There are warning signs for commodities and the US markets
Chris and Doc help us wrap up the markets today with a recap of the warning signs in a number of asset classes. A big consideration is if the US dollar is turning up and oil is going to move down.
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Bonzo, AGN may get a short term reprieve at these levels since it’s approaching and is right at the 200 week SMA and the 50 month SMA. IMO the reprieve won’t last and this stock is in a world of hurt. I believe it’ll break down further and this is a dead stock for weeks and months.
jon; I can sing but I don’t know about the dancing.
Frankie ……..YOUR’re BACK………..PEOPLE were wonder about you……..
Frankie, glad to hear you are ok………….
Thanks, Doc. It sure looks cheap to me. I bought some today@215, but may sell after reading your thoughts.
Oh Jeeze, he is back!
Hahaha! What we needed were more jokes about the Pope, Al.
Looks like Franky got deleted again.
Frankie and the pope………are on different pages……
Too many people are convineed that he is a kid playing with us
Doc,
Your mind has really changed on silver, so you think that it is heading down to the $15 area?
Lewis, I believe silver is going to fall but 15 dollars would be my worst case scenario. I’ll be able to tell more when gold corrects a little here. Gold will be my proxy to tell me performance of silver.
Thanks Doc.
Lewis, let me correct that—15.50 for silver would be my worse case scenario.
If that would be the case then back up the truck I would think.
It will be interesting to see how well the $17 and few cents resistance is defended.
I’ve sold some stock and plan on selling more at the open. I’m taking it on a technical case by case basis. Gold is not showing a huge breakdown pattern—yet. But some of these stocks are telling us gold will be under pressure. We’ll see. But you’re very correct—I plan on backing up the truck in the future as many of these stocks approach the 200 day and week SMAs.
I apologize for this provocative statement in advance, but…..
Mr. temple, I intensely dislike your use of the word fundamental because from you its use tends to malign those of us that use fundamental analysis, as opposed to chart-reading.
You say “there is no fundamental reason why the US Dollar should decline”.
Do you realize approximately $ 14 Trillon are held outside the US.? In Treasuries, Eurodollars,etc.
Of course, much of this is held as reserves, much is needed for trade, etc.
Are you aware: Algeria, Libya, Nigeria , Iran have all been reported as recently accepting RMB for oil?
While the petrodollar is clearly not yet dead, and is heavily defended by US military might, do you not think that the fundamental way of financing energy purchases might be changing?
Again Mr. Temple, you talked about fundamentals when talking about oil prices.
I personally believe your analysis to be flawed due to listening to the talking heads on CNBC. They are more parrots than analysts. They also tend to have an agenda.
Do you seriously believe that oil price is totally set by supply-demand costing without political considerations involved? (I don’t)
But I do believe the price is set by fundamentals. Knowing ALL the fundamentals is the time-consuming difficult task.
Very interesting arguments. I must say that they are very convincing.
If you add the theory from Jim Rickards regarding a C20 coordinated deprication of the dollar and the yuan that certainly doesn’t favour the dollar either.
Doc and Chris seem to be diverging in views – hope it does not end up like Trump versus Clinton 🙂
Listening to that talk Chris sounds far more bearish – time to get out of Dodge – than Doc is.
Guys, I am no guru but I can’t see how the USD will continue to fall against the Euro and the Pound in the coming 2 months. If anything, surely the USD will soon begin to rally strongly?
BOB…..I side with The Doc.
Bob UK, what would make you think Trump and Clinton really have diverging views?
Nor sure about “strongly”
This looks like a technical bounce, Bob…not a trend change for the dollar.
Whatever it is will likely be more than enough to push metals over the edge as it could go on for weeks. Secondly the Yen looks like it too is going to reverse down putting added pressure on gold.
Indeed, gold has taken the cue and fallen almost as soon as the Yen had a hiccup.
Third, the Canadian dollar has probably ended its extended run up and will begin a long correction back down. That is going to take energy and crude back to the lows. I am watching for CAD to break out of its lower trend channel to confirm that it will start a fresh leg down. We are pretty close this morning.
So the news is Yen down, Euro down, Loonie down and Dollar up.
It is a VERY negative set up for commodity markets and precious metals.
I really like Chris’s take about portfolio management. But he is correct. Most bulls won’t be selling miners easily as they prefer to hang on for even higher highs. Its classic behavior after a euphoric period and then there is all the justifications about not losing your position etc etc.
Guess it all depends on outlook. If you are very bullish the companies then a draw down won’t bother you. If you are like me on the other hand with a near-term negative outlook you would take all profit and re-enter again later.
The Yen was down half percent this morning and gold fell 10 dollars immediately. That should wake up a few guys who follow the correlation who will be selling into strength and bounces.
