Some yellow flags for investors to watch closely
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Rick Ackerman kicks off today with a technical outlook on the usually markets we cover – US markets, oil, gold and the US dollar. Some of the yellow flags that Rick is watching closely is how gold and the gold stocks pullback here and set up for the next run.
Click here to visit Rick’s website for more of his commentary.
It topped already. Trend is now down.
Your beer goggles must be fogged up unless that link isn’t working for you.
You must be joking. For the past four years I have been correct about the trend and you have been dead wrong. You really think this time is different? Give it a rest man. Both gold and silver are going down hard. They will retest their lows THIS year and then fall to new lows.
It took you five sentences to not answer my question. That’s about right for you. 😉
Perhaps you should google “trendlines.”
I never open your links or charts anymore because they are almost always wrong information. Who needs the confusion that lives inside your brain?
LOL, ok!
“Who needs the confusion that lives inside your brain”, did you steal that line from Don Rickles!
Birdman, are you a jewish comedian?
DT, he might be afraid to site the author of that quote for fear of being accused of name-dropping. 😉
Matthew, now we will know if he is a fraud or not?
Matthew, one thing we do know is that he has been married more than once, maybe he is a Mormon.
Usually when you mention his name he’s right there, let the bells ring out and the banners fly. A quote from Bugs Bunny! DT
DT…..Mormons never let their wives leave, they need them to manage all the extra planets they are going to acquire after they leave earth.
Maybe Matthew wants to go and answer my post of 12:43 pm today for a few big belly laughs. Then later tomorrow I want to do a search on some of our lively debates in the past where that smarty-charty guy asserted we were *only* in a cyclical bear market in precious metals. Ha Ha Ha!!!!!
What a meathead…he was dead wrong all along.
Go on Matthew, its time to apologize and just admit it I was right all along.
Birdman is obsessed with Matthew because Matthew has gotten the better of him. DT
Bird, I’m not the only smarty charty guy who has eyes to see with AND knows what he’s looking at. Yes, the cyclical bear market in gold was just that – cyclical. It should be obvious to you that it was corrective and did not threaten the secular uptrend.
What a goofball you are.
First, the chart was about silver, not gold.
Secondly, when a price falls all the way back to the spot from which if first took off that is NOT a cyclical decline. That is called a price crash. A full reversion to the start. Even a 6 year old knows that much.
I can’t believe you just embarrassed yourself so badly after looking at that silver chart I put up and reasserting the same foolish remark. ANYBODY here with a pair of eyes and a brain can see that the trend on that chart was a secular trend.
By inference they can conclude that gold is also in a secular bear market since both metals are joined at the hip. Or maybe you want to rewrite the whole book on precious metals now and in your version silver can be in a secular decline but mysteriously gold is merely cyclically falling.
And you call yourself a silver investor. Too damned funny man!
Anyway, you wrote the words above mate. Hopefully everyone reading these comments now sees you exposed as the obvious promoter that you are. Either that or how poor your chart skills are….which is it Matthew?
You’re the one that should be embarrassed, Bird. You do not use silver to assess a precious metals bull market. You use GOLD. Silver acts like a leveraged gold derivative. It goes where gold goes but with amplified moves.
You’re welcome.
Oh really. How informative.
You see people around this web site wearing short pants who might fall for your childish rationalizations? Maybe Platinum is a better chart for the kids since it is also a precious metal. You remember Platinum don’t you? It also traded just like gold and experienced a very similar parabolic rise and excessive speculation.
And now it has come all the way back to the beginning (almost there buddy).
Here is the chart. Hmmmmm….looks like a secular bear market decline to me!!!
Platinum on a Monthly Chart — FINVIZ.com (that one has *almost* retraced to the mean. When it hits 600 dollars we can finally talk about an end to this bear market in precious metals).
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PL&p=m1
You really are a clueless BSer. I have to laugh if anyone is falling for it.
