Addressing some of the lies about gold investing
Here is the latest article by Avi as posted on Gold-Eagle.com. In this article Avi takes on a number of “reasons” gold perma-bulls provide for why one should be investing in gold. We have all heard these reasons and at some points probably took them to heart. The problem always lies with getting to emotional about any investment and firmly believing that the whole investing world will one day turn to the one and only – Gold!
I always like to hear what you all think of these articles Avi writes.
…
The Lies You Are Told About Gold
For the last 5 years, most were caught on the wrong side of the gold market. As gold was topping in 2011, most market participants, and analysts alike, were caught looking the wrong way. Most were uber-bullish when the market was topping, and remained so almost the entire way down.
Why did so many get it wrong in 2011? Why did most get it wrong for the last 4 years? Because most market participants and analysts do not understand gold. Feel free to read that again: most market participants and analysts do not understand gold. And, worse yet, most have bought into or sell you on the lies and fallacies about gold and are not burdened by the true facts presented through our recent history.
Click here to read the full posting over at Gold-Eagle.
You Are Being Sold Lies
Just recently, I read the following in an article on Gold-Eagle.com:
“Gold is the final safe haven left to securely invest in which has stood the test of time over thousands of years. It has maintained its’ value throughout at least the last five thousand years. The sudden and most recent ‘break out’ in gold is proof that its’ safe-haven status is still intact. The price of gold is rising more on the expectation of the next financial crisis. Imagine how high the price of gold could go when the real crisis impacts world economies.” (See the following link for complete article: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/price-gold-going-ballistic )
I want you to consider a couple of questions about this paragraph before we prove the faulty nature of such thinking. First, is gold really a “safe haven” from a financial crisis? If you are willing to remove your “gold-bug” blinders, you will soon see the answer is “no.” Second, how can anyone believe that the recent break out in gold is “proof of its safe haven status” when the equity markets have rallied alongside it? It’s a safe haven from what – a market rally? Do equity markets also rise on the “expectation of the next financial crisis?” Lastly, the final sentence of the above-quoted paragraph is nothing more than an emotionally charged play upon your fears, as well as your greed.
You mean differently than all the gold bugs who say “buy buy buy” each time gold moves?
No. I mean the fact that all you do is keep touting your own horn about how you called the top in 2011, like you were the only one to do it.
It was an extreme bubble that was hard to miss.
Don’t you have anything new to add instead of these kindergarten lessons you think keeping we need.
Of course gold and equities can rise and fall together, most people who are not comatose know that. We don’t need to be taught grammar school lessons from someone who frankly has nothing to back himself up with other than your constant repeating about how you called the top, over and over and over again.
I know you need to sell your service since,you can’t trade your way to success but it is getting very tiring.
James…ditto…the bears never stop….
“hard to miss?” WOW . . well, it is easy to say that after the fact. I am not sure if you actually were part of this market for the last 5 years . . . but the SIGNFICANT majority of the market would not agree that it was “hard to miss.” lol
Absolutely true Avi. I know people personally who still hold underwater gold stocks from back then. For what purpose? Why did they never sell? I never get any answers from them that are satisfying because they mix up all this garbage thinking in the process of rationalizing it all.
Bird, you can count on one hand the number of people who actually called that top in 2011, and still have fingers left over!! lol 🙂
Another excellent article Avi. Thanks for taking the time to write on a subject that drives me stark raving batty. It is the repetitious, brainwashed gold bugs who are the real manipulators, hands down.
And honestly, their anthems seem bred in the bone. Like some kind of program bound right in the DNA. Nothing it seems can change their views or their monotonous tune which only tells me they are irrational as a species. Who are these people anyway?
Certainly none of them took a course in logic at University. They just make no sense.
Thanks Bird. They don’t realize that they look at the market through narrow blinders, even though history tells them quite clearly they should open their eyes.
BTW – you may not like my next article explaining to Mr. Armstrong why he does not understand how QE works!! lol
Believe it or not but I am open minded. If you make a good case I will be a fair judge.
Start with this, and the next one will further address it.
OK
That was funny Avi. I didn’t read Armstrog or Gross, but you got QE wrong.. You also need a better understanding of what QE was. Just sayin.