The last few Yen declines went for anywhere from 3 to 5 cents down and lasted at least a half month or better so that suggests gold could be falling for the better part of two weeks before we get the first bounce back.
The other thing is the AUD (Ozzie buck). It has broken down from its rising channel. That tells us something about both China and commodities so we need to pay attention. If the Canadian dollar, which is another of the major commodity currencies also breaks below its channel you can bet the outlook on precious metals and crude oil is going to turn very bearish very fast. I suspect that CAD will follwo AUD down as both have traded with a good correlation to one another for many months now. We are getting big warning flags of declines so we need to stay alert.
And if for no other reason at all…..the bullishness on crude oil right now is only exceeded by the bullishness on silver. That is to say it’s at a record historical high and the essential energy needed for a large retracement in price is present in spades.
Sentiment alone tells us we should be contrarian as this juncture.
We don’t even need to guess at such times which direction the market will take next. The problem as usual is timing that price reversal. As the old saw goes, the market can stay irrational longer than traders can stay solvent.
But make no mistake, there will be a large downward correction and given the severity of excess bullish expectations traders are exhibiting, it will as usual punish the largest number of people harshly just as it always does.
Because the majority can never win together. That is not how this game works.
After rereading that call I made the other day I want to reprint it here for all you guys because it was so damned good I think I have bested myself this time. This is a worthy read in my books and my conclusions are coming to pass.
Why I want to mention it again is because the trade is obviously still in play. Since April 27th the Australian dollar is down a total of 5% (one week) and does indeed appear to be leading the Canadian dollar. So this bears on crude.
Crude oil should now be taking the ride down-hill and judging by the looks of the futures that is what will come to pass. So if you are confused about what pushes oil prices look no further than these two currencies and that should clear the cobwebs out of your hat.
Here is that post of April 27th, 2016 (8 days ago)
——————————————————
On April 27, 2016 at 4:33 am,
Birdman says:
Now here is something that is REALLY interesting this morning. The Ozzie just took a 165 point face-plant off the high board (right out of the damned blue) and is now trading below .76 to the US Dollar.
So what?!! Who cares about that Birdman?
Well I will tell you cares. You do,and here’s why…
The Australian dollar lifted off at exactly the same time the Canadian dollar took flight in mid January and had flown so high it was just looking for any good reason to fall back to earth.
With news today of softer than expected inflation numbers Down Under and a growing realization that the new Chinese interest in commodities on the China exchange was just a bubble waiting to burst, traders took a deep breathe and dumped the AUD.
And THAT folks is perhaps as good a signal as you are going to get the the CAD is about to hit its own top and by inference Crude Oil will soon be tumbling back to reality and lining up with the fundamentals.
Recall that there is a VERY tight correlation between Canadian Dollars and WTI.
And reflect that CAD and AUD have traded upwards in near unison for the past three months. So keep a close eye on this today and watch for signs the Loonie is also about to top.
At this time Crude Oil is suffering from its highest level of long speculative positions ever(?) which as I noted the other day is a 180 degree turn from a few months back when it was at maximum spec shorts.
So don’t get caught on the wrong side of this thing this week. The way I see it we just got an early signal and the time has probably come to take profits on oil positions or get short Crude again because a reversal in the Loonie could come at any time.
This is only my opinion of course. The Loonie is not falling yet. I could also be totally nuts so don’t take my advice without checking the facts for yourselves because as I often repeat here…sometimes I get these trades wrong.
Just as an aside…..a few days back when the AUD took a big face plant the conclusion I immediately came to was that the Loonie (CAD) would follow as the two had been correlated for so many months. Then I wrote a note on this site to anyone who might hear that I thought it was a likely coming event.
I also asserted that it was telling us the top was in for crude oil if CAD followed the Ozzie down.
That was the right conclusion as it turns out and had anyone bet along those lines would already be making hay as the CAD is now down more than 280 points in the last 36 hours.
The total wait time between the AUD face plant and the CAD beginning to drop was not more than 3 trading days. So its just something about relationships to note if you like currencies and to keep in mind that odds are good CAD keeps dropping if the Australian dollar is actually the trail blazer now.
I only mention all this because I was pretty pleased with myself for identifying a great trade that had a positive heads-up warning in advance. Those are often not easy to find and some days it seems we are searching in the dark like blind people for good opportunities that have better than average odds of going our way.
In this case I played the idea by entering a short WTI trade that I suspect will work out very well as crude now falls back after a terrific tun up. I did not trade CAD directly although I wish I had but que sera….we can’t have it everything we want!!
Sounds like good tinnin again bubalooee.
I wonder why you dont trade currencies?
