Is gold rising?
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- Segment 1-2: Dan Oliver, President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, kicks off the show with why he thinks gold is rising and we discuss politics.
- Segment 3: The President of the International Precious Metals Institute (IPMI), JP Rosso, introduces us to the institute.
- Segment 4: Chris Temple, Founder of the National Investor, discusses the idea of helicopter money in the US.
- Segment 5: Traders Corner Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net discusses his outlook on the SP and GDX charts.
- Segment 6: Traders Corner continues with Laurent Patrick Gally discussing the investing opportunities that arise over the summer.
- Segment 7: Mining consultant Jayant Bhandari shares his insights on the trends in the gold sector.
- Segment 8: Jeff Deist, President of the Mises Institute, discusses the differences between Trump and Clinton.
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What does gold or silver have to do with any fiat currency? No fiat currency represents gold or silver or is made of the same except for some mint products. Fiat currencies are representative of debt. It shouldn’t matter one bit to banks or governments how high the price of the metals are under the current monetary system.
Steven how do you measure the value of gold? In fiat, I suspect. Is thus not your measure of gold dependent on the value of fiat?
+1
No matter what the currency it is badly overpriced. Gold is a pure speculative play at this time. Anything over 1000 bucks is fantasy land. Miners should lock in some of these current prices unless they are nuts because the downside stands to be painful again.
But they won’t because as usual they are besotted and smitten by all the super positive talk from a small devoted crew of bugs who will say absolutely anything (including lie) to manipulate the thinking of the public.
If I catch you claiming you are gold bug again, I will mention it. You can not go both ways.
I am not a gold bug but I have to admit that I have made a good return this year. Gold, silver and shares were too cheap. I still have a lot to sell. My three large holdings Silvercorp, endeavor mining and first majestic really outperformed the rest. Even after selling some, SVM still became my largest PM equity holding. My former largest holdings silver wheaton and goldcorp were not bad either.
Bird,
You say miners are smitten & besotted by super postive talk from a small devoted crew of bugs who will say absolutely anything (includling lie !) To manipulate the thinking of the public.
& according to you? thats why they won’t hedge???
LOL what an absolute, complete cr@p that statement is. Do you actually believe that cr@p?
Thats delusional if so.
For example,
ASX listed BLK & ALK both announced partial forward hedging proceedures late this business week.
I can just as easily point to dozens of others that have partial forward gold production hedges in place already.
Do you not EVER read gold producer company announcements?
We all have opinions on where this market is heading, & obviously some are differing than others.
But your above statement is both rdiculous & completely untrue. if the public do a little bit of financial digging into statements themselves of who they are investing in they would know your comment is BS.
Maybe you can remind us again of who is prepared to lie? The bugs?….Or you ?
Facts are facts,
But don’t let the truth spoil your campfire yarn.
Enjoy your weekend!
Cheers.
A couple cases is hardly an industry trend. Just look what happened following the price cash of 2011 when so many companies shares sold off hard and could not recover because so few were hedged to those high prices.
That is what I am talking about. The companies themselves were drunk on speculative fever and that is a fact because most did not believe prices would fall and not recover.
At that time there was quite a controversy as to why so few had locked in those lofty prices. Maybe your memory is poor but it came up frequently in 2012 and 2013 as shareholders were so upset that their investments had fallen and companies had almost universally left themselves open to the precious metals price collapse.
You need to take a chill pill btw. You sound way too stressed.
Anyway Skeeta, I am on pretty firm ground saying that very few miners are hedging production and one way of knowing that is because sentiment for the outlook on gold and miners is at nosebleed levels. It was an astonishing 96% last week. The CEO’s read the same blogs we all do and they are influenced by the spec fever just like the rest of us. How else do you explain accelerated insider buying, M&A activity and new offerings? The guys pushing miners are all drinking the same Kool-Aid as the guys like you who pump the virtues of gold.
To da moon, baby!!!!!!
On May 7, 2016 at 6:23 pm,
Dragonite says: “If I catch you claiming you are gold bug again, I will mention it”
——————————
I have NEVER said I was a gold-bug. The term is derogatory. You are a gold bug. I consider it to be a mental illness and I pity those of you who suffer the effects.
It is all relative Bird and, to me, it all depends on a person’s rationale. Is silver, for example, something that I would pay 30 bucks for if my time frame was long term ? Of course, I would!
Well sure Al. I would agree with that. During the next mania silver at 30 might be quite a bargain if we expect prices north of 50, 60 and 100 dollars. We don’t know when that period of speculation will arrive of course. I just beleive that this is not quite it.
Bird,
You did mention you are a gold bug several times before. Hope you remember. As for my self I never owned any gold prior to 2009. I was against my wife investing in gold miners in the 90s and 2000s and asked her to sell what her coworkers had her put money in. I started to get interested in hard asset when Greenspan started to have loose monetary policy. I started to invest in silver and miners since 2004 and put money in real estate. I can sell my gold if interest is high but I will not sell all my hard asset since I believe all governments have abandoned monetary responsibility and inflation is with us for long term. I would not consider this assessment makes me a gold bug since I don’t have to own gold to protect again inflation. There are other ways. It makes me a realist. I am an inflation bug. If you think it is a definition of gold bug it is not your problem. I think people have abused the term too much?
BTW, you don’t have to pity me since I have bought at lows and sold at highs. I made money and expect to make more. As for suffering, off course investing has sufferings all time as long as you have skin in the game. It is called no pain no gain.
So very true, Dragonite!
Guest Post: “The Death Of The Gold Market”, by Paul Mylchreest
Our friend, Paul Mychresst, has written this extraordinarily comprehensive report on the current state of the global gold “market”. His timing couldn’t be better. As price holds firm against the extreme efforts of The Bullion Banks, it is absolutely critical that you take the time to read this tremendous summary of the current situation.
As you’ve often heard me state, the global gold “market” is much more vast than the Comex-centric analysts would have you believe. There are literally hundreds of moving parts that affect price…and the price “discovered” on the Comex has no direct relationship to physical supply/demand fundamentals.
This new piece from Paul Mylchreest is the sort of thing I would have loved to have written myself…if I had the time and expertise to do it! With Bullion Bank leverage soaring to extreme levels and paper obligations to deliver gold reaching heights unseen for years, it is CRITICAL that you take the time to read through this report.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7615/guest-post-death-gold-market-paul-mylchreest
Thanks Market.
Gold market has been dead for years. This market is the Comex/LBMA centric. You can see the Comex delivery amount and compare it with the supposed to be less important shanghai gold exchange. It becomes a joke. The physical buyers and sellers have left the market and this becomes a paper game. With the limit set for the delivery and the term that the house can change rule at any time, there is no way that buyers will risk their capital to trade in the futures market. Only gamblers do. If I am Chinese agent to acquire physical gold why do I play the game instead of going to order in Switzerland refineries. Otherwise Comex changes the rule and my money got stuck there, I have to go bankrupt. LBMA is a little better but same applies there too.
It’s all about how one defines “worth”, Steven.perhaps a better word here would be long term value. IFor the long term would you rather have US dollars or gold? For the long term which is worth more to you?
That is certainly a possibility UK Bob.
Cheers fella’s,
Thanks for your weekend efforts as usual.
Much appreciated.
Thanks for you continued support, Skeeta!
This morning the BBC reported that Jeb Bush won’t be voting for Mr Trump, because he Trump lacks the strength of character to be president!!!
Many will consider this to be an even better reason to vote for Trump!
These guys (Bush, Romney, etc.) don’t realize that they are the ones that people are angry about (they say one thing to get elected and then do the opposite).
Trump may say things that some find to be a little excessive, but it seems like he may mean what he says (which will sure be a refreshing change, should he win the election).
Have you listened, mike, actually to what Trump has said about international affairs and trade?
Do you really want raised tariffs ? Do you really want a 1930s style depression? Do you really a possible WWIII?
Trumps foreign policy is outstanding! The best for our country and the world.
I respectfully disagree with where you are going, Professor.
Did you read the comment we posted on Friday from the Canadian listener? It certainly made a lot of sense to me!
