days and I own GRR. It’s GRReat! Sorry.
The taste of Tony’s Frosted Flakes…..brings out the tiger in you. They’rrrrre GRReat!
What’s happened to the Archdeacon? I am starting to miss the daily barbs.
GOLD , Silver and Platinum looking good…………………
NY…….just does not like pms……………
Looks like metals are heading for a shooting star blow-off top by this action today.
Hope so……………
HUI………….looking good……….226
Looks like it broke out of the resistance trap its been living under.
I think it broke out several weeks ago………..as noted by some.
Not the technical I am watching Frank.
Are you talking longterm….weekly, daily…..?
My info….is from ZEAL REPORT……..MARCH 18,2016….HUI was at 180
GH………..has some great tips on the dust……on today’s podcast….
I mean GS………sorry.
DOW……….headed down………..the confidence is lost on the FED…the jig is up
or just closing the books for the month………..
For those that want the next producer in W. Africa (in the same footsteps of True Gold or Asanko Gold) take a look at Avnel Gold. They just got their permission to build their mine and will be producers in the not so distant future.
__________________________________________________________________________
Avnel Gold Receives Approval of ESIA for the Kalana Main Project
ST. PETER PORT, GUERNSEY–(Marketwired – April 29, 2016)
“We are delighted to have received approval of the ESIA for Kalana Main, which is a major milestone, as the project is now effectively ‘shovel ready’. We continue to advance the project with the goal of being in a position to consider a construction decision this year,” stated Mr. Howard Miller, Avnel’s CEO and Chairman and the Chairman of Société d’Exploitation des Mines d’Or de Kalana, S.A. (“SOMIKA”).
I am going to stay on the mainland……………. 🙂
Sinclair is having a heck of a problem with the govt. in Africa …..I think I will just wait and see what happens to him………… 🙂
I understand the hesitancy to invest in Africa, but W. Africa is doing light years better than S. Africa as far as mining, and doesn’t have all the labor issues and strife.
B2Gold, Randgold. Asanko, Endeavour Mining (who just acquired the new producer True Gold), the new producers Asanko, and Perseus who is in the process of acquiring Amara have all been doing quite well.
W. Africa has a hive of activity and development going on, and a number of the Gold mining success stories from 2015 and early 2016.
Avnel Gold (AVNZF) is just up next to bat as a producer is my only point. I’m a shareholder (so I am biased) but getting the permits to move forward with their mine is a big milestone for any company. Based on how companies are getting taken out in W. Africa, I believe this also puts Avnel Gold on the map as a takeout target and near term producer. Often times once a company develops their project to the point where they are “shovel ready” a larger company will sweep in and take them over so that they can develop the mine with a larger budget and more expertise.
Since Endeavour just bought True Gold, and Perseus just bought Amara, it would likely be Randgold or B2Gold that would buy Avnel Gold. Or there could be a Mid-Tier that wants to diversify into W. Africa that snatches them up.
Just speculation, but I’ve been on target in the W. African development in Burkina Faso, Mali, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Cote D’ Ivoire for the last year or so, and just thought I’d mention this development story.
Africa is definitely not without risk, but there are government risks, labor risks, tax risks, first nations risks, and environmental risks in almost every jurisdiction. W. Africa has a bit more going for it than other countries in the Central and Southern parts of the continent.
Cheers!
YOU the man…………… great info……… thanks…..DR. LIVINGSTON
Ha! Thanks OOTB……The Long…..The BOOT…The Claw….CCF…..From Moscow…..
GLDX broke out today too….but the day is not over yet.
Today is also the end of the WEEK and MONTH, so the close is very important for most TA
DITTO ON THE TA…………
GDXJ breakout too…
GDX broke out more than a week ago already….
USERX is close but not there yet…
Remember that you can’t see today’s action for USERX until after the close since it is a mutual fund but not an ETF.
Thank you for that.
Mathew thanks fo helping me stay in the PMs. Man what a ride this last week.
Even biggies like Goldcorp broke out of their funk. SSO IMG climbing nicely. Like I said way back these were long term trean changes and breakouts.
We are certainly in weird territory. While gold is just dancing these stocks flew. Whats this market trying to tell us??!
EVEYONE is calling for a major correction and that made sence a while and alot of gains ago so I dunno. Will pigs be slaughtered or are these just looking way ahead?
My brother in law sold the USERX in Dec and nobody I know that wanted to own the PMs gave up. Thats usually a long term bottom…..
You’re welcome Bill. I’m glad I might have helped a little.
GDXJ……….GH………has some great tips on today’s report
make that GS….
GOLD ………..$1287……LOOKING for $1307……….
How is the DUST doing……………..
DUST is almost exactly at Rick Ackermans buy number. That was 1.41 just going by memory and DUST is currently trading at 1.40 so we will see how the day closes. I am naturally underwater on this but nothing too serious yet.
Glad that you are doing ok,….
Not dead yet Jerry but I was a little early. Its a curse on my house I think. We will see what gives next week. Some interesting things are happening. Not least of which is crude turning down, the VIX jumping and markets softening up.