I really have no idea, but Rogers said some time ago, the real money was going to be in currencies.
Personally, I find PM miners challenging.
I do enjoy the thought processes tho.
Looks like your gold “tank” today is workin out.
Gotta give Mathew a little credit on his call a few days ago tho too.
Mathew was right at the time to leter ride for a bit.
Looks like your on track now tho.
Thanks, B, it’s nice of you to acknowledge anything I get right, considering.
Re: “Personally, I find PM miners challenging.”
They are always a challenge; anyone who says they’re not is doing it wrong! 😉
But that’s why the gains can be so rewarding.
Way too dangerous to trade currencies from here b. My connection is probably the worst you can imagine. I lost service altogether for most of February for example. I mean I had nothing at all and internet cafes were down too. On any given day I lose access for an hour or two several times so the high octane trades are simply out of the question. You can lose your shirt in a heartbeat with that stuff.
Credit where it is due Mathew. Was a good one and you were absolutely correct, out too early there cost some %s.
But, I generally like to sell at lows and buy at highs, the other way is to darn easy. lol
I can see how some good coin can be made trading, harder on the Canadian market tho.
The American has huge advantages and opportunities compared to Canadian.
I need the raging bull, think Ive mentioned that a time or two. lol
Ya, thats actually huge Bird (obviously) same thing happens to me.
That risk isnt mentioned often enough imo.
Ive said it lots, not only do we have risk with the mines management countries etc, but also the brokers,banks, net, etc.
Its risky, which is why Im after the 10+ baggers, small %s to me isnt worth the risk as I see it.
These little losses of in and outs, to me those are antes.
Relating to my card playing of course.
I just bought Bobs book, maybe he can “smarten” me up. lol
I don’t know about you b, but I think crude is going to have quite a significant decline in he next few months. That was why I blithered so much in the earlier posts. What means tinnin?
Let us know if its a good read. I may pick up a copy on your recommendation.
lol, you forgot Yogi bear?
Bubalooee was his sidekick, Yogi used to say “good tinin bubalooee” (good thinking)
Bob just posted on 321 about his book again, he has some comments, probly a good read but I have a hunch you will already be familiar with what he writes.
I just havnt read anything for awhile, and I could use a little obvious pointed out to me.
As for oil tanking, you remember the commentaters that were saying “no more floor?”
Some were saying $10 could come into play, think they were talkin about alberta crude with that tho.
All I know is the world is awash in oil right now.
What Im waiting to see is the consequences of Russia, Iran accepting other currencies than the american dollar.
Ha! Sorry but no bb. I don’t know anything at all about the bear. We didn’t have comics in my house as a kid. There was a lot of material on the occult though, secret societies and how to locate water by dousing. My Mother was very big into astrology, tarot and channeling. Crazy place to grow up I assure you.
JDST up 20% today…..DUST up 17%…..more to come I hope.
Not so crazy Bird, my mother read tea leaves, followed her brother thruought the 2nd war. Very accurate.
Had my first tarrot deck by about 12 I think, been thru the i ching, palm reading, (very interesting as its documented) settled with Rune stones, dont use them much anymore.
There is definately something to that stuff tho, gives differant perspectives at looking at situations.
I sorta relate them all as blind people looking at the elephant.
As I say, its been awhile now, you see Newtons copy of the philosophers stone recipe?
What a find that was.
CFS…You’re on a roll go for it……
BTW. I agree with what you just wrote….
& always remember there is no manipulation of anything…….HaHa.
Bullish (reversal) daily candle for the USD Index today, in my book.
Best to all,
LPG
I agree with you LPG.
But it was oversold yesterday, started out with the momentum of yesterday and then reversed. I do not know (I.e. have not been able to ascertain) the cause for the reversal yet.
It could be buying of dollars by some emerging market country, or some manipulation by the exchange stabilization fund, or some other reason……I’m looking into various data right now.
My personal feeling is that the dollar will rise, because it dropped too quickly, but I do not believe it will rise either very much or very long ( days, rather than weeks).
Agree LPG
LPG a bullish reversal hammer is forming on the weekly dx.
I probably just woke up in one of those moods today, but despite my Ipad repeatedly trying to correct me if I type too slowly, and my making typos if I type too quickly, I believe words have meaning.
I like Bob M a lot because he is accurate on market moves, some of you may have missed this article that calls for a temporary correction in gold and silver followed by a move higher. This is the link read it and see what you think, I know where I stand. DThttp://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042816.html
Here is the link that you can click on: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042816.html
Thanks for the link DT.
Best,
LPG
Parabolic rises do not correct by going sideways.
I agree with Mr. Moriarty and you DT on this.