JEB BUSH………….like he has any creditability ….lol
If, it wasn’t for him JEB…….AND the.. hanging chad vote,… his brother would never have been elected by the FLORIDA SCAM……..Popular vote of less than a 1000 people, who determined AL GORE would not be President.( I was not for Gore).
I do not agree with Jeb, Andrew.
LPG Very helpful insights, thank you.
Archdeacon,
You are most welcome.
Hope all is well.
Best to you,
LPG
LPG – I enjoyed your segment this weekend, and I thought there may be a different perspective on the summer doldrums. As you know, I trade all year long, and don’t give a rip what day or month it is, as there is always opportunity each an every day.
However, having said that, there are seasonal periods that are interesting in how they may rhyme or have certain tendencies. For example, the “Sell in May and go away….” mantra or the “Summer Doldrums.”
The seasonality of this time of year May/June/July/early August can really just be a more boring consolidation period without the extreme moves to the upside or downside. Many market observers have noted the the sell in May and go away or Summer Doldrums in precious metals, because this time of year is often rather uneventful, and there are typically bigger percentage moves in other asset classes or sectors.
Yes, I’m sure people will note a few times where the metal spikes or drops in this time period, but if you look year after year, the general trend in the time frame of (April – early August) is a sideways consolidation. The selling starts before May [typically in late April], and just like we just experienced at the end of and tends to “muddle around” sideways until roughly early August. Clearly Summer doesn’t even start until late June, so really much of this stagnant trading is actually in the Spring, but then is followed by slow start to Summer = the Summer Doldrums.
In my experience, it isn’t so much a matter of selling in May and buying back in September, or having a rigid definition of holding through the whole summer down to the calendar dates. Really the late Spring/early Summer doldrums are a time where investors lose interest in Gold and they focus on vacations, football & soccer games, cheerleading practice, beaches, lakes, camping, fishing, and kids with Summer vacation from school, so some tend to lose focus of the Gold narrative during this time frame.
However, once school goes back into session in August and vacations are over, things tend to heat up one direction or another (this is already well underway by September in most cases).
Basically, if one sets the parameters on inspection from how investors did selling in May band buying back on Sept 21st, then this misses the point of the Sell in May or Summer Doldrums period IMO. There are clearly some investors that did this in past from May to September, but I know very few people these days that are out of the marketplace for that long of a time period these days. Instead, what many people I’ve read or listened to in the past did in the sideways consolidation periods of the past were to sell out positions, place them in other sectors with more Alpha, and then came back in the July/August time frame in the later Summer.
As supporting evidence, check out the following annual charts on Gold that show from late Spring to early Summer has a tendency for Gold to be range-bound in general in the late April – early August zone each month:
_________________________________________________________________________
2007 Annual gold Chart. Notice the range from 650ish-690ish from late April-early May:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2007-01-01&en=2007-12-31&id=p79130030910
2008 Annual gold Chart. Notice the range from 844 -956 range from late April-early May:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2008-01-01&en=2008-12-31&id=p25368668742
2009 Annual gold Chart. Notice the sideways range from late April-early May, especially compared to the volatility the rest of this recovery year. Things really based in the late Spring and early Summer before really taking off:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=2009-12-31&id=p71923869912
2010 Annual Gold Chart. This year was a breakout year for Gold, but if you look at where things are to start May, and where things are to start August, then essentially, even though there was nice little bump, things had returned to about the same level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2010-01-01&en=2010-12-31&id=p51636312806
2011 Annual Gold Chart – Again, this was a HUGE year for Gold, but if you look at the period from late April – early August, it was basically trading in a sideways channel before rocket-launching up.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2011-01-03&en=2011-12-30&id=p20499667884
2012 Annual Gold Chart – Notice the consolidation in late April – early August where Gold was in a bullish wedge, and then finally broke to the upside in late August at the apex.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2012-01-02&en=2012-12-31&id=p91314623630
2013 Annual Gold Chart – For most analysts of the Gold sector, 2013 was a very strange and bearish year where everything broke down. There were no late Spring – early Summer doldrums in 2013, just downside pain…… but again, it was a strange year.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2013-01-01&en=2013-12-31&id=p91224423152
2014 Annual Gold Chart. While this was a roller-coaster year, if you look at where Gold was in late April, and where it was in early August, then it was essentially in the same place. (again, I had a blast trading Gold to the long and the short side all year, but if someone sold in preparation of May, and then bought back in early August, they would have exited and entered around the same pricing level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2014-01-01&en=2014-12-31&id=p08698718026
2015 Annual Gold Chart – Last year the range-bound doldrums were really April through early July, then the bottom fell out and things got more lively, but around this time a year ago was still a bit boring.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2015-01-01&en=2015-12-31&id=p61634863014
Hi Shad:
Here is an interesting quote from Gerald Appel’s book Technical Analysis.
“Virtually all net gains in the stock market that have taken place during the last half century or so have taken place between November 1 and April 30 of each year.May to October periods have essentially broke even,with stocks often returning slightly less to investors than risk-free income producing investments during these months.
Thanks John K. Very interesting and that is a fairly long timeline he researched. In general that is the point I was making for Gold from late April through early August as a seasonality factor. It isn’t so much investors losing money as thing forming a sideways channel where little progress is made.
Having said that, as a trader, I love it when things get stuck in a trading channel because you can go long, then short, then long, then short and ride the waves back an forth. I’m in the markets every day, regardless the season, and think there are always opportunities in individual stocks or ETFs. However, there are times where I put more focus on other sectors in the late Spring and early Summer.
I’m curious about this year though, because if the Summer were to be really strong for PMs and commodities in the face of a further weakening dollar then things could be much more lively. I was just referencing the historical years from 2007-2015 because many summers I let off the gas in PMs and just held with what I had, and got more into Energy, Emerging Markets, or used the 3x leveraged ETFs to ride the waves in PMs to get more oomph in a flat-lined market.
Cheers!
Hello Shad,
It’s all good.
Thanks for the links. I had looked at a few years back indeed, starting 2007.
Hope all’s well.
Best to you,
LPG
Yes, you encouraged me to post from 2007 – 20015 based on your editorial 🙂
Again, I don’t think it is so much traders losing selling out completely for fear of losing money, as much as it is just a period of time that year after year, consolidated sideways in a boring and sluggish range that was like watching paint dry.
Since we have a good chance at having a transition year, there is no guarantee that past performance will equate to future results, but if history “rhymes” then I would not be surprised to see a range develop here over the next few months.
If however, things really get moving to the upside or downside (like in 2013) then we may have either the final capitulation or the confirmation that new Bull is underway. Our buddy Glenfidish has mentioned that if Gold was to put in a really solid Summer and breakout during a typically sideways consolidation period, that this would be good confirmation that we have turned the page on the big bad bear, and are in the new bull.
LPG – Thanks again for your thoughts and for bringing up a timely discussion on seasonality.
He is truly an insightful guy, Andrew!
Is gold rising? Some say no.
Good segment with LPG. If one is willing to dedicate the time to individual issues, outperformance is likely. I’ve been an active participant in metal shares since 2000, technically astute, but still learning, since 2004.
Stick to a plan, and if you don’t have one, get one, both short term/ long term. As of May 7, I have better than a double the gain made on the HUI since November, ie.258% in the metals sector.
How can you have a trade war if you are paying for real goods with fake money?
It doesnt cost the USA anything for the chinese imports-its just a blip on a computer terminal. Maybe its China that has the problem to get rid of all that garbage before it depreciates any further.
Smoot Hawley refers to a world on a Gold Standard -not a world where there are no standards and no unit of account.
Currency exchange rates are determined by balance of trade, Jim.
Do you really want to use a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy a loaf of bread?
Jim, it really depends on how many people define it ad being fake!
Although I am seduced by Dan Oliver’s thesis, I would like to know who is the “fella” who wrote that article in the South China news and his level in the PLA? Much more importantly, assuming a Trump presidency is a long shot at best when you look at his approval numbers. Also lets not forget that Trumpy’s favourable ratings are only %36 of the general population. The fact that minorities make up %30 of the population, %90+ who will never vote for him. Everyone one knows he has to move to the centre in the coming months if he wants to convince the general population that he is not the next Hitler. As soon as he tones his vitriolic speech down, backs off on his anti-muslim and Mexican wall B.S, his extemist Reality-TV-loving base, will feel more alienated and not vote for him. He has some serious political hurdles in front of him that common sense tells me he will not be able to overcome. I’m not a fan of the Clintons, but this election is a circus I will not want to miss! I feel for U.S citizens right now and I imagine things will get much worse before they get better. Fascist “strong men” candidates are going to continue to appear more and more as the empire winds down. By the way, Ted Cruz was just a smart less flamboyant fascist.