The dollar may just have hit a bottom here too even if it dropped a little more than I first anticipated. Should it turn back up next week this run in metals will come to an end. It is what I believe will happen but there could be drama involved if the indices keep sinking.
Today is Good Friday on the Orthodox Christian calendar. An end to the long period of fasting and beginning of this holiday period looking forward into spring. So Easter Sunday is the day after tomorrow on May 1st. A time of renewal and rebirth.
It may take in extra significant this year and I believe change is at hand.
Sorry Jerry, I was mistaken. Ricks mention on DUST was that it might be a buy at 1.24 if it started to make bullish impulsive legs and that is another 13 cents below where it is currently trading.
http://www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/DUST-would-become.jpg
No problem Bird…………..
Someone….said……..”.never use Dust for another three yrs”……..can not mention his name, ….but,GS
It depends where you buy at Jerry and it also depends on whether you are lucky enough to time the buy for a reversal. I mean to say, price matters and so does timing. I never like to hear when someone says to “never” do a certain trade but I would agree with him in principle there is danger in making some kinds of bets.
In the month of April alone JDUST (for example) has dropped from around 6.00 dollars all the way down to today’s low of 1.82 and as you will recall it was trading as high as 40.00 dollars on January 19th this year which is the day most of the miners took off like a rocket.
If you had bought it anywhere along its decline path you got hurt. In some cases you got absolutely killed. I have it as you know and it is underwater however the damage is modest and I look forward to a reversal during the next two weeks.
Fingers crossed of course!
But I would not advise this for anyone else and so I agree with Gary. Unless you are pretty sure what you are getting in too its best to avoid these until the smoke clears because you can go negative almost from the very day you buy them.
Gary has a pretty good video up today btw. I won’t link his site because I don’t want to make trouble but you know where its at Jerry. Worth your time. He makes some great points.
ditto, I mentioned above to you…about today’s video………
We may not catch the exact bottom…….but, we sure will not be late for the entire party………… 🙂
See time at 9:56 above………
Glad I didn’t buy DUST last week when it was $2.10…..now $1.40. I was thinking to buy it at sub .85 cents in a couple of weeks, but that might not happen now that things look like they are blowing off here. Tough call as always!
Good call Confused.
I thought Ricks number was pretty damned low when I first read it but it looks like he has once again made an excellent calculation and possibly even picked the exact bottom. Maybe the guys will ask him his outlook on that ETF today to see if he has an update.
good thought CONFUSED……….
SMF too. A trading range for a couple of months and a major breakout yesterday. Its one of my bellwethers. It had pointed the dir ction of the market in the past and this time lagged. Some that ran hard look tired and others are playing catchup.
Al you can delete the priors. Sorry about the name change.
Mathew thanks for helping me stay in the PMs. Man what a ride this last week. New more help 😉
Even biggies like Goldcorp broke out of their funk. SSO IMG climbing nicely. Like I said way back these were long term trend changes and breakouts.
We are certainly in weird territory. While gold is just dancing these stocks flew. Whats this market trying to tell us??!
EVERYONE is calling for a major correction and that made sense a while and a lot of gains ago so I dunno. Will pigs be slaughtered or are these just looking way ahead?
My brother in law sold the USERX in Dec and nobody I know that wanted to own the PMs gave up. Thats usually a long term bottom…..
SMF too. A trading range for a couple of months and a major breakout yesterday. Its one of my bellwethers. It had pointed the direction of the market in the past and this time lagged. Some that ran hard look tired and others are playing catch up.
Weldon today
1290 is a long term breakout…see if it holds. Its the weekend see if the rats jump ship…
It helps that this is also a weekly and monthly close. Next week could be a big one.
I figure gold will drop back below 1287 by the close but at this point who the hell really knows. With technical breakouts on all the major gold indexes looking confirmed that may just be the all-clear that this is indeed going to be a new bull market. If so I will join the club. Sorry to be a stick in the mud Matthew but I have my rules before climbing on board the bus. There is plenty of upside ahead if its a new bull market so no worries on that account although its doubtful we see another launch like this one since January. anyway, I am reserving judgement until early next week to see how the last of this spike plays out.
Good discipline Bird…
Guess I am a conservative at heart, Billy.
Even GFI is trying to join the party.
I prefer big slower movers if you are going to jump in…Less downside risk in case we finally take a mashing..
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1222943,1&cmd=show%5Bs354218427%5D&disp=E
Kinross is just redick. I was waiting for a pull back at 5…nope bye bye
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=K.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p82032113284&a=453824699&listNum=1
Wow – I hadn’t looked at Kinross in a while. Holy smokes!
And SMF longer term pushing past resistance..long time coming
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMF.TO&p=D&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p24221794038&listNum=1&a=354218427
Just a thought about stocks after a merger/takeover. Claude Res price is up over 72% pre takeover price. A nice gain waiting on an event. I learned that lesson when Minefinders was bought out years ago and appreciated 36+ % after the announcement.