I said I agreed with Bird, on Thursday or Friday that gold has risen too quickly and had to go sideways or down, in the short-term.
However, I see nothing in the fundamentals to drive it seriously down for very long.
(I guess it depepends on one’s definition of seriously.)
We all know paper shorting of gold is only limited by physical loss of gold, and thus really just restricted more than limited, but I am encouraged to see the COMEX appear to be limited in naked shorting today.
That comment o f COMEX naked shorting applied more to silver, which I watch closely.
There was a slight indication of gold shorting on the COMEX.
Sorry CFS, put my comment in the wrong place. Parabolic moves in any asset class do not correct by moving sideways. We have to get past that idea because it is hope-based rather than a market reality. Expect a substantial drop in price for both metals and miners with a few dead cat bounces along the way back down. This should go on for some months (3 or 4 at least) and keep the devoted hanging on all the way down as they await that big recovery and moonshot higher.
There has been a 300 point rally without any correction. Somehow the market gets supported by mysterious buyers pushing up the futures. We are likely not going below 2000. I had originally expected a correction to around 1950 to 1930.
I wonder if the battle-line on the US Dollar index is going to be drawn and defended at 93 or is that just a round number effect.
The scary Chinese recruiting video for its 2.29 million strong military contains the words…approx in the rap part:
Even if a bullet passes through my chest
My mission remains carved in my heart
Brothers, let’s follow this path
[Roar! Roar! Roar! Roar!]
Roar with animal spirit
Look to the bravest general of them all
Walk from here toward the site of combat
Even if a bullet passes through my chest
My mission remains carved in my heart
From the center to the borders
Let’s go to war, let’s fight to win
When we follow the commands of the party
The country honors our guardianship
The rising head of a loyal patriot
If I don’t bear the burden, who else will?
Ands with
Kill. Kill. Kill.
And ends with. Kill. Kill. Kill.
You think the US could beat China conventionally by war.?
You think nuclear war is anything other than lose-lose?
And yet the US provokes Russia via NATO. And China provokes the US in the S. China Sea and by crypto-crimes.
I THINK ……..TRUMP JUST WON INDIANA…………..AND BERNIE is neck and neck with HILLY……..50%/50%
Bernie………….ahead of HILLY………….50.9%……Silly hilly might lose this one.
Bernie…………..52%…….zh, heck , we could have told zerohedge the news….. lol
BERNIE WINS………INDIANA………..
I have bought energy stocks where the natural gas play is much better than here in North America where it has to be shipped as LNG. You get the benefit without the shipping and liquification price. Energy stocks are alive and well if you purchase wisely. DT
The Donald is on a roll, there is nothing more important for Americans than to back a winner, something they haven’t done for a long time! DT
Mark my words: Trump cannot win the general election.
I have known 5th graders with better knowledge and intellect than Trumphe, clearly does not care about the US Constitution.
I fear that Supreme Court appointments will destroy any tattered remnants that remain of the Constitution.
Goebels was clearly correct about propaganda.
The MSM in the US is controlled by Demcrats and liberal-thinking, and it will dictate not only who is nominated, but who will ultimately win.
Sanders is leading HILLY………she is going to have a hard time winning the general …jmo……………………CRUZ JUST DOPED OUT………….
Doped………..DROPPED………
CFS, I’m on all your same pages. Spelling :Goebbels.
Gold is still looking good.
lOOKS like a series of cup and handles………with break outs……….
I believe Cruz will drop out of the nomination race.
CRUZ JUST DROPPED OUT…………………
The trap door opened up and he either had to step aside or down he went. I can’t believe de admitted the obvious. DT
Yes, ….he should have given up a long time ago………….
He did
He Cruz, is a constitutional conservative, honest pragmatist.
It is not the constitution………..but the corruption behind the judicial system….it is broken…….
The judges appointed by corrupt people in govt………presidents the people do not elect, and no doing the will of the people. The constitution has not been taught , and few know what is going on. The sheeple are lead by a few that corrupt every inch of the govt……..state, and federal……..Revolving doors for PROFIT , putting society in bondage to a few.
Ft. Mac is burning, I wonder if thats going to affect the oil price.
Must be in fireworks for TRUMP……………
I beat Drudge by about five minutes!
I’m getting slow in my analysis!
You were slow from day one, CFS. Now watch Trump go after Hillary, don’t tell me he will lose. DT
Hilly is in trouble…………everything is going to come out………..email, everything Billy …………….JUST NOW BERNIE 53%
DT, I told you to mark my words for a reason. Now I’m not going to inanely repeat those.
We will know in November.
TRUMP AT THIS very moment…………….IS after HILLY……..JOBs…NAFTA, which billy signed……..lookout Hilly…..those without JOBS are upset.