All Cruz’s actions in Congress point to Cruz being a Constitutionalist.
What specifically has he said or done that makes you call him a fascist?
CFS, you are right technically Cruz is NoT a died in the wool, fascist but a liar and a demagogue. I’d prefer Trump as he will drop his fascistic talk soon. Threatening religious groups, deporting the undocumented slave-class and building walls, all point to the beginning of a dark road to fascism in my book. Having said that, I don’t believe he really intends to enact this type of program. Sadly, what his vitriol does open the door for, is the expression of an extreme authoritarianism that can lead to full blown fascism in the future. It is a sickening and dangerous game he is playing. It also gives license to people who are not afraid of hurting sexual, visible and academic minorities. There are folks on this site who are already spewing this kind of bigotry. Every authoritarian figure needs a “thug-class” to create fear and discord in the larger society; Trump and Cruz both are courting this. I really hope this will not be the outcome of the current extremist republican turn. I hope this clears up my points a bit.
Could you, perhaps indicate an example of Cruz’s lying.
I have listened very carefully, and found Trump, not Cruz to be lying.
It is possible that Cruz has lied by omission, but even there I cannot find any good examples.
On the other hand I believe Trump actually often believes what he says at the time he says it, even if it opposes something he may have said a day or two earlier. That is why I call him unprincipled.
I have called him illiterate simply because it is apparent that he knows little history or economic theory.
I see him as a great salesman, but a pretty pathetic human being.
I think it is funny, that he called it quits in INDIANA……..Being in a bible belt, believes know his father have some short coming concerning SELF ELECTION OF BEING A PREACHER.
Married two times…………….could call for being of unsound mind…………
I even think the BIRTHER ISSUE would reappear………
Interesting comment Confused. I also ask you, did you read the missive we posted on Friday about the nature. Of the US problem?
magine things will get much worse before they get better. Fascist “strong men” candidates are going to continue to appear more and more as the empire winds down. By the way, Ted Cruz was just a smart less flamboyant fascist””
Dude,
Educate yourself. We’ve been through 100 years of war led by the merger of State and corporate powers. Hitlers was head of the National
Thanks for your revealing “education”….I am a changed man and have seen the light bro.
Chris, CFS and Steve
here is another, alternative take from your own on the current situation that should open up our eyes to what a crumbling society looks like and what it looks like. Cris cults is what people are in and looking for. Sometimes I feel this blog looks like what Hedges describes in his article. Remember this guy has actually whitenesses first hand, several societies crumble and collapse.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_wages_of_sin_20160410
Sorry guys that was severely jumbled:)
I meant to say: For a different take on the current problems in the U.S look at this article. It describes what a civilization in serious decay looks like and how people attach themselves to various illusions to make themselves feel better. He uses the term “Crisis Cults.” This is a guy who has reported on and witnessed first-hand the destruction of several societies through decay, tribalism and war. For all you Christians out there he is also an ordained Presbyterian minister. http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_wages_of_sin_20160410
Confused, he Christians who I know simply desire that people live by the golden rule. (What some of us call The Proclamation of the Kingdom!)
SOCIALIST party.
The National Socialist German Workers’ Party (German: About this sound Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (help·info), abbreviated NSDAP), commonly referred to in English as the Nazi Party (/ˈnɑːtsi/), was a political party in Germany active between 1920 and 1945 that practised Nazism. Its predecessor, the German Workers’ Party (Deutsche Arbeiterpartei; DAP), existed from 1919 to 1920.
Nice UK BREXIT video.
Yep we’ll govern ourselves from hereon out….
Politico had a good quotefest this week on Trumposconi:
Donald Trump’s Greatest Self-Contradictions
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-contradictions-213869
What he thinks/does is anybody guess
Bush and Clinton are the war party. They Democrats and Republicans are the SAME party.
They hate Trump because he is anti fascist.
You support the norm. That makes you part of the problem
My guess is you are a product of the public school system.
Perhaps you can read a little, improve your education and get back to us.
WOW never heard that line before!
Confirmation! public school ed-a-ma-cation….
They hate Trump because he is anti fascist.
No! They hate him because he is one and can’t be controlled or bought off like the rest of the crooked politicians. The only honest political leaders the world hs eve known in recent history were some of the monarchs and all of the Nazis and fascists. That is why they are hated to this very day. Such leaders do not hold power today.
What we have instead is corrupt jewish- masonic mafias operating an oligarchy that controls the world of democratic and Marxist politics, the world of banking, commerce, the media and probably organized labour and other NGOs plus the PC groups. You people in error call it fascism but it really is applied satanism. It has all got to go!
You nailed it, I could not said it better.
What we have instead is corrupt jewish- masonic mafias operating an oligarchy that controls the world of democratic and Marxist politics, the world of banking, commerce, the media and probably organized labour and other NGOs plus the PC groups. You people in error call it fascism but it really is applied satanism. It has all got to go!”””
I agree with you. The merger of state and corporate power =fascism.
If the pope hates Trump then that is a plus for me.
Or “Inverted totalitarianism” as political philosopher Sheldon Wolin described it back in 2003. Here is what it means : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
Chris, you must have benefited from the public school system yourself if you think Trump has any aversion to fascism or those who control the world, as you put it.
Interesting point, that I happen to agree with, Chris. I do have to say that the magnitude of those who hat him s=ms to be diminishing
Sorry Steven, I can neither say nor think aNY thing positive positive about the Nazi party.
Chris………….you are spot on concerning BUSH AND CLINTON…..and the TWO HEADED SNAKE PARTY(DEMO-REPUB)
LPG is right those “doldrums” don’t happen as much during a gold bull. Adam Hamilton mentioned that in his last opting on the 321 site.
This is not a gold bull. This is nothing more than a dead cat bounce in a secular gold (and silver) bear market. Once you appreciate that then life will be a whole lot simpler and all the rationalizations about what is happening will appear as the noise that it really is.
I posted charts yesterday proving beyond a shadow of doubt that we have just been through several years of a secular bear. Those charts are unequivocal and show that prices are mean reverting. So we need to accept a basing process lies ahead rather than a V shaped bounce.
This bear has not yet ended nor has the consolidation phase even begun.
There is not a word of bloody sense in a single one of the popular gold blogs. Not even one. Every analyst and his dog is now calling for a correction and then soaring prices. Buy now or be priced out forever.
And they are all wrong. Lets screw our damned heads on people!
This is not a bull market!
You’ve said that already. Some of us are satisfied that it is a bull market.
On that note, I’m sure you’ll be happy learn that my portfolio hit another new high yesterday. I’m working on a four-bagger in four months.
MIne also Matthew.. Due to your picks.. again.. I thank you!!!
Well said Ann.
Everybody here made money on the bounce. My comment is not about profit or speculation. The commentary refers to reading of the charts and properly understanding what they are telling us.
So I am merely encouraging readers to remain objective.
I will tell you this though…when EVERYBODY thinks the same way it only means all of you are going to be wrong. And as soon as I realize that there is a consensus among the crowd then I am more certain than ever the lot of you will be sucked underwater in the downdraft.
You really think bull markets start like that? Do they start before hitting bottom?
Mr. “This is a cyclical bear” wants me to stop speaking the truth now but he still won’t admit he has been dead wrong for four long years. Good grief. He must be pretty humiliated to have made such a large error.
But if I am correct that we have been in a secular bear all along (I am correct) then what is happening now cannot be the beginning of a new gold bull market because the chart has not yet come close to completing the process of mean-reversion.
Just look at this chart folks…and be objective.