Thanks for your thoughts Chartster, but I know the QE process quite well. Have an article coming out soon on it.
Avi,
If you knew the QE process well, you would know I with out any doubt that the stock exchange is going to tank. If I remember correctly, you think it has chances for new highs?
Anyway, I will wait for your article.
Chartster,
Your assumption that the Fed controls the market will be clearly seen as false by the entire market in the early 2020’s. Until then, people will continue along the lines that the Fed controls the market, and will be so badly burned by the Fed down the road, they will eventually call for the Fed to be eliminated.
But, again, if your perspective is that I don’t understand QE is due to my belief that the market will see much higher levels . . . well . . I have no clue about what I can answer you. Just mark my words . . . if you don’t believe me now, you will learn the hard way a few years from now.
Avi,
The fed won’t control the markets in 2020. There are good reasons for that, which I’m not going to discuss. However, I’m going to ask you a few questions that might give you a perspective you obviously are not seeing.
Why did the Dow go from 6,500 area in 2009 to 18,000 area in 2015? How could it go up in 09,10,11 and 2012 without some type of stimulus? Do you actually think Main Street funded the Dow during a major recession?!
I know the purpose of this. What is your thoughts on the purpose of this?
Corporations are doing trillions of dollars in buy-backs. Who and the hell do you think they are buying their stock back from?! Is it mom and friggin pop?! NO…. It’s the fed that the corps (pun intended) are buying back their stocks from! Because the fed gave them money to prop the market up during the downturn!
Do you wonder why the national debt went up during QE?! Do ya have a clue why now?
Do ya think the stock exchange is hitting new highs??! Do ya thing that one day soon all that vapor paper will start to unwind?!
..oh..no…the fed has nothing to do with the markets.. (Sarc)
Chartster,
Thank you for stating how the entire market views the Fed. But, the entire market is RARELY right. And, this may be the most painful lesson they learn, even more so than 2008. Mark my words.
First fall I have been part of this market for 17 years.
I started accumulating gold and silver when it was $252 and $4 respectively so don’t tell me about being in the market. I have following gold for al out two decades.
The significant majority of people who didn’t spot the bubble are the same crowd that always miss the wedding and show up for the funeral. This has nothing to do with gold. It is the same story over and over and over again no matter what the asset.
People never learn.
And yes with was easy to spot!
So, if it was so easy, I am sure you made a killing shorting the market as we did. Very nice!! 🙂
But, I suggest you should have a little more patience since the GREAT majority of the market does not see it as “clearly” as you do. My articles are meant for them. 🙂
James did not sell any at the top. He held on to all of it.
How could it not be hard to miss.
Look at a chart. Silver went a.most straight up.
Are you kidding me.
All you have to do is stick to basic things like 200 dma to know that.
You don’t need a Ph.D. In Elliot Wave
If your article safe meant for novices then I suggest you go hunting elsewhere.
The vast majority of people who contribute to this blog are beyond your grade school lessons, both bulls and bears alike.
Yes not only did I hold on to all of it and am buying more.
And you know why I am buying more?
Because I’ve made a killing other investments that affords me that luxury!
I would rather learn from what Birdman has to say, and others, then keep hearing your crap over and over again.
Where were you in 1999 when I was sending it in?
I would venture to guess trying to rub two nickels together trying to be somebody
James, I am sorry, but I cannot believe you. If you clearly saw that top coming, how would you not protect your long positions? Silver took a 75% hair cut . . . and you hold through that? Sorry buddy, but that does not add up to me, nor anyone else who understand that investing is all about price improvement.
But, then again, I guess that may be why your handle is James “the LESSER” 🙂
Have a wonderful day sir.
If Im not mistaken, James the lesser was one of the “less favored” for his thinking gold/silver was on its way down.(as Bird was)
As for holding physical, I am one missing a few brain cells I guess.
I bought up to about $30 silver, from about $4-$7, somewhere in there,I have some I paid more than that for, anyway, Im keeping it, but I dont need cash for it, everyones situation is differant.
I dont care what I paid for it, I wanted the silver/gold, just like I dont care what I paid for anything else I own, I own it because I wanted it.
PMs might be valueless, they might be worth more in dollar terms than they are now, we find out in time.