I doubt if the fire inFt. McMurray will have Much impact on price.
I hope no one dies in the dangerous fire and pray winds will drop tonight.
Bernie is going to wear Hilly out………….Hilly is in trouble, if she did not have the SUPER delegates , this race would look a lot different.
I don’t think Hillary is not going to win because enough super-delegates will change their votes.
(Due to MSM attacks on her.)
The establishment…….needs Hilly………to many debts to pay to the corrupt. MSN, is in the pocket of the corrupt.
I would be surprised.
Of course it would, Jerry!
Remove the double negative above.
The professor , correcting the professor………be careful not to answer yourself…lol, btw ….hope you are enjoying your vacation in Europe………
Jesus must have said no to Ted Cruz. DT
Jesus said……….TED , I do not like a liars………and playing a Christian card, when love is not included…………you lose………….period end of story.
liars to liar…………
Trump was still tweeting “lying Ted this, and lying Ted, that…..” even after Trump was declared winner in Indiana.
The media in Indiana was parroting Trump persistently, without analysis……the media wins!
I would admit……..TRUMP is saying anything to get a vote.
Trump is most like the Trojan horse………people know something is wrong, but, can not identify the problem.
Al, I want you to get Jeff Deist on your show this weekend and he can tell us how Hillary will beat “The Donald”, that will be one very interesting conversation that I will be surprised if he commits himself. I want to here his rhetoric. DT
AGAIN!
Rhetoric, DT? Jeff’s opinion can hardly be considered rhetoric.
I still can’t believe that you and so many tens of millions have fallen for the Trump and those who were Ron Paul supporters should be ashamed of themselves. They obviously did not understand much of what RP had to say. The same goes for all the Bernie fans who once supported RP. They’re all clueless.
Matthew, everyone who doesn’t accept your political viewpoint is clueless, I don’t know why you discuss politics you can’t stand the subject, I think you should stick to what you are good at the stock market. I know what I said will probably make you mad but you should learn to get over that to, you are beginning to sound negative like Birdman. DT
Matthew, clueless are people who don’t have an alternative, just a gripe to hang their hat on. DT
I have been positive all day DT! 🙂 Don’t you read my posts?
No, DT, clueless are the masses who’ve done exactly no work to figure out the truth yet firmly believe that their default positions (usually provided for them by their mommy and daddy) are infallible, just as they are. So they are arrogant as well as clueless.
Facts are important, DT, and the masses have done little to discover AND understand them before speaking or acting. This is why the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Here are two facts that I am sure you’ve dismissed without investigation: Lincoln was a complete tyrant and FDR’s policies, on a net basis, were economically unsound and morally questionable (to say the least).
If the herd would take your advice and stick to topics that they know something about, less than 20% of the population would have anything to say about politics, economics and countless other subjects.
It’s not PC to say so, but uneducated opinions should not automatically be respected.
Matthew, you can’t force other people to accept your opinions because you think you are right, that will never happen, but you can try. If you can’t figure that out, you are clueless. DT
DT, I’m stating my views just like you are. No one knows better than I do that the vast majority of people are going to believe what suits them and discard the rest.
“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened.” – Winston Churchill
Matthew, I wish you would stop quoting other famous men, like Harry Truman, H L Mencken, and now Winston Churchill, really it reminds me of somebody you meet in the grocery store that is a name dropper. All I want to have is a discussion about how you feel not about how you think others who are gone would support your thinking. DT
It’s hardly like name-dropping, DT. I’ll quote anyone if they say something worth quoting; including the grocery store clerk.
Don’T disagre, Matthew.
Yeah Matthew. Stop disagreeing. 🙂
Trump brought out BOBBY KNIGHT………….and shows his expertise in marketing ….Hilly is going to have her hands full….Hilly is not going to win.
Bobby Knight has a very short temper and is intellect-limited……Reminds me a bit of Trump himself.
Ditto………….I agree…………..
Trump……….is a marketer………who really knows where we go from here.
I certainly do not agree with all he says……..
WE ARE AT A CROSSROAD……………….
go to going……..
delete
SANDERS………..WINS INDIANA……………….Hilly to bad…….loser
Just remember…………INDIANA use to be a sampling house for what people would accept in the way of products. People with common sense……..not bragging , just fact.
Many bus loads of illegals have been dumped in small towns in Indiana over the last five years.
Haven’t you noticed the change?
Japanese are being brought to Indiana , which can not speak English…….check out Columbus .., the children can not speak English and are beginning to strain the existing school system, another hidden benefit/tax job creation in the auto section.