—————————————–
**This chart is not even close to a mean reversion. It is not telling us a new bull market has begun. Do not be fooled by the chorus singing the praises of gold because more downside lies ahead. This is not just me saying so. The chart is doing the talking.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m1
That’s great Ann, I am very happy for you. Don’t forget to take profits and rebalance your holdings. That sounded like advice but is really just a suggestion for your consideration. 😉
What bears repeating shall be said as many times as necessary if only to offset the anthem and chorus of the repetitious gold bugs like yourself. There is no one else standing in for common sense or an alternative reading of the charts and the unwary should know that the bull-tards like you do not have a franchise on reading the Runes on the future of gold.
If you don’t like to hear it then don’t listen.
As far as I am concerned though you are just one among many who are leading less informed people astray by refusing to even acknowledge that a deeper look at the charts is in serious conflict with what you assert.
We only have a dead cat bounce here Matthew. This is not a bull market. It is not a resumption of a prior gold bull market either. We have never yet seen a bankruptcy phase nor was there a true capitulation.
So either you are manipulating others, you are delusional or you don’t understand charts. Which is it then?
no offense here mr bird, but I never heard of a dead cat bounce lasting 4 MONTHS!??
Then look at some historical charts.
That’s right dw jones. Bird gets my “Strong Ignore” rating.
Of course. Because you hate facts.
PS: Don’t even bother adding facts (insert crap here) that nobody can verify. We don’t care.
DW Jones,
For some historical perspective on dead cat bounces over a few months, you can, for ex., take a look at gold’s price action in mind 1982 and what ensued up to early 1985.
Best,
LPG
That’s true LPG, at the end of a secular trend that collapsed from a 25 fold increase, such a dead cat bounce makes sense. Since everything is fractal, anything that happens on a one minute chart can also happen on a monthly chart. No matter how micro or macro, all cyclical patterns repeat. The 21% bounce in the summer of 2013 is our modern equivalent.
Luckily, there’s been no end to the secular bull for gold.
What we have now could send gold to over $1500…
well, I stand corrected. my apologies for my lack of technical analysis!
Well, you’re still right that the current rally is not a dead cat bounce. That’s why my knee-jerk response was to agree with you entirely without much thought.
I am so glad that I listen to and consider all opinions. Bird!
DW Jones,
It’s all good. No need to apologize I guess.
One additional comment though.
If you notice, neither my nor Matthew’s comment was based on “technical analysis”. Each comment was just based on the price of gold – no technical indicator were used. Just plain, simple, observation of a price on a chart.
However, to get some perspective, it was useful to look at “many” years of price history to formulate the comments.
When it comes to investing, to have a sense of what the future may hold, I typically look in the past. The longer the historical perspective I can grasp, the more comfort I get for my intended capital deployment.
Avoiding the short-term moves drama (either up or down) is sometimes difficult. Looking at long-term charts help a lot, in this regard.
Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
This is all so much easier for me to deal with Bird, because of my rational for holding gold and silver.
I understand that completely Al. I never argue against the merits of holding precious metals as insurance but rather against the words of certain people who are misleading the unwary because of their perpetual bias and unyielding bullishness through both the rainstorm and the drought. Those people are promoters and are not suitable to offer advice to anyone since they can be dead wrong as much as half the time.
In many cases my experience has shown you to be correct about promoters who only care about their wallets. Witness some of the “expert” letter writers!
What if Trump picks Bobby Knight for VP?
Not a realistic assumption, Bonzo!
Trump should pick Ron Paul for VP.
RP would reject him, no doubt about that.
Raul is a career politician…………a TEXAN, which moved to KENTUCKY for a senate seat.
Raul………..sorry…….combination of Rand and Paul………peas in a pod.
Too late in the game, Bonzo!
Testing
Al
I sent a comment earlier please disregard and don’t post. Thanks
Matthew I sent you an email!
Matt you have been very good with your picks kudos to you my friend.
It’s obvious we are due for a correction of some sort. How big it will be is yet to be determined. Tread lightly over here. I have to say the miners have been and are on a tremendous run since December but others have been on a much longer run like Claude etc.
Everyone here I say the same as Matt, lpg, shad and others, play the miners as individuals and there own identity. Pay less attention to gold price and more on the stock charts, it’s tendencies and cycles and you will all come out on top. Each stock marches to its own best.
Agreed on playing each of the miners as individuals with their own technical indicators. However, I do like to watch the metals and the mining ETFs for the macro trends as well, so I’m not swimming against the current.
Cheers amigo!
I meant beat not best.
But all the best as well 🙂
Litigation for Manipulation of Precious Metals
We are NOT proposing a Class Action suit for individuals at this time. The reasons are stated in our original JSM posting. We are litigating for harm to business entities only. For this new type of legal action we are not litigating on behalf of individuals. Please refer to the original posting to understand the reasons for not pursuing a Class Action.
The success of litigation we propose for gold and silver producers will pave the way for individual Class Actions and other cases to prevail on behalf of individual investors. Those actions will follow, but the legal action by the producers needs to be addressed and resolved first to pave the way.
We seek contact from your companies and producers who have been injured. We do not seek contact from individuals who have been harmed by manipulation. We ask that you urge those in executive, decision making levels in your production companies to contact us. In recovering damages through them, you will benefit as an investor in that entity.
Please urge the decision makers in your producing company to contact Jim directly at TRECEO108@ gmail.com so we can arrange a conference with legal counsel. If you are not an executive decision maker of a producing entity, your email is not being sought for this litigation.
Thank you for your time and attention. Please contact and urge your company to contact us for inclusion in our litigation at no cost to them.
Best regards,
Jim Sinclair
I could be wrong, but I am liking the price action in gold a good deal.
Many people will continue to think we are still in a bear market or have not yet entered a bull market but I do not take this position.
Many people have been burned these last four years, and have been disappointed, discouraged and even depressed.
So it is only natural for these same people to be gun shy and suffer recency bias.
I myself these last four years was a bear, even though I held a large position.
I call it as I see it.
I believe now there is very good evidence to declare the bottom is in and a new bull has begun.
The fact that many people are still leary and calling for a crash only adds to this case.
The pullbacks have been short lived and shallow.
So from a strong bull, to a strong bear, it is time to get bullish again.
Remember all bull markets start from bear markets and this bear has ended.
Nothing lasts forever
Nobody called for a crash James. Where did you read that?
Total agreement James….the weekly charts look good….some are just die hard bears.
I happen to be a realist, not a bear at this point.
James,
I believe you have the right mindset. Its clear as day that unless the world as we know it comes to an end due to a “Samson Option” type event, we are going to continue to be governed globally by insane people in power making the worth decisions conceivable and we will continue to be subject to ghastly currency, financial and banking improprieties that will continue to ring-fence and limit opportunities for the average person.
This leads directly to gold and other hard assets as an arbiter balance to faulty edicts, which in-turn allows for the leveraging of physical golds derivative, high quality PM stocks to help skilled investors in the mining sector reap monumental profits at select cycles in the bigger movement.
In short, the profit opportunities that lie ahead for investors in the PM community on the up-side, far far out weight the profit opportunities to the downside. Although sell-offs are welcomed an expected at key pivots during a parabolic move.
This bull and bear tug-o-war is mostly just noise. Instead of setting around fretting over a bit more downside in gold, a prudent investors should be cataloging a massive list of fabulous companies that will excel when this market makes its inevitable move again to the upside. Hitching your wagon to the downside as a motivational emphasis may well provide you with some beer and pizza money in the end, but recognizing that the real profound profits that can be had from the miners/explorers in a firm bull market move will provide you with Mac-mansion type profits.
Just my 2 cents.
I, for one, am certainly not interested in beer and pizza profits!
I am interested in all profits and would like a Mac-Mansion, beer, and pizza with some of the proceeds 🙂
I do agree with Vortex when he said “prudent investors should be cataloging a massive list of fabulous companies that will excel when this market makes its inevitable move again to the upside.” Well said my good man.
Thanks Ex. Best to you!
Al may you be blessed with a bounty of profits. 🙂
Very good point, James!
Presidential powers have been so greatly expanded over the last eighty years that The US system of checks and balances is all but gone, eroded to the point where The Congress and The Constitution are rubber stamped by The President.
Looking at the past sixteen years, I have to agree with you Mr Tracy
There has been a major change in Saudi Arabia this weekend – it looks like the old guard, who have been in power for the past 30 or more years, have been ousted by a new, more militant lot.