Is that the best case you can make in response to my charts and detailed explanation?
The 10,000 people who come here everyday cannot stop laughing at you, buddy. Its all here in black and white. Thanks for responding so everyone knows your position. What is your position on this subject anyway?
Oh yeah…I am a big old BSer. That’s your whole case?
You are quite the technical analyst Mr Charty.
I don’t need to make a case to counter yours because you don’t have one. Platinum is not a monetary metal so its chart is far more meaningless than silver’s. Stick with GOLD for your analysis.
Then why are Eagles being struck in Platinum?
American Eagle Platinum Coins
https://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?Action=american_eagle_platinum
Birdman did you see this post on seeking alpha I do not know anything about the poster.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3971048-gold-silver-topped?lift_email_rec=true
Thanks Doug. That was interesting. But I disagree that there is a new bull market in gold. On that subject I feel quite certain. You have not likely read anywhere else that gold and silver will do a 100% price retrace of price that we have see since January but that is exactly what I see happening.
Longer term charts are still supportive. Most particularly the silver chart which could well see 10 dollars by late this fall.
We are in a secular gold bear market until further notice. Nothing can be done about that by anyone and price must mean revert just as we have seen in a host of other commodities. Oil is another example. It will fall to 20 bucks if my reading is correct.
Even that huge fire in Canada has only nudged WTI up by 2 1/2 dollars. The larger trend is not reversible though.
Is that your article by the way? Its OK to say so here (we don’t know your real name!).
Thanks Birdman. I just got it from Seeking Alpha I am retired and trade some in an ira and my personal account. I have to get my information from others. The people I follow seem to go along with you more than most that give you a hard time. I am not a very good at trading or trying to get rich. I just do not want depend on the government to live.
Have a look at the monthly silver chart Doug (linked below). This one is fascinating partly because of what it suggests about the future but more so because I have been in a running argument with a few other posters on this site for the past four years about the larger trend.
The other guys had INSISTED that gold and silver were merely in a cyclical bear market. That is to say their claim was that the old bull market that ended in 2011 would reassert itself and then launch prices into the heavens.
I on the other hand have countered that what is really happening is actually a full secular bear market in precious metals. What that means is that the prior bull ended (full stop)….So there would not therefore be a continuation of the old bull market until this current bear had run its course.
The implications of this are of course enormous. It suggests that once this bear market ends we will likely suffer a long period of consolidation before a new bull can arise. The gold-tards would have none of it.
But of course this silver chart proves I was factually correct all along. It shows that prices have almost fallen right back to the bottom prices (of 2008) already which was what I warned about all along.
I wish I could pull up those old posts of several years ago so you could read for yourself the foolish arguments the other guy(s) put forward but they are too hard to locate with this Kereport search engine.
Anyway, what my primary argument centered around was that silver had gone fully parabolic leading up to 2011 and we do know that such charts resolve themselves by a retrace to the mean. They also very often fall below the starting price as well when they overshoot the bottom (but that is not guaranteed).
So that would tell us that silver would most likely see 10 dollars again before we could declare a final end to the bear market. And in such a case it was highly unlikely that gold would do much better as the two trade together in general terms.
So where are we now? Well, silver has indeed already fallen to within three dollars and change of the point it first took off and the damned fools who told everyone we were in a cyclical bear market have egg all over their sorry faces.
But we are not done quite yet. Silver has a little more downside to go and this last drop could well happen within the next 7 or 8 months as we take one more sickening ride back to the very bottom.
Take a long look at that chart I linked. The silver bugs have fought me all the way down for four long years and they have been wrong every last step of the way. We are NOT in a new bull market yet. What we just saw most recently was merely a bull rally within the larger falling trend and almost NOBODY seems able to see it yet.
It is just astonishing to me how even the so-called experts cannot recognize this for what it is. So don’t fall for the hype. We are going back to 10 dollars on silver in my opinion. Be very careful about heeding those who say otherwise.