The illegals have been in Indianapolis since 1987…….there were found at that time approx. 50,000 illegals in the city, estimate by Indianapolis police, maybe that is why, Indy is turning Democratic.
Trump exposes everyone! Hilbillary is toast!
President TRUMP!
Gary Savage bottom ticking with his “confirmation” that the dollar bull market is over, after years of calling bottoms in commodities. Biotechs continue to collapse, naturally.
He’s “not a bond guy”, meaning not smart enough to understand that collapsing interest rates is massively deflationary.
I could not sleep. I was thinking about oil.
Pondering cyclically. Pondering banking loans, etc. pondering human psychology.
I think oil will have another localized low…..the question is when!
Seasonality says most often profits in the market are made by buying in about February and selling in June. The variability factors are the weather and the secular trend in the market.
There is another factor in that many oil-related loans are reappraised commonly in April and October.
My fundamental conclusion, therefore, is dependent on when the next low happens.
If it happens quickly there is time for oil to take off due to seasonality.
However, if the next low is delayed until summer, then there will be no opportunity for oil companies to hedge, and when banks reappraise loans later In the year, they will not be renew and many more fracking companies will go out of business. Production may then even be reduced by over 1 million barrels a day.If that happens, the oil price may move up faster than it would if the next low occurs sooner.
With regard to the meeting between Obama and Yellen, I am sure she was told not to raise interest rates.
It is possible that she was told to initiate another round of QE sometime before the election.
With regard to the general stock market, looking at company profit trends, P/E ratios etc., without manipulation and Fed/ESF intervention it is possible to have a 30% drop by mid 2017.
Here is an area where charts may provide better information after initial drops occur truly indicating a new cyclical bear market.
I do not know the extent to which the Fed is able to intervene. Just lacking data on the amount they need to cover bank losses/propping up the bond market.
That’s my 2 cents.
Gold breaks below 1280 this morning on its way to the mid 1270’s…..but does it have the juice to breach the highs of February and April spikes? We will just have to watch and see what the market does at the open. Today may just give us a 30 dollar decline though.
I would not bet on large PM drops Bird, except on a Friday night/Monday morning when most of the West is asleep.
Too late CFS. I already bet. But no matter. This is a work in progress so as you say we will wait until Friday and next Monday to see if it sustains itself or gold moves higher again. Because there is still quite a bit of speculation in miners I can tell you I honestly don’t know yet what will happen next.
Lets put it another way… I am not taking any victory laps just yet.
The ADP employment report due out today will set the market tone.
But the large drops in BHP and Vale, due to the multi-billion lawsuit in Brazil, may also affect mining shares generally.
I see London is attacking PMs again.
+1
I really don’t think London or the COMEX have a lot of physical.
They are really playing with fire.
CRUZ………..might be a good choice for SUPREME COURT……..jmo
But who would choose him?
Trump might, but could he get elected in the fall? Trump’s negatives among Republicans are barely under 50%
I think those numbers will change , …a coming together in the party is underway.
Probably right CFS. I would be VERY surprised if Cruz dropped out without a good offer on the table from Donald. That is after all the nature of politics so don’t count Cruz out if we see a Trump Presidency. He will almost certainly have a high profile position in the new administration.
Cruz did not get any offer from Trump. IMHO.
He said he would continue until he,Cruz, had no viable path to the presidency, and then drop out if he did not. With Trump’s win in Indiana, it appeared Trump would get enough delegates’ votes to win on first ballot, so Cruz dropped out as promised.
Cruz may have a bright future, once the “lying Ted” slanders are forgotten.
Perhaps 4 years from now…..I don’t know.
It is clear that Cruz has a very high IQ, and brilliant debating skills, but it is also clear that the general public do not empathize with or trust really intelligent people.
They clearly prefer Flim Flam showmen.
Trump was elected by democrats and independents voting. For him. It will be interesting to see if they cross over to support him at the General election; that is a different ballgame.
My guess is that the crossover will not occur
Smaller govt…….should have been addressed 40 yrs ago, with the older generation who failed to recognize the present. The older generation, won the war, but , trusted, that govt. would now reward them, …….the warnings were there, and they cared not. Failure to do their homework, is now the result of their failure.
They kicked out the bible, they kicked out the law of common sense , they kicked out sound money, they now are kicking in their grave.
Donald knows how to make a deal.
So Donald says.
And don’t forget it was not that long ago that the party was talking about changing the rules to install “anyone but Trump” so Cruz would have been the obvious choice. For Donald to end that speculation his group would have made a very good offer to get Cruz to drop out before the convention.
The GOP hates Cruz.
The GOP establishment is a bunch of corrupt people.
Cruz is a small government conservative.
Why do you think Boehner spoke out so virulently against Cruz?