The old oil minister, who appeared to be more open to OPEC agreements (After all, he has made a career out of that for over 20 years), is out and the new guy, who wishes to pump, pump, pump to drive others out of business, is in control. Perhaps the fires in the Canadian oil-fields brought everything to a head in Saudi this week?
But I suspect the Saudis are going to pump like crazy now – hence the oil minister of 21 years has been kicked out – and that will have a dramatic affect on the price of oil IMPO.
I believe the Saudis are trying to drive oil prices down to a level low enough to cause financial problems in Iran. This is in an effort to delay Iran getting nuclear bomb capability.
I believe this worry for the Saudis overrides all over considerations.
+1
I suspect an anouncement of even more pumping will come within the week from Saudi.
This is not about Iran. That is for general consumption only. The target is Venezuela.
I’m sorry for your ignorance, Bird.
Why ?
It may be your opinion, but it is Iran; nothing to do with Venezuela.
Do you seriously think Saudi would inflict pain on themselves to hurt Venezuela?
Yes. Because even Iran is not a good enough excuse for what is happening. There is almost a 100 million barrels of oil a day being pumped. Let me ask you this…..why is it that the parties cannot agree to collectively take a 2% production cut each to bring pricing back to the 60 to 75 dollar mark?
How much is 2%? Well its equal to the global supply excess. I guarantee you that a 2% production cut to see a 50% increase in income is an easy proposition to push forward in ANY business or industry.
But it is not being done. Instead the public and media are being bamboozled with this nonsense about Iran as if any sane business person who resort to such a ploy and cut off its face despite his head to make a point that cannot even be enforced.
Iran is selling to China. And China has all the ships it needs to load crude and take it home so they are buying all the surplus. Do you think that Iran believes this cock eyed story from Saudi Arabia?
Nobody with a calculator and a couple minutes to spare would buy that story.
CFS: How is it that a totally imaginary Iranian nuclear weapons program is a threat but when Saudi Arabia comes out and says they want nuclear weapons, we don’t see that as any big deal?
Good question, Robert
Sam-thing ! is coming whit Saudi Arabia don’t worry ! The corruption never stops ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvIUa47x_Oc
Let’s look at events tomorrow UK Bob
FWIW,
Stock markets in the GCC ended the day flattish (within a 0.5% range), of which the Saudi stock market ended up 0.2%.
Best,
LPG
I gotta correct something…
At 3mn13sec of my interview – segment 6 – I said “the one where you would have been right to do so was in 201-3”.
What I meant was “2015” (ie last year).
Apologies for the mess-up.
Best to all,
LPG
We are going to doc your paycheck by 20.13% next week. Big Al & Cory do not tolerate mistakes like that on their show LPG. 😉
meant to say “dock your paycheck by 20.13%.” (you don’t get Doc’s paycheck. Ha!)
Other. Not. Over.
Typing quickly my IPad did not like oter
CFS,
here is a 7 page list of the basic “truthy-ness” of Ted Cruz via the pulitzer prize winning PoliticaFact group….not all lies but load of half truths and typical politician smoke and mirror maneuvering. I guess it doesn’t matter now seeing he is toast.
http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ted-cruz/statements/
Thank you, Professor!
Actually Martin Armstrong PREDICTED a guy like Trump would come from out of nowhere.
Yes he did. Looks like he will be correct too if Hillary gets indicted because she will be out of the running. Sanders is a contender too though. I don’t think any of us knows how this will all turn out. But it is going to be different, that’s for certain.
Hilly is not going to get indicted……she has tapes and all the FBI files on the other members in CONGRESS…….per usawatchdog interview yesterday.
The Hilly will not go down, without taking a whole lot of others with her….the establishment is shaking and all have fallen short on their original oath of office.
Bird…Indicting Hillary will not disqualify her from running…and her die hard fans would vote for her regardless…
Are you sure? I would think that would end the race for her.
Bird..positive..there is nothing to prevent her from running while under indictment…if she is convicted that is a whole different story….
OK, that makes sense. She sure is under pressure lately.
She looks stressed………over weight…….someone is reporting a growth on her neck……..
I say we…….MAKE HER QUEEN FOR A DAY……….and give her a 24hour pass to the Whitehouse
It would be nice for Sanders to forget the corrupted Democrats and run independently. That was/is his mistake. Heck, he could even run for the Green party! At least the left would then have a real alternative the way the hard-right does now in the Repub party. I imagine a fair bit of Trumps working class support would drift over to Bernie.
BOB DOLE ………..was against Trump yesterday, NOW, he is for him. Wonder if , Hilly has any info on BOB……..and The American Red Cross.
The odds of her getting indicted are slim to none!
Gold tested important Fibonacci fan support on Wednesday and again on Thursday. It held perfectly…
We now have back-to-back weekly closes above what had been strong fork resistance…
Taking the 200 week MA should be no problem…
By the time Gold gets to the 200 week MA it is going to be at the $1321.50 target from the early 2013 plunge that started the whole last 3 years downwards consolidation.
It will be very significant if Gold can put in a definitive close about both that $1321.50 trough and the 200 week MA at the same time. I will break out champagne on that day, but for now I’m drinking a delicious IPA….
What I anticipated for the Slow Sto six weeks ago (blue box), has come to pass – and then some…
I purchased Intel and Cisco on Friday as these are 2 undervalued stocks with solid secure dividends and a good potential upside of around 35 to 38 for Intel and 30+ for Cisco.
http://fortune.com/2016/04/18/intels-stock-undervalued/
There are people who Re calling for a crash, not just a correction.
Rick Ackerman $825 gold, that would be a 36% hair cut from these levels
Harry Dent $500
Others as well
These are crazy calls
Even people who still think gold goes sub 1000 are plentiful, I don’t see it
825 is not crazy at all. Not given what the other precious metals have done already. I am telling you James, I feel certain that we will see 1000 before we see 1500. But I cannot guarantee that……Nobody can.
The monthly gold chart does not say to me we are going to start a new bull market though. Too many inconsistencies. If we break down from where we sit then we are going all the way back to the December lows. A full retrace.
Be your own guide though.
—————————-
BTW…besides Goldman, who else is still talking 1000 gold? I don’t see that anywhere anymore.
JNUG and NUGT both look like they will double top next week. Check it for yourself. If they break to new highs then I will have to do a quick review of my stance on metals as a breakout higher could be meaningful if not actually dangerous for the shorts.
Either one of those ETF’s could see those moves within hours of the open or even premarket as they only need a 12% move (eyeball estimate) to hit the double-top targets.
Monday could be D-Day for gold so keep your eyes peeled to the early morning action. Gold itself may retest 1306 at that time. You already know what I think and everyone here has a firm position staked out.
From here on we will let the market do the talking.
I went through dozens of gold and silver charts today. So many are at important resistance levels it really makes me wonder how they might punch higher. have maybe 20 that I will check first thing Monday in case they do break out because that could change the game. If the bulls are going to seize control they had better be able to pull it off next week because they will lose control otherwise.
Here is an example of what I am talking about James. It’s GDX on a 5 year chart. Notice that it has reversed just shy of the 200 day. If the chart does not show you the 200 then just plug it into the indicators.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GDX+Interactive#{%22showSma%22:true,%22smaColors%22:%22#cc0000%22,%22smaPeriods%22:%22200%22,%22smaWidths%22:%221%22,%22smaGhosting%22:%220%22,%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Now check the ^HUI…..note the red line. It is the same story with the moving average. This is all over the screens of so many stocks. Maybe that means something. There are guys here saying we are going for a run higher cause this is a big bull….but that does not look likely to me.
HUI on a Five Year Chart — Meeting its maker with the 200 SMA
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EHUI+Interactive#{%22showSma%22:true,%22smaColors%22:%22#cc0000%22,%22smaPeriods%22:%22200%22,%22smaWidths%22:%221%22,%22smaGhosting%22:%220%22,%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Birdman ! Franco- Nevada Corp Neeeeeeeeeer APPLE ! ?
I don’t believe that Rick is currently of the $825 mindset, James!
It’s his technical worst case scenario Al and in theory its still in play if this metals bounce turns out to be nothing more than just a dead cat bounce.