Amen, B
Amen is right.
We all do that bb. The Ex and I bought a painting one year. We were in Hawaii and saw this thing in a gallery and she was smitten with it. So we coughed up a couple thousand on impulse, had it put in a tube and shipped back home.
Dumbest thing we ever bought. It sat inside that shipping tube for the next 12 or 15 years. No idea anymore but I never looked at it even once, it didn’t get framed or hung on the wall either and eventually it was forgotten in a closet.
Some famous Hawaiian painter whose name I don’t know anymore…..but we just had to have it. How stupid was that? I honestly had not thought about it again until today. I suppose the Ex still has it.
And if I know her its still in the tube!
Everyone is different with how one manages one’s money/capital.
However, I will note that IF one agrees with the fact that precious metals are ALSO cyclical… then maybe it is somewhat wise to trim when one sees tops in place ?
As a side note, but on the similar frame of mind, I note that Rick Rule – curtesy of Bird who provided over the WE the link to his April interview on Palisade radio – hinted that he already expects gold to top in 2020-2022, and he hopes he’ll trim his holdings if that’s the case. Maybe he will be right… maybe not. Time will tell. But I subscribe to the methodology.
To me, I do not understand the point of holding to all of your capital when you see a cyclical top in an asset ?
But as I said upfront…everyone is different with how one manages one’s money/capital. And I will recall ourselves that one of the easiest ways to become more wealthy is a 2 stages process: 1) buy when things are cheap…. but do not forget about the 2) SELL things when they are expensive. Equities, Fixed income, Land, real estate, art….AND precious metals. There is, imho, no exception to this 2 stage rule.
My 2cts.
LPG
Now this is a man that makes A LOT of sense!!!
Makes great sense LPG! If you are like me there is just nothing worse than making great gains and then letting them slide away back to where you started without taking action. That always makes me feel like I made no progress and left money tied up for nothing. It happens to all of us. And usually we regret it afterwards because we can never seem to get that money back. Something else always happens instead. Like your focus changes or your life changes or there is a marriage or divorce and that old trade just never happens the same way twice.
Concerning 2020, thats been my thinking for years, I expect to begin selling about then.
But Im a horrible trader, if I even attempted to trade m physical, I have no doubt I would shorten my stack.
LPG..I’ve seen several cyclical tops in assets and I haven’t sold simply because I didn’t want to. I own it and I’ll hold regardless of the price swings until I no longer want it. I have a Mercedes SL convertible that has quadrupled in value and has reached its peak in price several times. I keep it because I want it regardless of the price swings. Same with the metals. I have held through tops and bottoms and won’t sell because I want it. I really get tired of Avi and Bird berating those that choose to hold the metals for whatever reason and keep telling them they are fools to do so. What right to they have to tell a person they should get out of metals because they are going to decline? It is each individuals choice as to what to do with their assets whether the price is up or down. Ease up on the “sell or you are a fool” comments. Nothing here pointed at you LPG and I appreciate your posts. I too have been in the metals market for 50 years. I experienced the good old days of open outcry and market driven prices to the current computerized trading and manipulated prices. I would much rather go back in time.
I agree………..ease up on the “sell or you are a fool”
Jerry, Gator is putting words in my mouth.
I NEVER said that you should sell your gold or your silver. Honestly I don’t care what any of you guys do with your stuff and its not my business. What I dislike about the gold community and its “stacking” philosophy is that its basically a cult.
Most of you guys have an Armageddon philosophy, hate all government, see conspiracy at every turn and are prepping for financial survival against the most unlikely adversaries.
Like the Chinese…or the Russians…or FEMA….or Donald and Hillary!
So keep your damn gold at any price. Just don’t try to convince me of its merits because I have seen enough and already know its not worth the trouble to buy, store or try to spend / trade. You can’t even show it off to friends at a party or word will leak out and next thing your house is broken into.
A complete waste of time and energy. That’s why I only trade anymore online.
Hello Bird, …….ease up. It is only an investment. Some like to have the metal in different forms. No problem with if , you like to trade the paper. Best.
Ease up? Let me repeat myself from above. Gator is putting words in my mouth that I never said and I really don’t care what any of you guys do with your stuff as its not my business.