Why do you think the major GOP PACs, have spent tens of millions of dollars in anti-Cruz ads?
Maybe something about relinquishing control!
The GOP is not the deal maker so they would not have a say in negotiations. That right falls to Trump and the Trump camp because they hold the power to appoint if Donald is elected President.
GOLD spikes up before 8:30……….interesting……………
Al – you simply don’t understand about Brexit from the English perspective. It’s not about economics. It’s about being able to govern ourselves. It’s not good enough to be told to stay tied to an organization that isn’t working because it’s convenient for everybody else.
The EU is not just a free trade area. It’s as if the US were part of a pan-American organization and all the laws and rules came out of South America and there was nothing you could do about it. In the end, you would want to go it alone and you wouldn’t be impressed if the Chinese premier told you to put up with it or face consequences.
Al – the week after Obama’s speech the polls showed a rise in support fro Brexit. In my honest opinion, there’s a good chance that we’re coming out and I’m sorry if Americans don’t like it but maybe you’ll just have to get used to it.
I think it’s great that Obama’s words had that effect. I hope Brexit happens.
I do too, Matthew.
HH, it’s actually worse than that, because at least some South American countries are democratic. The EU decision-makers are for the most part unelected bureaucrats.
The democratic process has little effect on EU law-making.
Bobby Knight just interviewed………..Asked by the reporter, “what do you think about Trump and the REPUBLICAN PARTY interest”……..KNIGHT’S reply…..” I do not care about the republican party or the democratic party interest……let’s get together and make America great again, and stop talking about a PARTY interest.” THIS statement of Knight indicates he has a clue on the TWOHEADED SNAKE parties…….He was a History major in college.
On the other hand……..Knight and sports…..are a side distraction….The educational system is now just a big athletic event…..Money making scam ,that big time athletics is making the billionaires more billions.
I see they even…….pulled out LOU HOLTZ…..the irish should be proud….Lou was coach of Notre Dame football fame.
OK, the Canadian dollar has now broken its trend channel. It will have to drop below .78 and stay down there a few days to convince anyone that a real correction has begun. For the moment crude is rising up again but I think that will be short lived.
Got it. Birman
Birdman.
That was one hell of a run in the Canadian dollar, Billy. It went for almost 4 months straight up and surprised a whole lot of people. Bullishness there is also very elevated as you might imagine so a pullback is probably more than overdue.
I think the trading range for oil is going to be 40 to 60 now and not 30 to 50. It is more than a dead cat bounce.
The Loonie is a daily chart/short term SELL but how low will it go?
I don’t think it will go as low as many think it will…
This is the sharpest monthly Keltner channel reversal I have ever seen. Also note the Accumulation/Distribution line at the bottom of the page…
Oops, wrong place; that’s an IPT chart.
You may be right Paul L, because of a dollar decline.
Here’s a good article on ratios, particularly in commodities, that all can read while waiting for Al to begin posting his daily missives. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1462367275.php
Is the velvet hammer out……………..
For those who can view a monthly chart, IMPACT Silver’s is bullish perfection:
Here’s 13 years:
Here’s 21 years of IMPACT Silver. Fork resistance for May is about 1.22…
Volume data on ISLVF is still showing to me at least about another week sidewards or downwards, but data is not statistically very good, because of low volume.
I guess I ought to look at venture exchange volume…..!
Thinking about the venture exchange, a trader working for RBC in London, told me yesterday that the Canadian exchange regulatory authority IROC (if that is correct) is going to try to re-introduce a version of the uptick rule later this year.
The rule will probably not allow shorting on a down tick.
The problem is communication between the various platforms in Canada.
Yes, you should use IPT for all of your analysis.
The uptick rule has been a topic covered at Howestreet(dot com) lately. This would be a great time to bring it back.
The discussion we had was about how to slow down a collapsing market.
Putting in breaker limits or stopping or slowing shorting, etc.
There is considerable concern in London about markets collapsing.
There is close to a panic in currencies because ALL central banks are monetizing their debt to one degree or another.
The idea is to grow inflationary economies faster than debt, but monetization so far has backfired and debt is typically growing at 2 to 3 times the growth rate of GNPs in most countries.
I have no doubt that they will succeed in weakening their currencies to obtain the price inflation that makes it appear as if there is economic growth.
Wage increases will not make up for the coming decline in the purchasing power of the currencies – but they will placate the masses.
The problem, Matthew, is that one cannot have every last central bank monetizing without the risk of runaway inflation causing world monetary collapse.
The problem is that inflation is normally controlled by raising interest rates, but that option is no longer possible at high debt levels, without having unstable runaway debt, which would lead to a collapse.