We never know ( 824 ) Gold ! Only whit A Facebook helmet ! http://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2015/08/13/tom-brady-posts-to-facebook-helmet-is-on-ill-see-you-tonight
( 5 of the most rich moslim nations ) HAVE TAKEN NO MOSLIM REFUGEES !!!!! Dis is a controlled destruction of the west + Destroy the christians relegion ! ALL Vatican control !!!
Your last sentence makes no sense at all Franky. Please start making sense so that you retain some semblance of credibility as we will only post material from credible people
ALL YOU AMERICANS………………..DO NOT FORGET MOTHER’S DAY……….
RUSSIAN NEWS…………….Russia to launch the …SPINEX, or THE ST. PETERSBURG INTERNATIONAL MERCHANTILE EXCHANGE………
DE-dollarization and killing the PETRO DOLLAR. Oil to trade ruble based pricing of it’s domestic produced oil……zerohedge.
TRUMP better make friends quick with PUTIN………….
I agree w/Dan Oliver that the fuel for the next rise in gold will come from funds.
That has already started……..check the HUI
I think…….
Happy Derby Day
For all you Canadians who follow hockey Nyquist is the heavy favorite.
What is up with Bill Clinton these days. Something has gone out of him. His mind seems to have lost the ability to understand new issues. It seems he is turning over old ideas and he is living in a dream world that he built during the days when he was in power. The Clintons are only a shadow of their past. It must be embarrassing for those that are around them. Trump will exploit this as he is at the top of his game. DT
Trump has noticed this, he is a very clever competitor. DT
DT: Maybe ‘The Clintons war on women’ written by Robert Morrow and Roger Stone has slowed their gallop somewhat!!! An open marriage that gives the nod not just to adultery but to serial rape.
I have to agree with you yet again, Mr Tracy!
When Trump becomes President business will be regarded with a new veneration. For the last 40 years business has been considered less dignified and distinguished than if you were a Harvard professor. Harvard professors should be compared to business executives and rated accordingly. DT
Yes to that.
Chris Temple’s commentary this weekend absolutely knocked it out of the park.
How realistic and refreshing to hear him speak the truth about ours and the worlds deplorable situation as a result of our diabolical political and banking structures.
Thank you Chris.
V
Yes to that too!
The new? pm bull market train looks almost empty.
Didn´t people hear the all aboard call?
I hope somebody ring a bell at the top.
Funny Pete. I’ve been on the Incline Railway in Chattanooga in the past. The last time my girl and I were the only ones on it so I told her I rented it out for us to be romantic. 🙂
Your romantic,always trying to impress the Girls…
It is scary when the woman in the speaker talks about the strength of the Cables,its like this move up in the pm stocks,will they hold or not.
Thanks Excelsior
Ha! Yes, at one point we remarked that we were placing a lot of faith in the construction and upkeep of the incline and machinery with people making $8 an hour that didn’t seem to care much if it made it up the mountain or not.
Living on the edge…..
I find the difficulty to exit at the top interesting,Rick Rule speaks about this in this (old)video.
Surely,he has some TA,EW,cycle etc,Guys/Girls and smart people working for him,still he only sold 30% of his pm portfolio at the last bull market top.
This was not meant as critique,i just find the subject interesting.
Browsing through the numerous financial articles this weekend it seems that most of them think that gold and silver are going to the Moon and that the convntionals are about to tank.
Very few think the opposite. Maybe when everyone is thinking the same…
Yes,who knows? Birdman may be right.
Birdman is pretty confident. He didn’t get to be one of the best analysts on precious metals by accident or because he has oatmeal for brains. That being said, Bird is fallible just like everyone else and no call is ever perfect. Such is the name of the game. But after a relationship with metals that has lasted more than fourty years he hopes he can offer a sage word on the subject every so often and maybe keep the animal spirits in check when it looks like the local readers here have been bitten and infected one more time.
Only time will tell,Birdman.
Of course. If you are curious though I am looking for a protracted period of declines in the metals off the current peak. It will be an up and down affair lasting many months and keeping most of the bulls fully invested all the way down. The dead cat bounces along the way will not be able to exceed these current highs though and gold should finish the year very close to 1000 dollars. We will look at it again after that and try to determine what is coming next.
One of the problems and maybe the biggest of all will be if Hillary becomes President. Because of her inability to discover for herself the essential facts of a problem and to think it through makes her totally dependent on others whose mental processes are sharper than her own. Not only that, the moneymen who have fuelled her campaign will be lining up at The White House. Offices will be plums to her and she will hand them out like Santa Claus. DT
I have cme to the conclusion Dic that she is really a light weight who is counting on the past and on people who will simply not accept present day reality!
I have finally come across one individual who is in agreement with my outline and analysis of the gold and silver charts. And lucky for me he is a fairly well known analyst whose opinion is respected by those who follow him.
Some of you here may want to tune into that show I came across this afternoon at Howestreet.com where Tim Woods (The Cycles Man) is being interviewed on why we have not yet bottomed in gold. Tim says that the charts on precious metals just don’t support the idea that we are in a new bull market.
He asserts that we have another leg down to complete the 9 year cycle and bring a close to this long bear market. Anyway, without repeating the whole show I will just let Tim speak for himself.
Here is the interview:
Hold Off Your Gold Buying Fever for Now? Tim Wood – May 6, 2016 — HoweStreet.com
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2016/05/hold-off-your-gold-buying-fever-for-now-tim-wood-may-6-2016/
GURU LIST HIM AT…………………..43.8% rating………..good luck..he will drive you crazy………use to listen to his nonsense way before you showed up…………
bUT, I might agree with his “another leg down”, this would be in agreement with Guru Gary (45% rating)…that the metal are set up for another correction.
+1 More Guru piss
Did you sell in 2011….or did you hold until now?
Thanks for the link. Wish I could take his news letter but it a little steep for someone that does not trade much.
contrarianadvisor says gold to $1400 then $500 in a deflationary crash that wipes out the permabulls. He called the metals bear market better than anyone since 2012 (even Plunger, who does great work).
His call for a 50% SPX drop in a few months still seems pretty outrageous and Polny-ish though.
Dan, are you also known by another name ” Clipboard Danny”.
If a major bank hits the fan before the year is out…..all this prognostication and TA bushiness will be moot. This is why smart folks like Rick Rule+Sprott held on through the bear. The risk is immense and will crack at some point in the further that no TA or Gurus will predict. Could be this year or in ten.
That is not why they held on through the bear. I just heard Rick in an interview say that he wished he had pared back more of his holdings at the time when he realized there was very little to buy anymore. In other words, he recognized the market was at a top but did not act and he felt that was a failing. He related that he had sold 30% of his portfolio of gold stocks but wondered why he did not feel the need to trim from the other 70% as well at that time. And then he added he hoped he had learned from the mistake and might be a little more aggressive with the pruning next time whether that comes in 2020 or 2022 (I am paraphrasing a little here).
http://palisaderadio.com/palisade-sprott-monthly-market-update-with-rick-rule-ricks-three-key-ingredients-for-a-100-bagger-in-this-bull-market/
But what Rick was really saying is that he let profits slip through his hands by holding on too long. And we have ALL been there so I really appreciated him relating that story because we can sometimes be hard on ourselves for not recognizing when a top is in and taking our money off the table (before other people do it ahead of us!).
Bird,
thanks for the link. Good lessons indeed.
Sure thing.
after sweating through 4 years of a bear market in precious metals, nobody wants it is difficult to hear there is more pain in store for the future and we are just drinking the kool aid. even with all the sticks & stones thrown at you, you are steadfast in your convictions. I have to admire that! at the same time I hope you are wrong this time but I will certainly be more careful in the future. thanks for your contributions. dw
Thanks dw. Just so you know, I am not against speculation. Indeed I speculate on both sides of the metals and oil trades. But what I object too is that there are some people here who simply refuse to acknowledge what is readily and easily visible on the charts.
To me that’s baffling, or at least it used to be, until I realized that some of the posters here didn’t give a damn what the technicals said when those indicators didn’t align with a predetermined bias they held.
I can’t change those guys (some of whom I suspect are promoters or people inside the industry) but what I can do is offer the alternative counts and show charts that might not otherwise see the light of day. Those guys conveniently fail to report on anything that is in conflict with the agenda they are pushing.