There is one caveat however. If silver can continue this current rally and finally break solidly out to the upside above current resistance levels then there is a better possibility the final lows are in. On the other hand, if price fails here and we start dropping again then odds are good we fall right back to the point this rally first began in December.
We can only watch and wait at this stage before knowing for certain. It will be a cliff hanger no doubt.
Silver on a 25 Year Chart – the bottom off the parabola generated during the 2011 bubble can reasonably be found at 10 dollars. — FINVIZ.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m1
You people who worship Matthew need to look at the linked chart above. He says that is a cyclical decline in a long term secular bull market. WOW!!!
Un-bee-leave-ah-bull.
*Crickets*
Guess Linda has no comeback after all.
Case closed folks. I won.
Here is Platinum on a monthly chart.Anyone else here recognize the pattern or how similar it is to the silver chart? We are talking a full retrace to the mean. That’s why I keep saying PM’s have not hit bottom yet.
Now here is gold. I saved it for last. It sure looks to me like it has work to do. And no folks…it has NOT hit bottom yet either so lets not get too sexed up and horny about this little bounce we saw since January. She’s going down a ways yet.
Next stop is 1000 dollars.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m1
But wait….I will bet there are people here who still want to convince you gold is *special*!!!!!! Yeah, right.
In this article, which I skimmed, the author makes the argument that the HUGE increase in volume for DUST is an indicator:
Elevated volume in leveraged ETF’s are a great way to spot turning points in markets which is why current volume in DUST should not be underestimated.
Does the author realize that increase in volume may be countered by the drop in price from 20.0 to almost 1.5?
$20 x 8.3M shares = $166 M
$1.50 x 120M shares = $180 M
In other words, the amount of MONEY buying DUST has remained about the same
Interesting point. But when I read volumes it is not price I am interested in but rather the number of shares trading hands.
Great call on Tesla last night Rick. Very precise.
If I shorted individual stocks TSLA certainly would be one of them—-I believe this stock is really going to be taken to the wood shed.
I agree Richard. I think Ricks gang shorted this one at 220 so they should be doing ok. The long term chart looks abysmal to me as it has formed a gigantic dome in the process of falling back down to earth. It could conceivably fall all the way back to where it started but I don’t know what that implies other than a bankruptcy or negative earnings.
Oil is going higher in North America – 650,000 BBL/Day offline today in Fort McMurray.
For those who are aware, there are over 100 companies in The Oilsands… The re-start of some of these units will take months not weeks, as workers, families and govt deal will the devastation of over 1600 buildings. 3 weeks from now – the impact of the missing barrels will be felt north America wide. I don’t want to sound like a nervous Nellie, or over react – but this is the most serious fire disaster in Canada’s history. it’s impact is unknown and the uncertainty in the next few weeks on how long to solve this is going to drive certain price-supply chains to adjust in the upward direction. if there was ever a black swan, this is it.
But bad news is good news and vice versa Evin. Remember how Ukraine was supposed to spike gold but instead it fell or how Greece debt would destroy Europe? The market reaction to this will be that oil prices fall, not rise since the opportunity was just created for other suppliers to increase production even further.
The world is nuts.
Great ootb…thinking…………I think……… OOTB
This must have been planned the fire, conspiracy at work or ?…….Why was the BDI up from March?…..
Like you said “The world is nuts”
Never mind…….I answered my own question……BDI……forget it.
I would hate to think someone started that fire deliberately to raise oil prices but I guess we just can’t know what crazy ideas lurk in the minds of workers losing their jobs.
TWIN TOWERS…………anything possible
BP oil spill in the Gulf……..Halliburton….
Nothing would surprise me concerning OIL….and BIG MONEY…….