Please read the post and stop bothering me about it.
“what I dislike about the gold community?
“Most of you guys have an Armageddon philosophy”?
“already know its not worth the trouble to buy, store or try to spend”?
“you cant even show it off”?
“A complete waste of time”?
The above would be classified as ………….EASE UP………………BEST
“stop bothering me”…………..sorry you wrote to me.
No problem besides,,,,,,I was really directing my comment to the OTHER GUY.
Catch you later, have a great day………..”)
Or take it Easy…………….. 🙂
It’s called personal opinion. You have one too. Silence your own.
Freedom of speech…………bug off………
Now you’re talking my language!
Good one………. funny………… and a good ending…. 🙂
You are one interesting guy, Gator
I happen to completely agree with you. Witness my 13 year old BMW convertible with 62 K miles and our second generation gold, silver and coins!
Gator……is always interesting…………..
Hello Gator,
Hope all is well.
I found your post TRULY valuable. Really. Bfirst of all because it was, imho, totally honest.
But my take on it is that your post and my post come from different worlds – and this is not a judgement, there is no right or wrong. But they CANNOT be compared. Lemme elaborate briefly.
You wrote “i own it and I’ll hold regardless of the price swings until I no longer want it”. I totally accept that “argument”. Totally. HOWEVER, we have to agree that with that “argument”/justification, you are:
1) in the universe of the “emotion” (you have something because you want it)
2) you are more likely in the domain of the “discretionnary spending” rather than investing.
And again, i am not judging here.
To me, managing money/capital is about assessing risk profiles. And allocating capitals accordingly. In other words, it is more about calculus, than emotion.
If tomorrow i buy myself something and say “i’ll keep it until i have enough of it”, although it does classify as a money/capital expense, it does not, at least for me, classify as a money/capital management decision. Hope I am getting understood.
So again, to me, your view point on gold (to take this particular case) and my investment views, under this angle, are not debatable. Because there is nothing to debate from an investment standpoint.
You are on the emotional side, and i am on the calculus side. And my comment stays wether i am bearish, bullish or neutral on gold: it does not matter. Our reason for holding it come from 2 different parts of the body -literally.
The point i tried to make in my previous post was that IFFFFF someone acknowledges the cyclicality of an investment – be it gold or not, but we have to put ourselves in the framework of money management/capital allocatio/investing – THEN one should try to trim when one thinks (cyclical) tops are in place. This is all what i wanted to say, from an investment approach standpoint.
So again, thanks for your post Gator. And again, i reiterate that to me, your reason and my reason for owning gold come from 2 different universes. And i truly respect yours. I just do not think that based on your reason, there is anything for me to “debate”/discuss.
Hope my point will come across clearly.
Best to you,
LPG
BTW….you should have sold at the top. You won’t be able to recover your investment for many more years yet. Both gold and silver are in a downward trend and have not yet ended their secular bear.
After that there will be a long period of consolidation. Nobody else here will tell you that but I will because my charts are just better. And there is a good reason I won’t invest in metals at these prices.
My bottom target price is closer to 9.50 than 10.00 dollars just so you know.
Doc is wrong that this year is a turning point for the metals. At most we could see a bounce that carries through to the low 20’s but even that looks unlikely now as spec fever rose too high too fast and killed the chart.
Your probly right Bird.
When I first decided to keep an amount of PMs (5% of investable income) I figured the payoff began around 2020.
I could be wrong, wouldnt be the first time.
Gotta spike up again sooner or later.
One unintended consequence for me, I bought a bunch of pre 1920 Canadian coins, they are .925
the 5 cent pce is 1 gram, couldnt find any 1 gram silver anywhere else.
Anyway, cant really get them off ebay anymore, not in the quantity I could at the time.
So, the unintended consequence, is that for numismatic value is 5x+ what I paid in silver value at the time.
Just funny.
The other benifit, kinda neat, is I can give to grandkids, neices nefews kids etc
a 19?? coin along with a hundred years later 20?? maple leaf.
Those kids really think thats cool.
Call me crazy:
Gold has been ingrained in our psychy from the lost civilizations of the ancients.
Was gold the conductor of the Earth energy?
We do not fully understand this technology yet,but we are moving ever closer to the understanding.