Hopefully my posts have opened a few eyes to see that there is a legitimate case for a continuation of the gold bear market and that we should keep that in mind before mortgaging the house to invest in PM’s based on the words of a few local devoted goldbugs.
+1
glad I sold out on Friday!
Not having ever shorted the major conventional indexes – S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ – does anyone have any experience of good shorting etf vehicles?
Would like to have the names of several etfs if only to monitor them.
Top 72 Inverse Equity ETF’s
http://etfdb.com/type/equity/all/inverse/
Is that my reward birdman – 72 etfs?
Well, its not punishment anyway. That’s not a comprehensive list by any means and it only includes some of the most popular inverse ETF’s. I have no idea how many there are in total but some out there have such little activity you would not want to trade them at all even when they sound interesting.
I was making an alusion to the 72 virgin thing.
Yeah, I was trying to avoid that (I’m surrounded by Muslims so no jokes allowed).
Someone said………the translation is wrong. The 72 virgins, should be 72 raisins.
Raisins, because Moslem at the time, where living in a arid region, and raisins were a delight and nourishment in a dry land.
Actually its dates….but close enough, Jerry.
Then I guess they can just date the virgin……… 🙂
Good thing I didn’t tell you that before its a Date….its called a Fig.
just a fig ure of speech…………… 🙂
Now, we are back to raisin a question………..
Bob UK – I typically use SPXS to short the S&P and TZA to short the Russell 2000.
Those are 3x leveraged so tread and trade with caution…..
Thanks Excelsior.
Birdman, out of curiosity, with 40 years in the market, have you ever owned the actual Metals?
If so when, do you currently own?
Did you participate in the metal equities surge in 2000- July 2008 & the Nov2008 -Sept 2011?
Yes. I no longer have any interest in physical metals though. It’s damned racket and not worth the time or effort. I sold the last many years ago and will never go back. Electronic trading is far more rewarding. And no weirdos to have to deal with!
I guess you are betting on system not falling apart, maybe it is not a bad bet considering where you are and age. Not trying say you are old but just want to state the fact.
Yeah, I am not worried. The African demographic is designed and primed for up to 50 years of very heady growth. This is the equivalent of the 1950’s USA over here now (except its very poor). Like the beginnings of a post-war baby boom that is just getting started. I call it the bubble gum era because more than half the population is below the age of 17 and most of those are young children. In some areas growth is just explosive. But it is not the fake growth created by Central Bank largesse and a flooding of the system with interventionist money supply to prop up growth and generate activity that is not needed or desired. Rather, it is genuine demand that propels the economies here where shortages of every kind imaginable are coming face to face with a demographic profile that is forcing change. Boom times baby! And its just getting started. The big problem lately is a severe shortage of dollars. That is apparent all over Africa and its stunting ambitions. These are not industrial countries and they rely on imports to fill most of their needs. But investors remain reluctant to start enterprises or industry even when they have a virtual monopoly offered because once here your capital is basically in prison. You might make terrific income in local currencies but repatriating profits can be very difficult as dollars are needed to supply foreign companies who then want to extract it from the domestic economies. The shortages are at times epidemic. Wait times to access dollars can run for months depending on priority levels as fuel, medical supplies and other import needs often take priority for some governments. Nonetheless, anyone with a long term outlook should do very well as success will ultimately be dictated by the positive age profile of the country. What I hear some companies are doing is rather than pulling their profits out in dollars they just reinvest in the local currency and expand for the future. What else can you do?
Birdman, thanks for clarifying your position. I wish you The Best!
Thanks Marty!
You boys see this? You must have. Surprised no one has mentioned this.
For Stan Druckenmiller This Is “The Endgame” – His Full ‘Apocalyptic’ Presentation
Can’t disagree with anything he said. But of course it’s all a matter of timing.
Mr. Big Al Korelin, what do you make of all this?
Kind of old news from Druckenmiller. I think he mad his 1st announcement about his heavy entry into GLD in Sept-Oct, and now recently a substantial amount of “his own” money is parked there. Quite a statement from the top money manager the last 20 years.
Well that didn’t take long…..just a couple days ago I was saying that Venezuela was heading for a political crisis as the great success (sarc) of its home grown socialism was finally coming home to roost.
And tonight I read that the leader of the opposition has been assassinated with a bullet to the head after a drive to oust President Maduro from power garners a petition signed by 10% of the adult population…. in just one short week.
That’s right…..One week. That was how long it took the opposition to gather almost 2 million names on a petition to trigger a vote of non-confidence in the Leader. And as history is our only guide the outcome was predictable. One of the leaders of the opposition has now been denied the chance to take Maduro’s place by being murdered in cold blood.
Like I suggested in an earlier post; this is going to be a long hot summer in Caracas. And with the President himself now calling for “rebellion” by his supporters it seems a civil war may not be so far off after all.
Venezuelan Opposition Leader Assassinated Days After 1.8 Million Sign Petition To Oust Maduro — ZeroHedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-08/venezuelan-opposition-leader-assassinated-days-after-18-million-sign-petition-oust-m
Just what Dr C.I.A ordered…..the .01 percenters are licking their chops!
Mr. Chartster,
I can’t possibly imagine that anything will become of this. The Demonrats have hooked their wagon to Shillary. The special interests and foreign gooberments have hundreds of millions invested in her. It’s too late to pull the plug now.
My prediction is the FBI case quietly goes away or if it is sent to the AG it will be after the election where it will die.
Ebolan,
It’s only fitting to let them spend their money on Hitlery, before they expose her. She won’t be president. The world is changing, the Clinton’s and Bush’s are old relics of the cabal era that is soon to be over. The pendulum has swung on the truth movement, it can’t be stopped now.
I certainly hope not Chartster
I agree…but because Obummer will punt the U.S. Justice Department and the FBI will be shutdown.
Trump an actor? That’s what they kept saying about Reagan.
China crashing?
Well according to the nice people at ZH the Asian giants stock markets just turned in an ugly color of blood red as a report was issued by the Chinese government saying they would not intervene further to prop up markets and that nothing more than a flat recovery for the economy was expected.
And commodities crashed. And so did stocks.
Hey Bob, now is a good time to go look at those ETF’s called Yin and Yang that track the Shanghai. This may be the last leg down for the equity bubble that formed in China since 2014 and if it is there is another 15% or so to go on the downside before major support comes in (not trading advice of course).
Since the indices there are already down 7% in two trading days then a follow up of that magnitude (15% more) would constitute a crash if there is carry through this week. And that means that commodities are going to get murdered (including gold.)
Oh look….gold is already down 14 dollars at this early hour. Copper is getting slammed to the pavement. What a surprise.
China’s Crashing – Stocks, Commodities Plunge After “Top Authority” Implies “Abandoning Loose Policy”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-09/chinas-crashing-stocks-commodities-plunge-after-top-authority-implies-abandoning-loo
Anybody here thinking that this dip in the SHCOMP and other China exchanges is just a passing event and might not amount to much had better go and take a hard look at the long term chart now.
Just a cursory examination and you can see that they have most likely embarked on the last leg down from the bubble that began in 2014. This one will take the Shanghai all the way back to the 2400 region.
So a big heads up. If we see a China crash there will be repercussions.
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX — (Click on the Interactive Chart for a better look.)
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=SHI:SHH
There are etfs called Yin and Yang for China? LOL.
You bet Bob. Yang is on the list I sent you of inverse ETF’s. Have a look on the one year chart. See that beautiful intersection of the 200 SMA, Bollinger and price? This one was a slam dunk buy last Friday in my books.
It warns of trouble brewing in China and a fairly large drop is coming (by my reading). And that can translate (not always..but sometimes) into drops in US and European equities which is the reason I watch it. Interestingly enough, I knew by the chart BEFORE the news came out this morning that this would be turning down. So technicals do pay off.
Ask Doc. He cleaned up trading this vehicle last year.
Anyway, watch it in the premarket or when NY opens. It should be moving today anticipating a further drop in China shares tomorrow or through the week. The Shanghai chart has just turned ugly and I feel certain this final leg lower will take us right back to 2014 prices.
Maybe “sell in May and go away” is actually a Chinese proverb now.