This was Zimbabwe, Argentina, Weimar Republic type solutions…..it has never worked over several years. Once inflation gets to over 10%, depending on the ratio of debt to GDP the collapse can happen within a year.
And this time virtually all the Western world is involved. This has never happened before in the last millennium.
I disagree with your first point, CFS. ALL currencies must be debased so that the herd doesn’t detect the danger and stampede away from the system. If they are debased one at a time, more people will grasp what is happening since everyone has been taught to measure currencies in terms of other currencies. If they all fall roughly in unison, then their exchange rates won’t fluctuate to a degree that is outside of what most people are used to.
Thanks to the hyperDeflationary assent of technology and the world’s emerging markets’ growth trajectories, I think that a Weimar style hyperinflationary outcome can be avoided for longer than most inflationists think (and I’m one of them).
Massive nominal GDP growth can be achieved by massively devaluing the currency versus gold while relaxing regulations and taxes, implementing the new minimum wages and launching infrastructure projects. I am not for any of these measures and they would leave the best part of the population (savers/producers) worse off, but I think they would work to get debt to GDP to a much more manageable level so that the wealth-transferring ponzi scheme can continue.
Of course you are right that this has never happened before. It is extraordinarily bullish for the gold and silver miners.
Matthew, thanks for your comment.
You may be right.
I see inflation getting into an unstable state more easily than you do.
The time lag between money creation and price increases seems to force instability if there is any mistake, but maybe I’m wrong.
Great looking rebound – little pullback! Picked some up yesterday at $0.69.
Big picture, I have no doubt that that’s a great price but consider being ready for the possible short term spike lower that I also mentioned. A move to .58 or even lower would not be a big surprise but it probably won’t last long either.
I am not saying that it is probable (yet) but it is definitely possible. In other words, be ready to buy more or to hold if it happens.
Venture data is actually worse than OTC data….looking at least 2 weeks before rise, even inC$
What do you mean by “worse”? In what way?
Birdman – re what you wrote above re commods, yen, USD, etc – have you stopped hedging with JNUG and just gone long JDST/DUST yet?
I have quite a few trades on right now Bob. WTI, silver, gold, miner shorts etc etc. I have probably said enough on all of it though since it just attracts negative heat when I write any details about what I am doing.
Not from me.
Of course not Bob. You are one of the good guys. I am referring to “you know who”.
How about this article Bob…The 500 Euro note is toast according to ZeroHedge. What is the biggest bill still circulating in England btw?
The War On Paper Currency Officially Begins: ECB Ends Production Of €500 Bill
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-04/war-paper-currency-officially-begins-ecb-ends-productionissuance-eu500-bill
£50
Will that still buy a good lunch in London?
About DUST and JDST…..sorry if I came across as rude. That was not intended. Where I am at right now is that I am modestly in the black. I have to make a decision to sell both or keep holding. I can’t divine yet if gold will bounce back and I might get these cheaper next week so I am doing nothing until I sort it out. Volumes have been picking up though….the Yen is slightly falling…the dollar is going up and Canadian buck is falling down. It all looks brilliant and a terrific set up so odds are good I just keep to the course and hope it goes my way.
£10 will still buy a pub lunch, as long as you’re not too thirsty.
£5 will buy fish and chips if you prepared to eat out of a newspaper wrapped package as you walk.
The sin tax on a bottle of wine sucks!
The BBC radio 4 is making me nauseous. Bleeding heart liberals complaining that children at Calais are not getting sufficient aid and help.
If they weren’t trying to get into the UK illegally, they would not have a problem.
What about the millions of pounds of damage these illegals do to trucks?
Pity the trucking companies not the illegal scum!
BBC Radio Fivelive is worse – at times it sounds like it has turned into the PR arm of islamists IMPO. The Breakfast Show is worst – there seems to be a constant pro islamist migrant agenda.
Virtually none of the news stories about gang rapes by islamist migrants in Sweden, Germany, Austria, etc, etc, ever get reported. The BBC has such a pro islamist agenda now that any idea that it is an impartial broadcaster is just nonsense IMPO.
Radio 4 is the same though – basically it is the BBC News department. They see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil when it comes to islam. If you even question what is going on they kinda imply that you must be a racist. They don’t come out and say it – they are too clever for that – but you can hear what they are implying by their wording and tone of voice. It is all VERY sinister.
And Cameron is now going to let in more refugees!
And Corbin says Cameron is too little too late.
Where’s the money coming from?
Italian court just ruled that a thief found guilty of stealing cheese and other food should not be punished in ANY WAY, because he is out of work and hungry.
Open season on petty theft from shops!
Doc, do your technicals think AGN will bottom @214 or keep dropping? Thanks.