Once we obtain the technology of the ancient’s,the true mystique of gold will be revealed.
John K, you’re correct. PMs were transported here via meteorites over millions of years. I’ve heard there are uses that we can’t comprehend, and humans are stacking gold for other beings without knowing a thing.
But it’s ok, I’ll keep stacking for them😏
Yes Chris, some of those balls in the sky actually do have life.
To funny Chartster.
I still have my wheelbarrow order in with Chris for the one that matches my tinfoil hat.
My handle is James the lesser because I’ve found ONE THING to true in speculating and investing.
Those who boast are either trying to impress bimbos or beginners.
So who are you trying to impress and get over on?
Good luck to you James.
You’ve done nothing but boast over and over and over about calling the top.
It’s old.
You obviously have nothing new to add, other than inane articles that you think pass for brilliance
What does that say about you who comes back to read over and over? 🙂
Have a good day James . . time to move on.
The top was not difficult to see IMO, I got out around $46 silver. Why can’t you look at a 7000 year chart of gold and see it clearly is in an uptrend and just consolidated some serious gains. It’s what markets do
Then look at 200 year chart of the equity markets . . its in the same uptrend!! Get the point?
Problem is everyone believes gold is only going up and equity markets only go down.
I’m not really sure who only believes that.
I didn’t say equities are going down. Yes, increased productivity, technology, expanding markets, and inflation will cause valutaions to rise. I think both equities and gold will continue to rise with continued … productivity, technology and inflation until something breaks. I don’t think you should assume everyone is in the same boat
First of all I don’t read YOUR articles over and over.
I have nothing to gain except the amusement value.
“Problem is everyone believes gold is only going up and equity markets only go down.”
– your words
Are you kidding me?
Everyone? really?
You said everyone.
Where you are coming from.
I would say this blog is pretty evenly divided by gold Bulls and gold bears, likewise equities.
So to say everyone is compete nonsense
I have to clue you on on something.
No one voted you class teacher to instruct babes.
90% of the people on this blog can teach you
Thank you for your enlightening post . . again, PLEASE have a good day and move on.
James, you have made your point. There is nothing more to add. Welcome to my world!
Al what is the point of this?
No Al, I think you made your point. That is the crux of the matter isn’t it.
This is getting pretty funny actually. It s crazy day all round.
When you throw in US politics, it gets even worse. I was never crazy about Mondays!
Please help me out Dave, to which point are you referring?
Thanks!
I believe that you are referring to the exchange regarding Avi. No, we do not get a kick out of it and that is why I made a comment to James.
Everyone boosts about calling the top, my question is, did anyone call the bottom? I personally think the bottom is in, doesn’t mean I am right, but if this bottom holds, I wonder if anyone actually called it. And I mean publicly called it, do you know of anyone that has?
John, We have a HUGE “buy buy buy” box on our charts that had us buying at the bottom in silver, GDX and GLD. We began buying individual miners back in September of 2015, when we opened our miners portfolio:
These were some of our initial buys:
SA on 9/16 at 5.81
RIC on 9/16 at 2.59
ABX on 10/23 at 7.64
I bought in September and October, and December (only mining shares though), that doesn’t mean I called the bottom, (in fact I wish I bought more). I meant calling a bottom, I don’t subscribe to your service so you may have to subscribers, but publicly you didn’t call a bottom at least from my recollection. I do follow all of your public articles and what not. But anyway Avi, do you think we reached a bottom yet, or is my post going to be an after thought in a year or so?
Seabridge thats a trading vehicle, so props to you on that trade. Richmont, that is a good company, so I am guessing that might be an investment, good share structure, good economical project, so I am leaning towards investment, but its tight share structure makes it a good trade. Your last one is Barrick, so I am going to give you benefit of the doubt because your good at what you do, that is a trade and not an investment. So props to you Avi, nice calls.
Sure John, I called the bottom right here on this site and gave an upside target of 1220 dollars which was achieved in a little more than 60 days. It is not however the final bottom so maybe that does not count.
I also called the top in gold on this recent run and had an initial estimate of a 30 dollar decline which we say yesterday. I am certain that top will hold although we never know for sure so I guess I can’t really claim victory until we drop a little further.