Here is your BDI chart Jerry. Volumes were up based on China hype but fell back based on reality
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/02/20160505_bdiy.png
Thanks…….I was confusing Baltic Dry with Baltic Dirty Tankers………
I asked that same question yesterday OOTB. It is absolutely a tragic situation, but one wonders about the timing of this event and how the fire started. In the back of my mind I wondered, “was it was orchestrated to put a floor on Oil, save the banksters, and keep the stock market propped up?”
Like you said, nothing would surprise me at this point.
NUGT bouncing off technical support trend line as I expected it might yesterday….candle shows reverse to high side…well see how this plays out but we might get a little bounce higher before a potential seasonal drop and return toward 200 day mov ave…..I’m long NUGT
Sounds as if you are long NUGT in the short-term? 🙂
Bob, yes very much a short term perspective……today’s candle stick in NUGT, XAU, HUI,all showing a potential reversal….but no data on how far it will go. I suspect it will be a minor bounce only that doesn’t make a new high.
The bollingers are narrowing on NUGT and the upper line is coming down to meet price. To me that means NUGT will fall within the coming days.
Yes Bird, you could be right in a few days. I think this is a short term trade that will take NUGT a bit higher than current level….then it could plummet. Friday is often the “counter trend” day….so I kind of expect a higher price on Friday at which point I will take some profit….then start dropping early next week…..noise to an investor….opportunity for a trader
You are probably calling it better than me JC. But I agree it looks like tomorrow will see NUGT rise with gold as the dollar might take a break. Anyway….time for bed. I am burned out tonight.
JC – I liked that last line “…..noise to an investor….opportunity for a trader.”
There are so many opportunities where technical indicators, fundamental data points, out-sized moves in momentum, or short-term turning points (peaks/troughs) are music to short term traders ears; but noise to longer term value investors,.
It is interesting read and listen to many people’s reactions to news or directional changes based on their unique philosophical vantage points as a trader or an investor. The same thing goes for reactions to news as to someone’s short-term or longer term disposition, what they add weighting to, and what they block out.
Longer term investors tune out short-term gyrations, focus on the longer term trends, and block out short term news or technical data to the contrary of their investing thesis. This makes sense, as long as it is not tunnel vision, and they absolutely should stay focused on the the big picture or it will derail their longer term strategy.
Short term investors may move into an uptrend, but then turn around and short a mini-peak rally right back down into a corrective move, and then buy it right back and go long again, magnifying or decimating their returns depending on their entry and exit points, accuracy, and technical skillsets. I like the swing trading personally, but have a pretty high risk tolerance, feel comfortable enough with both the technical and fundamental analysis in the sectors I follow, and don’t hesitate when it comes to pulling the trigger if my targets are hit, regardless of how I feel. (I will concede that sometimes I get a big trigger happy though 🙂 )
So what are the odds of a promising jobs report tomorrow and a pretty big plunge in pms particularly silver?
There will probably be the usual pressure as the cooked report gets released, but that’s about it.
thanks birdman, will take that into consideration… update on fire…
70 Km/hour winds… 49 Fires, 7 out of control fires.
40 military grade helicopters, 16 Air Tanker Fire Fighters, 1000 Firefighters, 25 Active Fire Trucks working 24/7 in the city, Airport closed for in/out of Ft. McMurray.
This fire is 4X bigger than the Slave Lake Fire that occurred in Alberta earlier.
We can expect 10 days minimum of pipeline shortages, and refinery production shutdowns… the downstream supply chain will be impacted in next few days the reaction next week will be significant.
I can’t pretend I know the outcome the markets will have, but I can say if you are a fire flood restoration company, a crisis councillor or a homebuilder your phone is ringing off the hook.
Slave lake had 400 structures damaged… as of today 1600 destroyed in Ft. Mac.
Fire has grown to 85,000 Hectares in size, mostly due to wind and unusual temperate differentials caused by the fire conditions.
Overall, it the worst over… they cannot say, it’s too early, weather permitting certainty is not a thing the officials are willing to say one way or another.