YANG Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X ETF – One Year Chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=YANG+Interactive#{%22lineWidth%22:%222%22,%22showBollinger%22:true,%22bollingerUpperColor%22:%22#38761d%22,%22bollingerLowerColor%22:%22#38761d%22,%22showSma%22:true,%22smaColors%22:%22#cc0000%22,%22smaPeriods%22:%22200%22,%22smaWidths%22:%221%22,%22smaGhosting%22:%220%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Sorry for the confusion Bob. I was reading off a gold chart (!) when I posted that note above. Holy crow, my mind is really slipping. But I just got out of bed so I have a good excuse. Never mind….just watch it anyway and then go check YIN afterwards.
Thanks Bird – always wondered what Doc was using to short China.
If China goes down then it should take down London, Europe and the US due to so much trade being down by companies on those indexes with China. London especially due to all the copper and iron miners – some of those have gone up 300% and 400% since the start of the year. Perhaps they will now give most or all of that back?
Oz should also be affected for similar reasons.
I might be dipping a toe into YANG today. Might do some DUST also but it sees how they pump gold later. Maybe this is the week that the Commercials in gold get proved right.
The big drops we saw begin in August and December 2015 for the S&P are in the identical time frames as two of the large legs down in the China markets. But the Shanghai plunge in June 2015 barely made a ripple elsewhere.
So two out of three times in the last 12 months what happened in China did not stay in China. Odds are fair that if things crack over there now it favours a correction on our side too.
That is, assuming their correction continues. And well…lets face it…the indices in the US and Europe look dismal and ready for a fall. So perhaps that rolling top pattern is going to be meaningful after all.
But the good news (yes, there is good news) is that some Chinese shares will again be in the bargain bin and a bottom may even be in sight for them. So it may be a better time to organize a buy list than play games trying to short it.
PS Bob, we cannot assume too much just yet. The VIX is actually falling right now. We need more information. It is interesting though that the Ozzie dollar has dropped so much. It has likely anticipated the correction in Asian shares.
Good points Birdman.
Did BABU ever recover? What was that Chinese Google or Facebook company? Never mind, the ownership of Chinese shares re foreigners would make me avoid buying. But those etfs look interesting.
Actually, more interested in the affects on Western markets. As you say, this might be enough to roll over the US markets and take down London and Europe along also.
I do think that we need a good couple of hundred points drop in the S&P before there would be any energy for the S&P to go to new highs. It feels knackered at the moment.
Sure, here is the chart for Baidu. It is US listed (NASDAQ) by the way and those are the Chinese shares I refer too. Playing Chinese markets directly is limited to the ETF’s
BAIDU -(BIDU) 5 year chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BIDU+Interactive#{%22lineWidth%22:%222%22,%22showBollinger%22:true,%22bollingerUpperColor%22:%22#38761d%22,%22bollingerLowerColor%22:%22#38761d%22,%22showSma%22:true,%22smaColors%22:%22#cc0000%22,%22smaPeriods%22:%22200%22,%22smaWidths%22:%221%22,%22smaGhosting%22:%220%22,%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Ah, BAIDU – I remember that I was looking to buy into that when it was mid 90s but all the talk about Chinese share ownership put me off. Thanks for the chart – I can see that one coming back down to below $100 in any Chinese crash of, say, another 400 point drop in Shanghai.
Bizarrely, London is up slightly but I thought it would be down considering all the copper and iron miners on the FTSE.
Yeah, those copper miners up so much was pure damned speculation in my books. Same deal with the ones like TCK and FCX that I watch over here. But look at the copper chart Bob. It is doing its best to trace out a large double top and to my eyes copper is headed back to sub 2.00 dollar area.
And why not. China is hardly booming anymore. There is no justification in copper rising right now except that spec fever with metals was in play. This is just one more reason that all the PM’s are set to fall back.
I am watching for TCK and FCX to fall below their 50 and 200 day marks. That could happen in just a few days time. So its down she goes!
FINIZ.com futures — Copper Chart – Daily
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=d1
It has been painful watching TCK, FCX, Anglo American, BHP, Glencore, etc, etc, this year as I totally missed the boat after watching them all diligently throughout 2015.
It was all speculation and the banks propping up their own potential bad loans to these companies IMPO that drove up both the oil price and the metal prices.
The price of copper did not really increase all that much compared to how massively the above mentioned companies went up. OK, lots of them benefitted from oil going up also but the copper rally – can you really call it a rally – was nothing to write home about.
Yep, looks like it has double topped to me and is heading back down to below 2.00 bucks.
I think the penny will soon drop on oil also. The hawks are very much in charge in Saudi now and I can see them doing everything possible to drive the oil price back down towards 30 – and lower if they can.
Hopefully you caught my error on the YANG chart Bob. Price is already at the upper Bollinger band so the ETF is not confirming a break higher (eg falling stocks in China). I was trying to explain I was reading a gold chart when I wrote that post but hopefully you have got my meaning by now.
Yep, I got what you meant.
One of my ASX listed free spins was up 50% intra day yet again…..so I trimmed again.
The gift that keeps on giving.
Good work Skeeta. Looks like we are finally making progress on gold today. Down almost 18 dollars so far. Sure would be nice if it broke 1271 before the day ends.
Gold should keep falling until 1267…1268 area before we get a bounce by my reckoning.
Dam yes! Gold just spiked down to 1268.10
Am I good or what? Looks like we might consolidate right around this zone and then get a bounce back.
….or not.
I can live with a 30 dollar morning decline. Thank you very much!
Well, they pumped up futures and oil despite China.
Apparently getting rid of the dovish Saudi oil minister and replacing him with a more hawkish line is somehow bullish for oil. Go figure.
Oil is almost on the door of turning negative. Silver finally getting the message and playing catch up to gold which is down over 20 dollars now as platinum, palladium and copper join in the morning splatt-fest. So great news!!!
Check out this article about the Yen (Yen drives gold as you know). This might be the real story behind the future of gold we need to pay attention too. If the so-called “Soros chart” is correct then the Yen will be weakening against the dollar. Possibly substantially and for an extended period of time. And where the Yen goes….
Anyway, have a look if you are curious.
Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen — Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-08/soros-chart-signals-boj-bond-buying-already-enough-to-weaken-yen
You got your $30 drop Bird. Looks like consolidation or a bounce is happening at about 1263.
I have no idea how much so Im leaving it alone, not much action in shares I watch anyway.
Maybe we get better buying opportunity in the summer.
In any case, another good call.(took long enough tho,lol)
Hey, I am doing my best here! 🙂
Looks like lots of upside yet for JDST today. Less than 5 million shares have moved and its only 10:00 AM but it hardly begins to reflect the damage done to gold this morning. Same with DUST. The market is catching on slowly.
Must be disbelief.
Bird:
Where did you get the 96% you refer to here. If it’s accurate, you just nailed the top. For now.
Anyway Skeeta, I am on pretty firm ground saying that very few miners are hedging production and one way of knowing that is because sentiment for the outlook on gold and miners is at nosebleed levels. It was an astonishing 96% last week.
Sentiment Trader, Bob.
https://sentimentrader.com/service/
The only thing is the market is not quite buying it yet. Gold has also formed a falling megaphone and perhaps that is why. Volumes are too low on the ETF’s for this kind of drop in gold…..and right now it looks like plenty of guys are buying the dip!!!!
Guess i will have to be right on more than a few days before it sticks.
PS: It was mentioned by Gary two weeks back. So I subscribed.
Sentimentrader.com……….looks like a good site ………..at first glance….thanks…J
CONSTANTINE ANNOUNCES PLANS AND BUDGET FOR 2016
PALMER COPPER-ZINC-SILVER-GOLD PROJECT
http://constantinemetals.com/news/index.php?&content_id=238
It’s always nice to put other people’s money to work.
DANG………Silver under $17……..another knife fight……
Al . . . please tell Jeff Deist to stop smoking crack . . .
Phil,
At this time I disagree with much of what he wrote.
Surely the USD rising to the 97 / 98 area would be deterimental for gold, silver and the other base metal commodities?
I think a Yuan devaluation is very much on the cards this year but even if it does not happen then an already strengthening USD should see the PMs drop significantly sooner than later IMPO.