So you called a short term bottom, but in your opinion this isn’t the final bottom. Well fair enough. Congrats on the short term trade Birdman.
I heard there was a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines waiting for this pullback we shall see.
Lewis,
1 word: PLENTY.
Pick your stocks, pick your levels. The lower, the better.
Best,
LPG
If you read the charts on margin, Lewis…there is NO money on the sidelines at all.
Bird,
Given discussions I have w. some money managers, fwiw, I would respectfully – totally – disagree w. you.
Luv’
LPG
LPG, that’s the whole point, everyone is fully invested to the point they are using other peoples money. That’s what margin is all about and the margin account levels are high.
Secondly, in an economy like ours that is driven by credit most people are not even saving. I am not talking about poor people here either. This whole “money on the sidelines” idea is a big myth. I have been hearing this same story for years and years and it never results in anything.
Certainly not for the gold sector. It’s just talk.
Always the same drama when Avi Gilburt shares his thoughts,thats odd.
Corey or Al must get a big kick out of it. Why else do they post a link.
Tells you a lot huh.
Big kick out of what, Dave?
He can be a bit boastful, Pete.
Avi claims gains of 400% using his service. That is for sure a LIE.
Avi destroyed his own credibility with that outlandish claim.
And he followed this by his toxic, nasty attacks on the members of this forum.
Anyone who was dared to question him was a target.
You are your own worst enemy Avi.
Chris, I am not sure the point you are trying to make, since my claim was 100% accurate, and not a lie.
Moreover, I am not sure why you have a bone to pick with me, as I am providing you FREE information and analysis. If you don’t like it . . . don’t read it. But, do not besmirch my name or my credibility with your lies.
Everyone invested in gold or miners is having a bad day today Avi. Probably not the best day to engage with fights since the mood is already pretty sour and no amount of extra words will make any of it better.
Bird,
It’s funny… I’ve kind of had this feeling as well that when the sector is down, some of us are more “tense” 🙂
Interesting how a bit of daily noise can swing some people’s mood on the bad side, isn’t it ?
LPG
Not us bird . . we hedged our longs on Friday!!
Me either. I went outright short on everything I follow. Gold, silver, miners, crude, Canadian dollars etc. and its paying off so I am a happy camper and hope to be a lot better off if this trend continues.
Chris in Philippines,
For the sake of your own credibility (if you care about it), I humbly suggest go to Avi’s website, subscribe to his service for a 2 weeks free trial – you don’t need to put any card detail – and see the track record of the trades by yourself.
THEN you will be able to provide valuable comments, based on facts – not your fantasy. In other word… please act/comment as a responsible person. Not out of bitter ignorance.
Avi is one of the best best best guys out there with his calls, imho. If you can’t see it, it means you’re probably not paying attention.
Does it mean he gets everything right ? Of course not ! And he doesn’t pretend he does. But as far as keeping you out of trouble and helping you maximize your bucks, he’s one of the best out there, imho.
I am not sure KER gains anything valuable from this constant, baseless/groundless whining about him.
So if we could please elevate the level/quality of comments sometimes, that would be GREATLY appreciated by some of us AND, more importantly, beneficial to KEREPORT.
As a side note, I feel we owe it to Big Al.
LPG
Thanks LPG!!
I do not believe him. It’s not personal. Me thinks thou protest too much.
Chris in Philippines,
To write that you do not believe someone and to write that what someone says “is for sure a LIE” are 2 very different things.
I have no issue that you don’t believe Avi. That is your issue, not mine.
But i, fwiw, have a serious issue with ANYONE writing on KER that something written by someone (Avi or whoever else) is a LIE without bringing evidence of it. I have an issue with that type of attitude.
This, in my world, is the reflection of a total disrepect for other readers. Writing things you cannot back up is a waste of your time and of my time. So let us all act like responsible people: if you think something or someone is a scam/liar, please bring the evidence. Others will appreciate you for that, believe me – me first.
What bothers me even more is that you could have the intellectual honesty to go to Avi’s site, get a free trial and check all his trades track record for yourself and come back to us, maybe, with updated views. You could have come back to us based on facts. Not on groundless, useless, sterile whinning.
