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We start the morning with Chris Temple

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Are the results of yesterday’s elections reflected in today’s markets?

Discussion
21 Comments
    May 04, 2016 04:01 AM

    Nice start for today. Thanks guys.

      May 04, 2016 04:12 PM

      Send me some freshly cooked beef steak (aka bif stick) and a Pinay mistress if you would not mind Chris. Thanks!

    May 04, 2016 04:07 AM

    I don’t know Chris, I can’t see fundamentals playing that big a role in today’s sell-off of oil stocks. For me it was mainly predicated on that steep fall in the Canadian dollar and that is where the algos and traders took their clues. Looks like it will continue down for awhile now as well so the reversal my well be in.

      May 04, 2016 04:13 AM

      You could be right, too — these are all intertwined. The loonie is probably a good short, too, along with energy stocks.

        May 04, 2016 04:24 AM

        You bet. That’s exactly my thoughts. Rick had called the Loonie bottom back in January and had his subs take out four contracts precisely on the day of the reversal. No idea how they made out on those but last I read two months back they had booked 8 or 12 thousand (cannot recall exactly anymore). Maybe Rick will do an update on the odds of this being an important top. Those guys must have made a killing if they held those contracts all this time though.

      May 04, 2016 04:14 PM

      UWTI and DWTI were swinging back and forth like crazy today. I got stopped out twice on DWTI for 0.20 cent profit on first stop out and $10 loss on the second.

        May 04, 2016 04:49 PM

        UWTI and DWTI have been a roller-coaster lately Jason. At least you didn’t lose anything, but for me these vehicles are utilized best for jumping in and making a quick scalp and getting back out, and then then switching the direction. A few times I’ve had both going at once in a pair trade but then sold out on a dip or spike in one, and then doubled down in the opposite position at that point. I’ve been trading them manually and personally don’t like using stop losses, but as a result I’ve been surfing the waves of bone chilling plunges and spine tingling gains. (not for the faint of heart).

        I’d recommend trading using the 1 day, 1 hour, 5 minute, and 1 minute charts, looking a the Japanese candle patterns, and then doing short-duration trades based on the patterns that set up. Usually I stay drilled down to the 1 minute charts, but near the beginning or end of a hour, I’ll toggle back over to the hourly charts to see a larger picture view, and if I get confused I pan back out to the daily for a quick reference and then telescope back down to the hourly and minute.

        I’d recommend using the “Interactive Chart” on this site, and occasionally using the technical tab as well.

        http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart

          May 04, 2016 04:53 PM

          The only problem with that one up above is that is freezes often and takes a while to load sometimes. Here is my backup live oil prices site (but this one doesn’t have the 5 minute chart or the weekly as defaults, but they can be accessed by using the arrow drop down menu).

          http://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

            May 04, 2016 04:54 PM

            You can also use the + or – buttons to zoom in or zoom out.

    May 04, 2016 04:20 AM

    1600 Structures lost in Fort McMurray … 7500-10,000 hectares on fire.
    17 military grade air tankers , 80 helicopters , the Impact of 88000 people evacuated is going to impact all Oilsands production, we are talking a large percentage of 450,000 bbl/day being offine for weeks, perhaps months… It will likely be the worst natural disaster in $$ and lost property in Alberta’s history. when the sum of these barrels not getting to supply chain add up going into summer driving season we are going to see gas prices increase in the summer driving season. The folks who don’t understand the importance of ft.mcmurray in north America to their lifestyle will learn by July just how big of an impact this is.., it’s not a blip, this will take a year to get back up to speed in the city of ft. Mac.

    I predict the real numbers to hit the oil company’s CVE, CNQ, SU by end of Q3 and it will be a dramatic kick to them when they are already down.

    prayers for the innocent folks displaced in this disaster it’s going to be devastating for this small town.

      May 04, 2016 04:26 AM

      Wow, its that bad. Thanks for the update Evan.

      May 04, 2016 04:48 AM

      Ontario,Quebec and the eastern seaboard of Canada use very little Alberta oil. We get most of our oil via tankers from dictators and despots in Africa and Saudi-Arabia (300,000 b/d). I think it would be prudent now to seriously look into the benefits of consuming Canadian oil IN Canada! The Energy-East pipeline would be a great start.

      May 04, 2016 04:29 PM

      What’s worse, as I was visiting with a guy this morning whose son worked in that area for many years, is what happens if the fairly dry and combustible (due also to the sludgy petroleum content in some places) muskeg catches. As of now, the fires are well south of the major oil sands operations. Were that to change, and the muskeg catches fire, it may REALLY be a long time before it’s safe to operate those places. The coming weeks will be crucial to determine whether this is a one-off interruption in production, or something more chronic that has a lasting effect on supply.

        May 04, 2016 04:06 PM

        This is going to be boom times for guys selling motorhomes, RV’s and trailers, that’s for sure. But more South you can already hear the hissing sound of the remnants of the past housing bubble as all the remaining air finally comes out. I used to live not too far South of Fort Mac and when things were slow there it was really depressing for everyone. You would see lines of vehicles, motorbikes, RV’s and what have you along the highways with big For Sale signs as everyone scrambled to meet rent payments and overdue mortgages.

      May 04, 2016 04:56 PM

      Does anyone know how the fire started? (long oil future’s traders?)

    CFS
    May 04, 2016 04:31 AM

    To what extent were tree-hungers to blame for lack of removal of underbrush and fire-break cuts in the forest?

    CFS
    May 04, 2016 04:33 AM

    Out west in the US a disaster is just waiting to happens. No lessons were learned from S. California fires a few years ago.

    May 04, 2016 04:19 PM

    dollar is the better of the weak curencys. I closed out several gold stock and potash stock positions at a modest profit. I am still short several oil producer stocks[currently at a loss] . waiting a week to reinvest. still like gold by fall winter time fram. Dont understand why cruz quit his campain . best of health and wealth to u all S

    May 04, 2016 04:26 PM

    Don’t miss the GOLD boat !

    May 04, 2016 04:26 PM

    The bubble economies such at DC, LA, NYC, etc. are doing well but get outside those areas and it ain’t so good. I was in Greensboro, NC last Summer and it was boarded up business central. I just drove 840 miles from the DC Area to Orlando, FL and every interchange we stopped at with the 4 year old (every 2 hours) was littered with boarded up businesses. Chris is right, Orlando is booming thanks to Disney. However, across the street from our hotel is a boarded up hotel. On a related note, everyone here is driving a nice vehicle. I have been in town 4 days and have seen 1 car that you could consider a junker.