Very bad news for Alberta and the country. I was really sorry to hear about it especially as I have friends working up there.
Thanks Evins for the information, and the projections on what this may mean for pipeline shortages and refinery shut downs. I appreciate your insights into the energy sector.
What a mess for Alberta. They can’t seem to get a break. I sincerely hope this does not turn out to be a false flag event to put a floor under Oil, the banksters, and the stock market. Regardless I wish them well in the fire-fighting efforts, for minimal injuries, and for a quick recovery.
correction, 140 military helicopters, 138 Fire Trucks, 1100 firefighters deployed, 225 active in the town defending homes, 22 Air tanker transport units, as an Albertan, this is the most emotion I have ever witnessed by media, government leaders and all community affected by this disaster. It is very dry up ther due to a very unusual winter with not a lot of precipitation, the lightning strikes in the forest can start several fires at once… 7 are considered out of control, 49 fires are active in the region. The comment should be stated that the oilsand infrastructure is not at risk at this time.. but the employees who work in the mines are evacuated for a minimum of 10 days, when a good percentage of them come home they will not be able to go home (as extent of damage is assessed), the anger and frustration will cause certain jobs to not be permed for weeks to months as the community deals with the aftermath of the wildfire.
The fire is 5X bigger today than 2-3 days ago, it’s moving or expanding at 100 meters a minute I. some areas and that means this weekend the weather and wind will either add or subtract from the fuel to its size and scale.
We don’t expect any assessment for 14 days as the next 4-5 days will be critical to how much it expands or hops roads. The only positive is no deaths reported thus far.
$11 Million has been donated to Red Cross in Canada today, the government will match donations to Red Cross dollar for dollar.
thanks for listening.
Evin…Thanks for the updates, no deaths so far is a godsend. I hope the fire-fighters put their own safety first.
Agreed IrishTony. Wishing them well in the fire-fighting efforts, for minimal injuries, and for a quick recovery.
This forced evacuation of the population is something foreign to me.
Over here its not compulsory,
In fact, many (a large %)stay to attempt protect their own property.
I can only guess its a different government/local community mindset?
Best wishes to those affected in Canada.
Cheers
It’s basically wilderness out there Skeeta. Check it on a map (upper right…see link). Almost nothing around in the way of other settlements or cities. There is not regional support or quick access to other cities except by air. Only one major road into the place. Fort Mac has one major hospital. You get the picture. So since they are pretty much surrounded by fire and the city itself was ablaze by an absolutely massive inferno then it made better sense to evacuate and protect lives first…..property second. Most people up there are company employees of course. The oil companies will have procedures for emergencies that have to be followed. The Provincial government can also enact a state of emergency enforced by police. So the option of staying was not even be available. The evacuation was in fact mandatory. And if the boss or the Cops tell you to get the hell out, you just pack your bags and go.
Alberta Road Map –Fort McMurray is in upper right side.
http://www.watertonpark.com/maps/mapab.htm
Bird, the point is, the state owns you if you don’t have the right to decide for yourself.
+ 1
‘Three Black Crows’ more prominent on the monthly dollar chart, compared with the daily gold chart which is more like 2 1/2 black crows.
Exactly right.
It does not matter one bit. Because as you often say, gold can rise WITH the dollar and by default that means gold can also fall as the dollar falls.
Exactly! 😉
Well you finally got somethng right. Gold can indeed fall with the dollar. It’s not going to this time, however.
Is that a guarantee?
I’m not delusional so I never guarantee any prediction.
What predictions?
? When I said “It’s not going to this time…” that is a prediction.
I got stopped out of NUGT AGAIN today! Only $10 loss thanks to no commissions Robinhood. Made 9% on DUST banking my profits. Holding long on DWTI. Might jump back in DUST tomorrow for a day trade.
Loonie support that I highlighted yesterday is holding so far…
http://schrts.co/YaLT1q