I really have nothing against you Chris. I am just not impressed by your attitude on this one, as i don’t think it brought anything valuable to KER, that’s all. And I’m sure you can bring more value to the site and the community Big Al has created over the years.
LPG
Well said LPG. I agree that it is fine to disagree with someone’s point of view, but to say someone is lying, but not provide any evidence to back it up is a bit insulting to anyone. In addition, to deny the free opportunity to go and verify the returns that have been mentioned, and do the necessary homework to fact check or confirm a claim is just intellectual laziness after calling them out as a liar, and doesn’t serve anyone here or anywhere.
Glad we see things the same way Shad.
Best as always and GL for the rest of the week,
LPG
You as well sir.
Birdman, always good to hear from you.
On the contrary I am not having a bad day.
If you remember I mentioned I couldn’t buy NUGT at 50 when I wanted to because my broker didn’t handle that stock. I watched it go all the way up to 128. That was tough to see. Now I have a new account funded and am loaded for bear.
So the pullback is actually a welcome sight.
Regarding Avi, the problem is he seems to think everyone here is in grade school and we need lessons from him.
If he wants to tout his services that his business. But his constant attitude of superiority and talking down to the students is getting disrespectful to say the least.
Anyone who has to keep repeating over and over and over again how he called the top is either very insecure or trying to sell you something.
Like I said I’ve seen it over and over again.
He is trying to impress bimbos or beginners
Wow man.
Really?
You really should take a chill pill and relax.
AVI and BIRD !!!!!!! Can’t you ???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbjVJTfugLY
Avi I agree with you, I was one that when I started trading I thought gold was money and miners was money in the ground. We was told that money printing would cause inflation and gold would be our only protection. I was trading with my lump sum retirement money. I made more money than I had ever dreamed about after working for a company for years, this was in 2008 and 09 and I did not know how fast you could louse money. I got in trouble with the irs had to sell miners at a loss to pay taxes. Had I not started to listen to people like Larry Edelson I would have lost it all. I am still learning. Most of the people I retired with that left their retirement with a money manager have used it all up. Like Larry says gold sometimes trades like money and sometimes trades like any natural resources. Avi keep telling people to listen to people that agree with you and people that do not. Some on this site are great traders, some do it for a living and some are just trying to learn.
Bank sukker !
How much people suffer and are robed bye diss banking system !
Thanks for telling your story Doug. We are discussing people just like you who have been badly hurt by the metal-pumpers and all their manipulative lies. I am always very sorry to hear a story like yours but in truth there are so many others.
And it is not as if doing due diligence is easy when it comes to gold. For each person objecting there are more than a hundred pushing the gold agenda. Just ask me…I have been completely alone at times against an onslaught of lies, ignorance and mythology perpetuated by people who are ordinarily intelligent but seem to have zero ability to process information when the word “gold” enters the room.
Or who know what they are doing but are trying to sell their twisted, manipulative ideas to others. This business is all about speculation and greed though. And people like you are the fuel to keep the machine running.
Thank you Birdman I value your information. I am doing ok in the market now, I have diversified into dividend stocks, etfs and closed end funds.I like the ones now that deal in the mlps space they got knocked down with energy more than they should have. When they have been paying good dividends for years and you can get them for almost haft price you double the div. with some up side when energy recovers. I watch the cycles in gold am not that much into them now.
Anytime Doug. As long as you know gold is a pure speculation you won’t get caught. That just means you need to sell it when the price is to your liking and don’t fall for all the hype.
Anyone that preaches over and over how they want to “help” people and that their motives are altruistic is hiding something. This is why I don;t trust you.
You jumped the shark with that 400% claim. Gary Savage shot that claim full of holes.
Then don’t read me. But, the proof is in the pudding, and all the trades are listed on my site.
And, PUHLEASE don’t get me started on Savage.
I wish you BOTH luck . . you will need it.
Not Sur the Gary did, Chris.
Avi, I am really interested in your definition of gold bug. Is everyone who have a long term gold position a gold bug? Are women all gold bugs? If I have most asset in other areas, am I still a gold bug? Please clarify.
If I am bullish on gold because I see central banks printing money like crazy, does it make me a gold bug simply because I think logically?
Absolutely not, Dragonite
I just don’t like people to use words like gold bug because it is very subjective and carries no definite meaning. People like Avi and Birdman use it all the time and when I ask them for a definition, they became silent. I would rather they use term like perma bulls which at least more targeted and less offensive.
OK Lawrence. I won’t call you a bug. Actually, if I want to listen to *real* bugs I have to go to other sites anymore since most of the people who come here are investors and not that idiot class who mixes Armageddon, end of the money system, prepping and “gold is money” philosophy with the ideas of buying and selling for profit.
Honestly, most discussions with that group we call “bugs” is a complete waste of energy. They just keep saying the same thing over and over again without thinking. Like talking to a broken TV or something.
It used a a pejorative. Not very classy on his part.
Avi – did you call the top in oil and predict how far it fell? I keep hearing about the top in gold but I’ve never heard about your top call and plunge in oil?
Yes, we caught the top. But, I had a disagreement with my other analyst who tracks oil . . he thought we would get to the 27 region, and I did not think we would fall quite that far. He was right, but we definitely caught the top and were both expecting a decline of a minimum of 50% from the high.
If you lived around the time of Weimar’s Germany, what would you have rather had, gold or marks? Gold would have protected your behind, Safe haven? Call it want you want to, but it can and has protected people from at least one type of financial crisis.
That’s the thing CMC..we need to time travel back in history to make gold valuable. But in the present its just a pretty rock.
History repeats. Pretty rock today. Life saver tomorrow. Gold is a safe haven when confidence in paper money is shot. So, I don’t agree that gold is never a safe haven. History proves otherwise.
We are not inflating so there is no point owning it yet. At this time we are still entering a very substantial global deflation that you will know by the numbers of bankruptcies and state defaults.
When pensions, countries, large companies and cities go bust we will have arrived. That is all still coming though and when it gets here gold will be cheaper than it is today. For reference you need only look at what happened to silver during the depression (gold is not a good example because it was subjected to confiscation).
Silver is of course a monetary metal and had been for ages so it is the best analog we have to how precious metals behaved absent government edict. In just a few words, it crashed in price (inflation adjusted terms) even while it held buying power.
It did not soar in value as the metals camp might have you believe.
Anyway, without getting long winded….gold is going down. It is going to fall quite a bit actually unless it is incorporated into a new global currency that is yet not named. So buy the pet rock and put it in your sock drawer but don’t bank on it going to the moon anytime soon.
Because it is only a spec play and the charts say that it still has a long way to fall.
I agree with all of that, Birdman. It’s just that Avi shouldn’t make blanket statements like gold is not a safe haven against financial crisis, especially if the motive is to teach people something. When I see that, I feel compelled to speak up since people should be as informed as possible. Okay, it’s not always a safe haven, but it can be. Yeah, you can lose your wealth holding it.
What is kind of funny CMC is that I live in Africa and of all the people on this site it would be me who needs to keep insurance in the form of precious metals. We have inflation rates over here that can vary from 10 to 100 percent depending on the country and year.
But keeping and using PM coins does not actually work in practice.
Shops still want paper money and the preferred currency is US Dollars over the local variants, hands down. I know this because we did have a few coins and I tried to use them. That just brought blank stares.
The shop keepers that are better informed will just tell you to take the stuff to a coin dealer or jeweler and once there you get scalped for almost 50% of the value when you sell because its all scrap to them.
So i don’t bother anymore. If i wanted to store wealth in a liquid format for inflation protection I would keep imported alcohol. Right now there is a trade in Russian Vodka because the Ruble was so beaten down. Those bottles match the inflation rates fairly precisely and there is always ready demand if you need to unload a case or two.
The other thing people were doing here was hoarding fuels although that is not working out so well the past year or more. Other than that the best defense against inflation is to spend as fast as you can and keep plenty of popular imported goods handy.
Coffee Mate and Nescafe work just fine. The Hotels are always short at the right price.
Al,
Next time you have Avi on your show, could you ask him to talk more about how he uses puts and calls on his long term positions to hedge risk? I am particularly interested in whether he sells calls, buys puts and the option term and the strike price in relation to the underlying security price.
Thanks,
Chuck
Not for nothing but you sound like a broken record.
You repeat the same dribble over and over again.